Danny
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Posts: 9,605
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Post by Danny on Apr 18, 2024 7:39:27 GMT
Changes to the rwanda bill seem to have been very much scaled back by the opposition. One of the two remaining amendments gives the home secretary the power to overrule the presumption that Rwanda is a safe state should evidence come to him to this effect. The amendees justify this as entirely sensible, otherwise a government could be compelled to send refugees into the middle of a war zone, or whatever, because of the legal presumption it is safe. But its a huge elephant trap for a government. What would inevitably happen is evidence would be produced Rwanda is unsafe and then the home secretary would be faced with denying the obvious, with potential legal challenges to his decision, or cancelling flights himself showing the absurdity of the law.
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Danny
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Posts: 9,605
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Post by Danny on Apr 18, 2024 7:45:00 GMT
Post office scandal drags on. Why are we not seeing prosecutions of post office staff responsible for these false prosecutions?
Why isnt the government facilitating them?
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neilj
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Posts: 5,909
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 7:45:59 GMT
Ipsos
💥RECORD BREAKING @ipsosuk VOTING INTENTION 💥
Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6%
Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record)
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 7:51:38 GMT
Future potential Tory leader Kemi Badenoch displaying her total ignorance of the consequences of third nation status in respect of the European union, a status she of course campaigned for. According to Kemi the entirely predictable adverse consequences of imposing trade barriers on yourself were of course the European union's fault. Doesn't bode well for the Tory party in opposition when they lack even a smidgen of a grasp on reality and continue to spout weapons grade total bollocks. youtu.be/OMxlkO9DyVo?si=_FFCx2EySovsZeN1
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 7:52:52 GMT
Ipsos 💥RECORD BREAKING @ipsosuk VOTING INTENTION 💥 Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6% Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record) One for Dave. Con + RefUK = 32, which is unusually low, so may be an outlier.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 7:55:58 GMT
Today's LG by-elections. Not very interesting. Just to say there is a good one next week in Cardiff. Strongly Labour ward with bid Muslim population - will we see a Gaza impact?
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Ely West (Lib Dem resigned) Candidates: AMBROSE SMITH; David Ian (Conservative) TRENT, Ross David (Liberal Democrat) WILSON, Adam Joshua (Labour)
2023: LD 1405, 1324, 1272 (3 elected); Lab 848, 718, 599; Con 831, 809, 747; Grn 401; No Desc 282
Lib Dem hold likely.
WAVERLEY DC; Farnham Castle (Farnham Res resigned) Candidates: EARWAKER, Alan (Farnham Residents) FITCH, Aly (Conservative) GASKELL, John Michael Barrington (Labour) MEREDITH-HARDY, Theresa (Liberal Democrat)
2023: Farnham Res 621, 575; Lab 429; Con 188, 172
Likely Farnham Res hold, although the Lib Dems do have some history here.
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Post by moby on Apr 18, 2024 8:07:55 GMT
As with Wragg, it's not so much what they did, but more that, when faced with extortion / blackmail (pay up £5k for Reasons, in this case; give us other names in Wragg's case), they immediately concede. The government line, for many decades, has always been "we don't negotiate with terrorists". While the individuals concerned weren't being coerced by members of organised terrorist groups, they were still undeniably being terrorised. The fact they caved immediately almost seems as though normalising acquiescence is being done. The defence of Owen Paterson for a minor issue, which ultimately led to Johnson's downfall, seemed to be one of defending a point of principle. If Paterson had done it, then Johnson most definitely had, so the defence was to make the issue go away. (Which it didn't). Hence, I wonder what succumbing to extortion a random senior MP has done? The implication being that if it was "ok, really" for Wragg and Menzies to cough up, then, when the investigation does unearth something similar from someone else, then that person will try the "but it's ok really just to pay up straightaway" defence. Surely we must start regulating these online dating sites instead of blaming its victims. My❤️goes out to MPs Mark Menzies & William Wragg who have had to use these sites & suffered enormously. Something must be done before even more innocent Tory MPs lose their careers!
