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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 15:18:11 GMT
neilj (and barbara ) - the drop in births is interesting. From 2012 - 2020 the fall in live births average - 1.77% pa, with only one year showing growth (2015/16 at +1.8%). In the three years since 2020 the fall has been -2.49%, with a big rise in 21/22 of +3.36% book-ended by very large falls of -5.41% in both 20/21 and 22/23. It looks like the pandemic saw a step change in the fall. I think it's difficult to draw firm conclusions just yet, as these years were so odd for so many reasons, but 20/21 I think it's pretty clear births fell because of pandemic disruption more than anything else. The following year saw a significant bounce back, which will presumably be delayed pregnancies in part. Then another extremely big fall in 22/23, which is when it gets really interesting. The cost of living crisis must have had something to do with this, as recessions are known to suppress birth rates, but there is also mounting evidence of Covid causing a surprisingly large level of male infertility, even with mild infection. It remains to be seen whether this is a major factor in the figures to date, although I suspect it will become more of a factor over time, as we start going through multiple infections. Yes, you showed yesterday that less passes are being made by men who had covid. Though admittedly that was Spaniards and Italians, who may have been starting from a higher base. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Feb 9, 2024 15:33:42 GMT
There is a wide divergence in Scottish Westminster polling at the moment, with Ipsos showing the SNP 10% and 7% ahead in their two most recent polls, while the most recent YouGov (in the wake of the Rutherglen by-election in October) put Labour ahead 38/32. However, Ipsos's last 4 polls in Scotland have all shown much better figures for the SNP than any other pollster. As I have noted above, YouGov's Scottish cross-breaks for Jan/Feb 2024 are not far from that showing Labour 4 points ahead, suggesting that their 6 point lead was not a total one-off. The difference between Ipsos and YouGov is stark when it comes to predicting seats, as it could shift about 20 seats in either direction. However, there are other pollsters whose full Scottish figures are in the middle ground. An average of the 4 most recent polls we have from R&W, Ipsos, Survation and Norstat (formerly Panelbase), plus those YG cross-break figures gives us: SNP 35% Lab 34% Con 15%. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
Anthony Wells, in his 2019 article, noted that "In more recent years, recalled vote seemed to be closer to reality, and it has become less of an issue" - but I suspect that the widespread abhorrence at the current UKGov may have increased the numbers likely to have wiped from their minds that they voted Con in 2019, and now "remember" that they voted Labour - that might be particularly true in Scotland!
yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/24349-false-recall-and-how-it-affects-polling
Butlerian swing was (and can still be) a useful measure, but it was formulated for a political system in GB where there were only 2 significant parties, and floating voters largely moved between them. It is less useful where there are 3 or more significant parties - especially when there has been a huge shift at the previous election from one to another.
As Prof Curtice pointed out -
"The professor added that there is a “tendency to assume” that polls tell a narrative of Labour “gradually and increasingly gaining ground at the expense of the SNP”.
However, he said this was a “misinterpretation of the evidence” as Labour’s gains could be traced back to Boris Johnson’s partygate scandal and Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget, both at the Scottish and UK-wide level.
But, with support for the SNP falling, the pollster added that Scottish Labour are “certainly breathing down the SNP’s neck”.
“That's enough to create an awful lot of marginal seats in Scotland,” he added.
“And a prospect whereby Labour and the SNP may be both around 24 points after the election, rather than the SNP so clearly being dominant at Westminster at the moment.”
