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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 10:29:56 GMT
Just a slightly sobering thought about the suitability of octogenarians holding and/or seeking high political office. At the ages that Trump and Biden have now reached, serial election winners and long -serving Prime Ministers, Wilson and Thatcher would both by now have been in advanced stages of dementia. They may well have had relatively early onset versions of the disease, and neither Trump nor Biden may be suffering anything similar at all, but the chances of them experiencing cognitive decline at their respective ages is very high now I would think. Hence my notion of politicians at their ages undergoing some tests that reassure the people they seek to serve. I don't want to indulge in layman's neurology here so I think these issues should be professionally verified and proved for the avoidance of all doubt and perpetual voodoo speculation. There are loads of examples of famous people in their 80s and 90s who are as sharp as they ever were. (David Attenburgh, Sheila Hancokck, Judy Dench etc. ) I'm unhappy with a narrative that seeds a genrealised acceptance that old means doddery and not on the ball (Alzheimers excepted). I'm not against both Trump and Biden being under scrutiny if they are exhibiting symptoms of not being able to recall facts and figures but we must be really careful not to stereotype old people. We have 3 people at our tea dance aged 95, 91 and 90 and all three are not only good physical dancers but are always smartly and stylishly turned out and as quick to learn new dances and recall old ones as the rest of us. I agree with your point that blanket generalisations about age, and accompanying assumptions on inevitable mental deterioration, are wrong but I was being specific about Trump and Biden and indulging in probabilities and likelihoods rather than certainties. Both are running for the office of US President and both have shown, or are showing, some evidence of declining cognitive facility. Surely those are two very specific and highly concerning factors that suggest particular scrutiny? It's not suggesting at all that there aren't plenty of people in their 80s, 90s and 100s who are as sharp as absolute buttons Biden and Trump may be too. My point is that the agency and jeopardy involved in them being able to prove to be so is rather more pressing and urgent than for a normal 80 year old!!! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 10:33:09 GMT
colin to domjg“ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain?
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Post by domjg on Feb 9, 2024 10:35:36 GMT
There's "fancy a change" as in desperately wanting to see the back of the worst and most destructive govt this country has endured in modern times and replace it with those who possees morals and principles and then there's Barbara's sister's "fancy a change" which I recognised only too well from some I knew and is basically 'lets destroy everything and see what comes out of it because I personally feel protected enough from the outcome' (whether that's true or not) but f* anyone else who isn't. The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there.  "You must feel lonely up there" - Really, really not you patronising t*t. There are a hell of a lot of us. Most of us now in fact. Feeling moral superiority is easy against anyone trying to defend the indefensible, ie this tory govt or those who support them. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 10:38:01 GMT
Evan Davis again again shows how it's done on debt to GDP. ED: 'This is really basic... I'm amazed you don't know that debt is rising' He rightly doesn't let it drop Trott completely out of her depth and not knowing the basics. It also skewers calls for tax cuts while debt to GDP rising LAB would do well to send links to this tweet and the one in neilj 's previous post to all their media-facing personnel as handy aide-memoires for countering accusations about their U-turns and financial probity. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 10:44:19 GMT
Odd result in Crewe but when the Tory candidate is a well-known local figure who runs a family-owned garage which has been in the ward for over 100 years, and who has a very well put-together website - www.crewecentral.org.uk - it's probably not that difficult to swing a few hundred votes his way in a relatively tiny by-election like this.
It probably also helps that he doesn't have 'Conservative' anywhere on his website or social media. I can't see this kind of strategy getting very far for the party in the general election.
