2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[mercian]

May 9, 2024 22:36:20 GMT steve said:

mercian

Unfortunately your comment about average growth rates simply isn't true.

Excluding the banker international crisis of 2009-10 and covid the UK GDP growth rate from 2000 to 2009 was consistently higher than 2010 to 2019.
Growth rate in the UK economy since 2016 is consistently lower than at any time in the last 50 years.

Well firstly I just showed a link to ONS figures. I can't be bothered to work out the exact figures tonight but just looking at the link I posted the graph shows a pretty consistent pattern apart from the years you mention all the way back to 1949 albeit with a bit of up and down from year to year.  

BTW, warning to all : My security system flagged up a virus on this site a few minutes ago. I think I'm in the clear but I suggest you all run some sort of anti-virus scan if you can.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

From the Telegraph: News about Sir Kier!!


“Sir Keir Starmer will vow on Friday to use terror laws to tackle the small boats crisis, as part of plans to work more closely with Europe to combat people smugglers.

The Labour leader will announce plans to scrap the Rwanda scheme and use the money to create a border security command with new powers to treat people smugglers like terrorists.

He will use a speech in the Dover constituency of Natalie Elphicke, the Tory MP who defected to Labour on Wednesday, to argue for greater European cooperation on immigration and to try to counter Conservative claims that Labour has no plan to stop the boats.

His proposals have been backed by Neil Basu, the former Metropolitan Police assistant commissioner and the head of UK counter-terrorism policing from 2018 to 2021, who advised Labour on the plan.

In an article in The Telegraph, the former Met assistant commissioner claimed the proposals could make a “huge difference” as he branded the Government’s Rwanda scheme a “grossly expensive” gamble with taxpayers’ money without any evidence that it would work.”

and the Guardian Analysis

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/09/starmers-home-office-immigration-plan-does-not-answer-call-for-safe-routes

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

And… more from the DT:

“Dominic Cummings has unveiled plans for a new “Start-Up Party” which he claims could replace the Conservatives.

Speaking to the i paper in his first interview since leaving Downing Street in 2020, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser said the new party could capitalise on the expected collapse in the Tory vote at the next general election.

The Vote Leave mastermind claimed a majority of the electorate would support a party that is “completely different” to Labour and the Tories.

“The Tories now obviously represent nothing except a continuation of the sh-- show; higher taxes, worse violent crime, more debt, anti-entrepreneurs, public services failing, immigration out of control,” said Mr Cummings.

“But Labour I think will not alter the ultimate trajectory very much, they’ll be continuity Treasury, continuity David Cameron, George Osborne, Sunak, so everything will keep failing and everyone will be even more miserable by 2026 than they are now.

“So, to change that you have to have two fundamental things: you have to have an entity which is ruthlessly focused on the voters, not on Westminster and the old media.

“And you have to have something which is friendly towards all the amazing talent in the country, people who build things in [the] private and public sector.””

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“Soaring immigration is fuelling Britain’s housing crisis, says Bank of England’s chief economist”

anyways, a few things of some note to wake up to. Night all…

[neilj]

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'And of course the right of the party weren’t exactly really supportive in 2017 or 1983'


Unlike the enthusiastic support the left of the party is showing to Starmer in 2024 😀

[steve]

The Westminster parliamentary state of play since 2019


CON: 344 (-21)
LAB: 205 (+3)
SNP: 43 (-5)
INDs: 17 (+17)
LDM: 15 (+4)
Others: 18 (+2)


All of the Lib dem gains are from election wins.

Tory Labour and SNP changes are from a combination of elections, defections and suspensions.

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Nothing to do with building half as many homes as fifty years ago then!

Attachment Deleted

[steve]

So the Starmer plan for dealing with small boat crossings announced, scrap the Rwanda plan, use the money from that load of old cobblers to pursue refugee smugglers as if they were terrorists and do absolutely fuck all about providing safe alternative methods to enter the country as an asylum seeker and no obvious plans to speed up processing.

Natalie should be pleased.

[neilj]

May 10, 2024 6:51:54 GMT steve said:

So the Starmer plan for dealing with small boat crossings announced, scrap the Rwanda plan, use the money from that load of old cobblers to pursue refugee smugglers as if they were terrorists and do absolutely fuck all about providing safe alternative methods to enter the country as an asylum seeker and no obvious plans to speed up processing.

