18-OCT 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 28% / LDM 9% / REF 7%

[steve]

EmCat
Those sort of figures yield around a 160 majority for Labour the Tories avoiding total wipe out , just, but still their worst result since 1906!
The lib dems would be comfortably in third at around 40 mps.

If that's the straw the Tories are grasping at it indicates the extent of their expectations.

[alec]

Distinct suggestions of a bit of the white powdery stuff for parts of the country on and around Christmas Day. In fact, some of the models are suggesting the Christmas getaway could be mired in the stuff.

And there's also a bit of snow in the forecast too!

Happy days.

[domjg]

Dec 17, 2023 11:48:29 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 17, 2023 10:41:16 GMT domjg said:

Maybe I'm being too optimistic but I sense a tiny glimmer of light in the tories and their reliable regurgitators in the press appearing to go all out on immigration.

Not long ago there were indications of them wanting to conduct a performative,more general 'war on woke' focussing on transgender and identity issues. Maybe it's too soon but that seems to have been abandoned hopefully due to them having realised what polls had been telling us, namely that no one out there gives a shit.

So now they focus unrelentingly on immigration as the last thing standing, a topic on which surveys show they are already very dimly regarded and where a voter exercised by this topic might well ask why after so many years they hadn't something to reduce it already. They're doomed of course but they still have plenty of scope for using their poisonous rhetoric to encourage a minority to attack people and so create real world harm in their desperation to hold onto the votes of the ignorant, narrow minded and downright unpleasant.

Your analysis is probably right, but it leaves a bad taste as a political tactic. They was a very nasty uptick in racist incidents after Farage's last dog-whistle campaign in 2016. 

Absolutely, bad taste in the mouth is all you get with this tory party. Any real world victims of this would simply be seen as collateral damage by them as scrambling to save their own sorry arses in the short term is far more important to them than long term damage to our society.

We know what we're dealing with, a party inhabited by borderline or actual sociopaths who must be stopped at all costs.

[Deleted]

Carfs :

“ Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up which leaves things like pointing out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to preserve/advance better the interests of the middle class.”

Us “guys” have voted Labour in all recent elections and have no interest at all in bettering the interests of the middle class. That is just one of your many inventions.

Anyway, do keep carping.

[steve]

"Distinct suggestions of a bit of the white powdery stuff for parts of the country on and around Christmas Day."

[robbiealive]

Dec 16, 2023 22:40:27 GMT @isa said:

I bet robbiealive is glad he chose now to return from his year long sabbatical. See you next December, Robbie. 

I assume you are referring to Carfrew. He is "argumentative" in the perjorative sense. One can imagine him as a small child lurking under the dining-room table, hidden by the table cloth pulled down all around him, muttering "I'm right, it's the grown-ups who are silly". He follows no rules of debating known to others. If challenged he goes off on another tangent. If expressed graphically, the debate would have a core with lines radiating from it in every direction, none connecting with any other. 
(One can imagine it might get quite crowded under the table when the "hateful eight" gather for a pow wow. Oldnat in his miniature kilt reading a comic "the Battle of Bannockburn", Steve in his cop uniform playing with the Luger his dad brought home from the War, Trevor in a different kind of uniform, mainly black, Alec busy making a meccano wind turbine ... a sign hanging on the cloth "No Gurls knot alowd")
Actualy the dull weight of the eight seems less much oppressive: & everyone else is enjoying themselves: tho only 2 new substantial posters as far as I can see since Oct 2022, & other regulars not contributing: most regrettably Charles? 


 

[steve]

It's a bizarre and alarming world we find ourselves in.
If at his next clan rally the Traitor told one of his encounter stories " I met this guy, big, guy, strong guy, chancellor of Germany, he came up to me, tears in his eyes and said " the migrants are poisoning the blood of our people and we need to hunt them down like vermin" the audience wouldn't bat an eyelid, the legacy media would try to normalize or excuse the comment as " Nazi locker room banter" and 80% of republican supporters would still back him.

This world is a bat shit insane train heading to crazy town and I want to get off.

[steve]

robbiealive

"One can imagine him as a small child lurking under the dining-room table"

I've checked he's not there just the usual Troll in search of a bridge.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 17, 2023 12:29:52 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

Carfs :

“ Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up which leaves things like pointing out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to preserve/advance better the interests of the middle class.”

Us “guys” have voted Labour in all recent elections and have no interest at all in bettering the interests of the middle class. That is just one of your many inventions.

Anyway, do keep carping.