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Post by moby on Apr 18, 2024 8:11:04 GMT
The Tory whips spreadsheet of Kompromat needs updating again:-
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steve
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Posts: 12,089
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 8:16:52 GMT
pjw1961 Had to feed those numbers through electoral calculus.The I think Labour might struggle to reach a full five year term with their wafer thin 410 seat majority ,still the official opposition consisting of 60 lib dems will be going in waiting for the inevitable collapse. The Tories can save some money by vehicle sharing as the entire parliamentary party will fit comfortably in a Ford Transit minibus. Poor old refukers still refuk all The SNP can take consolation from the fact that despite losing around half their representatives with 23 mps they are still in third place. This election could be genuinely hilarious a total indictment of first past the post of course but hilarious all the same.
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neilj
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Posts: 5,909
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 9:58:01 GMT
Lowest government approval by PM (Gallup/MORI): Attlee 31% Churchill (51-55) 40% Eden 34% Macmillan: 30% Douglas-Home 36% Wilson (64-70) 17% Heath 22% Wilson (74-76) 27% Callaghan 17% Thatcher 16% Major 8% Blair 22% Brown 16% Cameron 24% May 8% Johnson 14% Truss 11% Sunak 10%
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Post by Mark on Apr 18, 2024 10:11:07 GMT
Just out of interest @mark, do you agree with the law to make people wear safety belts in cars? I suspect that the smoking ban will save a similar number of lives, though I don't have figures. Yes, I agree with the law makin people wear seatbelts. This is a law that applies the same to everyone, is a simple thin to leislate for and does not have unintended side effects. While I would support laws to dscourage smoking (I have already stated that I support previous laws 100%), I don't support this law as... * Not evryone is equal under the law * It could have unintended conseqences - includng potentally brngng people into contact with substances more harmful than tobacco * Is likely to be innefective * Could even potentially lead to some taking up smoking that otherwise might not.
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 18, 2024 10:42:20 GMT
As veterans of this sort of party political sniping - oldnat and I have even exchanged photographs of Sturgeon and Rayner camper vans in our endless respective quests for the moral high ground - I think we sort of know what's going on here. Cynical so ands sos that we both are That said, my only, obviously axiomatically extreme partisan observation on the matter, is that Sturgeon was/is being investigated for quite serious financial offences whilst she was First Minister of Scotland and her husband was SNP Treasurer, and that Rayner is being investigated for minor financial offences relating to a time when she wasn't even an MP or politician. As OldNat and I are both sticklers for due process, we will both patiently await the outcomes of these important police investigations. As a gesture of solidarity with the beleaguered OldNat, I would like to place on record that I too abhor the unjustified use of blue tents.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 10:42:46 GMT
Lowest government approval by PM (Gallup/MORI): Attlee 31% Churchill (51-55) 40% Eden 34% Macmillan: 30% Douglas-Home 36% Wilson (64-70) 17% Heath 22% Wilson (74-76) 27% Callaghan 17% Thatcher 16% Major 8% Blair 22% Brown 16% Cameron 24% May 8% Johnson 14% Truss 11% Sunak 10% In order - even allowing for the reduced deference to politicians our recent ones do not fare well. Churchill (51-55) 40% Douglas-Home 36% Eden 34% Attlee 31% Macmillan: 30% Wilson (74-76) 27% Cameron 24% Blair 22% Heath 22% Wilson (64-70) 17% Callaghan 17% Brown 16% Thatcher 16% Johnson 14% Truss 11% Sunak 10% Major 8% May 8%
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,032
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Post by oldnat on Apr 18, 2024 10:44:42 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 18, 2024 10:56:29 GMT
Well the cost of Beluga caviar and white truffles is dreadful these days and heating your outdoor swimming pool all year round is very expensive - have some sympathy!
