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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Apr 19, 2024 14:39:03 GMT
Rishi using an appearance at the Center for Social Justice to float a trial balloon of "cracking down on disability claimants" at the same time as denying that Long-Covid is a real medical condition. Not sure if this is meant for internal party politics, or if he thinks its an actual positive campaign line. Either way, what a terrible choice of venue to make this declaration, he can't have made many fans there. Hi jayblanc, CSJ is a right-wing think tank. IDS was a founding member, so I would think they would be very receptive to Sunak's speech.
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neilj
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Posts: 5,861
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Post by neilj on Apr 19, 2024 14:40:58 GMT
Yougov London Mayoral
Sadiq Khan holds a 19pt lead with 2 weeks until the London mayoral election
Sadiq Khan – Lab: 46% (-3 from Feb) Susan Hall – Con: 27% (+3) Zoe Garbett – Green: 9% (=) Rob Blackie – Lib Dem: 8% (=) Howard Cox – Reform UK: 6% (-1) Other: 4% (=)
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 19, 2024 14:41:59 GMT
The refuker seems a bit high.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Apr 19, 2024 14:51:50 GMT
Yougov London Mayoral Sadiq Khan holds a 19pt lead with 2 weeks until the London mayoral election Sadiq Khan – Lab: 46% (-3 from Feb) Susan Hall – Con: 27% (+3) Zoe Garbett – Green: 9% (=) Rob Blackie – Lib Dem: 8% (=) Howard Cox – Reform UK: 6% (-1) Other: 4% (=) Hiya neilj. So while Sadiq Kahn may be a bit of a hate figure for many on the right, most Londoners I know would much rather him than Hall. It must be certain that he will win. The combination of a charismatically challenged candidate and right-wing anti-woke inspired agenda hasn't paid off. Its looking like a for-runner of the General Election.
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Post by mercian on Apr 19, 2024 15:24:47 GMT
"On Thursday the prime minister’s spokesperson said the Lords were responsible for any delay after attaching unwanted amendments to the deportation bill." The unwanted amendments they refer to are the peers want to ensure that the bill allows an independent committee to decide whether Rwanda is a safe country, and exempts Afghans who helped British troops from deportation to Rwanda. Unless you are blindingly dogmatic far right Tory obsessive and/or racist, it's difficult to see how anyone with a functional brain could object to the Lord's proposals. The Tories could ensure that the Bill passes without further delay by simply accepting the latest Lords amendments. If it's so urgent why aren't they debating it today? Oh I forgot they all b*gger off early for the weekend. If Putin ever decides to attack us he's just got to do it on a Friday and he'll have 3 days free run.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,173
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 15:40:45 GMT
I don't want to depress everyone, but there has been quite a bit of recent state level polling in the US and its all grim for Biden. Trump has edged ahead again in Pennsylvania, drawn level in Wisconsin and continues to lead in all purple states. No sign his trial is doing him any harm at all.
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Post by jayblanc on Apr 19, 2024 15:54:03 GMT
Rishi using an appearance at the Center for Social Justice to float a trial balloon of "cracking down on disability claimants" at the same time as denying that Long-Covid is a real medical condition. Not sure if this is meant for internal party politics, or if he thinks its an actual positive campaign line. Either way, what a terrible choice of venue to make this declaration, he can't have made many fans there. Hi jayblanc , CSJ is a right-wing think tank. IDS was a founding member, so I would think they would be very receptive to Sunak's speech.I was aware, they represent the "wets" of the Conservative Party who don't want to be seen as the "nasty party" and want to present themselves as caring about disabled people and the poor, so it's an odd choice of venue to make a cracking down on the disabled speech. It seems to either be misjudgement about the best audience for a campaign trial balloon, or a deliberate play to the right of his party to disclaim being a "wet". I'd guess it's the latter, kicking off a race to the bottom to retain leadership of the Conservative party. It's also quite possible that he simply "juiced up" a speech that was going to be anodyne "oh we do care" stuff, to include some more headline grabbing declarations.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 16:21:25 GMT
