Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 8:39:17 GMT
As a public service, Redwood and Wilton without the tedious trolling. Labour 42% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 13% Reform UK 7% Green 6% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% The Government’s net competency rating stands at -24% this week. Altogether, 23% find the Government competent, while 47% find the Government incompetent. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -18%. Yesterday’s poll finds 29% approving of his overall job performance against 47% disapproving. Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +12%. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance, while 27% disapprove. To a simple bear like me, a 6% drop in LAB VI (in a week?) is a pretty big movement, albeit that little, (in fact, no), benefit appears to have gone CON's way. Noteworthy increases in LDEM, RFM and Green VI, apparently. Just 'silly season' stuff in the absence of any substantial political news or some genuine realignment between the various parties? I think I favour the former. The informal UKKP 'rule' is 3-4 polls in a row showing a change in the same direction: From wiki: R&W: CON 27% (-1), LAB 42% (-6). Lead 15%(-5) Omnisis: CON 28% (+4), LAB 44% (-4). Lead 16% (-8) YG: CON 26% (+1), LAB 45% (-2). Lead 19% (-3) Opinium: CON 26% (uc), LAB 41% (-1). Lead 15% (+1) So not yet 4 in a row but enough to show a narrowing in their graph: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_electionThere has (IMO) been quite a bit of political news (eg the 'small boats week' shambles) which hasn't been good for CON so perhaps the issue is less appeal for LAB (and folks are welcome to show the x-break analysis and see if LAB'19 loyalty has dropped a bit - although it's trickier to see in LTV section). Someone is very welcome to look at the smaller parties but the trend line for those is not up. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2023 8:42:59 GMT
Re the gender gap in British politics. A bit of checking suggests to me that the present pattern of women being more supportive of Labour has been around for close to 20 years. But it appears to have gone unnoticed. The last time that Labour did better with men than women was at GE2001, when it was 42/32 with men and 42/33 with women - per Ipsos Mori analysis, first link below. In 2005, Ipsos recorded a 34/34 tie with men and a Labour lead of 38/32 with women. So a 6-point gap there. This appears to have been the norm ever since. In 2010, the Tories led by 38/28 with men and 36/31 with women - a 5 point gap. 2015 was a slightly odd one, as the figures are distorted by UKIP faring much better with men than women (by 15% to 12%). As a result, both Con and Lab did better with women than men. Men voted by 37/29 for the Tories and women 38/33, so a 3-point difference - or 6 points on a 'Lab v Con+UKIP' comparison. Labour has fared 6 points better than the Conservatives with women than men per youGov's analysis of both GE2017 and GE2019. So the recent YouGov polling showing a 7-point gap should not be any great surprise. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 8:46:12 GMT
The voice of irrelevant extremism. Much the same sort of raging at the world that can be found on the Far Right, but thankfully we haven't got an endless bore sharing such garbage on this forum. For what it's worth, I think the Trevor account is very likely to be something set up by a form of organised political activism on the Right. It could be linked to the Tory Party or an offshoot. An attempt to destabilise, propagandise and ruin political discussion forums thought to be left-leaning. Quite possible. However FWIW for the record and for my part I am a disorganised political inactivist. The RW-LAB do seem to get very angry with the LW/xLW-LAB folks speaking out against their leader/front-bench. For the record then I was never LW-LAB and quite* happy to see the 'Right' side win the internal LAB battle. However, IIRC there was some polling recently that showed over 30% of people would vote for Corbyn-LAB, even despite all the demonising of Corbyn. LW/xLW-LAB are making it very personal with their attacks on Starmer but Starmer has done personal attacks on Corbyn (and Rishi) so it's a case of 'what goes around comes around'. I can appreciate why RW-LAB (Red Tories, Tory Plan B) want to silence LW/xLW-LAB and hence why Starmer has been given the nickname Sir Keith Stalin. Starmer's minions taking their lead from their leader. Of course if anyone wants to attack the Corbynite/istas then they can go troll them on twitter - I provide links/sources so the info is there should they wish to spend their spare time trolling Corbynite/istas. * Disappointed on the drop of Green issues and as stated I'm (a bit) Left of Starmer (LoS) on economic axis but I'd still much rather have a RW-LAB HMG than a LW one (and as stated into the Truss error, I'd have preferred Starmer-LAB to Truss-CON). So little difference between Starmer-LAB and Rishi-CON that it's a  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Aug 22, 2023 8:53:14 GMT
