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Post by shevii on May 1, 2024 14:35:32 GMT
Lord Heseltine might be a little startled to read that he has shuffled off this mortal coil.  Wasn't that one of the ones Chris Morris used on his radio show and got a 6 match ban for or am I getting confused with some other politician he did it on. "No news yet on the death of Michael Heseltine- if we get any news by the end of the show we'll let you know". |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 14:40:53 GMT
one might call it the Polling diet, Andy? (Or the Election Selection. Courtesy of this board, have come to see election nights as an evening when one might indulge a few things one wouldn’t partake of normally) The thought of sustaining myself during a long night of the Emily, Alistair and Rory show on celery and beetroot, prods me closer to the Election Selection. My dear old granddad's homemade beetroot wine bore no resemblance to a nice Malbec. might even feel a tad virtuous with a nice Argentinian Malbec Andy, as some argue that the thicker skins of the grape mean it has more antioxidants than some others. (Though that can be a bit of a rabbit hole…) |
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Post by jimjam on May 1, 2024 14:47:48 GMT
Isa, Stephen Fisher was heavily criticised for predicting in 2013 or thereabouts that despite the current polling his modelling suggested a Tory win and margin that could produced an OM.
He turned out to be right of course.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 14:49:43 GMT
Shoring up the base, limiting the damage and reclaiming some Reform UK deserters is the game here. No more no less. It might actually work for them too but this is palliative politics for a party in terminal decline. Tory giants like MacMillan, Butler, McLeod, Heseltine and Prior rolling in their graves I expect. Lord Heseltine might be a little startled to read that he has shuffled off this mortal coil. Political grave, @isa, political grave.... 😆 |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 1, 2024 15:15:34 GMT
See, the "hostile environment" works! Asylum seekers crossing from UK to Ireland are doing so because the Conservatives have made the UK an unpleasant place to be, while Ireland is seen as hospitable and efficient.
Perhaps, a cheaper and more effective way to reduce migrants to the UK would be to insist that they have to stay, and there's no way out!
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 15:28:50 GMT
@jimjam The Keith Houchen link is one for Carfers, I think. Scorer of a brilliant and now iconic diving header in Coventry City's famous FA Cup Final win against Spurs in 1987. The man is a Sky Blues legend. P S. Taking a lunch break at Greggs whilst writing this after completing my last leafleting round in Redditch. My final Tale from the Campaign trail to come later today. That header never gets old: www.dailymotion.com/video/x1bcdyl(Graham might approve of the leafleting. Might mean he moves to Redditch) |
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Post by davem on May 1, 2024 15:34:23 GMT
Our fascist regime appear to think a video featuring people being dragged from their homes pending forced rendition is good news. Our local Tory candidate is playing the anti immigrant card today. At the council budget setting meeting in March the Tories moved an amendment to have a referendum on the City supporting the Sanctuary City Charity, not a City of Sanctuary. The cost of the referendum on supporting a charity would be £380,000, which would have to be taken from essential service. This was clearly a gimmick so they could put out a leaflet claiming Labour councillors had denied the people of our ward their vote on immigration! They are getting desperate. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,748
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Post by steve on May 1, 2024 15:37:51 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 15:43:37 GMT
For a nothing politician Marjorie Taylor Greene does seem very full of herself and have a huge public profile for just banging on about other politicians, most of whom are actually doing stuff. Here is today’s bullshit: “ Greene says she'll demand vote on removing Johnson next week After a lengthy denunciation of Mike Johnson, Majorie Taylor Greene said she will call for a vote on her motion to remove him as speaker of the House next week. “Next week, I am going to be calling this motion to vacate, absolutely calling it,” Greene said. She indicated she thought the vote would hurt vulnerable Democrats: I can’t wait to see Democrats go out and support a Republican speaker, and have to go home to their primaries and have to run for Congress again, having supported our Republican speaker, a Christian conservative, I think that’ll play well. I’m excited about it.” How weird. Infamous encounter between Maitlis and Greene (about space lasers!) m.youtube.com/watch?v=kk-8llel1wM |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 15:50:22 GMT
They'll also be much more inclined to believe that the world is flat, that the moon landings never happened and other nonsense. Quite worrying. I read masses of science fiction when young and though a lot of it was thought-provoking I didn't believe any of it. Possibly because video clips are more convincing, a lot of people seem to be very credulous today. Hard to credit I know, but there are some posters on this board who appear to think that left-wing ideas are good!  Surely the argument (and evidence) is that those moving to the left are actually the better educated. Is it the right wing minority amongst the youth who believe the world is flat and moon landings didnt happen? Or differently educated. Higher Ed tends to favour people handy verbally, and related jobs favouring language tend to be more protected from foreign competition, so they can vote for Remain in self-interest. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,552
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Post by neilj on May 1, 2024 16:00:51 GMT
Redfield Wilton blue wall
Labour leads by 9% in Blue Wall.
