steve
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 13:53:05 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 14:11:08 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol? I'm bemused that some of the same people who have argued for decriminalisation of drugs so a health based harm reduction strategy can be pursued instead, seem to have then supported a smoking ban. Not much joined up thinking there.
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Post by bardin1 on Apr 18, 2024 14:11:59 GMT
I'm bemused that some of the same people who have argued for decriminalisation of drugs so a health based harm reduction strategy can be pursued instead, seem to have then supported a smoking ban. Not much joined up thinking there. Joint up thinking instead?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 18, 2024 14:25:59 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 18, 2024 14:33:37 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 18, 2024 14:36:49 GMT
This could be the sort of polling news that brings Colin back to us sooner than we thought. Or not, as the case may be.
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Post by jayblanc on Apr 18, 2024 14:47:50 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol? I'm bemused that some of the same people who have argued for decriminalisation of drugs so a health based harm reduction strategy can be pursued instead, seem to have then supported a smoking ban. Not much joined up thinking there. Decriminalisation is not the same as making available for licensed public sale. Tobacco will remain decriminalised. So the thinking can in fact be joined up.
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 18, 2024 14:58:46 GMT
I tried putting the latest YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus; the results were (without assuming any tactical voting) Labour 499 seats Tories 64 LibDem 47 SNP 17 Plaid 3 Green 2 +18 Northern Ireland seats. So not yet the official opposition for the Lib Dems but its getting close. The big SNP losses come from their support being at 30% in Scotland (5% behind Labour) in this poll. We will need to see if aggregating the Scottish sub-samples over the next month confirms this.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 18, 2024 15:00:58 GMT
This could be the sort of polling news that brings Colin back to us sooner than we thought. Or not, as the case may be. "working age voters desert tories" - Well, when you've been governing against their interests in favour of the retired for years what do you expect?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 18, 2024 15:05:59 GMT
I tried putting the latest YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus; the results were (without assuming any tactical voting) Labour 499 seats Tories 64 LibDem 47 SNP 17 Plaid 3 Green 2 +18 Northern Ireland seats. So not yet the official opposition for the Lib Dems but its getting close. The big SNP losses come from their support being at 30% in Scotland (5% behind Labour) in this poll. We will need to see if aggregating the Scottish sub-samples over the next month confirms this. Current YG Scots VI aggregate (N=1064) is
SNP 33% : SGP 6% Lab 33% : LD 6% Con 15% : REFUK 5%
"Predictions" based on an internally unweighted sample of 178, on the other hand .......
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 15:10:12 GMT
Neil - sorry for me being dim on this. Are those figures all contemporary figures from the premiership of all of them? Or are they figures relating to what people now think of these mostly historic figures? In other words is it 31% of voters in the 1940s and 1950s or is it 31% of today’s voters giving their verdict on Clem several decades after his premiership? They are the lowest rating while they were PMs I suspect Truss would have been lower if she had been there longer 😀 Thanks Neil. I'd guessed that was the case. So the worst five - all Tories. And the last four Tory PMs ALL in that bottom five. 👍
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 15:12:44 GMT
Can we talk about it over a beer? Well it depends Dave, because conveniently you can set an age range with these things it would seem, and I have decided for the purposes of this example it only applies to people over the age of retirement. So we can chat by all means (possibly about the merits or otherwise of Hick), but while I may be having a bourbon, if you are 65 or over then maybe it’s cranberry juice for you (unless that in turn falls foul of my proposed sugar limits, whereupon it might be sparking water or summat). I take your point. I'm 59 so anyone offering it to me, can stick their cranberry juice where the sun doesn't shine. Mind, I'll be saying that in 20 years time if I'm allowed that long on this planet of ours.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 15:16:45 GMT
Yougov Sorry Dave 😀 Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (16-17 Apr) Con: 21% (+2 from 10-11 Apr) Lab: 44% (-1) Reform UK: 14% (-1) Lib Dem: 8% (=) Green: 8% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Neil - you bring me so much polling joy on here that I forgive you just this once. Besides this ^^^^ would do, wouldn't it? Rhetorical question. 😃 If you can produce one or two more polling gems around 10ish tonight that would be appreciated as I know full well that I will need something to take my mind of other non-polling matters of the footballing nature.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 15:37:20 GMT
There are now 18 mps sitting as "independents" because they've been suspended by their parties, in the case of Tories mostly for sexual impropriety, other reasons include allegations of antisemitism , domestic assault and criminal convictions.
That's more MP's than the Liberal Democrats and the Green party combined.
No one voted for these MP's on the basis they would be unaffiliated to a political party, if suspended for more than 6 months it should automatically trigger a by election.
