domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 20, 2024 19:46:49 GMT
Polling on public support for US aid to Ukraine has been consistently pretty supportive. Last time I looked (a while ago) it was strengthening among Republican identifiers, and the party leadership is out of step on this issue. It has been a problem for them, like the actual interpretations of what overturning what Roe vs Wade should actually look like on the ground. Like the right wing nutters here, (some Conservatives, Refuk etc) they're like a dog chasing a car. It's all great unlike they catch the car. Then it gets really troublesome. The fact that this got passed indicates that even Trump may realise this. Taylor-Greene is an actual goggle eyed lunatic, berating her Republican colleagues for 'throwing away' the 'Republican majority' as if they should all vote for any old shit she supports and Democrats oppose as if beating them is literally all that matters and never mind the real world consequences. I recommend the film 'Don't look up' to anyone as it deals with this attitude beautifully. In the story the Republicans block initiatives to deal with the asteroid quickly just because the other side thinks it's a good idea and start coming up with nutty ideas about mining it, egged on by a Musk type character. 'Don't look up' becomes a Trumpian battle cry. This attitude will be the death knell of these lunatics and I'm beginning to suspect even Trump himself might be smelling the way this is going with his recent statements on abortion and Ukraine. Maybe I'm trying to reassure myself now that his re-election is a real possibility but it's often overlooked that Trump himself, a registered democrat within the last 20 years, is not really an ideologue, he just wants to re-elected to get revenge on Biden and soothe his ego. He's happy to be a right wing loon if that's the way to do that but if it starts to become apparent that it's not he can change direction on a sixpence I'm beginning to suspect.
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 20:09:08 GMT
Some polling nuggets here - www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/20/labour-target-tory-over-65s-poll-pension-cuts-jeremy-hunt-tax-blunderLabour claiming the promise of future tax cuts is alarming older voters, fearful for pensions and the NHS. Hard to know how accurate the reporting is on public sentiment, but it does illustrate the fact that once you lose credibility as a party, it's difficult to replay the old winning moves. Because it's far less about what you say you are going to do or not do; it's much, much more about whether people trust you and take you seriously. This is why accusing Starmer of flip flopping is irrelevant. He has, without doubt, but voters generally see him and Labour as credible. With Corbyn it was the opposite, He actgually had some pretty popular policies, but no one believed he could deliver. Sunak is the new Corbyn. I doubt he'll be able to do anything right between now the the GE. Nearly 13 million people thought he could in 2017.
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Post by jayblanc on Apr 20, 2024 20:27:38 GMT
Interesting news on the Cass Report. Dr. Cass has gone on public record disagreeing with the published Cass Report's executive summary of it's conclusions. 1) There was absolutely no intention by Dr Cass to restrict care of under 25s. This was deliberately misconstrued by focusing on the word "transition", when in that particular issue it was to do with "transition of medical records and treatment continuity between childhood care and adult care". Instead Dr. Cass said that the intent of her findings was to support childhood treatment so they had a continuity of care throughout the process. The executive summary seems to have misrepresented this. 2) Dr Cass states that Conversion Therapy has no place in her recomendations or care. The suggestion that GPs should be allowed to continue to push it, and that "politics" was preventing debate on it, seems to be an invention of who ever wrote the executive summary. 2) There was no finding at all of evidence that puberty blockers are harmful. Dr Cass said her report was that there should be greater access and a clear pathway to provision of puberty blockers. This seems to somehow have become entirely contradicted by the executive summary. 3) Dr. Cass wanted more studies to be conducted, not for the existing studies conducted to be dismissed. And that it would be entirely inappropriate to dismiss studies where it is impractical or inhumane to use "double blind" practices. And that her conclusions were that more studies were needed to establish best practice, not that there was no evidence that the treatment was positive, and there there is a large weight of evidence that the treatment is positive. This was, again, not accurately relayed in the executive summary. 4) Dr. Cass regrets involvement of US Activists in the report. And that on learning their associations and political motives, had removed them from the report, and struck their contributions. The Executive Report glosses over this. thekitetrust.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Cass-Review-Mythbusting-Q-and-A.pdfIt certainly seems that the Executive Summary of the Cass Report was... written with politics in mind.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 20, 2024 20:39:17 GMT
Congress has voted in favour of giving Ukraine the $60.8bn (£49bn) military aid package. The final result was 311-112. Hard to credit 112 voting against, but a good result The vote was 210 Democrats + 101 Republicans = 311 v 112 Republicans. So a small majority of Republicans actually voted against. However, they would have know it was going to pass anyway, so some the 112 may include the more cowardly types who voted against so as not to draw the wrath of the genuine nutters.
