isa
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Post by isa on Jan 19, 2024 23:47:54 GMT
isa Sorry to be enigmatic. It was a comment on some recent weird rants. Fair enough. That doesn't narrow it down much, though. Spoilt for choice, really, I suppose.
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Post by eor on Jan 20, 2024 1:43:43 GMT
The only quibble I would have is the comment on "rare allergic reactions". They aren't rare. Under proper medical definitions, 'very rare' = 0.01%, 'rare = 0.01% - 0.1%, 'uncommon = 0.1% - 1%, 'common = 1% - 10% and 'very common' = >10%. Systemic side effects are extremely common (>50%) for the mRNA jabs, although it must be said that most of these are generally considered as mild and self limiting. However, I've seen a lot of doctors advise patients to book a day off after the mRNA jab because so many people report adverse reactions. Under any other circumstances, that level of reactogenicity would be deemed as unacceptable, and while given the balance of risk that wouldn't mean the covid jabs were removed from use, it would mean that a large scale effort to produce better vaccines would be mounted. alec - I appreciate you were talking about adults there, but amongst the plethora of jabs that our little one has had in her first two years there have been a couple where we've been told that side-effects are "likely" (and in both cases happened just as predicted) and one where they were deemed so probable that we were told to give her a pre-emptive dose of paracetamol before even waiting for the symptoms to flare. I was happy in each case to just warn my boss of what was happening and the increased likelihood I'd need to juggle things to deal with it, because the prospect of a baby spending a day with diarrhoea or a couple of days of a nastily spiking fever was still much better than the realistic expectations of what an unvaccinated experience of those particular illnesses would be like for her. But the grandparents seemed rather surprised by it all, one of the stronger "oh it wasn't like this in your day!" reactions**, mostly I think because there are so many more things that can be vaccinated against now as the technology behind the jabs has got a lot more advanced? Either way, I do wonder if it's all getting more priced-in, the idea that a vaccine may well knock you about for a day or so but it's still well worth it against a rougher and longer experience with something you're quite likely to catch? (** car safety being the strongest one yet domjg , visible shudders when they think of using towels or cushions as booster seats in those "tinfoil boxes" as you put it earlier)
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 20, 2024 5:54:17 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 20, 2024 6:14:47 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope.
Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 20, 2024 6:16:43 GMT
@fecklessmiser - "Oversized vehicles are an unnecessary* irritant on the majority of other road users.." I'm waiting for our Danny to explain that it's the roads that are too small. I think i mentioned recently seeing an original mini and how tiny it is compared to a modern mini. Similarly if you see a typical modern car parked outside a standard 60s garage you wonder how it would be possible to drive it into the garage. One reason is the same as likely motivated lockdown, how we are today so much more risk averse. Modern car doors are far thicker than back then because they have built in reinforcement against side impacts. I wonder how the economic cost of every vehicle being 6 inches wider (or more?) compares to number of lives saved? If you take a road with cars parked both sides, yes the remaining carriageway is going to be a foot narrower than that same road in the 60s. Thats before we get onto modern wing mirrors. Or that its far far more likely to have cars parked both sides at all.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 20, 2024 6:32:32 GMT
, Sunak is naturally awkward with terrible vibes. People look at him and assume that yes, there is a man who can't even use a hammer properly, id imagine few people today can use a hammer properly. Its not as easy as you might think, not 'properly'.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 20, 2024 6:39:50 GMT
]You can deflect all you like. We all know what YOU did. (European superstate? a total joke and yet you double down on it...) And we will never forget and never forgive. Ermmm? I voted in a referendum? helping putin by doing so.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 20, 2024 6:44:18 GMT
I suspect it must be based on a general feel about what Labour historically stands for in many people's minds - stuff like looking after the poor and the NHS etc. less of a general feel and more of an actual fact that con deliberately cut funding for looking after the poor and the nhs etc. With the result thousands died. Quite possibly more than died from covid. 'More or less' calculated 2000 extra died last december alone because of growing waiting time in A&E.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 20, 2024 8:04:31 GMT
