Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 21, 2024 9:49:55 GMT
Here's an interesting paper from 2017 discussing the kind of pathogens humanity needs to be most wary of, and the intro says - "Increasingly, the pathogens that pose the greatest threats to humans are those that evolve to escape prior immunity and pharmaceutical interventions. In response, we need to employ evolutionary thinking to manage infectious disease." Obviously, it was of no concern to us whether pathogens could escape pharmaceutical intervention before the existence of pharmaceuticals, and the more we come to rely upon pharmaceuticals the more it matters. If you choose to try to contain covid by crippling lockdowns while you wait for a pharmaceutical vaccine, then it matters whether those vaccines actually work. And they turned out way below promises. However in general this is still nonsense because the arms race between pathogens and hosts has been going on since there was life on earth. Most antibiotics werent created by us but discovered as already existing defences something or other had already devised. What, 10% of 20-44 year olds died last year? That means they will all be gone in ten years! Some mistake, surely? Did you mean there was a tiny uptick in the number dying, because actually not many do die normally? How about an alternative suggestion? I posted 2000 extra people died in December because they had to wait over 12 hours for treatment. These would have been all the sorts of people who end up in A&E, so presumably including 20-44 year olds who suffer accidents the same as any other age. Though that might be a group more than averagely prone to smashing their car into something at very high speed. So it could be the NHS funding crisis is disproportionately affecting young people who get taken to A&E? Its a reminder you are still trying to justify lockdown by trying to hype long term effects, because the short term effects ultimately cannot justify what was done in terms of lockdowns. It justs didnt kill enough people and never could have killed enough people, and thats even more true if you use the QUALY measure of life years lost rather than numbers dying. You are right it does more good to save a 20 year old than an 80 year old, so actually covid lockdowns aimed at saving 80 year olds at the expense of letting 20 year old accident victims die in A&E is especially stupid.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 21, 2024 10:04:11 GMT
A few days back in response to a lament from Graham on former industrial areas voting Tory, I offered the opinion that Labour should try harder at understanding and offering something to the ex-Labour voters in the 'red wall' because they have had a rough deal in the last 45 years and was promptly accused by three posters of "excusing racists". So I am producing this extract from the Guardian's piece on Ashfield that makes my point perhaps better than I managed to: "It doesn’t take long to discover why many here feel abandoned. While terms like “red wall seat” and “left-behind town” have become a political shorthand for these former industrial heartlands, it is easy to detect a deeply held pride in the area’s past that has been bruised over decades. That civic pride is personified in Kirkby by Christine Kidger, 75, whose free labour has kept the town’s heritage centre (a shop front just off the high street) going for years. She previously championed a commemorative mosaic near the site of Summit Colliery, Kirkby, which has since become a business park. “I left school when I was 15,” she explained. “I could have given a job up on the Friday and I could’ve had a new job for the Monday. When you’ve got your pit, you’ve got your community, haven’t you? The pit closed in ’69. Then of course all the factories went. A lot of the shops are gone. All we’ve got really now is takeaways and barbers and nail places. It’s sad when you think about how it was and now.” It is a lament instantly recognised by Gloria De Piero, who represented the area for Labour until 2019. “If you’d gone back 30 or 40 years, all the men would have worked on the pits and the women would have worked in textiles. There were good, well-paid jobs. Now, people are working, but not paid very well. There’s a great community spirit. People care about law and order, border controls. But they’re typically more left wing economically. They know that they’re getting a raw deal.”" www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/20/i-dont-think-theyre-bothered-about-people-up-here-voters-in-lee-andersons-ashfield-turning-their-back-on-all-politiciansI'm not sure if I'm included in the Terrible Three here, but I do remember cavilling a little at your original post which, if I recall it correctly, referred to people "sneering" at those who had been left behind, both economically and socially, in communities like those described by the journalists and politicians you've quoted above. Of course, nobody can disagree with the analysis they make. Deindustrialization, over many decades, and the failure by many governments over that period to mitigate its devastating and largely regionally