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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 30, 2023 16:23:12 GMT
Extraordinary outpouring of respect, affection and grief, from right across the political spectrum, for Alistair Darling. All are united in their recognition of his decency, diligence and sense of public service. I was particularly moved by a tribute from one of Osborne's financial team who bore testimony to the deep affection, respect and loyalty that they discovered there was for Darling throughout the Treasury when they took over in 2010. Apparently Darling was extraordinarily helpful to them as he handed over the reins of power. He said there was a lesson for all politicians to learn and it was a simple one. Be more like Alistair Darling. I think history will be kind to Alistair Darling. I hope so, anyway. I'm enormously saddened by his death I have his book "Back from the brink" about the financial crisis. Alongside Vince Cable's "The Storm" it gives the best insights into the politics around the crisis.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2023 16:48:38 GMT
whereas Hancock represents a more modern age, where self interest and following the prevailing winds seem to be the order of the day. He really didnt come across like that at the enquiry today. Actually he was fighting hard the prevailing wind for what he saw was right. Though obviously, I think the whole approach was wrong, he didnt originate it. Other witnesses have described Hancock as a serial fantasist and liar even while in office. In his testimony, as in the book he wrote about the pandemic, he is trying to paint himself in the best possible light. The question is therefore do you actually believe his testimony?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2023 17:03:16 GMT
PC Broadhead the officer involved in the taser incident and accused of gross professional misconduct has been cleared of all allegations. "Commander Jon Savell said: “This is an extremely rare and unusual case. In the immediate days after the incident a senior officer visited the address to apologise for the trauma caused to the girl and her family. Although no misconduct has been found, we repeat this apology today. “The panel found that PC Broadhead did not breach professional standards based on the information known to him at the time and the clear threat presented, and that he had acted in accordance with his training for the safety of all those involved. “Tasers provide officers with the ability to de-escalate situations and protect others from harm. We welcome scrutiny around the use of Taser and are working hard to engage with communities to involve them in monitoring how we use this tactic." The IOPC also passed the allegations on to the CPS who have recommended no case to answer. To avoid unnecessary confusion my opinion is I almost certainly would not have tasered the girl and would have endeavoured to disarm her directly if necessary, however I also don't think the officer acted inappropriately by choosing to reduce the danger of injury by using his taser in compliance with guidance. In other words he acted in compliance with advice and I wouldn't have! Woeful, laughable and entirely predictable verdict.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 17:42:34 GMT
nickp"Woeful, laughable and entirely predictable verdict" Says the man who is a knowledge vacuum regarding the details of the event. I'm sure you know better than the Independent office for police conduct and the crown prosecution service who do know what happened.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2023 18:08:05 GMT
nickp"Woeful, laughable and entirely predictable verdict" Says the man who is a knowledge vacuum regarding the details of the event. I'm sure you know better than the Independent office for police conduct and the crown prosecution service who do know what happened. Tasering children is wrong and we aren’t even talking about a muscular 17 year old. Anybody with any memory at all can remember similar acquittals which proved to be laughable. The cop who ran that op which shot the the perfectly innocent Brazilian then lied through their teeth about it ended up running the Met until she finally got the long warranted sack
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2023 18:09:09 GMT
You are just the usual ex-cop apologist.
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Post by alec on Nov 30, 2023 18:21:30 GMT
Another quite remarkable decline in covid metrics today in the UK. Despite the fact that JN.1 now accounts for probably around 30% of UK cases, hospital cases continue to fall. This puts us well out on a limb with most other countries, where cases are generally rising, and rising pretty rapidly in many areas. Hospital cases rising in many places also, with signs that the JN.1 wave might be the worst of 2023.
Other data out today suggests that JN.1 really does have a big growth advantage, with some interpretations putting this on a par with the first BA.1 Omicron wave, in terms of speed of growth. Others believe that partial community scale immunity will blunt it's progress, at least in terms of severe cases, and the truth is probably going to be somewhere in between. Having said that, in the Isle de France region, JN.1 achieved dominance (>50% of cases) last week, and we're now seeing very sharp increases in A&E visits and hospitalisations. Early data suggests that is more pathogenic (more severe) although there was some better news with some lab analysis showing that existing vaccines still had some neutralising effect on JN.1.