Oh lots say they voted Labour. But there was a guy on the old board, who used to go on and on about how pissed off he was about having voted for the LDs, then later denied it. Do you remember him? 🤣

You can say you voted for whoever you like and it may make little difference in practice. Many of the Blairite MPs who shafted Corbyn may have voted Labour…

Meanwhile if you are intensely relaxed about policies advancing the middle class at the expense of others and complain bitterly whenever such ideas are questioned, it may be clear what you really support.

Keep pretending

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 17, 2023 12:36:12 GMT robbiealive said:

Dec 16, 2023 22:40:27 GMT @isa said:

I bet robbiealive is glad he chose now to return from his year long sabbatical. See you next December, Robbie. 

I assume you are referring to Carfrew. He is "argumentative" in the perjorative sense. One can imagine him as a small child lurking under the dining-room table, hidden by the table cloth pulled down all around him, muttering "I'm right, it's the grown-ups who are silly". He follows no rules of debating known to others. If challenged he goes off on another tangent. If expressed graphically, the debate would have a core with lines radiating from it in every direction, none connecting with any other. 
(One can imagine it might get quite crowded under the table when the "hateful eight" gather for a pow wow. Oldnat in his miniature kilt reading a comic "the Battle of Bannockburn", Steve in his cop uniform playing with the Luger his dad brought home from the War, Trevor in a different kind of uniform, mainly black, Alec busy making a meccano wind turbine ... a sign hanging on the cloth "No Gurls knot alowd")
Actualy the dull weight of the eight seems less much oppressive: & everyone else is enjoying themselves: tho only 2 new substantial posters as far as I can see since Oct 2022, & other regulars not contributing: most regrettably Charles? 


 

Lots of personal attack there Robbie. Should please those among the Blairites who don’t talk much policy but love the ad Homs. Are you still in the “hateful 8%“ who are pro privatisation, happy to let people suffer while the energy companies take the mick?

[steve]

robbiealive

"when the "hateful eight" gather"
We could find more room if you want to make it the nasty nine!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Dec 17, 2023 13:36:53 GMT steve said:

robbiealive

"when the "hateful eight" gather"
We could find more room if you want to make it the nasty nine!

Fuck that, if he’s joining he can have my place Steve! (You can stay and listen about the mollusc thing if you like…)

[EmCat]

Dec 17, 2023 11:48:50 GMT steve said:

EmCat
Those sort of figures yield around a 160 majority for Labour the Tories avoiding total wipe out , just, but still their worst result since 1906!
The lib dems would be comfortably in third at around 40 mps.

If that's the straw the Tories are grasping at it indicates the extent of their expectations.

There was a view a couple of months back where it really looked as though CCO was doing a linear projection that would show "everything will be all right on the night"

I was applying that same "let's do a linear projection forward" to the current lead, as it really looks as though those are the only straws they have left to grasp.

Somehow, they appear to be hoping that some magic hand-waving will improve their fortunes, rather than, say, actually doing something about their position to change people's opinions of them.

[EmCat]

Dec 17, 2023 12:36:12 GMT robbiealive said:

Dec 16, 2023 22:40:27 GMT @isa said:

 only 2 new substantial posters as far as I can see since Oct 2022

I stumbled across the original UKPR by accident, looking for a site that had some analysis of polling. (I think at the time, I was tired of every opinion poll being spun as "great news for .... party", even when manifestly it probably wasn't good news for most parties).

More importantly, finding a site that specifically was not the preserve of one side's supporters, was a bonus.

I think the problem isn't so much that the number of people who are interested in polling analysis is low (which it probably is), but how easy the site is to find.

A search for "polling analysis" brings back Electoral Calculus, and the born again UKPR (and a few others, such as 538), but not this one.


googlethatforyou.com?q=polling%20analysis

Which makes this pretty much a "word of mouth" site, rather than a "interesting one I found"

[robbiealive]

Welcome to England.
The Tories decided that Universities had to be financed by fees: their contribution to Uni finances has risen from 25% in 2010 to over 50% today. Fees for domestic students have been more-or-less capped for years, thus forcing Universities to rely on foreign students, whose numbers & fee contribution has risen v substantially. In any rational view, foreign students would be seen as a huge benefit & the vast majority would not be counted as net migrants.
"In May 2023, analysis by London Economics estimated first-year international students enrolled in the 2021/22 academic year [brought] net economic benefits to the UK of approximately £41.9 billion, while estimated total costs were £4.4 billion, suggesting a benefit-to-cost ratio of 9.4:1. . . . the economic impact was spread across the entire UK, with international students making a £58 million net economic contribution to the UK economy per parliamentary constituency across the duration of their studies. This is equivalent to £560 per UK resident."

