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Post by mercian on Feb 2, 2024 23:51:45 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Feb 3, 2024 0:20:52 GMT
steve
"it was a bung"
If that was your approach when a serving police officer, then it's no wonder that the Met earned such a dreadful reputation!
Fortunately, while Police Scotland have been disgracefully dragging their feet on concluding an investigation that has run for almost 3 years and spending over £1million to investigate a complaint about £600,000 [1], they still have not uncovered any evidence of criminality which would result in submitting a report to the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, so they clearly have more respect for evidence than you. Incidentally, even in England it is an offence to publish material that might affect the outcome of any trial that might result from an investigation, so you should be rather more careful about breaking the law. In Scotland, the courts are more robust in such matters than you may be used to.
Since the campervan was purchased by the SNP for campaigning during Covid, declared in its accounts, and remains in its ownership. who do you suggest that this was a "bung" for, and how was that expected to work?
As someone who is partisan for Scottish independence, though not for any particular party supporting that end (I vote for 2 of them), I am an SNP member as it is the largest indy party and currently most likely to bring about the result I seek. Since I support them financially, it is my money that you are claiming has been fraudulently diverted for the personal gain of alleged criminals. If that has happened, then I will be bloody furious - but there is not a single shred of evidence, so far, that this has occurred. Of course, from your reading of the UK Unionist media, you will have certainty - which would demonstrate your gullibility.
[1] Notably no one has suggested what criminality is involved in a political party spending money raised for a purpose that did not materialise, on other related party aims. From your vast experience of criminality, perhaps you could elucidate?
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Feb 3, 2024 1:07:23 GMT
There was discussion earlier about the use of previous referenda results to weight polling. FON has given the data on the differences in their latest poll as to the effect of applying quotas on that basis.
findoutnow.co.uk/blog/four-point-lead-for-yes-to-scottish-independence/
"With 2014 vote quotas:
Yes – 48.6%
No – 45.2%
Don’t know – 6.2%
Without 2014 vote quotas:
Yes – 48.0%
No – 43.7%
Don’t know – 8.3%
The survey asked 5,313 Scottish adults how they would vote, and how likely they would be to vote, before outputting a representative sample size of 842 based on ONS’s 2021 population estimates for age, gender, Scottish region, social economic group, EU 2016 vote, GE 2019 vote, Indyref 2014 vote (where stated), and turnout likelihood. The past vote quotas were also adjusted for an ageing population, namely increasing the “could not vote” quotas, and decreasing the other quotas accordingly."
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Post by Mark on Feb 3, 2024 2:23:54 GMT
MarkI'm finding the main thread is taking longer and longer to load. I wonder if anyone else is getting this, and if so would a new thread help? The length of the thread will have no bearing on load times as it's divided into individual pages of equal number of posts. Loading fast as always here....I've checked what is being blocked my end to see if Proboards have sneaked extra ads / load onto the page.....and nothing new is showing up. If it persists, let me know and I'll take it to Proboards. That said, a new thread is overdue...I'll start it when the next poll drops. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 5:05:17 GMT
Survation
NEW Scotland Polling
Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP 36% (-1)
LAB 34% (-1)
CON 16% (-1)
LD 8% (+2)
OTH 7% (+2)
F/w 23rd - 25th January. Changes vs. 18th August
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 5:07:03 GMT
Latest labour leads by pollster
25 PeoplePolling
23 Redfield & Wilton
22 Ipsos
22 WeThink
22 Techne
21 YouGov
19 Savanta
17 Survation
15 Opinium
14 Deltapoll
14 More In Common
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neilj
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Posts: 6,499
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 5:23:12 GMT
Not sure how you could describe this as an exclusive, more an ability to read...