The USA seems destined for a pretty miserable Christmas, with an upswing already underway and JN.1 anticipated dominance in the next couple of weeks. That likely suggests a very steep rise in cases. In the UK, it's much less clear. If a new high growth variant achieves dominance while cases are declining, the wave tends to be slower and broader, but if it coincides with a period of growth in cases, it gets pretty explosive. It's not clear exactly where we are at the moment, but it does seem very likely that the festive period will coincide with rising cases of a new variant. Quite how that translates into actual numbers is very unclear at present.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2023 18:45:08 GMT
Its that day of the week again:
CAMDEN LBC; Highgate (Grn resigned) Candidates: FEYESA, Wakjira Fekadu (Conservatives) LEMAN, Tricia (Labour) MONK, Farrell (Liberal Democrat) RUSSELL, Lorna Jane (Green)
2022: Grn 1967 (elected), 1460, 929; Lab 1898 (elected), 1809 (elected), 1527; Con 431, 403, 380; LD 206, 188, 172
It will be seen that the Green who resigned ran a considerable distance ahead of the other Greens in what is otherwise a Labour area. Could be an interesting fight between the two parties.
DURHAM UA; Dawdon (Lab died) Candidates: ARTHUR, Bob (Independent) RAYNER, Josh (Conservative) VILA, Roger Francois (Liberal Democrat) WATSON, June (Labour)
2021: Lab 1043, 1035; Seaham Community Party 689, 542; Con 333
Not as simple as it looks, as Bob Arthur is apparently a well-known and popular local independent and in a by-election context may be in with a chance of taking the ward.
NORTH YORKSHIRE UA; Sowerby & Topcliffe (Grn resigned) Candidates: ELDERS, Dave (Conservative) EXOTIC, Stew (Official Monster Raving Loony Party) HALL, John Philip (Yorkshire Party) LAW, John Timothy (Green) SLADDEN, Dan (Liberal Democrat) TOMLINSON, Helen Kathleen (Labour)
2022: Grn 1091; Con 1010
Unless the Conservative vote collapses for other reasons they are likely to take this. The Green just scraped home (51.9 to 48.1) last time but this time will face Labour and Lib Dem opponents, so splitting the anti-Tory vote.
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Post by jib on Nov 30, 2023 18:47:14 GMT
You are just the usual ex-cop apologist. I'm not a cop, I know a few though, but to be fair to my friend steve, I suspect he was on the "radical" side of the Met, and good for him. I always find organisational politics fascinating, and the Met must be several PhD's worth of psychological intrigue.
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Post by graham on Nov 30, 2023 19:02:59 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity.
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Post by shevii on Nov 30, 2023 19:21:12 GMT
pjw1961Greens saying "very close" in Highgate which as we know on the GOTV could mean anything- based on twitter posts they seem to have been working it very hard. Sian Berry, who is hoping to replace Caroline Lucas in Brighton, did indeed have a high personal vote having originally got in on a split vote but consistently come top ever since so unclear if a generally Labour ward can be a hold or not for the Greens. If it was it would be a good hold given the other Green candidates haven't made it.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2023 19:22:03 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. It is interesting to ponder that if Keir Starmer were to become Prime Minister in October 2024, which many of us still see as the likeliest date, he would be aged 62 on forming his first ministry. Here's a list from 1940 in age order: Winston Churchill – 65 years old James Callaghan – 64 years old Clement Attlee – 62 years old Harold Macmillan – 62 years old Alec Douglas-Home – 60 years old Theresa May – 59 years old Anthony Eden – 57 years old Gordon Brown – 56 years old Boris Johnson – 55 years old Edward Heath – 53 years old Margaret Thatcher – 53 years old Harold Wilson – 48 years old John Major – 47 years old Liz Truss – 47 years old Tony Blair – 43 years old David Cameron – 43 years old Rishi Sunak – 42 years old
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 30, 2023 20:07:31 GMT
"You are just the usual ex-cop apologist."
You are entirely predictable and of course talking complete bollocks.
