c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 6:29:00 GMT
Well over at the Telegraph comments section, it would seem some feel betrayed over immigration, and some feel betrayed over Brexit more generally, that there wasn’t a bonfire of regulations. Some are pissed off at what they perceive as the sabotage of Truss: the way the BoE started the Quantitative tightening the day before her budget*, and the leak of the OBR figures. Then you get the Remainers chipping in, who obviously aren’t so keen on Reform but still don’t care for the government… * headline in the Telegraph “ Jeremy Hunt urged to review Bank of England’s independence for BoE” The Telegraph maybe a self selecting audience, especially in view of some of their batshit crazy recent headlines/stories www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/19/fourteen-years-of-tory-rule-have-left-britain-a-lazy-mess/'Fourteen years of Tory rule have left Britain a lazy, dangerous, Left-wing mess' What we do know from polling is that the tories have lost as many votes to the left of them as to the right. They are in a cleft stick, whichever direction they go in they're likely to lose support. What I'm pretty sure of though is that they'll never out Reform, Reform. The siren voices telling them to go even further right will lead them into a dead end politically Well yes of course it’s a self-selecting audience, that’s part of why I read it*, to find out what they think, as I don’t know about you Neil but I don’t tend to hang in those sorts of circles**. You get a self-selecting audience over at the Guardian too (quite a lot of righties pretending to be lefties etc.). Regarding the cleft stick, the Tories under Sunak with the globalists back in charge look like they are continuing to pursue a globalist strategy - game-changing amounts of immigration plus leaving a big enough debt to try and thwart any Leftie pro-state investments - so even with a cleft stick, it doesn’t matter if they lose, the die is cast. (Whether it really is cast though…) Regarding the headline, yes that was my point: I was indeed recognising that this was their view and elaborating on why they seem to think it’s a “left wing mess”: i.e. they think it’s so because of all the immigration, and the maintenance of a lot of regulation from the EU days. (Perhaps ironically, some of this is right-wing rather than left-wing policy - mass immigration to drive down wages, and using regulation to control Capital rather than state ownership to eliminate it - but there you go, that’s the crazy gaslighting world we live in) * and for the gardening, obvs. ** part of my point was that despite the self-seiecting audience, you get some variation, e.g. ranging from hardline leavers to Remainers.
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 21, 2024 6:32:39 GMT
... All that said, it seems pretty obvious that Reform are benefitting from disillusionment with the established parties, but I suspect they will be drastically squeezed when people are required to cast actual votes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if many of those indicating support for Reform now won't vote at all. We should remember too that there has always been a Far Right vote in British politics and Respect will be the beneficiaries of this often unspoken voting group who may feel ignored and uncatered for during general elections, certainly since the the electoral demise of NF, EDL etc. Did you mean Reform? I agree with everything else apart from the implication that Reform are Far Right. Compared to Communist perhaps, but not to NF or EDL. A good spot my fellow Droitwich frequenter. I've now edited the typo out. It could have been a Freudian slip though...
