birdseye
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Post by birdseye on Aug 14, 2023 20:02:50 GMT
That any of the responses saw either of them reducing the national debt shows the value of such polls. We have an Alice in Wonderland situation with dishonest politians offering totally unreal promisses and the public take a view on who will achieve them. Fantasy land! Who do we blame for that though? The politicians, public or press? Blame is pointless but really its all three. |
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Post by jib on Aug 14, 2023 20:10:57 GMT
JiB: "I've used the US $ which is a better measure of the value of the UK economy globally."Ah, OK. So in your world, UK GDP fell by 1.6% last year. Brexit going well, is it? It's far too early to make any sort of judgement on the Brexit + or -. However, we can be sure who sent people to the foodbanks and the impact of austerity has been profound. No wonder my dear friend keeps banging his Brexit drum. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 14, 2023 20:14:39 GMT
You appear to have missed the point here. Nobody was ever going to convince the extreme Leavers as represented by the ERG group, and they did indeed try every trick to confuse the issue. However, they were only able to get away with that because they were joined in the Division Lobbies by the extreme Remainers - Anna Soubry and Change UK , the LDs and the SNP. The ERG MPs owe them a great debt of gratitude - though much pain and suffering could have been avoided had the Remainers shown more political nous! The one thing everyone agreed upon was that the worst possible outcome was a compromise. But for very different reasons. One could equally say that had the hard line leave people chosen to accept an FTA deal, then it could have been made to stick longer term. Whereas going for broke with hard brexit, well, they will be going for broke. And therefore brexit will be undone, because it has to be. |
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birdseye
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Post by birdseye on Aug 14, 2023 20:15:55 GMT
Just saw this in the Telegraph YouGov threatens to quit London for New York as City exodus growsListing across the Atlantic would deal a fresh blow to the UK’s struggling stock market … “ The YouGov chief added that while the company had previously been too small to consider a listing in the US, it was now weighing up the move after buying a consumer data division from German market research group GfK in a €315m deal earlier this year.
He said: “Until recently, we’ve been too small. With the recent acquisition, that’s increased our size by 50pc overnight. I do feel that we could be introduced to a bigger market, [which] would be helpful.”
Mr Shakespeare this month moved to the role of chairman at YouGov, handing over as chief executive to former Meta executive Steve Hatch. Mr Shakespeare and his family own around 8pc of YouGov, which is valued at just over £1bn.” City exodus? Surely not? Brexit is going swimmingly. I doubt that is Brexit related so much as a function of the much higher valuations put on businesses in the USA. Why do you think that ARM was listed in the USA despite government efforts. Or indeed whyother high tec businesses have gone that way. The PE ratio in the S&P 500 is 23.46, whilst in London it is 10.4
Thats not to say that Brexit hasnt had an effect on trade but if you can sell the same business for twice as much in NY than in London, where are you going to go?
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Post by graham on Aug 14, 2023 20:19:20 GMT
You appear to have missed the point here. Nobody was ever going to convince the extreme Leavers as represented by the ERG group, and they did indeed try every trick to confuse the issue. However, they were only able to get away with that because they were joined in the Division Lobbies by the extreme Remainers - Anna Soubry and Change UK , the LDs and the SNP. The ERG MPs owe them a great debt of gratitude - though much pain and suffering could have been avoided had the Remainers shown more political nous! The one thing everyone agreed upon was that the worst possible outcome was a compromise. But for very different reasons. One could equally say that had the hard line leave people chosen to accept an FTA deal, then it could have been made to stick longer term. Whereas going for broke with hard brexit, well, they will be going for broke. And therefore brexit will be undone, because it has to be. Ken Clarke and most Remainer MPs did not take that view at all. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 14, 2023 20:27:38 GMT
More tory sleaze
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 14, 2023 20:31:49 GMT
Who do we blame for that though? The politicians, public or press? Blame is pointless but really its all three. An interesting holy trinity, but in fairness to the public, they are often dependent on the honesty and clarity of the media and the politicians to help them arrive at the best decisions on matters like EU membership. I think a lot of politicians, particularly those on the right, and the predominantly right wing press, served the public badly in terms of presenting an accurate representation of our membership of the EU. They essentially pandered to some people's prejudices and a seeming willingness amongst many to believe half-truths and lies. I suppose it comes down to a moral judgement. Do you blame the liar or the person who swallows the lie. You can be frustrated by some people's gullibility, but surely the blame must lie with the politicians and journalists who peddled what they knew to be falsehoods? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 14, 2023 20:40:44 GMT
Just seen this in the Times…
YouGov cools speculation on US listing
“Stephan Shakespeare, the company’s co-founder and chairman, had said in an interview that the company could move its primary listing or establish a secondary listing in America.
