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Post by alec on May 9, 2024 7:38:19 GMT
steve - "I share your concerns about bird flu incidentally, if this became a human to human transmitted virus the consequences are dire with mortality rates and an age demographic of far greater potential consequence than covid." I'm a little less concerned about bird flu, tbh, although there is no place for complacency. We have the capacity to quickly produce vaccines against flu and the evidence suggests that as with other avian flus, as the virus picks up adaptations that enable easier human to human spread it's severity drops. We're unlikely to see the ultra high mortality rates seen so far in the H5N1 outbreak. Covid, on the other hand, has settled into a very dangerous niche, whereby humans are very complacent about it, thinking that because the acute phase is now predominantly mild it's more or less harmless. You really should spent a week or two reading up on the science of the long term damage it's causing. You'd be quite shocked I suspect, once you understood what is going on inside people's bodies as a result. It might be a decade or two before we fully appreciate this.
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Post by mark61 on May 9, 2024 7:53:31 GMT
Wowser Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1) Fieldwork 7 - 8 May That is very impressive! If the GE result was anywhere near that it would be a wipeout. Not much joy for the Lib-Dems, only likely to increase their tally of seats due to ABT voting. I think they are not helped by a rather uninspiring almost invisible leader. I follow Politics and other than Layla Moran can't think of another LD Politician. Never been like that in my lifetime. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2024 8:06:37 GMT
Wowser Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1) Fieldwork 7 - 8 May The Elphicke Effect? Local election bounce? One for Dave anyway. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2024 8:10:45 GMT
Wowser Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1) Fieldwork 7 - 8 May That is very impressive! If the GE result was anywhere near that it would be a wipeout. Not much joy for the Lib-Dems, only likely to increase their tally of seats due to ABT voting. I think they are not helped by a rather uninspiring almost invisible leader. I follow Politics and other than Layla Moran can't think of another LD Politician. Never been like that in my lifetime. Electoral Calculus Lab 551, LD 44, SNP 19, Con 13, PC 3, Green 2, Reform 0. Labour majority 452. |
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Post by athena on May 9, 2024 8:18:07 GMT
I decided last autumn that I wouldn't be voting Lab at the next GE, so what I think of the decision to welcome Elphicke to the Lab ranks is irrelevant. Starmer isn't interested in attracting voters like me.
If she concentrates on housing and the folly of the Rwanda scheme (apparently the main areas of common ground with Lab) and refrains from expressing views less palatable to the average Lab voter her defection will be net positive for Lab. Time will tell, but if we assume that Starmer and his team know what they are doing the chances are that by the time most people are paying attention, she'll be just another anonymous, retiring Lab MP.
Since it's fairly clear that there are plenty of people in the Lab ranks who are sceptical about whether she belongs on their benches and her Tory colleagues must be thoroughly irked by her betrayal she's either got a pretty thick skin or acted out of a sincere belief that Sunak's a dreadful PM and Starmer's policies will be better for the country than those of Reform.