Screw Putin’s ‘red lines’. He has no right to them, anymore than Milosevic or Bin Laden did. In banging on about them all we do is aggrandise him and encourage him to make threats he knows many in the West will get knock-kneed about. A direct military confrontation with Russia would make me nervous but I would welcome it because it would be the right thing to do and I know the Russians who are good at talking but not doing would fold like a crumpled piece of paper. It would set a precedent for the future that this sort of international anarchy and state terrorism will not be tolerated from anyone, anywhere including China.They will not use nuclear weapons as they’re not suicidal and are too unprincipled to risk Armageddon. They are in reality cowards who rely on our fear to continue their crimes. Many still seem to have some latent respect or awe for the Russian state as if it were actually the successor to the Soviet Union. It is no such thing. It’s nothing but a criminal organisation writ large and appeasing it’s nihilistic crimes is to appease the worst in humanity. , apologies but I am far more cautious than you. The hubris and imperial overstretch shown by the US in first two decades of this century show clearly the unforeseen consequences and risks of going to war. Also I really don't think either materially or psychologically western nations/societies are prepared for a war with Russia. It would be very difficult to contain, and the risk of it escalating to some form of nuclear engagement is too high - that's just how nuclear deterrents work and why NATO will not get involved in a hot war with Russia full stop! Personally, I don't want to see my two sons sacrificed in a war with Russia and I guess most parents in the UK feel the same. We are already covertly engaged, which can be denied - but direct conflict is just too risky.
In terms of intervention, one thing I learnt years ago from people in the military, is you really need an exit strategy and long-term occupation of a hostile population is untenable. There is no way we can occupy Russia, and there is no guarantee your intervention will topple Putin's regime (in fact it may have the reverse effect). Military leaders will never support a plan that does not involve knocking out Russian airpower/defences, which means you cant restrict action territorially to Ukraine and will have to strike at assets in Russia. Also, rather than leading to China toeing the line, it will likely lead them to further invest in their military fuelling an arms race.
Many analyst were arguing that this summer offered the the best chance for Ukraine (a window where the Russians would be weaker), where the west fundamentally went wrong was not providing the Ukrainians with means to establish air superiority (they thought missiles would be enough). After 3-4 months of their counter-offensive they have only made modest gains in a couple of sectors, and the Russians don't look like breaking atm. While Russian losses have been high, so have Ukraine's, and when you factor in relative demographics, they are probably at a similar rate. As I have said before, it seems highly likely the war will go into at least a third year. Most likely outcome is probably some form of negotiated compromise. I understand what you're saying of course, I'm also a parent and would love my child to grow up in a world free from threats but unfortunately it's never been that way. I think we're all in some way hankering back to the 'break from history' in terms of inter-state relations after the end of the cold war which was of course a short-lived aberration. In following that understandable line of thought we are effectively saying to the world that as long as you have nuclear weapons you are more or less free to behave as you please (the west can't support every potential victim of aggression the world over like it has Ukraine). That sets the stage for a far more dangerous world of runaway nuclear proliferation leading to greater not less risk of nuclear war over time. Even as far as Russia is concerned not fighting a limited war in Ukraine now could simply lead to a more determined Russia launching even more brutal wars in the future. Pay now or pay more later as peace at any cost is only likely to