www.thenational.scot/news/24107598.john-curtice-gives-verdict-new-polls-really-mean-snp/
Consequently, it's worth noting all the interparty Butlerian swings in Scotland
SNP to Lab 15%
Con to Lab 14%
LD to Lab 11%
and even (though I doubt that SGP and REFUK will each get 6% of the vote in 2024)
SNP to SGP 9%
Con to REFUK 8% EDIT : I think that should read "24 MPs" not "24 points". |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 15:48:28 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself: '' @redfieldwilton Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll. Westminster VI (3-5 February): Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH 09/02/2024, 15:00'' Thanks for posting, some more findings - Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled. Westminster VI, By Age (3-5 February): Labour's lead by age group: 18-24: 36% 25-34: 28% 35-44: 26% 45-54: 19% 55-64: 12% 65+: 7% |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 15:51:20 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself: '' @redfieldwilton Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll. Westminster VI (3-5 February): Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH 09/02/2024, 15:00'' @jimjam Can I join colin in liking your post and its rather encouraging contents very much. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 15:54:39 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself: '' @redfieldwilton Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll. Westminster VI (3-5 February): Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH 09/02/2024, 15:00'' Thanks for posting, some more findings - Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled. Westminster VI, By Age (3-5 February): Labour's lead by age group: 18-24: 36% 25-34: 28% 35-44: 26% 45-54: 19% 55-64: 12% 65+: 7% I'm going to play the mercian game here and forward my first extreme policy proposal. Make voting illegal once you get to the age of 60 and drop the voting qualification age to 14. Over to you oh Mercy Man of the Burlesque Bargepole fame! |
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Post by richardstamper on Feb 9, 2024 15:58:04 GMT
Inflation as measured by the CPI peaked at circa 11% and is currently at 4%. There are suggestions that ove the next few months it will fall further to 2% before ticking up again over the Summer. The fall in inflation from 11% to 4% does not appear to have boosted Tory polling at all , so it is not obvious that a decline from 4% to circa 2% is likely to make much difference. Consumer confidence doesn't just flip overnight graham it takes time to gather momentum. The people hardest hit over the last few years will be the last to see any improvement unfortunately, but the ones who were worried about their fixed term mortgages coming to an end this year will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Of course some new, as yet unknown, economic shock could be just around the corner for all I know - I'm just extrapolating the trend from the last few months. Falling inflation is not going to save everyone having to get a new fixed rate mortgage rate this year - there's still plenty of pain to come. Historical UK rates are at www.statista.com/statistics/386301/uk-average-mortgage-interest-rates/ with current fixes somewhere between 5% and 6% depending on term with the BoE rate at 5.25%. The BoE rate is forecast to come down to 4.25% by December 2024, so a 3-year fix might come down from its present value of 5.78% to say 4.78%. If you fixed for three years in September 2021 the average rate was 1.18% so your interest payments will at least quadruple. Ouch. People on 2-year fixes taken at the end of 2022 have already taken most of the pain, but those who fixed earlier in that year may still be facing a doubling in interest. |
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Post by hireton on Feb 9, 2024 16:13:34 GMT
moby "The economic stimulus depends on borrowing to invest on the international markets. Interest rates have gone up to 5% since the original announcement was made. Doing a U turn prior to publishing the manifesto is surely better than persisting with a policy in changed economic circumstances and then being unable to deliver it if elected." Indeed, it is better. But it doesn't solve Labour's self-imposed fiscal bind which is that they cannot invest in improving public services and the residual green investment plan while keeping to its fiscal rules. Economic growth could relax the bind but increasingly it looks like Labour wlll be relying on supply side reforms - such as planning reform - to achieve that.