I know the 'whatever it takes to win power' school of thought has support amongst the Lab stalwarts of UKPR2, but it makes me uneasy. The point is to win a mandate for a distinctive policy agenda, otherwise we're just shuffling the personnel and whilst there's a case for doing that this time purely on ground of relative competence, I think voters ought to be offered more. Will there be anything in the Lab manifesto apart from the workers' rights stuff that couldn't plausibly be part of a centre-right manifesto? At the moment the five missions are so loosely drawn that there's nothing a rightwinger need object to.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 9, 2024 8:29:13 GMT
domjg I'm not sure if the political bonus in this instance was needed for Labour. It's a bit embarrassing for Labour mps to explain why someone who was in the Tory European research group far right cult until Tuesday, is suitable as a Labour mp on Wednesday. It does feed into the popular trope that all politicians are the same. After these few days no-one will ever hear her name again. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 9, 2024 8:35:45 GMT
I decided last autumn that I wouldn't be voting Lab at the next GE, so what I think of the decision to welcome Elphicke to the Lab ranks is irrelevant. Starmer isn't interested in attracting voters like me. If she concentrates on housing and the folly of the Rwanda scheme (apparently the main areas of common ground with Lab) and refrains from expressing views less palatable to the average Lab voter her defection will be net positive for Lab. Time will tell, but if we assume that Starmer and his team know what they are doing the chances are that by the time most people are paying attention, she'll be just another anonymous, retiring Lab MP. Since it's fairly clear that there are plenty of people in the Lab ranks who are sceptical about whether she belongs on their benches and her Tory colleagues must be thoroughly irked by her betrayal she's either got a pretty thick skin or acted out of a sincere belief that Sunak's a dreadful PM and Starmer's policies will be better for the country than those of Reform. I know the 'whatever it takes to win power' school of thought has support amongst the Lab stalwarts of UKPR2, but it makes me uneasy. The point is to win a mandate for a distinctive policy agenda, otherwise we're just shuffling the personnel and whilst there's a case for doing that this time purely on ground of relative competence, I think voters ought to be offered more. Will there be anything in the Lab manifesto apart from the workers' rights stuff that couldn't plausibly be part of a centre-right manifesto? At the moment the five missions are so loosely drawn that there's nothing a rightwinger need object to. I understand some of these concerns and they are valid but for me this current govt is so rotten, so venal, so self-serving, so destructive to our society on every level that it's removal is the number one concern bar none. Even if there were no policy differences at all (which is far from the truth and I suspect once they're in power we'll see what Starmer's governing instincts really are) I would still be looking forward to a govt of those who don't feel entitled to enrich themselves and their mates through contracts, who believe in the rule of law and accountability, who aren't in hock to a crazed culture war obsessed far right element and so are able to be flexible and pragmatic, who may not yet bring us fully back into the European fold but will work to close the gap over time having no ideological deadweight of anti-Europeanism, who, by and large seem to be decent, competent people who actually want to make a difference and have the skills to do so unlike the deluded, self-aggrandising monkeys of today's tory party. In short, for me at least, this is more cultural than anything else and the right policies will, to an extent, naturally flow from the right governing culture. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 8:40:36 GMT
That latest yougov poll put through electoral calculus takes us into lunatic fringe territory.
The result with a bit of tactical voting has the Tories on just seven seats .
Labour with less than half the votes receiving over 90% of the seats with the liberal democrats snapping at their heels just the 450 behind as the official opposition
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 8:43:33 GMT
Two right wing lawyers from working class backgrounds admire each other's flags. Attachment Deleted |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2024 8:49:17 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀
NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - May 2024
*Labour leads by 15 points*
Labour: 41% (-1)
Conservatives: 26% (-2)
Reform UK: 13% (-)
Lib Dems: 11% (+1)
Green: 5% (-)
Other: 4% (-2)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2024 8:52:12 GMT
Nadhim Zahawi becomes latest in growing line of Tory MPs to announce they won’t stand again at general election
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 9, 2024 8:54:15 GMT
Two right wing lawyers from working class backgrounds admire each other's flags. View AttachmentI do hope you don't join the oldnat and shevii gang.. I will almost certainly be voting LD in my constituency at the next election, but I'll be doing so because I want a Labour govt as I've always done when in a constituency where LDs are the main challengers to the tories. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2024 8:54:21 GMT
Wowser Labour lead at *30 points* in this week's YouGov poll for The Times That's the biggest Labour lead since Truss CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1) Fieldwork 7 - 8 May Bank! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2024 8:57:09 GMT
Thinking about the polls, I'm surprised Badenoch's big toilet announcement hasn't cut through...
