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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 8:29:49 GMT
Useful analysis of the effect of dissatisfaction among Muslim vote on Labour wins In short he says it won't effect the chances of Labour winning seats in any appreciable numbers, if at all Labour Opposition leaders usually get unfavourable media coverage, if they get much at all, between elections, so the question here might well be, with so many people saying that they still don't really know Starmer, for good or for bad, is whether the election campaign may benefit Starmer? Greater exposure, and more balanced too. Without getting into strong suspicion territory, is it worth speculating, maybe, that his ratings might improve the more that voters see him? Without the biased media prism filtering the image too. Just a thought, as Ted the Northern Cat might say. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 8:34:36 GMT
I see I've topped Page 2 again. Page 3 is my ultimate ambition.
It tends to be the "turn-to" page on the increasingly tabloid UKPR2.
I suppose it's posters like me that have dragged it down market.
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Post by barbara on Feb 6, 2024 8:34:48 GMT
They may well be some of the Labour Brexiters who temporarily deserted Labour in 2019 for that other well known narcissist and wannabee dictator Johnson. |
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Post by barbara on Feb 6, 2024 8:37:31 GMT
There are clearly a lot of people who admire a man (not so much a woman) who “says what he thinks”. Actually analysing it is, of course, another matter. Another thought is that we are thinking about people who pay very little attention to world affairs and politics generally. They probably think along the lines of: “He’d be good for a laugh.” The very words of my sister about both Trump and Johnson. And on her vote for Brexit "I fancied a change" |
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Post by johntel on Feb 6, 2024 8:50:54 GMT
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2024 8:53:25 GMT
Danny - "Health statistics have deteriorated from the point in time con took over from lab in 2010." Please try reading. The figures for long term sick have not declined markedly from 2010 - 2020. There was a gentle fall, some stasis, and some very modest increases towards the end of the period, before a massive explosion once covid arrived. Please stop making stuff up.
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2024 8:56:40 GMT
johntel - "Not really a fair comparison. Cancer is life-threatening, dentistry isn't." Yes of course. I forgot to mention that you can see King Charles about halfway down that queue in Bristol.....doh! Gotta say it; that's a classic case of the supine acceptance of a load of shit being poured on your head again and again. Don't look for excuses. Whether it's cancer wait times or dentists, ordinary voters in this country are being taken for fools, and you should be very angry about it.
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 9:00:06 GMT
Another thought is that we are thinking about people who pay very little attention to world affairs and politics generally. They probably think along the lines of: “He’d be good for a laugh.” The very words of my sister about both Trump and Johnson. And on her vote for Brexit "I fancied a change" Johnson won the "who would you most prefer to go out for a drink with" vote in 2019. I had quite a few conversations with people in that election whose vote was largely determined on that basis. The psephological phenomenon was first officially identified when George W Bush won the Presidency in the US. He was the voters go-to drinking companion. I suppose likeability has always been a valuable political commodity, however it may be defined, but I wonder whether it's a consequence too of the culture of contentment that seems to be widespread now. Large proportions of electorates in wealthy western democracies live affluent and materially comfortable lives and feel that they can afford themselves self indulgent and trivial political choices. Not exactly the end of history, but a political debate that is reduced to the exchange of inanities. Because either way, the big issues don't really matter to them. Their affluence makes them insulated spectators rather than participants with agency in a vibrant democracy. Buffoons, and sometimes worse, flourish. Politics is a subject of mockery in a trivialised world. |
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Post by johntel on Feb 6, 2024 9:04:04 GMT
johntel - "Not really a fair comparison. Cancer is life-threatening, dentistry isn't." Yes of course. I forgot to mention that you can see King Charles about halfway down that queue in Bristol.....doh! Gotta say it; that's a classic case of the supine acceptance of a load of shit being poured on your head again and again. Don't look for excuses. Whether it's cancer wait times or dentists, ordinary voters in this country are being taken for fools, and you should be very angry about it. Well others in the profession could comment much better than me, but I suspect that anyone whose cancer was discovered during a routine NHS operation for something else would have their cancer treatment started pretty quickly. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 6, 2024 9:07:50 GMT
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2024 9:16:09 GMT