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 6:33:49 GMT
neiljThere was a poll at the end of last year in respect of what refuk voters actually wanted overwhelmingly it was their wish to have less foreigners in the country , but bizarrely around 20% of those of their supporters who expressed an opinion thought refuk's policy was actually a closer relationship with the European union and more immigration! It's primarily the latest platform for protest for the xenophobic and or uninformed. Brexit unfortunately showed that this is by no means a small number to target.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 6:51:51 GMT
wb61 While large hotel groups such as H10 do control a significant fraction of the accommodation, unlike many areas this tends not to be of the all inclusive model, as such this provides massive opportunities for employment unrelated to the big corporates in retail and hospitality. But they have a point, however the work is for canarians and the standard of living in the canaries is significantly better than in many parts of Spain without tourist activity. A good example would be la linea the town bordering Gibraltar, while its improved a bit recently in line with Spain's successful economy it's nothing like as prosperous as it's tourist orientated neighbours along the Andalusian coast. Tourist taxes can be difficult to administer other than via the accommodation. Given that the Canary islands autonomous zone status means prices for residents can be amongst the lowest in Spain because the local rate of igic( Spanish vat) is often zero with an ordinary rate of 7% while in mainland Spain the standard rate is 21%..But they are of course islands hundreds of miles away from peninsula Spain with no rivers and the need to import both food and water so some prices reflect this. I doubt there's a lot of protest about increased domestic taxation in line with other parts of Spain to generate more income.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2024 6:54:21 GMT
jayblanc "It certainly seems that the Executive Summary of the Cass Report was... written with politics in mind. " Cass was either incompetent or naive in not ensuring that the executive summary represented the reviews findings acvurately for has realised that her report is being exposed for what it is and is trying to limit the damage to her reputation. Of course, the Tories and,shamefully, Labour are adding to the hysteria. If you want to make party political points about this, it should be noted that a significant number of SNP members don't share your outlook on social issues - it seems around 50% are socially conservative based on the last leadership election.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 7:33:14 GMT
and yet the rationale why people who used to holiday in the uk chose instead to go abroad remains. Its actually cheaper. Doesn't help of course that government is trying to prevent accommodation being used for holidaymakers. So..shortage of uk housing also means we all have to go abroad to holiday.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 7:42:58 GMT
alec Tourism in the canary islands provides nearly half the jobs and over a third of the islands income , higher in some of the smaller islands. Around 90% of the two million residents live in Tenerife or Gran Canaria. Around 80% of the resident population are Spanish, 70% born in the Islands around 7% of the resident population are from the rest of Europe.The largest group of non Spanish born residents ( nearly half) come from Spanish speaking parts of South America. The tourists and there are course millions of them over the year are overwhelmingly concentrated in a relatively small number of coastal ,often purpose built resorts. A good example is Playa de las Americas /los cristianos in Tenerife with at any given time tens of thousands of tourists at any given time the impression is that the resident population must also be in the tens of thousands, it isn't it's around 9000.Accommodation there has always been overwhelmingly for visitors and part time residents, nothing has changed in this respect. These resorts are only there at all because of tourism most commenced construction in the 1970's. I think The primary gripe about tourists is they cause housing prices to rise /become unaffordable in these areas "forcing" Canarians to live in other towns and commute to work in the tourist areas,car traffic in Tenerife can be horrendous, there are as many cars as their are resident population, in the biggest urbanisation Santa Cruz with over 25% of the entire population of the canary islands and around 60% of the population of Tenerife,traffic jams can be horrendous, but Santa Cruz itself isn't the major tourist area , these are mostly clustered around 70 km- 100 km away in the South of the island. The primary gripe is that accommodation is unaffordable for Canarians there and the traffic " tourists " cause. The first isn't really consistent with where canarians have actually traditionally lived the second ignored the fact that traffic is at its worst where the tourists normally aren't. It's an understandable gripe driven by nationalist sentiments but it's generally unsupported by Canarians and takes no account of the reality The vast majority of canarians I've met are a welcoming and friendly people. again, this suggests we have a housing shortage and have exported it to the canaries. Where either they have built houses for us to use, or we have priced them out of their own. But it's interesting the uk is taking steps to close down its own tourist industry, which last I heard was pretty lucrative from yet richer people coming here.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 7:50:16 GMT
Reforms economic policies are completely unaffordable, but they seldom if ever get scrutiny
They want to raise when you start paying income tax to £20,000. 40% rate to £70,000. Scrap VAT on energy bills. Lower fuel duty by 20p per litre
Cut Residential Stamp Duty. Cut Stamp Duty to 0% below £750k; 2% from £750k - £1.5m; 4% over £1.5m.
Abolish the VAT Tourist Tax Abolish IHT, for all Estates under £2m. That means 98% of all estates won't pay it. The rate above £2m will be 20% tax But still more tax cuts, health service workers will pay zero basic income tax No corporation tax on companies earning less than £100m VAT cut to 18% There are more, including tax relief to those using private health care and schools
They've costed these changes at costings £70b, which seems way to optimistic to me, it's likely to be well north of £150b
At the same time they've pledged zero NHS waiting lists and zero net migration. Those two policies are likely to counteract each other.