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 9:03:12 GMT
"Nadhim Zahawi becomes latest in growing line of Tory MPs to announce they won’t stand again at general election"
when's he joining Labour?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 9:03:58 GMT
domjg Just having a laugh mate. I'd do the same but you have to admit it's bonkers. A far right refugee hating Tory joining Labour because of their immigration polices
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 9, 2024 9:05:15 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀 NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - May 2024 *Labour leads by 15 points* Labour: 41% (-1) Conservatives: 26% (-2) Reform UK: 13% (-) Lib Dems: 11% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Other: 4% (-2) Apparently the poll uses DK/turnout model that reduces the lead from 19pts to 15pts, so around the average Labour lead for polls |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 9, 2024 9:12:13 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀 NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - May 2024 *Labour leads by 15 points* Labour: 41% (-1) Conservatives: 26% (-2) Reform UK: 13% (-) Lib Dems: 11% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Other: 4% (-2) Are there methodological reasons for the divergence of pollsters? The difference in the size of the Labour lead, and the respective party VIs, is so consistent that they can't be explained away by periodic sampling errors, fieldwork timings and rogue outcomes. For one pollster to consistently have Labour ahead by 15 points and another by 25-30 points does bring opinion polling into semi-disrepute. I've never quite understood why they use different methodologies, to be honest. Is this just stubborn eccentricity or the sensible adherence to methods that, over time, have proved to be more accurate? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2024 9:12:42 GMT
Two right wing lawyers from working class backgrounds admire each other's flags. View AttachmentSo do people think this latest move will move the dial on Labour attracting Tory voters, or not? (Or any Reform voters?) And will any more Tory politicians follow her lead and join Labour? (Like maybe Boris. Or Truss. Maybe Sunak, he seems quite opportunist, ask Boris about that) |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 9:26:19 GMT
Labour announce the newest defection from the Tories.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2024 9:30:32 GMT
" I follow Politics and other than Layla Moran can't think of another LD Politician. Never been like that in my lifetime. "
Didn't stop us winning more additional local elections than any other party since 2019.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2024 9:40:44 GMT
domjg Just having a laugh mate. I'd do the same but you have to admit it's bonkers. A far right refugee hating Tory joining Labour because of their immigration polices It’s pretty surreal. It’s taking Cuckoo Politics to the next level |
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Post by mark61 on May 9, 2024 9:43:56 GMT
" I follow Politics and other than Layla Moran can't think of another LD Politician. Never been like that in my lifetime. " Didn't stop us winning more additional local elections than any other party since 2019. Always out performed in the locals, lot of busybodies in the Lib Dems! |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2024 9:47:25 GMT
Two right wing lawyers from working class backgrounds admire each other's flags. View AttachmentSo do people think this latest move will move the dial on Labour attracting Tory voters, or not? And will any more Tory politicians follow her lead and join Labour? (Like maybe Boris. Or Truss. Maybe Sunak, he seems quite opportunist, ask Boris about that) I appreciate your post is a bit tongue in cheek, and the Elphicke defection seems to have genuinely taken all sides by surprise, but Sky, particularly, have been broadly hinting lately that there are ongoing discussions between LAB and various CON MPs regarding possible further defections. Only this morning, they used the term 'multiple' in this context, although meaning more than one, rather than a coachload, I think! If there is anything in this, I think we can expect any such defections to be timed for maximum damage/embarrassment for CON, like the Elphicke announcement, which seems almost like an unexpected bonus. |
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Post by James E on May 9, 2024 9:57:07 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀 NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - 2-5 May 2024 *Labour leads by 15 points* Labour: 41% (-1) Conservatives: 26% (-2) Reform UK: 13% (-) Lib Dems: 11% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Other: 4% (-2) Are there methodological reasons for the divergence of pollsters? The difference in the size of the Labour lead, and the respective party VIs, is so consistent that they can't be explained away by periodic sampling errors, fieldwork timings and rogue outcomes. For one pollster to consistently have Labour ahead by 15 points and another by 25-30 points does bring opinion polling into semi-disrepute. I've never quite understood why they use different methodologies, to be honest. Is this just stubborn eccentricity or the sensible adherence to methods that, over time, have proved to be more accurate? The big difference is the adjustment for 'Don't Knows', as applied by Opinium, MiC, JL Partners and (I think) BMG. Pollsters who do this typically show Labour around 16 points ahead, but bear in mind that this has been adjusted downwards by 4-7 points. YouGov have also used this