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 18, 2024 15:47:28 GMT
It's certainly an interesting and revealing league table, and makes intuitive sense when you think of the stature and achievements of some of those near the top and bottom, but considering it's a comparison of depths and political nadirs, isn't it only a partial look at a PM and government's approval and popularity over time? What sustained heights of approval did some of these figures and their governments achieve, for example? I'd also offer the caveat of polling frequency, methodology and reliability across this very wide span (75 years) of time. Apples v Oranges danger? Since many PM will get a popularity boost shortly after they are elected, then the highest approval ratings may not tell as much as the lowest, as (for some) it will be a short boost and then decline, whereas for others it might be a slight boost, but with the running average just a bit below. Yes, I can see that about a deceptive short term popularity boost on first being elected, but I was thinking more about someone like Blair and his first two governments and how he sustained positive approval ratings over most of those eight years in a way few if any other PMs have ever done. In his last two years, he probably plumbed some lowish popularity depths, but his place in any post war league table would be very high if it was judged on approval longevity and heights, I would have thought.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 15:54:32 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol? I'm bemused that some of the same people who have argued for decriminalisation of drugs so a health based harm reduction strategy can be pursued instead, seem to have then supported a smoking ban. Not much joined up thinking there. Maybe it’ll become another one of those hybrid things, where it’s decriminalised for the oldies while they throw the youngsters in the clink!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 15:58:54 GMT
I'm bemused that some of the same people who have argued for decriminalisation of drugs so a health based harm reduction strategy can be pursued instead, seem to have then supported a smoking ban. Not much joined up thinking there. Decriminalisation is not the same as making available for licensed public sale. Tobacco will remain decriminalised. So the thinking can in fact be joined up. A fair point but the effect is that same in medium term. Soon many people (initially children but in just a few years, adults) will be obliged to buy their tobacco illegally. Once the market is well established I would expect many of those who can buy tobacco legally to also switch to the criminal suppliers as they will be able to undercut legal suppliers of tobacco products, not be obliged to add the full amount of the very heavy levels of taxation currently levied. The effect of banning things for which a black market can easily be created is an example of the madness of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 16:04:07 GMT
Well it depends Dave, because conveniently you can set an age range with these things it would seem, and I have decided for the purposes of this example it only applies to people over the age of retirement. So we can chat by all means (possibly about the merits or otherwise of Hick), but while I may be having a bourbon, if you are 65 or over then maybe it’s cranberry juice for you (unless that in turn falls foul of my proposed sugar limits, whereupon it might be sparking water or summat). I take your point. I'm 59 so anyone offering it to me, can stick their cranberry juice where the sun doesn't shine. Mind, I'll be saying that in 20 years time if I'm allowed that long on this planet of ours. Well being as they keep raising the retirement age, one side effect of my plan is that we might never be in the prohibited zone Dave (Though I only drink rather occasionally these days tbh)
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 18, 2024 16:04:39 GMT
I tried putting the latest YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus; the results were (without assuming any tactical voting) Labour 499 seats Tories 64 LibDem 47 SNP 17 Plaid 3 Green 2 +18 Northern Ireland seats. So not yet the official opposition for the Lib Dems but its getting close. The big SNP losses come from their support being at 30% in Scotland (5% behind Labour) in this poll. We will need to see if aggregating the Scottish sub-samples over the next month confirms this. Current YG Scots VI aggregate (N=1064) is
SNP 33% : SGP 6% Lab 33% : LD 6% Con 15% : REFUK 5%
"Predictions" based on an internally unweighted sample of 178, on the other hand .......That, of course, is a "backward-looking" sample and is also internally unweighted. The last 7 YouGov Scottish sub-samples takes us back to 6th March if their MRP poll is excluded.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 16:05:41 GMT
pjw1961 " Soon many people (initially children but in just a few years, adults) will be obliged to buy their tobacco illegally" Well I suppose the initial reaction would be who cares , but with a little bit of additional thought the answer would be no they wouldn't. Assuming no similar ban exists in other countries those who pass their age criteria for purchase can do so there. They can get their cancer stick fixes while on holiday or on other overseas trips.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Apr 18, 2024 16:14:33 GMT
Current YG Scots VI aggregate (N=1064) is
SNP 33% : SGP 6% Lab 33% : LD 6% Con 15% : REFUK 5%
"Predictions" based on an internally unweighted sample of 178, on the other hand ....... That, of course, is a "backward-looking" sample and is also internally unweighted. The last 7 YouGov Scottish sub-samples takes us back to 6th March if their MRP poll is excluded. Due to the increased size of the YG sample, I now use 6 polls to get N>1,000. That covers the period since 13 March to now.
The individual poll VI numbers, in that period, range from SNP 38%/Lab 28% to SNP 30%/Lab 36% - which is why it is foolish to extrapolate from one crossbreak in a single poll.
Of course, you are right that if VI changes in the future, then the seat predictions are likely to change as well. That's why I publish the whole series of aggregate VI in the polling archive thread.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 16:19:46 GMT
“The government has agreed to have an independent IT expert review of a Post Office software system predating Horizon, amid claims dozens more sub-postmasters may have been wrongly convicted.
