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Post by mercian on Jan 25, 2024 20:25:57 GMT
Since it seems no one else is going to support the crusty old general I'll offer my heavily qualified support, although what I have in mind is a universal citizen or national service. The general, from his vantage point on the right of the political spectrum, is thinking about how the UK can cope with geopolitical threats over the coming decades, whereas I'm taking an egalitarian perspective and thinking more about the social contract and the threadbare fabric of society. Let's start with a couple of arguments against a voluntary army: 1. It's not voluntary, in the strict sense. This is clearest if you look at the US. University education in the US is frighteningly expensive and completely out of reach of lots of young people because of that. Their only chance of getting a degree and getting on in life is to get the armed forces to pay - and in return the armed forces will expect them to do s several-years stint as cannon fodder. An army of people (disproportionately black) who're risking their lives so that they can finish their education isn't a volunteer army. Things aren't yet quite that bad in the UK, but an awful lot of people sign up because it's their last or best chance. Some sign up early on, having taken a look at what awaits kids who don't have the potential to go to university, some after flirting with unemployment, crime or drugs, because they realise the next stop is likely to be prison or a life on the dole. That's not much of a choice either. 2. If service is compulsory then everyone has skin in the game when the armed forces are deployed, which might make voters and governments think more carefully about military interventions and lead to better decisions. We may not like what the Israeli armed forces are doing, but every Jewish Israeli family will have a son or daughter, brother or sister, nephew or niece in the firing line and Israeli citizens will hold their government to account for how and why those lives are being risked at the ballot box. I don't think it's coincidence that the most militaristic segment of Israeli society is the ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have an (increasingly controversial) exemption from military service. The first highlighted bit - 'twas ever thus - see Wellington's comments on his men. On the second bit, I bet that any conscription law that came in would have exemption clauses that just happened to allow important politicians' sons not to go.
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Post by mercian on Jan 25, 2024 20:28:23 GMT
mercian “ …. saying he'd catch me if I jumped off a wall and then moving away when I did.” That explains a lot. That may sound a bit cruel and vindictive but I promise that is not intended. That is not the sort of thing any parent should do. I think mercian was adopting an old Jewish joke, and it should not be taken literally! Like much Jewish humour (often mirrored in other minority communities) it is self-deprecatory and designed to show that the group aren't really a threat to the dominant people. No. It happened. Enjoy your Burns night. 👍
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neilj
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Posts: 6,080
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Post by neilj on Jan 25, 2024 20:40:59 GMT
The controversial Yougov poll showing the tories would do well against Starmer under a new leader is a lesson in how not to phrase a poll question. Or alternatively how to ask a question to get the answer you want
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 25, 2024 21:00:58 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 25, 2024 21:11:11 GMT
Since there is an outbreak of discussion about "Haggis, Neeps and Tatties", whatever they may be, I should like to point out that Essex has its own disgusting delicacy - the jellied eel, served with pie and mash of course. Until recently obtainable in Braintree at the CM7 Cafe in Sandpit Lane, although sadly they now seem to have drifted into more modern fast food. If the the photo in this Wikipedia article doesn't set your mouth watering I can't imagine what's the matter with you. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jellied_eels
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Post by athena on Jan 25, 2024 21:34:18 GMT
I bet that any conscription law that came in would have exemption clauses that just happened to allow important politicians' sons not to go. Regrettably your cynicism is probably warranted, at least to the extent that it's hard to see the offspring of the rich and powerful landing up in a cannon fodder role (remember that I'm not advocating conscription; under my scheme everyone would have a choice of military or civil service). What I would say, however, is that in a society where a very high proportion of people do some sort of national service, there are severe disadvantages to opting out, starting with the social disapproval, missed opportunities to develop connections that are useful afterwards and the awkward gap on your cv that every employer asks you about. Rather than trying to dodge their service (there would have to be exemptions for people with severe physical or intellectual impairments or severe, chronic mental illness), future politicians would be trying to secure a role that would look good on election leaflets. Others would be hoping to land a placement with military intelligence (thus making themselves very attractive to many tech companies afterwards). People would worry about optimal timing and how to maximise their chance of being allocated an appealing role, not whether to try and secure a dodgy psychosis exemption.
