|
|
Post by graham on Dec 16, 2023 22:30:22 GMT
In 2017 Scotland indirectly kept the Tories in office.Had it not been for Ruth Davidson's 'Tory surge' and the gains from the SNP the Tories would have been unable to continue even with DUP support. Well, if my auntie had a pair of wotsits she'd be my uncle. Corbyn's Labour made a similarly modest recovery in Scotland in 2017 to the one May/Davidson achieved in that election but in the English and Welsh battlefields Labour made only modest gains against the Tories. There were some headline grabbing captures like Canterbury but these tended to mask losses like Mansfield. These losses were early straws in the wind that signalled that Corbyn's Labour were losing support in the party's old heartlands. This development continued on steroids in 2019. 2017 was what I call a better than expected brave defeat. But still a defeat that resulted in the continuation of the Tory government. But the Tory government only continued courtesy of the DUP!
Had the Tories been restricted to the 7 seats won in Scotland in 2019, Theresa May would have been reduced to circa 310 seats - which would not have been enough!
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Dec 16, 2023 22:31:29 GMT
I can feel myself being inhabited by Harry Hill as I read the posts between c-a-r-f-r-e-w and pjw1961 . "Fiiiiight!" As carfrew doesn't participate in party politics, there is nothing to fight over. Those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. It always seems to end up like that with him. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2023 22:40:27 GMT
I bet robbiealive is glad he chose now to return from his year long sabbatical. See you next December, Robbie. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 16, 2023 22:40:40 GMT
I can feel myself being inhabited by Harry Hill as I read the posts between c-a-r-f-r-e-w and pjw1961 . "Fiiiiight!" As carfrew doesn't participate in party politics, there is nothing to fight over. Those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. I learnt quite a lot from that period. I was up at Oxford, sharing a house with a friend who was very into politics, and he suggested we stay up to watch the election. Unimpressed with the Labour manifesto, he had suggested to me and a few others that we vote SDP, but something gave me pause. Anyway we stayed up, and I was only beginning to learn about politics but it was obvious how the vote had been split. He learnt from it too, and became a Labour MP! (My introduction to cuckoo politics…) |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 16, 2023 22:56:44 GMT
Well, if my auntie had a pair of wotsits she'd be my uncle. Corbyn's Labour made a similarly modest recovery in Scotland in 2017 to the one May/Davidson achieved in that election but in the English and Welsh battlefields Labour made only modest gains against the Tories. There were some headline grabbing captures like Canterbury but these tended to mask losses like Mansfield. These losses were early straws in the wind that signalled that Corbyn's Labour were losing support in the party's old heartlands. This development continued on steroids in 2019. 2017 was what I call a better than expected brave defeat. But still a defeat that resulted in the continuation of the Tory government. But the Tory government only continued courtesy of the DUP!
Had the Tories been restricted to the 7 seats won in Scotland in 2019, Theresa May would have been reduced to circa 310 seats - which would not have been enough!
If the Tories had lost more seats than they did in 2017, Corbyn would have won. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2023 23:58:43 GMT
But the Tory government only continued courtesy of the DUP!
Had the Tories been restricted to the 7 seats won in Scotland in 2019, Theresa May would have been reduced to circa 310 seats - which would not have been enough!
If the Tories had lost more seats than they did in 2017, Corbyn would have won. Have you considered going into political analysis professionally Batty? |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Dec 17, 2023 0:28:47 GMT
But the Tory government only continued courtesy of the DUP!
Had the Tories been restricted to the 7 seats won in Scotland in 2019, Theresa May would have been reduced to circa 310 seats - which would not have been enough!