lead to something worse down the line. To go all Godwin for a moment would you have said the same thing in Sep 1939? I'm sure many in this country did. Why risk the security of your family for Poland? I seem to recall there was some French phrase about not being willing to risk one's life for Danzig. Unfortunately evil people sometimes leave you no other choice. I don't believe that NATO/America have decided they will not engage Russian forces under any circumstances. I understand it's been made clear to them that if they use tactical nuclear weapons the Americans will at least destroy the black sea fleet. That's a threat that would have to be followed up on or America would lose all military credibility. I don't suggest that NATO attempt to occupy a single centimetre of recognised Russian territory, just defend sovereign states from Russian forces. Chase the Russians out of Ukraine (except Crimea perhaps) and stamp on any attempted diversion in the Baltic area, ie Suwalki. Yes it might be necessary to bomb targets in Russia but that would have to be done in a very limited and restrained way. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to make clear that the objective would be just to end the occupation of Ukraine, not to destroy the Russian state. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 8:53:43 GMT
peteI'm a few years older than you. I've had covid three times definitely with a positive reading possibly a fourth before home testing was available. Twice I was completely asymptomatic the other times it was no worse than a very mild cold.My daughter has tested positive no less than five times with the exception of the first when she was actually quite unwell for a couple of days she's been entirely asymptomatic. My mother suffering from severe advanced dementia caught covid in hospital around four weeks before she died at 92 just before Christmas, it's possible it accelerated her demise, it didn't appear on the death certificate , frankly that was probably a relief as her last six months of life were a living nightmare for her and us all. That doesn't of course mean other people have worse experience but it's tricky generalizing from individual circumstances.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 22, 2023 8:56:44 GMT
Next, it seems that it the management considered it to be inconceivable that a nurse could do this. Flawed assumptions. This is quite natural, as most people instinctively want to trust those working around them. History shows that medical staff have killed patients, albeit in rare instances. With more than a million people employed in health care, if it was a one in a million chance, then we should expect it to happen annually. Miracle that it doesnt, and maybe we should be thinking how many others are getting away with similar things, maybe on a smaller scale because its really only the scale of this which made it detectable. Thats not least because medical accident and negligence already costs the NHS vast sums every year in compensation. And so the standing instructions are never to admit fault. It seems likely that had these murders quietly continued undiscovered then the consequences for the hospital would have been...nothing. Whereas now there will be big compensations demands. Did we recently have another round of negotiations over compensation for people who contracted HIV from infected blood maybe 540 years ago? So many years of deliberate evasion and delay succeeded in passing the buck well into the 21st century. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 22, 2023 9:03:56 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter
Going back to my childhood days in the late 1960s, when my mother was a Tory party councillor and activist, my memory was of a political party where women of a certain age dominated it, certainly at local constituency level. They organised party fund-raising and social activities, were stalwarts of campaigning and tended to dominate their constituency association committees. The chairman of the local Bromsgrove and Redditch Constituency Tory Party back then was a fearsome matronly figure called, rather appropriately, Cynthia Large!
Whenever I was dragged along as a rather bemused and reluctant ten year-old child to various Tory Party events, I recall, more than anything, the proliferation and dominance of middle aged to elderly women.
I remember my mother talking about the irony of female dominated constituency associations tending to discriminate against would-be female parliamentary candidates. A woman's place in that case was as dutiful wife, not as a sitting MP! Tory women preferred men in smart suits with clipped manners and accents!