This is at a time when we have a huge public debt and services in desperate need of investment
So how will they pay for it...efficiency savings and getting the unemployment rate down...while you may be able to save the odd billion here or there it is dwarfed by their proposed tax cuts. It would make the Truss budget look sensible and the money markets very frightened
But of course like many minority parties they won't be elected, so can put forward these silly unaffordable ideas. What the tories shouldn't do is follow them down the rabbit hole
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Post by johntel on Apr 21, 2024 8:13:44 GMT
- We need to avoid another repeat Mancunian local derby FA Cup Final so all the best to Carfrew's Sky Blues tomorrow. Oh yeah, we are playing today aren’t we! Obviously we are up against it batters, but we are known for springing last minute surprises - e.g. Wolves got caught out, led into thinking we were playing five at the back, only we didn’t play five at the back - so let’s see what they can come up with today. Maybe we can smuggle an extra man on the pitch… Forest take on Everton at Goodison today in a relegation 6-pointer. Though if we lose we'll appeal and hopefully it will be reduced to 4.
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 21, 2024 8:18:06 GMT
There are times when I despair of anyone fixing the Met as anti-semitism rears its ugly head again. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/met-police-antisemitism-apology-jewish-b2531719.htmlThe antisemitism campaigner involved in the incident was Gideon Falter, chief executive of the Campaign Against Antisemitism, who was wearing a kippah skullcap when he was stopped from crossing the road near the demonstration in the Aldwych area of London on the afternoon of Saturday 13 April. A video clip posted by the organisation showed one police officer saying to him: “You are quite openly Jewish, this is a pro-Palestinian march. I’m not accusing you of anything but I’m worried about the reaction to your presence.” Metropolitan Police assistant commissioner Matt Twist had said earlier on Friday: “The fact that those who do this often film themselves while doing so suggests they must know that their presence is provocative, that they’re inviting a response and that they’re increasing the likelihood of an altercation.”Do the Met Police really think that being "openly Jewish" is provocative. It all reminds me of the Battle of Cable Street in 1936 when the Met Police were there to support Moseley's fascists in their desire to march through the, then, heavily Jewish East End.
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Post by bardin1 on Apr 21, 2024 8:22:50 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 21, 2024 8:23:07 GMT
jayblanc "It certainly seems that the Executive Summary of the Cass Report was... written with politics in mind. " Cass was either incompetent or naive in not ensuring that the executive summary represented the reviews findings acvurately for has realised that her report is being exposed for what it is and is trying to limit the damage to her reputation. Of course, the Tories and,shamefully, Labour are adding to the hysteria. If you want to make party political points about this, it should be noted that a significant number of SNP members don't share your outlook on social issues - it seems around 50% are socially conservative based on the last leadership election. I should imagine a good proportion of SNP voters are quite socially conservative too, albeit I've never thought that social or cultural views are defining issues in terms of political persuasion. It seems to me that quite radical and progressive attitudes on inequality, the role of the state, taxation etc can, and often do, coexist with socially conservative beliefs. One of the problems of left wing politics in my view has been the obsession with thinking that radicalism is defined by liberal social attitudes. Plenty of quite right wing voters and politicians possess liberal social attitudes and many voters who opt for left wing parties have quite conservative views about some social and cultural issues. I see no inherent contradiction in that. There was a time when most Roman Catholics in the UK voted Labour and while I think the link between religious faiths and voting habits is much looser now, and the influence of organised religion far less, I've always thought that it's a mistake to think that the social and cultural attitudes belong on a political spectrum. The definition of positions on political spectrum are much more about attitudes towards the way a society is organised economically in my view. Ironically, getting back to the SNP, I would have thought that the attitude someone has towards Scottish independence has little to do with their views on civil partnerships, transgender rights, marriage etc. It's also worth remembering that most surveys have shown a steadily liberal drift on these issues amongst voters, members and politicians of all political parties.