Danny - If it's easier for you to look at pictures, here's a graph of the long term sick data - You'll see clearly how overall it declined quite sharply from 2010 - 2020, with a little blip around 2017, before falling. It was broadly flat for a couple of years before covid arrived, and then exploded. You've made the point previously that long term sick is defined as >12 months, so the rise *should* start 12 months after covid arrived, but in claiming this, you've misunderstood the flow dynamics of the NHS. Long term sick rates would start rising immediately, because of the indirect effects on the NHS. Someone on the waiting lists for treatment to fix a problem in March 2020 could have been on the list for 11 months, then had an operation cancelled, thereby immediately adding to the long term sick rate. As time goes by, actual sickness caused by covid then adds to the issue, but the who picture is dominated by covid.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 6, 2024 9:33:02 GMT
For months the GOP has delayed much needed aid to Ukraine in its fight against war criminal Putin. Demanding that it be tied to immigration controls on the southern border. The Senate has finally agreed a bipartisan proposal that addresses all of the talking points and faux fears that the republicans have triggered. It's the most restrictive migration policy ever. It comes with much needed support for Ukraine. It's everything the republicans demanded. Step forward Putin's best buddy , apparently getting everything they wanted in what they described as an existential crisis is no longer wanted as it will give President Biden a win and remove their main fear based talking point. So despite it being what they asked for Trumps cultists in the house are going to reject the Republican scripted bill they demanded and funding for Ukraine because the traitor demands it of them. This maga controlled mad house will have achieved the least policies passed ever in a two year period, because their cult leader orders it. youtu.be/_gj8nopxwIY?si=CasYQIIYlaUPwasF |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 6, 2024 9:34:44 GMT
'Liz Truss is set to launch a new movement within the Tories called the Popular Conservatives"
After the election it can be renamed as the surviving conservative.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2024 9:37:20 GMT
Sometimes I really wish the Brits were like French farmers. You mean like the French Farmers protesting about EU agri-regulation , and the operation of the CAP ?  |
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Post by steve on Feb 6, 2024 9:38:07 GMT
Alec
I've mentioned before that the long term sick rate here isn't matched internationally in countries with similar covid experience.
I can't recall you having addressed this. It's probable that having the most inept government ever since 2015 has something to do with it.
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Post by neilj on Feb 6, 2024 9:38:17 GMT
'Liz Truss is set to launch a new movement within the Tories called the Popular Conservatives" After the election it can be renamed as the surviving conservative. Can't help thinking this would be more appropriate 😀 youtu.be/4vuW6tQ0218?feature=shared |
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Post by mandolinist on Feb 6, 2024 9:41:03 GMT
Alec I'm sure he'll receive the best treatment our money can buy. As someone who is currently five weeks into the "two week urgent" cancer pathway and still waiting for some basic tests, I can only say that the news of our head of state bypassing the NHS makes me bloody furious. Not that I am expecting anything other than the all clear once the tests are all complete, but honestly why have these targets at all? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 9:41:42 GMT
'Liz Truss is set to launch a new movement within the Tories called the Popular Conservatives" After the election it can be renamed as the surviving conservative. Oxymoronic titled political parties seldom prosper. Nor nation states. Think Honecher's German Democratic Republic. East Germany made geographical sense though. |
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Post by mandolinist on Feb 6, 2024 9:51:20 GMT
Lack of dentistry certainly can be. There are people alive today whose mouth cancers were spotted and diagnosed at routine dental appointments, it is an integral part of dental care. In addition there are children all over this benighted country, and I mean England here, who are arriving at A&E for emergency extractions because they have never seen a dentist.
This downplaying of the importance of oral health is part of the problem for NHS dentistry, it has become another service which has been neglected and ignored by people who can afford the private alternatives at the expense of those who have no recourse to dental care of any sort.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2024 9:54:33 GMT
but I wonder whether it's a consequence too of the culture of contentment that seems to be widespread now. Large proportions of electorates in wealthy western democracies live affluent and materially comfortable lives and feel that they can afford themselves self indulgent and trivial political choices. eh ? ! I thought polling demonstrated widespread discontent with politics and the difficulties of just getting bye . I agree that the sort of people you identify-affluent and comfortable-are not unrepresented on this forum, but are they really present in sufficient numbers to outweigh the hard pressed majority of voters ? And what , if the political choices you complain about-Trump & Johnson-are "self indulgent"" & "trivial" , does that say about the alternatives which were rejected ? What was so compelling about 13 years of Mark Rutte , when the self indulgent Dutch voter turned to Geert Wilders ?. Never forget that elections are about choices-rejection as much as acceptance. I think people with attitudes like yours are in for a shock over the coming months and whilst you might count yourself fortunate to be insulated here in UK from the self indulgent masses in other countries , non of us will be unnaffected by the reaction to the patronising, complacent politics which your post typifies |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 9:57:32 GMT
More memories of old but now long gone UKPR posters. Former regular and copious posters that have suddenly disappeared.