Brexit cut the number of EU citizens working in the NHS & Care Sector & they have largely been replaced by non-EU migrants who look after our sick, elderly, infirm, mentally ill, etc. Tory MPs, many of whom whine about the pressures of separation from their homes and families, having discovered that students & foreign workers are [almost] human beings with families, have decided that most of them must live alone; live that is in a society where they face daily prejudice, an hostility whipped up by Sunak & senior ministers, most of them the non-white offspring of migrants themselves, amplified by the ERG riff-raff.

When the students and migrants have been used-up, they are sent backing, to a general chorus of "good riddance." Somehow England has become inured to the racist rhetoric of Sunak, etc, and to treating people in such a cruel, vindictive & ungrateful manner. I say England because it seems that in the rest of Britain the hostility toward migrants is much less marked.

Welcome to England..

[Rafwan]

pjw1961

“ … if you set up an account with an academic publisher you can probably get hold of it”. Life is too short, I am sure you will agree!

As I understand your position, you say that 1983 and 2019 demonstrate that the British voting public will never back a left wing agenda. You say this has been demonstrated historically and if we ignore the lessons of history we are doomed.

I believe this is wrong; history has no “essence” from which we can predict the future. What we can learn from it is sharply circumscribed.

Prior to 1978, history “taught” us that the voting public would never back non-white candidates. This was a widely-held view, including among the Labour establishment of the time. You will be very hard-pressed to find a single elected local councillor “of colour” before that time. The idea seems (and is) completely bizarre now. “History” failed us.

Prior to 1984, history “taught” us that the voting public would not back gay candidates. The Bermondsey by election of 1983 (another so far unmentioned factor in Thatcher’s later victory) emphasised this important “historical lesson”. This idea too now seems (and is) ludicrous. That particular glass barrier was smashed in 1984 by Chris Smith’s moving and brave declaration at a rally in Rugby. Again, “history” failed us.

[Danny]

Dec 16, 2023 22:22:56 GMT alec said:

Kent and Portsmouth latest hospital trusts to declare critical emergencies,

I see Portsmouth also declared one at the start of November. Another article says "The trust said there are record numbers of patients attending A&E arriving both by ambulance and walk-in patients. And there has been a 'significant increase' in patients with COVID-19 and flu." So it seems covid is not the principle reason, the miscellaneous walk in patients seem to be the problem. Which suggests the GP service is in a state of collapse, so patients are referring themselves to hospital. Sounds like a collapse due to systemic undefunding. Not forgetting the NHS is by design intended to run at maximum capacity in winter, so as services deteriorate it will end up at over capacity.

Its funny how because of the threat of overloading hospitals in 2020 we declared a national state of emergency and said money was no object. But now the normal annual overload is coming around, there is no new money in sight. Does make you wonder if what happened in 2020 had more to do with politicians wanting to be seen to be doing something. Though of course, they had bad medical advice it would be a catastrophic epidemic, whereas that has never come true anywhere on earth, whatever was done or not done.

[Danny]

Dec 17, 2023 8:29:31 GMT crossbat11 said:

Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he?

Er, no. He TALKED left wing stuff as has everyone back to Margaret Thatcher.

[Mark]

Dec 16, 2023 20:46:00 GMT crossbat11 said:

Dec 16, 2023 19:38:44 GMT graham said:

2017 was hardly a 'pretty bad defeat' when Labour managed to destroy the Tory majority. The Tories only clung on to office courtesy of the DUP.

Were the social democrats in charge in 1945? Following Gaitskell's death in January 1963 , Wilson was not the preferred candidate of the social democrats.

I think the 2017 Labour defeat looks better than it was because of the marked improvement in the party's support during the campaign from a very low base. Opinion polls and local election results pointed to a catastrophe for Labour but there was a surge during the campaign when May's complete ineptitude as a campaigner almost derailed the Tories. Pratfall after pratfall and Corbyn had an Andy Warhol fifteen days of fame in the spotlight. The boy went down to a noble defeat. Not with all hands but with quite a few.

The figures don't lie. Yes, May lost the wafer thin majority she went into the election with but it was hardly "destroyed" by Labour. Labour's rise in VI was accompanied by a substantial rise for the Tories too that largely neutralised the potential seat-winning effects for Labour. Labour's gains were modest. 30 seats and the overall seat tally was less than Callaghan achieved when Labour were ejected from office office in 1979. The Tories won 55 more and outpolled Labour by 800,000 votes. Their net seat loss was a mere 13.