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2024 9:15:42 GMT
alec Tourism in the canary islands provides nearly half the jobs and over a third of the islands income , higher in some of the smaller islands. Around 90% of the two million residents live in Tenerife or Gran Canaria. Around 80% of the resident population are Spanish, 70% born in the Islands around 7% of the resident population are from the rest of Europe.The largest group of non Spanish born residents ( nearly half) come from Spanish speaking parts of South America. The tourists and there are course millions of them over the year are overwhelmingly concentrated in a relatively small number of coastal ,often purpose built resorts. A good example is Playa de las Americas /los cristianos in Tenerife with at any given time tens of thousands of tourists at any given time the impression is that the resident population must also be in the tens of thousands, it isn't it's around 9000.Accommodation there has always been overwhelmingly for visitors and part time residents, nothing has changed in this respect. These resorts are only there at all because of tourism most commenced construction in the 1970's. I think The primary gripe about tourists is they cause housing prices to rise /become unaffordable in these areas "forcing" Canarians to live in other towns and commute to work in the tourist areas,car traffic in Tenerife can be horrendous, there are as many cars as their are resident population, in the biggest urbanisation Santa Cruz with over 25% of the entire population of the canary islands and around 60% of the population of Tenerife,traffic jams can be horrendous, but Santa Cruz itself isn't the major tourist area , these are mostly clustered around 70 km- 100 km away in the South of the island. The primary gripe is that accommodation is unaffordable for Canarians there and the traffic " tourists " cause. The first isn't really consistent with where canarians have actually traditionally lived the second ignored the fact that traffic is at its worst where the tourists normally aren't. It's an understandable gripe driven by nationalist sentiments but it's generally unsupported by Canarians and takes no account of the reality The vast majority of canarians I've met are a welcoming and friendly people. Las Americas (but had to be Las Americas) was one of my regular holidays when I was younger- cheap and cheerful sunny holiday and you could just walk into places like Ministry of Sound and Cream without any entrance fees or queues and walk out whenever you felt like it. Fawlty Towers & Only Fools and Horses shown in the English pubs 24 hours a day when there wasn't a game on Sky Sports! The thing was that Las Americas was man made so it wasn't like there was any serious displacement of locals and the bits that hadn't been developed looked like a building site because that was what the volcanic Island naturally looked like so I don't see much harm in that. Maybe the continuing development and tourism has spread too widely and is now affecting the locals but it felt like an ideal place to go that didn't interfere with any local population- bit like setting up in Las Vegas would have been I imagine. I think in general mass tourism is an issue but Tenerife is possibly a bad example. To be honest you could say the same thing about many cities over here. Manchester has changed from being a cheap and cheerful place for locals to an overcrowded expensive tourist magnet. They just opened the largest music/entertainment venue in the country yesterday- Co-Op live with a capacity of 23,000 and selling Co-Op own brand food- £8.25 for a pie which someone pointed out on twitter they could get for £2.50.... at the Co-Op.