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steve
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Posts: 12,089
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Post by steve on Apr 18, 2024 11:20:35 GMT
More world beating.
Rishi Sunak’s approval rating hits record low for a PM, suggests poll – UK politics live Rating of -59 is record low for a prime minister in modern times – matching John Major’s score in August 1994, according to Ipsos
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 11:55:45 GMT
Ipsos 💥RECORD BREAKING @ipsosuk VOTING INTENTION 💥 Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6% Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record) One for Dave. Con + RefUK = 32, which is unusually low, so may be an outlier. Don’t burst my bubble bud. The way I’m reading this poll is that the right is f***ed and if anyone says otherwise, I’ll stick my fingers in my ears and go “LA LA LA ……”. 🥳
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 12:00:50 GMT
Lowest government approval by PM (Gallup/MORI): Attlee 31% Churchill (51-55) 40% Eden 34% Macmillan: 30% Douglas-Home 36% Wilson (64-70) 17% Heath 22% Wilson (74-76) 27% Callaghan 17% Thatcher 16% Major 8% Blair 22% Brown 16% Cameron 24% May 8% Johnson 14% Truss 11% Sunak 10% Neil - sorry for me being dim on this. Are those figures all contemporary figures from the premiership of all of them? Or are they figures relating to what people now think of these mostly historic figures? In other words is it 31% of voters in the 1940s and 1950s or is it 31% of today’s voters giving their verdict on Clem several decades after his premiership?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,971
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 12:12:44 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol?
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Apr 18, 2024 12:17:42 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol? Can we talk about it over a beer?
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neilj
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Posts: 5,909
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 12:25:59 GMT
Lowest government approval by PM (Gallup/MORI): Attlee 31% Churchill (51-55) 40% Eden 34% Macmillan: 30% Douglas-Home 36% Wilson (64-70) 17% Heath 22% Wilson (74-76) 27% Callaghan 17% Thatcher 16% Major 8% Blair 22% Brown 16% Cameron 24% May 8% Johnson 14% Truss 11% Sunak 10% Neil - sorry for me being dim on this. Are those figures all contemporary figures from the premiership of all of them? Or are they figures relating to what people now think of these mostly historic figures? In other words is it 31% of voters in the 1940s and 1950s or is it 31% of today’s voters giving their verdict on Clem several decades after his premiership? They are the lowest rating while they were PMs I suspect Truss would have been lower if she had been there longer 😀
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Post by crossbat11 on Apr 18, 2024 12:48:57 GMT
Neil - sorry for me being dim on this. Are those figures all contemporary figures from the premiership of all of them? Or are they figures relating to what people now think of these mostly historic figures? In other words is it 31% of voters in the 1940s and 1950s or is it 31% of today’s voters giving their verdict on Clem several decades after his premiership? They are the lowest rating while they were PMs I suspect Truss would have been lower if she had been there longer 😀 It's certainly an interesting and revealing league table, and makes intuitive sense when you think of the stature and achievements of some of those near the top and bottom, but considering it's a comparison of depths and political nadirs, isn't it only a partial look at a PM and government's approval and popularity over time? What sustained heights of approval did some of these figures and their governments achieve, for example? I'd also offer the caveat of polling frequency, methodology and reliability across this very wide span (75 years) of time. Apples v Oranges danger?
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 5,971
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 18, 2024 12:57:28 GMT
So if people are ok with outlawing smoking because of the harm that results to smokers and others, what about alcohol? Can we talk about it over a beer? Well it depends Dave, because conveniently you can set an age range with these things it would seem, and I have decided for the purposes of this example it only applies to people over the age of retirement. So we can chat by all means (possibly about the merits or otherwise of Hick), but while I may be having a bourbon, if you are 65 or over then maybe it’s cranberry juice for you (unless that in turn falls foul of my proposed sugar limits, whereupon it might be sparking water or summat).
