Danny
Member
Posts: 10,361
|
Post by Danny on May 12, 2023 6:44:05 GMT
So basically con want to force lab to do it instead of them. Even though in con opinion pension age must rise, they dont want yet another thing voters will have to blame them for. Which voters should indeed do, because this would only be necessary given the miserable economic performance of the Uk throughout this run of conservative governments. Support brexit and pay for it by retiring later. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,361
|
Post by Danny on May 12, 2023 6:54:48 GMT
So I compared the recent GEs here to the most recent prior LE results; 2018 LE - LAB ahead by 7.0% 2019 LE - LAB ahead by 8.2% 2019 GE - LAB win by 0.9% 2016 LE - LAB ahead by 6.5% 2017 GE - LAB win by 16.9% 2014 LE - LAB ahead by 7.8% 2015 GE - LAB win by 7.3% 2008 LE - CON ahead by 11.4% 2010 GE - LAB win by 8.4% For a predictive model that is garbage. Yes this is only one seat, and maybe it's an outlier for some reasons. And obviously you'd rather be ahead than behind, whatever the metric is. But if the New Statesman are going to argue this data shows Labour are on track, surely they need to show that it's been a good predictor in the recent past? Or alternatively you could argue that the model failed after Brexit became an election issue. This induced huge swings in voter decisions at national elections compared to their local choice. Labours biggest win was in 2017, when it was seen as the hope for remainers. It could have repeated that performance in 2019, had it continued to be a clear remain party with a clear manifesto remain promise, but it isnt a commited remain/rejoin party. If you want rejoin, vote for someone else. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 7:10:48 GMT
Looks like CCHQ are going to roll with the "Knightmare" of 'Sir Keir + Sir Ed' v 'Remain with Rishi' I think the latest net migration figures emerge in a couple of weeks. From what I've heard they are likely to be very bad and Rishi's new policies haven't even turned into law yet. He's running out of time isn't he.....and then there's very stubborn food inflation.....rising borrowing costs etc....not looking good for CCHQ is it.....dear oh dear.😩 Also trying to present the bland and somewhat boring Starmer and Davey as some kind of scary threat doesn't seem likely to work. That tactic had some traction in respect of Corbyn in 2019 and the SNP in 2015, but the resolutely 'moderate' Starmer and Davey are hardly likely to frighten middle-English swing voters. |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 12, 2023 7:11:39 GMT
Off to Seahouses on the bus soon to go on a boat trip to the nearby Farne Islands. I've never seen a Puffin before.
Last year, 6,000 birds were found dead by rangers at the islands, home to colonies of rare species, including puffins and Arctic tern.
The islands will remain closed to the public until the end of the breeding season at the end of August.
But you will be able to see them from a distance. We sailed on the good ship St Cuthbert, run by a company called Billy Shiels and skippered/crewed by Geordies. Even though you were indeed right about the disembarkment restrictions on all the Farne Islands now, due to last year's avian flu outbreak, it was still a magnificent trip in benign weather conditions. We saw dolphins, grey seals and seabirds of many varieties. In great numbers too. I saw my first puffin. Well, I saw my first hundreds of them in fact. The Farne Islands are an avian marine wonderland. Some slightly better news on the avian flu outbreak too. On the way back to Seahouses Harbour, we picked up some National Trust rangers from Inner Farne Island, the site of the ancient St Cuthbert's Chapel. They work daily on the island, monitoring the bird population and the progress of the disease. I chatted to one or two of them who told me that whilst the outbreak hadn't totally subsided, there were signs of it dissipating sharply and populations recovering. The NT rangers worked every day on the island, and sometimes overnight too, staying in what passed for habitable accommodation on the small island. They were a fine body of dedicated young people who seemed as delighted as any of us when we were escorted back to harbour by a pod of dolphins. Always inspires me when I meet young people like these. Gives me hope for the future. Our generation must help them build a better world for them to live in. A generational legacy we can then be proud of. That legacy can only be granted though by a sea change in attitude and way of life amongst people of my age. And a wholesale ceding of political influence too. It's time the generation I met on that boat yesterday were given the levers to shape the world that lies ahead of them and their children. Gerontocracies are quite often self interested and toxic things. Backward looking, self-pitying and grievance ridden. First commitment of the Crossbat manifesto. Drop the voting age to 16 and make it easier for young people to vote, not more difficult. |
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on May 12, 2023 7:13:52 GMT
Slightly baffling that Conservative ministers are still saying we need to delay the pension age, when life expectancy is currently falling, Sounds as though they are looking at a great way of reducing the cost of pensions - increase the age for paying it out while hoping that individuals will collect it for a shorter time. Provided they can distract enough people from looking into the numbers, they might get away with it |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on May 12, 2023 7:22:52 GMT
@danny
All Brexit did was steal U.K.citizens freedom of movement rights and discourage European union citizens from staying or going through the stupidity of visa application.