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Post by James E on Apr 21, 2024 9:27:00 GMT
Opinium Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2) I wonder if the Reform voting intention figure in these opinion polls is a "plague on all your houses" sentiment as opposed to a thought through expression of support for a specific party and its policy platform? A repository for the disaffected and politically homeless The clues seems to be in what these "voters" give as their second preference vote, and it's by no means all for the Tories, and also in the performance of Reform in actual elections. Their "voters" aren't turning up. Of course, this is often a problem with voting intention polls when it's not always clear whether respondents are being prompted or not. All that said, it seems pretty obvious that Reform are benefitting from disillusionment with the established parties, but I suspect they will be drastically squeezed when people are required to cast actual votes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if many of those indicating support for Reform now won't vote at all. We should remember too that there has always been a Far Right vote in British politics and Reform will be the beneficiaries of this often unspoken voting group who may feel ignored and uncatered for during general elections, certainly since the the electoral demise of NF, EDL etc. One of the effects of Opinium's methodology is to increase the Reform UK VI, as well as that of the Conservatives (as Ref are getting nearly all their support from Con2019 voters). For those who share the view that the Reform VI is overstated by most polls, the answer is to look to Survation's figures as they do not prompt by party names at all. Their most recent poll this week put Reform on 8%, while their much larger MRP (of 15,000 respondents) showed them on 8.5%. To me, the most interesting part of that was not their seats prediction, which looked too high for Labour and failed to account for the usual overperformance by LDs and Greens in their strongest seats, but the follow-up question for those who stated their VI as Reform. Survation asked which party their voters (close to 1,000 of them) would support if Reform stood aside, and this produced the following: Con 29.3% (+3.1) Lab 46.5% (+1.5) LD 10.9% (+0.5) Green 4.6% (+0.4) SNP+PC 4.1% (+0.2) Others 4.5% (+2.6) (Comparisons to Survation's standard VI question) The benefit to the Conservatives is therefore only about 20% of the redistributed Reform UK vote (of which they get 37% to Labour's 18%). Note that the 'others' pick up over 30% of those who would have supported Reform, and that is in addition to those who had given UKIP, Reclaim, Heritage or whatever as their first choice. Because of this, the combined vote for the Tories + other small RoC parties is probably still around 33%. www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling(see link at bottom of page for results with Reform standing aside)
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Post by chrisc on Apr 21, 2024 9:30:45 GMT
Canary Islands are not all the same. Lanzarote has for example made an active decision to embrace low impact tourism. No high rise hotels. Access to national parks strictly controlled. Essentially three tourist areas in one region of the island. Of course this does not stop all housing and water issues, but limiting tourist density was a clear and popular local decision and I dont think anyone could win an election trying to reverse it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 9:45:02 GMT
Danny
"again, this suggests we have a housing shortage and have exported it to the canaries. Where either they have built houses for us to use,the."
Where do you get that idea from the number of British people who live in the canary islands is around 10% of the foreign born population about 2% of the total population, overwhelmingly British permanent residents like the Canarians themselves live in Santa Cruz in Tenerife and Las Palmas in Gran Canaria.
The overseas born population of the canaries is actually falling, Brexit impacted UK immigration and second home ownership.
This issue is largely unrelated to UK citizens.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 9:50:27 GMT
shevii Well I suppose all towns are man made but I get your point. All of the main tourist resorts in all of the Canary islands were purpose built for tourism. As late as the 1960's los cristianos playa's nicer neighbour consisted of about 50 houses and a cave! These towns are only there at all because of mass tourism starting in the 1970's. It seems a bit daft to complain about the number of tourists in a place built for tourism tbh. Incidentally canarian Spanish. Is one of the easiest accented for non native speakers like me to understand. They also have the endearing habit of duplicating the end syllable in a work. For example the Spanish for pretty is Bonita but in the canaries it's often said as bonitata, it give the language a charming sing song character.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 10:04:51 GMT
chrisc Lanzarote has as far as I am aware always had a low rise no more than four story policy.This is now common practice in much of spain. All drinking water in Lanzarote is imported
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Post by James E on Apr 21, 2024 10:32:38 GMT