Natalie should be pleased.

steve Labour have said they would deal with the backlog by processing those in the system. Indeed just today they've been highly critical of the tories for not processing them.
As to using money from the silly and ineffectual Rwanda scheme to clamp down on people smugglers, that makes sense

[domjg]

May 10, 2024 7:04:33 GMT neilj said:

May 10, 2024 6:51:54 GMT steve said:

So the Starmer plan for dealing with small boat crossings announced, scrap the Rwanda plan, use the money from that load of old cobblers to pursue refugee smugglers as if they were terrorists and do absolutely fuck all about providing safe alternative methods to enter the country as an asylum seeker and no obvious plans to speed up processing.

Natalie should be pleased.

steve Labour have said they would deal with the backlog by processing those in the system. Indeed just today they've been highly critical of the tories for not processing them.
As to using money from the silly and ineffectual Rwanda scheme to clamp down on people smugglers, that makes sense

The absurd and cruel Rwanda scheme is now causing trouble for Ireland as many refugees already here inevitably are apparently travelling to NI and then crossing the border out of fear of ending up in Rwanda.

Russia was using the desperate in a deliberate attempt to destabilise European countries on it's border like Finland. The tories are effectively now doing the same to Ireland and apparently this is seen by them as a good thing as it shows it's working..

Tories knowingly causing trouble for Ireland again, what a surprise. I really hate them with every fibre of my being.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 5:18:23 GMT neilj said:

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'And of course the right of the party weren’t exactly really supportive in 2017 or 1983'


Unlike the enthusiastic support the left of the party is showing to Starmer in 2024 😀

But the MPs don’t resign en masse or make a breakaway party do they. (Might make it a bit hard for Starmer to be the new Attlee)

[Deleted]

May 10, 2024 2:27:29 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

“Soaring immigration is fuelling Britain’s housing crisis, says Bank of England’s chief economist”

anyways, a few things of some note to wake up to. Night all…

Didn’t know mercian actually got the job. Congratulations Pete. 🎈 

[neilj]

May 10, 2024 7:15:00 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 10, 2024 5:18:23 GMT neilj said:

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'And of course the right of the party weren’t exactly really supportive in 2017 or 1983'


Unlike the enthusiastic support the left of the party is showing to Starmer in 2024 😀

But the MPs don’t resign en masse or make a breakaway party do they. (Might make it a bit hard for Starmer to be the new Attlee)

I disagreed with the 7 MPs resigning then, same as I disagree with those on the left saying they won't vote Labour at the next election
My view has always been a Labour Government will be better than a tory one

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 7:19:32 GMT neilj said:

May 10, 2024 7:15:00 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

But the MPs don’t resign en masse or make a breakaway party do they. (Might make it a bit hard for Starmer to be the new Attlee)

I disagreed with the 7 MPs resigning then, same as I disagree with those on the left saying they won't vote Labour at the next election
My view has always been a Labour Government will be better than a tory one

Seven??!!

It’s not just the ones resigning from the party is it, but all the Shadow cabinet resignations etc.


“ On 26–29 June 2016, 21 members of the Shadow Cabinet resigned from the frontbench.”



“In addition, 18 other shadow ministers not in the Shadow Cabinet resigned, including Diana Johnson, Anna Turley, Toby Perkins, Yvonne Fovargue, Alex Cunningham, Steve Reed, Roberta Blackman-Woods, Wayne David, Jenny Chapman, Keir Starmer, Richard Burden, Jack Dromey, Thangam Debbonaire, Susan Elan Jones, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Sharon Hodgson, Melanie Onn, Nic Dakin and 9 Parliamentary private secretaries.[11]“


en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_British_shadow_cabinet_resignations

[steve]

neilj

The Labour plan announced today has no provision for additional safe egress into the U.K. for asylum seekers cracking down on non standard methods of entry while providing no safe methods is a pointless and inhumane approach.

Promising to do something about the backlog of applications from those already here is the very minimum that should be done.

[shevii]

May 10, 2024 5:18:23 GMT neilj said:

@c-a-r-f-r-e-w
'And of course the right of the party weren’t exactly really supportive in 2017 or 1983'


Unlike the enthusiastic support the left of the party is showing to Starmer in 2024 😀

That's an interesting point and one I need to think about! Partly depends who you are including in this group- the members or the MPs?  Yes many of the members have done a runner and been vociferous against Starmer but the MPs I would suggest have been quite different in the degree that SCG have criticised Starmer- it's all quite tame and John McDonnell in particular has had the piss taken out of him on twitter for his responses to something he disagrees with and often something the Lib Dems would disagree with as well- "will you be sending another strongly worded email"?