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Post by EmCat on Jan 25, 2024 21:36:02 GMT
The largest NATO exercise since the eighties, Steadfast Defender apparently begins this week. Should hopefully make for some interesting movements on Flightradar24.com. There's in the last few weeks been a large amount of military movement (obviously FR only shows aircraft with transponders turned on) both fighters (Typhoon Eurofighters, US F-15/16s) and tankers over the eastern UK and North Sea where the Russians like to try to provoke with long range bombers. Currently three large Russian govt IL-96s heading from Moscow to Kaliningrad via the gulf of Finland for anyone else as sad as me when it comes to planes.. And now heading back from Kaliningrad (or at least some going to St Petersburg) Il-96 and a couple of Tu-214, all of the Special Flight Squadron
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Post by Mark on Jan 25, 2024 21:40:02 GMT
Mark We appear to have exceeded our attachment limit hands up for my contribution but those giant pictures of Nick Clegg that Mr Jones posts might play a role! *** ADMIN *** I have deleted some older attachments to make room, so you can now post attachments again. We currently have around 15MB of space, which should keep us going for a while. As said before, I'd rather not do this, but, the only alternative would be to ask for money/donations, which is a road I am not willing to go down. So, what's gone? The bulk of what's been deleted are attachments from 2022 main polling threads. There were some sizeable attachments in there, so I have concentrated on those, thus, being able to leave the majority of attachments intact. A few very big ones have gone from polling threads from early 2023, but, most are older than that. I have left anything posted in the picture threads alone. A fair chunk of what has gone were "png" files which tend to be larger than the standard "jpg" files. I will ask that such files (and sizeable files generally) be posted sparingly. Also worth mentioning that I have autoplay on any animations (as well as videos) blcked/turned off in my Firefox, so, cannot immediately see if someone posts an animation, so, again, I ask for your co-operation in posting such things sparingly.
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Post by athena on Jan 25, 2024 21:49:27 GMT
pjw1961 Possibly the cafe simply can't get eels any more. They're very rare and you're not supposed to be eating them, jellied or otherwise. The Marine Stewardship Council says 'European eel is a critically endangered species, and zero catch is recommended. It is therefore a Fish to Avoid. There is no sustainable source of this species, even if certifications are in place.'
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Post by peterbell on Jan 25, 2024 22:22:00 GMT
So much for the benefits of Brexit.
Free trade talks with Canada break down meaning that Canada will now impose taxes on the import of British cheeses and cars. There had been a carry over of the European deal with Canada but with the addition of a time limit. That time limit is up but there is no agreement for a temporary or permanent extension.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 25, 2024 22:27:00 GMT
The largest NATO exercise since the eighties, Steadfast Defender apparently begins this week. Should hopefully make for some interesting movements on Flightradar24.com. There's in the last few weeks been a large amount of military movement (obviously FR only shows aircraft with transponders turned on) both fighters (Typhoon Eurofighters, US F-15/16s) and tankers over the eastern UK and North Sea where the Russians like to try to provoke with long range bombers. Currently three large Russian govt IL-96s heading from Moscow to Kaliningrad via the gulf of Finland for anyone else as sad as me when it comes to planes.. And now heading back from Kaliningrad (or at least some going to St Petersburg) Il-96 and a couple of Tu-214, all of the Special Flight Squadron yes, noticed that too, it's not just me then! It's not usual, as if they were picking up lots of personnel from Kaliningrad and taking them back to Moscow, St Petersburg.
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Post by Mark on Jan 25, 2024 22:31:25 GMT
Re-the Tory score of just 9% in 18-25 year olds (and not much more than that in the 26-49 age group).
I don't know, but, suspect that is historically low for one of the 2 major parties.
