Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 14:30:49 GMT
Not so much sympathy for 'senior doctors', on average of £120k with very nice pensions, as there was for nurses - noting that nurses have ended their strike.
?
PS Obviously a partisan bias if folks upon up the tabs. For 'senior doctors' then CON are 76% (net 57%) opposed where as LAB are 64% (net 36%) support. Pretty sure Starmer-Reeves have said "no money left" and IIRC have even kicked out LAB folks who have been on picket lines. Vote Starmer = get Tory.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 20, 2023 14:34:13 GMT
It’s currently the top half-dozen headlines over at one newspaper… zzz ZZZ If folks push the clickbait stories (either in 'outrage' or 'agreement') then the clickbait outlets will keep focusing on clickbait stories. If it's a boring non-story then best to simply ignore it IMO and then perhaps the clickbait outlets will focus on more interesting news. Despite my disinterest in the affair and how I haven’t been clicking on the links, or reading the articles, or even mentioned it up to now, strangely it seems to still be dominating the news the Trev. I think you might be overestimating my power of influence in these affairs a tad. (And of course on your own terms, you are indulging the clickbait in your response. You could just ignore my post…) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2023 14:34:50 GMT
@trevor
Senior Tory politicians took up time in pmqs regarding this bollocks.
And Sunakered and his deranged home Secretary have demanded an enquiry into it.
I suppose you could describe the Tory regime as a click bait outlet though.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 20, 2023 14:39:00 GMT
Trevor
Your table shows no link between salary and support.
A majority also oppose strikes by baggage handlers and highway workers, railway workers and border force employees all of whom earn around the national living wage
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 20, 2023 14:53:05 GMT
steveNone taken. Even if I don’t see how.
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Post by graham on Jul 20, 2023 15:09:13 GMT
Rafwan The 2017 manifesto brought credible hope of an ending to austerity. The crushing of Corbyn and anything vaguely lefty is now heralding its return. No offence but Corbyn did that to himself in 2019 It increasingly looks as if Starmer & Reeves are going to match the complicity of the LibDems in foisting Austerity on us. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 15:13:46 GMT
zzz ZZZ If folks push the clickbait stories (either in 'outrage' or 'agreement') then the clickbait outlets will keep focusing on clickbait stories. If it's a boring non-story then best to simply ignore it IMO and then perhaps the clickbait outlets will focus on more interesting news. Despite my disinterest in the affair and how I haven’t been clicking on the links, or reading the articles, or even mentioned it up to now, strangely it seems to still be dominating the news the Trev. I think you might be overestimating my power of influence in these affairs a tad. (And of course on your own terms, you are indulging the clickbait in your response. You could just ignore my post…) Quite right. I should have ignored you. However, since it has come up then YG did ask about it. Given the findings in the poll then Starmer will likely support another CON policy and maybe both parties add it as a 6th mission/priority given it's all people seem to be talking about  |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 15:17:17 GMT
Of hopefully more interest then this YG finding gets a large majority in agreement of what needs to be done:
Although the wording pedants might object to the 'generalisation' when it comes to housebuilding and the NIMBY issue (ie folks might want more social housing, just NIMBY).
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 15:25:35 GMT
and other news/polling that is IMO newsworthy. Once again a substantial majority (although caveat of the NIMBY issue) and Rishi needs to "get on with it" rather than continue the 'dither+delay' on something he pinky promised to have sorted.
Senior Tories back move to end onshore wind banwww.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66245330 |
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Post by norfolkandgood on Jul 20, 2023 15:33:30 GMT
Tory dirty tricks in the by-elections...shocked I tell you [/quo6te] The local newspaper party literature has been used by LD in North Norfolk for many years |
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Post by James E on Jul 20, 2023 15:35:18 GMT
Based on fairly limited polling evidence, here are my predictions for today's trio of by-elections:
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Lab 42% (+4)
Con 37% (-16)
swing 10%
Selby and Ainsty
Lab 42% (+18)
Con 36% (-24)
swing 21%
Somerton and Froom
LD 53% (+27)
Con 28% (-25)
swing Con to LD 26%
Anyone else want to have a guess?
