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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 18:33:44 GMT
@crossbat
“ Colin last visited my garden in the early days of UKPR after I took him to task over his perpetual criticism of Gordon Brown.
Luckily, I had a vicious guard dog at the time, a barely-fed and savage wolfhound of some description, that drove him off.
I complained to Anthony Wells at the time about this uncalled for trespass and harassment and, in fairness to whatever old Wellsy did, Colin didn't ever darken my doorstep again.
I no longer have my trusty old guard dog though, so have to remain ever vigilant.
I have no animal security now beyond a benign old pussycat called Ted.
I'm much more vulnerable accordingly and the missus isn't of much use these days in the event of any aggressive incursions.”
I think you’ve made up the bit about Ted the cat.
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Post by thylacine on Feb 9, 2024 18:49:53 GMT
Is it possible he meant tit? A rather pretty woodland bird that has readily adapted to man-made habitats to become a familiar garden visitor. It can be quite aggressive at a bird table, fighting off smaller tits. Colin last visited my garden in the early days of UKPR after I took him to task over his perpetual criticism of Gordon Brown. Luckily, I had a vicious guard dog at the time, a barely-fed and savage wolfhound of some description, that drove him off. I complained to Anthony Wells at the time about this uncalled for trespass and harassment and, in fairness to whatever old Wellsy did, Colin didn't ever darken my doorstep again. I no longer have my trusty old guard dog though, so have to remain ever vigilant. I have no animal security now beyond a benign old pussycat called Ted. I'm much more vulnerable accordingly and the missus isn't of much use these days in the event of any aggressive incursions. The board is of course frequented by many varieties of tits. I myself would be of the bearded variety. The blue is rather endangered here possibly due to your hell hound beast whereas Great tits would seem to abound! Crofty I hear sports the rather splendid hair piece of the crested tit! PJW living in proximity to the Essex fens a rather rare specimen of Marsh tit. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 9, 2024 18:50:25 GMT
Following on from the Concrete farmer 🚜 we now have 30p Lee lauding " sustainable coal" Because coal is formed by the compression of organic matter Leanderthal concluded it must grow! So all we have to do is wait between 100-300 million years and we'd replace the current crop! And they let these people have unsupervised access to kitchen utensils 🙄 youtu.be/QKpx3mHJb0w?si=Gb5w2RtHOB5KhV5W |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 18:57:43 GMT
Colin last visited my garden in the early days of UKPR after I took him to task over his perpetual criticism of Gordon Brown. Luckily, I had a vicious guard dog at the time, a barely-fed and savage wolfhound of some description, that drove him off. I complained to Anthony Wells at the time about this uncalled for trespass and harassment and, in fairness to whatever old Wellsy did, Colin didn't ever darken my doorstep again. I no longer have my trusty old guard dog though, so have to remain ever vigilant. I have no animal security now beyond a benign old pussycat called Ted. I'm much more vulnerable accordingly and the missus isn't of much use these days in the event of any aggressive incursions. The board is of course frequented by many varieties of tits. I myself would be of the bearded variety. The blue is rather endangered here possibly due to your hell hound beast whereas Great tits would seem to abound! Crofty I hear sports the rather splendid hair piece of the crested tit! PJW living in proximity to the Essex fens a rather rare specimen of Marsh tit. As you rightly say, the proliferation of tits, of all varieties, on this site is very encouraging. We may well be the last redoubt for this endangered species. I think I even spotted the very rare Tortured Tit on here the other day. Some esteemed ornithologists thought it had become extinct, but seemingly not. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 9, 2024 18:58:35 GMT
