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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2024 11:45:59 GMT
I think this blog post by Jonathan Calder, quoting Patrick Howse really gets to the point about why Laura Kuenssberg is so bad at the job she is doing now for the BBC. As Howse says: What the BBC needed was someone who could take a step back, away from the scrum, and tell audiences when they were being lied to. That was something neither the BBC nor Kuenssberg has ever come to terms with.Note also the date of Howse's article in Byline Times, 30th March 2022. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2024 11:53:23 GMT
An interesting set of results, and encouraging for the Labour Party. The Green Party can be very pleased with increasing their vote and representation. Fairly clear the anti-ULEZ "flash" campaign in Uxbridge (2023) was really a bit of a freak result. As usual the caveat on low turnouts, 20-30% at these elections will probably be 65-70% in the general election. A resilient Tory vote shows the battle is between Tory and Labour / SNP in most locations, a few interesting local contests but quite telling the Tories were not routed, and talk of a rout is wishful to say the least. A good proportion of the 40% missing electorate who will turn out will vote Tory, and it will be West Midlands style knife-edge in a lot of the marginals, although I'm confident it will be the Tory asking for a recount! Tight margins, use your vote wisely! Shame there was no option to vote Lib Dem - people might have been able to use their vote wisely, as you advise, and maybe added 25% or more to Lib Dem seat numbers. We’ll never know now….. |
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jib
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Post by jib on May 5, 2024 11:54:42 GMT
As usual the caveat on low turnouts, 20-30% at these elections will probably be 65-70% in the general election. The turnout was 40% in London, quite typical for recent Mayoral elections, as not as unrepresentative as you think. The London Results were more representative I'd say. And here we can see the Tory vote is stubborn, but that the "third way" votes are increasingly going to the Green Party. Thoughts of big seat gains at the GE for the Lib Dems are fanciful and I stick to my guns that 25 seats will be a very good result for them. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 12:09:38 GMT
nickpoole I really hope you don't live in one of the 50-60 odd seats where the only realistic challenger to the incumbent Tories is the Lib dems. Because it's partisan obsessive favouritism in these areas who will give them their best chance of staying in office. You might not actually care about that but personally I'd like to see the back of them. lululemonmustdobetter While of course I'd prefer a Labour plurality dependent on lib dem support electoral calculus estimate that the chances of this are less than 2% Sky news coverage has been frankly daft, they normally manage a bit better than that. The only real indicators from the locals and mayoral contests are that the Tories are buggered and the biggest gains for the Lib dems and Labour are in areas that are winnable for them at a general election. The only real lib dem Labour face off is Sheffield Hallam which I'd assumed would be a straightforward Labour hold but given the Lib dems won all the local wards in that constituency on Thursday might be rather more competitive than I thought. It could mean the difference between a Labour majority of 250 and a slender margin of 248 instead. Too many magic mushrooms at Sky or perhaps they're after the GBeebies viewers
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 12:18:26 GMT
"Good Morning, anyone know why Reform didn't stand a candidate in the Tees Valley mayoral election? Brexity is it not?"
