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Post by ptarmigan on Jul 21, 2023 23:29:56 GMT
By-elections:
Somerton & Frome and Selby & Ainsty. Very impressive wins for the Lib Dems and Labour respectively. Tories are in a hole. I saw the Lib Dems were out celebrating with a glitter cannon. Genuinely really enjoy their fulsome commitment to these ridiculous stunts.
Uxbridge & S Ruislip. A disappointing result for a couple of reasons, I think. Firstly, because the ULEZ element will embolden some elements of the Right and possibly the Tory party to weaponise climate issues. Secondly, because I can see Labour scaling back their Green commitments in response to this. Disappointing but unsurprising to see Starmer undermining the Mayor of London in the wake of defeat too, especially given it's a policy that he's previously on record as supporting. This is one of the reasons why many are so sceptical of him and his leadership - he has a tendency to fold like a pack of cards at the merest hint of Tory pressure, and I think it's really shabby to throw Khan under the metaphorical bus given how much vitriol he receives from far right cranks. But I digress... honestly, I really don't think Labour should be spooked by this result. It's not exactly a traditional happy hunting ground, they won Selby (probably a much better barometer) on the same night and it sounds as though the ULEZ issue was a big doorstep issue in the way it's unlikely to be when it comes to a general election. No need to panic, frankly, and I suspect ULEZ expansion will be one of those things where, after its introduction, people will wonder what all the fuss was about. There ought to be real scope for Labour in pointing out Tory hypocrisy on this matter too. ULEZ, of course, started life under Johnson, and Grant Shapps actually made the ULEZ expansion a requirement of the TFL funding agreement! If Labour had the courage of its convictions it would be going on the attack not whimpering about needing to have a rethink.
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Post by mercian on Jul 21, 2023 23:31:16 GMT
The daily express reported to be honest reasonably fairly the largest lead for wrong to leave the European union recorded in a poll by yougov this week. It showed 57% wrong to leave 32% right. Not happy with the result they conducted a poll of their own online readers. It showed 62% wrong to leave 38% right. Sunakered declares he's delivering on the " many Brexit benefits " This is because of the relentless tide of propaganda from the BBC in particular. I had a drink with an old friend last night who is more or less opposite to me politically. At one stage he was gloating about Farage losing his Coutts account and went on to say how terrible Brexit was. When I challenged him as to how he had been negatively affected he couldn't come up with anything. He's a reasonably intelligent person (my age but with a degree) so he's not a moron, just misguided. |
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 23:33:34 GMT
Many take the view that Labour lost the elections of 1997, 2001 and 2005 because the Governments formed were Tory in all but name. Tbf, those many are idiots. Because they take a different view to you based on he evidence available to them? |
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Post by eor on Jul 21, 2023 23:38:28 GMT
The 2017 election was all about Brexit, as indeed 2019. Did you somehow not hear about brexit? About how it was streets ahead in polling on what mattered to voters? Similarly it wasnt corbyn who mattered but labour identifying as the remain party. By 2019 labour had frankly lost that label as it was desperately spinning to appeal to both remainers and leavers. In my opinion, this cost it perhaps not a victory in 2019, but at least a closer parity with MPs to con. Refusing to adopt a strong remain line lost lab that election. And similarly lab right now stands for little. It may be true there arent enough strong remainers now to win an election, although that really hasnt been demonstrated because there is no party offering this. But labour doesnt have any other cause either to use to rally opposition to con. Yes, it has time, and I think Blair too tried to keep his powder dry till the last moment. But we really arent seeing lab offering more than tory light. Which didn't do it for the libs.
Polling suggest libs are likely to win a seat tonight. There is no way this suggests the nation loves labour.