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Post by EmCat on Apr 18, 2024 13:01:03 GMT
They are the lowest rating while they were PMs I suspect Truss would have been lower if she had been there longer 😀 It's certainly an interesting and revealing league table, and makes intuitive sense when you think of the stature and achievements of some of those near the top and bottom, but considering it's a comparison of depths and political nadirs, isn't it only a partial look at a PM and government's approval and popularity over time? What sustained heights of approval did some of these figures and their governments achieve, for example? I'd also offer the caveat of polling frequency, methodology and reliability across this very wide span (75 years) of time. Apples v Oranges danger? Since many PM will get a popularity boost shortly after they are elected, then the highest approval ratings may not tell as much as the lowest, as (for some) it will be a short boost and then decline, whereas for others it might be a slight boost, but with the running average just a bit below.
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Post by Mark on Apr 18, 2024 13:15:14 GMT
Ipsos 💥RECORD BREAKING @ipsosuk VOTING INTENTION 💥 Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6% Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record) One for Dave. Con + RefUK = 32, which is unusually low, so may be an outlier. If you compare that with 1997, which is where I think we are now, grouping the parties shows very similar territory. Labour 43% (1997 - 44%) RoC grouping (Con + Ref) 32% (1997, Con + UKIP, 33%) Mainstream 3rd party (LibDem + Green) 18% (1997 LibDem + Green 19%)
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Post by James E on Apr 18, 2024 13:21:17 GMT
Ipsos 💥RECORD BREAKING @ipsosuk VOTING INTENTION 💥 Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6% Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record) One for Dave. Con + RefUK = 32, which is unusually low, so may be an outlier. This seems to be a 'house effect' with Ipsos, as the 32% in this poll is actually the highest they have recorded recently for Con+Ref. Their 6 most recent polls have been: Oct '23 Con 24 + Ref 4 = 28 Nov '23 Con 25+Ref 4 =29 Dec '23 Con 24+ Ref 7 =31 Jan '24 Con 27 +Ref 4 =31 Feb '24 Con 20+ Ref 8 =28 Apr '24 Con 19+ Ref 13 =32 As of a few years ago, Ipsos were unique in not weighting by past vote, which eliminates the issue of false recall. Other than that, I don't know what would cause their figures to diverge so far from most other pollsters (though YouGov frequently show Con +Ref as 34%).
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neilj
Member
Posts: 5,909
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Post by neilj on Apr 18, 2024 13:24:26 GMT
Yougov Sorry Dave 😀 Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (16-17 Apr) Con: 21% (+2 from 10-11 Apr) Lab: 44% (-1) Reform UK: 14% (-1) Lib Dem: 8% (=) Green: 8% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
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Post by shevii on Apr 18, 2024 13:27:04 GMT
Worth flagging up the crowdfunding campaigns currently going on for independents. I've probably missed a lot but these are the ones that get flagged up: Jamie Driscoll £145k Emma Dent Coad (Kensington) £37k Andrew Feinstein (vs Starmer) £36k Leanne Mohamad (vs Streeting) £26k Most of the candidates seem to be good for about £5k from crowdfunding although you never can be quite sure if those donations would have come in anyway via other means. LD, Greens and SNP seem to be the ones who most go down this route but quite a few Labour as well- some stunning failures too where someone seems to have set it up but not publicised it. This is only one site but I think one of the bigger ones: www.crowdfunder.co.uk/search/projects?query=politics&category=Politics&map=offGofund me is another site with a reform candidate stuck on £85 of his £5k target after 8 months :-)
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Post by mercian on Apr 18, 2024 13:39:08 GMT
alec and DannyCan I just sum up your months if not years of Covid debate: 1) Danny thinks Covid started in this country in Hastings in late 2019 and isn't that serious. 2) Alec thinks it didn't and is very serious. Neither of you are ever going to change your mind. Can't you just accept that you will never agree and each just walk away thinking that the other one is an idiot? It would make the board less tedious.
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Post by mercian on Apr 18, 2024 13:50:24 GMT
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