Their candidate couldn't get a day release from Holme House prison.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 12:37:09 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil About 70 in total , including seats already held. There are an additional 30 odd seats with a "medium" possibility. The poll was conducted in February the polling for the Lib dems hasn't changed significantly since then. While of course there's no guarantee of picking up all 55 but they are all winnable, to only pick up 10 is highly unlikely. Their own middle ground estimate for lib dem mps is 50 with a minimum of 30 and a max of around 60 , which seems plausible, there's an outside chance of a few more and official opposition status of the election campaign goes exceptionally badly for the Tories. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lib2seats_20240226.html |
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Post by nickpoole on May 5, 2024 12:42:19 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil About 70 in total , including seats already held. There are an additional 30 odd seats with a "medium" possibility. The poll was conducted in February the polling for the Lib dems hasn't changed significantly since then. While of course there's no guarantee of picking up all 55 but they are all winnable, to only pick up 10 is highly unlikely. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lib2seats_20240226.htmlSheffield Hallam - Labour voters should tactically vote LD to kick out ...their own MP? |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2024 12:43:11 GMT
The jury is still put on whether Labour can win a majority at the next election. Labour did well in many areas on Thursday and thd strategy of targeting the White working class vote in post-industrial towns (to the degree there were elections there) appears to be working. However, this close to a GE, you would expect the main Opposition party to be a larger beneficiary of the Government's weakness. What we saw was the Tories losing votes to everyone else. This is part of a wider issue for Labour. Whilst there is great desire to kick the Tories out, there is no great enthusiasm for the Labour Party, its leader or its direction (as numerous polls have shown). And it appears from comments by Lqbour councillors and pundits during the local election results programmes that they have no desire to examine why this might be or to do anything about it. Actually this close to a GE you would normally expect clear evidens of a swingback to the Government - yet there really is no evidence of that. Labour has maintained the lead recorded a year ago - and this year there are obvious factors which have depressed its underlying vote - ie Muslim voters supporting Independents and the Greens. Take away that facor and the lead would probably be nearer 11%/12% - before making any allowance for clear evidence that many who vote LD at local elections do switch to Labour at a GE. labour is certainly much better placed thanwas the case at this stage in the run-up to the elections of 1964 and February 1974.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 12:44:22 GMT
Sheffield Hallam - Labour voters should tactically vote LD to kick out ...their own MP
Don't be obtuse , that's the only realistic seat where there's a straightforward contest between Labour and lib dems I'd of course expect both party supporters in those circumstances to vote for their own candidate
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2024 12:44:34 GMT
The turnout was 40% in London, quite typical for recent Mayoral elections, as not as unrepresentative as you think. The London Results were more representative I'd say. And here we can see the Tory vote is stubborn, but that the "third way" votes are increasingly going to the Green Party.Thoughts of big seat gains at the GE for the Lib Dems are fanciful and I stick to my guns that 25 seats will be a very good result for them. I think this is true for younger voters, but the opposite may be true for older voters. Would be interesting to see if polling confirms this. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2024 12:48:02 GMT
I think to some extent the ULEZ issue in London has been misunderstood. There is still substantial opposition to it in large parts of Outer London (Zones 4-6), especially where fast public transport alternatives are not great.
It's just that it was never an election defining issue.
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Post by graham on May 5, 2024 12:49:12 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil About 70 in total , including seats already held. There are an additional 30 odd seats with a "medium" possibility. The poll was conducted in February the polling for the Lib dems hasn't changed significantly since then. While of course there's no guarantee of picking up all 55 but they are all winnable, to only pick up 10 is highly unlikely. Their own middle ground estimate for lib dem mps is 50 with a minimum of 30 and a max of around 60 , which seems plausible, there's an outside chance of a few more and official opposition status of the election campaign goes exceptionally badly for the Tories. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lib2seats_20240226.htmlQuite a bit of hooey in that list. No way will the LDs win - Bermondsey & Southwark , Cambridge , Finchley & Golders Green , Hampstead & Highgate. many others are highly unlikely - including Brecon & Radnor and Cwm Tawe. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2024 12:52:32 GMT
If membership of the EU is indeed a necessary condition for our recovery, but it ain't going to happen, then the story of the next government will be of failure. Failure to fulfil the hopes placed in it; failure to arrest decline; failure to address the deep structural and constitutional problems facing the country. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. I don't suppose many Labour-inclined posters on here will agree with that gloomy analysis, or thank me if I continue in this vein once Labour is in power. The estimates have been something like 2% off annual growth, so year by year there is still scope for doing better or worse, but in the long run we will be significantly poorer. I pointed out how Australia is now richer than the UK, which means they have been busy growing faster than us. Which means they can both tax at a lower percentage, and still spend more. The developed world moved to outsourcing industry, which has made China incredibly rich making stuff for us. Approximately around Thatcher we abandoned trying to promote local industry, arguing it was better to let the chinese do it. Germany significantly did the reverse, still using whatever tricks it could to retain its industrial base, and is now richer than us. They have some current problems, mostly related to unwisely relying on Russia for energy supply. but we also have done little to ensure secure energy supply, which could have been done by driving for renewables. Instead we pushed to create an energy price storm, when inevitably the reduction in developing fossil fuel sources met the failure to push reneables, meaning a world shortfall. I'm not sure how much sanctions of Russia have contributed, because Russia is still selling that same fuel to other nations than before and we are buying from different nations. Really, its down to misshandled drive to renewables, and I wouldnt be surprised the energy companies quietly saw it coming. Huge profits, any year now.