for their two large MRPs this year , and these have shown Labour leads of 14 and 17 points . There is another group of pollsters who do not prompt for Reform UK and this results in a higher Conservative VI by several points (but often a relatively high Lab VI, too). The pollsters who do this are Survation, Savanta and (I think) Deltapoll. These pollsters average around an 18-point Labour lead. If we look at the remaining pollsters, who don't adjust for DKs, and do prompt, that leaves YouGov, We Think, R&W, Techne and Ipsos. This group is currently averaging around a 23-24 point Labour lead. You Gov's "18-48" poll may be either an outlier or a halo effect from the various elections last week; we don't know yet, as it is easily the most recent poll. The JL figures above are almost a week old. The gap between the 'adjusters' and 'non-adjusters' has been fairly consistent at about 6 points. My best guess is that when we eventually get an election, the outcome will be closer to that of the 'adjusters' and/or the likes of Survation. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2024 10:00:05 GMT
So do people think this latest move will move the dial on Labour attracting Tory voters, or not? And will any more Tory politicians follow her lead and join Labour? (Like maybe Boris. Or Truss. Maybe Sunak, he seems quite opportunist, ask Boris about that) I appreciate your post is a bit tongue in cheek, and the Elphicke defection seems to have genuinely taken all sides by surprise, but Sky, particularly, have been broadly hinting lately that there are ongoing discussions between LAB and various CON MPs regarding possible further defections. Only this morning, they used the term 'multiple' in this context, although meaning more than one, rather than a coachload, I think! If there is anything in this, I think we can expect any such defections to be timed for maximum damage/embarrassment for CON, like the Elphicke announcement, which seems almost like an unexpected bonus. Tbh isa, it might not be vary likely, but I am at the stage where I really wouldn’t be completely shocked if Starmer joined the Tories, Sturgeon joined Reform, Sunak left to lead the SNP, Truss joined the Greens and Ed Davey led the Lib Dems. (There’s a universe where all that has happened, think about that…) |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2024 10:06:00 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀 NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - May 2024 *Labour leads by 15 points* Labour: 41% (-1) Conservatives: 26% (-2) Reform UK: 13% (-) Lib Dems: 11% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Other: 4% (-2) Are there methodological reasons for the divergence of pollsters? The difference in the size of the Labour lead, and the respective party VIs, is so consistent that they can't be explained away by periodic sampling errors, fieldwork timings and rogue outcomes. For one pollster to consistently have Labour ahead by 15 points and another by 25-30 points does bring opinion polling into semi-disrepute. I've never quite understood why they use different methodologies, to be honest. Is this just stubborn eccentricity or the sensible adherence to methods that, over time, have proved to be more accurate? You want different methodologies tried out to see what works best. If anything pollsters have been accused of excessive 'herding' in the past. What I do wish is they would all be transparent as to what they are doing, which is variable at present. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2024 10:08:40 GMT
Rest is Politics poll, I suspect Labour's lead is somewhere between 15 and 30 😀 NEW The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - May 2024 *Labour leads by 15 points* Labour: 41% (-1) Conservatives: 26% (-2) Reform UK: 13% (-) Lib Dems: 11% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Other: 4% (-2) Even that one produces a Labour majority on Electoral Calculus of close to 200. It does let the Tories have 135 seats rather than 13! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2024 10:10:30 GMT
" I follow Politics and other than Layla Moran can't think of another LD Politician. Never been like that in my lifetime. " Didn't stop us winning more additional local elections than any other party since 2019. But can you name them all steve!  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2024 10:43:23 GMT
Covid, on the other hand, has settled into a very dangerous niche, whereby humans are very complacent about it, thinking that because the acute phase is now predominantly mild it's more or less harmless. I seem to recall that in the year after completing the vaccination program the annual death toll was still 1/4 to 1/2 that in its peak year. The pattern was changed of course to some every day rather than all in a big surge. Considering other treatment improvements had claimed to have cut the death rate by at least a half anyway, that wasnt really a big change after vaccinating everyone and ending lockdowns. And yet the whole world decided to go back to normal. You seem to enjoy handwringing about this, but perhaps better to do so that we will all die, inevitably. Concentrating as you do especially on covid is not helpful in devising a sensible health strategy. It really is an epidemic which massively underperformed compared to predicted death tolls, even in populations which took no special measures. The one place it was a real killer, was in care homes for the elderly, where the inhabitants were all already in poor health or they would not have been there. Second place probably goes to hospitals, similarly full of already sick people. |
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