You do have a weird take on reality. Labour have not identified as the Remain party. Silly mercian - you just need to listen to Danny and then it's all very clear. In the campaign, the Tories were for Remain because they secretly needed us to Leave. Then after the result they were for Brexit because they secretly wanted to Remain. Then they oversaw actual leaving, because they're positioning themselves to be the party of rejoining. It's very frustrating that more people can't understand how obvious this all is. |
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Post by eor on Jul 21, 2023 23:43:27 GMT
Hi athena , I live in outer London, and it is very much an issue atm, largely due to the fact the Tories are exploiting it rather than supporting it. Not all Tories are happy with this, but opposition to ULEZ is going to be a centre plank of the Tory campaign in the Mayoral election next year. One point about the ULEZ extension I have picked up on is that because the London Mayor has installed the ULEZ cameras on traffic lights that TfL controls i.e. those on main "A" roads, a side-effect of extending ULEZ will be to encourage rat-running through residential roads. Not just residential roads, but country lanes and tiny hamlets that are Out rather than In on some of the borders too. I think a lot of people outside London don't realise how rural large swathes of a few of the Outer boroughs actually are. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 21, 2023 23:45:55 GMT
Selby and Ainsty with a 24% swing, was seat 237th on Labour's target list. Somerton and Frome with a 29% swing was 57th on Lib Dems target list. Average swing away from the Tories 21% Sunakered claims victory! Rafwan I am a strong supporter of clean air initiatives the problem with Khan's extension of the ULEZ zone was offering no compensation for the large number of diesel and commercial and car drivers who drive vehicles as new as just 7-8 years old. Many of these vehicles would meet the appropriate emission standards it's simply that the emissions standards tested at the time of manufacture were different Euro 5 not Euro 6 My own Ford Mondeo 2015 model was tested at EURO 5 and therefore would attract the £12 charge and yet it's emissions are exactly the same as a 2016,17,18,19 model of exactly the same car that wouldn't. Khan was effectively asking people to throw away vehicles that in some instances both met the emissions standards and were worth upwards of £20,000( not my old Mondeo I should add). It smacked of unfairness. He would have been better served to use the Euro 5 standard for diesel in which case the age criteria at around 16 years would have been the same for both petrol and diesel. A bit of a balls up by a normally shrewd politician and it cost Labour the seat. Why would he use Euro anything? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 21, 2023 23:48:55 GMT
steve Few policies are perfectly executed, especially complex ones like climate, etc. If you wait for perfection you will never do anything. And yes there will be risks attached. Consequences rarely fall evenly and fairly. But my experience is that if you campaign with unity, and make the effort to explain and argue, and explicitly call upon people to recognise and accept consequences, they are much more likely to be prepared to run with you. But here you had the opposite, with the mayor firm in approach but the candidate weak at the knees. Of course it is going to turn a lot of people off. The right strategy here would have been aggressively pro-ULEZ. Start with a leaflet, banner-headed “ULEZ will save N lives every month, including Y in Uxbridge”. In other words just make stuff up? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 0:10:13 GMT
Why under the Uk constitution would we need a referendum to rejoing the EU? We've just joined CPTPP without any referendum, so there is a recent precedent. Big difference. One is a trade deal, the other involves becoming part of a supra-national entity. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 0:24:13 GMT
Then there was Ed Miliband beating his brother. And Gordon Brown. All guilty of causing Johnson Truss & Sunak by losing. Yes, they were guilty of causing Tory governments by losing elections, which involves being less popular than the other lot. As I have noted before, I turned 18 in 1979 and there have been 11 General Elections in that period of which Labour has managed to win a frankly pathetic 3 - all by Tony Blair, widely loathed on this site. I can't help feeling that many people in Labour prefer losing - much easier to maintain the purity of one's conscience without the tiresome need to actually exercise power. Meanwhile the Tories loot the country to enrich themselves and their mates. Since we like a sporting reference here, it is a bit like a football team losing every match but congratulating themselves with the thought that they played the more stylish football. Personally, I'd settle for a few dull, defensive 1-0 wins. Same as cricket. Perhaps not so much nowadays but England selectors always seemed to prefer elegant batsmen to effective ones. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 0:26:39 GMT