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 9, 2024 10:44:25 GMT
Thanks alec , that's a really interesting paper. However I must admit I'm sceptical. The scope and consistency of the claimed results just seem too good to be true given the relatively small sample size and the oblique nature of the data. The paper uses passes per player per game as it basic measure of performance, which across a team is surely more a measure of skill than fitness. Man City are (of course) top in passing, but I doubt it's because they are any fitter. Is number of passes per game a true indicator of physical and mental fitness? - I'm not sure. Surely a better approach would be to focus on fitness and talk to athletes e.g. runners about the effect of covid on their performance and analyse their actual times in races. And compare covid with other respiratory illnesses. A good point, although you cannot use any race because runners train to peak at major championships (or the highest level races for which they qualify). So you would need to use the most important races in which they were beaten (because you only know an athlete has tried their best when they are beaten) and use a similarly-talented athlete who has not had an infection as a control. You would also have to correct for athletes losing training time, so an athlete who lost the same amount of due to a non-infectious injury would also be needed as a control. So doable in principle, but it needs a very careful experimental protocol. |
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 10:51:42 GMT
Techne
Lab 44% (-1)
Cons 24% (+1)
Lib Dems 10% (=)
Reform 10% (=)
Greens 6% (=)
SNP 3% (=)
Others 3% (=)
👥 1639 Surveyed
🗓️ +/- 2nd Feb 2024
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 9, 2024 11:15:26 GMT
Techne Lab 44% (-1) Cons 24% (+1) Lib Dems 10% (=) Reform 10% (=) Greens 6% (=) SNP 3% (=) Others 3% (=) 👥 1639 Surveyed 🗓️ +/- 2nd Feb 2024 Techne: both Labour and Tories bang on average for their five polls this year. YouGov: excluding the MRP poll (12th Dec-4th Jan) Labour 0.2% below average and Tories 0.3% below average for their six polls this year. |
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 11:38:03 GMT
A staggering 10%/412,000 drop in the under 11's by 2028, it's a demographic time bomb, especially with the birth rate continuing to drop
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Post by steve on Feb 9, 2024 11:40:46 GMT
crossbat11"I wonder if it now makes some political sense for Biden and his advisers to consider whether he should agree to undergo some cognitive function tests and then publish the results?" Maybe but I don't think it's Biden's capacity in the moment that's an issue it's his deteriorating memory. The issue the democratic party has at the moment is that the time to change candidate, which they should, has past. The only way Biden is removed now from the ticket is if he voluntarily chooses to. The easiest solution for the Democrats would actually be if Biden and his family accepted the deterioration and Biden resigned, or if the issues associated with his memory are subject to medical intervention he could stand down temporarily , the 25th Amendment provides that the vice president automatically takes over.Biden can select his pick for the new vice president. While vice president Kamala Harris isn't particularly popular there is clearly no issue with her mental capacity.
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 11:41:02 GMT
colin to domjg“ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain? Beware the floating voter reaching across the aisle. Innocent people can get crushed. |
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 11:42:27 GMT
An interesting court case www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-68250071The Green Party discriminated against former deputy leader Dr Shahrar Ali because of his gender critical beliefs, a court has ruled |
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Post by Mark on Feb 9, 2024 11:44:04 GMT
Ok folks, here's an idea I've had: two of us take extreme positions on a political topic, and then gradually make concessions in turn and see how close we end up. It might be better on a separate thread, but I'll start by saying that the state should run absolutely nothing at all. Some one else (just one) then starts from the position that private business of any sort should not be allowed, right the way down to the self-employed. I then concede that the state should run the armed forces. We now need someone to make a concession from the other side. Sort of like a Dutch auction. Any takers? Not sure that would work on here. I can already sense oldnat warming up his keyboard to demand that you define "state" for example. *** ADMIN *** It's certainly an interesting idea, but, one that I don't think would work because the starting points, on both sides, wouldn't really be what the person actually believes. In priciple, I would have no objection to two or more members trying this providing that... (1) It is done in "Issue Specific", rather than the main thread and (2) it in no way breaks, or appears to break, the board rules on hate speech, for example, I would not want to see something such as excusing racism. I know that mercian wasn't thinking along those lines and was merely exploring what could be interesting political theory, I am simply giving some guidance to members should any wish to do this. |