Remarkably dismal turnout levels everywhere, btw. The public are not brimming with enthusiasm about the political process at the moment. I know you and I good humouredly pull each others legs about local council by-elections, and I know you hold much greater store by them than I do, but do you think they are a very reliable guide to levels of political enthusiasm across the country? It's perfectly possible that there is much apathy and disillusionment with our politics about, but I wouldn't think turnout in local council by-elections is a key indicator of that. As I've said before when trying to dampen down periodic bouts of wild enthusiasm about the swing in Lower Piddle West, the turnouts are often derisory, awareness is low, there is usually zero campaigning and the candidate list is often an exotic list of eccentrics. Local issues are usually the key motivator to vote, if one ever exists, with national issues virtually non-existent in terms of voting determinants. As Mr Wells used to lecture us, the various political parties usually either over or under perform their national positions in these esoteric contests. I can't think of many reasons to take them very seriously, although I do accept your argument that there may be something to see here if the results are aggregated over a sustained period of time. Even then, I remain in the sceptical camp. I have a feeling the turnout at the next GE may well be in c60%. Arguably none of the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem or SNP parties are doing much to inspire anyone at present; even the Greens are in a bit of a mess. In particular a lot of Tory inclined voters may just decide to sit that one out. Time will tell. As to local by-elections, I don't set any store by individual ones at all. For example the Crewe result wasn't much fun, but I am hardly panicking over a result on a 16% turnout. However, when Mercian was looking for his 'Dutch auction' discussion I did wonder if I could persuade him and you to do one on local government by-elections and see if a consensus could be achieved.  |
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Post by thylacine on Feb 9, 2024 18:59:36 GMT
Following on from the Concrete farmer 🚜 we now have 30p Lee lauding " sustainable coal" Because coal is formed by the compression of organic matter Leanderthal concluded it must grow! So all we have to do is wait between 100-300 million years and we'd replace the current crop! And they let these people have unsupervised access to kitchen utensils 🙄 youtu.be/QKpx3mHJb0w?si=Gb5w2RtHOB5KhV5WAh well, and there you have the Coal tit! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 19:09:07 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 19:20:17 GMT
All I could get via that link you provided was brief highlights of the first T20 international between Australia and the Windies. Decent knock from Warner and an entertaining contest, I thought Thanks. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 19:42:18 GMT
All I could get via that link you provided was brief highlights of the first T20 international between Australia and the Windies. Decent knock from Warner and an entertaining contest, I thought Thanks. Try it with a computer-lap top maybe. Nip round to your neighbour ? |
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Post by EmCat on Feb 9, 2024 20:04:53 GMT
Starmer's overiding objective is to gain power and decide what he does with it afterwards. Given ... the Pyong Yang sized polling lead , one wonders why Starmer cannot be more forthcoming about his plans in government. You've stated it yourself - Starmer's objective is to win. As to not being forthcoming about plans, then clearly he is not counting chickens. Looking at the Six Nations rugby last weekend, and the avoidance of assuming things were in the bag could be seen in both the Italy - England and Wales - Scotland matches. In the former, Italy were ahead of England at half time, and yet England turned it around (Italy making a last gasp to make it a narrow, rather than sizeable, defeat). In the latter match, Scotland were "Pyong Yang" levels of points ahead at half time, and nearly threw it away. For the General Election, both teams have just come back on the pitch for the second half, with still much of a polling lead to be retained / lost / reduced |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:10:13 GMT
colin to domjg “ The voice of moral superiority always comes naturally to you doesn't it ? The list of sub-optimal degenerates you seem know grows longer. The whole of England I think according to a recent post. You must feel lonely up there. “ I know you’re upset at the decline of your beloved Tories but you do write a lot of vindictive bollocks at times. Does it ease your pain? You dont know anything about how I feel politically at present. But that never stops you deciding . And when it comes to vindictiveness you should read some of domjg,s posts more carefully. Tut tut colin. You should know by now that only the left are allowed (or even encouraged) to be vindictive. For shame. |
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Post by EmCat on Feb 9, 2024 20:10:29 GMT
the Tory candidate is a well-known local figure who runs a family-owned garage which has been in the ward for over 100 years
It probably also helps that he doesn't have 'Conservative' anywhere on his website or social media. I can't see this kind of strategy getting very far for the party in the general election.