He told the Financial Times that America was “a natural base” and that its markets were better at supporting companies like YouGov.
However, the company said this morning: “The board routinely considers all its listing options, including a premium listing on the LSE [London Stock Exchange]. No decision has been made and a US listing is not being considered in the near term.””
(in case anyone was losing sleep over it…)
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Post by graham on Aug 14, 2023 21:00:38 GMT
Blame is pointless but really its all three. An interesting holy trinity, but in fairness to the public, they are often dependent on the honesty and clarity of the media and the politicians to help them arrive at the best decisions on matters like EU membership. I think a lot of politicians, particularly those on the right, and the predominantly right wing press, served the public badly in terms of presenting an accurate representation of our membership of the EU. They essentially pandered to some people's prejudices and a seeming willingness amongst many to believe half-truths and lies. I supposed it comes down to a moral judgement. Do you blame the liar or the person who swallows the lie. You can be frustrated by some people's gullibility, but surely the blame must lie with the politicians and journalists who peddled what they knew to be falsehoods? An issue as technical as EU membership should never have been handed to the electorate in such a simplistic way. At the very least, it should have included provision for a Confirmatory Vote in the event of a Vote to Leave in principle. It is greatly to Cameron's discredit that he failed to make provision for that. On wider economic issues few voters have an academic grounding even of the most basic kind in such matters. That also applies to many journalists and politicians. How many MPs could comfortably sit a traditional Economics A Level exam? I suspect that several hundred would struggle a fair bit. To an extent , that has always been a limitation of democracy - that we invite voters to choose on issues they only vaguely understand, and in respect of which only a few possess the critical analytical skills to arrive at firm judgements and to recognise when they are being fed a tissue of lies or nonsense. Earlier generations were less well educated - how easily were they hoodwinked? Doubtless politicians then relied much more widely on social deference.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 14, 2023 21:38:06 GMT
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Post by Rafwan on Aug 14, 2023 22:50:36 GMT
steve Thanks, but this is getting a bit thin isn't it? He had no reported activities on Saturday, Sunday, Bank Holiday Monday, Tuesday and Weds. And this was over THREE weeks before Referendum Day! You side with the pursed-lips nay-sayers who call it a "holiday" if you like (and in fact we really have no idea what he was actually doing). I call it a very sensible break, maybe with a bit of walking in the Welsh countryside, to prepare for the full heat of the coming campaign. Please! Every dog on the street knew Corbyn had no enthusiasm for the remain campaign. If he didn't go on holiday for as long as is alleged he may as well have gone because his interventions had little impact and everyone knew he was indifferent regarding the outcome. My experience is that people who say “everyone knew …” generally turn out to mean “nobody actually knew this at all”. ESPECIALLY the ones with dogs in the street. I have no idea what difference Corbyn may or may not have made, but we do know, courtesy of YouGov, that Labour voters split 65/35 in favour of remain, which was fairly close to LibDems on 68/32. God, how many MORE times does it have to be said? |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 14, 2023 23:15:27 GMT
I see this Badenoch plan for segregated loos in England is labelled as being "to protect women and elderly people".
My wife and I are both "elderly people". When next we venture into Ingurland, precisely how am I going to be protected - and against what or whom? My wife, being a woman, is already covered by the first category so, if there is a shred of sense in the proposal, it must mean that elderly men, going into an English toilet are under threat.
Do those of you who are males in the UK's largest polity fear entering a toilet? and do you avoid any risk by copying your water companies and just having a shite in a river (thus avoiding the middle man)?
