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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2023 11:30:40 GMT
Back to polling. I've just noticed that we haven't had a TechneUK poll since the one at the beginning of this month (fieldwork 2-3 August). I hope that this doesn't mean that Techne have ditched political polling.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 11:33:52 GMT
oldnat "I note that none of the points of yours that I requested elucidation on, have yet been explained. Is that because you were making statements that lacked foundation - " No it's because I cannae be arsed to enter into a discussion where you've already decided that you're right.
Yours is a novel approach. To be willing only to debate with those who are unsure of their position does suggest that you may have few arguments to support your statements.
Incidentally, I think my Sunak reference previously may have been a little too abstruse for you -
nation.cymru/news/british-can-be-used-as-shorthand-for-english-suggests-rishi-sunak/ |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 11:40:26 GMT
Screw Putin’s ‘red lines’. He has no right to them, anymore than Milosevic or Bin Laden did. In banging on about them all we do is aggrandise him and encourage him to make threats he knows many in the West will get knock-kneed about. A direct military confrontation with Russia would make me nervous but I would welcome it because it would be the right thing to do and I know the Russians who are good at talking but not doing would fold like a crumpled piece of paper. It would set a precedent for the future that this sort of international anarchy and state terrorism will not be tolerated from anyone, anywhere including China.They will not use nuclear weapons as they’re not suicidal and are too unprincipled to risk Armageddon. They are in reality cowards who rely on our fear to continue their crimes. Many still seem to have some latent respect or awe for the Russian state as if it were actually the successor to the Soviet Union. It is no such thing. It’s nothing but a criminal organisation writ large and appeasing it’s nihilistic crimes is to appease the worst in humanity.
Many analyst were arguing that this summer offered the the best chance for Ukraine (a window where the Russians would be weaker), where the west fundamentally went wrong was not providing the Ukrainians with means to establish air superiority (they thought missiles would be enough).
Thought I might add to this a little, because there has been something of a range war going on, and have thus been checking ranges. The missiles didn’t really work out as a defence, partly because of range issues. The fighter jets could sit back 40km and lob glide bombs at the Ukrainian artillery, and the longer-range Ukrainian air defence systems couldn’t do too much about it as were needed to defend the cities. Also they are not very mobile and are vulnerable nearer to the front line. Meanwhile attack helicopters were also hanging back 15km, out of range of the man-portable air defence, and taking out Ukrainian mine-clearing kit and tanks. The missile range of the Soviet fighters of the Ukrainian air force is only a bit more than this, and of course it means coming close to the front lines, so countering the helicopters is problematic. This is where the F16s would be so useful, because they can fire missiles from 100km away, to clear out the opposing fighters and helicopters. (That said, Ukraine does have some man-portable air defence with a greater range now, and have fashioned a more mobile medium range missile defence system out of other parts, which might be helping). \armchair |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 11:43:47 GMT
oldnatThere's only one of us obsessed with the minutiae of national identity. And it isn't me. To imply that I'm somehow equating British nationalism with English or Scottish nationalism and support any of them is laughable. Frankly I couldn't give a toss about nationalism of any form. But this is a minority view and we have to deal with the world as it is not how we wish it were. It's not a debate when one party has already decided the conclusion.I It's a monologue. The sooner nation states ceased to exist the better, including England,Scotland and the United kingdom.
