|
Post by leftieliberal on Apr 19, 2024 8:50:39 GMT
"On Thursday the prime minister’s spokesperson said the Lords were responsible for any delay after attaching unwanted amendments to the deportation bill." The unwanted amendments they refer to are the peers want to ensure that the bill allows an independent committee to decide whether Rwanda is a safe country, and exempts Afghans who helped British troops from deportation to Rwanda. Unless you are blindingly dogmatic far right Tory obsessive and/or racist, it's difficult to see how anyone with a functional brain could object to the Lord's proposals. The Tories could ensure that the Bill passes without further delay by simply accepting the latest Lords amendments.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,542
|
Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 8:51:04 GMT
Rachel Reeves portraits and Rayner camper vans just amusing knockabout in the great destination march. Wasnt this about an SNP campervan parked on their drive for a year? Aside from that past news reporting says it concerns £600,000 raised to campaign for independence, which was spent on general party campaigning. That could amount to a straightforward illegal transfer of funds, or could be a judgement call. Could be a serious crime or a technicality. We are unlikely to find out in any court case before the election so the nebulous charges will be available to use to attack the SNP during the campaign. Otherwise, their obvious mistake was not to have a leader named after a fish. Been a big winner in the past, and I'm not sure I'm joking, it must have recognition value.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,542
|
Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 9:08:02 GMT
As Anne McElvoy says in the i newspaper: What is it, we might wonder, about the political class which makes it inclined to risk or outright recklessness in personal conduct? It’s something I have pondered over a few decades at Westminster, often discovering that the minister I had been talking to about some knotty policy area was better known for late-night escapades in unwise company or deploying the office finances in inventive ways. The impact is of course awful – voters feel betrayed and donors turn off the taps. The psychological profile of the political profession might be a clue to the tendency to end up in hot water. Back in 2006, it was a Lib Dem MP and then wannabe leader, Mark Oaten, in the firing line over his use of male escorts and a tabloid revelation of some dramatic detail. The veteran commentator Matthew Parris reflected that there was “a streak of derring-do in the make-up of a typical would-be politician” which, in the wrong circumstances and a mixture of stress, boredom and opportunity, frequently ended in a bonfire of their reputation – and damage to their colleagues.McElvoy's mention of the Oaten affair from just under two decades ago, should remind us all that no party is exempt from this sort of failing amongst its elected representatives. It just happens that it's the Tories (and SNP) at the moment. Presumably McElvoy mentioned matthew Parris because he resigned as an MP after some sexual scandal, and later admitted being beaten up on clapham common searching for sex. Not sure if that was the incident leading to his resignation, details seem to be before the internet age and so not archived. However I see he wrote an article for the spectator about life as a gay tory MP, where he argued Chris Pincher was a throwback to the bad old days where gay MPs were forced to hide their sexuality. Whereas modern MPs could avail themselves of modern means to meet men, ie presumably grindr. www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-truth-about-life-as-a-gay-tory-mp/So it IS perfectly fine for MPs to admit to using grindr rather than Clapham Common?
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,275
|
Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 9:11:49 GMT
Farnham Residents win Farnham Castle Residents - 32.5% Lib Dem - 29.6% Labour - 23.0% Conservative - 14.9% A new Peasant's Revolt? Hope they survive any subsequent seige They have been revolting in Farnham for a while. The Residents are currently running the council in an alliance with other parties (that's why they have fallen out with the Lib Dems who actually have more councillors).
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,071
|
Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 9:17:23 GMT
A new Peasant's Revolt? Hope they survive any subsequent seige They have been revolting in Farnham for a while. The Residents are currently running the council in an alliance with other parties (that's why they have fallen out with the Lib Dems who actually have more councillors). If you've ever been to Farnham you'll know that there aren't many 'peasants' to be found.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,275
|
Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 9:27:55 GMT
They have been revolting in Farnham for a while. The Residents are currently running the council in an alliance with other parties (that's why they have fallen out with the Lib Dems who actually have more councillors). If you've ever been to Farnham you'll know that there aren't many 'peasants' to be found. Revolting stockbrokers?
|
|
|
Post by alec on Apr 19, 2024 9:36:39 GMT
"Of course, the world recession, disruption of supply chains and world shortage of materials of all sorts which still continues, was caused by world lockdown, our response to covid."
I really do wonder how long the foolish can keep this up. The world economy has been fully open for years, but still they insist a few months of disruption four years ago is the root cause of everything.