I don't want to depress everyone, but there has been quite a bit of recent state level polling in the US and its all grim for Biden. Trump has edged ahead again in Pennsylvania, drawn level in Wisconsin and continues to lead in all purple states. No sign his trial is doing him any harm at all. I'm only following this from reports on here, but they seem to swing wildly from positive for trump to positive for Biden. Is this because reports are arriving from different states, maybe from different polling companies, maybe different ways of doing the polling nationally or by state? Or actually these claimed leads are all a bit margin of error and so frankly no one knows who is really ahead, its a bit of a guess? Trump seems to have the advantage that he is the political outsider, the one to break the mould of national politics. The guy who came in and shook up the system. He also has acted pro states rights as against federal rights, by appointing centralisation sceptic supreme court judges. I can see how that might appeal to a lot of americans who have always been sceptical of the feds imposing rules on them. He has the obvious apple pie causes of keeping out foreigners and repatriating jobs from China. He sounds tough on spending huge amounts of US money defending some nothing country in Europe from Russia. I can see a manifesto in that which carried Brexit in the UK despite it being totally ridiculous the UK can become fortress UK. Whereas it IS credible the worlds most powerful nation could use its power to bring about a fortress US. He of course has the brilliant advantage that the US system is better designed to prevent one party rule and so he can claim to have been thwarted last time by those pesky democrats (and maybe even republicans). Publicly he probably comes across as a grumpy grandpa who is a bit eccentric, or even a bit nuts, always on the edge of doing the unacceptable, but somehow inside that has a kernel of homespun truth. A certain block of voters must just love his anarchic approach attacking the federal system, and if he is having sex romps (which ended in the payoffs trial), well good for him at his age. And against him is Biden who was a promising candidate to be president...50 years ago. Which not only means he is too old (ok they both have a problem there), but his mindset is more kennedy than Putin. Comes across at least to me as if the last century was where he belonged. He somehow feels like an extra from 'mad men' or similar series set in the last century. Biden is probably the safer pair of hands for the world, and you can imagine if he went totally doolally his advisors would keep the show on the road as per Reagan. Wheras Trump would just have a crazy party. But thats the problem, some americans hate the federal government altogether.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,173
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 16:33:44 GMT
Danny - "I'm only following this from reports on here, but they seem to swing wildly from positive for trump to positive for Biden. Is this because reports are arriving from different states, maybe from different polling companies, maybe different ways of doing the polling nationally or by state? Or actually these claimed leads are all a bit margin of error and so frankly no one knows who is really ahead, its a bit of a guess?" They are not swinging wildly. You might get that impression on here because there are one or two "Biden optimists" who tend to write up any good news for the Democrats. The best person to read on US polling if eor , who follows it closely. The polling hasn't really changed that much. Trump and Biden are more or less tied on the national polling, albeit with Trump ahead in more polls than Biden, but it is very close. However, the presidency is not decided by the national vote but by the state based electoral college and Trump has been winning that for months with not much sign of change. Having said that, there are issues with US polling in that the Americans, in their usual spirit of capitalist free enterprise, allow partisan polling. Hence why the main polling aggregators give polling companies in the US a rating on past accuracy. So not all polls are equally valuable. I don't think MoE is a factor as there would have to be a consistent bias in favour of Trump across all pollsters to actually put Biden ahead in the EC, which seems unlikely.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 19, 2024 17:12:24 GMT
We Think
🔴 Lab 43% (-1) 🔵 Con 26% (+2) ⚪ Ref 11% (NC) 🟠 LD 9% (NC) 🟢 Green 7% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (NC)
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 19, 2024 17:13:36 GMT
Survation
LAB 44 (-1) CON 26 (-) LD 11 (-) GRN 4 (+1) RFM 8 (-) SNP 3 (+1) OTH 4 (-)
F/w 17th -18th April. Changes vs. 15th March 2024
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Post by bardin1 on Apr 19, 2024 17:43:29 GMT
Gin and knitting sounds a risky combination Where do I sign up?Dunkeld (voted best town in Scotland in the Times recently) You have to be able to bitch as well as stitch though....
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Post by hireton on Apr 19, 2024 17:59:03 GMT
pjw1961"Like the last Labour government ignored Sottish MPs - just the one Prime Minister, two Chancellors of the Exchequer, one Foreign Secretary, one Home Secretary, any number of cabinet ministers ..." A true statement but devoid of any immediate significance. What difference did it make to Scotland that there were UK Labour MPs from Scotland?