I accept this is now a long gone world, but these women forged the direction of the Conservative Party in their halcyon days and were, in many ways, its beating heart and soul. Politics merged with their social lives to the point that they became almost indistinct from one another. They had a hard-wired instinct for what tended to chime with female voters. A formidable political force they were, and more than often a successful one too.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 9:06:27 GMT
The Lib Dems are just an inferior but subservient branch of the Tory party. Anyway, I'm sure pointing that out made him spit out his crunchy nuts. Pedant alert but shouldn't that be 'a' (ie one of) rather than 'the' (singular)? LDEM had a mild preference for Red Tory back in 2010 but were happy to do a 5yr fixed deal with the Blue version. Into GE'19 they didn't like Corbyn-LAB (Corbyn was defo not a Tory) and saw an opportunity to 'go it alone' with Revoke. Credit to "PM in waiting" Swinson she didn't want to be a lickspittle to 'A' Tory party although she did do a PRE election pact with a NAT. Although that didn't put them in a subservient branch role to A Tory Party it does show they'd do a deal with anyone in pursuit of some red briefcases and ministerial cars. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 22, 2023 9:14:55 GMT
Is there data on how much better placed people with mortgages are? On the one hand, they would be in a spread from nothing paid off to most of the home paid for, so the costs would be less, but on the other hand they would likely have bigger homes. I note the government has organised a one year moratorium on evictions. Which they cannot do for private renters because it would just cause a wave of bankruptcies of the landlords instead. No one is talking about a real property crash. Which I find very odd because it was talked about a lot in 2008. The main difference seems to be then it was banks seen as at risk. Now its just individuals. But enough individuals unable to pay and it would then become a banking emergency again. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 22, 2023 9:27:28 GMT
Danny: " Its interesting perhaps that the US also adopted a two tier approach to membership, creating 'territories' which are not full member states. "Ah, yes. Britain as the Puerto Rico of Europe. Should tick all JiB's boxes. Indeed, is the natural end point of what he has supported in leaving the EU. We get back in on much worse terms. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 9:27:34 GMT
I don't suggest that NATO attempt to occupy a single centimetre of recognised Russian territory, just defend sovereign states from Russian forces. Chase the Russians out of Ukraine (except Crimea perhaps) and stamp on any attempted diversion in the Baltic area, ie Suwalki. Yes it might be necessary to bomb targets in Russia but that would have to be done in a very limited and restrained way. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to make clear that the objective would be just to end the occupation of Ukraine, not to destroy the Russian state. Yes thats basically it I think. The alternative offered is a " negotiated compromise"-ie forcing Ukraine to accept the loss of territory to Russia , and quite probably other constraints on its independence . What is never examined with suggestions like this ,is which countries will sign solemn & binding undertakings to guarantee the defence of rUkraine with direct military intervention if it is threatened again.? They were given before & Russia rode right through them. Can you see Zelensky * falling for that again ? To propose a "compromise" without such undertakings is to assume-yet again- that agreements with Putin can be relied upon. * actually there is an entirely different scenario brewing in Ukraine-a change of government:- www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/20/ukraines-sluggish-counter-offensive-is-souring-the-public-moodbelsat.eu/en/news/18-08-2023-ukrainian-domestic-politics-is-slowly-restoring-and-becoming-more-livelycepa.org/article/ukraine-mulls-an-election-under-shellfire/ |
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Post by pete on Aug 22, 2023 10:03:54 GMT
This may well be true but as a 59 year old the common cold hasn't put me out of action twice (bedridden, both times breathing problems) now neither have I ever had the flu. Covid is more dangerous than the flu/cold. But nor where you exposed to covid as a kiddie when it likely would have been just another cold, and therebay acquired immunity keeping it at the cold level for most of your life. In terms of immunity, an infection has similar effects to a vaccination. You'll need to explain how both times I got Covid (badly) I'd been vaccinated? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 22, 2023 10:04:17 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Going back to my childhood days in the late 1960s, when my mother was a Tory party councillor and activist, my memory was of a political party where women of a certain age dominated it, certainly at local constituency level. They organised party fund-raising and social activities, were stalwarts of campaigning and tended to dominate their constituency association committees. The chairman of the local Bromsgrove and Redditch Constituency Tory Party back then was a fearsome matronly figure called, rather appropriately, Cynthia Large! Whenever I was dragged along as a rather bemused and reluctant ten year-old child to various Tory Party events, I recall, more than anything, the proliferation and dominance of middle aged to elderly women. I remember my mother talking about the irony of female dominated constituency associations tending to discriminate against would-be female parliamentary candidates. A woman's place in that case was as dutiful wife, not as a sitting MP! Tory women preferred men in smart suits with clipped manners and accents! I accept this is now a long gone world, but these women forged the direction of the Conservative Party in their halcyon days and were, in many ways, its beating heart and soul. Politics merged with their social lives to the point that they became almost indistinct from one another. They had a hard-wired instinct for what tended to chime with female voters. A formidable political force they were, and more than often a successful one too. Would your description have still been true in 1975 - when Thatcher became the Tory leader? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 10:13:29 GMT
Who are these 23% and what the hell do they think this government is 'competent' in? The interesting bit is that 23% of voters think the Tories are competent but 27% plan to vote for them. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 22, 2023 10:17:49 GMT
Hi domjg , I have sympathy with much of what you say, but the reality is we are in the nuclear age and you can't dismiss that fact in calculations when looking at conflicts between nuclear powers, especially the two with the largest arsenals.In following that understandable line of thought we are effectively saying to the world that as long as you have nuclear weapons you are more or less free to behave as you please (the west can't support every potential victim of aggression the world over like it has Ukraine). That sets the stage for a far more dangerous world of runaway nuclear proliferation leading to greater not less risk of nuclear war over time. - I tend to disagree, deterrents work both ways, and at the risk of triggering an all out nuclear confrontation, an attempt at a 'limited' conflict will not stop the drivers of proliferation. Actions by the West in Iraq etc have done much more to convince other states (Iran and N.Korea) of the efficacy of nuclear deterrents. The jinni is out of the bag with nuclear weapons, and they are now perceived as the best guarantor against an external threat from another nation state to a regimes existence. That puts a constraint on options.To go all Godwin for a moment would you have said the same thing in Sep 1939? - different times and pre-nuclear era so any comparison is relatively meaningless. I totally agree that sometimes you need to fight - but it depends on the level and nature of the threat. Do you think the actual threat from Russia warrants risking human civilisation? We can try and sap their strength in Ukraine and the wait it out, and convince the Chinese that sticking to diplomacy is the best option. So why take the risk?I don't believe that NATO/America have decided they will not engage Russian forces under any circumstances. - NATO is clear that an attack on one of its members is a trigger, and the Russians aren't stupid enough to try it.Chase the Russians out of Ukraine (except Crimea perhaps) - this is a compromise, and partial win for Russia. And as I said you can't achieve that without attacking assets in Russia - as soon as you do that it will escalate, you may have convinced yourself that it wont escalate, not sure you will find that many in the military who would share your level of confidence or risk tolerance.Unfortunately, I think as was the case in the Cold War, our only real option is containment and fighting by proxy.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 10:20:27 GMT
domjg "Yes it might be necessary to bomb targets in Russia but that would have to be done in a very limited and restrained way. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to make clear that the objective would be just to end the occupation of Ukraine, not to destroy the Russian state." How do you think the UK would react to a foreign power bombing it in "a very limited and restrained way" while happily offering the reassurance that this was OK because they were not trying the destroy the state?
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Post by James E on Aug 22, 2023 10:20:56 GMT
As a public service, Redwood and Wilton.... Labour 42% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 13% Reform UK 7% Green 6% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% .... Remarkably similar figures are to be found in the latest YouGov (18 Aug): Lab 43% Con 28% LibDem 14% Ref 8% Green 7% other 1% So everyone one point higher, except the SNP, but that's to be expected as this is the South of England cross-break (n=733). The Tories had a 32-point lead (55/23) here at GE2019. And while this is on the high side, the norm with YouGov is still around a 20% swing in the South, compared to around 6% in London. The evidence remains overwhelming for something very different to a Uniform Swing. docs.cdn.yougov.com/kby5f0bevb/TheTimes_VI_Results_230818_W.pdfAlso, another record-equalling 36/64 lead for 'Wrong to Leave' in the Brexit Hindsight tracker - but that seems to be the 'new normal'. The recent average is 37/63. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 10:25:20 GMT
oldnat Clearly it was too much to ask for you to have a sensible conversation about the realities of European union membership. Instead you reverted to secessionist talking points and insults, shame that You can do better. You are the ghost 👻 of Winnie Ewing and I claim my Edinburgh issued £5 note.
