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Post by alec on Aug 17, 2023 21:43:39 GMT
Variant watch: I posted a couple of nights ago about a new and radically different variant with a shed load of mutations that had appeared in sequencing from 3 samples in Israel and Denmark. The genetic distance of this one from current lineages is huge - about the same as the original Omicron leap, so this was noteworthy.
Well things have moved rather rapidly. The WHO today denoted this as a 'variant under monitoring', which is unheard of speed. We've ever seen a variant given a formal demarcation like this so rapidly, with so few cases, so it's clear that the WHO are worried. It's also now been named BA.2.86 A few hours ago we also had news that a 4th case has been found in Michigan, so it's starting to look like this is already spreading. The rate of spread will be key here. It may still prove a complete dud, and become one of the fascinating variants with alarming potential but which failed to transmit widely, but with four unconnected cases in three different regions that's looking more of a long shot. Ryan Hisner, the legendary amateur sequence spotter has also just posted this comment:
"If a new variant spreads slowly, the early sequences are likely to differ from each other by quite a few mutations because different branches of the variant have had a lot of time to gain mutations. But if it spreads rapidly, early sequences will be very similar...At first it looked like the BA.2.86 seq from Israel & Denmark were significantly different. The Michigan sequence suggests the apparent differences were mostly sequencing artifacts & that all 4 seq are in fact very similar. The chances this is spreading rapidly just went way up."
This would be very significant, because this variant branched off the Omicron tree from variants circulating over a year ago, and the spike mutations make it completely different to the currently circulating XBB variants, which the latest vaccines are based on. So it's quite likely to be highly immune evasive, from either past infection or vaccines, and may be rapidly spreading.
The only question is whether it is more or less virulent. That is a function of the virus itself and how it interacts with existing immunity, but even with just four cases identified, this variant has got the trackers worried more than any other variant since Omicron.
And interesting, there are multiple reports of CDC officials, fully masked, inviting arrivals at JFK and other international airports in the US to give PCR tests for sequencing. They are being told that the tests will be anonymous, but will be used for tracking variants.
So it looks like the CDC is getting nervous about the situation too.
Whether this is variant X is still to be seen, but this huge genetic leap is yet another warning that covid is far from done with us. There is no viable way out of this until we get serious about the simple things, all of which involve the reduction of transmission. Like we've dealt with every other serious disease in human history.
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Post by mercian on Aug 17, 2023 21:49:18 GMT
oldnat"As for defence, it's seems unlikely that any part of the UK will be invaded, without intervention from other states who are similarly threatened/attacked. "Defence" is one of those weasel words, designed to divert attention from the real purpose - which is to pursue the foreign policy directions of the state. In reality, it can only operate in conjunction with allies. My preference would be for that alliance to be based on membership of the EU, with each state contributing the forces that are most appropriate to its geographic position, but planned to form an integrated military force when required. " NATO.
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Post by jib on Aug 17, 2023 21:50:45 GMT
Well I blame the pill for allowing women to choose not to have babies. 😁 The eventual drop in population when this idea spreads to Africa and other fecund places will cause major problems which we in the West (and China) are already beginning to see. A relatively small number of workers will be supporting more and more retirees. Something will have to give. Possibilities: 1) The young will never be able to vote in a government that they want because they will always be heavily outnumbered. Therefore they will rebel and install dictators who will introduce voluntary and then compulsory euthanasia. Actually some of this happens unofficially anyway with Do Not Resuscitate notices over beds and the 'Liverpool pathway' in the NHS. 2) We will develop, and have the resources to build enough robots to do nearly all work including care for the elderly and create enough wealth to give everyone a living wage whether they work or not. The last bit seems very unlikely because more and more wealth seems to be being channelled to fewer and fewer people because of multi-nationals. There may be others. Yes. I'm sure you've seen Logan's Run. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 17, 2023 22:23:26 GMT
oldnat "As for defence, it's seems unlikely that any part of the UK will be invaded, without intervention from other states who are similarly threatened/attacked. "Defence" is one of those weasel words, designed to divert attention from the real purpose - which is to pursue the foreign policy directions of the state. In reality, it can only operate in conjunction with allies. My preference would be for that alliance to be based on membership of the EU, with each state contributing the forces that are most appropriate to its geographic position, but planned to form an integrated military force when required. "
NATO. Indeed and whilst Finland and Sweden did join NATO recently then within the EU27 there are still some 'freeloaders'* who like to exercise their 'opt-outs' (with the hokey cokey of opting in on stuff they don't mind being part of or applying some weasel words to say they are contributing, or would do in certain circumstances in a future that is likely beyond their electoral cycle).