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 20:53:08 GMT
... Maybe I'm trying to reassure myself now that his re-election is a real possibility but it's often overlooked that Trump himself, a registered democrat within the last 20 years, is not really an ideologue, he just wants to re-elected to get revenge on Biden and soothe his ego. He's happy to be a right wing loon if that's the way to do that but if it starts to become apparent that it's not he can change direction on a sixpence I'm beginning to suspect. A bit like our Boris perhaps? Or Sir Keir Sonofatoolmaker. The trouble is people keep electing politicians.
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 21:11:17 GMT
There was some discussion of Taylor Swift earlier and her potential to influence the US elections. I had heard of her of course but never knowingly heard any of her songs (it may have been on muzak in a supermarket or something). So in the interests of staying up to date I thought I'd listen to something of hers. I found the shortest video on youtube that I could (I'm not very keen on music usually). It was a song called 'Lavender Haze'. It certainly seemed original and I was impressed when I found out that she writes her own stuff but it wasn't particularly appealing to me. I prefer stuff with a bit more 'oomph' to it such as Ride of the Valkyries or Bits and Pieces by the Dave Clark 5 😁. Anyway it's unfair to judge her on one song and I know that she's very popular. I wonder whether she will risk alienating some of her fanbase by supporting Biden, who I'm seeing more and more as the lesser of two evils. I suppose she can afford to now if she wants to.
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Post by hireton on Apr 20, 2024 21:20:57 GMT
jayblanc"It certainly seems that the Executive Summary of the Cass Report was... written with politics in mind. " Cass was either incompetent or naive in not ensuring that the executive summary represented the reviews findings acvurately for has realised that her report is being exposed for what it is and is trying to limit the damage to her reputation. Of course, the Tories and,shamefully, Labour are adding to the hysteria.
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 20, 2024 21:22:27 GMT
This is an interesting interview with Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's former very short lived Head of White House communications. He lasted 11 days. During this interview with former Tory Minister Ed (Lord) Vaizey on Times Radio, when Liz Truss was mentioned, he amusingly commented that her premiership lasted "Four Scaramuccis". Self deprecating wit at its best. Scaramucci is always good value as an interviewee and despite Vaizey's ham-fisted interviewing style, he remains so here. He also knows Trump well, so his insights into Trump's chances of winning in November are worth serious consideration. He could be accused of having an axe to grind, but I think some of the reasons he gives for why he thinks Trump will lose against Biden are convincing ones. I happen to share them too. youtu.be/fGE6D9EINFg?si=PBLVgmnfXjUjPCVZ
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Post by isa on Apr 20, 2024 21:30:26 GMT
Some random sporting thoughts and valedictions/best wishes/dedications: - Yeovil Town back in the big time of non-league football. Well done isa You're very kind, Batty. Not that I can take any credit beyond adding my occasionally vociferous two pennorth from the stands! I must admit, "back in the big time of non-league football" still seems a little lame considering barely a decade ago we were crossing swords weekly with the likes of Leicester, Forest, Sheffield United and Wednesday, though. Anyhoo, after ten years of death spiral, it's obviously nice when it stops, and it has been good to see some entertaining footie and people coming back to the club. In some numbers, too. Averaging a smidge under 4,000 for home attendances in the sixth tier of English football is not too dusty.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 20, 2024 21:34:22 GMT
Opinium
Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2)
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 21:55:50 GMT
This is an interesting interview with Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's former very short lived Head of White House communications. He lasted 11 days. During this interview with former Tory Minister Ed (Lord) Vaizey on Times Radio, when Liz Truss was mentioned, he amusingly commented that her premiership lasted "Four Scaramuccis". Self deprecating wit at its best. Scaramucci is always good value as an interviewee and despite Vaizey's ham-fisted interviewing style, he remains so here. He also knows Trump well, so his insights into Trump's chances of winning in November are worth serious consideration. He could be accused of having an axe to grind, but I think some of the reasons he gives for why he thinks Trump will lose against Biden are convincing ones. I happen to share them too. youtu.be/fGE6D9EINFg?si=PBLVgmnfXjUjPCVZVery interesting. Thanks for the link. Scaramucci seems to be a very level-headed and knowledgeable chap. Let's hope he's right. I thought Vaizey asking him when he was running for office, though jocular, had some point. He'd get my vote over either Biden or Trump if I had one.