Does anyone remember Bantams? He was a Bradford City fan, hence the moniker I suppose, who led us to believe that he was a former Lib Dem activist turned fairly ardent Tory supporter.
He added to the gaiety of the nation and, rather unusually for me, I engaged in much light hearted football banter with him. These were the days of consistent big Tory leads in the polls and old Bantams couldn't wait to bring these polls to this site for our predilection. Rather triumphantly I always thought. I used to chide him for doing so, gently as is my wont, but he would have none of it. His Lib Dem past jettisoned as if it never existed. Johntel could teach him a thing or two about party loyalty.
I wonder if he's still a Tory supporter or has he returned to the Lib Dem fold?
Or has he formed a new party with cbx1985 and Trevor? Turk even. Popular Conservatives might be a good name for such a quixotic and maverick party. Real voters may appreciate it too.
🤔😉😜
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 6, 2024 10:04:58 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 6, 2024 10:25:44 GMT
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Post by Danny on Feb 6, 2024 10:26:57 GMT
The piers Morgan/ sunak bet isnt quite how it was sold.
Morgan offered to pay £1000 to a charity if anyone got deported to Rwanda before the election. Sunak merely said he wants to get people on a plane. He repeated it several time he WANTS to. He never said he expected to.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2024 10:35:02 GMT
Good luck to Labour candidate Gen Kitchen in the upcoming Wellingborough election. Here she is taking a break with her campaign manager Idris Elba. View AttachmentView AttachmentShe looks young to be a General. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 6, 2024 10:37:33 GMT
Alec I'm sure he'll receive the best treatment our money can buy. As someone who is currently five weeks into the "two week urgent" cancer pathway and still waiting for some basic tests, I can only say that the news of our head of state bypassing the NHS makes me bloody furious. Not that I am expecting anything other than the all clear once the tests are all complete, but honestly why have these targets at all? Providing excellent medical care to a hereditary head of state is more of a job perk than anything to do with health care for ordinary people. If you are going to have the institution of monarchy, then you have to pay for all the bells and whistles too. Do I take it you think monarchy should be abolished? (personally I think you either do it properly, or not at all, and we are not doing it properly. A monarch needs to actually rule. As it is, he is just a frontman for the government of the day, an actor paid to smooth over their difficulties) |
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Post by domjg on Feb 6, 2024 10:38:53 GMT
More memories of old but now long gone UKPR posters. Former regular and copious posters that have suddenly disappeared. Does anyone remember Bantams? He was a Bradford City fan, hence the moniker I suppose, who led us to believe that he was a former Lib Dem activist turned fairly ardent Tory supporter. He added to the gaiety of the nation and, rather unusually for me, I engaged in much light hearted football banter with him. These were the days of consistent big Tory leads in the polls and old Bantams couldn't wait to bring these polls to this site for our predilection. Rather triumphantly I always thought. I used to chide him for doing so, gently as is my wont, but he would have none of it. His Lib Dem past jettisoned as if it never existed. Johntel could teach him a thing or two about party loyalty. I wonder if he's still a Tory supporter or has he returned to the Lib Dem fold? Or has he formed a new party with cbx1985 and Trevor? Turk even. Popular Conservatives might be a good name for such a quixotic and maverick party. Real voters may appreciate it too. 🤔😉😜 I think "as if it never existed" is the key phrase. |
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2024 10:40:38 GMT
steve - "I can't recall you having addressed this. It's probable that having the most inept government ever since 2015 has something to do with it." You actually raised a point about US employment rates, which I did answer. The US was actually the first country to raise the alarm over covid related employment problems, with the Fed warning in 2022 that long covid was already proving to be a major drag on the US economy. The US census bureau survey found 4m people couldn't work due to covid, estimating that this was costing the US economy between $170 - $230bn. Australia has witnessed a major increase in sick leave, and a report from German health insurers last month concluded that lost working hours had increased by over 100%, and the increase was sufficient to turn what would have been an annual GDP growth of +0.5% into a mild recession of -0.3%. I appreciate you don't want Covid to be a problem, and you do want the Conservatives to take the blame for everything, but the data is clear; yes, the Tories are useless, but yes, everyone is feeling to economic hit of declining health due to the pandemic. It's actually a lot worse than most people appreciate, and still heading in the wrong direction. Like I said before, in terms of NHS waiting lists, these were rising by 200,000 a year 2010 - 2020. That's awful, and a terrible indictment of a decade of Conservative failure. But since 2020 they have been rising by 1.1m a year. Something huge happened in 2020 that we really can't hide from, and burying our heads in the sand won't make this go away.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 6, 2024 10:48:40 GMT