Ireland secures opt-out from EU ‘security commitments’ to Ukrainewww.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/06/29/ireland-secures-opt-out-from-eu-security-commitments-to-ukraine/I wouldn't be surprised if iScotland (should that ever happen) took the same approach, as NATO would unlikely allow Scotland to be invaded, an iScotland might decide not to be part of NATO and avoid stating a significant (eg 2%) contribution to an integrated military force. Of course if everyone was a 'freeloader' then freeloading wouldn't work and perhaps one day the EU does remove the 'opt-outs' that allow likes of Ireland to avoid the 'cost' of an integrated military force that would be both a deterrent and able to be called upon if/when required. Also anyone who joins EU might not secure the opt-outs that Ireland, etc secured in the past but some of the recognised candidate countries (eg Turkey) are members of NATO then Ukraine becoming part of EU but not NATO could be a tricky issue (and my guess is the Irish Taoiseach (careful on the pronunciation) is smart enough to realise someone else would use their veto to block Ukraine from joining EU - at least until he gets a retirement job in Brussels?) * Pedants can take issue with the 'free' but "Military expenditure (% of GDP) in Ireland was reported at 0.26479 % in 2021" is a lot closer to 'free' than 2% and it would be very surprising if NATO allowed Ireland to be invaded. tradingeconomics.com/ireland/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html |
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Post by graham on Aug 17, 2023 22:43:42 GMT
Parkinson's passing does rather bring home the point that people born as late as the mid-1930s are now seriously old - rather than elderly.Indeed that probably applies to anyone born before World War 2. He was born in 1935 some nineteen years before myself, and it makes me realise that I am now on the cusp of being old - rather than elderly - particularly when faced with the reality that at 69 I have reached what was normal male life expectancy in mid-1975 however recent that still seems in many ways. You youngsters! Always moaning about something. 😁 It is not intended as 'a moan' at all! |
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Post by eor on Aug 17, 2023 22:53:07 GMT
It's even been a good few years since I've had to habitually leave my mobile phone perched on the front window sill of my parents' house in case anyone should try to contact me whilst I'm there. Your parents obviously live in the West of Swansea, you should come to Llansamlet where signal moves from the very strong to the non-existent depending on which room of the house you are in! Aye, in one of the parts of Uplands where the front garden of the houses opposite is level with your upstairs windows  At least I've always assumed that was the issue (that the gradient was so steep that tall trees and even other buildings would get in the way of the signal from hilltop masts) but I've never really known the science of how these things work so perhaps it's more random than that and the terrain was a coincidence! |
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Post by eor on Aug 17, 2023 23:19:44 GMT
Slightly techie question - is there an easy way for Youtube links posted on here to automatically include some kind of thumbnail or strapline so we have some indication of who the content provider is before clicking?
Not asking anyone to go to any hassle, but given that Youtube channels earn money per view, and that once clicked onto Google will register the channel as something I'm interested in and use it to influence ads and content recommendations, it would be nice to have some basic sight of who it is we're being invited to endorse and fund when people post Youtube links.
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Post by eor on Aug 17, 2023 23:46:33 GMT
Alas not. 64% of Americans polled said they would definitely or probably not vote for him, but the poll was All Adults, so historically about 40% of them aren't going to vote for anyone at all. It just doesn't translate into VI, as the nearly 20% who definitely or probably aren't going to vote for either Trump or Biden shows. Dont know about the US, but in the UK pollsters grossly under poll non voters. So far more of the 'all adults' they are asking will be voters than should be and its likely really a poll of 'all adult who will vote'. True to an extent - people who habitually don't vote are also less likely to answer opinion poll questions about voting. That said in the US the three types of poll (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters) do see fairly consistent differences and shifts, especially when any one organisation shifts its method as the election gets closer. A complacency that might explain the minor but consistent polling errors in Brexit polling prior to the referendum? Personally I suspect that on an organisational level the Republican "plan" doesn't get past "please god let things not have got any worse since yesterday". |
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Post by moby on Aug 17, 2023 23:46:56 GMT
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
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2m
Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm (St Albans) Council By-Election Result:
LDM: 46.0% (-3.8)
CON: 39.3% (+5.3)
GRN: 6.1% (-2.3)
LAB: 4.9% (2.8)
IND: 3.7% (New)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
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9m
Ayresome (Middlesbrough) Council By-Election Result:
IND: 36.1% (New)
LAB: 33.4% (-13.7)
LDM: 22.8% (+14.6)
CON: 3.4% (-14.8)
GRN: 3.6% (New)
IND: 0.6% (New)
No IND (-26.5) as previous.
