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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 18, 2023 12:44:04 GMT
You gov Britons would vote to rejoin the EU by 51% to 32%, the highest figure for 'rejoin' since the referendum 18% of Leave voters would now vote to re-enter the EU 57% of Britons (including 19% of Leave voters) say that Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU, also the highest figure to date 70% of Britons say the government is handling Brexit badly, including 58% of Leave voters I would like to see YouGov poll a representative sample of EU residents (excluding expat Brits) about whether they want to see us back in. I suspect that in many parts of Europe we are not well-regarded. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 12:51:34 GMT
Macmillan didn't inherit the title of Earl of Stockton, it was created for him by Thatcher, as I suspect you know. The key thing about Macmillan is he represented Stockton-on-Tess 1931-45 at a time of severe economic depression and had first hand experience of the effects of unemployment and poverty on working people. Therefore he accepted the Labour post-war settlement and even built on it in some respects (especially in house building). That's the reason why he enjoys a degree of respect from those on the left. I would still have preferred Labour to have been in power instead of him. I remember him from childhood. So have had to do some reading on the politics of the time , which was not top of my interests then. This is an interesting review of Stop Go Economics and the "Golden Age":- www.studysmarter.co.uk/explanations/history/modern-britain/stop-go-economics/Mac's "never had it so good" speech came with a dire warning -about inflation and wage awards. Reading through his 1957 Conference speech the passages on the Iron Curtain, Russia and NATO are weirdly relevant today. He didnt have much time for Labour though-not much consensus here ! :- "In 1951 we took over this country in a state of extreme - almost desperate - crisis. The Socialist Government was so frightened of the situation that they did not even try to deal with it." "It is easy to forget how we had to take a bit of margarine with us when we went to tea with a friend, how eagerly we queued for what I think was called a bit of off-ration offal, or that strange part of bureaucratic thinking - bananas on green books only. People in those days could not buy nylons except under the counter or from the spivs; we had to dash round looking for candles every time there was a power cut. And even after six years of enlightened Socialism - six years of this Utopia - the Minister of Fuel and Power proudly made this statement. He said: ‘Electric fires are a major cause of power cuts. We have imposed a purchase tax on them, and the Area Boards no longer display them in showrooms. I am told that in many parts of the country it is becoming really difficult to buy an electric fire.’ What a boast! What a triumph of planning! That was in October 1951. It was in that same month that the Socialist Prime Minister said: ‘If rationing is good for the people in wartime, surely it must be good for them in peacetime.’ All these things are part and parcel of Socialism. But - and I must be serious - these things are not just a glimpse of the past. They are an awful warning for the future." "There has been a great ideological dispute as to precisely which form of nationalisation was to be preferred, the old or the new. I think the supporters of the new felt that the word nationalisation was not very popular. They came to Brighton not to praise it but to bury it. But really it has all amounted, as far as I can see, to a distinction without a difference. They are using the oldest trick in the world - if the goods do not sell - try them with another label. I read in a Socialist magazine the following account of this dispute: ‘The real choice’ it says, ‘is whether the Government is to use public ownership to take a cut in the swag or to use public enterprise to cut the swag itself.’ This is an elegant way of describing these two proposals which have caused such a furore in the Labour Party. All the same, it seems that a compromise was reached, and it was decided to use both methods. There is to be a short list who are to have their throats cut, and a longer list who are to be bled slowly to death."  There were suggestions in the 1930s that Macmillan might defect to Labour. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 18, 2023 12:52:28 GMT
colin You may not have needed to worry about Afghanistan as much as you did! Wasn't Tobias Ellwood one the "good Tories"? To be fair I wouldn't want to mock this entirely because there are all sorts of compromises we have to make with less than ideal regimes but this reads way too much like state sponsored propaganda and he even uses the word "progressive": Afghanistan is OK if you are a Pashtun male. If you are female or a non-Pashtun (particularly if you are not an adherent to Sunni Islam) then it's not so good. But I doubt Ellwood was allowed to meet any of them. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 18, 2023 13:07:14 GMT