The regime illegal illegal immigration bill is of course not aimed at immigration of any form it's aimed to abrogate our international responsibilities for asylum seekers under the terms of international law.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on May 12, 2023 7:24:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by EmCat on May 12, 2023 7:32:10 GMT
Always inspires me when I meet young people like these. Gives me hope for the future. Our generation must help them build a better world for them to live in. A generational legacy we can then be proud of. That legacy can only be granted though by a sea change in attitude and way of life amongst people of my age. And a wholesale ceding of political influence too. It's time the generation I met on that boat yesterday were given the levers to shape the world that lies ahead of them and their children. Gerontocracies are quite often self interested and toxic things. Backward looking, self-pitying and grievance ridden. First commitment of the Crossbat manifesto. Drop the voting age to 16 and make it easier for young people to vote, not more difficult. That insight, based on observations of actually going out and seeing some of how things are, rather than how the policy wonks think they should be, suggests that politicians (of all flavours) should get out more. Less of the scripted PR photo opportunity, and more of actually taking time just to see the country. I'd add that, as well as making it easier to vote, there also needs to be a political party that, if not aimed at the young, at least remembers that they exist. And hence is worth the young voting at all. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,390
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 7:33:55 GMT
I think the latest net migration figures emerge in a couple of weeks. From what I've heard they are likely to be very bad and Rishi's new policies haven't even turned into law yet. He's running out of time isn't he.....and then there's very stubborn food inflation.....rising borrowing costs etc....not looking good for CCHQ is it.....dear oh dear.😩 Also trying to present the bland and somewhat boring Starmer and Davey as some kind of scary threat doesn't seem likely to work. That tactic had some traction in respect of Corbyn in 2019 and the SNP in 2015, but the resolutely 'moderate' Starmer and Davey are hardly likely to frighten middle-English swing voters. Agree, certainly labelling Davey as a threat is akin to try and make people frightened of the Andrex Puppy |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 7:40:04 GMT
Trevor, I don't use the quote option as several posters have pointed out we end up with often long posts being quoted in full when only a part is relevant.... I have quoted from the Gleneagles Agreement below directly so the Alliance can get the FM or DFM even if seems highly unlikely as 'Others' would have the most (or second most) designated MLAs. ''The Nominating Officer of the largest party in the largest designation in the Assembly shall make a nomination to the Assembly Presiding Officer for the post of First Minister. The Nominating Officer of the largest party in the second largest designation in the Assembly shall similarly nominate for the post of Deputy First Minister'' I've gone back to ignoring a lot of people but it is still easy to scroll past posts if you don't "quote" the reply or at least "tag" someone (eg jimjam). You can use "..." and delete a section that doesn't need to be repeated. I don't know about other people but quoting a link for your source is also useful. I checked on google and all I can find for 'Gleneagles Agreement' is International opposition to apartheid in South Africa. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleneagles_AgreementNI is not my polity but the section you quote (with no source provided) could very easily make the assumption, possibly clarified elsewhere, that the two largest parties would be one from Republican side and one from Unionist side - which AFAIK is how people have 'interpreted' the 'Power Sharing' agreement. IE
The First and Deputy First Ministers, one unionist and one nationalist, have equal powers. One cannot be in position without the other.education.niassembly.gov.uk/post-16/snapshots-devolution/belfastgood-friday-agreement/power-sharingOf course it is possible that a NI site for education in NI also has it wrong - hence can you please provide a link for your source. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 7:44:04 GMT