Lowest ever % for Conservatives in the Blue Wall.
Blue Wall Westminster VI (28 Apr):
Labour 34% (–)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 23% (+3)
Reform UK 11% (-3)
Green 5% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 31 Mar
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Post by barbara on May 1, 2024 16:13:08 GMT
They certainly are. My hope, is that the women from the Bible Belt/Southern states etc will say they'll vote for Trump in front of their spouses but in the polling booths go another way. American women need to save America and possibly the world because the men are too thick. Trump 2 is going to be worse than The Shinning where Jack N looks deranged with a mad "here's Trump," dumb grin. You may be right but I retain hope that the nature of Trump himself means his presidency wouldn't be 'quite' as disruptive as some think, at least in an ideological sense. It would still be chaotic and unpredictable of course. Firstly, he's not a lifelong conservative ideologue like many on the republican right and like even Newt Gingrich was 30 odd years ago when all this polarisation and obstructionism first got started. He was a registered democrat not that long ago but of course in reality he has no principle or conviction at all other than himself and 'winning'. What does he want? He wants to soothe his 'big guy' ego by being re-elected, by being able to snub Biden. All he is interested in is himself. He has no interest, I would wager, in what comes after him, he has no skin in the game with the Christian conservative movement and does not care whether they prosper or not. They were simply one of the horses he rode to allow him to get to power. If other horses are available he would be willing to ride them instead. His position adjustment on abortion and Ukraine recently shows that he is to some extent willing to be pragmatic if he senses a change in direction will benefit him. The 'freedom caucus' kidded themselves that we was their champion but he was just using them as he does with everyone and they've now been shown the clear boundaries of their power. That's what they all said about Boris Johnson. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 16:17:17 GMT
Redfield Wilton blue wall Labour leads by 9% in Blue Wall. Lowest ever % for Conservatives in the Blue Wall. Blue Wall Westminster VI (28 Apr): Labour 34% (–) Conservative 25% (-1) Liberal Democrat 23% (+3) Reform UK 11% (-3) Green 5% (-1) Other 1% (+1) Changes +/- 31 Mar On the basis of this poll, the scope for tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem voters in these seats is almost endless isn't it? |
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Post by barbara on May 1, 2024 16:17:41 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. I haven't had a single leaflet from any party in the 11years I've lived here. I still know who to vote for. How do you reconcile your belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ with your oft expressed lack of tolerance and understandng of others? Just asking as an atheist |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 16:20:14 GMT
@jimjam The Keith Houchen link is one for Carfers, I think. Scorer of a brilliant and now iconic diving header in Coventry City's famous FA Cup Final win against Spurs in 1987. The man is a Sky Blues legend. P S. Taking a lunch break at Greggs whilst writing this after completing my last leafleting round in Redditch. My final Tale from the Campaign trail to come later today. That header never gets old: www.dailymotion.com/video/x1bcdyl(Graham might approve of the leafleting. Might mean he moves to Redditch) I'm on the way to Norwich now in a last ditch attempt to rescue Graham's Labour vote. The future of Norwich City Council may well depend on it. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,748
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Post by steve on May 1, 2024 16:27:56 GMT
barbara As a youngster we never had any leaflets or canvassers or God squad Joe's at the door , I've never worked out why. Attachment Deleted
