pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2024 14:39:12 GMT
James E - I acknowledge the numbers, but they are polls not actual votes. My point is that just as there has never been a UK GE where UNS has fully predicted the results correctly, nor has there ever been a UK GE where a proportional loss model would have done so. There was certainly some evidence of proportional losses in 1997 but it was not universal. This is not to say that it won't happen in 2024, and my guess is that proportional losses may well be more marked than ever before, but my instinct is that reality will still come up short of current polling due to political factors like the past voting history of constituencies, the degree of party capacity and campaigning, tactical voting and so on. Putting it another way, UNS and a proportional loss model when applied to individual constituencies will both be 'right' and 'wrong' to some extent. It will interesting to see which is more accurate and that can only be determined after the election. Kellner clearly thinks it will be UNS, I tend to agree results will be more proportional to the size of the previous Tory vote, but its a bit too soon to call the UNS advocates "silly" as NeilJ did as we don't have the hard evidence to back it up yet.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 14:39:41 GMT
The report says he's resigned from the Tory party and won't stand for re-election. So presumably his constituents get an " independent " no they didn't vote for!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2024 14:40:43 GMT
Report in the Times that Menzies is about to stand down as an MP. I suppose Sunak could find some 'bad people' to lock him in a flat somewhere so he can't resign.
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Post by graham on Apr 21, 2024 14:52:18 GMT
Report in the Times that Menzies is about to stand down as an MP. Is that immediately or at the General Election? Yet to be clarified.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 15:03:45 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 15:04:45 GMT
But meanwhile genuine corruption
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Post by moby on Apr 21, 2024 15:07:00 GMT
Oh yeah, we are playing today aren’t we! Obviously we are up against it batters, but we are known for springing last minute surprises - e.g. Wolves got caught out, led into thinking we were playing five at the back, only we didn’t play five at the back - so let’s see what they can come up with today. Maybe we can smuggle an extra man on the pitch… Forest take on Everton at Goodison today in a relegation 6-pointer. Though if we lose we'll appeal and hopefully it will be reduced to 4. Well after another poor performance as a Toffee I'm just grateful for the 3 points. Forest fans will be hacked off with some of those VAR decisions.
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Post by nickpoole on Apr 21, 2024 15:16:25 GMT
umm in the absence of any electrics can anybody (Dave?) tell me how Palace are doing at half time to West Ham?
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Post by isa on Apr 21, 2024 15:17:02 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 15:33:04 GMT
pjw1961The reason I think UNS is silly is in the current context of a big Labour swing, it says there will be the same swing as Birmingham Ladywoood as Telford. If you are talking about small swings, it will make little difference, but historically the bigger the swing the more UNS is found wanting That's not to say it's completely redundant, but with a big swing you are likely to see even bigger swings in areas where Labour doesn't already have large majorities. That's mathematics, if Labour are already on 70% plus you are not going to get double didget swings, where as seats where Labour are on 30% or so it's more likely. In terms of seats this will give a much bigger number of seats than under UNS
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Post by johntel on Apr 21, 2024 15:53:21 GMT
Forest take on Everton at Goodison today in a relegation 6-pointer. Though if we lose we'll appeal and hopefully it will be reduced to 4. Well after another poor performance as a Toffee I'm just grateful for the 3 points. Forest fans will be hacked off with some of those VAR decisions. After the tweet the club just put out I think it'll be increased to 8. For anyone who's interested, Forest asked before the game for the VAR ref to be changed because he's an avid Luton supporter. The request was turned down and he proceeded to turn down 3 clear penalty appeals. Do you think we have a legal case steve? Oops, I forgot!
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Apr 21, 2024 16:26:39 GMT
Try as they may, they still can’t kill the FA Cup. This is amazing. As a band nearly said, mama, we’re all Cov fans now.
