jib
Member
Posts: 2,997
Member is Online
|
Post by jib on May 24, 2024 13:33:47 GMT
...and now we get the Lab playbook. Lab is remarkably good at sustaining and amplifying doubts and superstitions. Lab has had double-digit poll leads for over a year. No-one seriously doubts that the electorate is thoroughly fed up of this government and that only a hopelessly incompetent or very radical Opposition wouldn't be preferred. No-one is seriously suggesting that Starmer's Lab falls into either of those categories. Only one prediction on the predictions thread doesn't have Lab winning a very comfortable majority, yet UKPR2 contributors are still talking about Ming vases, slippery floors and bacon sandwiches. Starmer could drip ketchup down his shirt whilst eating a bacon sandwich without having to worry about his majority. I'm probably more sceptical than most about VI polls, but even I'll be surprised if I don't wake up to a Lab majority on July 5th, so are UKPR2's Labourite contributors: (a) a thoroughly superstitious bunch; (b) suffering from the ingrained data scepticism that often seems to afflict people without a scientific or mathematical background; (c) campaigning; (d) all of the above? Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. I'd love to predict that Labour will win big, but the shadows of 1992 and 2015 need to loom large in their thinking. I just don't see Reform affecting the Tory VI much when it comes down to it, and I can see Sunak becoming some born again anti ULEZ petrol head as the campaign progresses - he'll probably end up ditching the battle bus for a Harley Davidson. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 13:35:40 GMT
At what point does all this become an implosion you can’t recover from? Are we not far from it, or is there a long way to go? There will presumably be a lot more sitting MPs removed by the electorate soon. For comparison 72 Conservative MPs retired before the 1997 General Election, so there was a fair exodus then as well, and 126 Tory MPs were defeated. (figures from the Times guide to the 1997 GE) Yes, I’m not just thinking about the impact of those retiring, but the whole thing, all the factors creating a runaway effect. How bad do things have to get till there is no way back? |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on May 24, 2024 13:38:10 GMT
PJW said .... "However, excessive gloating is not a good look ...".
... for those old enough, a certain rally in South Yorkshire thirty odd years ago, will forever be engraved on our consciousnesses until we depart this mortal coil. We've tried a sense of entitlement once, we weren't comfortable with us, it didn't suit us and we saw its consequences. Never again. So whilst I like Marr a lot, he is entirely wrong to identify a "sense of entitlement" within Labour. I'd like to see Marr or anyone for that matter, try to provide evidence of this non-existent thing.
Anyway, on sense of entitlement, I think us Labourites generally have its opposite 'quality' - whatever we want to call it - pessimism, fatalism, insufficient confidence, humility - pick your own word. I see us as the West Ham fans of the political world. Loyal, passionate, as hopeful as we can be whilst knowing that our rivals have dominated us for most of our existence. Silver-ware is rare, whilst theirs has piled up. Defeat can be grasped from the jaws of victory a la 1992 and I'd add 2015 to that. I refer you to the 2006 FA Cup Final for example (shudders at the memory).
So even when we, Labour, are now poll-wise, the equivalent of being three up with fifteen minutes to go, the nervousness is still there because our silverware is so rare, we still expect it to not come as easily as the armchair fans of other clubs looking on, think it will be for us. So there you are, Labour supporters of all other clubs - you're honorary irons now - you can thank me for it later.
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 24, 2024 13:44:37 GMT
I'm probably more sceptical than most about VI polls, but even I'll be surprised if I don't wake up to a Lab majority on July 5th, so are UKPR2's Labourite contributors: (a) a thoroughly superstitious bunch; (b) suffering from the ingrained data scepticism that often seems to afflict people without a scientific or mathematical background; (c) campaigning; (d) all of the above? Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. , I agree, and add that for political obsessives and Labour veterans there is a wealth of examples and experiences where the expected hasn't materialised - '92,'15,'17 and then there is Queensland. Its highly probable Labour will win comfortably, but other outcomes are still possible.
So its totally up to individuals if they want to vote on a belief Labour will win big; however, they should accept a risk that could backfire. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 24, 2024 13:49:25 GMT
PJW said .... "However, excessive gloating is not a good look ...".
So even when we, Labour, are now poll-wise, the equivalent of being three up with fifteen minutes to go, the nervousness is still there because our silverware is so rare, we still expect it to not come as easily as the armchair fans of other clubs looking on, think it will be for us. So there you are, Labour supporters of all other clubs - you're honorary irons now - you can thank me for it later. I'm confident Sunak would miss an open goal even if one should be presented. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on May 24, 2024 13:53:15 GMT
...and now we get the Lab playbook. Lab is remarkably good at sustaining and amplifying doubts and superstitions. Lab has had double-digit poll leads for over a year. No-one seriously doubts that the electorate is thoroughly fed up of this government and that only a hopelessly incompetent or very radical Opposition wouldn't be preferred. No-one is seriously suggesting that Starmer's Lab falls into either of those categories. Only one prediction on the predictions thread doesn't have Lab winning a very comfortable majority, yet UKPR2 contributors are still talking about Ming vases, slippery floors and bacon sandwiches. Starmer could drip ketchup down his shirt whilst eating a bacon sandwich without having to worry about his majority. I'm probably more sceptical than most about VI polls, but even I'll be surprised if I don't wake up to a Lab majority on July 5th, so are UKPR2's Labourite contributors: (a) a thoroughly superstitious bunch; (b) suffering from the ingrained data scepticism that often seems to afflict people without a scientific or mathematical background; (c) campaigning; (d) all of the above? Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. Pride before a fall and all that. Memories of '92 still linger even though I was a teenager then. The party and supporters don't have anything like the sense of entitlement that tories do and it'll still seem like a bit of a miracle to me when Starmer walks into number 10 (touch wood) next month. |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on May 24, 2024 13:55:53 GMT
Somebody in Sunak's campaign team thought it would be a good idea for him to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast. Cue the inevitable questions from journalists about captaining a sinking ship....