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Post by graham on May 1, 2024 17:06:47 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. I haven't had a single leaflet from any party in the 11years I've lived here. I still know who to vote for. How do you reconcile your belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ with your oft expressed lack of tolerance and understandng of others? Just asking as an atheist In what way am I being intolerant here? I was a Labour activist in this area from 1983 - 1996 and know how exceptionally good the party's organisation was here even in the very dark days of the 1980s. It is almost beyond belief that today at a time when Labour is striding ahead in the polls the organisation has clearly collapsed -with no posters to be seen anywhere and leaflets not having been delivered to parts of the ward. Admittedly it has become a Labour v Green contest with the latter having prevailed over the last three years at City Council elections. The Green first elected in 2021 is up for re-election and the failure to seriously challenge him is likely to mean near certain defeat in this ward at next year's County Council elections. I fear Labour has now lost this ward for years to come and that any future recovery will need the Greens to lead the City Council for a period. Subsequent disillusionment with their performance might then pave the way to win back these seats - as occurred in Brighton. Something similar happened post 2002 when the LDs briefly led a minority administration here - though this ward remained comfortably in Labour hands. |
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Post by barbara on May 1, 2024 17:18:13 GMT
I haven't had a single leaflet from any party in the 11years I've lived here. I still know who to vote for. How do you reconcile your belief in the teachings of Jesus Christ with your oft expressed lack of tolerance and understandng of others? Just asking as an atheist In what way am I being intolerant here? I was a Labour activist in this area from 1983 - 1996 and know how exceptionally good the party's organisation was here even in the very dark days of the 1980s. It is almost beyond belief that today at a time when Labour is striding ahead in the polls the organisation has clearly collapsed -with no posters to be seen anywhere and leaflets not having been delivered to parts of the ward. Admittedly it has become a Labour v Green contest with the latter having prevailed over the last three years at City Council elections. The Green first elected in 2021 is up for re-election and the failure to seriously challenge him is likely to mean near certain defeat in this ward at next year's County Council elections. I fear Labour has now lost this ward for years to come and that any future recovery will need the Greens to lead the City Council for a period. Subsequent disillusionment with their performance might then pave the way to win back these seats - as occurred in Brighton. Something similar happened post 2002 when the LDs briefly led a minority administration here - though this ward remained comfortably in Labour hands. The intolerance is your disproportionate response to not receiving a leaflet. A more tolerant person would have said: 1. perhaps they are working really hard but there are just not enough of them OR 2. perhaps they are targetting more marginal areas OR 3. well I would have liked a leaflet but it doesn't make any difference to my voting for them OR 4. Well I'm voting for them anyway so they've saved the money on my leaflet OR 5. Well I guess I'm out of touch with modern life at my grand old age of 70 and nowadays there are probably better and more cost effective ways to reach voters OR 6. Perhaps they're saving money for the GOTV acativities ....... Or any other number of more charitable thoughts than the immediate one of 'me, me, me' I don't recall Jesus saying that. |
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Post by jimjam on May 1, 2024 17:23:00 GMT
Graham, do you have a no junkmail sign on your door?
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 17:24:36 GMT
Maybe Graham is bemoaning the lack of a Gestapo-lite candidate standing in his ward.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 17:25:27 GMT
For those who worry about Long Covid…
“A new study shows that an abnormally active immune system, a characteristic of long COVID patients, largely subsides two years after the initial infection. The finding offers hope that gradual recovery is possible in some long COVID patients.
One in 10 COVID-19 patients, even those with a mild infection, suffer from a range of symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and depression. These lingering symptoms collectively called long COVID are now recognized as disability under the Americans with Disabilities Act and can continue for weeks, months, or even years.
While scientists don’t know what causes long COVID, a hyperactive immune system appears to play a major role in persistent symptoms. A new study, published in Nature Communications, now shows that this heightened immune response calms down in long COVID patients 24 months after initial infection.
"It looks like those people's immune systems have largely returned to what we would expect," says Gail Matthews, an infectious disease physician at St Vincent's Hospital, Sydney, who led the study. "And that's really good."”