Its hard to know to what extent con have diverted funds to private sector profits, which would not have happened under a labour government. The post office scandal began under the Major administration, bubbled along under labour and finally came to public attention under conservatives. Con have blatantly denied claims for compensation in the face of obvious injustice, but they didnt start this trend. There are plenty of other longstanding compensation claims. The NHS majorly works on delaying compensation claims, and care services all work on delaying confirming a need so as to delay spending.
The bottom line seems to be Keynes was right, if a government borrows to invest it will pay off. The last government borrowed to cut taxes, which is not the same. The tories have pushed up national debt by 50%, with little to show in investment terms. Much of that was squandered on useless lockdowns. Totally squandered in the sense it achieved nothing, but even if you take the figures of those most optimisitic about life years retained, it was a very very poor bargain where simply investing in the economy would in the long run have saved more life years. It was a disaster of political management, though obviously it wasnt just the Uk which failed in as much as it followed international advice. The WHO failed the planet.
The obvious thing to do now is at least sign up to membership of the EU market system as soon as possible. If we dont, the economy will be 10% smaller by the end of the next parliament than otherwise. Thats one hell of a difference to the budget. Failing this, we need to drive to tax capital. Something complicated because inflation will shrink many asset values in the next few years. We need to get at the majorly wealthy, or at the very least halt profits departing the UK from foreign owned companies. That too is part of onshoring industry.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 12:56:34 GMT
graham . I assume electoral calculus are basing those locations on their polling. What are you basing your opinion on " tea leaves " " gut feeling "or something more plausible? I think they've incorporated a few lib dem Labour seats in that list I'd agree taking Bermondsey from Labour is exceptionally unlikely. On the subject of unsubstantiated claims "Braverman tells Sunak to ‘own’ dismal election results and ‘fix it’ but says it’s too late for Tories to change leader" Of course a proud former member of team lunatic like Suella Braverman holds no culpability at all. I disagree there's at least time for 3 more unelected prime minister's using the standard system of measurement " the truss"
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2024 12:58:58 GMT
Thoughts of big seat gains at the GE for the Lib Dems are fanciful and I stick to my guns that 25 seats will be a very good result for them. So a 200% increase? On this weeks showing though, range 50-100 is not impossible. Especially if the trend continues of the gap between lab and con widening, but lab vote share still falling. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 13:14:43 GMT
As a matter of interest I put the numbers that sky have been chundering on about giving no majority for Labour and EC comes up with a Labour majority of 150+ which is of course absurd on just 34% of the vote but with the Tories on just 25% and a reasonable lib dem performance that's what comes out.
I wonder how they achieved their' s, darts maybe!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 5, 2024 13:23:32 GMT
So tories are predictably calling for the gvt to move yet further to the right in response to these elections when literally anyone with eyes and ears and consciousness can see that the lesson is the exact opposite.
It's like they can't conceive of anything else, cars that can only turn the wheel to the right. Well pretty obviously that's going to mean they don't get where they want to go but will end up driving into a ditch sooner rather than later.
I do think the lunatics actually believe this self deluding guff, that if they move far enough to the right, borderline authoritarian fascism, that magically the majority will grasp this as being what they really wanted all along. It's a psychological problem of narrow minded ideologues and I've seen if before in those on the far left who are/were convinced that the public will really respond to extreme left policies if only they're properly explained to them.