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Post by jib on Aug 22, 2023 11:55:29 GMT
oldnat There's only one of us obsessed with the minutiae of national identity. And it isn't me. To imply that I'm somehow equating British nationalism with English or Scottish nationalism and support any of them is laughable. Frankly I couldn't give a toss about nationalism of any form. But this is a minority view and we have to deal with the world as it is not how we wish it were. It's not a debate when one party has already decided the conclusion.I It's a monologue. The sooner nation states ceased to exist the better, including England,Scotland and the United kingdom. You've clearly exceeded your RDA of crunchy nuts today. Or maybe just something to do with the monthly cycle of the moon. Who knows with a Lib Dem. Is that another policy - f*** nation states? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 12:21:22 GMT
This is where the F16s would be so useful, because they can fire missiles from 100km away, to clear out the opposing fighters and helicopters. Would be -when they get them:- Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year, ( ie 2025) according to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen . In the meantime they have to cope with this :- "3:42PM Ukraine's elite armoured brigade targeted by air strikes An elite Ukrainian unit equipped with British Challenger 2 tanks is being hit with “five airstrikes a day” since being deployed on the southern front. The 82nd air assault brigade, which also boasts German Marder vehicles and American Stryker armoured personnel carriers, has been relentlessly targeted since images emerged of it in action last week. Hanna Maliar, a deputy Ukrainian defence minister, said: “The price of the headlines about where the 82nd brigade was moved in the south is five airstrikes on the brigade per day.” Commentators believe the Nato-equipped force was meant to exploit holes in Russian lines, entering the battlefield for the first time amid reports that Ukraine had reached the village of Robotyne. However, Ms Maliar’s statement suggests it is struggling to make headway in Zaporizhzhia against a constant barrage from Moscow’s forces." DT Live blog. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 12:28:55 GMT
oldnat There's only one of us obsessed with the minutiae of national identity. And it isn't me. To imply that I'm somehow equating British nationalism with English or Scottish nationalism and support any of them is laughable. Frankly I couldn't give a toss about nationalism of any form. But this is a minority view and we have to deal with the world as it is not how we wish it were. It's not a debate when one party has already decided the conclusion.I It's a monologue. The sooner nation states ceased to exist the better, including England,Scotland and the United kingdom.
Using terms accurately usually helps. Since neither England, Scotland or the UK are "nation states", your last sentence demonstrates a lack of understanding of the nature of political units. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 12:41:03 GMT
The Tories should carry on campaigning to leave the ECHR! (though polls which ask about respondents being "more" or "less" likely to vote for a particular party are not accurate guides to VI).
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2023 12:42:17 GMT
Australian study shows that greening even small urban areas improves biodiversity. www.theguardian.com/science/2023/aug/22/melbourne-urban-greening-benefits-insect-speciesIncreasing the diversity of native plants in a single urban green space resulted in a sevenfold increase in the number of insect species after three years, Australian researchers have found.
Existing research largely involved observational studies where urban greening had already taken place and “scientists come after the fact to see what’s happened”, said the study’s lead author, Dr Luis Mata of the University of Melbourne and a lead research scientist at Cesar Australia.
The greening initiative was conducted on a small 195 sq m plot of land in Melbourne, on a site adjacent to a major road.
“It was conducted in a very densely urbanised area, completely surrounded by streets and relatively tall buildings, and with limited access to surrounding green space,” Mata said.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 12:42:27 GMT
oldnatThey would be if they were independent countries! That's what you were discussing, get a grip. Meanwhile The cult of maga goes from depth to depth youtu.be/2rZ7Y3KYpbU
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 13:09:02 GMT
Tough crowd those Londoners. Opening up the tabs shows an Inner/Outer split for some folks (but not Rishi). Susan Hall is a bit like Ed Davey (ie a 'who?') and usually as folks get to know someone they lean to partisan lines or 'unfavourable' (ie her net +1 isn't something to go on)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 13:11:06 GMT