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 19, 2024 18:11:32 GMT
The refuker seems a bit high. This cryptic post sounds a bit like one you'd expect from the redoubtable ChrisLane1945, a former long time poster on this forum, albeit after he had just finished taking a course of steroids. 🤔😂
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,173
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 19, 2024 18:26:13 GMT
pjw1961 "Like the last Labour government ignored Sottish MPs - just the one Prime Minister, two Chancellors of the Exchequer, one Foreign Secretary, one Home Secretary, any number of cabinet ministers ..." A true statement but devoid of any immediate significance. What difference did it make to Scotland that there were UK Labour MPs from Scotland? Given the entire UK ran much better under Labour than the preceding and following Tory governments, I should say it made a great deal of difference to Scotland. For one thing, there would have been no Scottish Parliament for the SNP to run without a Labour government in Westminster setting it up in the first place. Thank you very much Scots Labour voters for your significant contribution to that successful period of government.
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Post by hireton on Apr 19, 2024 18:56:40 GMT
pjw1961 "Like the last Labour government ignored Sottish MPs - just the one Prime Minister, two Chancellors of the Exchequer, one Foreign Secretary, one Home Secretary, any number of cabinet ministers ..." A true statement but devoid of any immediate significance. What difference did it make to Scotland that there were UK Labour MPs from Scotland? Given the entire UK ran much better under Labour than the preceding and following Tory governments, I should say it made a great deal of difference to Scotland. For one thing, there would have been no Scottish Parliament for the SNP to run without a Labour government in Westminster setting it up in the first place. Thank you very much Scots Labour voters for your significant contribution to that successful period of government. Except there would have been no devolution without the UK Labour fear of Scottish independence. So apart from that reactive policy ( strongly opposed by many in the Labour Party including MPs representing Scottish constituencies)what policies were particularly responsive to Scottish Labour MPs.
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Post by jib on Apr 19, 2024 19:27:19 GMT
Horrifying scenes at the Trump trial. The guy seems to attract the mentally unwell to obsess about him.
I hope he doesn't win in November, but Biden's ego seems to dictate he will.
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Post by mercian on Apr 19, 2024 19:41:47 GMT
As Scottish matters seem to be under discussion I'll share some thing that I learnt today - apparently there were more Scots fighting for Cumberland than for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Apr 19, 2024 20:06:57 GMT
As Scottish matters seem to be under discussion I'll share some thing that I learnt today - apparently there were more Scots fighting for Cumberland than for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden. That might explain why Charlie lost?
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Post by EmCat on Apr 19, 2024 20:08:25 GMT
Rishi using an appearance at the Center for Social Justice to float a trial balloon of "cracking down on disability claimants" at the same time as denying that Long-Covid is a real medical condition. Not sure if this is meant for internal party politics, or if he thinks its an actual positive campaign line. Either way, what a terrible choice of venue to make this declaration, he can't have made many fans there. Hi jayblanc , CSJ is a right-wing think tank. IDS was a founding member, so I would think they would be very receptive to Sunak's speech.On the tech blog site Slashdot, I have seen someone with the tagline that had a "definition" of Social Justice Warrior (which was along the lines of the term being used by the... less than prudent, to describe anyone they didn't like. More recently, they changed their tagline to be the same definition, but with "Social Justice Warrier" replaced by "Woke" By the same token, that suggests that the CSJ will change its name to somehow akin to the "Woke Organisation", as if they can fool sufficient people to think that their views represent their name.
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Post by jen on Apr 19, 2024 20:12:54 GMT
As Scottish matters seem to be under discussion I'll share some thing that I learnt today - apparently there were more Scots fighting for Cumberland than for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden. Indeed, Scots and English on both sides, But Germans were only on the side of YOUR monarchy. Not my king.