graham “ Do you really find it difficult to imagine Braverman happily working as a staff member to Himmler or Heydrich? *She is widely referred to as 'Cruella.'* “ Ah well, that is obviously convincing proof that she would definitely have worked with the worst of the Nazis 80 to 90 years ago. Even wb61 would surely convict given that nickname. You really do live in the weirdest, most judgmental world I can begin to imagine. It is increasingly bizarre, worrying and ugly to read - very little different in tone to the worst of the mad QAnon, right wing loonies in America. We all have our internal code of ethics and apply judgements to individuals and events as we meet them in life. Terms such as 'Evil' are inherently subjective and the use of them is likely to be closely related to a person's core beliefs. I doubt that Himmler, Heydrich and Eichmann perceived their activities - I mean crimes - to have been 'Evil.' I certainly view them as such - as I suspect do well over 99% of those who are aware of them. I do not hesitate to apply the term to those who wilfully seek to inflict pain and suffering on others - and that does sometimes include democratically elected politicians who pay no regard to the plight of those facing dire unfortunate circumstances whilst seeking to appeal to the base instincts of sections of society in the hope of gaining personal advancement. Martin Webster of the National Front I have long associated with the forces of Evil - and whilst he never succeeded in obtaining sufficient electoral support to wield significant political power himself,his views and prejudices are well represented in the ranks of those who sustain the present Government - some of whom are proud to serve as senior Cabinet Ministers. I met Martin Webster about 50 years ago. I wasn't impressed. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 0:35:01 GMT
I think this comes back to the old thing about the left being idealists and the Tories being pragmatists. There are parties further right who are idealists. It is only when Labour become pragmatic that they have a chance. Starmer is playing that game and because of my 13-year rule Labour will win next time. Barring major events such as outright war with Russia it is just a question of how much they will win by. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 22, 2023 0:45:17 GMT
You do have a weird take on reality. Labour have not identified as the Remain party. Silly mercian - you just need to listen to Danny and then it's all very clear. In the campaign, the Tories were for Remain because they secretly needed us to Leave. Then after the result they were for Brexit because they secretly wanted to Remain. Then they oversaw actual leaving, because they're positioning themselves to be the party of rejoining. It's very frustrating that more people can't understand how obvious this all is. Brilliant! 🤣 Sorry for all the posts folks, but I only came on late at night and there was a lot to catch up on. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 22, 2023 5:06:57 GMT
Starmer's reaction on the ULEZ proposals re the Uxbridge result will encourage the Tories to extend and deepen the "Culture War":
The question is how far Starmer will retreat in the face of it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 5:07:28 GMT
mercian had a drink with an old friend last night who is more or less opposite to me politically.. When I challenged him as to how he had been negatively affected ( by leaving the European union) he couldn't come up with anything. " Maybe you should ask when they're not drunk or passed out. I can think of at least three , loss of freedom of movement related that have personally impacted me and my family without any reference to the wider loss of rights and the catastrophic impact the act of stupidity has had on the UK economy. If I was pissed I could probably think of a lot more. The EURO in relation to vehicle emissions is just the accepted international measures of car emissions and the standard vehicles have to meet. If U.K. vehicle manufacturers didn't meet them they couldn't sell their vehicles anywhere in the European union or indeed much of the rest of the world and their products would be poisoning us.
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 5:12:26 GMT
grahamI thought I'd provide a detailed and comprehensive list of the achievements in Government of Labour under those icons of the left Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn. Here it is: Truly impressive.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 5:41:30 GMT
I met Martin Webster about 50 years ago. I wasn't impressed. Too left wing? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 5:48:49 GMT
Regarding Starmer's Labour I think he's been a severe disappointment in terms of a chronic lack of ambition.
However there's no denying that he's placed Labour in a position after the two defeats under Corbyn the most recent the worst General election performance by Labour since the 1930's where in less than a parliament they are 20 points ahead of the incumbents and massive odds on favourites to be the next government.
He has of course been aided and abetted by the worst UK government since the introduction of universal suffrage.
The anyone but Tory, especially these Tories vote is huge.
The recent local and by elections have flagged up some elements that are from my point of view hopeful and could mitigate the negativity of a overwhelming majority for Labour based on a minority of the votes cast.
It seems to me both disaffected middle ground Tories see more positives in voting for the liberal democrats than a switch to Labour and Green supporters understand that if they ever want more representation than the one Brighton MP they need a party with influence committed to fair voting reform and the only game in town U.K. wide is the liberal democrats.
