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Post by johntel on Jan 11, 2024 11:09:27 GMT
Just watching the beginning of the Post Office enquiry proceedings. I wouldn't fancy being grilled by the Counsel currently questioning a PO investigator. He's done his homework and is doing a pretty effective demolition job on the witness. The Fraud Investigator being grilled, on whose signed statements confirming the integrity of Horizon a number of prosecutions were based, is saying that he doesn't have any technical knowledge of software and that if there had been any problems his superiors would have told him...
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 11, 2024 11:11:17 GMT
I come to this late...as I see several have posted lists of films. I won't post a list....just one, as it seemed to have slipped under the radar a little, undeservedly IMO. 'Blast From The Past' (Alicia Silverstone / Ben Fraser / Sissy Spacek) A nuclear war themed romantic comedy...and one where the apocalypse doesn't happen. Apparantly based on a true story, this starts in 1962 with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Convinced that the world is about to blow, husband, Calvin takes pregnant wife, Helen (Spacek) to the fallout shelter he has built under their house. Helen soon gives birth to Adam, who is home schooled and brought up on 1950's pop culture. 35 years later, with supplies running low, Adam ventures out into the world above for the first time. Often sweet, poignant and sometimes ball-bouncingly funny, this is a very easy watch. A sunday evening, snuggling on the sofa with a loved one and a glass of red sort of easy watch. Mark, you have just sent me off down a massive rabbit hole. The suggestion that the story is based on a true one seemed quite unlikely so I thought I would look it up. The Wikipedia article for the film makes the following extraordinary claim: "The film is loosely based on the life of ex footballer Garth Crooks, who spent 4 years in the loft of his parent’s Stoke-on-Trent home, during the Gulf War, after he misinterpreted an ITV news report." As far as I can tell this is completely untrue (or at least I can't find any other reference to that happening) - which is a reminder not to trust everything you read on Wikipedia. So I tried a more general search and discovered suggestions it is based on an American couple. Richard and Helen Thomas, who did exactly what is described in the film, only without the child. However, again I can't substantiate that from any other source, so that seems to be an invention as well. It looks like it is a fictional story, but one that is breeding urban myths! Interesting insight into the internet.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 11, 2024 11:12:54 GMT
Here's something totally unrelated to politics but I would like to hear views. Faith and I spend a considerable amount of time looking after our new granddaughter. We thought it would be an excellent idea to speak to her in both English and Spanish, if she begins speaking with the capacity to understand both languages that's as far as we can see a bonus, both our natural children started speaking at around 9 months, so not that far away. Our daughter, who speaks passable Spanish herself is reluctant because her partner doesn't like it because he can't speak Spanish, our obvious conclusion on this was rather than spend the eight hours a day he does playing computer games , why doesn't he learn Spanish in some of that time, rather than denying the opportunity for his daughter to grow up bilingual. Any ideas? My view: Parents should have the major say, perhaps even the final say. But grandparents are entitled to develop their own relationships with their grandchildren (e.g. through helping and supporting). Tricky. I would place a high priority on talking to the parents and reaching negotiated settlement, where gaming propensities are used in a positive way (such as somerjohn’s suggestions). Learning a second language as expediently as possible seems a no-brainer to me.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 11, 2024 11:13:19 GMT
domjg"At the same time of course my naturally left-handed mother in law was having her sinistrism sometimes physically beaten out of her" While not being beaten over it, I still remember in my first two years of Primary School my teacher making me and two other left handed kids to write with our right hands. When I got to my third year a more enlightened teacher allowed me to revert to my left hand I'm pretty sure it impeded my progress for a while and certainly had a negative effect on my handwriting
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Post by jib on Jan 11, 2024 11:15:09 GMT
16 weeks or so from a possible election, the Tories must be thinking that May could be the best opportunity now? With the need to fight the Lib Dems in the Shires diluted by the Post Office scandal they can concentrate on attacking Labour.