Part of this would come down to the oxygen of publicity afforded to Corbyn critics and especially from the Guardian which has some influence over centrists and LOC voters vibes.  It felt to me like a group of Labour MPs were on speed dial to the Guardian whenever Corbyn opened his mouth on anything and the Guardian was happy to print this stuff every day without respite. In the current climate the Guardian has run broadly anti Starmer articles but focused on core issues without much flowery language other than maybe Owen Jones.  I think if Richard Burgeon was on the phone to them about Starmer digging up some daisies and how awful this was- they'd have kept him on call waiting rather than rushing off an article.

I remember one occasion when Corbyn had made a pretty general comment about prostitution, not legislation just his thoughts on how we might be able to make things safer for prostitutes. The usual suspect Labour MPs jumped on this for days on end in extreme language where more moderate language and an opening point in a debate might have been more appropriate. They even went as far as to question his feminist credentials as to why a man should have opinion on this at all (but female MPs were allowed to despite not being prostitutes themselves or necessarily having more of a clue about the issue than, say, a policeman or male social worker might have).

Then of course you had the no confidence vote after one year and the timed resignations from cabinet. You couldn't have had a similar situation from the left because, after years of New Labour selections and manipulations there was only a rump of 20 or so SCG MPs remaining.  We therefore can't say if the positions were reversed and the SCG were stronger that they wouldn't have tried something.

I'm never quite clear what the motivation for this no confidence vote other than bide their time for a year after a leadership result they didn't like and then try and reverse it.  Maybe this was over the brexit vote and the mistaken belief that he could have changed the outcome- mostly from MPs in remain areas who simply couldn't comprehend that Labour Red Wall voters were pretty much fixed in their views on brexit and that a leader of a political party could have little influence over the result of a Tory on Tory fight.

[steve]

neilj

My party position is to treat asylum seekers like humans provide the necessary resource for safe entry and rapid processing of asylum claims both in the UK and overseas.

Doing this will have far greater impact on non standard methods of entry than any criminalising approach.

Once the issue of safe passage and processing is addressed its a reasonable assumption that those using non standard methods have nefarious reasons for doing so, given the inevitable huge drop in numbers using these dangerous methods the remaining crossings would be easier to police.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 5:32:23 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Nothing to do with building half as many homes as fifty years ago then!

View Attachment

Well there’s the thing. As Shelter pointed out in their analysis wot I posted about on the old board when chatting about it with @garj, the private sector has figured out they can make more profit, by building houses at a slow rate, and bank a load of land to stop other people doing it. For decades we’ve had right-wing governments that are not particularly keen to build a load of houses, since their right-wing economics means you don’t get a lot of growth in wages, and you have to buy voters off with house price rises instead. Meanwhile, there are all the planning regulations, and rules on top from the EU on things like nutrient neutrality which I think we are still signed up to, which may make it even harder to build homes. 

And of course, there is a financial incentive for people to support more immigration while impeding housebuilding. But if you have any solutions it’ll be handy!

[neilj]

steve

My point was in reference to your claim that Labour will do nothing to address the backlog, they will. Indeed they've been criticised by the tories saying Labour would grant an amnesty to those already here. Which is a lie, they've said they will put resources into dealing with the backlog, to process the applications

[neilj]

Re my earlier point
'My view has always been a Labour Government will be better than a tory one'

I would also add in seats where Labour can't win it makes sense for people to vote for Greens/Libdems if they are in the best position to beat the tory candidates

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

Despite significantly inward migration to th European union house price there have on average seen nothing like the dramatic rises in the UK.

Obviously this varied from country to country and area of popularity.

But in general there's nothing like the obsession with using housing as an investment portfolio as in the uk.
Primarily residential property is bought or rented as a place to live.

[neilj]

May 10, 2024 7:22:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 10, 2024 7:19:32 GMT neilj said:

I disagreed with the 7 MPs resigning then, same as I disagree with those on the left saying they won't vote Labour at the next election
My view has always been a Labour Government will be better than a tory one

Seven??!!

It’s not just the ones resigning from the party is it, but all the Shadow cabinet resignations etc.