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 5:32:26 GMT
This farmer educates Rees-Mogg about the realities of Brexit, not that Rees-Mogg in his ideological bunker is capable of taking it in
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 3, 2024 7:11:10 GMT
(c) 2010. The Lib Dems Propping up the Tories and delivering austerity What exactly is the definition of this conservative austerity policy? It appears to be, reduced effectiveness of state funded services accompanied by increased tax take. That is..kinda....a national disaster. Lots of people unhappy about this, but exactly what did the conservatives do wrong to cause this disaster? How might it have been averted? Some obvious ones...Brexit, covid lockdown. But the roots of the problem go back to that first 2010 parliament under Cameron and Osborn, where the recovery from the 2008 recession which had begun under Brown was terminated by 'austerity'. What con HAVE achieved is a widening wealth gap between rich and poor. The key part of their policy seems to be exactly this, make the wealthy wealthier. They must be doing something right, otherwise their 1/4 or so of the eligble voting population who turn out for them would not be doing so. Some will simply have been misled by propaganda, but some must really be benefitting. The key to their success has been to find a minority coalition still sufficient to beat their disunited opponents. So the 10% gets richer at the expense of the 90%. Its the exact opposite of 'trickle down economics', where everyone supposedly benefits, because its actually 'the prisoners dilemma' where a failure to cooperate and share rsources means the total of benefit becomes smaller, but is concentrated in a few who personally benefit more. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 3, 2024 7:16:43 GMT
"it was a bung"
If that was your approach when a serving police officer, then it's no wonder that the Met earned such a dreadful reputation! "
Actually the Met had a pretty good reputation while I was in it,it all went downhill after I left☺
Regarding the SNP camper as I said identifying physically marking it as an SNP campaign vehicle as was clearly the case with the Labour campervan you posted would have avoided the obvious confusion with what appeared on first site simply a gift for the leaders.
It's also total bollocks that it was used as a campaign vehicle it sat outside the parent's of Peter Murrell's house in their driveway for two years unused and uninsured for two years before being seized by police Scotland in April 23 having been bought by the party in 2021, why was it there ? Why not at an SNP office?
Given that the current leader of the SNP has stated he knew nothing about the ownership of the vehicle and given it's never been used for any SNP related business what do you think the purpose of retaining it might have been?
It's also of course entirely irrelevant what I think but it's evident that this has contributed to the reduction of the popularity of the SNP , which overall I think is a bit of a shame.
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 3, 2024 7:33:31 GMT
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,512
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Post by Danny on Feb 3, 2024 7:38:42 GMT
"it was a bung" If that was your approach when a serving police officer, then it's no wonder that the Met earned such a dreadful reputation! " Actually the Met had a pretty good reputation while I was in it,it all went downhill after I left☺ If anyone sensible was running the met (ok, big if), then they should ensure the armed police on diplomatic protection were actually sensible officers who knew their job. Ultra embarassing if something goes wrong there. This does suggest the group you associated with might not have been the ones shagging corpses, terrorising women, fitting people up or making jokes about royalty behind their backs. Maybe you moved in the wrong circles to tell. Hard to say, but if it was wholly unused for two years then it doesnt sound like anyone else was getting a benefit from it. Rather they had the inconvenience of it parked on their drive, which I can imagine would be even more inconvenient for the party had it been parked on a public street outside their campaign headquarters. It sounds like someone had a great idea for a useful vehicle, but then found out it wsnt so useful and while it might have been a waste of money, no one did anything except try to hide it had been a bad ide to buy it at all. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 3, 2024 8:01:05 GMT
Danny
I would ask that you would remove the first part of your last post, it implies that I might have had knowledge of the behaviour you mention which I find gratuitously offensive.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2024 8:34:07 GMT
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Post by barbara on Feb 3, 2024 8:36:35 GMT
Latest poll: Number of people agreeing to meet in Nottingham - 1 Others - 0 I missed earlier posts about this, are we trying to get a meeting of posters together? If so I would recommend Durham. Durham's great for me - and on the East Coast MAIN Line too for all the foreigners from down south. And handy for Peter Bell and Alec too. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 8:47:37 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 3, 2024 8:55:41 GMT
Looking up the history of the metropolitain police on wikipedia i notice that while it might have a poor reputation now, it was a lot worse in the past.