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 16:17:07 GMT
Consumer confidence doesn't just flip overnight graham it takes time to gather momentum. The people hardest hit over the last few years will be the last to see any improvement unfortunately, but the ones who were worried about their fixed term mortgages coming to an end this year will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Of course some new, as yet unknown, economic shock could be just around the corner for all I know - I'm just extrapolating the trend from the last few months. Falling inflation is not going to save everyone having to get a new fixed rate mortgage rate this year - there's still plenty of pain to come. Historical UK rates are at www.statista.com/statistics/386301/uk-average-mortgage-interest-rates/ with current fixes somewhere between 5% and 6% depending on term with the BoE rate at 5.25%. The BoE rate is forecast to come down to 4.25% by December 2024, so a 3-year fix might come down from its present value of 5.78% to say 4.78%. If you fixed for three years in September 2021 the average rate was 1.18% so your interest payments will at least quadruple. Ouch. People on 2-year fixes taken at the end of 2022 have already taken most of the pain, but those who fixed earlier in that year may still be facing a doubling in interest. I'm currently re-mortgaging at 4.5% for 2 years and certain mortgages are already available at less than 4%. Some pundits are forecasting that the BoE rate will come down much faster than expected - theres no kudos to be gained by undershooting the 2% target. And anyone who mortgaged at 1.18% 3 years ago has saved a huge amount in that time so they can hardy complain. |
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Post by jimjam on Feb 9, 2024 16:23:00 GMT
CB
''@jimjam
Can I join Colin in liking your post and its rather encouraging contents very much.''
You may; although I suspect Colin is liking my posting a poll rather than the contents of the poll :-)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 16:39:30 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself: '' @redfieldwilton Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll. Westminster VI (3-5 February): Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH 09/02/2024, 15:00'' @jimjam Can I join colin in liking your post and its rather encouraging contents very much. You know nothing about ole colin’s political preferences.  |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 16:43:00 GMT
Also worth noting that the Redfield Wilton 5,000 poll is very similar to their normal 2,000 poll
5,000 poll
Labour 44%
Conservative 23%
Reform UK 12%
Liberal Democrat 11%
Green 5%
Scottish National Party 3%
Other 1%
2,000 poll
Westminster VI (4 February):
Labour 45%
Conservative 24%
Reform UK 12%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Green 4%
Scottish National Party 3%
Other 2%
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 9, 2024 16:47:50 GMT
.yes, you showed yesterday that less passes are being made by men who had covid.. That could be it. If guys are afraid now to go out and get laid, maybe the falling birth rate is because there are fewer accidental pregnancies? |
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Post by graham on Feb 9, 2024 16:49:05 GMT
Inflation as measured by the CPI peaked at circa 11% and is currently at 4%. There are suggestions that ove the next few months it will fall further to 2% before ticking up again over the Summer. The fall in inflation from 11% to 4% does not appear to have boosted Tory polling at all , so it is not obvious that a decline from 4% to circa 2% is likely to make much difference. Consumer confidence doesn't just flip overnight graham it takes time to gather momentum. The people hardest hit over the last few years will be the last to see any improvement unfortunately, but the ones who were worried about their fixed term mortgages coming to an end this year will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Of course some new, as yet unknown, economic shock could be just around the corner for all I know - I'm just extrapolating the trend from the last few months. Those on fixed term mortgages will still see a sharp increase in their repayments - if not quite as sharp as a few months ago. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 16:59:39 GMT
And anyone who mortgaged at 1.18% 3 years ago has saved a huge amount in that time so they can hardy complain. Unless they came to believe that the era of QE and Central Bank created cheap money, was reality. Which many did. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 17:04:27 GMT
We Think
Lab 42% (-3)
🔵 Con 26% (+3)
⚪ Ref 10% (-1)
🟠 LD 10% (+1)
🟢 Green 6% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (NC
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,626
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 9, 2024 17:04:55 GMT
Also worth noting that the Redfield Wilton 5,000 poll is very similar to their normal 2,000 poll 5,000 poll Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% 2,000 poll Westminster VI (4 February): Labour 45% Conservative 24% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 9% Green 4% Scottish National Party 3% Other 2% So 3,000 people wasted their time |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 17:09:32 GMT