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Post by mercian on Aug 14, 2023 23:52:20 GMT
(c) The sad truth is that the last time Labour won an election on a leftish agenda was 1974 - almost half a century ago. Midnight with Mercian is back! I know my fans have missed it, and it's back because I've been out playing chess. That might be true of Labour, but from my point of view the Tories have won several elections with a leftish agenda since then. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 15, 2023 0:02:58 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w There are no countries in the European union with smaller economies than prior to covid. The U.K. does. Of course there's variation between member states but the eurozone's 20 members are expected to grow by 1.1% on average and 1.6% next year. By comparison, the UK economy is expected to be weaker, with growth of 0.25% expected this year and 1% in 2024, according to the Bank of England. Is it some sort of competition? Even if all those forecasts turn out to be correct, so what? Our economy would still be growing, albeit slowly. It would be interesting to see a country by country breakdown. I would expect comparable large mature EU economies such as those of France and Germany to be growing at a slower rate than the average. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 15, 2023 0:12:11 GMT
Pedantry alert but see my earlier post: ""The Court of Appeals decided sending anyone to Rwanda would constitute a breach of Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights, "with which parliament has required that the government must comply"."Your dates are correct and hence why folks state ECtHR when they mean 'Court' and ECHR when they mean 'Convention'.... Is any of this really relevant? The 1951 refugee convention... My reply was specific to Article 3 of the ECHR and the UK Supreme Court and ECtHR decision that will likely occur in the near future (and probably before GE'24, although the ECtHR might drag on a bit) See also my post that shows UK is an 'outlier' on acceptance rates: Global average acceptance rate is "about 21%"* "The EU+ recognition rate was 40 % in 2022"** UK's is an outlier with an acceptance rate of 86%*** ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/96663/threadWRT to the UNHCR then see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_Relating_to_the_Status_of_Refugees#Noncompliance IIRC the UN has already tried 'public shaming' WRT to UK and other polities and as the link states: "To date, those have not proven to be significant deterrents"NB As also stated many times then my preference would be for UK to stay part of an updated/clarified ECHR that could happen before ECtHR cases but probably only after (and possibly with UK being outside of the current ECHR for a while). Similar for the non-binding UNHCR which is 'out of date' and not fit for purpose in the modern era. Conventions/treaties are often updated when circumstances require an update. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 15, 2023 0:18:51 GMT
Someone was quoted as saying 'this is an epidemic of old fat men', because that was who was in hospital with covid. They must have been weaklings. I fall into the category of 'old fat men'. When I got it I was pretty ropey for a day, spent mostly in an armchair not bed, and it gradually faded until I was better after a week. I put my robust health down to light smoking and plenty of alcohol. Get your health tips here! |
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Post by mercian on Aug 15, 2023 0:30:00 GMT
And therefore brexit will be undone, because it has to be. You really do live in la-la land. We are where we are. It won't change at all for at least the next parliament even if Starmer does one of his u-turns on day one because it will take years of negotiations even if the EU were interested. Brexit was a significant issue for I think it was 8% of voters in a recent poll that was posted. Only a few fanatics (mostly on this board) care any more. You will probably say that Cost of Living concerns for instance are because of Brexit but even if it was true, the voters don't think so. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 15, 2023 0:32:30 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w There are no countries in the European union with smaller economies than prior to covid. The U.K. does. Of course there's variation between member states but the eurozone's 20 members are expected to grow by 1.1% on average and 1.6% next year. By comparison, the UK economy is expected to be weaker, with growth of 0.25% expected this year and 1% in 2024, according to the Bank of England. Is it some sort of competition? Even if all those forecasts turn out to be correct, so what? Our economy would still be growing, albeit slowly. It would be interesting to see a country by country breakdown. I would expect comparable large mature EU economies such as those of France and Germany to be growing at a slower rate than the average. I'm not a gopher but UK data from ONS: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukeaThere are various measures applied somewhat differently by each country but there is very little between the 4 European G7 countries - Italy having a rare 'above average' period but they've got some pretty serious structural issues so I doubt will last long. Ideally we can break out of the 'slow growth' model of developed Western European countries that we experienced as part of the EU but we've had quite a series of 'crises' in the last few years and on stuff like 'nat.gas' then UK was hit pretty bad, hardly great on Covid either, militant unions how being a bit of a bother... We'll see what the future brings and it's a sadly disappointing offering from Rishi-CON or Starmer-LAB at the moment but thankfully no major UK wide party has any interest in going back to the past to see how things go inside the EU and hope for a different economic result next time - trying the same thing and expecting different results being an 'insane' thing to do. |
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Post by mercian on Aug 15, 2023 0:35:18 GMT
An interesting holy trinity, but in fairness to the public, they are often dependent on the honesty and clarity of the media and the politicians to help them arrive at the best decisions on matters like EU membership. I think a lot of politicians, particularly those on the right, and the predominantly right wing press, served the public badly in terms of presenting an accurate representation of our membership of the EU. They essentially pandered to some people's prejudices and a seeming willingness amongst many to believe half-truths and lies. I supposed it comes down to a moral judgement. Do you blame the liar or the person who swallows the lie. You can be frustrated by some people's gullibility, but surely the blame must lie with the politicians and journalists who peddled what they knew to be falsehoods? An issue as technical as EU membership should never have been handed to the electorate in such a simplistic way. At the very least, it should have included provision for a Confirmatory Vote in the event of a Vote to Leave in principle. It is greatly to Cameron's discredit that he failed to make provision for that. On wider economic issues few voters have an academic grounding even of the most basic kind in such matters. That also applies to many journalists and politicians. How many MPs could comfortably sit a traditional Economics A Level exam? I suspect that several hundred would struggle a fair bit. To an extent , that has always been a limitation of democracy - that we invite voters to choose on issues they only vaguely understand, and in respect of which only a few possess the critical analytical skills to arrive at firm judgements and to recognise when they are being fed a tissue of lies or nonsense. Earlier generations were less well educated - how easily were they hoodwinked? Doubtless politicians then relied much more widely on social deference.