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Post by johntel on Nov 30, 2023 20:12:22 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. It is interesting to ponder that if Keir Starmer were to become Prime Minister in October 2024, which many of us still see as the likeliest date, he would be aged 62 on forming his first ministry. Here's a list from 1940 in age order: Winston Churchill – 65 years old James Callaghan – 64 years old Clement Attlee – 62 years old Harold Macmillan – 62 years old Alec Douglas-Home – 60 years old Theresa May – 59 years old Anthony Eden – 57 years old Gordon Brown – 56 years old Boris Johnson – 55 years old Edward Heath – 53 years old Margaret Thatcher – 53 years old Harold Wilson – 48 years old John Major – 47 years old Liz Truss – 47 years old Tony Blair – 43 years old David Cameron – 43 years old Rishi Sunak – 42 years old Maybe another example of someone becoming more conservative as they got older?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,318
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 30, 2023 20:22:56 GMT
Ardent readers of my posts, in the unlikely event such folk exist, may recall that I had a hand in drafting the Labour proposals for the new Essex County Council division boundaries in Braintree District. The boundary commission initial report has arrived and, pleasingly, in every case the commission has accepted the Labour suggestions and rejected those of the Council/Conservatives. If this remains the position, Labour would have a decent shot at winning three of the eight divisions in a good year, which is the maximum reasonably achievable.
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Post by graham on Nov 30, 2023 21:45:04 GMT
Survation has come up with this - perhaps slightly surprising - estimate as to the likely impact of the new boundaries on the 2019 result.
Con 367 (+2) Lab 205 (+3) LD 9 (-2) SNP 48 (-) Grn 1 (-)
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Post by alec on Nov 30, 2023 22:06:40 GMT
graham - "Survation has come up with this - perhaps slightly surprising - estimate as to the likely impact of the new boundaries on the 2019 result." Surprising indeed. Something has certainly shifted in the proposals.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 30, 2023 23:23:56 GMT
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Post by mercian on Nov 30, 2023 23:46:01 GMT
The difference however is in the UK we don't have a fascist pathological liar convicted rapist and fraudster on bail for 91 felonies and who wants to be a dictator running for head of state. Thank goodness for the monarchy eh?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2023 23:52:47 GMT
"You are just the usual ex-cop apologist." You are entirely predictable and of course talking complete bollocks. “Of course” … hahaha! So you’ve won the argument and tasering a 20 year old girl is okay. What is the fucking point?
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Post by mercian on Nov 30, 2023 23:58:48 GMT
Btw mercian electoral calculus estimates around 30 lib dems seats with no increase in vote share primarily because in the 20 odd closest seats where lib dems came second to the Tories the Lib dems vote share has remained more or less unchanged since 2019 while the Tories have collapsed, it's an almost unique occasion where first past the post might assist lib dems rather than reduce their chances. If as I think is possible the vote share during a general election campaign does rise to around 15% this actually would probably result in a parliamentary representation closer to 50 all bar one gain being from the Tories. It will be interesting to see who's right. I say if LibDems VI in the GE is 11% they will get 11 seats. At 15% my estimate would be 40. My 15% estimate could be seen as essentially the same as yours, so it's all on if they stay on 11%. If they do, a pint says I'm closer.
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Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 0:13:04 GMT
We don't currently want to be Tory lite , I can't speak for a time before I was a member ,however electorally profitable being soft right might be. Anyway Starmer appears to have parked his tanks on that particular lawn. That's the Lib Dems problem really and why the coalition was so damaging because it's very hard for them to present as a soft left party after what happened, especially when their current leader was part of it all. So in a political climate where we have the most right wing Tory and Labour parties in modern times the Lib Dems natural position probably is to the left of Labour but the votes are more likely to come from soft Tories. That's interesting. So if we have the most right wing Tory and Labour parties in modern times and LibDem votes are most likely to come from soft Tories, who are the real lefties (Corbynites etc) going to vote for? Do they 1) Hold their noses and vote for Starmer 2) Vote for Green or TUSC or similar 3) Stay at home Of course in real life it will be a mixture of the three but it will be very interesting to see what the majority do. There was a debate here recently between moderates like crossbat11 who wants to just get the Tories out and worry about policy later, and purists who'd rather risk losing than compromise their principles. I wonder how many voters feel the same?