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Post by Rafwan on Apr 21, 2024 16:46:05 GMT
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Post by James E on Apr 21, 2024 17:05:06 GMT
James E - I acknowledge the numbers, but they are polls not actual votes. My point is that just as there has never been a UK GE where UNS has fully predicted the results correctly, nor has there ever been a UK GE where a proportional loss model would have done so. There was certainly some evidence of proportional losses in 1997 but it was not universal. This is not to say that it won't happen in 2024, and my guess is that proportional losses may well be more marked than ever before, but my instinct is that reality will still come up short of current polling due to political factors like the past voting history of constituencies, the degree of party capacity and campaigning, tactical voting and so on. Putting it another way, UNS and a proportional loss model when applied to individual constituencies will both be 'right' and 'wrong' to some extent. It will interesting to see which is more accurate and that can only be determined after the election. Kellner clearly thinks it will be UNS, I tend to agree results will be more proportional to the size of the previous Tory vote, but its a bit too soon to call the UNS advocates "silly" as NeilJ did as we don't have the hard evidence to back it up yet. I posted some comparative figures a few months ago, to contrast YouGov's regional cross-breaks to what UNS would predict. The two followed almost completely opposite patterns, and I think this is now so clearly established that it really is "silly" (or at least ill-informed) to expect the results to conform to UNS. And there are good recent precedents for this, as we have seen the UK's electoral geography shift from a point in 2001 and 2005 when the Tories appeared to need a 13% lead to achieve a majority to 2017 and 2019, when just 3-4% would be enough. Peter Keller himself has provided some useful detail on what UNS 'should' look like, as one of his blogs mentioned a rule-of-thumb of '5 seats per 1% lead', which is the same as 10-per-1%-swing. I believe that the pattern of Labour targets corresponds closely to this, so for example a 10% swing on UNS gives Labour about 100 seats. However, MRPs and other detailed models all seem to work out in the region of 14-17 seats per 1% swing. And I would be very confident that we will get at least the low end of that range. This is pretty much what happened in 1997, when the 'semi-proportionate' outcome gave Labour 147 seats rather than the 105-ish that UNS would have predicted, and overall 14 seats per 1% swing.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 17:08:23 GMT
Do the Met Police really think that being "openly Jewish" is provocative. It all reminds me of the Battle of Cable Street in 1936 when the Met Police were there to support Moseley's fascists in their desire to march through the, then, heavily Jewish East End. Except rather the opposite way round, if a guy who has dressed so as to appear obviously jewish turns up at a palestinian protest. Separating them before trouble starts is not antisemitic.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Apr 21, 2024 17:14:38 GMT
umm in the absence of any electrics can anybody (Dave?) tell me how Palace are doing at half time to West Ham? Rafwan was spot on. There was no game. If anyone tells you any different, blank then - they’re a bit weird. Our season ended on Thursday so we can’t have played today. ⚒🥳😉
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 17:19:49 GMT
Mark Menzies has resigned from thee Conservative Party and says he won’t stand at the next election In the meantime he will be an independent MP
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 17:26:08 GMT
Survation asked which party their voters (close to 1,000 of them) would support if Reform stood aside, and this produced the following: Con 29.3% (+3.1) Lab 46.5% (+1.5) LD 10.9% (+0.5) Green 4.6% (+0.4) SNP+PC 4.1% (+0.2) Others 4.5% (+2.6) (Comparisons to Survation's standard VI question) The benefit to the Conservatives is therefore only about 20% of the redistributed Reform UK vote (of which they get 37% to Labour's 18%). Note that the 'others' pick up over 30% of those who would have supported Reform, and that is in addition to those who had given UKIP, Reclaim, Heritage or whatever as their first choice. Because of this, the combined vote for the Tories + other small RoC parties is probably still around 33%. www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling(see link at bottom of page for results with Reform standing aside) I dont understand your analysis, the comments in the paragraph dont seem to have anything to do with the tabulated results. ie table says 29% of reform would switch to con, seems clear. Text says benefit to con is 20%? Then says benefit to con is 37%?