varied effects, has resulted in deep political disillusionment. Where I cavilled was on two fronts. You used, probably inadvertently, a classic right wing attack on the left. The Leftish elite sneer at white working class people who have suffered grievously in these communities by attributing their grievances to "racism and ignorance". The right understand them, the left don't. And, whereas I don't think you were directly excusing racism, I felt, maybe, that your argument might give a free pass to an element that exists in all our communities, affluent and poor, who need no excuse to parade nativism and racism. The right in politics want struggling people to blame immigrants for their problems, remember. Look over there, they say. Not here, with us, where the blame should really lie. It's the economics in the end, not the culture. Cultural distraction is the right's game.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 10:08:29 GMT
alec "With 20 -44 year olds showing the highest level of excess deaths in the UK last year, at 10%," I assume you mean the increase in excess deaths in this age cohort as of course 10% of this age cohort would be around 2.5 million people. On average around 0.5% of the age cohort die before they are 35, this rises to around 1.8% By 45. A 10% increase overall would amount to around a 0.1% rise in mortality in this age cohort. The main causes of death in this age cohort are accidental death followed by suicide/accidental overdose. We've had this conversation before and while the number of deaths associated with long term reactions to a viral illness have almost certainly risen and given the prevalence of covid infections over the last three years this is bound to be significant but it isn't the main driver of excess mortality in the under 45's or indeed the over 45's The biggest single cause of males dying in their 40's in the UK is suicide. U.K. Suicide rates fell for many years after Hungerford and Dunblane as access to firearms at home and work reduced substantially, but since 2017 it's risen by around 30% the rise in men had been significantly greater than among women but both have risen.The rate is higher in poorer communities reaching rates of over 40 per 100,000 in some income and age cohorts. This is a huge issue and relates directly to increased poverty caused by the regime and lack of mental health funding by the regime. Personally I have no objection at all with you flagging up covid related issues of concern but it does some what cloud your thinking to other more significant preventable health issues.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 10:30:03 GMT
Just one point further an applaud to both the Major and Blair government's the increased firearms restrictions on the UK population directly resulted in a reduction of firearms deaths by accident suicide and homicide that now numbers in the thousands. For someone who had access to a handgun daily for years I and anyone else who had similar access would be lying if they hadn't considered however fleetingly blowing their own brains out.
The factor in suicide attempts with firearms is its close to 100% success rate.
Needless to say frog faced hate gimp Nigel Farage wants our firearms legislation to be rolled back to the point it resembles the U.S.
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Post by graham on Jan 21, 2024 10:49:36 GMT
"Rishi Sunak is facing a possible defeat in the House of Lords this week over his controversial Rwanda deportation plan as peers prepare multiple bids to thwart its progress through parliament. The first test will come on Monday when peers debate a motion laid by former Labour attorney general Peter Goldsmith, which seeks to delay the ratification of the new Rwanda treaty until the government can show the country is safe. The international agreements committee, which is chaired by Lord Goldsmith and has four Conservative members, says that measures including an improved complaints process, training for Rwandan officials and a new asylum law guaranteeing people will not be returned to countries where they could be in danger must be in place before the treaty can be endorsed." Given that the regime can't show the country is safe, primarily because according to UK supreme court , non government bodies and the United Nations it isn't. This seems to be a potential game over moment. Whilst that is a nice thought, it will effectively prove a waste of time if the Lords gives way at the end of the 'ping pong' process.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 21, 2024 10:55:24 GMT