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 21:58:17 GMT
Opinium Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2) At first sight that looks as though Reform is taking votes from SNP and Green. Seems a bit unlikely. Probably MoE.
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 20, 2024 22:09:28 GMT
Opinium Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2) I wonder if the Reform voting intention figure in these opinion polls is a "plague on all your houses" sentiment as opposed to a thought through expression of support for a specific party and its policy platform? A repository for the disaffected and politically homeless The clues seems to be in what these "voters" give as their second preference vote, and it's by no means all for the Tories, and also in the performance of Reform in actual elections. Their "voters" aren't turning up. Of course, this is often a problem with voting intention polls when it's not always clear whether respondents are being prompted or not. All that said, it seems pretty obvious that Reform are benefitting from disillusionment with the established parties, but I suspect they will be drastically squeezed when people are required to cast actual votes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if many of those indicating support for Reform now won't vote at all. We should remember too that there has always been a Far Right vote in British politics and Reform will be the beneficiaries of this often unspoken voting group who may feel ignored and uncatered for during general elections, certainly since the the electoral demise of NF, EDL etc.
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Post by mercian on Apr 20, 2024 22:41:08 GMT
... All that said, it seems pretty obvious that Reform are benefitting from disillusionment with the established parties, but I suspect they will be drastically squeezed when people are required to cast actual votes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if many of those indicating support for Reform now won't vote at all. We should remember too that there has always been a Far Right vote in British politics and Respect will be the beneficiaries of this often unspoken voting group who may feel ignored and uncatered for during general elections, certainly since the the electoral demise of NF, EDL etc. Did you mean Reform? I agree with everything else apart from the implication that Reform are Far Right. Compared to Communist perhaps, but not to NF or EDL.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 20, 2024 23:18:13 GMT
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Post by jayblanc on Apr 20, 2024 23:28:32 GMT
A reminder that in 2015, UKIP received 12.6% of the vote share. UKIP then collapsed to 1.8% the following election. Protest voters are fickle.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 20, 2024 23:42:09 GMT
A reminder that in 2015, UKIP received 12.6% of the vote share. UKIP then collapsed to 1.8% the following election. Protest voters are fickle. While I've never, knowingly, interacted with a UKIP voter (other than mercian on here) it seems unfair to dismiss them simply as "protest voters". What seems rather more likely is that they had a "destination" in mind which was different from that of the dominant GB parties. Not voting for one of them, unless they seemed the most likely vehicle to move towards that destination, would be rational behaviour.
For those parties to change tack to appeal to those voters, might be more accurately described as "fickle".