“ On 26–29 June 2016, 21 members of the Shadow Cabinet resigned from the frontbench.”



“In addition, 18 other shadow ministers not in the Shadow Cabinet resigned, including Diana Johnson, Anna Turley, Toby Perkins, Yvonne Fovargue, Alex Cunningham, Steve Reed, Roberta Blackman-Woods, Wayne David, Jenny Chapman, Keir Starmer, Richard Burden, Jack Dromey, Thangam Debbonaire, Susan Elan Jones, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Sharon Hodgson, Melanie Onn, Nic Dakin and 9 Parliamentary private secretaries.[11]“


en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_British_shadow_cabinet_resignations

I have no problem with MPs resigning from Government positions on point of principle for them, but stay in the party to fight for their position
I think Jess Phillips for example should not be criticised for resigning over Gaza. The problem is depending on which wing of the party such decisions will be viewed as principled or a betrayal

[steve]

neilj
'My view has always been a Labour Government will be better than a tory one.


Well I'd of course agree that they would most certainly be better than this Tory regime.

But that's not particularly challenging is it.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 8:25:19 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w

Despite significantly inward migration to th European union house price there have on average seen nothing like the dramatic rises in the UK.

Obviously this varied from country to country and area of popularity.

But in general there's nothing like the obsession with using housing as an investment portfolio as in the uk.
Primarily residential property is bought or rented as a place to live.

While that may be true, the house price rises can still be significant. I just had a quick google and the first source I looked at said the EU average rose 45% in the last decade, and if we look at a peer like Germany it was nearly 100%. 

So yes, it might be even worse here, but that doesn’t mean the problem is easily surmountable elsewhere. And some European countries might have more available land mass than us. As alec has pointed out before now I think, we are quite densely populated.

[neilj]

Savanta UK


NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
@thescotsman

📈Labour lead the SNP for first time in a Savanta poll.

🌹LAB 37% (+2)
🎗️SNP 33% (-2)
🌳CON 17% (-2)
🔶LD 7% (+1)
⬜️Other 6% (+1)

First time Labour have tied the SNP in a Holyrood constituency VI in Savanta polling

🎗️SNP 35% (-2)
🌹LAB 35% (+2)
🌳CON 18% (=)
🔶LD 8% (+2)
⬜️Other 5% (=)

📈Labour extend lead to 6pts in the List VI.

🌹LAB 32% (+3)
🎗️SNP 26% (-2)
🌳CON 18% (-2)
🌍Green 11% (-2)
🔶LD 10% (+2)
⬜️Other 4% (+2)

1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

[leftieliberal]

May 9, 2024 23:19:55 GMT oldnat said:

May 9, 2024 22:07:38 GMT pjw1961 said:

Fact remains, since 1979 - Blair 3 elections, 3 wins. Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn, all, to varying degrees, to Blair's left, 8 elections, 8 defeats. I wish it were not so, but I always try to remember that I am more left-wing than the vast majority of British voters - as are you. This is a very unrepresentative site in that respect.

I do agree that good safe social democrat John Smith would have won in 1997 - I have always suspected with a majority of around 50 rather than Blair's landslide, but we shall never know. I am much less sure about your suggestion that Rebecca Long-Bailey would be leading Labour to victory now. Labour is not loved and any suggestion it was 'dangerous' would see a move back toward the Conservatives. See the Guardian's vox pop in Dover today for example; they had no trouble finding people who thought Labour was 'too woke' and wanted to 'let all the immigrants in', despite Starmer's obsession with reassurance.   

Vox pops are notoriously used by media to create a selective view. You say that the Guardian "had no trouble finding ...", but how do you know that? I find it surprising that there would be many folk on a "Dover omnibus", who would routinely use such a term as "too woke" - though perhaps that is part of the common parlance in SE England?

I don't trust anything I read in The Guardian any more than I trust anything I read in the Daily Mail. For all I know, the journalist prompted the reply because they used the 'woke' word in their question. Sadly, that newspaper was declining under Rusbridger's editorship and has fallen off a cliff since Viner (a.k.a. Mrs Chiles) took over.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 10, 2024 8:26:54 GMT neilj said:

May 10, 2024 7:22:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Seven??!!

It’s not just the ones resigning from the party is it, but all the Shadow cabinet resignations etc.


“ On 26–29 June 2016, 21 members of the Shadow Cabinet resigned from the frontbench.”