A good article by Martin Fletcher in New Statesman: www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/07/labour-radical-keir-starmer-reformHow Labour can be radical for free Starmer should embrace comprehensive reform of the voting system, the House of Lords and party funding. So here is what, in my naivety, I would like Labour to offer instead: comprehensive and far-reaching reform of a political system that has been broken by 13 years of Conservative misgovernment; by all the lying, the ethical outrages, the breaching of laws and conventions, the systematic dismantling of checks and balances, the bypassing of parliament, the assaults on independent bodies such as the judiciary, the BBC and the civil service, the rewarding of cronies with jobs and baubles, the criminalisation of protest and the erosion of voting rights – much of this by unelected prime ministers or prime ministers elected with a minority of the popular vote.He is quite right that there are many things that a Labour majority government could do - I would add a closer relationship with the EU to the list - that will not cost a significant amount of money. A couple of years of this would do much to recover the voters' faith in politicians and lay the groundwork for the more progressive tax system needed to support the spending on social and health services that (almost) everyone wants. I particularly like the idea that a new Prime Minister should be required to face the electorate at a General Election, effectively removing the power of party members to select the Prime Minister. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 13:07:34 GMT
I would like to see YouGov poll a representative sample of EU residents (excluding expat Brits) about whether they want to see us back in. I suspect that in many parts of Europe we are not well-regarded. And we signed the deal to join CPTPP a couple days ago, which puts a considerable fly into the ointment: UK signs treaty to join vast Indo-Pacific trade group as new data shows major economic benefitsBusiness and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has formally signed the treaty to accede to the CPTPP trade group in New Zealand this morning www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-signs-treaty-to-join-vast-indo-pacific-trade-group-as-new-data-shows-major-economic-benefits |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 13:32:49 GMT
leftieliberal. I suspect that in many parts of Europe we are not well-regarded. ----- That would be true of the regime that took us out they are about as popular in Europe as they are here!
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Post by alec on Jul 18, 2023 13:40:56 GMT
steve and colin "Nearly 14 million people use cross channel ferries yearly. The number using small boat crossings is around 20,000 Stop talking bollocks." Given the delays forecast for holidaymakers at channel ports next week, I think we're heading towards a much better business model for the people smugglers. I can foresee a ready market of ~14m customers willing to fill the small boats for the return journey. Brexit bonus!
Edit: Just to keep the small minority of Brexitanians happy, for them, we could market this as 'The Dunkirk Experience'. They're probably too dim to twig they're going the wrong way. Just give 'em a flag to wave and a lottery ticket to win an account at Coutts and they'll be happy.
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 13:41:14 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Actually no it doesn't The 0.08% possible improvement in GDP from CPTPP membership over a decade is just the fifty times less than leaving the European union has already cost. The CPTPP isn't remotely as complex an arrangement as the 40 years+ of European union/EEC membership in order to leave the UK simply has to give six months written notice, our reciprocal trade arrangements with 9 out of 11 members aren't impacted , those arranged by the European union are more beneficial in most cases any way. There would be no requirement to leave the CPTPP until the point at which we rejoined the European union Even if there was a will from either of our largest political parties the most optimistic time threshold for Rejoining would be around 3-5 years from commencement of negotiations. By which time the CPTPP will have proven to be totally irrelevant just as irrelevant as the gaslighting propaganda from the regime bigging up the benefits.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 13:55:36 GMT
Either a step change in productivity via new technology -or increased tax % x GDP are required. Blimey, I wouldn't have had you down as a Bennite colin I agreed with him about Nuclear Power ( though as he moved from nutty to completely nuts he changed his mind). I think his idea that putting the government in charge of companies is a recipe for success regardless of fundamental market conditions was daft : eprints.soton.ac.uk/419947/Ditto his workers co-operatives :- newint.org/features/1981/12/01/giantsJust reading up a bit on him though I found an area of some common ground. Wiki says of his travel to the Left :- "By the end of the 1970s, Benn's views had shifted to the left-wing of the Labour Party. He attributed this political shift to his experience as a Cabinet Minister in the 1964–1970 Labour Government. Benn ascribed his move to the left to four lessons: 1-How "the Civil Service can frustrate the policies and decisions of popularly elected governments" 2-The centralised nature of the Labour Party which allowed the Leader to run "the Party almost as if it were his personal kingdom" 3-"The power of industrialists and bankers to get their way by use of the crudest form of economic pressure, even blackmail, against a Labour Government" 4-The power of the media, which "like the power of the medieval Church, ensures that events of the day are always presented from the point of the view of those who enjoy economic privilege" Googling for some background to reason number 1 above I found this :- blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-lessons-of-tony-benn-as-a-cabinet-minister-breaking-the-rules-and-paying-the-price/Benn vs the Blob -50 years before Gove Respect ! |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 13:57:14 GMT