Leave it to October and the Post Office scandal will be chip paper and they'll fighting on two fronts again.
I think they will still lose pretty badly - but the defeat will be less. The Tory press will keep the Post Office injustice at the top of the agenda. The next few opinion polls will be fascinating.
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Post by James E on Jan 11, 2024 11:20:00 GMT
I think I saw a post recently from the estimable James E , (or possibly the equally estimable jimjam or neilj ), to the effect that the most recent polling averages had LAB on c45% and CON on c26%. I was wondering how much 'cushion' that built in to the prospect of a LAB victory later this year. So I had a little tinker on Electoral Calculus and plugged in what would seem to be very harsh VI for LAB and seemingly optimistic VI for CON given current polling. I decided to plump for LAB 38% and CON 33%, i.e. a swing back to CON of 7% vis à vis current standings. That's quite a lot considering how relatively stable LAB and CON VI has been over virtually the last year. Anyhoo, I got LAB on 321 seats, 5 short of an overall majority. Considering the SF situation, that suggests to me that LAB would be able to govern alone, without relying on support from other parties. CON would be on 241 seats. Conclusion: CON seem to need something seismic to break in their favour during the coming months to have even a sniff of retaining power. Thanks for that! The polling average has been in the 15-20% range for nearly 12 months now, and this does not look like ending soon. As for the margin needed for a Labour majority: There is close agreement between Electoral Calculus and the larger MRPs from Survation and Savanta towards the end of last year on this. The headline figures are each showing Labour taking around 400-425 seats on a lead of around 17%. The pattern in each case is that they show Labour gaining around 15 seats for each 1% swing from the Conservatives (as opposed to the 10 seats per 1% implied by UNS). I would expect the Tories to recover around one-third of the RefUK VI and up to half of their 2019 voters who 'Don't Know'* which would give them a boost of 6 points and cut the Labour lead from around 18 to around 12. With this in mind, here is a scale of how various different Labour leads might translate in seats, based on those MRPs and the '15 seats per 1% swing' pattern. 3% Labour lead- 315 seats (10 short) 5% Labour lead- 330 seats (majority of 10) 7% Labour lead - 345 seats (majority of 40) 9% Labour lead- 360 seats (majority of 70) 11% Labour lead-375 seats (majority of 100) 13% Labour lead - 390 seats (majority of 130) 15% Labour lead - 405 seats (majority of 160) 17% Labour lead - 420 seats (majority of 190)** 19% Labour lead - 435 seats (maajority of 220) *around a quarter of Con2019 voters answer 'Don't Know', which is 11% of everyone who voted. All precedents suggest that some recovery of this is likely (and the same applies to the 8-10% 2019Lab DKs). ** my figures are modelled around this figure of 420 seats on a 17% lead in the vote. This would be 218 Labour gains on a swing of 14%, hence about 15 seats per 1%. The Survation and Savanta MRP figures showed the SNP still dominant in Scotland with Labour taking around 10-15 Scottish seats. If you think Labour will do significantly better/worse than this in Scotland, then adjust their seat total up or down.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 11, 2024 11:26:28 GMT
JamesE
Thanks for that last post. You've just reminded me why I came to this site in the first place, and what keeps me hanging on to it, albeit by a thread at times.
You're very clearly a gentleman and a psephological scholar too!!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 11, 2024 11:29:58 GMT
Nicely illustrates why 2024 is much more akin to 1997 than 1992
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 11, 2024 11:35:53 GMT
I think about 90% of the supporters of independence I know (which is about 70% of the people I associate with) would agree there should be no referendum: they think a simple vote for independence should be enough and a referendum is a Westminster trick to block independence A. You mean a "simple vote" by a devolved government with a SNP/Green majority. SHAKEN BUT NOT STIRRED B. Thanks for yr advice re Bond books. Will follow up. (I read all those Bonds which had been published when I was 13/14. The only one I hv reread is Casino Royale, which stands up: short, tight plot, romance, lots of sex, violence, torture, not bogged down in technical stuff, & organised round gambling, + a brilliant final line.: card games, like weddings, court cases, train scenes etc, never fail. I am writing a book entiled Seven Scenes In Films & Novels Which Never Fail. So far I have only completed the (provisional) title.) Oh yeh & when I started making cocktails I realised why they should be Shaken but Not Stirred (probably a good description of most government's reactions to crises)/
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 11, 2024 11:42:23 GMT
pjw1961
Love the story about Garth Crooks in the loft. Still chuckling about it now.