Independent GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
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Post by mercian on Aug 17, 2023 23:56:10 GMT
Yes. I'm sure you've seen Logan's Run. No. I don't watch many films. Read the book years ago of course. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 17, 2023 23:58:37 GMT
You youngsters! Always moaning about something. 😁 It is not intended as 'a moan' at all! It was a joke. That was why I put the grinning face emoji. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 18, 2023 0:03:53 GMT
mobyUsual lack of enthusiasm for Labour and in the St Albans one the Tories closed the gap with LibDems. Straws in the wind?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2023 0:14:29 GMT
Welcome to this evening's edition of 'Isa for Insomniacs' (© crossbat11). Having been away for a week or so, some random jottings. Firstly, I notice that the 10 year gilt yield has risen to 4.746%, comfortably higher than anything seen even in 'peak Truss'. The knock-on effects for UK borrowing costs must be a little disconcerting for the Treasury, with all that entails for the rest of us. www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkgb-10y?countrycode=bxSecondly, the lack of much polling/political activity in the 'silly season' is certainly reflected in much of the recent discourse on UKPR2. Some very interesting thoughts being aired on a wide range of topics. Finally, an observation on discussions with some of my social circle of late. Several are well-heeled and very comfortably off. Negligible or non-existent mortgages, large incomes and/or pensions, mid-late fifties onwards demographic. Unlike many of the population, the cost of living crisis, energy costs and mortgage rate increases have been a minor inconvenience, rather than the almost existential threat which some have, and will continue to, experience. In the absence of such grim reality, I see some are filling this void by getting themselves into a right old lather about 'woke' issues, regularly fuelled by getting much of their 'news' from the Mail online feed, thereby constantly reinforcing this indignant thought process. I have seen this happening first hand of late and really was quite shocked. My takeaway from this is that, for a relatively small demographic, probably less than c30% of the population, 'wokism'? is a very real issue, which I suspect the Sunak administration will do its utmost to shore up, since they make up a significant proportion of CON VI. However, I suspect a lot more people will be much more concerned for the likely foreseeable with just getting through the month keeping body and soul together and a roof over their head. I'm not sure many of these will be thanking CON at the ballot box next year. |
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Post by moby on Aug 18, 2023 0:15:38 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 18, 2023 4:51:29 GMT
mobyOther than St Albans areas like Jersey Farm which was basically a very pleasant mixed private and council estate built in the 1970's/80's would be reasonably promising area for Labour. It goes to show that once established the lib dems can be the default party for middle/working class votes, it helps to have a popular local government and MP already in place. You obviously can't read much from local by elections but you would have expected Labour's performance to be somewhat more impressive than it has been recently in such seats.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 18, 2023 5:57:53 GMT
alecWe all I hope would wish that no significant risk emerges in relation to covid again. A little perspective though on the current situation On August 5th world wide the reported deaths from covid numbered 145, world wide. On the same day around 170,000 people died of causes unrelated to covid. Currently covid is no where near the top 20 causes of death world wide. Hiv/aids is 14th.
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Post by alec on Aug 18, 2023 6:22:49 GMT
steve - I don't anyone seriously bothers about 'official' covid data anymore. It's complete bunkum. Don't test, don't find. Best we've got are excess deaths measured against pre covid trends, age standardised. These indicate continued high levels of additional deaths, and the analyses of the recorded cause of death points towards a heavy covid burden continuing, with elevated deaths from pulmonary and cardiac causes. You're also looking backwards, I'm horizon scanning. Carry on pretending it's over if you like, but these posts are lodged in the memory, and we'll revisit them in due course.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 6:24:26 GMT
Border force official being interviewed on R4. Or some sort of expert.
The french have been paid a lot more to try to stop boats, but have stopped fewer attempts.
The overall percentage of people stopped is much the same.
Smugglers however are using bigger boats and rushing to get off beaches.
She considered that the attempts to stop the boat people are responsible for the rising number of deaths, because the smugglers are having to take risks.
She said the number of refugees arriving by boats remains small and isnt really the majority of the refugee problem for the UK.