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 1, 2024 17:26:55 GMT
In what way am I being intolerant here? I was a Labour activist in this area from 1983 - 1996 and know how exceptionally good the party's organisation was here even in the very dark days of the 1980s. It is almost beyond belief that today at a time when Labour is striding ahead in the polls the organisation has clearly collapsed -with no posters to be seen anywhere and leaflets not having been delivered to parts of the ward. Admittedly it has become a Labour v Green contest with the latter having prevailed over the last three years at City Council elections. The Green first elected in 2021 is up for re-election and the failure to seriously challenge him is likely to mean near certain defeat in this ward at next year's County Council elections. I fear Labour has now lost this ward for years to come and that any future recovery will need the Greens to lead the City Council for a period. Subsequent disillusionment with their performance might then pave the way to win back these seats - as occurred in Brighton. Something similar happened post 2002 when the LDs briefly led a minority administration here - though this ward remained comfortably in Labour hands. The intolerance is your disproportionate response to not receiving a leaflet. A more tolerant person would have said: 1. perhaps they are working really hard but there are just not enough of them OR 2. perhaps they are targetting more marginal areas OR 3. well I would have liked a leaflet but it doesn't make any difference to my voting for them OR 4. Well I'm voting for them anyway so they've saved the money on my leaflet OR 5. Well I guess I'm out of touch with modern life at my grand old age of 70 and nowadays there are probably better and more cost effective ways to reach voters OR 6. Perhaps they're saving money for the GOTV acativities ....... Or any other number of more charitable thoughts than the immediate one of 'me, me, me' I don't recall Jesus saying that. 7. “Thank feck they didn’t send an effing leaflet!” 👍👍👍 |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 1, 2024 17:35:35 GMT
Graham, do you have a no junkmail sign on your door? Well, that gets rid of the Tory and Reform UK leafleters, but not necessarily those delivering on behalf of other parties. |
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Post by shevii on May 1, 2024 17:44:14 GMT
Graham, do you have a no junkmail sign on your door? Is there official policy on this from any of the parties (I think you were being semi serious)? I've wondered myself about this one but always put one through anyway as it's not exactly junk as such and no-one told me not to. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on May 1, 2024 18:13:23 GMT
I have always voted Labour in Norwich at local elections and had every intention of doing so this week. I find the failure to deliver a single leaflet thoroughly discourteous and for the first time ever will be spoiling my ballot paper. From the outside that appears a petulant response! There could be many reasons why a leaflet did not reach you, most would involve no discourteous treatment whatsoever. Why would you not exercise your democratic rights (some, including me, would say responsibility) to at least seek to influence the effect on your local services? It was also the answer I gave to Colin when he used to complain about party political activity, canvassing and leaflets and suggested we should all stop. Some people get the hump with you do canvass or leaflet them and some people get the hump if you don't. I've met angry voters complaining they don't know the name of your candidate when you know damn well they have binned all the election communications  |
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Post by alec on May 1, 2024 18:18:11 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - re the long covid study; worth mentioning that there are many who have had LC for >2 years already, and the causal pathways seem different in different patients. Some do display slow recoveries, but many do not (yet). There is also evidence that LC can be worsened/reactivated upon reinfection.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on May 1, 2024 18:20:19 GMT
Interesting video of the detention of the sword wielding individual in London. While some might see this as a violent incident what struck me is if I'd been a young officer on the scene back in the mid 1980's my choices would have been to shoot him with my firearm or risk serious injury trying to physically restrain him. I'd have shot him but I'm glad these officers didn't have to make that decision. youtu.be/EBuueYWCle4?si=lPjxRNv6kQMZUc3mHad this been in Germany he would probably have been shot, that's what's happened in similar cases there with someone threatening others with a weapon like this. In the US without a doubt I would have thought. Yes he would have been shot in the US but of course he would have been armed with an AR15 and a couple of sidearms. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on May 1, 2024 18:26:27 GMT
Graham, do you have a no junkmail sign on your door? That never stops me. Vital election communications are not junk to my mind (unless from the Tories of course). |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,552
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Post by neilj on May 1, 2024 18:27:54 GMT
West mids Mayoral average...nail biter
@electionmapsuk
West Midlands Mayoral Election Weighted Polling Average:
Parker (LAB): 40.3% (+0.5)
Street (CON): 39.6% (-9.1)
Williams (RFM): 7.1% (+4.9)
Harper-Nunes (GRN): 6.1% (+0.3)
Virk (LDM): 3.6% (+0.1)
Yakoob (IND): 3.2% (New)
Changes w/ 2021 Election
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,614
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Post by pjw1961 on May 1, 2024 18:30:52 GMT
Some yougov predictions on their MRP (which for all I know will go down to ward level but maybe not be so accurate on turnout in the locals)- I do have my doubts about this one: Are YouGov reporting Norwich as to close to call because of they are expecting high levels of spoiled ballot papers? |
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