A few days back in response to a lament from Graham on former industrial areas voting Tory, I offered the opinion that Labour should try harder at understanding and offering something to the ex-Labour voters in the 'red wall' because they have had a rough deal in the last 45 years and was promptly accused by three posters of "excusing racists". So I am producing this extract from the Guardian's piece on Ashfield that makes my point perhaps better than I managed to: "It doesn’t take long to discover why many here feel abandoned. While terms like “red wall seat” and “left-behind town” have become a political shorthand for these former industrial heartlands, it is easy to detect a deeply held pride in the area’s past that has been bruised over decades. That civic pride is personified in Kirkby by Christine Kidger, 75, whose free labour has kept the town’s heritage centre (a shop front just off the high street) going for years. She previously championed a commemorative mosaic near the site of Summit Colliery, Kirkby, which has since become a business park. “I left school when I was 15,” she explained. “I could have given a job up on the Friday and I could’ve had a new job for the Monday. When you’ve got your pit, you’ve got your community, haven’t you? The pit closed in ’69. Then of course all the factories went. A lot of the shops are gone. All we’ve got really now is takeaways and barbers and nail places. It’s sad when you think about how it was and now.” It is a lament instantly recognised by Gloria De Piero, who represented the area for Labour until 2019. “If you’d gone back 30 or 40 years, all the men would have worked on the pits and the women would have worked in textiles. There were good, well-paid jobs. Now, people are working, but not paid very well. There’s a great community spirit. People care about law and order, border controls. But they’re typically more left wing economically. They know that they’re getting a raw deal.”" www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/20/i-dont-think-theyre-bothered-about-people-up-here-voters-in-lee-andersons-ashfield-turning-their-back-on-all-politiciansI'm not sure if I'm included in the Terrible Three here, but I do remember cavilling a little at your original post which, if I recall it correctly, referred to people "sneering" at those who had been left behind, both economically and socially, in communities like those described by the journalists and politicians you've quoted above. Of course, nobody can disagree with the analysis they make. Deindustrialization, over many decades, and the failure by many governments over that period to mitigate its devastating and largely regionally varied effects, has resulted in deep political disillusionment. Where I cavilled was on two fronts. You used, probably inadvertently, a classic right wing attack on the left. The Leftish elite sneer at white working class people who have suffered grievously in these communities by attributing their grievances to "racism and ignorance". The right understand them, the left don't. And, whereas I don't think you were directly excusing racism, I felt, maybe, that your argument might give a free pass to an element that exists in all our communities, affluent and poor, who need no excuse to parade nativism and racism. The right in politics want struggling people to blame immigrants for their problems, remember. Look over there, they say. Not here, with us, where the blame should really lie. It's the economics in the end, not the culture. Cultural distraction is the right's game. What's particularly depressing is that the devastation wreaked by the Tories on these communities allowed them, decades later, to capitalise on the resultant resentment in these same communities by peddling simple tales of othering etc.
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Post by alec on Jan 21, 2024 11:00:58 GMT
Danny - "What, 10% of 20-44 year olds died last year? That means they will all be gone in ten years! Some mistake, surely?" Stupid boy. Do you never read?
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Post by alec on Jan 21, 2024 11:30:00 GMT
steve - "Personally I have no objection at all with you flagging up covid related issues of concern but it does some what cloud your thinking to other more significant preventable health issues." I think that implying X isn't a big problem because Y is bigger is a false narrative. The question is what society does about the various threats. With covid, we've largely abandoned all efforts to mitigate the impacts. Never been done before. That's the problem. For example, last year, in the UK, deaths directly attributable to covid were greater than deaths due to HIV/AIDS by a factor of around 20. The level of ongoing physical impairment caused by the two diseases is similarly unbalanced. We have a stringent HIV/AIDS strategy in place, and we have signed up to the globally agreed WHO target to eliminate all HIV/AIDS deaths by 2030. In contrast, for most of us in the UK, there is in effect absolutely no strategy whatsoever on Covid. Covid remains the only lethal disease - the only one - and the only leading cause of death of any kind - on which the UK government has no overall strategy. That's the fact you need to consider. So if anyone's thinking is clouded, I'm afraid it's people like you who appear comfortable with these basic facts. This has never happened before in modern British life. It's extraordinary. But most extraordinary is the denialism that is rife within society at large, that paints moderate, centrist, perfectly reasonable opinions like mine - the kind of thinking that virtually everyone shared up until 2020 - as some kind of weird, extremist position.