She said they cannot be stopped from arriving by the sort of action we are taking, but only by guaranteeing that once they arrive they will not achieve their aim of obtaining assylum in the UK. Then they wont bother coming this way.
So some interesting points there, our action is responsible for the deaths and will not succeed. She argued essentially sending them to Rwanda would be effective on the basis no one wants to go there. But essentially the problem continues to be their right to claim assylum once they step foot in the UK. She implicitly acknowledged that they do have the legal tright to claim this if they can just get here. Its interesting we grant them that right, then try to physically prevent them claiming it. Thats....a form of toruture unacceptable under international law in itself?
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Post by alec on Aug 18, 2023 6:33:33 GMT
Meanwhile, here's the privatisation of the covid vaccine program - www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/17/covid-booster-jabs-approved-for-sale-to-uk-publicNote the comments of immunity expert Prof Danny Altman at the end of the article. It's the least well off that have been and will continue to be worse affected by this disease, and this will widen that divide. It's a terrible, terrible indictment of Labour and the left that most remain totally silent on this matter. In the US, the CDC is warning that repeat infections should be avoided. In Australia, Labour Party MPs are campaigning for clean air, and an end to hospital acquired infections that have a fatality rate of 10%. In the UK, silence. From the left, the right, and the centre. |
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Post by athena on Aug 18, 2023 6:34:57 GMT
...Finally, an observation on discussions with some of my social circle of late. Several are well-heeled and very comfortably off. Negligible or non-existent mortgages, large incomes and/or pensions, mid-late fifties onwards demographic. Unlike many of the population, the cost of living crisis, energy costs and mortgage rate increases have been a minor inconvenience, rather than the almost existential threat which some have, and will continue to, experience. In the absence of such grim reality, I see some are filling this void by getting themselves into a right old lather about 'woke' issues, regularly fuelled by getting much of their 'news' from the Mail online feed, thereby constantly reinforcing this indignant thought process. I have seen this happening first hand of late and really was quite shocked. My takeaway from this is that, for a relatively small demographic, probably less than c30% of the population, 'wokism'? is a very real issue, which I suspect the Sunak administration will do its utmost to shore up, since they make up a significant proportion of CON VI. I've been trying to understand why Sunak's Tories appear to be shifting to the right and pandering to their nasty tendency. Current Tory policies must have left a lot of ROC voters feeling politically homeless. Surely there would be more support for a more moderate platform? I wondered if the Tory party believes Starmer's Lab has the centrist vote sewn up? I regard Starmer's Lab as a centrist party, but the Lab party has enduring characteristics that put a ceiling on the votes it can attract from the centre-right (links with the trade union movement, recognition that the UK is an unequal society, comfortable with a bigger state and more pubicly controlled services). So there's still room for a moderate ROC party and at the moment the Tory party doesn't seem interested in occupying that space. Another possibility that occurred to me is that Johnson's purge really did change the party's identity permanently. I know next to nothing about the internal affairs of Conservatism so I've no idea whether this plausible or not. My final thought was that the key to the puzzle might be a change in where people get the information about politics and current affairs and how their political opinions are formed, so it's interesting to read that this doesn't quite with your experience. I wasn't thinking about Mail readers. I was contemplating how little I really know about the readership dynamics of modern media. Mainstream media don't dominate the landscape as they used to, so there could easily be diverse segments of voters out there who're getting their current affairs knowledge from corners of the Internet and social media that are terra incognita to me. Perhaps not enough of us are competent at sifting and parsing the surfeit of sources the Internet offers. Perhaps people who didn't grow up with the Internet and didn't get any media education at school are particularly vulnerable to disinformation. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 6:50:42 GMT
A professor graham zelik who used to be on the board of the CCRC and left in 2009 just said there was a considerable rise in their case load, presumably new DNA evidence has something to do with that, but no rise in their funding. It would seem logical that if they were only funded to look at 100 cases a year but received 1000, then they would be forced to ignore the extra 900. The new evidence in the Malkinson case would seem to have been part of a whole wave of new DNA evidence arriving at the same time because of technological advances.
Debating whether the chairman of the CCRC being only a part time job leading to a conflict of interest. Again, it all smacks of the service being underfunded so it is unable to properly investigate candidate cases.