A reasonable debate requires that people justify their arguments. You fail to do that. |
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Post by eor on Aug 22, 2023 10:28:53 GMT
That is a very naughty headline tbf - not having a full month's rent in savings that could be drawn upon needs about five layers of translation to get to "one paycheque away from losing their home", which is a spectre that surely isn't real anyway? Can you really be evicted for going into partial arrears on a single rent payment? (I appreciate if the answer is actually "yes" then I've played straight into the bubble you referenced in your first line!) That's OK then. Even if you can't be kicked out straight away the fear and mental pressure people will be under if they start to fall behind in paying rent. You can't just do a couple of hours extra work and catch up on yourself. People on here really do live different lives. Sorry, really wasn't meant as a glib "nothing to see here", tho I can see why it reads like that. It just seemed a particularly striking example of a newspaper over-spinning a poll, in this case to the extent of putting a headline on it that they must have known wasn't true or even possible. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 22, 2023 10:30:47 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Going back to my childhood days in the late 1960s, when my mother was a Tory party councillor and activist, my memory was of a political party where women of a certain age dominated it, certainly at local constituency level. They organised party fund-raising and social activities, were stalwarts of campaigning and tended to dominate their constituency association committees. The chairman of the local Bromsgrove and Redditch Constituency Tory Party back then was a fearsome matronly figure called, rather appropriately, Cynthia Large! Whenever I was dragged along as a rather bemused and reluctant ten year-old child to various Tory Party events, I recall, more than anything, the proliferation and dominance of middle aged to elderly women. I remember my mother talking about the irony of female dominated constituency associations tending to discriminate against would-be female parliamentary candidates. A woman's place in that case was as dutiful wife, not as a sitting MP! Tory women preferred men in smart suits with clipped manners and accents! I accept this is now a long gone world, but these women forged the direction of the Conservative Party in their halcyon days and were, in many ways, its beating heart and soul. Politics merged with their social lives to the point that they became almost indistinct from one another. They had a hard-wired instinct for what tended to chime with female voters. A formidable political force they were, and more than often a successful one too. When I was a student in the early 1980s, my landlady for the last two years, an elderly widow, who was working class to her fingertips, always voted Conservative (or Liberal if they ran a candidate). The reason was that her late husband had been an industrial worker and very strongly Labour and since she was stuck in a marriage that these days would have ended in divorce, but you just didn't do that then, especially as they had had children, it gave her pleasure in the privacy of the polling booth to cancel out his vote. Anecdotal it is true but social studies of that era suggest that working class women of the time were much more likely to vote Conservative than their menfolk and one reason was they were put off by the rather macho culture that prevailed in a lot of industry and washed over into the Labour movement of the day.. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 10:38:07 GMT
oldnat"I note that none of the points of yours that I requested elucidation on, have yet been explained. Is that because you were making statements that lacked foundation - " No it's because I cannae be arsed to enter into a discussion where you've already decided that you're right.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 10:40:53 GMT
Woman goes on holiday and has a beer. Right wing media lose their shit!  |
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 10:45:34 GMT
Good news on drug deaths in Scotland.
Official data shows there were 1,051 deaths due to drug misuse in 2022 – a drop of 279 on the previous year the largest yearly fall recorded.
Scotland's drug induced deaths still unfortunately remain at nearly three times the U.K. average.
A review of drug related mortality is needed moving the issue firmly from t criminal to public health treatment.
Decriminalization of recreational drugs also has huge benefits in disrupting organized crime business models.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2023 10:54:10 GMT
oldnat The influence the constituent members of the United kingdom would have in the European union as separate entities would be diminished. I assume you would accept that Croatia doesn't have as much influence as Germany in terms of economic and social policy or in the European parliament.Similar circumstances would apply to a separate Scotland which could expect to exert similar influence to perhaps Denmark, Wales would be akin to Cyprus. A independent England has a similar population to Italy and a GDP close to France so presumably would be a significant member state. This isn't a criticism of smaller states membership they play an important role and benefit massively from membership but it's naive to think that they are the driving force behind European union policy. The only exception to this might be northern Ireland ,given their semi detatched status from the rest of the UK already. If following a border poll they united with the Republic of Ireland they wouldn't actually have to join the European union, as they would already be members. This option clearly isn't open to the rest of the UK. Actually this is not correct, in the sense that while the individual nations of the UK would have smaller voting weightings than the UK as a whole[1], the sum of the nations' voting weightings would actually be larger under the rules of the Treaty of Nice (2004) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_NiceWhile Germany, France, UK and Italy all had a voting weight of 29 in the Council in 2004, Malta, as the smallest state, had a voting weight of 3 (so a per-capita weight over 21 times larger than Germany). The voting weightings in the Council favour the smaller states of the EU. [1] Actually England might end up with the same weighting as the entire UK. It would certainly be no smaller than Spain's weighting (27). |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 11:08:56 GMT
leftieliberal I haven't bothered to work it out I'm sure you're right. However I really meant the influence in terms of policy exerted by the largest members , but it does go some way to mitigate the negative impact. Any idea if Ireland get more votes if their population has just gone up by 35%?