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Post by graham on Feb 9, 2024 12:04:01 GMT
I'm not sure that Starmer's line of 'we abandoned the green policies because the Tories crashed the economy' will stand up in October/November. Government borrowing doesn't mean much to the average voter - inflation and mortgage rates are what worry people, especially in the Tory heartlands. Both are dropping rapidly and house prices have taken off again which will breed consumer confidence - so I think the result will be a lot closer than currently being predicted. On the other hand I think Labour will still win, and it will be much better for their prospects in government if the economy is reasonably good when they take over. Inflation as measured by the CPI peaked at circa 11% and is currently at 4%. There are suggestions that ove the next few months it will fall further to 2% before ticking up again over the Summer. The fall in inflation from 11% to 4% does not appear to have boosted Tory polling at all , so it is not obvious that a decline from 4% to circa 2% is likely to make much difference. |
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Post by barbara on Feb 9, 2024 12:30:40 GMT
A staggering 10%/412,000 drop in the under 11's by 2028, it's a demographic time bomb, especially with the birth rate continuing to drop Or really good news in the long term. |
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Post by moby on Feb 9, 2024 12:32:45 GMT
Important point here from the IFS. The halving of UK Labour's green investment plans means that, other things being equal, they can meet their fiscal rules but only by maintaining the current Tory squeeze on public services budgets: Presumably it also reduces the economic stimulus that would have come the original green investment plan budget. The economic stimulus depends on borrowing to invest on the international markets. Interest rates have gone up to 5% since the original announcement was made. Doing a U turn prior to publishing the manifesto is surely better than persisting with a policy in changed economic circumstances and then being unable to deliver it if elected. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 12:43:36 GMT
I've been pondering this "time for a change" sentiment that electorates inevitably feel eventually after a long time of one particular party being in government. I think there is some truth in the old chestnut, and it may be applying now in some respects, although I think we ought to be careful about applying it lazily now as if it was the major electoral and political factor at play. Here's why I think we ought to apply some caveats. Firstly, over the last fourteen years, we've had five of them with the Tories in coalition and the other nine involving a whole number of extraordinary government reinventions and Prime Ministerial musical chairs. A landslide arrived too only four years ago. This doesn't feel, or certainly shouldn't feel, like the fag end days of a long serving administration Certainly not like 1970, 1997 or 2010. A natural changing of the guard it is not. Secondly, I'm not sure I've encountered such vituperative disdain for the incumbents in all my 50 years or more of involvement in UK politics. The contempt is tangible and can be witnessed whenever groups are assembled to discuss politics and when campaigning on doorsteps too. Sure, there's less than wild enthusiasm for, and endorsement of, the alternative, but the loathing for the incumbents is extraordinary and it seems to be deepening too. This, I think, explains the seeming imperviousness of the polls to events that you think may help a government. It seems as if opinion is absolutely rock solid and hardening. This doesn't feel like understandable weariness and ennui with the incumbents to me. "Thanks lads for all your good efforts on our behalf, but have a rest now. Let's give the others a chance, in fairness". I sensed that sentiment a bit in 2010. Some residual respect for Brown and Labour but a feeling that a chapter was naturally closing. Cameron seemed fresh shiny and new Now it seems instead like something much more than that. I think barbara captured it in her excellent post yesterday. There may be too, ironically, a warning to Starmer. Don't miss a seminal political opportunity here. The thirst for a clean break and a real change may well be a gathering wave that Labour could and should be surfing more than it currently is. It may not come again. Not for a long time. Don't waste a good crisis. |
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Post by moby on Feb 9, 2024 12:53:46 GMT
