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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 18, 2023 18:29:56 GMT
Based, in my view, far too much on mistaking electoral positioning for an inviolable prescription for governing. Most people would accept that Labour can't do everything, but I think it goes beyond electoral positioning and not scaring Tory horses when Labour positions themselves as "there's no money left" and there's nothing we can do until we grow the economy. That's a Thatcherite positioning of there is no alternative. It's not even Blair's third way. While you could argue that Blair was justified in largely keeping to Tory tax plans in 1997, because that was where the country was at the time, there seems little justification for it now. 5% on top earners has been dropped, CGT equalised with Income Tax has been dropped. Other taxation plans, including on Corporation Tax, have been dropped. So what Labour has bought into is that you cannot grow an economy by raising taxes and it can only be done by "growth" but without any agenda to achieve a growth that, on a planet with finite resources, has eluded most of the western world for the last 15 years. You can grow an economy with tax rises that are used for investment but Labour appears to have blocked this off in their positioning so are reliant on any post Covid and Ukraine bounce back. I think the 2008 crash, Covid and Ukraine were significant economic events that could be seen as unusual, but they are also a symptom that world economies are so unstable they are no longer able to recover quickly from these type of events and this is largely down to the super rich hoarding too much of the wealth and Westerm worlds unable to be competitive with cheaper labour in the Far East and elsewhere. With the climate emergency now in full swing tweaking a Thatcherite solution which has been proved to have failed is not going to fix things one little bit. You say anything is better than the Tories, I would say lets get the meaningful alternatives up and running now rather than wasting 5 years with a softer version of the same. Some well positioned 2nd places for the Greens starting to appear and offering an alternative would, in my humble opinion, be more worthwhile than shifting chairs on the Titanic. In some ways I'm arguing against something I've known to be true all my life that there are only two alternatives to government- Tory or Labour, but when I look at how the western world and the country is now, it feels like last days of the Roman empire that needs a radical reset. Ironically Greens getting 7% vote share and a couple of seats is unlikely to prevent a Labour government as opinion polling stands at present. LD took advantage of this in 1997. Anyway I don't expect Green to make much progress next year and could even lose Brighton, so it seems odds on now that we will both be finding out what a Starmer government looks like and maybe 5 years later we'll be of a similar mind- obviously it will be you saying "you were right all along Shevii and I apologise profusely to all the mean things I said to you" :-) , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 18, 2023 18:39:28 GMT
Leon Trotsky vs Hugh Gaitskell. Who might have made the better PM? For all the talk of factionalism in the Labour Party at least they don't settle disputes with an ice pick. I have heard the possibility boasted of on numerous occasions … |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 18, 2023 18:51:09 GMT
Some press on an issue I've mentioned before. ONS only update their basket of goods once per year but clearly people change their 'behaviour' more frequently than once per year. Hence "The market researcher said UK consumers would have spent £683 ($893) more on their annual grocery bill to buy the same items as they did a year previously, but consumers have adapted their habits to limit this increase.
The average annual increase in household spending over the past 12 months actually stands at £330"
UK grocery inflation continues to slow after March spikewww.just-food.com/news/uk-grocery-inflation-continues-to-slow-after-march-spike/Obviously depends on what happens between now and next ONS 'basket of goods' update but if ONS update their basket goods to reflect the current 'average' household then that will be a big 'base effect' drop in food inflation (and inflation generally) when they make the change. I appreciate some people don't understand 'base effects' or human behaviour and hence lack the Bruce Foresight ability understand that what "goes around, comes around" (ie keep banging on about inflation, Rishi missing that target, etc now as by GE'24 things will be looking quite different to last month's data).  "Official data for overall UK inflation in June will be published tomorrow (19 July)"Having been burned a little bit the last two months then TBC but a higher than expected previous month obviously sets a higher base for future changes... |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 18, 2023 18:52:13 GMT
For all the talk of factionalism in the Labour Party at least they don't settle disputes with an ice pick. I have heard the possibility boasted of on numerous occasions … Funnily enough, the biggest fight I have seen in Braintree CLP was over the key question of charging for green bin collection. Some rather uncomradely language got used. On Stamerism v Corbynism, not a peep!  |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 18, 2023 18:56:46 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. I know what you mean and yet Starmer is short-sightedly 15% ahead in the polls, has had double-figure leads for a year now and if reports are to be believed, is about to win in Selby and Ainsty, which should be close to impossible, so maybe he knows something we don't? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 18, 2023 19:15:36 GMT
For all the talk of factionalism in the Labour Party at least they don't settle disputes with an ice pick. I have heard the possibility boasted of on numerous occasions … Jacqui Smith once threatened to sink one into the ample backside of her then husband when his Television X TV subscription fees came to light on one of her expense claims. That's the nearest we ever came to physical violence in the Redditch CLP. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 18, 2023 19:20:07 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. I know what you mean and yet Starmer is short-sightedly 15% ahead in the polls, has had double-figure leads for a year now and if reports are to be believed, is about to win in Selby and Ainsty, which should be close to impossible, so maybe he knows something we don't? And yet all he had to do was renage on everything he ever purported to believe in and position himself as a liberal, competent Tory. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 18, 2023 19:21:00 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. I know what you mean and yet Starmer is short-sightedly 15% ahead in the polls, has had double-figure leads for a year now and if reports are to be believed, is about to win in Selby and Ainsty, which should be close to impossible, so maybe he knows something we don't? I'm reminded of Rafael Behr's question, that he then answered himself. Q)If Keir Starmer's strategy was working, what would our politics look like? A) Very much like they look today. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 18, 2023 19:56:38 GMT
It's interesting to see the muted comments on here regarding Starmer's decision to retain the Tory 2 child benefits policy.