This is a reasonably dispassionate and objective psephological and political analysis of the much mythologised 2017 election:-

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-2017-general-election-not-that-close-after-all/

There were 4 major factors in 2017, three of which helped Labour, 1 that helped the tories.

1. Choice (Mostly helped Labour)

Describing Labour as 'rd tories' is not something that started when Starmer replaced Corbyn as Labour leader.

Indeed, it was a charge often levelled at Milliband's Labour party, despite Milliband the man being a left of centre social democrat.

Left of centre voters were, for the first time in ages, given a choice of a major party they could positively vote for in 2017, as opposed to voting to keep the tories out with varying amounts of nose pinching, or simply voting Labour out of habit.

What helped Labour was that they got LOC votes that usually stayed at home or voted for minor parties as well as genuinely enthusing a part of the electorate.

2. Equal media time / press coverage (Massively helped Labour)

When the GE was called, Labour were a whopping 25 points behind. May thought she was going to walk it.

There was one factor that few saw coming.

The press had done a such total hatchet job on Corbyn (Including the Sun snapping him mid-step and putting "Corbyn does a jig at the cenotaph' on their front page) that when the media, during the election campaign, were forced to give eual campaigning time, and preople actually got to 'meet' Corbyn, a fair few realised that he wasn't the monster they had been told he was. In other words, parts of the press had gone so over the top that if backfired on them.

3. Choice - part 2 (Helped the tories)

May ran a bastar awful election campaign. While Crbyn was in his element, May was often missing in action. In fact it was an even worse campaign than Hague's wind-up-doll 'I'm going to save the pound' act.

BUT - as said previously, this was a genuine choice election. The tory vote went up, if only slightly as ROC voters did something that those of us on the left usually do - vote to stop the other lot getting in.

4. Brexit (Heped Labour, even though it shouldn't have done)

The tories tried to make 2017 the brexit election, even though we weren't quite there yet. That was to come in 2019.

The tories were offering a hard brexit, meanwhile, Corbyn wanted to talk about anything - anything - but brexit. Corbyn was already equivocating / being evasive on brexit, which cost him dearly when there was a brexit election in 2019, but, in 2017, he was still able to swerve the brexit question and talk about his domestic agenda.

The upshot being that Labour were seen s the de-fact remain option, more than it actually was, meaning that, for those primarily voting on the brexit issue, the remain vote coalesced around Labour.

[robbiealive]

Dec 17, 2023 13:38:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Dec 17, 2023 13:36:53 GMT steve said:

robbiealive

"when the "hateful eight" gather"
We could find more room if you want to make it the nasty nine!

You look more like the Tiresome Two ... Xx


ELEGY TO THE HATEFUL EIGHT ON
THE OCCASION OF THE DEMISE OF UK POLLING 1

Their Finger of Fate stopped the Clock
In the Grotesque Blog Time Forgot.
The Hateful Eight, ever locked in Debate,
Each One certain they could helm the Ship of State. 
But their vessel, named Angst, was steered by Cranks,
Whose impotent Ranks fired nothing but Blanks
Til it finally sank on the Goodwin Banks!
....
Their Train (of thought) marooned in the Station,
Its hapless crew in futile deliberation.
The Electronic Board flashes: !Abort Destination!

The macho merchants of gloom did empty the Room,
Thus Sealing themselves in a Testosterone Tomb
Marked:Toxic Waste:
Not to be opened til the first Crack of Doom!

[mercian]

Dec 17, 2023 14:03:16 GMT robbiealive said:

 I say England because it seems that in the rest of Britain the hostility toward migrants is much less marked.

Possibly because there's fewer of them?

[mercian]

Dec 17, 2023 14:25:10 GMT Mark said:

Dec 16, 2023 20:46:00 GMT crossbat11 said:

BUT - as said previously, this was a genuine choice election. The tory vote went up, if only slightly as ROC voters did something that those of us on the left usually do - vote to stop the other lot getting in.

The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million, the biggest increase since 1979.

[pjw1961]

Dec 17, 2023 14:13:46 GMT Rafwan said:

pjw1961

“ … if you set up an account with an academic publisher you can probably get hold of it”. Life is too short, I am sure you will agree!

As I understand your position, you say that 1983 and 2019 demonstrate that the British voting public will never back a left wing agenda. You say this has been demonstrated historically and if we ignore the lessons of history we are doomed.

I believe this is wrong; history has no “essence” from which we can predict the future. What we can learn from it is sharply circumscribed.