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Post by alec on Jan 21, 2024 11:41:01 GMT
Linked example here - www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/21/gaslit-by-doctors-uk-women-with-endometriosis-told-it-is-all-in-their-headIn this case, a long history of the NHS ignoring and belittling women suffering from a very difficult medical condition, the like of which I can't really begin to understand. They have experienced trained NHS doctors telling them they were imagining that the excruciating pain they felt was all in their heads - “I feel a lot of mistrust towards the healthcare system in general, simply because I have been told that the pain was in my head, that I must have a low pain threshold or that I was in pain because I was fat.” This is the lived experience of thought to be 1.2m women in their interactions with the health service. It's a similar tale to those with ME and CFS. Indeed, it appears that the standard medical response from doctors when presented with chronic conditions they don't understand and haven't been trained to recognise is not one of support, understanding and detailed medical inquiry, but victim blaming, belittling and gaslighting - classic denialism. This is precisely what is going on with covid and long covid right now. Exactly the same medical playbook. The difference is that with covid, the liberal media is joining in.
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Post by shevii on Jan 21, 2024 13:19:21 GMT
It is a lament instantly recognised by Gloria De Piero, who represented the area for Labour until 2019. “If you’d gone back 30 or 40 years, all the men would have worked on the pits and the women would have worked in textiles. There were good, well-paid jobs. Now, people are working, but not paid very well. There’s a great community spirit. People care about law and order, border controls. But they’re typically more left wing economically. They know that they’re getting a raw deal.”" Not a big fan of vox pops- very often they will turn up during a weekday daytime and head straight for the town centre, getting a demographic that includes retired, out of work (deprived) and maybe a few shopkeepers who have a feel for the area. Some, like John Harris, will make more of an effort and try and search out local businesses, voluntary groups and so on but in general they will be speaking to people who have time on their hands and completely miss out the working population and the commuters, online shoppers and WFH. For poll watchers there's not much scientific about this even in you do tap into particular demographics. Having said that it was a good article and I think the key point is the above quote. It's easy defining the problem, far less easy to offer the solutions once conscious or unconscious decisions were made in the past to open up our markets to the global economy. Manufacturing or similar jobs are now restricted to things that can't easily be imported from China (and in any event you are mostly importing the components and raw materials anyway). Those Low volume, niche market, premium price goods like toiletries, specialist food, specialist clothing or leisure activities are important but won't create the scale of jobs needed and potentially are catering for a diminishing middle class who can afford those types of things in the first place. You could bring the jobs back tomorrow if you were willing to indulge in some form of protectionism but there's no desire to do that not least because re-shoring will produce a spike in inflation as we have all got used to getting goods cheap and no one had a plan for job losses. I think the minute you say "leave it to the market" then you're not going to solve the problem and the government intervention we see doesn't tend to be hands on. Where I work we get NIC employment allowance of the maximum £5k a year and very generous Research & Development tax credits, a relatively small subsidy for exhibitions. Probably not comparable to the old days in the 1980's where for example we'd have government grants that more or less covered the whole of a new manufacturing and accounts computer system but even so it's not awful. The government "funding" we get now is pretty vital but it's all very hands off and there's no strings attached which seems pretty much the case with Tata Steel presently. So I personally believe if we are to solve anything that is wrong with the country then we need heavy government intervention and support and one that is tied to keeping the resultant jobs in the UK if the government has helped with your start up or with your research costs or whatever. What is reasonable in terms of contract clauses would have to be worked out but as an example if you were to design something with R&D tax credits attached then it shouldn't be right that if you come up with a winning product you then offshore your head office, offshore production or simply sell out to a multinational without some compensation to the government attached. You only have to look at the relative success of China with a very hands on government approach to everything as compared to, say, India which is mainly relying on a much less interventionist approach and far less government planning. If the Green new deal ever does happen then while many jobs will have to be UK based for installation and maintenance it will remain less effective for creating those jobs in the article if we are not designing and making our own systems.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2024 13:20:05 GMT
Bit busy here - can’t get a word in. Might try later when it’s less crowded.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 13:39:47 GMT
"I think that implying X isn't a big problem because Y is bigger is a false narrative" I agree Of course I didn't do any such thing.