There have been a few, both on here and the original UKPR, who talked about retaining the link between candidates and constituencies. Even though many people are not well-enough informed to vote for the person rather than the party. Campaigning without overtly putting the party name anywhere (other than the legally required small print) would seem to be testing the theory that "most" voters prefer the person over the party. Whether it works is another matter. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 20:18:50 GMT
For the General Election, both teams have just come back on the pitch for the second half, with still much of a polling lead to be retained / lost / reduced I have a feeling that the score aint going to change much and the reds will be cheered home by their season ticket holders . |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 20:26:59 GMT
All I could get via that link you provided was brief highlights of the first T20 international between Australia and the Windies. Decent knock from Warner and an entertaining contest, I thought Thanks. Try it with a computer-lap top maybe. Nip round to your neighbour ? Are you in my garden, again col, cunningly trying to lure me out of my house so you can gain illegal entry? Directing manoeuvres via your state of the art smartphone. My next door neighbour, by the way, is a Tory voter and after a baseball bat duel we had in his garden shortly after the result of the 2015 election was declared, we haven't spoken. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:33:08 GMT
I'm going to play the mercian game here and forward my first extreme policy proposal. Make voting illegal once you get to the age of 60 and drop the voting qualification age to 14. Over to you oh Mercy Man of the Burlesque Bargepole fame! Well obviously reducing the voting age to 18 was gerrymandering by Labour. The value of votes should increase with age up to a certain point and then gradually decline. This would reflect increasing wisdom followed by mental decline. e.g. Age <21 No vote 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.75 votes 61-70 2 votes 71-80 1.75 81-90 1.5 90+ 1 vote  |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:36:30 GMT
Consumer confidence doesn't just flip overnight graham it takes time to gather momentum. The people hardest hit over the last few years will be the last to see any improvement unfortunately, but the ones who were worried about their fixed term mortgages coming to an end this year will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Of course some new, as yet unknown, economic shock could be just around the corner for all I know - I'm just extrapolating the trend from the last few months. Falling inflation is not going to save everyone having to get a new fixed rate mortgage rate this year - there's still plenty of pain to come. Historical UK rates are at www.statista.com/statistics/386301/uk-average-mortgage-interest-rates/ with current fixes somewhere between 5% and 6% depending on term with the BoE rate at 5.25%. The BoE rate is forecast to come down to 4.25% by December 2024, so a 3-year fix might come down from its present value of 5.78% to say 4.78%. If you fixed for three years in September 2021 the average rate was 1.18% so your interest payments will at least quadruple. Ouch. People on 2-year fixes taken at the end of 2022 have already taken most of the pain, but those who fixed earlier in that year may still be facing a doubling in interest. So why don't people go for variable rate mortgages, or can't you get them nowadays? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 9, 2024 20:38:36 GMT
I'm going to play the mercian game here and forward my first extreme policy proposal. Make voting illegal once you get to the age of 60 and drop the voting qualification age to 14. Over to you oh Mercy Man of the Burlesque Bargepole fame! Well obviously reducing the voting age to 18 was gerrymandering by Labour. The value of votes should increase with age up to a certain point and then gradually decline. This would reflect increasing wisdom followed by mental decline. e.g. Age <21 No vote 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.75 votes 61-70 2 votes 71-80 1.75 81-90 1.5 90+ 1 vote You wouldn't happen to be in the 61-70 age bracket would you? 🙂 Btw why do the retired get more votes than the working young? Don't you think things are pretty stacked in their favour already? |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:44:20 GMT
Sunaks released his tax return Over the previous 5 years he paid 22% of tax on nearly £5m. This year he pays 23.4% tax on £2.2m Something is badly wrong with our tax system if people earning millions pay a lower rate of tax than people earning a 50th of that I can't be bothered working out the exact figures, but someone on say £20,000 pa pays 20% on about £8,000, or £1,600, which is 8% of total wage. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2024 20:45:33 GMT
Try it with a computer-lap top maybe. Nip round to your neighbour ? Are you in my garden, again col, cunningly trying to lure me out of my house so you can gain illegal entry? Directing manoeuvres via your state of the art smartphone. My next door neighbour, by the way, is a Tory voter and after a baseball bat duel we had in his garden shortly after the result of the 2015 election was declared, we haven't spoken. .........or you could just Google for NS / Marr & you will be sure to find it. Give it a try. |
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 20:46:20 GMT
Falling inflation is not going to save everyone having to get a new fixed rate mortgage rate this year - there's still plenty of pain to come. Historical UK rates are at www.statista.com/statistics/386301/uk-average-mortgage-interest-rates/ with current fixes somewhere between 5% and 6% depending on term with the BoE rate at 5.25%. The BoE rate is forecast to come down to 4.25% by December 2024, so a 3-year fix might come down from its present value of 5.78% to say 4.78%. If you fixed for three years in September 2021 the average rate was 1.18% so your interest payments will at least quadruple. Ouch. People on 2-year fixes taken at the end of 2022 have already taken most of the pain, but those who fixed earlier in that year may still be facing a doubling in interest. So why don't people go for variable rate mortgages, or can't you get them nowadays? Anyone who has gone for a variable rate mortgage is currently paying around 8.5%! |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:46:42 GMT
We Think Lab 42% (-3) 🔵 Con 26% (+3) ⚪ Ref 10% (-1) 🟠 LD 10% (+1) 🟢 Green 6% (+1) 🟡 SNP 3% (NC I don’t. We noticed |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 9, 2024 20:47:31 GMT
Mercian
Voting age was reduced to 18 in 1969.