CB ''@jimjam Can I join Colin in liking your post and its rather encouraging contents very much.'' You may; although I suspect Colin is liking my posting a poll rather than the contents of the poll :-) Its a done deal now imo jimjam . And it really is time for a change. For everyone-The Tory Party included. And a Starmer government is no greater an uncertainty than any other when you get down to it. They all finish up facing events and conditions they never dreamed of and cannot cope with. If i sound a tad cynical about politicians its because I am right now and wish there was a sign of someone who looks and sounds like a Leader. I fear we are going to need one. Any road up as my grandad used to say , you must surely be feeling more confident now. These particular Tories have been a gift to Starmer haven't they ? Would you hazard a guess on size of the OM ? How do you think Streeting will get on with the BMA-must confess I like him. atb |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,626
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 9, 2024 17:15:24 GMT
For completeness, the local by-election result that hasn't been posted:
Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South - Independent hold
Ind 239 60.4% (+14.3)
Lab 124 31.3% (-11.0)
Grn 33 8.3% (New)
No Conservative as last time
Remarkably dismal turnout levels everywhere, btw. The public are not brimming with enthusiasm about the political process at the moment.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 9, 2024 17:20:21 GMT
colin to domjg “ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain? You dont know anything about how I feel politically at present. But that never stops you deciding . And when it comes to vindictiveness you should read some of domjg,s posts more carefully. I may be dismissive of certain groups and their attitudes, hold my hand up to that but I don't attack individuals in the way you do. I only called you a t* today in response to your attack on me. You've always had a tendency to play the man (or woman) not the ball. You seem to take offence at me being dismissive of members of my own family which is weird as that's kind of my right and you don't know them. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,582
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 17:27:37 GMT
Sunaks released his tax return
Over the previous 5 years he paid 22% of tax on nearly £5m.
This year he pays 23.4% tax on £2.2m
Something is badly wrong with our tax system if people earning millions pay a lower rate of tax than people earning a 50th of that
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 17:28:19 GMT
I may be dismissive of certain groups and their attitudes, hold my hand up to that but I don't attack individuals in the way you do. I only called you a t* today in response to your attack on me. You've always had a tendency to play the man (or woman) not the ball. You seem to take offence at me being dismissive of members of my own family which is weird as that's kind of my right and you don't know them. You can call me what you like old chap. Compared with the Chuckle brothers you are a paragon of civility.  |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 17:43:56 GMT
For completeness, the local by-election result that hasn't been posted: Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South - Independent hold Ind 239 60.4% (+14.3) Lab 124 31.3% (-11.0) Grn 33 8.3% (New) No Conservative as last time Remarkably dismal turnout levels everywhere, btw. The public are not brimming with enthusiasm about the political process at the moment. I know you and I good humouredly pull each others legs about local council by-elections, and I know you hold much greater store by them than I do, but do you think they are a very reliable guide to levels of political enthusiasm across the country? It's perfectly possible that there is much apathy and disillusionment with our politics about, but I wouldn't think turnout in local council by-elections is a key indicator of that. As I've said before when trying to dampen down periodic bouts of wild enthusiasm about the swing in Lower Piddle West, the turnouts are often derisory, awareness is low, there is usually zero campaigning and the candidate list is often an exotic list of eccentrics. Local issues are usually the key motivator to vote, if one ever exists, with national issues virtually non-existent in terms of voting determinants. As Mr Wells used to lecture us, the various political parties usually either over or under perform their national positions in these esoteric contests. I can't think of many reasons to take them very seriously, although I do accept your argument that there may be something to see here if the results are aggregated over a sustained period of time. Even then, I remain in the sceptical camp. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 9, 2024 17:48:18 GMT
Also worth noting that the Redfield Wilton 5,000 poll is very similar to their normal 2,000 poll 5,000 poll Labour 44% Conservative 23% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 11% Green 5% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% 2,000 poll Westminster VI (4 February): Labour 45% Conservative 24% Reform UK 12% Liberal Democrat 9% Green 4% Scottish National Party 3% Other 2% It's not clear whether those polled for the 5000 poll include those polled for the 2000 poll as although the text on the R&W web site says: Between Saturday and Monday this week, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted a special, one-off Westminster Voting Intention poll among a demographically representative sample of 5,000 British voters.