|
|
|
|
Post by athena on May 24, 2024 13:57:42 GMT
pjw1961So neither on UKPR2 nor in real life will Lab activists be using the spectre of a Tory victory to herd all anti-Tory voters into the Lab fold? There's an amnesty for supporters of minor parties or none? Hurrah!
|
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on May 24, 2024 13:58:05 GMT
Somebody in Sunak's campaign team thought it would be a good idea for him to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast. Cue the inevitable questions from journalists about captaining a sinking ship.... Jeez - seriously? Just clueless. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on May 24, 2024 14:00:09 GMT
domjg Turnout in Australia is typically >95%. There's always a small percentage of invalid votes (you can't choose 'none of the above', but you can 'vote informally' - what we call spoiling your ballot). Every so often Australia tinkers with the voting process to try to minimise the number of people who accidentally cast an informal vote. I'll dig up some data later if you're interested - it'll vary a bit depending on the election, because they use different systems in different elections. Thanks athena Don't worry I'll look into it as it's piqued my interest now. Thanks though. |
|
|
|
Post by athena on May 24, 2024 14:01:45 GMT
it'll still seem like a bit of a miracle to me when Starmer walks into number 10 (touch wood) next month. I'll put you down as '(a) superstitious' ! |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 14:01:47 GMT
An academic and idle thought, and we may need our more thorough polling archivists to corroborate, but are some of these sub 20 polling ratings for the Tories historical lows for one of our two major parties, certainly this close to a general election? I stand to be corrected, and I probably will be in due course, but I can't ever remember Labour plumbing the depths that the Tories are now. One struggles to see what the Tories are offering, to satisfy typical Tories. As opposed to high immigration, high taxes, mounting debt, services that Conservatives might actually care about (like getting driving licences and passports) haven’t been going swimmingly, nor has law and order, armed forces have declined… |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 24, 2024 14:01:50 GMT
There will presumably be a lot more sitting MPs removed by the electorate soon. For comparison 72 Conservative MPs retired before the 1997 General Election, so there was a fair exodus then as well, and 126 Tory MPs were defeated. (figures from the Times guide to the 1997 GE) Yes, I’m not just thinking about the impact of those retiring, but the whole thing, all the factors creating a runaway effect. How bad do things have to get till there is no way back? Well the 1997 retirements and losses amount to roughly two thirds of the Conservative parliamentary party and they came back from that - but it took 13 years and two more defeats. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 14:04:08 GMT
Yes, I’m not just thinking about the impact of those retiring, but the whole thing, all the factors creating a runaway effect. How bad do things have to get till there is no way back? Well the 1997 retirements and losses amount to roughly two thirds of the Conservative parliamentary party and they came back from that - but it took 13 years and two more defeats. Yes, presumably it has to be some way worse than that, though it does perhaps in part depend on whether there is something else to switch to instead… |
|
|
|
Post by athena on May 24, 2024 14:05:41 GMT
domjg Try Anthony Green for a starting point. He's the ABC's election analyst and has his own blog.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 24, 2024 14:06:18 GMT
pjw1961 So neither on UKPR2 nor in real life will Lab activists be using the spectre of a Tory victory to herd all anti-Tory voters into the Lab fold? There's an amnesty for supporters of minor parties or none? Hurrah! I don't think that would work at national level anyway. At local level, to remove a specific Tory MP then obviously yes. It is hardly unique to Labour as anyone who has received an "only the Liberal Democrats can win here" leaflet will know. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 14:06:52 GMT
It's The crofty . Stop, cessation, discontinue, terminate, desist. The English monitor. View AttachmentI quite like theses it pleases🤔 I only asked what it meant. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 24, 2024 14:10:39 GMT
Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. I'd love to predict that Labour will win big, but the shadows of 1992 and 2015 need to loom large in their thinking. I just don't see Reform affecting the Tory VI much when it comes down to it, and I can see Sunak becoming some born again anti ULEZ petrol head as the campaign progresses - he'll probably end up ditching the battle bus for a Harley Davidson. Tell me in what conceivable way that the 1992 and 2015 general elections remotely resemble this one in terms of polling patterns, the Parliaments that have preceded them, the political personalities involved, the mood of the electorate , the economic circumstances, the state of regional politics in Scotland and Wales .... We could go on. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 14:11:35 GMT
Strange post, given most Labour members/supporters on here are pretty confident of a handsome victory and have said so. As far as I can tell the most sceptical of a landslide are crossbat11 (Labour), Mercian (certainly not Labour) and Jib (implies he may/will vote Labour but not a member). However, excessive gloating is not a good look, so perhaps we are just trying to take it calmly. and I can see Sunak becoming some born again anti ULEZ petrol head as the campaign progresses - he'll probably end up ditching the battle bus for a Harley Davidson or a helicopter |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on May 24, 2024 14:16:37 GMT