, Sunak is naturally awkward with terrible vibes. People look at him and assume that yes, there is a man who can't even use a hammer properly, id imagine few people today can use a hammer properly. Its not as easy as you might think, not 'properly'. Regarding that issue, you hit the nail on the head.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 20, 2024 8:07:50 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope. Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up. I think I can beat you there CB. I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. I hope you have a more memorable time today. Back in the day away trips were often adventures. Breaking down on the M40 on the way back from Oxford and being given a lift to High Wycombe station in a Thames Valley Police patrol car. Having a kick about on Scarborough beach at dawn after an overnight car journey north for a Middlesbrough match later that day. Being served by a Yorkshire lass who asked if we wanted gravy on our food in a large Chinese restaurant in Sheffield, before a match against United. Getting plastered in Blackpool after a match and waking up as dawn broke and our train crept into Kings X. All 50 years ago.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 20, 2024 8:27:44 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope. Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up. I think I can beat you there CB. I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. I hope you have a more memorable time today. Back in the day away trips were often adventures. Breaking down on the M40 on the way back from Oxford and being given a lift to High Wycombe station in a Thames Valley Police patrol car. Having a kick about on Scarborough beach at dawn after an overnight car journey north for a Middlesbrough match later that day. Being served by a Yorkshire lass who asked if we wanted gravy on our food in a large Chinese restaurant in Sheffield, before a match against United. Getting plastered in Blackpool after a match and waking up as dawn broke and our train crept into Kings X. All 50 years ago. Some nice stories there, SDA. I'm on the train to Brum now and all is running to time thus far. I have CAMRA discount vouchers to cash in at a pub near the Orient ground so a timely arrival at the Coach and Horses in Leyton is crucial. Surprisingly, I see the Leyton Orient Supporters Club is also in the 2022 Real Ale Guide, albeit I may be barred entry on the grounds of inappropriate accent. Come on the Trotters!
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Post by alec on Jan 20, 2024 8:31:01 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 20, 2024 9:01:46 GMT
Alternatively he's just a useful idiot, for which he is a self made man
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Post by guymonde on Jan 20, 2024 9:41:05 GMT
I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. I hope you have a more memorable time today. I might well have been at the same game. I was an amateur QPR fan (Liverpool are my real alma mater) and I had a mate who was obsessed with attending matches anywhere in London. What I remember about Orient was that my mate (no longer with us 😪) had a spot by one of those metal barriers on the terraces which were next to where the coppers were stationed. He was not particularly timid but visiting football in the 1970s was best approached with caution, though the thing that scared me was going down the stairs from the North End at Highbury where it felt you could forget about using your legs and be conveyed along by the crowd with your feet dangling in the air. And this was way before Hillsborough.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 20, 2024 9:45:10 GMT
I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it.
You're lucky I policed a Milwall v Fulham game in 1982 and it scarred me for life!
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 20, 2024 10:13:32 GMT
My good friends Joe and Arnie will probably both be there. They live in Manor Park and ‘yomp’ their way across Wanstead Flats to get to home games. They speak very highly of footie in the ‘lower’ divisions, and of course have tasted several of them in recent years, including the oddly named Vanarama.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2024 10:16:41 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 20, 2024 10:40:26 GMT
I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. You're lucky I policed a Milwall v Fulham game in 1982 and it scarred me for life! Wouldn't policing a Millwall v anyone game scar you for life?
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 20, 2024 10:55:16 GMT
Many thanks for this, and apologies for a quibble over your findings, but this is an important point: to evaluate the effect of the campaign period, we need to look at the polls before against the final polls - not the result. So for example in 1992 the polls moved just a little during the campaign period, so it is reasonale to conclude that the Conservatives were really 6-7 points ahead at the start, and had already 'turned around' the Labour leads from earlier in the parliament, which were in any case probably several points lower than the polls were showing. Hi James E , no need to apologise for a good quibble, and completely get your point. I did consider doing it against final polling, but made an executive decision to do it v the actual result, as the main thing I was trying to look at was as general indicators of final outcome. There are a number of challenges doing comparisons between different elections and time periods - changes in polling methodology, frequency of polls, the time range once chooses. For example for the '01 GE election, if I had chosen 7/8 months before the GE, the Lab lead then would have been a lot lower (or even shown a Tory lead) due to the fuel protests.
I do think the data suggests that if a party is to fight back successfully from a big polling deficit, it needs to close the gap in the 6/9 before the dissolution, leaving it to a campaign is a long shot. Countering that, all elections are different, and '24 will have its own blend of characteristics, but currently there is very little for Tory strategists to be optimistic about.