Addressing the issue of improved mental health resources doesn't mean that this excludes public health measures aimed at precautionary prevention.
But it does get a tad tedious when I point out that suicide the single greatest cause of deaths in men between 40-50 in the uk, which is 100% preventable. It's abundantly clear that the government has no effective strategy to deal with this in fact it's actions have almost certainly made matters worse.The
this for some reasons triggers you to defend your position on covid a position which in principle has significant positive elements.
Incidentally HIV remains the biggest cause of death amongst women of child bearing age in the world as it has been for every year in the last three decades. There are effective treatments to prevent hiv deaths now, but they cost, it's wildly optimistic to expect prevention to be 100% effective world wide unless philanthropists such as Bill Gates dig deeper into their pockets as it's evident that a country like ours that's cut its overseas aid budget by 30% while handing out billions to their chums for ineffective ppe isn't going to be a driver for change.
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Post by norfolkandgood on Jan 21, 2024 13:39:51 GMT
"The axe I grind with Steve is a question of viewpoint" Well that's one way of looking at it🤔 20- posts personally attacking Ed Davey since Christmas. View AttachmentOnly surpassed by Steve's posts about traitor Trump on a supposed UK polling site
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 13:43:37 GMT
Norfolk
I think you will find the vast majority of posts here have little to do with UK specific polling, from all regular posters. Personally I think having a deranged lunatic dictator in charge of the worlds largest economy and nuclear arsenal is more dangerous for the UK than even the re-election of a Tory government.
Incidentally having looked at your posts none appear to relate to polling ,.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 21, 2024 13:55:10 GMT
"The axe I grind with Steve is a question of viewpoint" Well that's one way of looking at it🤔 20- posts personally attacking Ed Davey since Christmas. View AttachmentOnly surpassed by Steve's posts about traitor Trump on a supposed UK polling site We also post about what's going on in other European countries and the geo-political situation more widely. There are also eor's very informative posts about US politics. Do you have a problem with all that?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2024 14:25:09 GMT
Not a big fan of vox pops- very often they will turn up during a weekday daytime and head straight for the town centre, getting a demographic that includes retired, out of work (deprived) and maybe a few shopkeepers who have a feel for the area. Some, like John Harris, will make more of an effort and try and search out local businesses, voluntary groups and so on but in general they will be speaking to people who have time on their hands and completely miss out the working population and the commuters, online shoppers and WFH. For poll watchers there's not much scientific about this even in you do tap into particular demographics. Having said that it was a good article and I think the key point is the above quote. It's easy defining the problem, far less easy to offer the solutions once conscious or unconscious decisions were made in the past to open up our markets to the global economy. Manufacturing or similar jobs are now restricted to things that can't easily be imported from China (and in any event you are mostly importing the components and raw materials anyway). Those Low volume, niche market, premium price goods like toiletries, specialist food, specialist clothing or leisure activities are important but won't create the scale of jobs needed and potentially are catering for a diminishing middle class who can afford those types of things in the first place. You could bring the jobs back tomorrow if you were willing to indulge in some form of protectionism but there's no desire to do that not least because re-shoring will produce a spike in inflation as we have all got used to getting goods cheap and no one had a plan for job losses. I think the minute you say "leave it to the market" then you're not going to solve the problem and the government intervention we see doesn't tend to be hands on. Where I work we get NIC employment allowance of the maximum £5k a year and very generous Research & Development tax credits, a relatively small subsidy for exhibitions. Probably not comparable to the old days in the 1980's where for example we'd have government grants that more or less covered the whole of a new manufacturing and accounts computer system but even so it's not awful. The government "funding" we get now is pretty vital but it's all very hands off and there's no strings attached which seems pretty much the case with Tata Steel presently. So I personally believe if we are to solve anything that is wrong with the country then we need heavy government intervention and support and one that is tied to keeping the resultant jobs in the UK if the government