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Post by eor on Apr 19, 2024 20:16:15 GMT
Having said that, there are issues with US polling in that the Americans, in their usual spirit of capitalist free enterprise, allow partisan polling. Hence why the main polling aggregators give polling companies in the US a rating on past accuracy. So not all polls are equally valuable. I don't think MoE is a factor as there would have to be a consistent bias in favour of Trump across all pollsters to actually put Biden ahead in the EC, which seems unlikely. They can still be vulnerable en masse to differential turnout - Nate Silver talked in 2016 and 2020 about "a normal polling error" where the final margin from the aggregators could be off by 2-3 points in either direction. As that's on margin between the two and not on their individual shares, it's a relatively slight impact compared to the MoE on an individual poll. But if the election is close enough to start with... But generally yeah, I know you and I have similar caution. And to be fair the US media, in general, is both somewhat anti-Trump and extremely anti-Polldrums so at the moment anything positive for Biden gets amplified out of sight over there, so Biden-optimism regularly flows from a range of normally pretty good sources. Whereas when Trump had a slightly clearer national lead a few months ago, then a few particularly good polls for him led to a slew of media nonsense about getting Biden replaced as the candidate.
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Post by eor on Apr 19, 2024 20:29:24 GMT
As Scottish matters seem to be under discussion I'll share some thing that I learnt today - apparently there were more Scots fighting for Cumberland than for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden. Indeed, Scots and English on both sides, But Germans were only on the side of YOUR monarchy. Not my king. Gonna be a tricky one for the Scotland-in-EU gang...
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Post by jen on Apr 19, 2024 20:29:51 GMT
Rishi using an appearance at the Center for Social Justice to float a trial balloon of "cracking down on disability claimants" at the same time as denying that Long-Covid is a real medical condition. Not sure if this is meant for internal party politics, or if he thinks its an actual positive campaign line. Either way, what a terrible choice of venue to make this declaration, he can't have made many fans there. Hi jayblanc , CSJ is a right-wing think tank. IDS was a founding member, so I would think they would be very receptive to Sunak's speech.I disagree. CSJ is a far right think tank funded by the same fascist money what paid for Brexit. A bit like the fascist Tax Payers Alliance. However, I agree that Sunak is playing to the Nazi gallery. Of course he is, he has no arguments based on facts. Conservatives (it would have been a small "c", but unfortunately was at the beginning of a sentence) deserve better than this corrupt, inept, racist, homophobic, transphobic, misogynistic and ableist TOTAL SCUM. It seems that Starmer is seeking to appeal to this demographic.
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Post by jen on Apr 19, 2024 20:30:38 GMT
Indeed, Scots and English on both sides, But Germans were only on the side of YOUR monarchy. Not my king. Gonna be a tricky one for the Scotland-in-EU gang... Why?
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Post by jib on Apr 19, 2024 20:37:27 GMT
I was thinking about socks again. Cute x
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Post by eor on Apr 19, 2024 20:37:49 GMT
Your post implied that having Germans was...somehow cheating? Whereas my impression is that the people I referred to would be rather happier to be aligned with Germans (and many other nationalities) than purely being aligned with the English.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 20:41:04 GMT
As Scottish matters seem to be under discussion I'll share some thing that I learnt today - apparently there were more Scots fighting for Cumberland than for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden. Indeed, Scots and English on both sides, But Germans were only on the side of YOUR monarchy. Not my king. 'Germans were only on the side of YOUR monarchy' - What on earth is that supposed to mean? For starters there was no German state then but so what? Are you saying you're anti German? Not sure even your sometime sparring partner mercian would admit to that these days. I thought you were pro EU?
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 19, 2024 20:43:21 GMT
jib WTF? I thought that was an advert. This place seems to be even more mental than usual this evening.
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Post by mercian on Apr 19, 2024 20:46:29 GMT
Hi jayblanc , CSJ is a right-wing think tank. IDS was a founding member, so I would think they would be very receptive to Sunak's speech. I disagree. CSJ is a far right think tank funded by the same fascist money what paid for Brexit. A bit like the fascist Tax Payers Alliance. However, I agree that Sunak is playing to the Nazi gallery. Of course he is, he has no arguments based on facts. Conservatives (it would have been a small "c", but unfortunately was at the beginning of a sentence) deserve better than this corrupt, inept, racist, homophobic, transphobic, misogynistic and ableist TOTAL SCUM.It seems that Starmer is seeking to appeal to this demographic. There's no need to be mealy-mouthed. Tell us what you really think.
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