This is where the F16s would be so useful, because they can fire missiles from 100km away, to clear out the opposing fighters and helicopters. Would be -when they get them:- Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year, ( ie 2025) according to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen . In the meantime they have to cope with this :- "3:42PM Ukraine's elite armoured brigade targeted by air strikes An elite Ukrainian unit equipped with British Challenger 2 tanks is being hit with “five airstrikes a day” since being deployed on the southern front. The 82nd air assault brigade, which also boasts German Marder vehicles and American Stryker armoured personnel carriers, has been relentlessly targeted since images emerged of it in action last week. Hanna Maliar, a deputy Ukrainian defence minister, said: “The price of the headlines about where the 82nd brigade was moved in the south is five airstrikes on the brigade per day.” Commentators believe the Nato-equipped force was meant to exploit holes in Russian lines, entering the battlefield for the first time amid reports that Ukraine had reached the village of Robotyne. However, Ms Maliar’s statement suggests it is struggling to make headway in Zaporizhzhia against a constant barrage from Moscow’s forces." DT Live blog. Yes, there are the arguments that the delay might be due to fears of escalation, or wanting to drain their opponents rather than win quickly. There are a couple of other things though. The west must surely realise by now that they have little alternative but to supply fighter jets to the Ukraine, much as they are increasingly supplying other weapons. Because it’s no longer so tenable for the Ukraine to get new aircraft (or even spare parts for existing aircraft) from the previous source. But there can be a variety of things to slow things down in practice. Read some analysts say they are eventually going to need two or three hundred fighter jets, the number you would expect for a country of their size in their position. That’s a lot to supply all at once, so they will likely arrive bit-by-bit, not least because training is a big issue. Some things, like downing cruise missiles, might be learned relatively quickly, but close air support is much more demanding. On top of this, training the maintenance crews can take even longer given the complexity apparently, and they are finding that basic English language skills are also not enough. So there are a number of confounding factors, but not necessarily that clear how it plays out. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 13:46:33 GMT
The link from winning councillors/councils to winning Westminster seats is tenuous (as we saw with UKIP) but I think it is fair to say that the 'squeeze' on Greens votes into GEs that has occurred in the past is not something that Starmer-LAB should rely upon. The comparison to UKIP is valid in the sense that UKIP were only able to exert such high influence over a major UK wide party when they became an electoral threat.
Whilst UKIP never had many Westminster seats (max 2) then into GE'15 we saw
Tick UKIP VI = Get Cameron to promise EURef
and into GE'24 it's a simples choice:
Tick/Vote LAB = Get Tory
Tick Green VI = maybe influence LAB and get Starmer to do some 'O'-turns and start prioritising sensible Green issues.
Useful source of info and analysis IMO
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 13:52:57 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 14:47:29 GMT
Re the Greens and Labour. I am not sure that the Greens are an electoral threat to Labour in the same way that UKIP was to the Conservatives (or at least was perceived to be). The UKIP vote was fairly evenly distributed across England and parts of Wales, so the risk for the Tories was of it taking enough votes that they lost seats to Labour (actually UKIP ate into the Labour vote too, which Tory HQ sort of ignored in their panic to placate those voters).
In contrast the Green vote is quite 'lumpy' with areas of great strength and others where they are largely absent. This actually gives them a better chance of winning Westminster seats than UKIP had, but makes them less of a generic threat outside of their strong areas.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 14:51:15 GMT
The traitor having consented to the terms of his bond( bail) yesterday breaches them today! youtu.be/Mgn3wHnGS38The longer the Orange Warlock is not put in jail the more his base think they can get away with anything |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 14:58:26 GMT
Is there much evidence that the red wall actually exists for Sunak? |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 15:04:49 GMT
Re the Greens and Labour. I am not sure that the Greens are an electoral threat to Labour in the same way that UKIP was to the Conservatives (or at least was perceived to be). The UKIP vote was fairly evenly distributed across England and parts of Wales, so the risk for the Tories was of it taking enough votes that they lost seats to Labour (actually UKIP ate into the Labour vote too, which Tory HQ sort of ignored in their panic to placate those voters). In contrast the Green vote is quite 'lumpy' with areas of great strength and others where they are largely absent. This actually gives them a better chance of winning Westminster seats than UKIP had, but makes them less of a generic threat outside of their strong areas. interesting point. So is there a trend for the green vote to become less lumpy or not? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2023 15:19:10 GMT
Will Hutton and Sarah Olney MP in conversation at a Social Liberal Forum event: www.youtube.com/watch?v=moYM6vkcCwM (the sound improves after the first 15 minutes) One point that Will Hutton makes is that a boring Labour leader encourages tactical voting, because many Tories aren't frightened by him. He thinks that tactical voting could pay a bigger part in the next election than anyone expects. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 15:26:59 GMT
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 16:00:39 GMT
Common complaints about heat pumps include the way they don’t get very hot so you have to change your radiators, and the gases used can have a greenhouse gas potency many times higher than CO2. But new tech may be addressing these problems, of which more in the energy thread… ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/98160/thread |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 22, 2023 16:05:32 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall.