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2024 13:36:54 GMT
As a matter of interest I put the numbers that sky have been chundering on about giving no majority for Labour and EC comes up with a Labour majority of 150+ which is of course absurd on just 34% of the vote but with the Tories on just 25% and a reasonable lib dem performance that's what comes out. I wonder how they achieved their' s, darts maybe! In 2005 Lab achieved a majority of 60 on just 35% of the vote, with Con on 32% and LD on 22%. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2024 13:40:58 GMT
So tories are predictably calling for the gvt to move yet further to the right in response to these elections when literally anyone with eyes and ears and consciousness can see that the lesson is the exact opposite. It's like they can't conceive of anything else, cars that can only turn the wheel to the right. Well pretty obviously that's going to mean they don't get where they want to go but will end up driving into a ditch sooner rather than later. I do think the lunatics actually believe this self deluding guff, that if they move far enough to the right, borderline authoritarian fascism, that magically the majority will grasp this as being what they really wanted all along. It's a psychological problem of narrow minded ideologues and I've seen if before in those on the far left who are/were convinced that the public will really respond to extreme left policies if only they're properly explained to them. Maybe the plan is no longer to win but to salvage as many seats as possible from the Reform onslaught to live to fight another day? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2024 13:42:35 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil I take it you are not counting the SNP as centre-left then? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 13:59:41 GMT
pjw1961I wasn't actually making any judgement it's just what their analysis said . If you want an opinion on Scotland SNP mostly centre left but there's an element in all secessionist/nationalist movements where the objective is more important than how you behave getting there.
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Post by graham on May 5, 2024 14:00:58 GMT
As a matter of interest I put the numbers that sky have been chundering on about giving no majority for Labour and EC comes up with a Labour majority of 150+ which is of course absurd on just 34% of the vote but with the Tories on just 25% and a reasonable lib dem performance that's what comes out. I wonder how they achieved their' s, darts maybe! In 2005 Lab achieved a majority of 60 on just 35% of the vote, with Con on 32% and LD on 22%. Labour obtained a 65 majority in 2005 having polled a GB vote share of 36% compared with 33% for the Tories. |
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Post by James E on May 5, 2024 14:01:18 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil About 70 in total , including seats already held. There are an additional 30 odd seats with a "medium" possibility. The poll was conducted in February the polling for the Lib dems hasn't changed significantly since then. While of course there's no guarantee of picking up all 55 but they are all winnable, to only pick up 10 is highly unlikely. Their own middle ground estimate for lib dem mps is 50 with a minimum of 30 and a max of around 60 , which seems plausible, there's an outside chance of a few more and official opposition status of the election campaign goes exceptionally badly for the Tories. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lib2seats_20240226.htmlElectoral Calculus's 'Top 60' seats are based on the " Lib Dems' closeness to winning", not on being "significantly ahead of other centre-left parties". This explains the inclusion of Cambridge, Bermondsey, and other Labour-held seats where the LDs were second. The list includes seats currently held by the LDs. EC's point is that while the LibDems topped the vote in these (after combining all 60) according to the FoN/EC MRP in Jan/Feb (as helpfully linked by oldnat yesterday) they are second to Labour in the 'medium' seats, which are the next-best 30 for them. |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2024 14:02:04 GMT
According to electoral calculus, who don't have an axe to grind the following are the " strong" seats for the Lib dems , where the Lib dems are regarded as significantly ahead of any of the other centre left parties according to their MRP. Bath, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bicester and Woodstock, Brecon Radnor and Cwm Tawe, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Devon North, Devon South, Didcot and Wantage, Dorking and Horley, Dorset West, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Edinburgh West, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, Epsom and Ewell, Esher and Walton, Farnham and Bordon, Fife North East, Finchley and Golders Green, Frome and East Somerset, Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Guildford, Hampstead and Highgate, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley and Thame, Honiton and Sidmouth, Kingston and Surbiton, Lewes, Mid Dunbartonshire, Newbury, Norfolk North, Orkney and Shetland, Oxford West and Abingdon, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Sheffield Hallam, Shropshire North, St Albans, St Ives, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Sussex Mid, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton and Wellington, Thornbury and Yate, Tunbridge Wells, Twickenham, Wells and Mendip Hills, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil I take it you are not counting the SNP as centre-left then? Perhaps Labour is not being counted as centre-left. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 14:05:39 GMT
Rent a gob George Galloway loses his shit when questioned on his archaic attitudes to sexuality and hangs up the phone on Lewis Goodall for daring to be a journalist.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 14:08:17 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 5, 2024 14:10:48 GMT
According to an FT report based on intelligence agency information from three countries we're very likely to be on the cusp of a series of violent acts of sabotage against infrastructure at the behest of the Russian state across Europe.