The first general election to see its use in 1970 resulted in Ted Heath replacing Harold Wilson.
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 20:50:26 GMT
Sunaks released his tax return Over the previous 5 years he paid 22% of tax on nearly £5m. This year he pays 23.4% tax on £2.2m Something is badly wrong with our tax system if people earning millions pay a lower rate of tax than people earning a 50th of that I can't be bothered working out the exact figures, but someone on say £20,000 pa pays 20% on about £8,000, or £1,600, which is 8% of total wage. I assume he's getting a lot of tax relief due to investments in EIS schemes etc - if these schemes weren't funded by private individuals like Sunak then the government woulf have to put the money in themselves. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:50:56 GMT
I know you and I good humouredly pull each others legs about local council by-elections, and I know you hold much greater store by them than I do, but do you think they are a very reliable guide to levels of political enthusiasm across the country? It's perfectly possible that there is much apathy and disillusionment with our politics about, but I wouldn't think turnout in local council by-elections is a key indicator of that. As I've said before when trying to dampen down periodic bouts of wild enthusiasm about the swing in Lower Piddle West, the turnouts are often derisory, awareness is low, there is usually zero campaigning and the candidate list is often an exotic list of eccentrics. Local issues are usually the key motivator to vote, if one ever exists, with national issues virtually non-existent in terms of voting determinants. As Mr Wells used to lecture us, the various political parties usually either over or under perform their national positions in these esoteric contests. I can't think of many reasons to take them very seriously, although I do accept your argument that there may be something to see here if the results are aggregated over a sustained period of time. Even then, I remain in the sceptical camp. I have a feeling the turnout at the next GE may well be in c60%. Arguably none of the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem or SNP parties are doing much to inspire anyone at present; even the Greens are in a bit of a mess. In particular a lot of Tory inclined voters may just decide to sit that one out. Time will tell. As to local by-elections, I don't set any store by individual ones at all. For example the Crewe result wasn't much fun, but I am hardly panicking over a result on a 16% turnout. However, when Mercian was looking for his 'Dutch auction' discussion I did wonder if I could persuade him and you to do one on local government by-elections and see if a consensus could be achieved. Happy to oblige if someone starts an appropriate thread (so they show some commitment ). |
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Post by johntel on Feb 9, 2024 20:52:37 GMT
I'm going to play the mercian game here and forward my first extreme policy proposal. Make voting illegal once you get to the age of 60 and drop the voting qualification age to 14. Over to you oh Mercy Man of the Burlesque Bargepole fame! Well obviously reducing the voting age to 18 was gerrymandering by Labour. The value of votes should increase with age up to a certain point and then gradually decline. This would reflect increasing wisdom followed by mental decline. e.g. Age <21 No vote 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.75 votes 61-70 2 votes 71-80 1.75 81-90 1.5 90+ 1 vote I would divide my votes like this: Lib Dem 1.25 Labour 0.5 Green 0.25 |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 20:56:19 GMT
Well obviously reducing the voting age to 18 was gerrymandering by Labour. The value of votes should increase with age up to a certain point and then gradually decline. This would reflect increasing wisdom followed by mental decline. e.g. Age <21 No vote 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.75 votes 61-70 2 votes 71-80 1.75 81-90 1.5 90+ 1 vote You wouldn't happen to be in the 61-70 age bracket would you? 🙂 Btw why do the retired get more votes than the working young? Don't you think things are pretty stacked in their favour already? No, the one above that. We're not all selfish. I explained why older peoples' votes should count for more, but it was just in jest in response to crossbat11 anyway. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 9, 2024 21:00:42 GMT