I have posted before about the younger cohort being socially much more liberal / less conservative than their older peers and much less swayed by the right wing "culture wars", but, I think a much wider - and more wide ranging poll is in order given the level of antipathy to a major party.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 25, 2024 22:35:42 GMT
Since there is an outbreak of discussion about "Haggis, Neeps and Tatties", whatever they may be, I should like to point out that Essex has its own disgusting delicacy - the jellied eel, served with pie and mash of course. Until recently obtainable in Braintree at the CM7 Cafe in Sandpit Lane, although sadly they now seem to have drifted into more modern fast food. If the the photo in this Wikipedia article doesn't set your mouth watering I can't imagine what's the matter with you. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jellied_eelsWot, no liquor!!?? Bah!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 25, 2024 22:36:41 GMT
pjw1961 Possibly the cafe simply can't get eels any more. They're very rare and you're not supposed to be eating them, jellied or otherwise. The Marine Stewardship Council says 'European eel is a critically endangered species, and zero catch is recommended. It is therefore a Fish to Avoid. There is no sustainable source of this species, even if certifications are in place.' I've heard the Haggis is endangered in the wild, and of course Haggis farming is a cruel and unnatural practice prevent the poor Haggis roaming its natural moorland habitat. That doesn't seem to stop them being culled and eaten in huge qualities at this time of year.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 25, 2024 22:38:33 GMT
Since there is an outbreak of discussion about "Haggis, Neeps and Tatties", whatever they may be, I should like to point out that Essex has its own disgusting delicacy - the jellied eel, served with pie and mash of course. Until recently obtainable in Braintree at the CM7 Cafe in Sandpit Lane, although sadly they now seem to have drifted into more modern fast food. If the the photo in this Wikipedia article doesn't set your mouth watering I can't imagine what's the matter with you. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jellied_eelsOne of our little family traditions when I was a child was to go Racing over the Christmas holiday period. Usually either Boxing Day or News Year Day, the choice depending usually on which day the Villa were playing. The local courses that tended to have meetings on these days back then were Wolverhampton, Chepstow and Warwick. I recall attending a meeting at Wolverhampton, probably circa 1965, where a number of catering outlets were selling jellied eels. I was morbidly fascinated by not only the name but the sight of the dish itself too. An exotic dish for a West Midlander like me. Not sure about the pie and mash though, but that might have been included. This delicacy obviously travelled from it's Essex home in those days. Black Country racegoers amongst its aficionados obviously.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 25, 2024 22:42:49 GMT
Re-the Tory score of just 9% in 18-25 year olds (and not much more than that in the 26-49 age group). I don't know, but, suspect that is historically low for one of the 2 major parties. I have posted before about the younger cohort being socially much more liberal / less conservative than their older peers and much less swayed by the right wing "culture wars", but, I think a much wider - and more wide ranging poll is in order given the level of antipathy to a major party. Quite a turnaround too within my lifetime. A majority of the 18-25 age group voted for Thatcher in 1979 and 1983! It wasn't ever thus in other words.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 25, 2024 22:46:29 GMT
Since there is an outbreak of discussion about "Haggis, Neeps and Tatties", whatever they may be, I should like to point out that Essex has its own disgusting delicacy - the jellied eel, served with pie and mash of course. Until recently obtainable in Braintree at the CM7 Cafe in Sandpit Lane, although sadly they now seem to have drifted into more modern fast food. If the the photo in this Wikipedia article doesn't set your mouth watering I can't imagine what's the matter with you. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jellied_eelsWot, no liquor!!?? Bah! May I recommend this instead (especially to the poster who claimed to be descended from Bishop Ridley) bishopnick.com/
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 25, 2024 23:14:30 GMT
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steve
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Posts: 12,333
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Post by steve on Jan 25, 2024 23:17:12 GMT
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Post by mark61 on Jan 25, 2024 23:46:01 GMT
Re Athena's plan for a type of civic national service, I can't see the young being Overjoyed with the Oldsters further adding to their burden! Maybe we could start wit the over 65's doing Community service in return for their Pension and free health care!
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 25, 2024 23:55:17 GMT
Re-the Tory score of just 9% in 18-25 year olds (and not much more than that in the 26-49 age group). I don't know, but, suspect that is historically low for one of the 2 major parties. I have posted before about the younger cohort being socially much more liberal / less conservative than their older peers and much less swayed by the right wing "culture wars", but, I think a much wider - and more wide ranging poll is in order given the level of antipathy to a major party. Quite a turnaround too within my lifetime. A majority of the 18-25 age group voted for Thatcher in 1979 and 1983! It wasn't ever thus in other words. 1. The proportion of people voting Tory & Labour among the younger age groups was roughly similar until 1992. The shift to Labour began in 1997. The next v big shift occurred in 2015, aided by the fact that the Lib-Dems loss of voters (to Labour) was greatest among young voters. The ratio of Labour:Tory voters remained at 3:1 among the younger groups in '17 & '19. The most dramatic shifts are of surprisingly recent origin (as is the absolute tendency of older voters to vote Tory). This is all no doubt reinforced by Brexit. 2. The young turnout rate was almost as high as that of the older groups until the 70s. The gap in turnout between the youngest & oldest groups of voters in '19 was 50% to 85%. 3. The turnout of the young in Continental elections is said to ne much higher than in UK & comparable with older age groups in their respective governments. The explanation is principally that the young are most turned off by the fact that voting in the majority of seats has no effect on outcomes. 4. Perhaps if one of the parties adopted athena s scheme of compulsory national service for those <30 turnout might improve. I am always suspicious of policies by which one group determines that other people should be burdened, safe in the knowledge they won't be affected! (On the other hand people sometimes support progressive things -- eg., adoption by gay people -- knowing that such arrangements lie outside the range of their experience.) I would give the vote to 16-18s - no ref just a act -- as it would benefit Labour & counter the Tory gerrymandering with voter ID.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 26, 2024 0:09:57 GMT
Re Athena's plan for a type of civic national service, I can't see the young being Overjoyed with the Oldsters further adding to their burden! Maybe we could start wit the over 65's doing Community service in return for their Pension and free health care! Tho to be fair old people do a lot of unpaid child care. I just don't think they would react well if the young determined they should do compulsory pram-pushing to duck ponds at least 4 hours a week.