Those who aren't the biggest admirers of his football punditry, and I believe they are many in number, might appreciate his long term return to his attic!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2024 11:43:12 GMT
Just watching the beginning of the Post Office enquiry proceedings. I wouldn't fancy being grilled by the Counsel currently questioning a PO investigator. He's done his homework and is doing a pretty effective demolition job on the witness. The nature of that investigator and his attitudes makes you realise what the postmasters were up against.
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Post by James E on Jan 11, 2024 11:43:15 GMT
As an explanation as to why the Labour gains are likely to be so much better than UNS: the past 7 YouGovs from mid-November onwards show an overall 17% swing from Con to Lab, but the various demographic cross-breaks show just how strongly this is skewed towards the Tories' strongest areas of support.
Leave voters 23% swing South England 22.5% Midlands 19% Class ABC1 18%
North England 15% Class C2DE 15%
Scotland 10% London 9% Wales 8% Remain voters 7%
This is not entirely a product of having held larger leads in those demographic groups at the top of the list. The Conservatives are actually keeping a larger proportion if the 2019 vote in Scotland, London and perhaps Wales, and also with their small group of Remain voters. This is the opposite of what happens in a Uniform National Swing.
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Post by alec on Jan 11, 2024 11:47:26 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 11, 2024 11:47:45 GMT
Rafwan While of course the parents should have the major say, my daughter's reluctance isn't based primarily on any concerns it relates to her partner's unwillingness to learn anything new that doesn't relate to immediate self gratification. Does this seem a bit churlish , well yes but it's true , and given they live in our house , rent free, we undertake the majority of the child care duties, we do all of the household domestic tasks , shopping and cleaning and he's on the bloody computer , using our internet ,our computer our electricity and our heating and lighting while contributing next to nothing we do feel that we should have some input here. His idea of child care is to put the baby in the day cot while he puts his headphones on so he can't hear her as it interrupts his gaming. In case you were thinking that this is some teenage dad , he's not he's a grown man nearly 30. He's actually at heart a nice guy It's bemusing to me the hugely different priorities that he and several of his friends of similar age with children give to their lives , compared to my generation.
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 11, 2024 11:48:12 GMT
I'm getting bored with liking yr posts Mother Goose. Can't you say something idiotic for a change. But you stick to yr specialism rather than like so many posters on here suddenly becoming an expert on Horizon Zzzz. Hislop is one of the few people entitled to hold the floor as PEye broke the story years ago as everyone now knows.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 11, 2024 11:59:44 GMT
Nicely illustrates why 2024 is much more akin to 1997 than 1992 I was listening to Neil Kinnock talk about the 1992 election recently. Very self-effacingly too. He didn't attribute Labour's defeat to the now legendary and infamous Sheffield rally, although he talks amusingly about how that was really a series of the most hilarious cock-ups from beginning to end, but he thought all was lost from the very beginning. In other words, the feeling inside the Labour camp, was that the party was a goner way before the campaign even began. Kinnock concedes that there simply wasn't a coalition of voters available to Labour then that was big enough for them to win. He, very self critically, puts his personality very much at the heart of that problem. Put simply, and quite movingly and humbly by Kinnock himself, he reflected that he was never going to make it to Downing Street and Labour were never going to win with him as their leader. He cited other reasons for Labour's defeat, but felt the "Kinnock as your PM" millstone was decisive. A hurdle too high for the majority of the UK electorate to jump. Two things struck me about the interview. Was he being too self-critical? He probably was in some ways, but I think he was right about it in essence. I campaigned during that election, and his Welshness was a clear factor amongst English voters. Regrettable but true. The other thing that struck me was being reminded what a thoroughly decent fellow he is and how we sometimes deprive ourselves of qualities in politics because we often overvalue the wrong ones at the expense of those that really matter.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 11, 2024 12:10:11 GMT