It's as daft as blaming Jeremy Corbyn for World War II.
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Apr 19, 2024 9:55:06 GMT
Had to check this out before posting as you know what twitter is like but seems to be genuine:
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,275
|
Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 10:07:42 GMT
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 5,887
|
Post by neilj on Apr 19, 2024 10:11:05 GMT
Techne
NEW POLL: LABOUR & REFORM UP, CONSERVATIVES DOWN
Lab 45% (+1) Cons 22% (-1) Lib Dems 9% (-1) Reform 13% (+1) Greens 5% (=) SNP 3% (=) Others 3% (=)
👥 1640 Surveyed 🔎 Field Work: 17 & 18 April 2024 🗓️ +/- 12th April 2024
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,071
|
Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 10:33:55 GMT
If you've ever been to Farnham you'll know that there aren't many 'peasants' to be found. Revolting stockbrokers? pretty much!
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,071
|
Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 10:36:30 GMT
Had to check this out before posting as you know what twitter is like but seems to be genuine: I've been to two well-to-do southern towns recently, Woking and Winchester and both are becoming festooned with LD signs and banners, some of them huge. No sign of any other party's banners in either place.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,909
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 19, 2024 10:48:42 GMT
"Of course, the world recession, disruption of supply chains and world shortage of materials of all sorts which still continues, was caused by world lockdown, our response to covid." I really do wonder how long the foolish can keep this up. The world economy has been fully open for years, but still they insist a few months of disruption four years ago is the root cause of everything. It's as daft as blaming Jeremy Corbyn for World War II. It’s one thing to keep mentioning Covid Alec, but do try not to mention Corbyn any more than is absolutely necessary (and sortition, come to that. 👍 Even mentioning WW2 isn’t loved by everybody, and proceduralism and… oh, there are lots of rules…). Regarding supply shortages, did read that shortages that may have begun under Covid may have continued for other reasons besides Covid, e.g. computer chips still in short supply because of AI, 5G and rising EV demand.
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Apr 19, 2024 10:49:53 GMT
Re the Murrell thing as a supporter of Scottish independence it, and by proxy Sturgeon's association with it, will cost the SNP dear, but in any case their vote will have declined. Like the Tories they have been in power too long and hubris has set in. With the benefit of hindsight the first months of covid crises were a high point. "There is a tide in the affairs of men....."
I attend a meeting every wednesday from 4 to 7, in our local pub, of men of 65+ which we call 'The Grumpies" (our partners, in a nice example of gender stereotyping which is dying out, have a knitting club with an even better name called "Stitch and Bitch" where I understand gin rather than beer is consumed). Our Grumpies - there are about 18 but usually 6-10 on any given wednesday, are almost to a man anti SNP, despite having an SNP MP. I have noticed the rhetoric has turned up a notch in the last year from "they're incompetent/rubbish" to "they're evil" so I expect that Graham's predictions, which I have disagreed with over the last few years on here, are likely now to be fairly accurate and the SNP are in for a pasting. I think it will be a mix of abstention/ labour/ green switching. Woudl be interested to see more detailed polling on voting intentions of those who voted SNP last time
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Apr 19, 2024 10:51:29 GMT
I would think that is highly likely - an important man in the Liberal revival back inthe day. I expect they wil get slaughtered anyway
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,909
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 19, 2024 10:55:45 GMT
News noted the investigation into SNP finances started 3 years ago. I'm sure they would agree that 'justice delayed is justice denied'. Funny how there is now some activity just as an election looms. Plans for expanding childcare are apparently short of 85,000 places for the extra kids. Head of a nursery chain said the government isnt paying enough money and at that rate they cannot find enough people willing to do the job, requiring apparently 1 staff for every 2 kids. I just tried to look that up, and official numbers seems to be 1 staff for every three kids under age 2, 1 for every 5 kids aged 2 and 1 staff for 13 kids aged 3. More troublesome perhaps is that staff need to have certain qualifications including english but also specialist teaching or child care qualifications. Staff seem likely to get only national minimum wage. And presumably there is police vetting, where they might be unwilling to employ anyone with a criminal record of any sort but presumably this is much more likely at minimum wage and so disqualifies a lot of possible applicants. The scheme isnt supposed to be fully implemented until september 2025, so finding more money to make it actually work will become yet another problem of the next government despite conservatives campaigning on having delivered it. It’s the problem with a right wing approach to economics, where the idea is to keep wages lower by giving capital more power and subjecting the less well paid to more competition for jobs. Even with a minimum wage it’s nowhere near enough as rent and costs of essentials go through the roof and wages don’t rise sufficiently to meet it. We are seeing that a government has to do more to limit prices, but politics has been captured by people who want to keep limiting state action more and more (Partly because that is also a media concern and they marginalise pro-state arguments and give those who want to do more with the state, more of a kicking so they struggle to get elected)
|
|
|
Post by graham on Apr 19, 2024 10:59:00 GMT
Norman Lamb was MP for North Norfolk. What is his connection with Lewes?