One of the arguments used by unionists and British nationalists on here and elsewhere is that they care as much about child poverty in England as in Scotland and that it is somehow selfish for anybody in Scotland to favour independence and different policies for Scotland.
Well, Starmer's decision puts a hole in that particular argument. The Scottish Labour leadership in the form of Sarwar has fully backed the decision. Monica Lennon has posted her opposition:
However, it clearly is UK Labour policy and she fails to recognise that her support for the continuation of the British state and Westminster supremacy means that Scotland will get what voters in England will support.
Anyway, we leave the UK tomorrow to take up residency in the EU and at the moment I hope never to have to return.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 18, 2023 20:07:23 GMT
BBc report suggested persistent absences have a lot to do with parents who simply dont think the school is poviding for their child's special needs. I wondered if that might be very variable between schools. Any thoughts? Does your partner's school have the average level of absences? I am not sure about the level of absence - I don’t think it’s that big a problem, I will have to check. That said, trying to be inclusive and taking care of different needs is a big deal for her, and I agree with your earlier post about how some parents may have given up with schools. I think catmanjeff once said they decided to homeschool for that reason? Speaking personally, looking back I would happily have left school at 14, there was little point my being there. I had a bit of feedback from another school, where a teacher suggested abou 1/5 of pupils will be missing classes because although they are on site, they are just hiding somewhere instead of attending the lessons they should. These people would be recorded officially as present, they just dont go to the lessons. To the great relief of the teachers. I am increasingly of the view that national figures are an average, and the average is hiding some big extremes. Someone else pointed out that job adverts are becoming wilder and wilder, with very generous relocation packages if you are willing to move to teach at some of the most awful schools. Phrases such as 'challenging opportunity". Some state schools are therefore paying premium wages, and teachers are making career choices to go high wage high stress or lower wage and a more peaceful lifestyle. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 20:08:12 GMT
When I was a little boy in Malta and Gibraltar we played on beaches a lot. In those days it was a well-known, biological fact that wimmin (and gurls) couldn’t kick, throw, catch - or in some cases even pick up - a ball. Looking further back, Boudicca, for all her fame and reputation, apparently found it difficult to throw a small spear far enough for it to make it out of her chariot.
Yet now, just a few years later, wimmin are throwing quite a heavy ball TWENTY TWO YARDS (!!!!!) in the approximate direction of three wooden wickets whilst another woman tries to hit it with “a bat”.
We have even beaten Australia at this now. Isn’t progress amazing?