“In addition, 18 other shadow ministers not in the Shadow Cabinet resigned, including Diana Johnson, Anna Turley, Toby Perkins, Yvonne Fovargue, Alex Cunningham, Steve Reed, Roberta Blackman-Woods, Wayne David, Jenny Chapman, Keir Starmer, Richard Burden, Jack Dromey, Thangam Debbonaire, Susan Elan Jones, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Sharon Hodgson, Melanie Onn, Nic Dakin and 9 Parliamentary private secretaries.[11]“


en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_British_shadow_cabinet_resignations

I have no problem with MPs resigning from Government positions on point of principle for them, but stay in the party to fight for their position
I think Jess Phillips for example should not be criticised for resigning over Gaza. The problem is depending on which wing of the party such decisions will be viewed as principled or a betrayal

One or two resignations is one thing, a load of cabinet and ministers at once is something else. (And in ‘83 they formed a new party too!) Even worse if we consider the stuff talked about on the old board, where they keep leaking to the press, won’t free up resources from safe seats to help fight in marginals etc. - but even if one accepts this behaviour as you suggest, problem is that it could be quite difficult for Starmer to present a left-wing agenda given the potential opposition. And that is without considering how membership of the EU - something the right of the party are very keen on - stymied left-wing policy. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, to pursue an agenda like Attlee’s while being a member of the EU, since the rules are so much more pro-capital and set against state action. (In fact, even being outside the EU, it may well not be possible, because in order to get the trade arrangement we have subsequently made on leaving, we still have to cede quite a lot of state control. Although the actions of the Americans have forced the EU’s hand a bit, so green investment at least might be more acceptable now). 

[leftieliberal]

May 9, 2024 23:53:47 GMT graham said:

May 9, 2024 20:48:12 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

We know he saw in some liberal social reforms but what would you say were Wilson’s economic achievements, G.?

Many of the social policy achievements were really the result of Private Members/ Bills which had the support of Roy Jenkins as Home Secretary. Wilson had more direct responsibility for establishing the Open University of which he remained genuinely proud. Beyond that he did  help to bring about a more equal society via changes in Welfare Beneits and entitlements.

Without the PM's backing even Roy Jenkins would have found it difficult to get Government time for those Private Members' Bills. Also what I think doesn't get recognised enough is Wilson's backing of Castle's "In Place of Strife", which was only defeated because of Cabinet opposition led by Jim Callaghan. Had the Union dinosaurs kept faith with Castle and Wilson, the history of labour relations in the following decades might have been very different.

[neilj]

At the very least there is no sign of the polls tightening as another week ends

Techne

NEW POLL: LABOUR STRENGTHENS LEAD WHILE CONSERVATIVES DECLINE

Lab 45% (+1)
Cons 21% (-1)
Lib Dems 11% (+1)
Reform 12% (-1)
Greens 6% (=)
SNP 2% (=)
Others 3% (=)

👥 1638 Surveyed
🔎 Field Work: 8 & 9 May 2024
🗓️ +/- 3rd May 2024

[crossbat11]

Some interesting comments about the merits or otherwise of Starmer the politician and leader and whilst there were, predictably, recitations of favoured tunes of glory and the replaying of many of our greatest hits, I enjoyed and appreciated quite a few of the cases for and against.

My guiding light is to avoid retreating into sandbagged bunkers on these sorts of issues and to try and find some nuance amongst it all. I recoil instinctively from both eulogies and relentless condemnations. Loathing and detestation has no place in either a reasoned or worthwhile debate on political leadership, or anything else for that matter. Neither does lionisation or hero worship, although rancorous debate can force protagonists into this sort of polarisation and ludicrous hyperbole.

Which leads me to Starmer. It should be possible to be both happy and disappointed with him at the same time and then come to a sort of settled view about him in the round. Not to be hounded into pro and anti camps. We don't have to agree on his worth as a politician or how effective he is and might be, but what we must avoid, I think, is totem political positioning wrapped around his persona.

A sort of rather traduced debate defined by whether you're for or agin him. Starmerite or nay. This nonsense surrounded Corbyn's leadership, and still does to some extent.

Personally, I have certain preferences about past and current political figures, but they don't define me at all. My politics are fluid and sometimes quixotic. I don't feel trapped by isms or ites at all.

I'm rather partial, and always have been, to Labour leaders who win elections though!