While Opinium don't poll very frequently, their figures are useful as a check on the regional patterns I have described before as found by YouGov and others. In particular, their methodology provides a good test to Peter Kellner's contention (his 'Grumblers and Defectors' article from last year) that the high swings in safe Tory areas may be the product of the larger numbers of 'Don't Knows' there. Opinium's 6 poll averages since 23 Feb are: Headline GBCon 25.3% (-19.4) Lab 41% (+8) Swing Con to Lab 13.7% LondonLab 51% (+3) Con 23% (-9) Swing Con to Lab 6% South EnglandLab 36% (+13) Con 29% (-26) LD 13% (-4) Swing Con to Lab 19.5% MidlandsLab 40% (+7) Con 26% (-29) Swing Con to Lab 18% North EnglandLab 49% (+6) Con 23% (-16) Swing Con to Lab 11% WalesLab 40% (-1) Con 22% (-14) Swing Con to Lab 7% ScotlandLab 29% (+10) Con 19% (-6) SNP 33% (-12) Swing SNP to Lab 11% So even after excluding the Don't Knows and counting only those who give a voting intention, the Tories are losing most support in their safest regions. Their overall figures for vote-retention, that is their current VI as found by Opinium's last 6 polls compared to GE2019 are: Scotland 76% London 72% Wales 61% North England 59% GB Average 57%South England 53% Midlands 47% kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 10:43:30 GMT
James EThanks for posting, very informative, it does highlight how silly it is to use UNS to predict seat changes
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Apr 21, 2024 11:15:03 GMT
jayblanc "It certainly seems that the Executive Summary of the Cass Report was... written with politics in mind. " Cass was either incompetent or naive in not ensuring that the executive summary represented the reviews findings acvurately for has realised that her report is being exposed for what it is and is trying to limit the damage to her reputation. Of course, the Tories and,shamefully, Labour are adding to the hysteria. If you want to make party political points about this, it should be noted that a significant number of SNP members don't share your outlook on social issues - it seems around 50% are socially conservative based on the last leadership election. That's quite true. While I haven't seen the detail of membership profiles for other parties [1], researchers have noted that the SNP is not demographically dissimilar to other parties. The 2009 analysis of SNP members (perhaps rather dated now) showed that 40% of members were 50-64, with a further 31% being 65+, "SNP members seemed older than those in other parties. The SNP membership is also largely middle class. The profile of SNP members in terms of age, social class, education and religion is not markedly dissimilar to the Scottish population, and quite similar to most other parties based on previous membership studies".
academic.oup.com/edinburgh-scholarship-online/book/18988/chapter-abstract/177356568?redirectedFrom=fulltext
One should, therefore expect the SNP to have a significant proportion of socially and economically conservative members, and for hireton and I to be at the more "progressive" end of the spectrum.
hireton would have been more accurate, however, in saying "Labour leadership". Policy stances by parties come from the leadership, and not the membership. They may, or may not, match the views of their members. Indeed, one of the reasons for the SNP's current problems is that it became over-centralised and the leadership's choice to adopt much more progressive policies (in order to capture more of the "young vote") was too much out of kilter with a proportion of its membership.
The Labour Party may well find itself repeating that error, in it's leadership adopting policy stances designed to capture more of the right-leaning geriatric vote!
[1] While I came across several reports on the profile of Labour Party voters, I couldn't find a similar analysis of Labour Party members. Do you know of any?
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Post by graham on Apr 21, 2024 11:38:27 GMT
While Opinium don't poll very frequently, their figures are useful as a check on the regional patterns I have described before as found by YouGov and others. In particular, their methodology provides a good test to Peter Kellner's contention (his 'Grumblers and Defectors' article from last year) that the high swings in safe Tory areas may be the product of the larger numbers of 'Don't Knows' there. Opinium's 6 poll averages since 23 Feb are: Headline GBCon 25.3% (-19.4) Lab 41% (+8) Swing Con to Lab 13.7% LondonLab 51% (+3) Con 23% (-9) Swing Con to Lab 6% South EnglandLab 36% (+13) Con 29% (-26) LD 13% (-4) Swing Con to Lab 19.5% MidlandsLab 40% (+7) Con 26% (-29) Swing Con to Lab 18% North EnglandLab 49% (+6) Con 23% (-16) Swing Con to Lab 11% WalesLab 40% (-1) Con 22% (-14) Swing Con to Lab 7% ScotlandLab 29% (+10) Con 19% (-6) SNP 33% (-12) Swing SNP to Lab 11% So even after excluding the Don't Knows and counting only those who give a voting intention, the Tories are losing most support in their safest regions. Their overall figures for vote-retention, that is their current VI as found by Opinium's last 6 polls compared to GE2019 are: Scotland 76% London 72% Wales 61% North England 59% GB Average 57%South England 53% Midlands 47% kellnerpolitics.com/2023/05/24/how-grumblers-and-defectors-have-laid-a-trap-for-our-pollsters/Re- London. The capital swung strongly against the Tories post-Brexit and it is not surprising that when support is close to a core level that the scope for further anti-Tory swing there is likely to be limited. Elsewhere Labour has so much lost ground to recover.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2024 11:45:48 GMT
James E Thanks for posting, very informative, it does highlight how silly it is to use UNS to predict seat changes I tend on balance to agree, but in fairness to Peter Kellner (and Graham) the time to judge that will be after the election.