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,275
|
Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 11:01:21 GMT
Re the Murrell thing as a supporter of Scottish independence it, and by proxy Sturgeon's association with it, will cost the SNP dear, but in any case their vote will have declined. Like the Tories they have been in power too long and hubris has set in. With the benefit of hindsight the first months of covid crises were a high point. "There is a tide in the affairs of men....." I attend a meeting every wednesday from 4 to 7, in our local pub, of men of 65+ which we call 'The Grumpies" (our partners, in a nice example of gender stereotyping which is dying out, have a knitting club with an even better name called "Stitch and Bitch" where I understand gin rather than beer is consumed). Our Grumpies - there are about 18 but usually 6-10 on any given wednesday, are almost to a man anti SNP, despite having an SNP MP. I have noticed the rhetoric has turned up a notch in the last year from "they're incompetent/rubbish" to "they're evil" so I expect that Graham's predictions, which I have disagreed with over the last few years on here, are likely now to be fairly accurate and the SNP are in for a pasting. I think it will be a mix of abstention/ labour/ green switching. Woudl be interested to see more detailed polling on voting intentions of those who voted SNP last time Gin and knitting sounds a risky combination
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,275
|
Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 11:04:03 GMT
Norman Lamb was MP for North Norfolk. What is his connection with Lewes? You are absolutely right - my bad - I got him mixed up in my head with Norman Baker. There's been too many Normans ever since 1066.
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on Apr 19, 2024 11:11:21 GMT
That, of course, is a "backward-looking" sample and is also internally unweighted. The last 7 YouGov Scottish sub-samples takes us back to 6th March if their MRP poll is excluded. Due to the increased size of the YG sample, I now use 6 polls to get N>1,000. That covers the period since 13 March to now.
The individual poll VI numbers, in that period, range from SNP 38%/Lab 28% to SNP 30%/Lab 36% - which is why it is foolish to extrapolate from one crossbreak in a single poll.
Of course, you are right that if VI changes in the future, then the seat predictions are likely to change as well. That's why I publish the whole series of aggregate VI in the polling archive thread.![](//storage.proboards.com/7248232/thumbnailer/vKwRVEGNRYTwTT0sbMrj.png) These are the individual polls making up your last average, with a suggestion of a slight decline in the SNP VI over the last five weeks, while Labour VI is flat. The 27th March poll (day 1567) might be a rogue which would decrease the decline, but also put the SNP further behind Labour. It's just a straw in the wind at the moment, but consistent with the longer term decline in SNP VI in your series.
|
|
|
Post by alec on Apr 19, 2024 11:12:12 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - point taken. I won't mention The Messiah/Very Naughty Boy again. Regarding shortages, over the last two weeks I've seen reports of teacher shortages in three Australian states, two Canadian provinces and a number of US states being reported, all of which have been blamed on short and long term sickness absence. Texas, that bastion of anti lockdown/school closures/masking, has been closing schools in recent weeks because of excessive staff and student sickness. I've read of a high profile UCL professor complaining that his lecture courses are being decimated this year because of student absence. The South Australia Fire Service announced they were struggling to provide safe cover levels because of staff sickness absence last month. My guess is that a similar squeeze on staff availability is happening in pretty much every other business, because that's what the absence data is showing us pretty much everywhere. The additional long term sick numbers in the UK since 2020 are equivalent to around 3% of the entire available workforce, so it's a pretty big drag.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,542
|
Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 11:25:01 GMT
. Regarding supply shortages, did read that shortages that may have begun under Covid may have continued for other reasons besides Covid, e.g. computer chips still in short supply because of AI, 5G and rising EV demand. After lockdown as world trade began to recover - and before the Ukraine war - oil prices started rising dramatically. The reasons for this were complex, but obviously 18 months of poor demand led oil companies to close down facilities, not bring on stream new supplies. And so when demand suddenly soared back to baseline, there wasnt actually enough to go round and prices soared too. Not relevant to oil, but world distribution of containers used for trade was utterly disrupted by covid, with them piling up in all the wrong places. So a massive disruption of trade simply because there werent any shipping containers. Although its likely oil tankers were also laid up because of lack of demand during covid. Most things were laid up or cut back, not least computer chip manufacture when they could not be sold. Obviously users would have used up any local stocks supplies were interrupted and what with no new ones arriving.