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Post by bardin1 on Jan 26, 2024 0:16:43 GMT
Re Athena's plan for a type of civic national service, I can't see the young being Overjoyed with the Oldsters further adding to their burden! Maybe we could start wit the over 65's doing Community service in return for their Pension and free health care! You've lost my vote, Mark
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Post by mercian on Jan 26, 2024 0:29:45 GMT
I would give the vote to 16-18s - no ref just a act -- as it would benefit Labour & counter the Tory gerrymandering with voter ID. 1) I know that I would be concerned if my grandsons were conscripted. 2) If you would lower the voting age because it would benefit Labour isn't that a form of gerrymandering in itself? I don't see why voter id is. On the contrary it will prevent some election fraud, though not alas for postal votes.
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Post by isa on Jan 26, 2024 0:33:30 GMT
Happened to catch most of Question Time this evening from Gillingham, Kent. LAB in the Blair years, but CON by 15,000 now. A plurality of the audience apparently voted Tory last time around.
The Tory panellist, Alex Burghart MP, did not endear himself to those watching, still, after 14 years, blaming LAB for problems, and once again rolling out the 'LAB has no plan' mantra which has clearly been emailed to every CON MP. His contributions were mainly met with either stony silence, and I mean silence, or just plain laughter.
If I were standing for CON in Gillingham and Rainham later this year, I think I'd be urgently considering a career change on the strength of audience opinion here this evening.
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,122
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Post by oldnat on Jan 26, 2024 0:41:00 GMT
pjw1961 Possibly the cafe simply can't get eels any more. They're very rare and you're not supposed to be eating them, jellied or otherwise. The Marine Stewardship Council says 'European eel is a critically endangered species, and zero catch is recommended. It is therefore a Fish to Avoid. There is no sustainable source of this species, even if certifications are in place.' Surely, the nativist population of Essex would shun European eels. English eels or none!
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Post by isa on Jan 26, 2024 0:49:50 GMT
I would give the vote to 16-18s - no ref just a act -- as it would benefit Labour & counter the Tory gerrymandering with voter ID. 1) I know that I would be concerned if my grandsons were conscripted. 2) If you would lower the voting age because it would benefit Labour isn't that a form of gerrymandering in itself? I don't see why voter id is. On the contrary it will prevent some election fraud, though not alas for postal votes.Your concern over postal vote fraud may be a tad overstated.
Source: Electoral Commission
There is also considerable currency given to the threat posed to the integrity of the electoral system by postal voting. However, high-profile convictions such as the 2005 Birmingham case[4] are simply not representative. Since 1998, Electoral Commission records show there have been only nine convictions for postal vote fraud – a rate of less than one every two years.[5] More than half of all reported cases were about campaigning offences. Most of these related to: campaigners not including details about the printer, promotor or publisher on election material – an ‘imprint’. someone making false statements about the personal character or conduct of a candidate.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 26, 2024 0:59:32 GMT
[quoomte source="/post/117345/thread" timestamp="1706226917" author=" robbiealive"]I would give the vote to 16-18s - no ref just a act -- as it would benefit Labour & counter the Tory gerrymandering with voter ID. 1) I know that I would be concerned if my grandsons were conscripted. 2) If you would lower the voting age because it would benefit Labour isn't that a form of gerrymandering in itself? I don't see why voter id is. On the contrary it will prevent some election fraud, though not alas for postal votes.[/quote] 1. There are no election frauds at polling stations to justify voter ID. End of story. 2. In every European country you can think of it is compulsory for those of voting age to have photo ID. It is a seamless process for people to use such ID when voting. In this country you may have noticed we don't have ID cards: hence requiring 2-3 mill people who don't have foto ID to produce such at voting stations is discriminatory. 3. The Tories know this and it seems a reasonable inference to conclude that they wish to restrict the voting of those persons less likely to vote Tory. But thank you for yr inexhaustible capacity to voice weary, unevidenced, and discredited ideas.
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Post by isa on Jan 26, 2024 1:32:19 GMT
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,080
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Post by neilj on Jan 26, 2024 6:13:58 GMT
For eor and others interested in polling in the US an interesting if long thread on the accuracy of different US pollsters The current top pollsters are the New York Times/Siena College poll on 3.0, although the top few are very close At the other end of the scale Rasmussen, which give some of the biggest Trump leads are less accurate at 1.9
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