colin Nearly 14 million people use cross channel ferries yearly. The number using small boat crossings is around 20,000 Stop talking bollocks. Wonder why the EU doesn't just do this then rather than spending billions with North African autocrats to stop them coming ? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 13:57:45 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Actually no it doesn't The 0.08% possible improvement in GDP from CPTPP membership over a decade is just the fifty times less than leaving the European union has already cost. The CPTPP isn't remotely as complex an arrangement as the 40 years+ of European union/EEC membership in order to leave the UK simply has to give six months written notice, our reciprocal trade arrangements with 9 out of 11 members aren't impacted , those arranged by the European union are more beneficial in most cases any way. There would be no requirement to leave the CPTPP until the point at which we rejoined the European union Even if there was a will from either of our largest political parties the most optimistic time threshold for Rejoining would be around 3-5 years from commencement of negotiations. By which time the CPTPP will have proven to be totally irrelevant just as irrelevant as the gaslighting propaganda from the regime bigging up the benefits. It isn’t as complex an arrangement, but that is leaving out a few things: - the longer we stay in, the more likely it is that businesses will have reoriented to doing business in that zone, and moving away from it again to rejoin the EU will involve the kind of damage to business in the way that leaving the EU did - IIRC that figure didn’t include likely growth/new entrants or summat? Something like that anyway * - There’s a chance the US may join in which case there’s a considerable boost - the EU may establish a relationship with CPTPP which may reduce the attraction in leaving to join the EU - so we have left the EU, then we are going to leave ANOTHER block… are the EU going to trust us? And are voters going to be keen to leave yet another trade zone to rejoin another? - (a thought occurs: what if we manage to negotiate a separate deal with the US. Would we have to leave that as well to rejoin EU?) * EDIT - only a quick search but here is something I found online concerning the 0.08% estimate: “ The OBR comment on CPTPP – “we are aware of the UK government’s published estimate of the potential impact on UK GDP” sounds like a sneering reference to the claim, highlighted by the BBC, that it would only boost growth by 0.08 per cent. That figure was indeed taken from an official analysis. But that estimate (from a couple of years ago) was for “static modelling” to increase growth by £3.3 billion. The report added that “this increase is not an economic forecast… UK exports have the potential to grow by 65% by 2030, not included in the static estimates…For example, as CPTPP expands to include Thailand and South Korea, the impact on UK GDP rises from +1.8bn to +£5.5bn.” So the 0.08 per cent figure is a complete misrepresentation.
As Greg Hands wrote on this site, CPTPP has: “Half a billion consumers. A combined GDP of £9 trillion. A naturally pro-free trade club.” To ignore the benefit to our economy of joining it, or to suggest the benefit will be negligible, is quite absurd. But that is the way to fit the OBR narrative.” |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 14:06:11 GMT
Re-Sunak & university courses. The government could end tuition fees tomorrow if it wanted so that students wouldn't be saddled with (as much) debt. " Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most
Chris Belfield Jack Britton Laura van der Erve Published on 11 May 2017 Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most" IFS 2017 ...probably around £11bn to £12bn pa now |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 14:11:13 GMT
colinRe your quote, so Conservative Home think it will be worth a lot more and those criticising it are just sneering at it Can't say their take on it came as much of a surprise
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 14:13:32 GMT
colin Re your quote, so Conservative Home think it will be worth a lot more and those criticising it are just sneering at it Can't say their take on it came as much of a surprise You you might have meant my quote, but they are citing the official analysis, which pointed out itself the limitations of the analysis. “ The report added that “this increase is not an economic forecast… UK exports have the potential to grow by 65% by 2030, not included in the static estimates…For example, as CPTPP expands to include Thailand and South Korea, the impact on UK GDP rises from +1.8bn to +£5.5bn.” So the 0.08 per cent figure is a complete misrepresentation.” |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 14:17:24 GMT
Re-Sunak & university courses. The government could end tuition fees tomorrow if it wanted so that students wouldn't be saddled with (as much) debt. " Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most