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 18, 2023 20:21:31 GMT
Ahead of tomorrow's inflation data then the 'expectations' for June (change from May) Headline 8.2% (-0.5%) Core: 7.1% (uc) Food*: 17.7% (-0.6%)
Fears grow over more interest rate rises ahead of inflation datawww.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/fears-grow-over-more-interest-rate-rises-ahead-of-inflation-data-b1095157.html#:Sonia has rallied quite a bit in the last week, possibly squeezing out some shorts. It's prone to over-react but some of the comments about rates 'peaking' at 7% no longer reflect market prices - which might well change quite dramatically tomorrow - hopefully pricing out more of the previously priced hikes but TBC of course. Having hiked by 50bpts last time then BoE are going to look stupid to stop in Aug but 25bpts v 50bpts is still 'all to play for' and of course the BoE still refuse to accept that hiking rates is itself inflationary and leading to the 'wage-price' spiral (that Larry Elliot mentions in his latest**) * Lots of different food indices with/without stuff like non-alcoholic beverages. The one with non-alcoholic beverages was 18.4% in May and 'expected' to drop 0.6% as well. My guess is it will drop by more, as will the others but TBC of course. (oh and yes, it will still be above EZ/EU inflation for a bit longer but a pretty big base effect is dropping out next month) ** I tend to agree with his 2yr prediction but that will be too late for Rishi-CON. Could come earlier but either way Starmer (assuming he wins) will likely inherit a decent economy in 2024 - nowhere near as good as Blair in 1997 and in need of some pretty urgent changes IMO but I don't see Reeves wanting to play Bazball with the economy just applying Red sticking plasters over the Blue ones.
Economic ‘Bazball’ will have replaced UK’s safety-first approach to inflation and growth by 2025www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/16/economic-bazball-uk-safety-first-approach-inflation-growth-rishi-sunak-bank-of-england |
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Post by shevii on Jul 18, 2023 20:23:47 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. Not that I'm canvassing for the Green Party or anything because that would be pointless on a forum of political aware people who know their own minds, but unless you're in one of the 20% of seats that would decide a General election, and probably 10% when it comes down to reading the opinion polls even half way correctly on UNS, then it doesn't much matter who you vote for. If you are in the 80% then you can send some sort of message with a free conscience. Mind you I might be being inconsistent here because I voted Labour in 2010 and 2015 even though Greens were probably nearer my politics and I was in a seat that has been Labour since 1918 and isn't going to change any time soon. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 18, 2023 20:24:36 GMT
However, it clearly is UK Labour policy and she fails to recognise that her support for the continuation of the British state and Westminster supremacy means that Scotland will get what voters in England will support. Anyway, we leave the UK tomorrow to take up residency in the EU and at the moment I hope never to have to return. Good luck with your new life- hope you still pop in here from time to time. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 20:25:58 GMT
Mitterrand v Joan of Arc is a real poser. And Hollande v Hercules Poirot too. I'm concerned that one of those is fictional - I'm referring to the idea that Hollande was ever really French President of course. My little grey cells seem to recall that one of those is also Belgian. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 20:40:53 GMT
People might well say ' Labour cannot do everything', but the real question now is 'Will Labour do anything ?'- other than carry out Tory policies which they have vigorously opposed in the past.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 18, 2023 20:42:13 GMT
It's interesting to see the muted comments on here regarding Starmer's decision to retain the Tory 2 child benefits policy. The Scottish Labour leadership in the form of Sarwar has fully backed the decision. Do you have a source for that statement? "Fully backed" implies Sarwar is taking exactly the same line as Starmer. All the reporting I have seen, English or Scottish, with the sole exception of specifically SNP supporting outlets, suggests something more nuanced. Typical example here: www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/anas-sarwar-says-press-labour-30485530 |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 20:48:03 GMT
Assuming he does stand as an Independent, I really do hope that the Campaign group endorses Corbyn and work hard to secure his re-election.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 18, 2023 20:56:03 GMT
I'm concerned that one of those is fictional - I'm referring to the idea that Hollande was ever really French President of course. My little grey cells seem to recall that one of those is also Belgian. You are right if course, but I wasn't restricting my historical comparisons to same era or same nationality. I wasn't overly concerned whether they were fictional or not either In fact, at one time I was going to ask us all to consider the respective merits of Ian Duncan Smith and Captain Pugwash and who we might have preferred as our national leader, but that ship probably sailed some years ago now. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 18, 2023 20:59:07 GMT
Assuming he does stand as an Independent, I really do hope that the Campaign group endorses Corbyn and work hard to secure his re-election. They won't because they would all be expelled from the Labour Party for endorsing someone standing against an official Labour candidate (something you approved of yesterday in respect of Alistair Campbell). Your suggestion would lead to the extinction of the far left in the PLP. Starmer would be delighted but John McDonnell is not that stupid. |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 18, 2023 21:11:08 GMT