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2024 17:27:21 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wCommiserations. Incredible game though- hope your blood pressure comes down quickly.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 17:39:33 GMT
Danny "again, this suggests we have a housing shortage and have exported it to the canaries. Where either they have built houses for us to use,the." Where do you get that idea from the number of British people who live in the canary islands is around 10% of the foreign born population about 2% of the total population, overwhelmingly British permanent residents like the Canarians themselves live in Santa Cruz in Tenerife and Las Palmas in Gran Canaria. The overseas born population of the canaries is actually falling, Brexit impacted UK immigration and second home ownership. This issue is largely unrelated to UK citizens. I dont. What I mean is that if a family goes on holiday for 2 weeks it occupies a house for 2 weeks. Its likely this house will be used by tourists all weeks tourists are willing to come and will not be available for locals. However, that wasnt my point, my point was that if Uk citizens holidayed in the UK we would need a lot more homes for them to use during their holidays. Since this will be concentrated in good weather, wouldnt surprise me if you would need 10% more houses so there is somewhere for people to stay while on holiday. But if they all go abroad you dont need any of them. Thus we have exported demand for houses in the uk abroad. I'd put this the other way around, back in the first half of the 20th century most brits went on holiday in britain. This changed, so most went abroad. That freed up housing which became part of the general stock and relieved some of the otherwise shortage. Hastings is a case in point, in Victorian times a resort town with big building development for tourists. By 1960 in economic collapse because the tourists had gone. Actually Hastings beame one of the areas earmarked for people and industry being moved out of London, so it got a recovery in the 1960s. This in turn petered out when Thatcher reversed the policy of reducing the size of London and started expanding it again. Most of the exported industry just faded away. Hastings was then noted for its (relatively) low property prices, though this slack was partly taken up by government exporting undesireables such as refugees and tenants dependant on benefits to Hastings from anywhere nicer and more expensive.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 17:42:16 GMT
Well we made a game of it…
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 17:49:08 GMT
Mark Menzies has resigned from thee Conservative Party and says he won’t stand at the next election In the meantime he will be an independent MP That just saves them having to investigate and explain what really happened. He carries on in post until the election avoiding an embarassing by election.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Apr 21, 2024 17:51:35 GMT
Double post.
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Apr 21, 2024 17:52:33 GMT
Well we made a game of it… It went beyond that. Cov were magnificent. You deserved to win. If your disallowed goal had been scored by the Mancs, ITV would have been on for the next hour trying to prove it wasn’t offside. And they may well have been right. Yet, cos it’s not one of the big boys they love on so quick. . Anyway, my cry in the final will be the same as today - c’mon City!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 18:02:39 GMT
Try as they may, they still can’t kill the FA Cup. This is amazing. As a band nearly said, mama, we’re all Cov fans now. Half-an-hour to go and three nil down, things looked pretty grim, but then a reminder of the stat that Cov. score more than half their goals in the last half hour, and recalling the quarter final, hope sprang anew…
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 18:05:44 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Commiserations. Incredible game though- hope your blood pressure comes down quickly. Thanks Shev. I’m happy we recovered to take it to the wire, given we were three-nil down. We don’t own our own ground you know…
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 18:08:52 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Commiserations. Incredible game though- hope your blood pressure comes down quickly. Thanks Shev. I’m happy we recovered to take it to the wire, given we were three-nil down. We don’t own our own ground you know… What the FA Cup is about
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 18:18:38 GMT
It went beyond that. Cov were magnificent. You deserved to win. If your disallowed goal had been scored by the Mancs, ITV would have been on for the next hour trying to prove it wasn’t offside. And they may well have been right. Yet, cos it’s not one of the big boys they love on so quick. . Anyway, my cry in the final will be the same as today - c’mon City! Yep, it was about as close as it gets: a goal disallowed by the slimmest of margins, right at the end of extra time. Still, Wembley twice in two years ain’t so bad…
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 18:20:54 GMT
Thanks Shev. I’m happy we recovered to take it to the wire, given we were three-nil down. We don’t own our own ground you know… What the FA Cup is about Yes, we were denied at the death, as you were in the last round. It does add to the excitement
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 21, 2024 19:24:39 GMT
Yes, we were denied at the death, as you were in the last round. It does add to the excitement A great effort from the Sky Blues at Wembley, by the sound of it. I say by the sound of it because I was at the Villa v Bournemouth* game at the same time so saw none of it. We did follow the scoreline and the last we knew before we left the stadium was that United were leading 3-0. Accordingly, we'd sort of given it up and were discussing how disappointing an afternoon it must have been for the Cov hordes at Wembley. However, when we'd walked about 20 minutes, and were approaching our car, someone walking alongside us, his eyes focused on his smartphone,let out a loud exclamation; "Bloody hell, Coventry have just equalised in the 95th minute. A penalty!" He showed us the scoreline on his phone as evidence after we'd expressed doubt about the news he was imparting. We thought it a likely wind up at first. We were wrong. So, with the radio on during our 40 minute drive homewards, we listened to the entire dramatic extra time and the first few penalties of the shoot out. We parked up quickly outside my mate's house (I was dropping him off and had a further 25 minute drive to my home), and rushed into his house, switched the TV on and watched the climax of the shootout. It didn't go well from a Cov point of view, alas, as we now all know. Still, a noble effort, and I hope Callum O'Hare, the former Villa player who was the first person to miss his penalty for Cov, doesn't get too much stick for his former club associations. He did get a goal in normal time, remember. *Villa 3 Bournemouth 1 - goals from Morgan Rogers, Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey.
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