If the Tories had lost more seats than they did in 2017, Corbyn would have won. Corbyn would not have won, but the Tories would have lacked the support to carry on. |
|
|
|
Post by steamdrivenandy on Dec 17, 2023 7:22:27 GMT
If the Tories had lost more seats than they did in 2017, Corbyn would have won. Have you considered going into political analysis professionally Batty? He's got enough to do managing Britain's inland waterways, Aston Villa and the south west Midlands Labour Party. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,631
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on Dec 17, 2023 7:25:29 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 17, 2023 7:37:00 GMT
Have you considered going into political analysis professionally Batty? He's got enough to do managing Britain's inland waterways, Aston Villa and the south west Midlands Labour Party. ....and putting together a squad of players at Worcestershire CCC that is capable of holding their own in Division One of the County Championship next season. I'm on the case but this could prove to be my biggest challenge of them all. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,374
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 17, 2023 7:56:42 GMT
Around 1.3 million migrants came to the UK in the last year, 1.25 million of them came with the Government's approval
There were around 50,000 who came other than with a UK Government issued visa. Most of these will be successful in claiming asylum
Can anyone explain who 50,000 "Illegal migrants will overwhelm UK" but the 1,250,000 that Sunak and his Government want here won't?
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 17, 2023 8:04:47 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party.
Occasional visitors and lurkers to this site, like the redoubtable robbiealive for example, might be mistaken for thinking that all that matters, exists even, in British politics for now is angst-ridden debates about supposed factional tensions within His Majesty's Opposition, the Labour Party. Past betrayals and treachery too.
All those on the centre left and further leftwards on this forum are obsessed by it and talk about little else. Those few centre right and further rightwards posters we have, like nothing better than to dip their toes in the fractious interminable debate too. Committed Green voters, Reform UK sympathisers, even dyed in the wool abstainers who eschew all political activism and party affiliations seem obsessed with left/right divisions within Labour. They become very animated by it and talk of little else. The 2017 General Election is now a cause celebre.
But while all this angst and obsession is going on amongst, we should, in all humility, admit is a vanishingly small and wholly unrepresentative band of scribblers on this forum, we have a governing party, that are actually doing something, and affecting lives, split top to bottom with feuding and irreconcilable factions. A totally dysfunctional political entity exercising huge power, now including members of the Far Right amongst its number.
And yet, virtual silence on here. Our abstainers seem relaxed and unconcerned and hardly comment. The socialists amongst us, apart from the use of some Nazi metaphors from time to time that seem to apply to Starmer as well, say little about it. Our few Tory supporters on here gloss over it completely. Their obsession seems to be Armageddon awaiting us all. And it's sweeping in from Europe folks and it's coming to get Starmer.
All very odd but, hey ho, on to Michael Foot we go.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 17, 2023 8:11:21 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party. Occasional visitors and lurkers to this site, like the redoubtable robbiealive for example, might be mistaken for thinking that all that matters, exists even, in British politics for now is angst-ridden debates about supposed factional tensions within His Majesty's Opposition, the Labour Party. Past betrayals and treachery too. All those on the centre left and further leftwards on this forum are obsessed by it and talk about little else. Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up which leaves things like pointing out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to preserve/advance better the interests of the middle class. Besides it keeps you busy in your retirement. 👍 (Good morning by the way, was expecting you might be having a go at the left first thing!…) |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,571
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 17, 2023 8:14:08 GMT
Around 1.3 million migrants came to the UK in the last year, 1.25 million of them came with the Government's approval There were around 50,000 who came other than with a UK Government issued visa. Most of these will be successful in claiming asylum Can anyone explain who 50,000 "Illegal migrants will overwhelm UK" but the 1,250,000 that Sunak and his Government want here won't? It seems 'our Nige' is keen to talk about immigration too: www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/17/farage-plans-return-to-help-reform-uk-make-election-about-immigrationIt's all the right have got now. They've crashed the economy and wrecked public services, so its 'lets stir up some race hatred and hope no one notices the other stuff' time. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 17, 2023 8:29:31 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party. Occasional visitors and lurkers to this site, like the redoubtable robbiealive for example, might be mistaken for thinking that all that matters, exists even, in British politics for now is angst-ridden debates about supposed factional tensions within His Majesty's Opposition, the Labour Party. Past betrayals and treachery too. All those on the centre left and further leftwards on this forum are obsessed by it and talk about little else. Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up and someone has to point out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to advance the middle class. Besides it keeps you busy in your retirement. 👍 (Good morning by the way, I was expecting you might be having a go at the left first thing!…) Morning Carfers. I thought my early morning post might smoke you out. In the interests of middle class solidarity, us ex public schoolboys should really stick together. We mustn't open up another attack line for our sworn enemies on here to divide us Anyway, what's the problem with letting the Tories in? If they turn the taps on and drag Labour left then what's not to like? Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he? |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,352