In addition where the liberal democrats are perceived as in with the best chance of winning Labour supporters have had no difficulty in lending us their votes , given that we stand for more Labour principles than the current Labour party leadership, not remotely surprising.
These elements mean there's a chance , I wouldn't put it higher than that of something unique at the next general election, where despite a substantial lead in the national opinion polls over all other parties, in the 90 odd seats where the liberal democrats are second to the Tories or even when they are perceived as the most likely to dislodge them even if currently in third place that voting patterns are different.
Somerton was 57th on the liberal democrat target list if similar focus on the most plausible anti Tory vote occurs at the general election we could see the electorate play the first past the post system and see our party with around 15% of the national vote actually return an appropriate number of MPs.
I don't think it likely but this could produce 80+ wins and makes the possibility of a Labour minority government having to give serious thought to far more progressive policies on voting and our relationship with Europe.
Most Labour supporters and a fair few Tories wouldn't have any problem with that outcome either.
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 6:40:35 GMT
Government spokesman says by elections show result of next election is 'open'.
Just need to concentrate on issues like boat people and Rwanda.
I thought it interesting how he concentrated on the same issue under two different names. Which is a constructed issue where the government seems unlikely to be able to carry out its plan and so will claim at the time of an election it could have solved this problem if only it had not been thwarted by evil judges.
The other suggestion seems to be to exploit the split in labour on the london pollution zone. Whichever side you are on mayor says good while candidate says bad. Ironic if after trying to not scare voters, labour falls over on incompetently applying a green issue when in general these are popular.
Labours biggest problem remains that it has no cause. Blair essentially invented a cause which i dont recall existing of education. Cameron adopted brexit and pushed it through. Brown slagged off horrible women. Corbyn could only half heartedly suport remain. (Though probably his mps are to blame there too)
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 6:46:29 GMT
ULEZ, of course, started life under Johnson, and Grant Shapps actually made the ULEZ expansion a requirement of the TFL funding agreement! knowing full well it would be unpopular? |
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Post by alec on Jul 22, 2023 6:54:56 GMT
Those dozy bumfaces at the Daily Mail really need to go on a statistics course. Headline "Prices Must Drop Now Inflation Has Fallen".
Thick as mince, these journos.
Meanwhile, in Japan, a new variant has been identified and we are starting to see school closures because so many children are sick with covid. Cases reported as surging in S Korea also, so clearly not a winter seasonality as many had predicted. Could be something, could be nothing. I'm sure everything will be cool. Nothing we can't ignore.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 7:04:36 GMT
More Brexit bonus news if you don't like bicycles
Another British bike company goes under, citing Brexit trade barriers as a majo factor
Following distributors Moore and Large, and 2Pure, another UK bike company, FLi Distribution, has ceased trading this year. The news was first reported by Cycling Industry News and confirmed on social media by company owner, Col Williams as he cites post-Brexit issues as the main reason for the company closure.
In a post published yesterday on Linkedin with the words, "FLi is done", Williams writes, "If you voted for Brexit, please realise this is 90% because of your decision back in 2016." Later in his statement he adds, "I'm done fighting, I'm done with the red tape and the barriers to trade. It hasn't been fun for some time, so the time was right to end it now, life is too short."
Speaking Cycling Weekly, Williams said he realized that the British referendum vote to the EU could have big repercussions for FLi as soon as it was announced in June 2016. "I woke up in Austria [where KTM is based] on the morning of the referendum result and really felt then that if we left the Single Market it would spell the end for my business," he said.
January 2021 saw statutes regarding the UK's interactions with the EU come into force. But given the Covid-19 pandemic, it took two years for the full impact of Brexit to be revealed – given the lockdown boom in cycling sales and the contraction that followed, Williams says. "Once we realized it simply wasn't possible to offer the service we wanted, there was no option other than to close."
All employees are likely to lose their jobs.
I presume Mercians comatose pub buddy wasn't one of them.