Has anyone spotted oldnat posting recently? I miss the old curmudgeon when they are absent, hope all is well with them. Anent the two child cap, this decision has really dismayed me, it is a horrible reminder of the failure to vote against the early Tory cuts in benefits for disabled people. There really are some things which Labour should and must reverse. The weakest and most vulnerable members of society should not be left to rot in poverty. It is an untenable position for Starmer to take and I think it will reverse the Labour advance in Scotland. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 18, 2023 21:19:27 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. Not that I'm canvassing for the Green Party or anything because that would be pointless on a forum of political aware people who know their own minds, but unless you're in one of the 20% of seats that would decide a General election, and probably 10% when it comes down to reading the opinion polls even half way correctly on UNS, then it doesn't much matter who you vote for. If you are in the 80% then you can send some sort of message with a free conscience. Mind you I might be being inconsistent here because I voted Labour in 2010 and 2015 even though Greens were probably nearer my politics and I was in a seat that has been Labour since 1918 and isn't going to change any time soon. The real shame implied in what you say, and I'm not being at all disingenuous when I say this, is that we haven't got a voting system that allows people like you to vote where their heart and political views truly reside. It is both ludicrous and sad that you have wasted a vote, cast half-heartedly too, in both the 2010 and 2015 general elections. You were denied two things that are absolutely vital in a functioning democracy. A vote that counted and a vote that truly reflected your political views. Millions of others were similarly robbed. And still are. Can there be a more damning indictment of our current voting system than that? I think not and it is why electoral reform has become my personal political cause celebre. I'm hanging on in there with Labour on this, purely because there is growing support for it within the party and, under FPTP, only Labour have a realistic chance of making it happen. I accept there is an article of faith attached on both counts here. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 21:25:46 GMT
It's interesting to see the muted comments on here regarding Starmer's decision to retain the Tory 2 child benefits policy. …. Anyway, we leave the UK tomorrow to take up residency in the EU and at the moment I hope never to have to return. Just saw this in the Guardian, to add a little potential irony to the affair: “ However, he faced further pressure from senior Labour figures to mitigate the decision. Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, said he should promise that “when there is the headroom to do something, this clearly should be at the front of the queue”.
The senior Labour MP Stella Creasy argued that scrapping the cap could in fact save money as it was “potentially costing more than it is saving” as greater hardship prevented people from finding work.”www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/18/keir-starmer-defends-decision-not-to-scrap-two-child-benefit-capAnyways all the best for life in the EU! |
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Post by jib on Jul 18, 2023 21:28:35 GMT
Hi shevii , I am now very much in the begrudgingly voting Labour camp. I'm sure when I do one of those 'which party's polices reflect your views/which party you should vote for tests' at the time of the next GE, mine will come up with Green/SNP. Starmer is being very short-sighted if you ask me - discarding core voters for soft Tory ones. Not that I'm canvassing for the Green Party or anything because that would be pointless on a forum of political aware people who know their own minds, but unless you're in one of the 20% of seats that would decide a General election, and probably 10% when it comes down to reading the opinion polls even half way correctly on UNS, then it doesn't much matter who you vote for. If you are in the 80% then you can send some sort of message with a free conscience. Mind you I might be being inconsistent here because I voted Labour in 2010 and 2015 even though Greens were probably nearer my politics and I was in a seat that has been Labour since 1918 and isn't going to change any time soon. I find myself in the "new" swing seat of Bangor Aberconwy. I certainly shall not be voting Tory and Labour have a 86% chance of winning link |
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Post by alec on Jul 18, 2023 21:31:14 GMT
hireton - sorry to see you leave these shores. I'm planning to leave England soon, but not the UK. mandolinist - second your query re oldnat. I've also wondered whether @peter Cairns has passed by of late? Starmer and the 2 child benefits cap; sadly I'm less sure this will prove markedly unpopular. That doesn't mean it's the right decision, but I think people do need to reflect on what Labour are going to inherit. We've got a debt to gdp ratio of 100%, a massive backlog of infrastructure spending, with schools and hospitals literally on the brink of physical collapse, we have record NHS waiting lists, recruitment crises in pretty much every branch of government, record numbers of sick workers, a terribly botched Brexit that has sucked tens of billions of tax revenue from the coffers, and numerous structural economic problems that have got far worse since 2010. The Conservatives have created an almighty mess, and it's going to be very difficult to fix this any time soon. There are going to be multiple 'small' issues like this, that really are small in the scheme of things, but make big impacts on some peoples lives, but Labour is going to have to work on a far bigger scale first if it is going to be able to help anyone, at any scale. It's brutal, but that's the state of he nation. I think we're in for a rough ride, and there are going to be plenty more unpleasant decisions to come.