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Post by steve on Aug 22, 2023 11:18:33 GMT
Breaking
Ukraine said on Tuesday its troops had entered the strategically important south-eastern village of Robotyne, a potentially significant advance in its counteroffensive against Russia.
Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, said Ukrainian soldiers were organising the evacuation of civilians, but were still coming under fire from Russian forces. These claims have not yet been independently verified.
Robotyne is six miles south of Orikhiv, a town on an important road leading to Tokmak, a Russian-occupied road and rail hub.
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2023 11:18:37 GMT
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 22, 2023 11:19:30 GMT
When I was a student in the early 1980s, my landlady for the last two years, an elderly widow, who was working class to her fingertips, always voted Conservative (or Liberal if they ran a candidate). The reason was that her late husband had been an industrial worker and very strongly Labour and since she was stuck in a marriage that these days would have ended in divorce, but you just didn't do that then, especially as they had had children, it gave her pleasure in the privacy of the polling booth to cancel out his vote. Anecdotal it is true but social studies of that era suggest that working class women of the time were much more likely to vote Conservative than their menfolk and one reason was they were put off by the rather macho culture that prevailed in a lot of industry and washed over into the Labour movement of the day.. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 22, 2023 11:23:42 GMT
I don't know if anyone falls for Starmer's 'hard luck' story. We all know his dad was good at making tools though  Anyway, he's winding the Genuine LoCs up again with his latest vacuous comments: totally devoid of facts (eg a lot more 'disadvanatged'* people go to Uni now than when he had to 'tough it out' at Leeds back in his day) and obviously devoid of any policy announcement (which would be an 'O'-turn** given he's already 'U-turned' and broken the pledge to scrap Uni fees) * See "There have been continued increases in entry rates for different groups of students, including those from disadvantaged areas/backgrounds where rates have also hit new record levels."
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7857/In terms of %s then 'White Males' are one of the lowest %s and if anyone wants to discuss the finer details then I'd suggest the 'Education' thread given it seems unlikely either main party are going to make any further significant changes (noting CON HMG have moved away from the stupid (IMO) 50% target that Blair set) ** Folks who want Corbyn's GE'19 manifesto and Starmer's 10 pledges (before he ripped them up) can vote Green if they want to. Greens would abolish Uni fees
Students pay a heavy price from latest Starmer U-turn say Greenswww.greenparty.org.uk/news/2023/05/03/students-pay-a-heavy-price-from-latest-starmer-u-turn-say-greens/NB Before the trolls get going then note I'm fine with the current system and think we should be deterring people from taking 'Micky Mouse' degrees that leave then £50k in debt with low job prospects. If you want to become an Engineer, Doctor or even a lawyer then you can easily repay a student loan who you start work and hence if you want to go to Uni to do a 'proper' degree then taxpayers will loan you the money to invest in yourself. Seems a good approach IMO. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 22, 2023 11:24:10 GMT
leftieliberal I haven't bothered to work it out I'm sure you're right. However I really meant the influence in terms of policy exerted by the largest members , but it does go some way to mitigate the negative impact. Any idea if Ireland get more votes if their population has just gone up by 35%? It's difficult to say, but it is possible that it would make no difference to Ireland's weighting, just take them from the bottom of the group with a weighting of 7 to the top. |
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