|
Post by Danny on Dec 17, 2023 8:45:10 GMT
And we are staring down the barrel of the mother of all "geopolitical shocks" in UKraine -if USA cannot/will not sustain its debt financed support for Ukraine. The effects on Global economies and European Defence & Security are incalculable. Not sure about incalculable. It does mean the end of the massive peace dividend at the end of the cold war. Europe is still singularly disunited in its response to this. It is rather interesting how one theme of brexit was opposition to a european army. But if you had been a Russian strategist back in 2010 thinking about how Russia could be dominant in Europe, what you would want is to prevent the formation of a European army independent of the US. They certainly managed that one, plenty of stuff they did succeed with even if the actual invasion of Ukraine went a bit wrong. I'd have to suggest con have done virtually nothing to assist Ukraine beyond sending them old kit and helping them with training. Nothing involving real money, or ramping up our own military resources so we are in a position to help more, even just making more shells. Europe is significantly in the position that absent the US, we might be hard pressed to hold back the Russian army by ourselves at all. It is currently expanding and gaining experience, and dealing with all its duff equiment issues. If Putin can survive the economic shock, he will end up at the end of the Ukraine bash with far more powerful forces than he began and a nation willing to use them. Sanctions have failed. The current war seems likely to end in one of two ways, either Ukraine wins totally (not looking good), or a fixed border with or without formal truce. But that cannot last. Russia will either continue military expansion elsewhere, or come back for a third round in a few years. Or both. I a still not clear whether Russia is currently occupying the strategically important rare mineral resources of eastern Ukraine, which were likely one of its key objectives. While unexploited, they are apparnetly the best in Europe, and we are soon going to hit the problem of minerals needed for the renewables conversion to electric power throughout all coming from China. A joy then that an alternative becomes Russia. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,374
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Dec 17, 2023 9:05:00 GMT
If this is really the case (which I doubt)they need to get out more
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,352
|
Post by Danny on Dec 17, 2023 9:14:22 GMT
So just to check: your thesis is that unilateral nuclear disarmament was supported by 16% of the British population and Michael Foot was the least popular Labour opposition leader since WWII was due to a small faction of the Labour right creating the SDP (don't forget most stayed in Labour and Denis Healey was a notably loyal deputy to Foot) and nothing to do with left wing policies being unpopular with the actual electorate - despite the clear polling and electoral analysis evidence to that effect previously quoted. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/post-war-leaders-of-the-opposition/As I said at the beginning of this exchange, this is delusional stuff. If Labour had wanted to give themselves a chance of winning in 1983 they would have elected Healey as leader, ditched the left-wing policies and expelled Tony Benn. I think they would probably still have lost given the Falklands and the economic upturn, but not by a 144 majority. Think we might be missing something here, this all feels like hindsight. Margaret Thatcher was intensely disliked by many. Totally marmite, hated and loved. Union power was a massive issue, three day weeks, power cuts all being recent memories. Thatchers first goal was to cut union power and prevent that happening again, bearing in mind her predecessor Ted Heath failed. The nation was transformed in outlook, the unions lost. The far left now is a nebulous fairy tale threat, back then it epitomised unions halting industry in britain, think of it as union initiated lockdown with workers sent home, schools closed. In one sense Thatcher turned away from industrial Britain and gave up attempting to retain inudstry in Britain. Sure, it was under threat from abroad but Germany managed to kepp its industry. Thatcher chose to abandon it, close the mines and steel works, close the brick factories and stop building homes. Instead they turned towards the city of London to make money for the nation. And indeed it worked, we now have a city class which has persistently made money at least for itself, While manual industries have collapsed and that half of the nation has seen its wealth and incomes wither away. Yesterday I heard someone arguing for the Household Cost Index in place of the CPI (which replaced the RPI). In particular, it emphasises more typical expenditure of poor people. Currently running 2% higher than CPI, which is however used to uprate benefits etc. So we uprate benefit for the poor in line with the inflation experienced by the rich, which is lower than that experienced by the poor. Its yet another austerity cut. They continue apace.