I watched an interview of Peter Oborne by Higo Rifkind yesterday, and he was bemoaning the fact that Isaac Levido, protégé of Lynton Crosby, was now in No10. Indicating the adoption of wedged based, hate fuelled campaign strategy. Oborne was quite clear that he didn't see the current government as a traditional conservative one, but more as an extreme right-wing one based on clientelism. While not explicitly saying so, it seemed clear that he thought it was better for the country that Starmer won the next GE. After that I listened to the Rest is Politics episode where they were interviewing Angela Rayner. Definitely got the same vibes from Rory Stewart. I think the centre/right, remain leaning section of the Tory electoral coalition (who opted for Johnson in '19) this time round will predominantly either stay at home or defect to either Labour or the LDs. Cant really see how Sunak at this stage will convince them to stick with the Tories.
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jan 20, 2024 10:59:06 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope. Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up. Now that there's annual promotion from the National League it'll be a never-ending quest. Have you been to Damson Park for instance?
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jan 20, 2024 11:01:40 GMT
I suspect it must be based on a general feel about what Labour historically stands for in many people's minds - stuff like looking after the poor and the NHS etc. less of a general feel and more of an actual fact that con deliberately cut funding for looking after the poor and the nhs etc. With the result thousands died. Quite possibly more than died from covid. 'More or less' calculated 2000 extra died last december alone because of growing waiting time in A&E. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't you want more people to die of Covid?
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 20, 2024 11:01:43 GMT
Some interesting information in The Guardian on who was behind the YouGov poll that predicted disaster for the Tories. It seems that Lord Frost was only the front-man, who had to put his head above the parapet. While the polling, set out in Monday’s Daily Telegraph, was presented by Lord Frost, the estimated £70,000 cost was covered by the Conservative Britain Alliance, a previously unknown organisation described only as a “group of Conservative donors”. The organisation, if that is what it is, has no web presence, and no register as a company, charity or electoral entity. Those rumoured to be behind it who have insisted they are not, include Paul Marshall, the hedge fund manager behind GB News, and a series of other figures in the rightwing Tory firmament.
Under British Polling Council guidelines, all polls have to say who commissioned them. However, this needs only a name to be contacted – in this case David Frost – and does not need to specify who paid for the work.
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Post by alec on Jan 20, 2024 11:06:39 GMT
Worth paying attention to - www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/20/germany-farmers-boots-fuel-far-right-protests-afdThe far right are, on one level, completely, brain barkingly stupid, but on the level of political manipulation they are traditionally quite brilliant, and routinely outflank the liberal centre and left. Like a dog chasing a car, they know when to start running, they are fast, and when they catch the car, they either look completely stupid or cause and almighty crash. Brexit was a classic example of this. In the US, the Netherlands, and now Germany, the far right are using their excellent manipulation to target discontent among the farming community. It's clearly seen as a global theme that can work for them, and, like so many of these campaigns, if it works there, it will be imported here, and everywhere. Farming is on the front line of many environmental battles we collectively face, and farmers are needed to help meet these global challenges, but the traditional antagonism between farmers, academics and policy makers is fertile ground (ha!) for exploitation. Care is required, or this could provide another foothold for the far right.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 20, 2024 11:13:23 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope. Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up. Now that there's annual promotion from the National League it'll be a never-ending quest. Have you been to Damson Park for instance? Just approaching London Marylebone station. Of course you're right, the churn in Football League clubs now means that the 92 Club is an ever moving target now. I've been to 60 plus English league grounds, but some of those grounds either no longer exist and/or the clubs are now in the National League. As for Damson Lane, home of Solihull Moors, I've been a number of times. It's slap bang next to the giant Land Rover plant at Solihull. We used to use the ground for works team matches.
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mercian
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Post by mercian on Jan 20, 2024 11:20:13 GMT
I never went to many away games, but I've been to one or two that no longer exist. Ninian Park was one.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 20, 2024 11:29:39 GMT
Worth reading the whole thread, but I've been saying there was a real possibility of something similar for a while now The polls have been dire for the tories for 16 months now and I can't see what will shift it.