has helped with your start up or with your research costs or whatever. What is reasonable in terms of contract clauses would have to be worked out but as an example if you were to design something with R&D tax credits attached then it shouldn't be right that if you come up with a winning product you then offshore your head office, offshore production or simply sell out to a multinational without some compensation to the government attached. You only have to look at the relative success of China with a very hands on government approach to everything as compared to, say, India which is mainly relying on a much less interventionist approach and far less government planning. If the Green new deal ever does happen then while many jobs will have to be UK based for installation and maintenance it will remain less effective for creating those jobs in the article if we are not designing and making our own systems. An interesting post shevii You prompt a few reactions - I think "the market" understands pretty well what the future of manufacturing in UK is :- www.makeuk.org/insights/blogs/what-does-the-future-hold-for-uk-manufacturingand its doing pretty well at the moment too :- www.makeuk.org/insights/reports/manufacturing-outlook-2023-q4And the government is investing :- www.gov.uk/government/news/billions-of-investment-for-british-manufacturing-to-boost-economic-growthI presume Reeves will continue to do so without being so foolish as to pretend that Whitehall knows how to run manufacturing companies. And absolutely not comparable with the 1980s please. A little offshoot of those days is currently explaining, live on national tv how its error ridden systems gave the British Post Office the opportunity to sue some of its employees for thefts they didnt commit. ICL , ( along with British Leyland etc ) was saved by The State from its inability to compete with IBM. It gave up on R&D and bought from Fujitsu who later bought it. It became so embedded in Government preferred procurement that even Thatcher couldnt get rid of it. Its DSS project "Pathway" was a disaster , shut down with a nine figure write off. This was the platform it used for the Horizon project. So I hope Reeves doesn't have "interventions" like this in mind. On China vs India , as you say China's government is very "hands on" -its a communist dictatorship. And its attempt to inject capitalism isnt going well :- www.reuters.com/world/china/china-orders-indebted-local-governments-halt-some-infrastructure-projects-2024-01-19/www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-shrinking-xi-jinping-debt-real-estate-american-world-2024-1?r=US&IR=Twww.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66840367Whereas India's approach is :- www.brookings.edu/articles/india-china-reversal-of-fortunes/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2024 14:33:06 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2024 14:46:47 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 21, 2024 14:53:24 GMT
Basic steel production in Britain has been dead in the water for a decade. There is no point in propping up zombies by giving subsidies to foreign companies. Electric arc production from scrap is likely to be sustainable, and stuff that it can't produce can be imported at a cost that doesn't penalise our manufacturers. Kinnock probably knows this perfectly well, but in our political system MPs are expected to represent their constituents on local matters, whatever their personal views. The issue here, as in so many other places over decades, is how to cushion the economic blow, and invest to get other economic opportunities in the area. Or, very unfashionably, to encourage some of the local residents to move to where the jobs are. Ironically that's what actually happened in Corby when the steel industry was being developed - people with relevant skills came from elsewhere to staff it.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 21, 2024 17:03:29 GMT
I presume Reeves will continue to do so without being so foolish as to pretend that Whitehall knows how to run manufacturing companies. And absolutely not comparable with the 1980s please. A little offshoot of those days is currently explaining, live on national tv how its error ridden systems gave the British Post Office the opportunity to sue some of its employees for thefts they didnt commit. ICL , ( along with British Leyland etc ) was saved by The State from its inability to compete with IBM. It gave up on R&D and bought from Fujitsu who later bought it. It became so embedded in Government preferred procurement that even Thatcher couldnt get rid of it. Its DSS project "Pathway" was a disaster , shut down with a nine figure write off. This was the platform it used for the Horizon project. So I hope Reeves doesn't have "interventions" like this in mind. In my first job after Uni I worked for one of the companies that was part of ICL (English Electric Leo Marconi) which basically sold knock-off versions of IBM's 360 series that they called System 4. That of course was Wilson's "white heat of the technological revolution", so Tony Benn was responsible. I remember later on (I think it was in the 1970s-80s) that the UK Government, rather than buying the American E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, decided to build its own based on the Comet 4 airframe ( Nimrod AEW in the RAF parlance). That used GEC computers, so from the same stable as EELM, and was another technical disaster. Eventually the UK bought the E-3.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2024 17:09:33 GMT