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Post by moby on Jul 22, 2023 7:06:10 GMT
The whole tory populist takeover was greatly assisted by Corbyn's leadership yes. Plenty of other factors as well though. The distinguishing feature of Corbyn’s leadership was that it was a bit lefty. That is certainly Blair’s view, widely expressed. So the logic of this argument seems to be that anything a bit lefty will lead to the Tory populism of Johnson and Truss. I simply don’t believe that to be the case. No the distinguishing feature of Corbyn's leadership was that he was a shite leader who led a shadow cabinet of second raters because few talented people would join. He was an average constituency MP who spent his time campaigning for things he was interested in. He found himself elected as leader by accident and then we (Labour Party members) were subsequently subjected to the inevitable humiliation of two election defeats. Things are looking a lot better now though. |
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 7:07:18 GMT
When I challenged him as to how he had been negatively affected he couldn't come up with anything. He's a reasonably intelligent person (my age but with a degree) so he's not a moron, just misguided. interesting question. Personally i have mostly been affected by the rise in inflation caused by brexit. Secondly i guess by the shrinking nhs. My neighbours have been seriously affected because of losing rights to live in their house in spain when they want to, and a friend of a friend has similarly had to cancel plans to go live there. Many people have been affected in a small way by loss of rights to live and travel in europe and some in a big way. Much of the pain is never going to be felt by people our age in or near retirement though. The real damage is going to be to the economy. The initial effects of this have been masked by the loss of workers and pre existing labour shortage. Or by now we would be seeing soaring unemployment AS WELL AS inflation. As things stand industry is quietly shrinking and impacting government revenues and the massive growing deficit. This is just being stuffed on the national credit card but a day of reckoning will arrive. It may have already done so, the question for government is how to drag out damage limitation until con lose responsibility. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 7:08:13 GMT
hiretonStarmer has yet to find a cause he won't run away from. It might secure the hard of thinking vote but it's massively depressing.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 22, 2023 7:34:40 GMT
Not sure the Tories ditched May because Corbyn was outpolling her. She hadn't long beaten him in a General Election and I don't think the Tories were at all spooked by Corbyn's Labour outpolling them at that early stage in the Parliament. Wasn't May's defenestration much more to do with her Brexit struggles and a very clever coup by Johnson and his army of followers and flatterers? Johnson was on manoeuvres quite soon after May won in 2017. I think it may be a stretch to suggest Corbyn's polling was a factor. Counterintuitively, could it be argued that Corbyn's polling was boosted by May's increasing haplessness in office rather than anything much he was doing himself? I know this argument is applied to Starmer now. That he is an unwitting beneficiary of the Tory Government's woes and deserves little credit for his and his party's advancement in the polls. Or am I being a little unfair to Corbyn and that after 2017 he was making the political weather? Corbyn was on a very steep rising trend in the campaign and it continued for a little while immediately after and he was ahead in the polling for some months. May took the lead for a little while after that, then Corbyn took the lead again and was leading just before the Tories changed leader. May’s struggles over Brexit may have played a part, but so what? Partygate and Trussgate played a part recently for Starmer to benefit. It took someone like Boris to turn things round, and bear in mind even after all the partygate Shenanigans, Johnson was still only about 7 percent or summat behind when Tories binned him and instantly put themselves back in the hole again. I don’t think Corbyn was making all the political weather, but his being ahead likely played a part in Tories changing leader, and the popularity of some left wing policies may have influenced Tories tacking left. (Those who think Corbyn may have played a part in the EU ref outcome also seem to think he made some political weather there, though they may not be very pleased about it). But actually, while some took my exploring of the 2017 GE as bigging up Corbyn, that wasn’t my point. The point was rather that if we go with the idea Corbyn wasn’t much cop, then it suggests in turn that some left wing policies were really quite popular regardless. IIRC a lot of people thought LAB'17 manifesto was pretty good. Not OTT but plenty of good policies. LAB did well in GE'17 'despite' Corbyn. Different into GE'19 and we've gone over that sssssoooo many times. LAB GE'19 manifesto was OTT; 'establishment' and press had shat a brick about the idea of Corbyn as PM; RW of LAB were undermining LAB + folks wanted to 'Get Brexit Done'. TBC what comes out of LAB conflab this weekend but into a GE then folks will look at the policies and if Starmer is anti 'tree huggers' and 'green shit' (his terms apparently), using the Uxbridge result to row even back on tackling climate change then folks might start to realise than Starmer-LAB is not the LAB they voted for in GE'17 or GE'19. Of course for some CON'19 then they might like Starmer-LAB and that, IMO, seems to be the voter group that Starmer is desperate to win - no matter what the cost to 'principles' and 'policy'. |