Con are in trouble today for a number of reasons. The biggest is that brexit was accomplished, which issue had bought them enough votes to get into government for the last 13 years. It has not ended well, which could have sustained them in power, but is increasingly seen as a mistake, which could yet roll on to being regarded as a disaster. But it served its purpose.
The second is their fundamental policy of transferring wealth to the rich. Thats the opposite of their stated aim, to make the poor wealthy through trickle down from the rich. The problem is economic theory agrees a society where wealth is equally distributed operates more efficiently than one where theere are extremes of wealth. In aiming for one with extremes of wealth, they have systematically undermined our growth capacity. Not that growth is a particularly good goal, either. The current economic model calls for in built obsolescence. Sure, some things like technology might be reasonably replced every few years because the capability of a new item is much greater than an old one. But in many fields this isnt true. This 7 year old laptop is fine in performance, it may get physically broken but it does what I need. Yet microsoft is trying to make it obsolete by refusing to update its operating system. Homes...most homes are fundamentally sound, and yet it is said local planners did more to harm London than all the efforts of the Luftwaffer. We are still preferentially knocking down existing buildings to create new ones, which in certain ways are distinctly inferior. Thats incredibly wasteful. I pointed out recently risises in housing costs over 50 years could be regarded as equivalent to an income tax increase in the region of 20-40%. Thats deliberate policy, short circuiting the tax system and sending money directly from poor to rich.
Somehow 'the left' have allowed the national debate to switch away from the left meaning more wealth for the majority of the nation as opposed to the minority. The labour party came into existence because it represented a majority of the population. It has allowed that to slip away from it in the propaganda war. Corbyn wasnt wrong, any program he had presided over would have benefited the majority of the nation. Inherently populist. But not the vested interests of the wealthy.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,352
|
Post by Danny on Dec 17, 2023 9:21:52 GMT
I think the 2017 Labour defeat looks better than it was because of the marked improvement in the party's support during the campaign from a very low base. Opinion polls and local election results pointed to a catastrophe for Labour but there was a surge during the campaign when May's complete ineptitude as a campaigner almost derailed the Tories. I dont think May was inept, rather she was honest. She wanted the election to be all about Brexit and to win a mandate for hard brexit, which was not justified simply on the referendum result. She also had a side issue of tackling under funding for social care, and probably by inference for the NHS. I dare say con understand perfectly well under funding the NHS is their enduring achilles heel. A more dishonest politician might have done better by hiding all this. In the end she got her answer, no mandate for hard brexit and no agreement on the care funding problem. Its a shame there was also no mandate for soft brexit, or any particular form of brexit at all but it still went forward. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Dec 17, 2023 9:31:35 GMT
Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up and someone has to point out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to advance the middle class. Besides it keeps you busy in your retirement. 👍 (Good morning by the way, I was expecting you might be having a go at the left first thing!…) Morning Carfers. I thought my early morning post might smoke you out. In the interests of middle class solidarity, us ex public schoolboys should really stick together. We mustn't open up another attack line for our sworn enemies on here to divide us Anyway, what's the problem with letting the Tories in? If they turn the taps on and drag Labour left then what's not to like? Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he? Don't think I've seen Mr C attack the tories once while quoting endlessly from the Telegraph. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 17, 2023 9:43:08 GMT
Well others have got the anti-Tory stuff sewn up and someone has to point out the ways you guys might let the Tories in rather than the left, in order to advance the middle class. Besides it keeps you busy in your retirement. 👍 (Good morning by the way, I was expecting you might be having a go at the left first thing!…) Morning Carfers. I thought my early morning post might smoke you out. In the interests of middle class solidarity, us ex public schoolboys should really stick together. We mustn't open up another attack line for our sworn enemies on here to divide us Anyway, what's the problem with letting the Tories in? If they turn the taps on and drag Labour left then what's not to like? Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he? it’s usually quite tranquil on here first thing. Re: public school, state school seemed to offer more solidarity for us somewhat-foreign folk. Did you go to state school at all batters? It’s a tad late for the right to be making the taps argument now, it would have been an idea to do it before Tories got in again in 2019! But regarding Tories, as you may know I’m not here so much to press people to support one thing or another, it’s more about trying to learn more about it all… |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