When I got past the You Tube labyrinth of various video clips, and, yes, I really did locate the T20 highlights first before finding the Marr video, I discovered that the content merited some serious thought and comment. I have to say first though, that your introduction to it - " Just when you get used to cautious, cardboard cut out election mascot Starmer, up pops Marr with this" , didn't really encourage me to think that serious thought and debate was in prospect, but I persevered and it was well worth my while. Thanks for bringing the piece to my intention. I don't know if you read my posts very much, but if you do, I think you would have discovered that I'm often saying, far less eloquently probably, what Marr is saying here about Starmer. There is an article of faith involved in thinking that his radicalism will manifest itself much more in government than in opposition but I think Marr's argument for thinking that it will is compelling. Firstly Stammer's backstory is very different from most politicians and it suggests a commitment to public service and a recognition of the role of an enabling state that is heartfelt and sincere. Borne out by what he's done in his career and how he's lived his life too. Secondly, as Marr points out, and I believe too, such is the scale of the task that will face him if and when he becomes Prime Minister, that he will have no choice but to explore radical solutions to our deep-seated social, political and economic problems. To get into power though, he's making a Faustian pact with expediency in order to win the next election. It seems to be working but the devil side of the pact is that it exposes him to charges of emptiness and tediously uninspiring caution and timidity. It would appear, as Marr says, that this approach will endure until he wins power for Labour. He's ruthless and determined in terms of winning that prize. Not for him, but for his party and the country he wants to change, I suspect. I'm in the school of thought, as I think Marr is too, that Starmer is right about this safety first strategy and is judging the political culture of this country correctly. Put another way, he's spotting, and plotting, the only route that has ever existed for Labour to take and to win. Wilson and Blair navigated it many times; very few other Labour leaders ever have. Different political eras have their own idiosyncrasies and there is no identical template; history never repeats itself absolutely. But the yellow brick road involves giving people permission to vote Labour. That's the key That permission comes, I think, not from generating wild enthusiasm, but from reassurance and credibility. Once permission is granted, it's surprising how far you can then run with the ball once in power. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 21:02:12 GMT
So why don't people go for variable rate mortgages, or can't you get them nowadays? Anyone who has gone for a variable rate mortgage is currently paying around 8.5%! Bound to come down soon though. And I've just checked with moneysupermarket, pretending to be a first-time buyer borrowing £230k. Rates are around 5.5%. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 9, 2024 21:02:17 GMT
Well obviously reducing the voting age to 18 was gerrymandering by Labour. The value of votes should increase with age up to a certain point and then gradually decline. This would reflect increasing wisdom followed by mental decline. e.g. Age <21 No vote 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.75 votes 61-70 2 votes 71-80 1.75 81-90 1.5 90+ 1 vote You wouldn't happen to be in the 61-70 age bracket would you? 🙂 Btw why do the retired get more votes than the working young? Don't you think things are pretty stacked in their favour already? If we went down such a route I'd say: <21 1 vote if they actually care enough to turn up 21-30 1 vote 31-40 1.25 votes 41-50 1.5 votes 51-60 1.5 votes 61-70 1.25 votes 71-80 1 vote 81+ No vote on the basis that we're voting for the future That gives youngsters a vote on their future, if they can be arsed, allows for increasing knowledge and sense as you age and for declining mental faculties with further age and that the the aged don't have so much of an interest in the future. At 76 I wouldn't be able to vote in the next GE, if I'm still around. |
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Post by mercian on Feb 9, 2024 21:07:07 GMT
Mercian Voting age was reduced to 18 in 1969. The first general election to see its use in 1970 resulted in Ted Heath replacing Harold Wilson. Still gerrymandering IMO. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of voting by age group. I looked for one but couldn't find it, but I think most people would accept that youth are likely to be more left-wing. |
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