Lab's ditching of the £28bn pledge From my - admittedly atypical - perspective yesterday was all about the silver lining, which was that Lab gifted some airtime and column inches to a notably diverse coalition of politicians, climate policy people and environmentalists to try to hammer home why action on climate doesn't belong in the 'nice to have, if we can afford it' basket. I made an effort to read/listen to some of the coverage and I think it was easy for voters to get the impression that although Lab has removed the price tag it is keeping the policies - which would be nonsensical and looks less than candid. The alternative interpretation is that the £28bn was only ever an arbitrary figure, a piece of greenwashing designed to hook green-minded voters. The timing of the formal U-turn is also sub-optimal, because Lab has been encouraging voters to blame the Truss-Kwarteng interlude for a lot of the current economic woes, so many people will ask why, if the policy is being dumped on affordability grounds, it wasn't dumped - or at least caveated/scaled down - back in 2022. You make a good point about the dubious credibility and questionable adroitness of Labour's political choreography surrounding the announcement of the dropping of the always slightly mystical £28 billion headline figure to their green investment plan, but it may prove, in the long term, to be sensible political footwork. It is, after all, getting to the bobbing and weaving, ducking and diving stage ahead of an election that may now be only months away. There seemed to be a sort of sympathetic audience on last night's BBC's Question Time to Streeting's slightly torturous, but typically cleverly prosecuted, explanation. His argument was that it was better to moderate the offer now, before people voted rather than after. The argument being that voter distrust was high anyway and politicians over-promising and under delivering had become the lingua franca accepted norm of British politics. Streeting's argument was that Labour would be different and only promise what they knew they could deliver. Empty rhetoric and the poverty of managed expectation? Maybe, but the audience last night seemed to welcome the degree of honesty and realism involved in Labour's revised green investment plan. As CJ might have observed. Streeting didn't go about winning elections without a good dollop of empty rhetoric! Are Labour surfing voter cynicism now rather than being submerged by it? (no more aquatic metaphors for now!) Exactly what I thought after watching QT. The audience were reasonably sympathetic to the U turn taking place before the election as compared to a post election HS2 style climb down. Also anyone who wonders why the U turn didn't happen sooner is failing to take into account the internable processes within the party and the need to square off different people and interest groups, while meantime having to hold the line with a largely hostile media. |
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Post by moby on Feb 9, 2024 12:58:28 GMT
colin to domjg “ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain? Probably hes still smarting from the ignominious fall of Johnson. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 13:01:04 GMT
I've been pondering this "time for a change" sentiment that electorates inevitably feel eventually after a long time of one particular party being in government. I think there is some truth in the old chestnut, and it may be applying now in some respects, although I think we ought to be careful about applying it lazily now as if it was the major electoral and political factor at play. Here's why I think we ought to apply some caveats. Firstly, over the last fourteen years, we've had five of them with the Tories in coalition and the other nine involving a whole number of extraordinary government reinventions and Prime Ministerial musical chairs. A landslide arrived too only four years ago. This doesn't feel, or certainly shouldn't feel, like the fag end days of a long serving administration Certainly not like 1970, 1997 or 2010. A natural changing of the guard it is not. Secondly, I'm not sure I've encountered such vituperative disdain for the incumbents in all my 50 years or more of involvement in UK politics. The contempt is tangible and can be witnessed whenever groups are assembled to discuss politics and when campaigning on doorsteps too. Sure, there's less than wild enthusiasm for, and endorsement of, the alternative, but the loathing for the incumbents is extraordinary and it seems to be deepening too. This, I think, explains the seeming imperviousness of the polls to events that you think may help a government. It seems as if opinion is absolutely rock solid and hardening. This doesn't feel like understandable weariness and ennui with the incumbents to me. "Thanks lads for all your good efforts on our behalf, but have a rest now. Let's give the others a chance, in fairness". I sensed that sentiment a bit in 2010. Some residual respect for Brown and Labour but a feeling that a chapter was naturally closing. Cameron seemed fresh shiny and new Now it seems instead like something much more than that. I think barbara captured it in her excellent post yesterday. There may be too, ironically, a warning to Starmer. Don't miss a seminal political opportunity here. The thirst for a clean break and a real change may well be a gathering wave that Labour could and should be surfing more than it currently is. It may not come again. Not for a long time. Don't waste a good crisis. D’you not just think it’s all a bit "self indulgent " and a casual “fancy a change " sort of feeling though Batty? |