On the Britain Elects/New Statesman 'ward by ward' analysis. The one thing they don't seem to address about the comparison is whether LE results can be shown to be a useful predictor of GE outcomes. I had a look at the seat I'm now in, Coventry South - as Cov elects by thirds (so one candidate per party per ward each year) and there is very little significant third party/independent voting in recent years, it avoids a lot of the data issues PJW outlined earlier. It's currently a very marginal Labour seat so doesn't appear in the New Statesman table but if it did it'd show Labour ahead 47% to 33%. So far so good - a very marginal seat last time ought to be a safe hold this time if Labour are heading for power. So I compared the recent GEs here to the most recent prior LE results; 2018 LE - LAB ahead by 7.0% 2019 LE - LAB ahead by 8.2% 2019 GE - LAB win by 0.9% 2016 LE - LAB ahead by 6.5% 2017 GE - LAB win by 16.9% 2014 LE - LAB ahead by 7.8% 2015 GE - LAB win by 7.3% 2008 LE - CON ahead by 11.4% 2010 GE - LAB win by 8.4% For a predictive model that is garbage. Yes this is only one seat, and maybe it's an outlier for some reasons. And obviously you'd rather be ahead than behind, whatever the metric is. But if the New Statesman are going to argue this data shows Labour are on track, surely they need to show that it's been a good predictor in the recent past? Not my job to defend the New Statesman's approach but I'm happy to present the argument they make in the article that accompanies the table. They haven't based their conclusion on looking at votes in individual seats, then assuming the party ahead 'wins' it and saying there are enough of those for a Labour majority. Rather their case is in two stages, it seems to me: (a) they ask whether the local election results support the opinion polls in suggesting that Labour are circa 15% ahead (allowing for the known differences between polls and LEs). Their conclusion is that they do ("If we look at council seats that were up for election both last year and this year, and featured Labour and Conservative candidates, we can detect a similar pattern. Of the 5,000 wards contested this year, more than 1,000 match this criteria. In 2022 the average Tory vote share in these wards was 31 per cent; this year it was 27 per cent. Labour, meanwhile, saw its average vote increase from 39 per cent last year to 41 per cent this year. That makes Labour’s rise two points smaller than the national polls and, conversely, the Tories’ fall one point larger. But, in truth, the difference in numbers isn’t all that significant. Broadly, the shift in comparable English wards appears to be reflecting the national polls.") That in itself would be an indicator of a healthy Labour position for the GE less than 18 months out. (b) Secondly, they argue that the electoral geography has shifted in Labour's favour since 2019. For example: "Excluding the smaller parties for a moment, Labour needs to win 123 Conservative seats to achieve a majority of one in the House of Commons (326 seats). In reality, that number is obviously smaller, because some of Labour’s target seats are held by the SNP, but stay with me a moment. That majority of one, assuming a uniform swing, would come in the shape of Bassetlaw (which would go to Labour by an ultra-thin margin). In this year’s local elections, Labour topped the polls in Bassetlaw with 51 per cent of the vote to the Conservatives’ 34 per cent." So they are not 'predicting' the Bassetlaw result as 51-34 in a GE, but saying that in a seat Labour would win by a tiny margin to get an OM they are comfortably ahead. The NS construe this as a breaking of the Brexit coalition Johnson assembled in 2019. Given there is also polling evidence for this, it seems a reasonable proposition. They also say that Uniform Swing will not apply, and is likely to be a very poor estimation of the final result - I think most on here would agree with that. The NS say: "I wonder if the absence of a uniform swing may have coloured analyses and seat projections based on partial results. We are seeing bigger swings in safe seats than in more marginal ones. In one sense, we can read this as Labour’s vote – or rather the anti-Conservative vote – being efficiently distributed. Whatever the complexity of the national swing, the situation is certainly discouraging for the Conservatives. For the party to be defeated in Medway as badly as it was in Wakefield and Hartlepool does not bode well for its hopes of a fifth election victory." Final conclusion: "When one considers all this, alongside the fact that the national average swing in comparable Con-Lab wards mirrors that which we see in national polling, I struggle to see how Labour is not on course for a majority at the general election." |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 12, 2023 7:44:49 GMT
Well, as I ponder a bit of light breakfast in our cottage at Low Newton by the Sea, and gaze out of the window on some fast encroaching sea mist enveloping the bay below, I think this might be a good time for a valedictory post. It's our last day in this wondrous part of the British Isles and we need to make the most of it before the long journey home to the Vale of Evesham tomorrow.
Besides, I need to concentrate on completing my FA Cup odyssey when I get home. The final challenge, quite literally. No ticket yet, but I'm determined to be there on June 3rd. It would be sad to fall at the last hurdle so I intend to be at the all Manchester jamboree at Wembley. It has the makings of a memorable game too.
From Rushall on a warm late summer's afternoon in early September last year to Wembley in June for a game between two of English football's giants. From that bus stop in Walsall, via Redditch, Peterborough, Ashton under Lyne, Cambridge, Grimsby, Luton, Southampton, Brighton and North London. Buses, trains, cars, one or two overnight stops, 12 rounds, 15 games including 3 replays and countless ports of call along the way.