Chris Belfield Jack Britton Laura van der Erve Published on 11 May 2017 Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most" IFS 2017 ...probably around £11bn to £12bn pa now Colin did you check what the 2017 article was referring to ifs.org.uk/articles/labours-higher-education-proposals-will-cost-ps8bn-year-although-increase-deficit-moreYesterday’s leaked Labour manifesto included a commitment to scrap tuition fees Perhaps you're not aware but that policy was scrapped a while ago |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 14:19:12 GMT
" Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most
Chris Belfield Jack Britton Laura van der Erve Published on 11 May 2017 Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most" IFS 2017 ...probably around £11bn to £12bn pa now Colin did you check what the 2017 article was referring to ifs.org.uk/articles/labours-higher-education-proposals-will-cost-ps8bn-year-although-increase-deficit-moreYesterday’s leaked Labour manifesto included a commitment to scrap tuition fees Perhaps you're not aware but that policy was scrapped a while ago it is hard to keep up with all the changes 🤯🤯🤯 |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 14:23:56 GMT
colin Re your quote, so Conservative Home think it will be worth a lot more and those criticising it are just sneering at it Can't say their take on it came as much of a surprise Which quote ? I havent quoted from Con Home ?? |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 14:25:41 GMT
colin Re your quote, so Conservative Home think it will be worth a lot more and those criticising it are just sneering at it Can't say their take on it came as much of a surprise You you might have meant my quote, but they are citing the official analysis, which pointed out itself the limitations of the analysis. “ The report added that “this increase is not an economic forecast… UK exports have the potential to grow by 65% by 2030, not included in the static estimates…For example, as CPTPP expands to include Thailand and South Korea, the impact on UK GDP rises from +1.8bn to +£5.5bn.” So the 0.08 per cent figure is a complete misrepresentation.” No I was referring to Colins post, in particular Conservative Homes take on it when they said in relation to the 0.08% figure of the OBR 'sounds like a sneering reference to the claim' conservativehome.com/2023/05/26/the-obrs-estimates-about-the-cost-of-leaving-the-eu-disregards-some-of-the-key-benefits/ |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 14:26:11 GMT
" Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most
Chris Belfield Jack Britton Laura van der Erve Published on 11 May 2017 Labour’s Higher Education proposals will cost £8bn per year, although increase the deficit by more. Graduates who earn most in future would benefit most" IFS 2017 ...probably around £11bn to £12bn pa now Colin did you check what the 2017 article was referring to ifs.org.uk/articles/labours-higher-education-proposals-will-cost-ps8bn-year-although-increase-deficit-moreYesterday’s leaked Labour manifesto included a commitment to scrap tuition fees Perhaps you're not aware but that policy was scrapped a while ago I did-and I am. I was looking for an independent opinion on the cost of Mark suggestion-which i was responding to. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 14:27:39 GMT
You you might have meant my quote, but they are citing the official analysis, which pointed out itself the limitations of the analysis. “ The report added that “this increase is not an economic forecast… UK exports have the potential to grow by 65% by 2030, not included in the static estimates…For example, as CPTPP expands to include Thailand and South Korea, the impact on UK GDP rises from +1.8bn to +£5.5bn.” So the 0.08 per cent figure is a complete misrepresentation.” No I was referring to Colins post, Which one ? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 14:28:41 GMT
You you might have meant my quote, but they are citing the official analysis, which pointed out itself the limitations of the analysis. “ The report added that “this increase is not an economic forecast… UK exports have the potential to grow by 65% by 2030, not included in the static estimates…For example, as CPTPP expands to include Thailand and South Korea, the impact on UK GDP rises from +1.8bn to +£5.5bn.” So the 0.08 per cent figure is a complete misrepresentation.” No I was referring to Colins post, in particular Conservative Homes take on it when they said in relation to the 0.08% figure of the OBR 'sounds like a sneering reference to the claim' conservativehome.com/2023/05/26/the-obrs-estimates-about-the-cost-of-leaving-the-eu-disregards-some-of-the-key-benefits/Oh, ok? Deja vu. I might have missed his post somehow.. |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 14:31:46 GMT
Oh, ok? Deja vu. I might have missed his post somehow.. Sorry my apologies to Colin, it wasn't him, it was you |
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Post by neilj on Jul 18, 2023 14:33:12 GMT
No I was referring to Colins post, Which one ? Apologies, it was Carfrews post |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 14:33:31 GMT