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 13:44:46 GMT
Not sure that would work on here. I can already sense oldnat warming up his keyboard to demand that you define "state" for example. *** ADMIN *** It's certainly an interesting idea, but, one that I don't think would work because the starting points, on both sides, wouldn't really be what the person actually believes. In priciple, I would have no objection to two or more members trying this providing that... (1) It is done in "Issue Specific", rather than the main thread and (2) it in no way breaks, or appears to break, the board rules on hate speech, for example, I would not want to see something such as excusing racism. I know that mercian wasn't thinking along those lines and was merely exploring what could be interesting political theory, I am simply giving some guidance to members should any wish to do this. Thanks Mark. Yes, I just made the initial post here because tucked away in the Issue Specific area it wouldn't have been noticed. I agree that that's where the main discussion should have happened. However as no-one showed any serious interest it won't happen. I just thought that rather than making partisan points it would have been interesting to see how close two opposing opinions could actually get with goodwill on both sides. I actually think that on most subjects there would be a relatively small gap compared to the extreme positions and that greater understanding of different viewpoints would be of benefit to us all. |
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Post by neilj on Feb 9, 2024 14:07:20 GMT
Incredible incompetence by the Government has meant the Home Office is powerless to deport more than 22,000 migrants in the UK... or to let them stay
'A “crazy” contradiction in Rishi Sunak’s flagship small-boats law has left the Home Office powerless to deport or grant asylum to more than 22,000 migrants already in the UK, i can reveal.
At least half of the asylum seekers left in limbo indefinitely will be living in costly hotels likely to be costing the taxpayer more than £1.5m a day.
The situation has been caused by the Illegal Migration Act which requires the Government to “remove” illegal migrants but only applies to those who entered the country from 20 July,
But the same legislation also bans the Government from granting asylum to any migrants who entered the UK illegally “on or after 7 March, 2023”. It has left the Home Office with no practical way of dealing with 22,448 migrants who arrived in the country between those two dates.
A Home Office source called the situation “crazy” and said the department had acknowledged the situation with an internal bar on the processing of asylum applications lodged over that period'
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 14:10:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 14:12:04 GMT
colin to domjg “ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain? You dont know anything about how I feel politically at present. But that never stops you deciding . And when it comes to vindictiveness you should read some of domjg,s posts more carefully. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 14:13:39 GMT
The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. "You must feel lonely up there" - Really, really not you patronising t*t. There are a hell of a lot of us. Most of us now in fact. Feeling moral superiority is easy against anyone trying to defend the indefensible, ie this tory govt or those who support them. I rest my case ! |
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Post by James E on Feb 9, 2024 14:14:41 GMT
As we now have 6 YouGov polls since the start of 2024, it seems like a good time to give some updated averaged cross-breaks. These need to be seen in the context of YG's headline figures showing Labour 24-25 points ahead, so about 6 points higher than the rest of the polling industry, with a particularly strong performance by RefUK at the expense of the Tories. Pollsters such as Survation and Savanta, who do not include Ref in their prompt, have Ref about 4 points lower and the Tories 4 points higher.
London
Lab 54% (+6)
Con 18% (-14)
Swing Con to Lab 10%
South England
Lab 40% (+17)
Con 25% (-30)
LD 13% (-4)
Swing Con to Lab 23%
Midlands
Lab 45% (+12)
Con 27% (-28)
Swing Con to Lab 20%
North England
Lab 55% (+12)
Con 19% (-20)
Swing Con to Lab 16%
Scotland
Lab 36% (+17)
Con 14% (-11)
SNP 32% (-13)
Swing SNP to Lab 15%
Wales
Lab 47% (+6)
Con 20% (-16)
Swing Con to Lab 11%
Remain
Lab 59% (+10)
Con 12% (-7)
Swing Con to Lab 9%
Leave
Lab 26.5% (+12)
Con 37% (-37)
Swing Con to Lab 25%
ABC1 Voters
Lab 49% (+16)
Con 20% (-22)
Swing Con to Lab 19%
C2DE Voters
Lab 40% (+7)
Con 24% (-24)
Swing Con to Lab 16%
The pattern of the Conservatives' losses is consistent and proportionate: their share is roughly halved across all demographic and geographical groups, with the rider that they are doing a little less badly in their weak demographics, such as London, Scotland, Wales and 2016 Remain voters. Wales aside, this probably reflects the lower appeal of Reform UK to 2019 Tory voters within those groups.