"On 28 June 1830, Constable Joseph Grantham became the first member of the force to be killed in the line of duty, an incident described by the Coroner's Inquest as "justifiable homicide".[17] Other indications of the Constabulary's unpopularity of the time, were such nicknames as 'Raw Lobsters', 'Blue Devils' and 'Peel's Bloody Gang'. Officers were physically assaulted, others impaled, blinded, and on one occasion held down while a vehicle was driven over them. "
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 3, 2024 8:58:06 GMT
Danny I would ask that you would remove the first part of your last post, it implies that I might have had knowledge of the behaviour you mention which I find gratuitously offensive. Sorry, I dont see what bit you find offensive? I thought I said based on what you have told us about your career, the officers you worked with were likely to be the most respectable ones? There is now public evidence that some police officers were aware of or practiced the behaviours I described. Was it the 'dont know what else you did in your career'? Wasnt meant to imply anything except absence of knowledge. The other thing you mentioned about yourself was race. Dont know exactly when you served, but I suspect this would have led to other officers excluding you from various shady activities because they didnt trust your background. Incidentally, you may not be interested in what they are now calling 'Urban fantasy' fiction, but there is a series of books starting with 'Rivers of London' by Ben Aaronovitch, which give what feels like an insiders view on modern police behaviour. There is also a standup comic ex police officer who occasionaly does satirical case studies in half hour light entertainment slots on R4. The sort of stuff police get up to, which is fit to broadcast. Anyway, Aaronovitch's hero is a new mixed race police recruit, who by chance becomes the first new appointee to the metropolitan police section handling 'weird bollocks', or magical crime (since this is fantasy), for 50 years. His boss and only other member of that section is a really patrician white guy who seems to be about 110 and still going strong looking half that, but time for an apprentice. I suspect Aaronovitch might have found it amusing that a mixed race guy ends up to be the first recruit to learn magic. I wonder if something similar might have happened to yourself? In the books, Peter was anticipating being passed over for any interesting appointments until he stumbled into the one he did. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 3, 2024 8:59:06 GMT
Not sure how you could describe this as an exclusive, more an ability to read... If there really are any Conservatives comforting themselves with 1992 then they are fools. The big Labour leads in the 1987-92 parliament were mid-term and racked up against Thatcher. As soon as Major replaced her they vanished and the polls were close for nearly two years before the election. The graph here amply illustrates this. Close polls translate into the government being re-elected; the current position is radically different. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 9:03:54 GMT
pjw1961Agree and these tweets hammer the point home
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Feb 3, 2024 9:13:18 GMT
Not sure how you could describe this as an exclusive, more an ability to read... If there really are any Conservatives comforting themselves with 1992 then they are fools. The big Labour leads in the 1987-92 parliament were mid-term and racked up against Thatcher. As soon as Major replaced her they vanished and the polls were close for nearly two years before the election. The graph here amply illustrates this. Close polls translate into the government being re-elected; the current position is radically different. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election Major also ended up presiding over a period of recovering economy. Sunak will be hoping for some of this, but I also think this is one reason he persists with the unsustainable drive down on things like doctors pay. He is seeking to make the government accounts for his final year look as good as possible, even if its only by deferring all expenditure to 2025. Its a fundamental tenet of conservative dogma that if you reduce peoples income, they will emigrate. (ie they say increased taxes forces the rich to leave the UK). The same must apply if you pay doctors something now approaching 2/3 of salaries they can get elsewhere in the world. So really this low pay might sound high by normal standards but its a guarantee of running down Uk medical care. In reality of course, people do not simply emigrate because of such things, its also about where you want to live. We have not had the national conversation about what level of funding we want to provide to the NHS, and who we will chose not to treat and leave to die. This rather contrasts to claims during the pandemic that money was no object in saving lives. A cynical lie. Perhaps true that money is not so much of an object in buying popularity? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 3, 2024 9:37:04 GMT