Member is Online
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Dec 17, 2023 9:45:11 GMT
Morning Carfers. I thought my early morning post might smoke you out. In the interests of middle class solidarity, us ex public schoolboys should really stick together. We mustn't open up another attack line for our sworn enemies on here to divide us Anyway, what's the problem with letting the Tories in? If they turn the taps on and drag Labour left then what's not to like? Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he? Don't think I've seen Mr C attack the tories once while quoting endlessly from the Telegraph. Good to see you’re not judging or anything, but oh man, I used to do LOADS of anti-Tory posts in the earlier days of Austerity. Ask colin , lol. And about the vans etc. (wasn’t overly impressed with Clegg either). (my first ever post was a ten-or-twelve paragraph anti-Tory epic that AW rapidly vaped, but not before a couple of the more blairite had objected a little to my post!) I am still critical at times now, for example regarding tech-related policy as it gets a bit neglected, e.g. for making investments then selling them off. Doing rubbish contracts that keep leccy prices high etc., not doing enough energy subsidy… some of the pandemic response, or lack of it… |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Dec 17, 2023 10:03:44 GMT
Morning Carfers. I thought my early morning post might smoke you out. In the interests of middle class solidarity, us ex public schoolboys should really stick together. We mustn't open up another attack line for our sworn enemies on here to divide us Anyway, what's the problem with letting the Tories in? If they turn the taps on and drag Labour left then what's not to like? Johnson did left wing stuff, didn't he? it’s usually quite tranquil on here first thing. Re: public school, state school seemed to offer more solidarity for us somewhat-foreign folk. Did you go to state school at all batters? It’s a tad late for the right to be making the taps argument now, it would have been an idea to do it before Tories got in again in 2019! But regarding Tories, as you may know I’m not here so much to press people to support one thing of another, it’s more about trying to learn more about it all… I attended a state school in Redditch for three years before being sent off to Catholic prep and public schools for nine years. 25% state, 75% private was my school education. Probably like you, I had zero choice on any of it. As I think I've told you before, the first time I had any control over my education, I pulled out of my Oxbridge entrance examinations and chose to go to Bristol instead. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 17, 2023 10:34:13 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party. , we cant win with you can we! I post one commenting on the Tories and you object to it and make it about lefties and Tories ganging up on Saint Starmer. Now on a site where an overwhelmingly (approx 90%) of the comments and posters are explicitly anti-Tory you accuse us of being soft on them!
I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide. This is based on the widely held assumption that the Tories are so woeful and reached the point where the electorate has stopped listening to them and wants them out. No right-wing posters are willing to put up any defence of the Tories on here to engage with, frankly because they don't have any argument to put and most of them have stopped posting. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Dec 17, 2023 10:41:16 GMT
Maybe I'm being too optimistic but I sense a tiny glimmer of light in the tories and their reliable regurgitators in the press appearing to go all out on immigration.
Not long ago there were indications of them wanting to conduct a performative,more general 'war on woke' focussing on transgender and identity issues. Maybe it's too soon but that seems to have been abandoned hopefully due to them having realised what polls had been telling us, namely that no one out there gives a shit.
So now they focus unrelentingly on immigration as the last thing standing, a topic on which surveys show they are already very dimly regarded and where a voter exercised by this topic might well ask why after so many years they hadn't something to reduce it already. They're doomed of course but they still have plenty of scope for using their poisonous rhetoric to encourage a minority to attack people and so create real world harm in their desperation to hold onto the votes of the ignorant, narrow minded and downright unpleasant.
|
|
|
|
Post by jib on Dec 17, 2023 10:43:35 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party. , we cant win with you can we! I post one commenting on the Tories and you object to it and make it about lefties and Tories ganging up on Saint Starmer. Now on a site where an overwhelmingly (approx 90%) of the comments and posters are explicitly anti-Tory you accuse us of being soft on them!