If only the voters could be as wise and knowledgeable as you. Perhaps we should consider restricting the franchise? |
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Post by mercian on Aug 15, 2023 0:37:39 GMT
I see this Badenoch plan for segregated loos in England is labelled as being "to protect women and elderly people".
My wife and I are both "elderly people". When next we venture into Ingurland, precisely how am I going to be protected - and against what or whom? My wife, being a woman, is already covered by the first category so, if there is a shred of sense in the proposal, it must mean that elderly men, going into an English toilet are under threat.
Do those of you who are males in the UK's largest polity fear entering a toilet? and do you avoid any risk by copying your water companies and just having a shite in a river (thus avoiding the middle man)? Only French toilets - see my post yesterday. 🤣 That's all folks! You've been a lovely audience. Enjoy waking up to the pearls of wisdom. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 15, 2023 1:00:54 GMT
(c) The sad truth is that the last time Labour won an election on a leftish agenda was 1974 - almost half a century ago. Midnight with Mercian is back! I know my fans have missed it, and it's back because I've been out playing chess. That might be true of Labour, but from my point of view the Tories have won several elections with a leftish agenda since then. Given you are very right wing I suppose it could look that way. Bit like an elephant would look small to a blue whale, but it doesn't mean they are. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 15, 2023 1:15:11 GMT
Ah well PJ, you just said “loser”, you didn’t say anything about mitigating circumstances (which strangely don’t seem to apply when the left lose after the right in the party shaft them, or when the right win after being gifted a Tory meltdown). Starmer wasn’t doing so well till the Tory meltdown over partygate and Truss. The lesson is the right only win after a Tory meltdown and the Left got close with a more centre left manifesto. (And the Tories had to change leader and shift left in response). If only the right in the party hadn’t opposed them… Corbyn was gifted a meltdown by May running the worst campaign in living memory in 2017 and still finished 55 seats behind her. As has been pointed out many times on this site, Johnson was not personally popular in 2019, with much of the public doubtful about him, but still got an 80 seat majority. Thatcher and the Conservatives were never wildly popular throughout the 1980s but they kept walloping Labour. Blair and Starmer have benefited from Tory meltdowns, but you still have to be positioned to take advantage. Who seriously, genuinely and honestly believes a Corbyn led Labour would be 20 points ahead in the polls now? (If anyone does, I would advise getting out more and talking to some ordinary, not very political, voters). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 15, 2023 4:16:47 GMT
Ah well PJ, you just said “loser”, you didn’t say anything about mitigating circumstances (which strangely don’t seem to apply when the left lose after the right in the party shaft them, or when the right win after being gifted a Tory meltdown). Starmer wasn’t doing so well till the Tory meltdown over partygate and Truss. The lesson is the right only win after a Tory meltdown and the Left got close with a more centre left manifesto. (And the Tories had to change leader and shift left in response). If only the right in the party hadn’t opposed them… Corbyn was gifted a meltdown by May running the worst campaign in living memory in 2017 and still finished 55 seats behind her. As has been pointed out many times on this site, Johnson was not personally popular in 2019, with much of the public doubtful about him, but still got an 80 seat majority. Thatcher and the Conservatives were never wildly popular throughout the 1980s but they kept walloping Labour. Blair and Starmer have benefited from Tory meltdowns, but you still have to be positioned to take advantage. Who seriously, genuinely and honestly believes a Corbyn led Labour would be 20 points ahead in the polls now? (If anyone does, I would advise getting out more and talking to some ordinary, not very political, voters). It’s a nonsense to say TM had a meltdown, the campaign might not have been perfect but she got 42% of the vote! Six percent more than Cameron even, who nonetheless secured an overall majority against your favourite leader! (You haven’t attempted an excuse for why Miliband doesn’t count re: “loser” yet). Whether or not Johnson was personally popular might be interesting but not very relevant to the point: regardless of popularity, Tory polling turned around quite a lot with him standing for leader, having been behind Corbyn shortly before the change, to becoming substantially ahead. (For example, even if some