Red Wall VI (6 August):
Labour 53% (+4)
Conservative 28% (–)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-2)
Green 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 6 August
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 16:16:15 GMT
Re the Greens and Labour. I am not sure that the Greens are an electoral threat to Labour in the same way that UKIP was to the Conservatives (or at least was perceived to be). The UKIP vote was fairly evenly distributed across England and parts of Wales, so the risk for the Tories was of it taking enough votes that they lost seats to Labour (actually UKIP ate into the Labour vote too, which Tory HQ sort of ignored in their panic to placate those voters). In contrast the Green vote is quite 'lumpy' with areas of great strength and others where they are largely absent. This actually gives them a better chance of winning Westminster seats than UKIP had, but makes them less of a generic threat outside of their strong areas. interesting point. So is there a trend for the green vote to become less lumpy or not? Just FWIW then the UKIP'15* vote was fairly lumpy but perhaps CCHQ 'remembered' that better into GE'19 than LAB HQ? Loads of sites people could use but IIRC then UKPR2 types like the Groan so can use the below and select UKIP in the drop down box to see the different shadings of purple at a seat level. www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/may/07/live-uk-election-results-in-fullThe 'hypothesis' WRT to Greens is for the future. Historically they have often 'squeezed' into voting LAB at a GE and that MIGHT not always be the case in the future. See: "No guarantee Green voters will row behind Labour at the election"labourlist.org/2023/08/labour-green-party-general-election-tactical-voting-progressive-alliance/So 'trend' is IMO the wrong thing to be trying to find as the issue is a break with the past 'lending' of votes. In terms of 'councillors' then Greens are quite lumpy and they don't post a candidate in every seat in a GE (which makes them look lumpy). Could use EP elections as a proxy for a 'free' vote but huge caveats on doing that as EP uses D'Hondt for regions and GEs are FPTP (which gets back to the issue of 'lending' votes - or not). Chris Hanretty does lots of spreadsheets with results from various elections that people can 'copy+paste' and use for their own prediction models. See the downloadable file "European Parliament election 2019 results by Westminster constituency"www.markpack.org.uk/159014/european-parliament-election-results-2019-broken-down-by-westminster-constituency/Anyone with fairly basic spreadsheet skills can 'sort' any of the columns and see that Hanretty has credited Greens with gaining anything from 3% in Rhondda to 45% in Bristol West (ie lumpy, as per other parties) - certainly enough to 'split' the ABCON vote in enough seats to get LAB to pay attention to Green issues. NB I'm not saying the EP numbers are a 'prediction' just that there is a lot of data out there that people can choose to use to look at 'scenarios' - or not. * BXP'19a (ie EP) vote was also lumpy and you didn't need to be a genius to be able to sort Hanretty's data, spot the 'marginal' target seats that needed to be won in GE'19 as they were pretty much the same seats that May failed to win in GE'17 (when people could have used the 'better' data of UKIP'15 vote share by seat). Why did LAB HQ not notice the Leave'16 vote was the 'marginal' vote to win in GE'19 given they did so well in GE'17 when Corbyn had said 'Brexit is settled'? One wonders, with good reason, whether a lot of the people within LAB never wanted to win GE'19 as the only way to get rid of Corbyn and crush the LW-LAB was to see Corbyn-LAB lose badly in a GE. Just an inspired guess! |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 16:42:04 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall. Red Wall VI ( 6 20 August): Labour 53% (+4) Conservative 28% (–) Reform UK 7% (-1) Liberal Democrat 6% (-2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 1% (-1) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 6 August Just FWIW then from the tabs: LAB VI retention is 85% and they are also benefitting from 17% CON'19->LAB VI Someone in LAB HQ has