It's become, surprisingly in many ways, an intensely personal journey. I've undertaken it single-handedly, an originally unintended solitary journey. I've met many people along the way, and benefitted from the kindness and company of strangers, but the joy has been the opportunity to reflect and contemplate, to be the master of my own itinerary, to explore whims, diversions and many byways along the way. That looks interesting, let's go there. An underrated freedom.
To wallow too in some of the backwaters of England and look at our most vital and vibrant sport in a totally different way. To appreciate how cherished it is by local communities and how, below the ugliness and venality that often passes for elite football now, there still lies a wonderful old game that hasn't lost its capacity to give joy and to enhance life.
Adieu.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on May 12, 2023 7:51:02 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-65385813The Farne Islands have been shut to visitors after a bird flu outbreak for a second year at the seabirds' colony.
Last year, 6,000 birds were found dead by rangers at the islands, home to colonies of rare species, including puffins and Arctic tern.
The islands will remain closed to the public until the end of the breeding season at the end of August.
But you will be able to see them from a distance. We sailed on the good ship St Cuthbert, run by a company called Billy Shiels and skippered/crewed by Geordies. Even though you were indeed right about the disembarkment restrictions on all the Farne Islands now, due to last year's avian flu outbreak, it was still a magnificent trip in benign weather conditions. We saw dolphins, grey seals and seabird of many varieties. In great numbers too. I saw my first puffin. Well, I saw my first hundreds of them in fact. The Farne Islands are an avian marine wonderland. Some slightly better news on the avian flu outbreak too. On the way back to Seahouses Harbour, we picked up some National Trust rangers from Inner Farne Island, the site of the ancient St Cuthbert's Chapel. They work daily on the island, monitoring the bird population and the progress of the disease. I chatted to one or two of them who told me that whilst the outbreak hadn't totally subsided, there were signs of it dissipating sharply and populations recovering. The NT rangers worked every day on the island, and sometimes overnight too, staying in what passed for habitable accommodation on the small island. They were a fine body of dedicated young people who seemed as delighted as any of us when we were escorted back to harbour by a pod of dolphins. Always inspires me when I meet young people like these. Gives me hope for the future. Our generation must help them build a better world for them to live in. A generational legacy we can then be proud of. That legacy can only be granted though by a sea change in attitude and way of life amongst people of my age. And a wholesale ceding of political influence too. It's time the generation I met on that boat yesterday were given the levers to shape the world that lies ahead of them and their children. Gerontocracies are quite often self interested and toxic things. Backward looking, self-pitying and grievance ridden. First commitment of the Crossbat manifesto. Drop the voting age to 16 and make it easier for young people to vote, not more difficult. A thousand likes. One thing that's become very clear to me in recent years both due to events in the wider world and experience within my own wider family is that the idea of wisdom coming with age is absolutely for the birds. All that happens is that existing prejudices become hardened, exacerbated with an ever smaller willingness and/or capacity to have them challenged accompanied by a sense of entitlement that the world bend to those prejudices. Maybe that second point more boomer specific rather than a characteristic of over 65s generally however as they have been such an entitled, self-focussed generation over the whole course of their lives with government after government kneeling before them as if they were the centre of the world. |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 7:55:08 GMT
I think the latest net migration figures emerge in a couple of weeks. From what I've heard they are likely to be very bad and Rishi's new policies haven't even turned into law yet. He's running out of time isn't he.....and then there's very stubborn food inflation.....rising borrowing costs etc....not looking good for CCHQ is it.....dear oh dear.😩 A lot of people conflate 'legal immigration' (eg Students, Ukraine, HK, etc) with 'illegal' (or 'irregular' as they sometimes call it in Brussels) - perhaps you are one such person? A GE is still a long way away but as to your other points then:
Food prices set to come back down soon, supermarket chiefs promisewww.independent.co.uk/news/business/food-prices-supermarkets-inflation-cost-living-b2337532.html(folks can also check countries like Germany who report inflation data with less lag than UK and see that is already happening - your "stubborn" perhaps shows a lack of understanding of how base effects work and I doubt you are alone in that either) Could look at borrowing costs around the World but given LAB HQ seek to personally blame Rishi for that then I hope, to avoid being called hypocrites, then LAB HQ will also personally recognise Rishi and CON HMG for when BoE start cutting* rates - possibly later this year, very likely through in 2024. The 'market' and BoE* et al's inflation forecasts might wrong and if you don't understand 'base effects' then I doubt you'll understand futures prices but Sep'24 contract is about 1% below Sep'23 - which implies rate cuts leading into GE'24. I don't have a time machine but petrol prices are already coming down (and will come further) and I've posted polling that shows people see that the 'tide is turning' on CON's handling of economy You are of course entitled to ignore base effects, market forecasts/pricing, etc but in 18mths time?? We'll see how things look then shall we  * Repost of BoE's latest MPR. Note BoE have one of the worst forecasts out there but to justify hiking rates they've certainly 'tampered' with the timeline for their forecasts and seem to also downplay the near certain "-ve" inflation that will come from food prices later this year. www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2023/may-2023EG Wheat price has dropped massively and is now even below the price when Russia invaded Ukraine. There is a 'lag' between commodity prices and 'shop' prices but is a near certainty that food prices will DROP (ie -ve inflation) later this year tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 12, 2023 7:55:41 GMT
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 7:56:11 GMT
Besides, I need to concentrate on completing my FA Cup odyssey when I get home. The final challenge, quite literally. No ticket yet, but I'm determined to be there on June 3rd. It would be sad to fall at the last hurdle so I intend to be at the all Manchester jamboree at Wembley. It has the makings of a memorable game too. If you end up reduced to trying to buy a ticket outside the ground, don't carry string in your pocket or else the local bobbies will have you locked in the cells for 18 hours. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on May 12, 2023 7:58:14 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 12, 2023 8:06:35 GMT
Steve - some of the coverage reminds me of early days of Aids when parts of the media and politicians repeatedly referred to innocent victims of Aids.
By which they meant Haemophiliacs with the clear implication that Gay Men or women who had more than one partner were not innocent.
So this Aussie Royalist is an innocent Bystander while the 'legal' demonstrators weren't.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 12, 2023 8:15:37 GMT
I wonder when the mortgage markets will start to reflect the likely reductions in base rates later this year and in to next in their fixed rate products?
Electorally, the lower remortgages this year the better for the Tories of course.
If mine was due for renewal now I would probably move to the SVR and wait 6-12 months.
|
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on May 12, 2023 8:29:35 GMT
I wonder when the mortgage markets will start to reflect the likely reductions in base rates later this year and in to next in their fixed rate products? Electorally, the lower remortgages this year the better for the Tories of course. If mine was due for renewal now I would probably move to the SVR and wait 6-12 months. I had to do that as mine expired during the rising base rates - still waiting to refix |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 8:36:53 GMT
Thank you for providing your source. I saw Wiki* had mentioned St.Andrews but it is still a bit unclear IMO. Lots of mention of 'cross-community' in St.Andrews agreement and in 2006 the two largest parties were one Republican and one Unionist - with possibly the expectation that would always be the case? It would seem strange to me that pretty much everyone (including the NI education services) believe it needs to be a 'cross-community' FM+DFM (ie one from each side). NB I'm not saying Alliance couldn't have one of the roles already - just that a lot of people seem to assume it has to be one from each side. Given a 'neutral' as largest or 2nd largest party situation has never arisen then we'll see what happens if/when that does occur. However, what is perhaps of more interest is the first part of part 9 that mentions that the Northern Ireland (Elections) Act 1998 can (and has) been amended. That is IMO of more importance (so thank you for the link). NI Assembly was suspended "from October 2002 to May 2007" which led to "Multi-party talks in October 2006 resulted in the St Andrews Agreement,"... TBC but with another long suspension of the NI Assembly then perhaps further amendments (tweaks) are needed. Clear clarification that 'cross community' can allow a 'neutral' to be either FM or DFM, being only one such amendment that is IMO needed - as discussed y'day. The main change needs to be to stop one party (that could take up FM or DFM role) being able to suspend the entire executive if they throw a strop and go on strike. Maybe DUP "move" so no change is needed yet, maybe HH makes the change or perhaps the can is kicked to Starmer and NI Assembly stay suspended through GE'24? * en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly# |
|
|
|
Post by wb61 on May 12, 2023 8:39:19 GMT
Just tried Bard (AI) and asked for a poem in the style of Hiawatha, which portrayed Rishi Sunak as the negative character and it came up with this in less than a second:
From the world of finance and greed,
From the banks and the stock exchanges,
From the great cities of the world,
From the land of the wealthy,
In the days of long ago,
Came a young man to the nations,
Came a villain to the people,
Wisdom in his head,
And the beauty of youth upon him,
And the fire of youth in his eyes,
And the strength of youth in his sinews,
And the heart of youth in his bosom.