Yes, there may be extra demand now for chips, but we had 18 months during which supply went backwards, not expanding to meet that growing demand. And surely it would have been foolish for a chip manufacturer in 2021/22 to expand production when it was uncertain if lockowns might all suddenly come back again. You would not do that, you would wait and see selling only what you had capacity for already. So accumulated backlog of demand, meant sensible company decisions not to expand raw capacity. Predictable shortage arises.
Lockdowns caused years of trade disruption.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,071
|
Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 11:38:05 GMT
Norman Lamb was MP for North Norfolk. What is his connection with Lewes? You are absolutely right - my bad - I got him mixed up in my head with Norman Baker. There's been too many Normans ever since 1066. "There's been too many Normans ever since 1066" - Darn right. They remain, in large part, the English aristocracy.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 9,542
|
Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 11:48:12 GMT
The additional long term sick numbers in the UK since 2020 are equivalent to around 3% of the entire available workforce, so it's a pretty big drag. You do remember that due to the time required to be classed as 'long term', the surge in rising long term sick began before covid? It actually correlates much better with falling funding (compared to rising demand) for the NHS. And I wouldn't doubt that covid caused a bigger crisis for the NHS in both meeting demand because of covid and keeping up even the falling standards of care it was already providing. The big picture in the UK based on the various statistics is labour boosted NHS spending with the result waiting lists fell and deaths fell. Con reduced spending again with the result waiting lists rose and so did deaths. Sure covid complicates this and will have interrupted treatment for all sorts of things, but the underlying trend is very clear. When con came to power they chose to reduce NHS funding and therefore increase the number of people dying earlier than they otherwise would, and have a generally sicker population. (after all, the really rich can always afford private medicine. They may even have shares in drug companies or the like making them the money)
|
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Apr 19, 2024 12:07:57 GMT
Techne NEW POLL: LABOUR & REFORM UP, CONSERVATIVES DOWN Lab 45% (+1) Cons 22% (-1) Lib Dems 9% (-1) Reform 13% (+1) Greens 5% (=) SNP 3% (=) Others 3% (=) 👥 1640 Surveyed 🔎 Field Work: 17 & 18 April 2024 🗓️ +/- 12th April 2024 I could have done with this pick-me-up fourteen hours earlier but it'll have to do
|
|
|
Post by isa on Apr 19, 2024 12:24:55 GMT
A bit of egg-on-face for the BBC in the 1 o'clock news, methinks. Reporting on LAB asking questions about Mark Menzies, they helpfully put up a couple of photos to remind viewers.
Unfortunately, the pics were of William Wragg rather than Menzies. A little embarrassing, at the very least.
Update: They've just fessed up to it.
|
|
|
Post by jayblanc on Apr 19, 2024 12:25:49 GMT
Since arrests have been made I certainly don't want to be sub-judicial, but I can point out that Wikipedia have a compact collection of all the public information known about the "Operation Branchform" investigation into SNP finances - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Branchform
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Apr 19, 2024 12:27:40 GMT
If you've ever been to Farnham you'll know that there aren't many 'peasants' to be found. Revolting stockbrokers? It's always been an bit of an indy, arty place - there's a University for the Creative Arts, potteries, galleries etc. A thriving Extinction Rebellion group.
|
|
|
Post by jayblanc on Apr 19, 2024 13:52:00 GMT
Rishi using an appearance at the Center for Social Justice to float a trial balloon of "cracking down on disability claimants" at the same time as denying that Long-Covid is a real medical condition. Not sure if this is meant for internal party politics, or if he thinks its an actual positive campaign line. Either way, what a terrible choice of venue to make this declaration, he can't have made many fans there.
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Apr 19, 2024 14:33:21 GMT
Gin and knitting sounds a risky combination Where do I sign up?
|
|