I presume Reeves will continue to do so without being so foolish as to pretend that Whitehall knows how to run manufacturing companies. And absolutely not comparable with the 1980s please. A little offshoot of those days is currently explaining, live on national tv how its error ridden systems gave the British Post Office the opportunity to sue some of its employees for thefts they didnt commit. ICL , ( along with British Leyland etc ) was saved by The State from its inability to compete with IBM. It gave up on R&D and bought from Fujitsu who later bought it. It became so embedded in Government preferred procurement that even Thatcher couldnt get rid of it. Its DSS project "Pathway" was a disaster , shut down with a nine figure write off. This was the platform it used for the Horizon project. So I hope Reeves doesn't have "interventions" like this in mind. In my first job after Uni I worked for one of the companies that was part of ICL (English Electric Leo Marconi) which basically sold knock-off versions of IBM's 360 series that they called System 4. That of course was Wilson's "white heat of the technological revolution", so Tony Benn was responsible. I remember later on (I think it was in the 1970s-80s) that the UK Government, rather than buying the American E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, decided to build its own based on the Comet 4 airframe ( Nimrod AEW in the RAF parlance). That used GEC computers, so from the same stable as EELM, and was another technical disaster. Eventually the UK bought the E-3. Theres a book called Bad Buying by Peter Smith which features a lot of UK GOV. procurement. We are pretty crap at it.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 21, 2024 17:26:49 GMT
In my first job after Uni I worked for one of the companies that was part of ICL (English Electric Leo Marconi) which basically sold knock-off versions of IBM's 360 series that they called System 4. That of course was Wilson's "white heat of the technological revolution", so Tony Benn was responsible. I remember later on (I think it was in the 1970s-80s) that the UK Government, rather than buying the American E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, decided to build its own based on the Comet 4 airframe ( Nimrod AEW in the RAF parlance). That used GEC computers, so from the same stable as EELM, and was another technical disaster. Eventually the UK bought the E-3. Theres a book called Bad Buying by Peter Smith which features a lot of UK GOV. procurement. We are pretty crap at it. Thanks Colin; I shall get it.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 21, 2024 17:27:52 GMT
In addition current polling is much more frequent and almost certainly more accurate, indeed a couple of the pollsters by changing their methodology may be under estimating the Labour lead
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Post by shevii on Jan 21, 2024 17:47:28 GMT
Thanks- those are all interesting articles and have read them all in detail. Probably too much information in there to respond to everything! On China v India the article only seems to be talking about catch up for India (by a date in the 2040's) and referencing women in the workplace and education as the main reasons- things China was already doing. I am probably out of date on India and we're going back maybe 30 years now but whenever the company I work for dealt with India- import or export it was a bureaucratic nightmare- carnets, letter of credits taking hours to deal with and being rejected for dots out of place. Also, maybe just one bad experience, but samples were brilliant and the first order was dreadful enough for us to dump it and never to be used again. That sort of bureaucracy was also present on my holidays there- just getting a visa was a hassle and getting in and out of airports was very unpleasant and had it not been such a nice holiday destination I'd have never dreamed of going back. Maybe things have changed but it certainly wasn't (small) business friendly or tourist friendly until the point you stepped out of the airport. Certainly you are right to flag up China's mistakes on the property boom and not hard to see the possibility there will be some sort of crash and, even in a dictatorship, they may not have the tools to deal with it. Hard to say with confidence how they will deal with this though. I'm more hazy when they talk about foreign investors running scared in China simply because I don't know the level of foreign investment, what sort of investment, and what this actually would mean for the country to be deprived of this. From an external point of view ("making things in Britain") it's hard to see the positive for us or the West as