The organisation is stil refusing to appear in interviews. Again, if their answer would be that they only had the resources to investigate a certain number of cases and so only picked what they considered the best prospects. Or that they thought it very likely DNA evidence would exhonerated many people, but they simply had to leave them in prison because they were unable to investigate them all. Then I can see why government would have ordered them not to appear. It seems they have explained their reasoning to the the law minister, who however also isnt talking.
It would not be a good look for government if it transpired CCRC had already complained they did not have enough resources to deal with their case load but had been refused more money. That would imply government had decided to leave innocent people in prison.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:29:13 GMT
I wonder if that is because it was fed a random selection of source material, and the overall bias of that material is what would be considered left wing. In other words, that politicians around the world tend to be more right wing than their populations? Or lefties post more because they're all garrulous little g-bsh-tes (not sure if that's offensive). Unlike me. 🤣 I think the suggestion above was more likely, the sort of people posting on the internet are of a social group more left wing than the whole of society. Which still doesnt invalidate my observation that it could still be more representative of society than are politicians as a whole. There has been a huge debate on here arguing labour isnt representing the left, has moved to the right for decades. The internet has changed how people can communicate with each other. It has broken down more social bariers than society had done before. Its possible to interact anonymously and safely in a way which prevents social pressure. People do not tell their real neighbours what they really think, for fear of falling out with them. Whereas on the internet people get to say what they really believe. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:31:33 GMT
There's an LOC joke about 'trickle down economics' that apparently 99% of people don't get but as an example of irony then voting LAB to 'kick the Tories out' will be a joke that a large part of 40%ish* of voters won't get.. well not find funny anyway  Its interesting how conservatives main attack line against labour has become that they are just as bad as us! Its a step change from con arguing they are good at managing the economy whereas labour are bad. I guss thats because the economic situation of the UK is today considerably worse than when con over from labour, at tat time claiming labour were incompetent. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:41:42 GMT
Wondering why you don't see so many babies The number of babies born in England and Wales in a year dropped in 2022 to the lowest level in two decades, according to official figures. It follows the recent trend of decreasing live births, which had been the case before the pandemic, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The number has been steadily decreasing for the past decade – returning to roughly the level seen in the early 2000s. It has recently recovered twice from relative lows – on that occasion, and in the mid-1970s – before reaching relative highs in 1990 and 2012. The ONS data, released on Thursday, showed there were 605,479 live births in England and Wales in 2022. That was down 3.1% from 624,828 in 2021 – and the lowest number since 2002, when there were 596,122. My daughter Izzie should be adding one to the total within the next few days🤗 Cause and effect my friend. Gordon Brown blasts Tories and Liberal Democrats over child tax credit cuts Labour leader Gordon Brown says he 'shocked and angry' over what he calls the opposition's 'coalition of cuts against children' www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/general-election-child-tax-creditsYou reap what you sow with your Tory mates. An extra fact for that story is that the group with most births is immigrants, and their proportion of the total births is steadily rising. What that means is having children is a decision which brits are choosing not to do, but the immigrants come with a different mindset.
Someone I know is interested in having children. But getting older, not for lack of trying no stable partner. Job to finance a home occupies days, no time to get pregnant and certainly no money to live on if they did. It often requires two incomes to finance a family, and thats hardly possible with time off to have those children. It has become a choice of either a home or kids. A trend the conservatives started when they decided to abolish cheap, good quality council housing. Its not about tax credits or child benefit, they are way to low to be decisive unless someone is a dropout from society or an outsider.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:44:09 GMT
Ipsos Mori on most important issues:
Public importance of climate change and the environment doubles to become the joint-third biggest issue facing the countryRather illustrates how quickly an issue can move in deemed importance. If there was a referendum to rejoin the EU in three months time, it would shoot straight back to the top of the list. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 18, 2023 7:47:19 GMT
alec You're entitled to your own opinion you don't get to criticise others for using the recorded international public health data from numerous countries because you don't like what they show, that's actually a tad insulting. But enough on this I have no intention of engaging any further on your pet subject. No need to reply. Meanwhile in traitor news , the cult leaders acolytes are engaged in wide spread witness and court official intimidation, with plausible death threats and numerous counts of racist abuse. The Georgia senate doesn't want to be left out with extreme maga wingnut State senator Colton Moore calling for the impeachment of Fulton county district attorney after indictment of ex-president. That's right the maga fascists want the prosecutor to be impeached for prosecuting the criminal and to cut all funding to the state prosecutors office. The GOP used to regard itself as the party of law and order , but like their Tory counterparts this doesn't extend to their own criminality. Here's a take from the MTN youtu.be/yQIujPC3ZvA