And he said: "I am Rishi Sunak,
Here I come from the world of finance,
From the land of the wealthy,
From the land of the foaming markets,
From the land of the seven banks,
From the land of the seven seas,
And I bring to the nations
Nothing but misery and despair."
And the people made answer,
"We do not want you, Rishi Sunak,
We do not want your misery and despair,
We do not want your greed and corruption,
We do not want your wealth and power,
We do not want you to be our leader,
We do not want you to lead our businesses,
We do not want you to create jobs,
We do not want you to make us prosperous."
But Rishi Sunak did not listen,
He took his pen and paper,
And he started to work,
And he created misery and despair.
And the people were unhappy,
And they hated Rishi Sunak,
And they called him the Chancellor,
For he brought misery and despair
To the nations.
I am impressed and fearful at the same time, whilst recognising that in Dr Johnson's words it is like a dog's walking on his hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all, nonetheless the speed at which this technology is developing is of some concern.
Not sure Bard is as good as ChatGPT going to give the same instruction to compare.
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 8:46:28 GMT
I wonder when the mortgage markets will start to reflect the likely reductions in base rates later this year and in to next in their fixed rate products? Electorally, the lower remortgages this year the better for the Tories of course. If mine was due for renewal now I would probably move to the SVR and wait 6-12 months. Fixed rate mortgages are priced off longer term interest rates (eg 5yrs uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/gbp-5-years-irs-interest-rate-swap-streaming-chart ). They are already lower than the SVR in most cases and anyone with a mortgage coming off a fix or currently on SVR should carefully consider their options for sure. I expect them to drop further but then I don't have a mortgage. Being on the 'other side of the fence' then I have locked in some long-term rates via fixed rate bonds (eg you can get 4.95% for a 7y 'govt guaranteed' bond* and also 15yr+ gilt index which is a proxy for my need for annuity at some point) Enough from me for now. Folks can look that up if they want to. Fixed rate deals have already come down a lot since the 'Truss error' but are obviously a lot higher than the 'Magic Money Tree' era (in UK, US, EZ, etc). * www.raisin.co.uk/term-deposit/isb009-isbank-uk/?#bank-product-detailsGovt guaranteed up to £85k. Make sure to use different banks for any larger amount. Some folks might want to avoid certain banks for personal reasons as well. |
|
|
|
Post by James E on May 12, 2023 9:00:20 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 9:01:21 GMT
I am impressed and fearful at the same time, Me too. Amusing ditties apart, it is the speed of response which is so startling. I had a demo from a grandson recently. His generation believe it to be a force for good of course. So my fb posts of the stream of senior IT Industry figures , recently warning of the risks , met with derision. Today in the Times I read that Masayashi Son compares it with the invention of "The Internet" , whilst The Sage of Advertising , Sir Martin Sorrell, says it will " change the economics of everything".( including the destruction of call centre jobs ) At the risk of joining UKPR2's Pseuds Corner , I think we may be on the verge of a game changing inflection point at a crossroads in the life of humanity. ...or maybe not ?  |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 9:12:28 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 12, 2023 10:01:38 GMT
James E/pjw - tbc of course but the LD uplift doesn't seem to have lasted long.
|
|
johntel
Member
Posts: 1,670
Member is Online
|
Post by johntel on May 12, 2023 10:11:32 GMT
James E/pjw - tbc of course but the LD uplift doesn't seem to have lasted long. Isn't it funny how only when voters are forced to stop and think and actually toddle along to the polling station that they suddenly start supporting the LDs? |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2023 10:35:32 GMT
James E/pjw - tbc of course but the LD uplift doesn't seem to have lasted long. Isn't it funny how only when voters are forced to stop and think and actually toddle along to the polling station that they suddenly start supporting the LDs? |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on May 12, 2023 10:39:41 GMT
Johntel, agree in locals but 2010 was the last time for a GE.
Also there is often some 'flavour of the month (me too)' impact from habitual non voters in opinion polls.
TV viewers, especially in the South and home counties, would have seen plenty of good night for the LDs items on the news (which was accurate of course).
Memories fade but I would have expected a boost to last longer than a week, maybe it will we need a few more polls to judge.
|
|