deflationary pressures and recession (but impending crash or not China has currently been nowhere near falling GDP or GDP per capita if you believe their figures) would presumably make them even more competitive and I'm sure they by now control plenty of supply chains. The MakeUK articles certainly summarised well the direction of travel on manufacturing but I'm not convinced they were especially positive on the mass jobs issue as opposed to GDP and profit- certainly not sure where the low education type of jobs would be coming from. I'm not sure I entirely understand the concept of 3D printers and how they differ from "plant"- we have them at work but they are used mainly for prototypes and very small batch runs. If anything Computer Aided Design and the links with 3d make it far easier to offshore things as you just send drawings and specs and it gets produced for you with far less worry about quality standards or disputes over quality standards. It also allows China to be competitive on much smaller minimum order quantities (assuming this is 3d printing). c-a-r-f-r-e-w when he is around will probably have some views on where this leads and to whose benefit. All I can really tell you is that currently no-one in the UK can come anywhere close to competing with China (or indeed Poland) however technologically advanced their set up is and what used to be restricted to large companies with the buying power and scale to ensure quality assurance has now filtered down to small companies and low batch sizes. Might not mean too much to you on equivalent prices but this is one of the companies we use for low batch sizes (which is probably where you'd be hoping UK growth had a chance): jlcpcb.com/Obviously not a recommendation or anything but on price, low batch sizes, quality and turnaround & delivery times hard to see the UK ever competing on this type of set up without some form of protectionism/intervention/subsidy. Maybe different rules apply in different industries perhaps?
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Post by mercian on Jan 21, 2024 17:51:05 GMT
mercian There is no evidence that President Biden is senile he occasionally stumbles over words, so do I and I'm nearly twenty years younger. ... The man [Trump] needs to be in a mental care facility not the white house. If you want to see cognitive decline in public display check out this link. youtu.be/bAlmRYlGh1Y?si=dtn3x3FIqXfyQQgF I wasn't defending Trump, but there are plenty of videos of Biden 'showing his age' shall we say. If he's this bad now, what will he be like in 4 years' time?
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,417
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 21, 2024 17:51:31 GMT
Basic steel production in Britain has been dead in the water for a decade. There is no point in propping up zombies by giving subsidies to foreign companies. Electric arc production from scrap is likely to be sustainable, and stuff that it can't produce can be imported at a cost that doesn't penalise our manufacturers.It is exactly that type of thinking, repeated over and over, decision by decision since 1980, that has left hollowed out former industrial centres all over the UK and US that are willing to vote for fascism out of sheer desperation that no one is listening to them. Neo-liberalism is reaping what it has sown - not that the billionaire class care; they are quite happy to fund fascists so long as they don't threaten the privileges of the super rich.
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Post by mercian on Jan 21, 2024 18:00:39 GMT
And, whereas I don't think you were directly excusing racism, I felt, maybe, that your argument might give a free pass to an element that exists in all our communities, affluent and poor, who need no excuse to parade nativism and racism. The right in politics want struggling people to blame immigrants for their problems, remember. Look over there, they say. Not here, with us, where the blame should really lie. It's the economics in the end, not the culture. Cultural distraction is the right's game. Except of course that immigration does affect economics, particularly in these left-behind areas, because it increases competition for the jobs that do exist and by extension helps to keep wages low.
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,320
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Post by steve on Jan 21, 2024 18:14:41 GMT
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Post by alec on Jan 21, 2024 18:21:34 GMT
Hold onto your hats folks. Storm Isha passing over tonight, and it's forecast to have a low of 949mb. Only a handful of storms have ever been recorded below 950.- for the UK, I mean.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 21, 2024 18:25:22 GMT
In addition current polling is much more frequent and almost certainly more accurate, indeed a couple of the pollsters by changing their methodology may be under estimating the Labour lead So my team is scoring even more goals than I thought. Come on yooouuuu Redssss I only sing when we're winning too. 😋🤣
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