THe implication being that the more than occasional visits by The Guardian are -what ? More appropriate here.? More trustworthy? Or just more acceptable to your way of thinking ? In my case 'not pay-walled' is the most relevant consideration re the Guardian. That and the fact that all the pop-up adverts and videos on the Independent cause my ancient PC to freeze. Local newspaper sites are the worst. Trying to load the Oxford Mail results in a veritable assault of popups and surveys but I guess that's pretty much their only way to make money these days, not many people are going to buy an on-line subscription to their local paper.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 11, 2024 12:23:23 GMT
Sadiq Khan will be delivering a speech later today in relation to the huge damage caused by Brexit following detailed research. Despite the fact that Mr Khan is the most senior directly elected politician in the U.K. as mayor of the UK capital city, I confidently predict there will be next to no coverage by our legacy media or response from senior Westminster leadership in the Labour party. Sticking your head in the sand and pretending it's not a problem might work as an election technique but it's bad governance. youtu.be/03AEeNpatU4?si=PLRksxfrJHIDed-q
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Post by wb61 on Jan 11, 2024 12:26:47 GMT
pjw1961 Love the story about Garth Crooks in the loft. Still chuckling about it now. Those who aren't the biggest admirers of his football punditry, and I believe they are many in number, might appreciate his long term return to his attic!! I thought it was the Country and Western singer then I realised I was suffering from premature alphabetisation in respect of the surname!
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Post by jib on Jan 11, 2024 12:55:16 GMT
Sticking your head in the sand and pretending it's not a problem might work as an election technique but it's bad governance. Speaking of which, has anyone heard from Ed Davey lately? He's strangely quiet.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 13:00:54 GMT
Here's something totally unrelated to politics but I would like to hear views. Faith and I spend a considerable amount of time looking after our new granddaughter. We thought it would be an excellent idea to speak to her in both English and Spanish, if she begins speaking with the capacity to understand both languages that's as far as we can see a bonus, both our natural children started speaking at around 9 months, so not that far away. Our daughter, who speaks passable Spanish herself is reluctant because her partner doesn't like it because he can't speak Spanish, our obvious conclusion on this was rather than spend the eight hours a day he does playing computer games , why doesn't he learn Spanish in some of that time, rather than denying the opportunity for his daughter to grow up bilingual. Any ideas? I would say that you can make suggestions but the parents' wishes trump yours, whether you agree with them or not. EDIT: I wrote that before you reminded us that they're living with you rent-free which does perhaps give your view more weight than otherwise.
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Post by Rafwan on Jan 11, 2024 13:02:12 GMT
steveHeartfelt sympathies! (From a fellow grandaddy!)
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Post by isa on Jan 11, 2024 13:08:16 GMT
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 13:12:26 GMT
Regarding the Horizon case of course if it hadn't been raised by the excellent itv drama the regime would have continued to effectively ignore the length of time it's taking to resolve and would have continued merrily to grant contracts to Fujitsu. But they see narrow partisan advantage out of doing in this instance probably the right thing so rushed legislation proceeds. I think that even the TV drama would have been brushed aside if this wasn't an election year.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 11, 2024 13:14:19 GMT
Once more into the breach, dear friends!