worked out which voters to target (or at least be happy to take back from CON) - strangely enough the same ones that LAB offered up to CON on a plate into GE'19 with the complicated, drawn out, 2nd Ref policy of BRINO v Remain. Fair to say that important/marginal 'lent votes' that helped CON into GE'19 aren't looking like they'll be rolled over to help CON in GE'24 and hence why it would be foolish to "assume" that Greens will keep lending votes to LAB. However, if Greens don't show any indication to exert any 'influence' then Starmer-LAB can focus on the kind of voter that lent their vote to CON in GE'19 (and I've covered the demographics/views of that kind of voter using actual polling data in previous posts). |
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Post by graham on Aug 22, 2023 16:57:32 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall. Red Wall VI (6 August): Labour 53% (+4) Conservative 28% (–) Reform UK 7% (-1) Liberal Democrat 6% (-2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 1% (-1) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 6 August That data is already rather old given that the pollster has published two further national polls since 6th August! |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 17:07:11 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall. Red Wall VI ( 6 20 August): Labour 53% (+4) Conservative 28% (–) Reform UK 7% (-1) Liberal Democrat 6% (-2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 1% (-1) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 6 August That data is already rather old given that the pollster has published two further national polls since 6th August! !?!? The fieldwork is 20Aug (I hope I don't get into trouble for making the correction in the above, the typo was made by R&W in their twitter post). I don't think anyone on UKPR2 expects %s at a seat level to move in a perfectly UNS/PNS way and hence whilst folks might pick some fault in the specific sample of 'Red Wall' seats that R&W pick and 'one poll caveat', etc then IMO it is useful to see FRESH polling of a subset of seats that are an indication of likely changes in an area that LAB need to win (and CON need to hold most of). R&W don't weight their regional x-breaks and even those that do (eg YG) have small regional samples so high MoE. R&W's 'Red Wall' poll has n=1,066 which is pretty decent. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 17:07:58 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2023 17:12:36 GMT
steve - "While of course Danny is wrong , don't understate the seriousness of the common cold , tens of thousands die each year world wide as a result of complications and secondary conditions related to catching the common cold." Apols to jump in, but that's bullshit I'm afraid. The CDC counted 3 deaths from common cold (on death cert) over 5 years, I recall. Flu - another matter, but still nowhere near as bad as covid.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 17:19:33 GMT
Indeed Col., I was just interested in whether there were some other military explanations for a delay besides fears of escalation etc. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 17:23:56 GMT
alec Try reading the post. "tens of thousands die each year world wide as a result of complications and secondary conditions related to catching the common cold." It's the complications and secondary infections, such as pneumonia and exacerbating existing pre conditions that kill people not the cold. Now might I suggest for the second time you stop insulting other posters because you haven't actually bothered to read the post! www.google.com/url?q=https://www.napier.ac.uk/about-us/news/conversation-peter-barlow-common-cold&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiW2-v45PCAAxV42gIHHTcMANIQFnoECAgQAg&usg=AOvVaw3iCYXNgNIquj4NN5cH2msE"Between 1979 and 2016, the death rate as a direct result of exposure to cold (underlying cause of death) generally ranged from 1 to 2.5 deaths per million people, with year-to-year fluctuations (see Figure 1). Overall, a total of more than 19,000 Americans have died from cold-related causes since 1979, according to death certificates." EPA
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