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Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 0:23:34 GMT
PC Broadhead the officer involved in the taser incident and accused of gross professional misconduct has been cleared of all allegations. "Commander Jon Savell said: “This is an extremely rare and unusual case. In the immediate days after the incident a senior officer visited the address to apologise for the trauma caused to the girl and her family. Although no misconduct has been found, we repeat this apology today. “The panel found that PC Broadhead did not breach professional standards based on the information known to him at the time and the clear threat presented, and that he had acted in accordance with his training for the safety of all those involved. “Tasers provide officers with the ability to de-escalate situations and protect others from harm. We welcome scrutiny around the use of Taser and are working hard to engage with communities to involve them in monitoring how we use this tactic." The IOPC also passed the allegations on to the CPS who have recommended no case to answer. To avoid unnecessary confusion my opinion is I almost certainly would not have tasered the girl and would have endeavoured to disarm her directly if necessary, however I also don't think the officer acted inappropriately by choosing to reduce the danger of injury by using his taser in compliance with guidance. In other words he acted in compliance with advice and I wouldn't have! I've seen the footage now, and though it all happened very fast and it's arguable that the officer could have acted differently he didn't do anything wrong. I think I saw that this happened in 2019. It's terrible that this has been hanging over the poor chap for years. The justice system needs to speed up.
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Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 0:31:38 GMT
RIP Alistair Darling - only 70 as well. Yes I always respected him. He seemed very calm and sensible. I think the mild Scottish accent helped - to me it somehow conveys the impression of authority and experience.
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Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 0:44:21 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. Most of those were a long time ago. Life expectancy now at 69 is that you live to 86. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2023 0:51:27 GMT
I am very saddened to hear of Alistair Darling's passing . The fulsome tributes across the political spectrum speak volumes as to the great decency of the man. I don't quite go along with suggestions that he has died 'young'. He was 70 - just a few months older than myself. Many will see that as a 'reasonable' age, and whilst he could have lived for a further decade or so , this is far removed from John Smith suddenly dying at 55 - or Donald Dewar at 61 - or indeed Robin Cook at 59.Others would cite the examples of Hugh Gaitskell having died at 56 , Iain Macleod at 57 and Anthony Crosland at 58. Perhaps we forget how many people do still pass away at circa 70 - or indeed fall well short of it in terms of longevity. Most of those were a long time ago. Life expectancy now at 69 is that you live to 86. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07Didn’t work for Alastair.
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Post by mercian on Dec 1, 2023 0:53:52 GMT
Last post tonight I promise:- LibDem win Sowerby and Topcliffe Lab hold Durham Green hold Camden
@fecklessmiser That was my point - he did die young, contrary to what another poster said. I wish I didn't have to laboriously explain simple matters to morons all the time. 😁
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 1, 2023 6:13:34 GMT
Survation has come up with this - perhaps slightly surprising - estimate as to the likely impact of the new boundaries on the 2019 result. Con 367 (+2) Lab 205 (+3) LD 9 (-2) SNP 48 (-) Grn 1 (-) They created three extra seats?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 1, 2023 6:18:55 GMT
It's terrible that this has been hanging over the poor chap for years. The justice system needs to speed up. Government believes the best way to get the right result when people are accused of crimes is to send people to jail first and then not hold the trial.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Dec 1, 2023 6:43:46 GMT
Thats a curious 'feel good' indicator in that it gives what is presumably the average life expectancy at given age, but then it gives a spread of 1 in 4 and 1 in 10 reaching higher ages, but does not give equivalent estimates for people living shorter, implying 86 is a minimum! What might be very interesting instead of those less likely outcomes would have been to state life expectancy if you are in good, bad, or average health. Or if you have common chronic health conditions. Not so feelgood, however. Something like pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25023914/"Results: Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. " Heres another one pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24247672/"Results: Persons with higher levels of comorbidity had shorter life expectancies, whereas those with no comorbid conditions, including very elderly persons, had favorable life expectancies relative to an average person of the same chronological age. The estimated life expectancy at age 75 years was approximately 3 years longer for persons with no comorbid conditions and approximately 3 years shorter for those with high comorbidity relative to the average U.S. population. " Now thats rather interesting when you consider more than half the people who died in the spring 2020 covid wave never went to hospital, and most of those died in care homes. The total number of hospital admissions in that wave with covid was only half the number who died and a good proportion of those must have recovered. Which also raised the question whether, rather than this being because hospitals refused to accept people with covid from care homes, it was actually beause people in care homes who get seriously ill as a matter of policy are never sent to hospital, rather its considered preferable they die without the stress of being moved etc. (not forgetting more than half the people in care homes have altzheimers)
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