I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide. This is based on the widely held assumption that the Tories are so woeful and reached the point where the electorate has stopped listening to them and wants them out. No right-wing posters are willing to put up any defence of the Tories on here to engage with, frankly because they don't have any argument to put and most of them have stopped posting. The Conservative Party is sure in for one hell of a civil war, although a thorough pruning by the electorate will probably focus its attention on its "core" Shires priorities and the adventures beyond the Red Wall will be a distant memory. Will Sunak survive to the election? 50 / 50 I'd say, his whole appointment was a stitch up to stop BoJo. At the moment, Labour just need to keep in the deep water and avoid being drawn towards shore by Tory wedge diversion. A large victory seems inevitable. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Dec 17, 2023 10:45:45 GMT
As a stickler for trying to maintain Tim Davie like levels of balance on this forum, I'd like to focus this morning on the factionally-riven British Conservative Party. , we cant win with you can we! I post one commenting on the Tories and you object to it and make it about lefties and Tories ganging up on Saint Starmer. Now on a site where an overwhelmingly (approx 90%) of the comments and posters are explicitly anti-Tory you accuse us of being soft on them!
I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide. This is based on the widely held assumption that the Tories are so woeful and reached the point where the electorate has stopped listening to them and wants them out. No right-wing posters are willing to put up any defence of the Tories on here to engage with, frankly because they don't have any argument to put and most of them have stopped posting. "I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide" It's not over until 10pm on polling day, until then the tories remain a dangerous enemy and will do after that, possibly more so. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Dec 17, 2023 11:06:17 GMT
Oi crossbat11 , we cant win with you can we! I post one commenting on the Tories and you object to it and make it about lefties and Tories ganging up on Saint Starmer. Now on a site where an overwhelmingly (approx 90%) of the comments and posters are explicitly anti-Tory you accuse us of being soft on them!
I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide. This is based on the widely held assumption that the Tories are so woeful and reached the point where the electorate has stopped listening to them and wants them out. No right-wing posters are willing to put up any defence of the Tories on here to engage with, frankly because they don't have any argument to put and most of them have stopped posting. "I would postulate that the focus on Labour at the moment is reasonable as most indicators are that they will win, possible with a landslide" It's not over until 10pm on polling day, until then the tories remain a dangerous enemy and will do after that, possibly more so. |
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on Dec 17, 2023 11:18:10 GMT
Latest Opininium Labour lead sits at 13 points. • Labour 40% (-3) • Conservatives 27% (+1) • Lib Dems 11% (n/c) • SNP 3% (n/c) • Greens 7% (+1) • Reform 9% (n/c) I can see the planners in Conservative Central Office now... Staffer 1: "Opinium are the ones who have already factored in the 'swing back' the closer to an election we get, so it's like showing the result!" Staffer 2: "And...? I'm not quite with you here." S1: "It's obvious. We've gained 4 points in a month. So we project forward 4 months and we're now ahead!" S2: "Aha! So we'll definitely win a May General Election!!" |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,571
Member is Online
|
Post by pjw1961 on Dec 17, 2023 11:48:29 GMT
Maybe I'm being too optimistic but I sense a tiny glimmer of light in the tories and their reliable regurgitators in the press appearing to go all out on immigration. Not long ago there were indications of them wanting to conduct a performative,more general 'war on woke' focussing on transgender and identity issues. Maybe it's too soon but that seems to have been abandoned hopefully due to them having realised what polls had been telling us, namely that no one out there gives a shit. So now they focus unrelentingly on immigration as the last thing standing, a topic on which surveys show they are already very dimly regarded and where a voter exercised by this topic might well ask why after so many years they hadn't something to reduce it already. They're doomed of course but they still have plenty of scope for using their poisonous rhetoric to encourage a minority to attack people and so create real world harm in their desperation to hold onto the votes of the ignorant, narrow minded and downright unpleasant. Your analysis is probably right, but it leaves a bad taste as a political tactic. There was a very nasty uptick in racist incidents after Farage's last dog-whistle campaign in 2016. |
|