may not have cared for him much they might have liked the policy pitch, whether it was “get Brexit done”, “Levelling up” or summat else) I don’t think Corbyn would be anything like 20 points ahead now, because he has been trashed a lot by the media etc. (and even Blair has been below Corbyn in some polling in more recent times) but if it were 2017 he might be somewhat closer and might improve rather in the six week campaign proper. (As you know from our prior exchange, I think Corbyn should maybe have stood aside before the 2019 election so they had a new leader relatively untarnished. Of course changing leader doesn’t always work, as Tories found out with the Trussterf*ck). |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 15, 2023 5:31:20 GMT
41 count criminal indictment in Fulton county.
19 defendants , the traitor is first among scumbags.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 15, 2023 5:40:15 GMT
The indictments brand the disgraced former president as head of a criminal organisation. He is the crapo de crapo youtu.be/su6kCDnHN3k |
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 15, 2023 5:59:47 GMT
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Post by alec on Aug 15, 2023 6:55:17 GMT
For those interested, here's some more on what is being termed variant BA.X - It has as many mutations as Omicron, mostly on the binding domain (the spike) so shouldn't have any problems evading immunity. It's got no connection to the XBB family, which this year's boosters are based exclusively on, so it's an open question just how effective the vaccines would be if it takes off. That's the big question though; this is genuinely the potentially worst variant we've seen in circulation (other than individual samples from wastewater originating from chronically infected people that don't spread) but we don't yet have any idea if the mutations have reduced it's transmissibility.
Edit: Just to reiterate, the reason this one is ringing the variant watchers alarm bells is because it has been found in two countries simultaneously, with no apparent direct connection between the cases, suggesting it is already circulating. Both countries have unusually high levels of sequencing, which suggests that the variant could already be in many other countries, but not picked up due to low levels of monitoring.
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Post by barbara on Aug 15, 2023 6:55:38 GMT
Blame is pointless but really its all three. An interesting holy trinity, but in fairness to the public, they are often dependent on the honesty and clarity of the media and the politicians to help them arrive at the best decisions on matters like EU membership. I think a lot of politicians, particularly those on the right, and the predominantly right wing press, served the public badly in terms of presenting an accurate representation of our membership of the EU. They essentially pandered to some people's prejudices and a seeming willingness amongst many to believe half-truths and lies. I supposed it comes down to a moral judgement. Do you blame the liar or the person who swallows the lie. You can be frustrated by some people's gullibility, but surely the blame must lie with the politicians and journalists who peddled what they knew to be falsehoods? Or as James O'Brien on LBC says, "Contempt for the conmen, compassion for the conned." |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 15, 2023 6:56:22 GMT
Unfortunately not surprised by this, I remember Sunak boasting about how much extra money he got off the tax payer for his relatively wealthy Constituency www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/15/funding-of-public-services-in-england-skewed-against-poor-areas-ifs-levelling-up'The government’s levelling up plans for England are being hampered by a funding system that is “not fit for purpose” and deprives the poorest areas of the financial support to match their needs, a leading thinktank has said. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that the method for allocating money to pay for public services is out of date, based on inadequate data and skewed in favour of the better-off south-east' The IFS said the differences in geographical spending were especially stark for local government, after repeated delays to reform the funding system. The most deprived 20% of areas received 9% less than their estimated needs while the least deprived 20% received 15% more. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 15, 2023 7:01:16 GMT
Midnight with Mercy Man has now been replaced by Breakfast with the born-again Befuddled Badger. He will live again, briefly, between the hours of 7 and 9
Here's my starter for this morning's array of treats.
This council by-election didn't get the attention it deserves last week. Labour, Lib Dems and Independents ripping it up in Evesham.
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