Danny - If it's easier for you to look at pictures, here's a graph of the long term sick data - You'll see clearly how overall it declined quite sharply from 2010 - 2020, with a little blip around 2017, before falling. It was broadly flat for a couple of years before covid arrived, and then exploded. The image you linked shows long term sick rising under conservatives until about 1997, then slowing and starting to fall under labour. There seems to be a steady trend rate of fall from maybe 2001 until about 2017 (with ups and downs along the way), then a flattening and pickup clear from about 2019 to 2023. In other words, starting before covid. Its impossible to tell in more detail from that graph which has imprecise dating, but it looks as though the surge in long term illness began before covid and was largely unaffected by covid. What is certainly true is that the trend fall in long term sicks from 2001 had flattened out and stopped falling two or three years before covid, so the trend was already changing from fall to rise. This all smacks of it being the result of government policy around 2016, not covid at all. You could almost say the most obvious thing happening at that time was Brexit, so has that caused a trend for people to declare as long term sick? I'm afraid I dont get your point. Its absolutely true normal NHS services were disrupted by lockdown and special measures. But if you are arguing this disruption of services is the problem, not actual covid illness, then lets be clear this is a result of what we chose to do. We could alternatively have encouraged covid to run its course naturally and quickly and therefore resumed normal medical services very much faster. The policy we adopted was INTENDED to make the epidemic last longer, that was one of its goals, to try to delay it until after vaccines arrived and ended it. Well the vaccines did not end it and it seems likely covid did its worst anyway before they arrived, so nothing was achieved by trying to drag it out. Except perhaps the NHS was disrupted for twice as long. Otherwise, I do not understand your comment. If covid is causing long term illness, then was no 'pipeline' of cases just about to drop. A healthy peson would have to catch it, be ill for 12 months and only then be counted as long term sick. So there would be no increase until about spring 21, and it shouldnt at all be linear, it should come in surges corresponding to 12 months after each epidemic wave. Alternatively, are you trying to say covid only affected people who were already very ill, so it tipped some of them over to staying ill a bit longer and qualifying as long terms sick by virtue of extendng their illness beyond 12 months? If so, thats somewhat different because firstly it means only the segment of the population already ill is affected by covid, and secondly, how is that a surprise? The biggest failing in all this has been to try to treat the entire population exacty the same, whereas it has always been a safe majority and an at risk minority. Whhat we did mostly protected people who were always safe and in so doing extended the outbreak forcing more cases amongst the old at risk. We probably did worse than Sweden BECAUSE we had mandatory lockdown. Covid is a total red herring, though without it the demise of the government might have come sooner, it gave them a cause just as brexit was faltering. The issue is not what tops the charts at the moment for causing deaths, which isnt covid rather its cancer. Its probably been cancer all the time, covid or not, and certainly about x10 more people died from something other than covid every covid year. The whole issue is that it has NEVER been anything like as bad as it was sold, and you keep still trying to blame it for fundamentally a funding question about how big an NHS we want. Who will we choose to leave to die, and who try to keep alive? |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 6, 2024 10:50:42 GMT
Good luck to Labour candidate Gen Kitchen in the upcoming Wellingborough election. Here she is taking a break with her campaign manager Idris Elba. View AttachmentView AttachmentShe looks young to be a General. I believe her election posters read 'Wellingborough Needs You'. |
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