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Post by shevii on Jul 18, 2023 21:35:21 GMT
The real shame implied in what you say, and I'm not being at all disingenuous when I say this, is that we haven't got a voting system that allows people like you to vote where their heart and political views truly reside. It is both ludicrous and sad that you have wasted a vote, cast half-heartedly too, in both the 2010 and 2015 general elections. You were denied two things that are absolutely vital in a functioning democracy. A vote that counted and a vote that truly reflected your political views. Millions of others were similarly robbed. And still are. Can there be a more damning indictment of our current voting system than that? I think not and it is why electoral reform has become my personal political cause celebre. I'm hanging on in there with Labour on this, purely because there is growing support for it within the party and, under FPTP, only Labour have a realistic chance of making it happen. I accept there is an article of faith attached on both counts here. To be fair I was happy enough to vote Labour in both of those elections- I wasn't holding my nose as I did it. My point was that I could have voted Green because Labour would have won in my constituency anyway but I chose not to for some combination of reasons- probably carried along with the national situation in a mostly two party system. But I agree with you- I also think that nearly all of us would genuinely become floating voters under those circumstances, assuming it wasn't just the 2 main parties and the 3 or 4 secondary parties we have currently. There'd obviously still be party loyalists but not perhaps a significant number unless they were members. I think there would also be more honesty and debate in the political campaigns as well- yes parties would still be trying to appeal to as wide a range of voters as possible but they would have more of a definite positioning and not having to triangulate all the time and people guessing what they really think- where that positioning ends up after an election would be part of the negotiations in a coalition government which voters would judge the ones they voted for- just like they did LD in 2015. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 21:49:14 GMT
My little grey cells seem to recall that one of those is also Belgian. You are right if course, but I wasn't restricting my historical comparisons to same era or same nationality. I wasn't overly concerned whether they were fictional or not either In fact, at one time I was going to ask us all to consider the respective merits of Ian Duncan Smith and Captain Pugwash and who we might have preferred as our national leader, but that ship probably sailed some years ago now. The Black Pig, I'm guessing. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 18, 2023 22:00:00 GMT
shevii
Totally agree. Both our two major political parties are forced by our electoral system to try and cobble together essentially untenable coalitions of voters.
In so doing, they also unwittingly create intrinsically implausible political entities, containing as they almost have to do, political views so divergent that they rarely sit comfortably together under one umbrella.
Rather sadly for the diversity and interest value of this forum, we don't get these internal tensions and contradictions crawled over as forensically as we do for Labour, but they exist every bit as much in the Tory Party.
Not as much was/is made of it as it should be, predictably maybe, but the expulsion of the more moderate and pro-European Tory MPs by Johnson in 2019, and the party's gradual absorption of UKIP post 2016, may well prove to be one of the most significant developments in British politics in the last 40 years.
A sort of below the radar party split, hidden for now by FPTP, but that may resonate for decades to come. Electoral reform would seal the deal of course.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 22:32:00 GMT
In my latest, and probably final, update from the coalface that is the Somerton and Frome by-election, I today undertook a 20 mile cycling tour of a good chunk of the constituency.
I must firstly point out that this was certainly not a conscious effort on my part to undertake some rather parochial, anecdotal polling research. It was rather driven by the necessity to return a borrowed bicycle to the garage where Isa was undergoing her MOT, which to my amazement and delight, she passed!
Anyhoo, I finally discovered the love that dare not speak its name in the constituency, namely CON supporters as evidenced by election posters in their gardens. In fact, I saw three, although two were well off the beaten track, (I had planned my route to be as flat as possible, rather than more direct and with fiercer gradients, for obvious reasons!).
There seemed to be a few more LDEM posters around, but no others at all. I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout is rather disappointing on Thursday. The contest does not appear to have fired public imagination.
My UKPR2 duties completed, I returned home via a delightful and exhilarating jaunt in Isa through glorious Somerset summer scenery.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 22:34:26 GMT
Assuming he does stand as an Independent, I really do hope that the Campaign group endorses Corbyn and work hard to secure his re-election. They won't because they would all be expelled from the Labour Party for endorsing someone standing against an official Labour candidate (something you approved of yesterday in respect of Alistair Campbell). Your suggestion would lead to the extinction of the far left in the PLP. Starmer would be delighted but John McDonnell is not that stupid. But if their endorsement was delayed until close of nominations - a month before Polling Day - Starmer would be trapped. It would be too late to deselect those candidates or to choose new replacements. What could Starmer do about it under such circomstances? It would also create an almighty row - and potential split right at the outset of the official election campaign. Effectively the Campaign group could have him over a barrel. |
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