The Capture software was rolled out across branches in the 1990s, years before the notorious Horizon system was introduced.”
Sky News
In other news: two days to go… 😨🤯😵💫 PUSB
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 16:20:17 GMT
Savanta West Mids Mayoral Labour's 38, down 2 from 2021, seems unlikely to me, yes the new Independent is pro Palestinian, but even if they took all 5 points from Labour, it still seems a low Laour poll Redfield Wilton had Street on 28% and Labour on 42%
NEW West Mids Mayoral Voting Intention for @thenewsagents 📉Narrow 2pt Andy Street lead
🌳Con 40 (-9) 🌹Lab 38 (-2) ➡️Reform 7 (+5) 🔶LD 6 (+2) 🌍Green 5 (-1) ⬜️Independent 5 (NEW)
1,018 in WMCA, 11-17 April (chg vs 2021 result (1st prefs))
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Post by moby on Apr 18, 2024 16:23:14 GMT
Guardian reports:- Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell re-arrested by police over probe into SNP's finances Peter Murrell, former SNP chief executive and husband of ex-first minister Nicola Sturgeon, has been re-arrested in connection with the police investigation into the party’s finances, PA Media reports. PA says the 59-year-old was previously arrested on 5 April last year in the same investigation and was taken into custody this morning.
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Post by johntel on Apr 18, 2024 16:23:45 GMT
As veterans of this sort of party political sniping - oldnat and I have even exchanged photographs of Sturgeon and Rayner camper vans in our endless respective quests for the moral high ground - I think we sort of know what's going on here. Cynical so ands sos that we both are That said, my only, obviously axiomatically extreme partisan observation on the matter, is that Sturgeon was/is being investigated for quite serious financial offences whilst she was First Minister of Scotland and her husband was SNP Treasurer, and that Rayner is being investigated for minor financial offences relating to a time when she wasn't even an MP or politician. As OldNat and I are both sticklers for due process, we will both patiently await the outcomes of these important police investigations. As a gesture of solidarity with the beleaguered OldNat, I would like to place on record that I too abhor the unjustified use of blue tents. Very timely or do you have an inside source Batty?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 16:28:07 GMT
“While many Tory MPs complain that Sunak has made a mistake with his tobacco ban, which passed its second reading on Tuesday night, the prime minister is already mulling another ban: social media for children. Such thinking began at the end of last year and builds on some of the measures in the Online Safety Bill.”
Times
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 16:30:46 GMT
pjw1961 " Soon many people (initially children but in just a few years, adults) will be obliged to buy their tobacco illegally" Well I suppose the initial reaction would be who cares , but with a little bit of additional thought the answer would be no they wouldn't. Assuming no similar ban exists in other countries those who pass their age criteria for purchase can do so there. They can get their cancer stick fixes while on holiday or on other overseas trips. How well has that worked with class A/B/C drugs? - they are cheap and readily available everywhere and purchased in large quantities How well did it work with prohibiting alcohol in the US? You don't stop things happening by banning them. All you do is hand them over to criminals.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 16:32:18 GMT
Guardian reports:- Nicola Sturgeon's husband Peter Murrell re-arrested by police over probe into SNP's finances Peter Murrell, former SNP chief executive and husband of ex-first minister Nicola Sturgeon, has been re-arrested in connection with the police investigation into the party’s finances, PA Media reports. PA says the 59-year-old was previously arrested on 5 April last year in the same investigation and was taken into custody this morning. Realistically the only reason they would re-arrest him would be if they had new evidence to put to him and or they were going to charge him
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Post by jib on Apr 18, 2024 16:54:15 GMT
Great news and a bit of a no brainer really.
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Post by jayblanc on Apr 18, 2024 16:59:25 GMT
pjw1961 " Soon many people (initially children but in just a few years, adults) will be obliged to buy their tobacco illegally" Well I suppose the initial reaction would be who cares , but with a little bit of additional thought the answer would be no they wouldn't. Assuming no similar ban exists in other countries those who pass their age criteria for purchase can do so there. They can get their cancer stick fixes while on holiday or on other overseas trips. How well has that worked with class A/B/C drugs? - they are cheap and readily available everywhere and purchased in large quantities How well did it work with prohibiting alcohol in the US? You don't stop things happening by banning them. All you do is hand them over to criminals. The problem is the "war on drugs" mentality that it must be eliminated, and that the way to do so is through criminalisation of possession. This is entirely self defeating, because it can't be eliminated, and you merely create perverse incentives for criminal gangs to draw people into worse and worse situations. But civic bans at the workplace, retail, licensing, import and sale arenas do not criminalise the individuals, and don't create the same issues. And they are effective at reduction of use, and that's a positive benefit. As I previously stated, consumption of nicotine has plummeted from it's 1970s peak due to the pressures of civic bans and harsher terms of licensing.
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