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 11, 2024 13:16:50 GMT
bardin1 Thanks for your comment I know this is probably out of your line but do you think a 1st edition of a James Bond novel with an imperfect but existing dust jacket is worth anything. Can't remember which novel my friend has but it's an early one but not Casino Royale. robbiealive This blog should help you www.peterharrington.co.uk/blog/collecting-james-bond-first-editions/The quality of the dust jacket may well be the principal determining factor on price. In addition to their simplicity, James Bond novels are also popular because of their affordability, as the disparity between prices at different levels of condition is much greater than in other modern books. Perfect copies can run into the tens of thousands of pounds, but it is possible to find nice ones ranging from only a few hundred to a few thousand pounds, depending on the book. Condition is a primary consideration when valuing Bond novels, and even a flaw as minor as a price-clipped dust jacket can noticeably affect the price, which is good for collectors. Scarcity also plays a role. Fleming’s last book, Octopussy, is common enough that fine copies are valued at around £175 pounds.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 11, 2024 13:27:44 GMT
Just listening to a couple more horizon victims on R4 just now.
This matter has now gone so far that the Post office needs to make a public statement acknowledging that all the prosectutions it made using Horizon evidence were unsound, and formally asking government to immediately set them aside.
Further to immediately make publicly available all the evidence it has about this.
The PO is a publicly owned organisation and needs to be instructed to immediately withdraw all attempts at legal action to prevent a quick end to this. Proper compensation for the victims of this is total restitution of their financial affaire to where they would have been had none of this happened. Plus compensation for the trauma involved, and i think the only way to measure that is to ask how much an average person would have wanted to be paid to agree to all this happening to them.
It has now become completely insane that the government is allowing this process to continue when it could end it tomorrow by instucting PO to end it. The talk about changing the law seems to be yet another delaying tactic which could push resolutin of this past the next election.
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Post by mercian on Jan 11, 2024 13:28:41 GMT
Just watching the beginning of the Post Office enquiry proceedings. I wouldn't fancy being grilled by the Counsel currently questioning a PO investigator. He's done his homework and is doing a pretty effective demolition job on the witness. The Fraud Investigator being grilled, on whose signed statements confirming the integrity of Horizon a number of prosecutions were based, is saying that he doesn't have any technical knowledge of software and that if there had been any problems his superiors would have told him... He also said that he just signed whatever the lawyers told him to sign. He seems to be a not very bright stooge who just did what he was told but enjoyed bullying sub-postmasters and postmistresses.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jan 11, 2024 13:31:32 GMT
Some fine names to enjoy as well - given the locals in Wellingborough will not longer be able to pick a Bone, their selection to choose from will include the rather utilitarian sounding Gen Kitchen for Labour (sponsorship opportunity for Ikea?) and, the presumably highly dangerous, Ana Savage Gunn for the Lib Dems. Meanwhile in Kingswood Mr Skidmore gently slides out of Westminster.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 11, 2024 13:32:44 GMT
Here's something totally unrelated to politics but I would like to hear views. Faith and I spend a considerable amount of time looking after our new granddaughter. We thought it would be an excellent idea to speak to her in both English and Spanish, if she begins speaking with the capacity to understand both languages that's as far as we can see a bonus, both our natural children started speaking at around 9 months, so not that far away. Our daughter, who speaks passable Spanish herself is reluctant because her partner doesn't like it because he can't speak Spanish, our obvious conclusion on this was rather than spend the eight hours a day he does playing computer games , why doesn't he learn Spanish in some of that time, rather than denying the opportunity for his daughter to grow up bilingual. Any ideas? I would agree with you and Faith on this. There is a rather similar situation on my own family. One of my nieces who speaks Mandarin (she went to China as a teacher of English under the auspices of the British Council after graduating from Cambridge) is married to a British Palestinian, but they are bringing their children as English monoglots even though he is fluent in Arabic. My sister-in-law, her mother, did try for a number of years to persuade her and her husband to bring up their children as polyglots, but without success and I am afraid you may have the same experience. It is that period up to the first birthday in particular, where the brain is plastic enough to learn any language where learning a new language is most easy.
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