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 20, 2023 15:43:34 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 16:08:02 GMT
@isa - for your enjoyment, I have posted the tale of Harold Gimblett's first class debut on the sport thread. Food for the fantasies of every club cricketer.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 20, 2023 16:22:18 GMT
As I have a history degree I am obliged to disagree with you! Actually, scarcely anything is new and most things have been tried before. It is lack of knowledge of the past that dooms us to keep making the same mistakes. In this particular case all I was referencing is that independent MPs who have split from the main parties don't tend to last long - that's just a fact rather than opinion. I could list all the examples but that would be boring. (See Change UK for a recent example). Hehe. OK, scratch the last bit. But history does not of itself have immutable laws, it cannot explain or teach anything. This can only be done with careful scrutiny and analysis. Unless you can explain why past splits didn't worked, you cannot be sure this will always be the case. The reason past splits didn't work in the long run is the ruthless logic of FPTP and the domination of the large parties, with their resources of money, activities and access to the media. I would point out that it is me who is trying to preserve a left wing voice in the Commons here and Graham who wants them to commit electoral suicide (btw they won't). If anyone seriously thinks there is a likelihood of a socialist left party outwith Labour winning significant numbers of Westminster seats under FPTP (remembering the Greens have managed one in 50 years) I suggest they set up such a party and stand for election and see how FPTP treats them. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 16:34:58 GMT
@isa - for your enjoyment, I have posted the tale of Harold Gimblett's first class debut on the sport thread. Food for the fantasies of every club cricketer. Thanks, pjw1961. Have replied on the sport thread. |
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Post by alec on Jul 20, 2023 16:38:47 GMT
Coutts; Just as well HRH Prince Phillip is no longer with us. Some of his views on race and politics were a bit, er, spicey. Would have been something if the royal family had their finances trashed by the bank.... Meanwhile, climate change, the UK response, and the role of hydrogen; any lingering doubts that the use of hydrogen for domestic heating was a wasteful side show largely created by the lobbying of vested interested is becoming harder and harder to hide from - www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/20/gas-boiler-lobby-uk-heat-pump-plans-leak |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 16:44:34 GMT
Based on fairly limited polling evidence, here are my predictions for today's trio of by-elections: Uxbridge & South Ruislip Lab 42% (+4) Con 37% (-16) swing 10% Selby and Ainsty Lab 42% (+18) Con 36% (-24) swing 21% Somerton and Froom LD 53% (+27) Con 28% (-25) swing Con to LD 26% Anyone else want to have a guess? The first two look quite feasible, James E, but your S&F prediction serms a bit racy to me. Drove through a small town in the constituency earlier and saw plenty of wrinklies near the polling station. I think LDEM will probably take it, but the margin might be less emphatic. We're going down to vote at 8 pm so will give some further thoughts later. |
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Post by Mark on Jul 20, 2023 17:01:56 GMT
If the Russians attack civilian shipping or even if a civilian ship is destroyed by a mine we should attack the Black Sea fleet. They're pushing now out of desperation to see how far they can go. They need to know that we are not scared of destroying their assets directly if need be. If not now it will become necessary later. I am utterly astounded at this. A position put forward by a fair few people, including some I would usually readily agree with. Currently, both Russia and Ukraine have said that they will regard any ship as military. This is a dangerous situation that urgently needs resolving, but, to seriously contemplate the west/US/NATO directly attacking Russian assets in the region is, IMO, utter madness. If that happens, the Russians will fire back. We will then be in direct conflict with Russia. It is highly probable that once this point is reached, one side, likely Russia will fire a tactical nuclear missile. The other side will fire at least one tactical nuclear missile in return. Then it's all bets off with the most likely scenario being global thermonuclear war. Whatever the moral rights and wrongs of the situation, is it really worth blowing up the world for? Please can someone, anyone, who is advocating this tell me how the course of events I have outlined above won't happen? |
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Post by James E on Jul 20, 2023 17:03:40 GMT