Prior to 1978, history “taught” us that the voting public would never back non-white candidates. This was a widely-held view, including among the Labour establishment of the time. You will be very hard-pressed to find a single elected local councillor “of colour” before that time. The idea seems (and is) completely bizarre now. “History” failed us.

Prior to 1984, history “taught” us that the voting public would not back gay candidates. The Bermondsey by election of 1983 (another so far unmentioned factor in Thatcher’s later victory) emphasised this important “historical lesson”. This idea too now seems (and is) ludicrous. That particular glass barrier was smashed in 1984 by Chris Smith’s moving and brave declaration at a rally in Rugby. Again, “history” failed us.

Tell me, if you fell down a set of steps and hurt yourself would you consider that experience and take more care in future to avoid the same problem arising, or would you declare that there is no essence in experience that you can learn from and merrily charge down them as you did before?

[steve]

robbiealive

I thought you were going to get Gordon Banks in that ode somewhere but you missed the target.


How about
The disillusioned one walked the plank
He was last seen swimming to Jodrell Bank.

That's art that is!

[pjw1961]

steve - in our debate on whether Sunak prefers travelling by executive jet or helicopter, here's one for the latter camp:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/17/rishi-sunak-intervened-to-ensure-vip-helicopter-contract-was-not-cancelled

[Rafwan]

Dec 17, 2023 15:32:57 GMT pjw1961 said:

Dec 17, 2023 14:13:46 GMT Rafwan said:

pjw1961

“ … if you set up an account with an academic publisher you can probably get hold of it”. Life is too short, I am sure you will agree!

As I understand your position, you say that 1983 and 2019 demonstrate that the British voting public will never back a left wing agenda. You say this has been demonstrated historically and if we ignore the lessons of history we are doomed.

I believe this is wrong; history has no “essence” from which we can predict the future. What we can learn from it is sharply circumscribed.

Prior to 1978, history “taught” us that the voting public would never back non-white candidates. This was a widely-held view, including among the Labour establishment of the time. You will be very hard-pressed to find a single elected local councillor “of colour” before that time. The idea seems (and is) completely bizarre now. “History” failed us.

Prior to 1984, history “taught” us that the voting public would not back gay candidates. The Bermondsey by election of 1983 (another so far unmentioned factor in Thatcher’s later victory) emphasised this important “historical lesson”. This idea too now seems (and is) ludicrous. That particular glass barrier was smashed in 1984 by Chris Smith’s moving and brave declaration at a rally in Rugby. Again, “history” failed us.

Tell me, if you fell down a set of steps and hurt yourself would you consider that experience and take more care in future to avoid the same problem arising, or would you declare that there is no essence in experience that you can learn from and merrily charge down them as you did before?

I don’t think I would then avoid ever using the steps again, but would approach the problem more rigorously (as Chris Smith did). But above all, I don’t think I would equate my pitiful incompetence using stepladders with the broader sweep of electoral history.

[steve]

pjw1961

[leftieliberal]

Dec 16, 2023 20:17:58 GMT hireton said:

Latest Opininium

Labour lead sits at 13 points.
• Labour 40% (-3)
• Conservatives 27% (+1)
• Lib Dems 11% (n/c)
• SNP 3% (n/c)
• Greens 7% (+1)
• Reform 9% (n/c)

Polldrums from Opinium. Look back at the last-but-one poll from them and the VI was Lab 40%, Con 27%. hireton and his ilk tend to go quiet when the Labour lead rises, but shout when it falls.

[pete1]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hamas deliberately let loose these three young men with a white flag, knowing and to prove, that the IDF don't follow their rules of engagement and that these hostages would be shot on sight.
But however this came about, this tragic event has completely changed the situation. Israel can no longer continue with their indiscriminate bombing and shooting in quite the same way that they have been doing as part of their ruthless retaliation afte the October 7th massacre. Another tragedy like this will no doubt spell disaster for Netinyahu. On the positive side, at least it could mean fewer unnecessarily lives lost.
This new development couldn't be better for Hamas. They now have a much stronger hand and their bargaining power has increased dramatically. I can foresee a longer pause, more as aid, more prison/hostage exchanges and even possibly a cease fire. The IDF can only hope to regain the initiative completely again, once all the hostages are released.

[leftieliberal]

Dec 17, 2023 8:04:47 GMT crossbat11 said:

All very odd but, hey ho, on to Michael Foot we go.

My favourite quote about Michael Foot is "What is the opposite of nepotism? Being Paul Foot's uncle."