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Post by shevii on Apr 21, 2024 12:05:01 GMT
James E Thanks for posting, very informative, it does highlight how silly it is to use UNS to predict seat changes On current polling, whatever methodology you use, I think the Tory wipeout will be massive. There's not many places Tories are going to be able to hold if UNS says their vote share is 25% and even 25% is debatable at present. I think the only question is how much that changes if, for example, they are able to hit close to 30% vote share come the General Election, so in a sense the regional analysis or Individual seat MRPs won't be much help if and until they do get close to 30% UNS.
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Post by hireton on Apr 21, 2024 12:06:04 GMT
pjw1961"If you want to make party political points about this, it should be noted that a significant number of SNP members don't share your outlook on social issues - it seems around 50% are socially conservative based on the last leadership election. " Your loyalty to Labour is admirable. Two points on your response. Firstly, your party's spokespeople (Streeting and Cooper) immediately and officially supported the Cass review without reservation and the regional branch in Scotland followed demanding immediate implementation. It is not entirely clear now what they thought they were supporting given Cass' re-interpretation of the review findings. The Scottish Government response was that it would consider the findings of the review and that decisions on medication should be left to clinicians. Secondly, I know that many SNP members voted for Forbes despite her religious views not because of them. And Forbes attempted, albeit unconvincingly, to say that her personal views on matters such as equal marriage would not affect party policy. So at most it is fair to say that a substantial minority of SNP members were prepared to tolerate Forbes' social conservative views on some issues to vote for her as leader.
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Post by James E on Apr 21, 2024 12:32:49 GMT
pjw1961 The Conservatives' larger loss of support in their stronger areas is a consistent finding across all the pollsters I have looked at for the past year or two. So to add to the Opinium figures above and my regular YouGov analysis, the same is true with Deltapoll. Their last 4 GB polls show the Tories retaining 56% of their 2019 across GB as a whole, but this is just 50% in the South of England and 46% in the Midlands. Another example, but a slightly different approach, is to look at some of the localised polling Survation did earlier this year. Their Jan and Feb GB polls showed the Conservatives retaining 60% of their 2019 vote share, but this fell to 53% and 54% in their constituency polls of Clacton and Godalming & Ash, and to 57% in their larger poll of rural constituencies. And there is some good analysis on Electoral Calculus of the large scale polling they had from Find Out Now, which they have divided into 8 groups of 75 seats, ranging from the Conservatives strongest to weakest areas. They describe these findings as being a consistent minus 53% (or 47% vote share retention) across the board, but I would divide the sample in two, with the Tories losing 55% in their strong seats, and 51% in their weak seats. (See para 3.2, two-thirds of the way down this article). www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20240215.html[This pattern is also evident in by-election results. Leaving aside the exceptional case of Uxbridge, the Conservatives have had a higher overall vote retention of 56% in the 4 Labour-held constituencies where we have had by-elections since Dec 2022. But this becomes 53% retention on average in the 6 seats where they have been defending.]
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Post by wb61 on Apr 21, 2024 12:35:36 GMT
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,089
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 13:32:54 GMT
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Post by graham on Apr 21, 2024 13:47:05 GMT
Report in the Times that Menzies is about to stand down as an MP.
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neilj
Member
Posts: 5,909
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 14:27:04 GMT
Report in the Times that Menzies is about to stand down as an MP. Is that immediately or at the General Election?
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