Based on fairly limited polling evidence, here are my predictions for today's trio of by-elections: Uxbridge & South Ruislip Lab 42% (+4) Con 37% (-16) swing 10% Selby and Ainsty Lab 42% (+18) Con 36% (-24) swing 21% Somerton and Froom LD 53% (+27) Con 28% (-25) swing Con to LD 26% Anyone else want to have a guess? The first two look quite feasible, James E , but your S&F prediction serms a bit racy to me. Drove through a small town in the constituency earlier and saw plenty of wrinklies near the polling station. I think LDEM will probably take it, but the margin might be less emphatic. We're going down to vote at 8 pm so will give some further thoughts later. For a bit of context to my S&F prediction - look at the Con to LibDem swings in the three LD by-election gains we've seen in the past few years: 17 June 2021 Chesham and Amersham : 25% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 44% in polls) 16 Dec 2021 North Shropshire : 34% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 33% in polls) 23 June 2022 Tiverton and Honiton: 30% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 32% in polls) The Tories' current polling average is 27%, while the LDs are at much the same VI as they were in these previous BEs. For the Conservatives' vote share in Somerton&Froom: UNS would have them down by 18 points to 35%. Proportional loss would have them on about 32 % (27/44.7 x 53%) By-election history suggest that their vote share may be halved to around 26%. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 20, 2023 17:11:00 GMT
Can't say I'm surprised, even those who want lower immigration don't like to see spiteful behaviour to children, especially from a Government minister
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 17:13:39 GMT
The first two look quite feasible, James E , but your S&F prediction serms a bit racy to me. Drove through a small town in the constituency earlier and saw plenty of wrinklies near the polling station. I think LDEM will probably take it, but the margin might be less emphatic. We're going down to vote at 8 pm so will give some further thoughts later. For a bit of context to my S&F prediction - look at the Con to Lib Dem swings in the three LD by-election gains we've seen in the past few years: 17 June 2021 Chesham and Amersham : 25% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 44% in polls) 16 Dec 2021 North Shropshire : 34% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 33% in polls) 23 June 2022 Tiverton and Honiton: 30% swing Con to LDs (when Con VI was averaging 32% in polls) The Tories' current polling average is 27%, while the LDs are at much the same VI as they were in these previous BEs. There you go again, James E, using sound, psephological evidence to back up your predictions!  If you're right about S&F, those figures will make quite ugly reading for CON. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 20, 2023 17:14:02 GMT
This person is still on GB News and writing articles for the Daily Mail
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Post by Mark on Jul 20, 2023 17:25:04 GMT
Anyone know what time the results of each of the three by-elections is likely tonight?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 20, 2023 17:26:43 GMT
Then, he was readily and instantly offered a bank account with sister company, NatWest. I did see Farage deny he was offered an alternative account until the fuss blew up? |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 20, 2023 17:30:00 GMT
Anyone know what time the results of each of the three by-elections is likely tonight? With an expected low turn out I would have thought around 2am? |
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Post by alec on Jul 20, 2023 17:32:20 GMT
domjg - from wiki, on the Total Exclusion Zone placed around the Falklands Islands, in 1982: "The Total Exclusion Zone (TEZ) was an area declared by the United Kingdom on 30 April 1982 covering a circle of radius 200 nautical miles (370 km; 230 mi) from the centre of the Falkland Islands.[1] During the Falklands War any sea vessel or aircraft from any country entering the zone may have been fired upon without further warning." The Russians have given warning, this is a war, and whatever the rights or wrongs of each sides positions, what Putin is doing is 'normal' for war.
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 17:33:32 GMT
Based on fairly limited polling evidence, here are my predictions for today's trio of by-elections: Uxbridge & South Ruislip Lab 42% (+4) Con 37% (-16) swing 10% Selby and Ainsty Lab 42% (+18) Con 36% (-24) swing 21% Somerton and Froom LD 53% (+27) Con 28% (-25) swing Con to LD 26% Anyone else want to have a guess? Very close to Stats for Lefties and I think you'll get the pin very close to the donkey's arse. U&SR likely to be lower swing due to the ULEZ issue and Count Binface/others picking up some of the ABCON protest vote. LD usually do very well in by-elections so I expect they'll get the largest swing (but that seat is probably the most likely of the 3 to go back to CON in GE'24 - again as per the norm for LD by-election wins). Thank you for sticking your neck out with a prediction |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 20, 2023 17:35:12 GMT
It is highly probable that once this point is reached, one side, likely Russia will fire a tactical nuclear missile. I really dont think they will. Even the Russian people arent that gullible. And thats why they wont. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 20, 2023 17:37:50 GMT
Stats for Lefties have the crayons out with some amusing tweets. Starmer sock puppets look away now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 17:39:30 GMT
Anyone know what time the results of each of the three by-elections is likely tonight? With an expected low turn out I would have thought around 2am? I would expect Uxbridge first, because it covers a much smaller geographical area. The other two seats are much more rural. Somerton and Frome certainly is. I don't know where the count is being held, but it's a good 25 miles from end to end of the constituency. A long way to move ballot boxes before they start counting. |
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