If these occur we should say hybrid, shmybrid and treat these as the open acts of warfare they are with the consequences that come from that.
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Post by peterbell on May 5, 2024 14:11:58 GMT
I totally agree with those who have commented on the poor performance of Sky during the election results. Although I often watch both (not at the same time), I tend to prefer Sky to BBC. However, I was getting so annoyed with Sky, my wife commented that I would be liking Keunsberg next - not much chance of that.
Re the GE prediction by Thrasher, based on the council results, well what a load of rubbish. No reference to the fact that Lab always perform better in GEs as many of those who vote locally for LDs, Greens & Indys will vote for the ABT at the GE and that is usually Lab. I count myself in that group and when I was canvassing for the LDs prior to 2010 election, a significant number of people said, "I will be voting LD in the local but Lab in the General". I seem to recollect that someone on here referred to typically a 10% increase in the Lab vote in a GE. The emphasis was on comparison with 1997 but that again excluded tha fact that times have changed. In 97 there was effectively no Green vote nor as many Indys and where there were Indys, they were mainly Tories whereas this year, left wing/Muslim groups provided most of the Indy vote. The Thrasher prediction was trumpeted by Sky at least every hour, without reference to current polling which has shown around a 20% Lab lead for the past year and is actually increasing slightly at present.
Having said the above, I did watch most of Sophie Ridge's election program on Sky last night which I thought was very good. However that may be because I think she is an excellent presenter and I like her smile!
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2024 14:27:07 GMT
There was no mainstream party advocating or even contemplating leaving the EU even if they used to blame it for anything they thought would be unpopular. This was despite a large proportion of the electorate wanting to leave. This went on for decades, so given the chance the great British public gave the traditional two-fingered salute to the lot of them. Great! Wikipedia reports that from 2013 to 2016 a steady number around 40% said they wanted to leave. You could call 40% a large proportion, but it was never a majority, what with 20% dont knows who therefore did not have a wish to leave. There has never been a majority wish to leave throughout the campaign. The whole leave campaign was about presenting a binary choice and forcing people to take a side, so as to get more voting to leave than voting to remain. In a situation where 60% were content with the status quo, its very questionable why the enormous upheval of leaving the Eu should have been permitted to happen. Whereas we now seem to have a rejoin majority? The best time to rejoin would be right now while we are still essentially run under EU rules. (though even a con government has found it very difficut to change that because its obviously more sensible to conform to EU regulations for trade purposes) At times since first joining there was a majority wanting to leave the EEC, EC or EU. The point is that even when that number fell to 40% (by the way around the percentage likely to give Labour a big majority in the GE), no mainstream party seriously questioned membership. There may have been some voices on each side, but not party policy. In a democracy this was wrong, and led to the rise of UKIP and eventually the referendum and leaving the EU. The parties brought it on themselves. As there is no way we could rejoin in less than a decade even if they wanted us it seems pointless discussing it any more and I'm not going to. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
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Post by steve on May 5, 2024 15:05:14 GMT
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