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 20, 2024 23:47:28 GMT
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Post by alec on Apr 21, 2024 4:52:32 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 5:42:12 GMT
Morning all - a little under nine hours to go…
Headline in the Times, where they have an interview with TB - “Tony Blair: ‘Politics is for the weird and the wealthy’”
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 5:49:56 GMT
- We need to avoid another repeat Mancunian local derby FA Cup Final so all the best to Carfrew's Sky Blues tomorrow. Oh yeah, we are playing today aren’t we! Obviously we are up against it batters, but we are known for springing last minute surprises - e.g. Wolves got caught out, led into thinking we were playing five at the back, only we didn’t play five at the back - so let’s see what they can come up with today. Maybe we can smuggle an extra man on the pitch…
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 5:50:33 GMT
Opinium Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2) At first sight that looks as though Reform is taking votes from SNP and Green. Seems a bit unlikely. Probably MoE. At second, maybe the anticipated recovery of con as an election looms is really happening, but they are still losing other voters to ref. That's not to say I'm dismissing moe, 2% random change perfectly possible depending on methodology. But there is a long term trend of con to ref.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 5:53:31 GMT
A reminder that in 2015, UKIP received 12.6% of the vote share. UKIP then collapsed to 1.8% the following election. Protest voters are fickle. Especially if they achieve their objective. (Or think they have…)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2024 5:58:52 GMT
The clues seems to be in what these "voters" give as their second preference vote, and it's by no means all for the Tories, and also in the performance of Reform in actual elections. Their "voters" aren't turning up. if I was a dissillusioned tory, would I put con as second choice or refuse to place them at all? Not sure what you can infer from second place if its someone who is protest voting against a party.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 6:05:18 GMT
Opinium Labour lead remains at 16 while Reform climb to 13% • Labour 41% (n/c) • Conservatives 25% (n/c) • Lib Dems 10% (n/c) • SNP 2% (-1) • Greens 7% (-1) • Reform 13% (+2) I wonder if the Reform voting intention figure in these opinion polls is a "plague on all your houses" sentiment as opposed to a thought through expression of support for a specific party and its policy platform? A repository for the disaffected and politically homeless Well over at the Telegraph comments section, it would seem some feel betrayed over immigration, and some feel betrayed over Brexit more generally, that there wasn’t a bonfire of regulations. Some are pissed off at what they perceive as the sabotage of Truss: the way the BoE started the Quantitative tightening the day before her budget*, and the leak of the OBR figures. Then you get the Remainers chipping in, who obviously aren’t so keen on Reform but still don’t care for the government… * headline in the Telegraph “ Jeremy Hunt urged to review Bank of England’s independence for BoE”
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 6:10:24 GMT
alec Tourism in the canary islands provides nearly half the jobs and over a third of the islands income , higher in some of the smaller islands. Around 90% of the two million residents live in Tenerife or Gran Canaria. Around 80% of the resident population are Spanish, 70% born in the Islands around 7% of the resident population are from the rest of Europe.The largest group of non Spanish born residents ( nearly half) come from Spanish speaking parts of South America. The tourists and there are course millions of them over the year are overwhelmingly concentrated in a relatively small number of coastal ,often purpose built resorts. A good example is Playa de las Americas /los cristianos in Tenerife with at any given time tens of thousands of tourists at any given time the impression is that the resident population must also be in the tens of thousands, it isn't it's around 9000.Accommodation there has always been overwhelmingly for visitors and part time residents, nothing has changed in this respect. These resorts are only there at all because of tourism most commenced construction in the 1970's. I think The primary gripe about tourists is they cause housing prices to rise /become unaffordable in these areas "forcing" Canarians to live in other towns and commute to work in the tourist areas,car traffic in Tenerife can be horrendous, there are as many cars as their are resident population, in the biggest urbanisation Santa Cruz with over 25% of the entire population of the canary islands and around 60% of the population of Tenerife,traffic jams can be horrendous, but Santa Cruz itself isn't the major tourist area , these are mostly clustered around 70 km- 100 km away in the South of the island. The primary gripe is that accommodation is unaffordable for Canarians there and the traffic " tourists " cause. The first isn't really consistent with where canarians have actually traditionally lived the second ignored the fact that traffic is at its worst where the tourists normally aren't. It's an understandable gripe driven by nationalist sentiments but it's generally unsupported by Canarians and takes no account of the reality The vast majority of canarians I've met are a welcoming and friendly people.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2024 6:15:11 GMT