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:48:18 GMT
2) We will develop, and have the resources to build enough robots to do nearly all work including care for the elderly and create enough wealth to give everyone a living wage whether they work or not. The last bit seems very unlikely because more and more wealth seems to be being channelled to fewer and fewer people because of multi-nationals. There are plenty of stories about how mechanisation could replace workers, if we just chose to use it. The technology is there. However, the Uk has had a policy of cheap labour for, well, all my lifetime? Maybe not when I was young and we had wage boards and stronger unions, so lets say since the advent of Thatcher about 1980. It is rather unsurprising if we have a policy of cheap labour that the Uk has then failed to invest in mechanisation. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 18, 2023 7:53:56 GMT
Danny - "But in the end it will not save the NHS money, because they will still eventually sicken and die expensively." Real life doesn't actually work like that. Yes, everyone does eventually die, but the aggregate health burden, and consequent costs, are far greater for unhealthy people than for those who looked after their health. I have seen no evidence that is true. Unealthy people die quicker! All that happens is people die from different diseases which however cost just as much to treat, after claiming pensions and benefits for longer. Have you not noticed how retirement ages are going up because people are claiming pensions longer? Government at least argues this is unaffordable? So ok, its not just the NHS costs which have to be included. Also social care, pension and any other net costs from older people living longer. Spending on the NHS has never been higher, its problem is that there are simply more pensioners nowadays needing its services. And part of that is the success of the NHS keeping more and more alive through various medical crises so that they live to be pensioners. |
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Post by Mark on Aug 18, 2023 8:00:07 GMT
Well I blame the pill for allowing women to choose not to have babies. 😁 The eventual drop in population when this idea spreads to Africa and other fecund places will cause major problems which we in the West (and China) are already beginning to see. A relatively small number of workers will be supporting more and more retirees. Something will have to give. Possibilities: 1) The young will never be able to vote in a government that they want because they will always be heavily outnumbered. Therefore they will rebel and install dictators who will introduce voluntary and then compulsory euthanasia. Actually some of this happens unofficially anyway with Do Not Resuscitate notices over beds and the 'Liverpool pathway' in the NHS. 2) We will develop, and have the resources to build enough robots to do nearly all work including care for the elderly and create enough wealth to give everyone a living wage whether they work or not. The last bit seems very unlikely because more and more wealth seems to be being channelled to fewer and fewer people because of multi-nationals. There may be others. Maybe I've got this wrong, but, here in the UK, there was a huge spike in births following WWII. That generation are well into their 70s now. In 20 years time, there won't be that many of them still with us. The birth rate has fallen since then, but, held relatively steady..IE it hasn't continued to fall in any meaningful sense. Surely that means that the current situation of fewer younger people supporting greater numbers of older people will lessen in time. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 18, 2023 8:05:07 GMT
isa
An interesting post and I agree with much of what you say. My linking of your name with insomnia, by the way, was a piece of gratuitous alliteration rather than any implication that your posts had soporific effects on their readers! Perish the thought.
How affluence, and the living of a life largely devoid of any significant threats to ones material comforts, can influence political views has always intrigued me. The danger, and you have observed it, is that it can lead to people becoming inoculated from, and indifferent to, the lives led by people less fortunate than themselves. Their affluence can also afford them time to indulge and nurture perceived grievances. To imagine all sorts of outrages occurring in a world going to hell in a handcart. To think too that sinister forces are taking away all they hold dear. A moral panic and a fear of modernity. A ludicrous self-imposed siege mentality. Barbarians always at the gates. Invaders coming to get us.
There is nothing universal about this and some people who lead very comfortable and affluent lives recognise their essential good fortune, embrace the world and eschew the harbouring of grievance. They may try and change society in ways that make it more equal and where wellbeing and prosperity isn't so dependent on the fortune of birth, social class and inheritance.
People like this are often mocked by the right for their wokeism, middle class and effete liberalism and bleeding heart do-goodery, but I've always liked the idea of philanthropic class betrayal!
For example, I have absolutely no problem with Jeremy Corbyn's alleged comfortably off childhood and upbringing. Good on him for then going in to make a political career out of championing causes that helped the poor and deprived sectors of society. Ditto any other politician doing something similar.
It's politicians who think politics is about protecting affluence and privilege, and who pander to, and often generate, concocted fear who I tend to dislike.
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