Not sure how you could describe this as an exclusive, more an ability to read... If there really are any Conservatives comforting themselves with 1992 then they are fools. The big Labour leads in the 1987-92 parliament were mid-term and racked up against Thatcher. As soon as Major replaced her they vanished and the polls were close for nearly two years before the election. The graph here amply illustrates this. Close polls translate into the government being re-elected; the current position is radically different. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_electionVery true, pj. I think the impression of some extraordinary Tory comeback on polling day in 1992 arose from a few isolated/maverick polls showing Labour ahead during the campaign. Legend has it that the eventual winners of an election always have some sort of mid-campaign "Black Tuesday"where a couple of polls indicate a tightening, or even an opposition lead. Usually Sunny Thursday follows! Polling methodology and accuracy has improved greatly since those days too. It suited Major to play the plucky underdog in that campaign but, as Kinnock admitted in a recent interview, Labour were never remotely in contention to win that election. He knew that, as did I while campaigning in Redditch. Never a snowball in hell's chance of Labour winning that one. Voters genuinely thought that they already had a new government and they preferred Major to lead it rather than Kinnock. That said, and in fairness to Kinnock, whilst Labour lost the popular vote by a significant margin in 1992, they did reduce the Tory majority and, combined with 1987, a small electoral bridgehead for Labour had been established following the ruination of 1983. Blair stormed the ramparts from it some five years later. EDIT. Does anyone remember the famous Guardian mid- campaign headline in 2015; "The Day the Polls Turned!". Labour took the lead in a couple of polls. The polls turned the other way a few days later! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Feb 3, 2024 9:39:58 GMT
Not sure they are getting it...
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Post by shevii on Feb 3, 2024 9:44:54 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,606
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Post by pjw1961 on Feb 3, 2024 10:25:06 GMT
EDIT. Does anyone remember the famous Guardian mid- campaign headline in 2015; "The Day the Polls Turned!". Labour took the lead in a couple of polls. The polls turned the other way a few days later! I won't bore everyone with the details but when I was going through the polling from 1997 to date for the base line on my monthly opposition lead exercise I arrived at the conclusion that the polling from about 2013-2015 was exceptionally dodgy and consistently overestimated Labour. Generally in the later part of that parliament the polls were very close with Labour a few points ahead. I think in reality the Conservatives were actually leading throughout that period. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2024 10:41:40 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 3, 2024 11:17:58 GMT
Anoosh Chakelian " The quiet radicalism of ITV" in New Statesman. I tend not to watch TV news, mainly because I've become disenchanted with the BBC, but here's a good reason for watching ITV News. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 3, 2024 11:19:58 GMT
EDIT. Does anyone remember the famous Guardian mid- campaign headline in 2015; "The Day the Polls Turned!". Labour took the lead in a couple of polls. The polls turned the other way a few days later! I won't bore everyone with the details but when I was going through the polling from 1997 to date for the base line on my monthly opposition lead exercise I arrived at the conclusion that the polling from about 2013-2015 was exceptionally dodgy and consistently overestimated Labour. Generally in the later part of that parliament the polls were very close with Labour a few points ahead. I think in reality the Conservatives were actually leading throughout that period. You and JamesE are my go-to UKPR pollsters. Well, Graham too when he confines himself to Scottish polling! 😉🥴🤣 |
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Post by crossbat11 on Feb 3, 2024 11:25:08 GMT
Anoosh Chakelian " The quiet radicalism of ITV" in New Statesman. I tend not to watch TV news, mainly because I've become disenchanted with the BBC, but here's a good reason for watching ITV News. There are some very good political reporters and journalists working for ITN and ITV. And they've gifted Martin Lewis to the world too!! I watch ITV instead of the flaccid blancmange that the BBC has now become, certainly in terms of news and current affairs. I even forgive them the royal sycophant Tom Bradby!! At times. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Feb 3, 2024 12:16:26 GMT
" Tories privately war-gaming for back to back general elections amid growing belief party will not win outright come polling day" Did they come to this conclusion after a night out with Michael Gove Attachment Deleted |
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