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Post by alec on Feb 9, 2024 14:35:27 GMT
neilj (and barbara) - the drop in births is interesting. From 2012 - 2020 the fall in live births average - 1.77% pa, with only one year showing growth (2015/16 at +1.8%). In the three years since 2020 the fall has been -2.49%, with a big rise in 21/22 of +3.36% book-ended by very large falls of -5.41% in both 20/21 and 22/23. It looks like the pandemic saw a step change in the fall. I think it's difficult to draw firm conclusions just yet, as these years were so odd for so many reasons, but 20/21 I think it's pretty clear births fell because of pandemic disruption more than anything else. The following year saw a significant bounce back, which will presumably be delayed pregnancies in part. Then another extremely big fall in 22/23, which is when it gets really interesting. The cost of living crisis must have had something to do with this, as recessions are known to suppress birth rates, but there is also mounting evidence of Covid causing a surprisingly large level of male infertility, even with mild infection. It remains to be seen whether this is a major factor in the figures to date, although I suspect it will become more of a factor over time, as we start going through multiple infections.
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Post by James E on Feb 9, 2024 14:41:44 GMT
There is a wide divergence in Scottish Westminster polling at the moment, with Ipsos showing the SNP 10% and 7% ahead in their two most recent polls, while the most recent YouGov (in the wake of the Rutherglen by-election in October) put Labour ahead 38/32. However, Ipsos's last 4 polls in Scotland have all shown much better figures for the SNP than any other pollster. As I have noted above, YouGov's Scottish cross-breaks for Jan/Feb 2024 are not far from that showing Labour 4 points ahead, suggesting that their 6 point lead was not a total one-off. The difference between Ipsos and YouGov is stark when it comes to predicting seats, as it could shift about 20 seats in either direction. However, there are other pollsters whose full Scottish figures are in the middle ground. An average of the 4 most recent polls we have from R&W, Ipsos, Survation and Norstat (formerly Panelbase), plus those YG cross-break figures gives us: SNP 35% Lab 34% Con 15%. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland |
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Post by jimjam on Feb 9, 2024 15:01:45 GMT
Just out and speaks for itself:
''
@redfieldwilton
Labour leads by 21% in our 5,000 sample poll.
Westminster VI (3-5 February):
Labour 44%
Conservative 23%
Reform UK 12%
Liberal Democrat 11%
Green 5%
Scottish National Party 3%
Other 1%
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti… pic.twitter.com/jhhhEcNfSH
09/02/2024, 15:00''
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 15:10:32 GMT
I'm not sure that Starmer's line of 'we abandoned the green policies because the Tories crashed the economy' will stand up in October/November. Government borrowing doesn't mean much to the average voter - inflation and mortgage rates are what worry people, especially in the Tory heartlands. Both are dropping rapidly and house prices have taken off again which will breed consumer confidence - so I think the result will be a lot closer than currently being predicted. On the other hand I think Labour will still win, and it will be much better for their prospects in government if the economy is reasonably good when they take over. Inflation as measured by the CPI peaked at circa 11% and is currently at 4%. There are suggestions that ove the next few months it will fall further to 2% before ticking up again over the Summer. The fall in inflation from 11% to 4% does not appear to have boosted Tory polling at all , so it is not obvious that a decline from 4% to circa 2% is likely to make much difference. Consumer confidence doesn't just flip overnight graham it takes time to gather momentum. The people hardest hit over the last few years will be the last to see any improvement unfortunately, but the ones who were worried about their fixed term mortgages coming to an end this year will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Of course some new, as yet unknown, economic shock could be just around the corner for all I know - I'm just extrapolating the trend from the last few months. |
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