... Maybe I'm trying to reassure myself now that his re-election is a real possibility but it's often overlooked that Trump himself, a registered democrat within the last 20 years, is not really an ideologue, he just wants to re-elected to get revenge on Biden and soothe his ego. He's happy to be a right wing loon if that's the way to do that but if it starts to become apparent that it's not he can change direction on a sixpence I'm beginning to suspect. The trouble is people keep electing politicians. Other approaches are available. Check my sig…
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 21, 2024 6:18:39 GMT
I wonder if the Reform voting intention figure in these opinion polls is a "plague on all your houses" sentiment as opposed to a thought through expression of support for a specific party and its policy platform? A repository for the disaffected and politically homeless Well over at the Telegraph comments section, it would seem some feel betrayed over immigration, and some feel betrayed over Brexit more generally, that there wasn’t a bonfire of regulations. Some are pissed off at what they perceive as the sabotage of Truss: the way the BoE started the Quantitative tightening the day before her budget*, and the leak of the OBR figures. Then you get the Remainers chipping in, who obviously aren’t so keen on Reform but still don’t care for the government… * headline in the Telegraph “ Jeremy Hunt urged to review Bank of England’s independence for BoE” The Telegraph maybe a self selecting audience, especially in view of some of their batshit crazy recent headlines/stories www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/19/fourteen-years-of-tory-rule-have-left-britain-a-lazy-mess/'Fourteen years of Tory rule have left Britain a lazy, dangerous, Left-wing mess' What we do know from polling is that the tories have lost as many votes to the left of them as to the right. They are in a cleft stick, whichever direction they go in they're likely to lose support. What I'm pretty sure of though is that they'll never out Reform, Reform. The siren voices telling them to go even further right will lead them into a dead end politically
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 6:26:22 GMT
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Post by wb61 on Apr 21, 2024 6:28:39 GMT
alec Tourism in the canary islands provides nearly half the jobs and over a third of the islands income , higher in some of the smaller islands. Around 90% of the two million residents live in Tenerife or Gran Canaria. Around 80% of the resident population are Spanish, 70% born in the Islands around 7% of the resident population are from the rest of Europe.The largest group of non Spanish born residents ( nearly half) come from Spanish speaking parts of South America. The tourists and there are course millions of them over the year are overwhelmingly concentrated in a relatively small number of coastal ,often purpose built resorts. A good example is Playa de las Americas /los cristianos in Tenerife with at any given time tens of thousands of tourists at any given time the impression is that the resident population must also be in the tens of thousands, it isn't it's around 9000.Accommodation there has always been overwhelmingly for visitors and part time residents, nothing has changed in this respect. These resorts are only there at all because of tourism most commenced construction in the 1970's. I think The primary gripe about tourists is they cause housing prices to rise /become unaffordable in these areas "forcing" Canarians to live in other towns and commute to work in the tourist areas,car traffic in Tenerife can be horrendous, there are as many cars as their are resident population, in the biggest urbanisation Santa Cruz with over 25% of the entire population of the canary islands and around 60% of the population of Tenerife,traffic jams can be horrendous, but Santa Cruz itself isn't the major tourist area , these are mostly clustered around 70 km- 100 km away in the South of the island. The primary gripe is that accommodation is unaffordable for Canarians there and the traffic " tourists " cause. The first isn't really consistent with where canarians have actually traditionally lived the second ignored the fact that traffic is at its worst where the tourists normally aren't. It's an understandable gripe driven by nationalist sentiments but it's generally unsupported by Canarians and takes no account of the reality The vast majority of canarians I've met are a welcoming and friendly people. From my little reading on this subject at the heart of the complaints is the domination of a few hotel groups, their control on wages, their ability to get planning permission to build anywhere even nature reserves. What is being called for is a tourist tax so the local population can benefit not just corporate entities in Barcelona. These complaints are never as one dimensional as often presented in the media.
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