The nadir was his reaction to the Salisbury poisoning. A moment in history where, had Corbyn been in charge, Putin might not have been put back in his box- might even have invaded Ukraine or something and if Putin had invaded Ukraine he'd have probably let the war drag on for two years. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 14:21:21 GMT
I'd love to predict that Labour will win big, but the shadows of 1992 and 2015 need to loom large in their thinking. I just don't see Reform affecting the Tory VI much when it comes down to it, and I can see Sunak becoming some born again anti ULEZ petrol head as the campaign progresses - he'll probably end up ditching the battle bus for a Harley Davidson. Tell me in what conceivable way that the 1992 and 2015 general elections remotely resemble this one in terms of polling patterns, the Parliaments that have preceded them, the political personalities involved, the mood of the electorate , the economic circumstances, the state of regional politics in Scotland and Wales .... We could go on. Twenty per cent plus leads… |
|
|
|
Post by graham on May 24, 2024 14:21:55 GMT
Not surprisingly Corbyn expelled from the Labour Party, joining Ramsay Macdonald as the only two Labour leaders to be expelled I believe George Barnes was also expelled - as were prominent figures such as Stafford Cripps and Aneurin Bevan in the late 1930s. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,382
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 24, 2024 14:23:28 GMT
Third poll since the election was called to show an increased Labour lead
We Think
As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this:
🔴 Lab 47% (+1)
🔵 Con 22% (-1)
⚪ Ref 12% (+1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟢 Green 6% (-2)
🟢 SNP 3% (+1)
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,703
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 24, 2024 14:28:29 GMT
Somebody in Sunak's campaign team thought it would be a good idea for him to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast. Cue the inevitable questions from journalists about captaining a sinking ship.... Jeez - seriously? Just clueless. It is amazing how things are going, have the blob penetrated his campaign team or summat? |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 24, 2024 14:31:38 GMT
The nadir was his reaction to the Salisbury poisoning. A moment in history where, had Corbyn been in charge, Putin might not have been put back in his box- might even have invaded Ukraine or something and if Putin had invaded Ukraine he'd have probably let the war drag on for two years. ? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 14:31:49 GMT
I wonder if any of the utterly bonkers Tories who have been mooted as the next leader of the opposition will really want to be in charge of fewer than a hundred actual MPs.
I saw the headline from the Express yesterday - utterly bizarre. Hard to see why they don’t feel embarrassed about such rubbish.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 14:32:41 GMT
A moment in history where, had Corbyn been in charge, Putin might not have been put back in his box- might even have invaded Ukraine or something and if Putin had invaded Ukraine he'd have probably let the war drag on for two years. ? Irony. |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 24, 2024 14:35:25 GMT
PJW, Shevii is being ironic.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 24, 2024 14:39:07 GMT
Third poll since the election was called to show an increased Labour lead We Think As Rishi Sunak’s suit dries out and Keir Starmer’s copy of #ThingsCanOnlyGetBetter is stashed for another day, our first poll since the #GeneralElection was called looks like this: 🔴 Lab 47% (+1) 🔵 Con 22% (-1) ⚪ Ref 12% (+1) 🟠 LD 8% (NC) 🟢 Green 6% (-2) 🟢 SNP 3% (+1) Alarm bells. SNP on a roll. The Swinney effect?? |
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 316
|
Post by patrickbrian on May 24, 2024 14:44:38 GMT
Well, it's started. Isn't it exciting? There's some point to UKpolling again for non-footy enthusiasts! Personally I think Sunak called it because he's simply had enough of pretending to be a prime minister, feels extremely unappreciated, hates most of his MPs (who wouldn't?) and fancies a nice summer in California then back to the business of making serious money. (I have of course no evidence for this view). I thought he'd be bad, but so far he's terrible; makes May look like Harold Wilson. Mostly he reminds me of Moss from the IT crowd, but less authentic. So while like everyone else I think 'surely they can't really do as badly as the polls suggest', I also wonder if with his leadership they might do even worse. Can't comment on Labour yet, but surely if labour are unconvincing, will not this benefit the Lib Dems? Our local Tory Boy, Anthony Mangal, has a stonking majority, but the Lib Dems have a very strong candidate, the Greens have stood aside, and labour have yet to select a candidate. I shall bother to vote, as will my wife , whose first opportunity it is, after getting citizenship following being threatened with expulsion after Brexit... Will need a postal vote though as we'll be on holiday.... Is this going to be a factor?
I look forward to many pithy, witty and informative comments! (just not too long please, with the exception of James E and NeilJ who actually know what they are talking about...)
|
|