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Post by moby on Jul 22, 2023 7:34:55 GMT
The daily express reported to be honest reasonably fairly the largest lead for wrong to leave the European union recorded in a poll by yougov this week. It showed 57% wrong to leave 32% right. Not happy with the result they conducted a poll of their own online readers. It showed 62% wrong to leave 38% right. Sunakered declares he's delivering on the " many Brexit benefits " This is because of the relentless tide of propaganda from the BBC in particular. I had a drink with an old friend last night who is more or less opposite to me politically. At one stage he was gloating about Farage losing his Coutts account and went on to say how terrible Brexit was. When I challenged him as to how he had been negatively affected he couldn't come up with anything. He's a reasonably intelligent person (my age but with a degree) so he's not a moron, just misguided. I agree, the morons were the ones who voted for brexit:- www.institute.global/insights/geopolitics-and-security/three-years-brexit-casts-long-shadow-over-uk-economy |
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 7:36:03 GMT
. In the campaign, the Tories were for Remain because they secretly needed us to Leave. Then after the result they were for Brexit because they secretly wanted to Remain. Then they oversaw actual leaving, because they're positioning themselves to be the party of rejoining. It's very frustrating that more people can't understand how obvious this all is. Then let me explain what you seem to have forgotten. Back in 2010 con were the natural party of opposition. They needed a cause. They had one thing going for them which was the US bank fraud selling worthless securities which created a world recession. What a thing to need to win an election! But they needed more than this so they adopted euroscepticism despite being the party which has always pushed more integration with europe. In 2015 they needed more, so they offered a referendum on brexit, confident their government partners the libs would veto it. Well Cameron was confident, maybe others like Gove thought brexit could happen. Con has always contained a vociferous minority against eu membership. Post the election, the party won and was committed to the referendum. People like johnson made a decision whether to support or oppose brexit based upon personal self interest. It has been amazingly successful for him personally. Con then chose May as a compromise leader in a rigged election to try to find a compromise brexit to satisfy both remain and leave conservative mps. She failed because there is no solution. The party delayed brexit 3 years but eventually had no choice but to do it or admit there was no good brexit and refuse to do it. Electorally that would have been a total disaster, so they chose johnson the crazy as their leader to implement brexit. The party was purged of remainers, who either were thrown out or like the local bexhill mp merriman swore they had abandoned their belief in membership. Which obviously wasnt true, no one changes such beliefs like that. Whether any of them really believe in brexit, they do believe in being the government and doing anything necessary to remain the government. Its obvious they lie repeatedly to voters, there have been countless examples in recent years of policy u turns where an mp extolls a policy one day but then the next expresses the exact opposite. What we can be sure of is when the majority of potential con voters supports rejoin, then so will the party. |
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 7:39:56 GMT
Report london mayor has said only 10% of car owners would be affected by ulez.
Gee...not everyone has a car, but then family members would be upset too.
10% sounds just about the vote share labour lost compared to the anti con vote in the other two elections.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 22, 2023 7:41:17 GMT
mobyCorbyn reached the peak of his contribution to Westminster as being without a doubt the best father Christmas at the annual Westminster children's party. He came with his own beard and outfit. He did have a propensity to offer yearly membership of the drain hole cover appreciation society in his secret Santa 🎅 gifts but no one's without fault.
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Post by Danny on Jul 22, 2023 7:43:47 GMT
We've just joined CPTPP without any referendum, so there is a recent precedent. Big difference. One is a trade deal, the other involves becoming part of a supra-national entity. you really dont get it. Cptpp is no different to the eu. Just smaller. |
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