Altogether, our super poll finds Labour holds a 21% advantage over the Conservatives, a result which matches that of our latest regular tracking poll which was conducted (with a smaller sample size) on Sunday last week.
The R&W poll on 29th January had a Labour lead of 23%, so that cannot be the one referred to as "Sunday last week". It seems a bit odd to do a special poll at the same time as their regular tracking poll and not use the data from it. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 17:50:00 GMT
You dont know anything about how I feel politically at present. But that never stops you deciding . And when it comes to vindictiveness you should read some of domjg,s posts more carefully. I may be dismissive of certain groups and their attitudes, hold my hand up to that but I don't attack individuals in the way you do. I only called you a t* today in response to your attack on me. You've always had a tendency to play the man (or woman) not the ball. You seem to take offence at me being dismissive of members of my own family which is weird as that's kind of my right and you don't know them. I'd like to place on record that I don't think Colin is a tat. He looks nor sounds either cheap, nor does he appear to be of poor quality. You come over as a decent fellow, so can I politely ask you to withdraw the defaming description? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 17:51:55 GMT
We Think Lab 42% (-3) 🔵 Con 26% (+3) ⚪ Ref 10% (-1) 🟠 LD 10% (+1) 🟢 Green 6% (+1) 🟡 SNP 3% (NC I don’t. |
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Post by thylacine on Feb 9, 2024 17:57:37 GMT
I may be dismissive of certain groups and their attitudes, hold my hand up to that but I don't attack individuals in the way you do. I only called you a t* today in response to your attack on me. You've always had a tendency to play the man (or woman) not the ball. You seem to take offence at me being dismissive of members of my own family which is weird as that's kind of my right and you don't know them. I'd like to place on record that I don't think Colin is a tat. He looks nor sounds either cheap, nor does he appear to be of poor quality. You come over as a decent fellow, so can I politely ask you to withdraw the defaming description? Is it possible he meant tit? A rather pretty woodland bird that has readily adapted to man-made habitats to become a familiar garden visitor. It can be quite aggressive at a bird table, fighting off smaller tits. |
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 18:00:33 GMT
@jimjam Can I join colin in liking your post and its rather encouraging contents very much. You know nothing about ole colin ’s political preferences. Whereas his peccadillos are common knowledge  |
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 18:07:13 GMT
We Think Lab 42% (-3) 🔵 Con 26% (+3) ⚪ Ref 10% (-1) 🟠 LD 10% (+1) 🟢 Green 6% (+1) 🟡 SNP 3% (NC Told you, that's a 6% swing just since this morning |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 18:18:17 GMT
I'd like to place on record that I don't think Colin is a tat. He looks nor sounds either cheap, nor does he appear to be of poor quality. You come over as a decent fellow, so can I politely ask you to withdraw the defaming description? Is it possible he meant tit? A rather pretty woodland bird that has readily adapted to man-made habitats to become a familiar garden visitor. It can be quite aggressive at a bird table, fighting off smaller tits. Colin last visited my garden in the early days of UKPR after I took him to task over his perpetual criticism of Gordon Brown. Luckily, I had a vicious guard dog at the time, a barely-fed and savage wolfhound of some description, that drove him off. I complained to Anthony Wells at the time about this uncalled for trespass and harassment and, in fairness to whatever old Wellsy did, Colin didn't ever darken my doorstep again. I no longer have my trusty old guard dog though, so have to remain ever vigilant. I have no animal security now beyond a benign old pussycat called Ted. I'm much more vulnerable accordingly and the missus isn't of much use these days in the event of any aggressive incursions. |
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Post by graham on Feb 9, 2024 18:19:28 GMT
We Think Lab 42% (-3) 🔵 Con 26% (+3) ⚪ Ref 10% (-1) 🟠 LD 10% (+1) 🟢 Green 6% (+1) 🟡 SNP 3% (NC Told you, that's a 6% swing just since this morning It is actually a 3% swing which reduces the lead by 6%! |
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