Oh, ok? Deja vu. I might have missed his post somehow.. Sorry my apologies to Colin, it wasn't him, it was you Bloody hell, I was just getting used to being innocent! Anyway, like I said, they were quoting the official report which pointed out the limitations of the analysis in the way that the BBC didn’t. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 14:33:37 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w It's a massive exaggeration to think businesses will have reoriented from trading with partners a few miles away with those on the other side of the world.It's not going to happen. There is already reciprocal agreements of varying benefits with 9 out of 11 of the member nations. The Biden administration has no interest in joining the fascist republicans ruled it out some time ago. I've no idea where you got the quotation from "As Greg Hands wrote on this site, CPTPP has: “Half a billion consumers. A combined GDP of £9 trillion. A naturally pro-free trade club.” To ignore the benefit to our economy of joining it, or to suggest the benefit will be negligible, is quite absurd. But that is the way to fit the OBR narrative" Mail online maybe. But apart from the fact it flies in the face of the fact that this is the same regime that voluntarily imposed trade sanctions with our neighbouring 500 million strong £18 trillion GDP European union neighbours it remains broadly irrelevant. Even a 50% increase in the size of the trade within the CPTPP, would only boost the benefit to the UK to 0.12% of GDP.So just the thirty five times smaller than the cost of leaving the European union. Of course if the European union joined we wouldn't have to leave in any circumstances.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 14:34:14 GMT
colin You may not have needed to worry about Afghanistan as much as you did! Wasn't Tobias Ellwood one the "good Tories"? To be fair I wouldn't want to mock this entirely because there are all sorts of compromises we have to make with less than ideal regimes but this reads way too much like state sponsored propaganda and he even uses the word "progressive": Afghanistan is OK if you are a Pashtun male. If you are female or a non-Pashtun (particularly if you are not an adherent to Sunni Islam) then it's not so good. But I doubt Ellwood was allowed to meet any of them. Undoubtedly-so he should have said so. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 14:42:24 GMT
Two of Sunakered planned prison ships refused permission to dock in Liverpool and Edinburgh( port Leith) and have been returned to their owners.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 18, 2023 14:43:01 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w It's a massive exaggeration to think businesses will have reoriented from trading with partners a few miles away with those on the other side of the world.It's not going to happen. There is already reciprocal agreements of varying benefits with 9 out of 11 of the member nations. The Biden administration has no interest in joining the fascist republicans ruled it out some time ago. I've no idea where you got the quotation from "As Greg Hands wrote on this site, CPTPP has: “Half a billion consumers. A combined GDP of £9 trillion. A naturally pro-free trade club.” To ignore the benefit to our economy of joining it, or to suggest the benefit will be negligible, is quite absurd. But that is the way to fit the OBR narrative" Mail online maybe. But apart from the fact it flies in the face of the fact that this is the same regime that voluntarily imposed trade sanctions with our neighbouring 500 million strong £18 billion GDP European union neighbours it remains broadly irrelevant. Even a 50% increase in the size of the trade within the CPTPP, would only boost the benefit to the UK to 0.12% of GDP.So just the thirty five times smaller than the cost of leaving the European union. Of course if the European union joined we wouldn't have to leave in any circumstances. The source doesn’t matter if it’s correct Steve. Have you got some better and substantially different figures? The official report itself was talking of potentially bigger increases. But we are entering the realms of a very difficult debate: the whole “gravity” thing, and the argument that because of our expertise in services, some of which can be less subject to gravity, we might do more trade than people might think. I confess to not being at all sure about the gravity thing. I am prepared to accept that trade with the CPTPP may not amount to a great deal. But it isn’t a bad idea to consider the possibility that it might. And while Biden might not be keen to do a trade deal, someone else might. And then there is the optics of leaving yet another trade deal. So it’s not the case that either of us is “exaggerating”. You are putting more of the best case and I am putting more of the worst case as alternatives to consider. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 18, 2023 14:43:12 GMT
You know Neil, I nearly wrote a very similar post to yours. Then I thought maybe I should run it past my partner, the head teacher, just in case… She pointed out that some head teachers do something like that already. If they can’t make contact to sort out attendance in other ways via phone etc. then it’s policy at her school to call round the home. Apparently it rarely needs to get that far as the possibility of a visit from the Head is enough for most parents! Which is just as well because yes, there isn’t much time for that sort of thing BBc report suggested persistent absences have a lot to do with parents who simply dont think the school is poviding for their child's special needs. I wondered if that might be very variable between schools. Any thoughts? Does your partner's school have the average level of absences? |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 18, 2023 14:46:21 GMT
Looks like the Tangerine Traitor is about to be indicted in charges relating to his insurrection attempt after the last election. youtu.be/_GOtjiIDfFg |
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