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isa
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Post by isa on Jan 20, 2024 11:53:14 GMT
I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. I hope you have a more memorable time today. I might well have been at the same game. I was an amateur QPR fan (Liverpool are my real alma mater) and I had a mate who was obsessed with attending matches anywhere in London. What I remember about Orient was that my mate (no longer with us 😪) had a spot by one of those metal barriers on the terraces which were next to where the coppers were stationed. He was not particularly timid but visiting football in the 1970s was best approached with caution, though the thing that scared me was going down the stairs from the North End at Highbury where it felt you could forget about using your legs and be conveyed along by the crowd with your feet dangling in the air. And this was way before Hillsborough. I had that very experience at an Arsenal match. It wasn't at Highbury, though. It was at Huish, Yeovil, in a 3rd Round FA Cup tie in 1971. I was eleven at the time, standing on the home terrace and part of a 14,500 attendance. I was literally swept off my feet by the movement of the crowd several times. Rather disconcerting, but incredibly exciting to be part of such an occasion. My first experience of a 'proper' match before a full house. It was a very cold day and I can still remember a chap drinking Veno's cough mixture neat from the bottle. It was a Veno's bottle, anyway, but it might conceivably have contained something even more fortifying.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2024 12:04:18 GMT
Up with larks this morning. Early train to London Euston to catch this morning, via Birmingham New Street. Off to watch Leyton Orient v Bolton Wanderers this afternoon. Brisbane Road is one of the few London football grounds I've not yet visited. Accordingly, this will be new ground number 3 I've been to this season; Field Mill and Brunton Park the other two. The Den, Edgerley Park and St James Park are three more to chalk off before the season ends, I hope. Silly adventures from a football loving kid who has never quite grown up. I think I can beat you there CB. I went to an Orient/QPR game circa 1974, though I don't remember anything about it. I hope you have a more memorable time today. Back in the day away trips were often adventures. Breaking down on the M40 on the way back from Oxford and being given a lift to High Wycombe station in a Thames Valley Police patrol car. Having a kick about on Scarborough beach at dawn after an overnight car journey north for a Middlesbrough match later that day. Being served by a Yorkshire lass who asked if we wanted gravy on our food in a large Chinese restaurant in Sheffield, before a match against United. Getting plastered in Blackpool after a match and waking up as dawn broke and our train crept into Kings X. All 50 years ago. These sort of stories, which I think fans of a certain age, including myself could all replicate are part of the joys of football, and something in my self-exile from going to home games and only being able too make maybe one away game a year on average, I miss. Roll on retirement - I'll be able to get to a few more after then. Your first visit to Brisbane Road predates mine by a few years. Mine was on New Years Day 1980 to watch the mighty Irons win 4-0. Stuart Pearson scored a couple - lots forget he ever played for us - but it was John Lyall's tactical genius in playing Pancho in midfield that helped us win the cup that year. That game was the coldest I have ever been at football. Truly ridiculously cold. Colder than Pompey away a few years later where us and the Pompey fans warmed ourselves up by indulging in a brilliant, fun snowball fight. Colder even than a freezing evening in Bucharest watching our naive-in-Europe team being out-noused by an inferior Steau side. Three weeks after that game we were back at Orient for a much closer fought game - edging them out 3-2 in our first victory on our run to winning it. We easily massacred a certain midlands side in the quarter finals that year in a game the result of which was never in doubt even before we scored the only goal of the game from the spot in the game's dying moments. Thank you Mr McNaught. My main memory of those two trips to the Os, but don't ask me which of the two games they happened in this three week period were a) seeing our fans turn on the tout leaches and availing them of their tickets. Secondly, was seeing the little wooden hut that I'd got my programme from pre-game burnt out and in embers as we left. Lord only knows what that was about. Batty - enjoy the game but I hope our neighbours get the better of the Trotters - I can never forgive them for matching us stride for stride as after a truly dreadful start to the season (we didn't win at home until late January) we were playing superbly winning game after game in the run-in in one of our perennial-back-then relegation battles of the early 2000s that led to our being relegated on 42 points. 42 points! Trotters is a fitting name for the swines. (Off the back of that relegation we immediately lost the likes of Joe Cole, Glenn Johnson, DiCanio, Kanoute, and a year or so later, Carrick and Defoe. But that's how we roll).
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 20, 2024 12:20:29 GMT
Cause and effect
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2024 13:19:26 GMT
Worth reading the whole thread, but I've been saying there was a real possibility of something similar for a while now The polls have been dire for the tories for 16 months now and I can't see what will shift it. I just don't understand the factions being so active and visible. There is the sense of a death wish about the Conservative Party. One can only hope that the Centre Right Hole which will appear after their demise will be filled by Starmer's Labour Party.
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