24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[pjw1961]

Since it is impossible to have too much of a good thing, I am saddened to report that there are no local government by-elections today. There is one next week, of which more nearer to the event.

[jimjam]

PjW and we have council elections in Northern Ireland next Thursday of course.

The fear of letting the other side in is not as prevalent as for the assembly elections and may reduce DUP and SF first preferences but let's see.

[pjw1961]

May 11, 2023 15:48:29 GMT jimjam said:

PjW and we have council elections in Northern Ireland next Thursday of course.

The fear of letting the other side in is not as prevalent as for the assembly elections and may reduce DUP and SF first preferences but let's see.

I'm interested of course, but NI is even more of an alternative political reality than Scotland, with the absence of British parties. 

[alec]

Slightly baffling that Conservative ministers are still saying we need to delay the pension age, when life expectancy is currently falling, and those who monitor this are saying that covid has changed the longevity landscape on a permanent basis, bringing shorter lives and...cheaper pensions. www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/uk-will-have-to-raise-retirement-age-after-election-minister-says

It's even now being picked up in the business press, with Bloombergs running a story about the 'silver lining' of reduced pension liabilities for companies.

I don't quite think most people have yet grasped the implications of continued covid; work through it, when you're younger, because "it's just a cold", and then die early, "because it only affects the old and vulnerable".

Once again though, while the broadsheets continue to sail serenely by, the red tops appear far more twitchy. Yesterday's entire front page splash in the Mirror was a feature on the disastrous toll of long covid. I think the information is starting to break through in some sections of the press, but the Sun, Mirror and even the Express seem more keen to focus on the true picture than pretend it's all gone away. I have to say that the balance of such coverage has surprised me somewhat.

[Mr Poppy]

May 11, 2023 15:48:29 GMT jimjam said:

..we have council elections in Northern Ireland next Thursday of course.

The fear of letting the other side in is not as prevalent as for the assembly elections and may reduce DUP and SF first preferences but let's see.

I posted some polling and commentary on NI y'day.

Beyond the actual results then it will be interesting to see if DUP "move" once the LEs are out of the way or if they stay on a pointless strike. If they stay on strike, then might HH up the ante (eg call new Stormont election but with changes made to avoid any one party preventing an NI executive from forming*). Not my polity but the 'default' is DUP stay on strike, with NI governed by CON HMG rather than Stormont - potentially until 6 May'27

Whilst it is not currently Starmer's problem then I know you have links with the LAB view on NI so wonder if you've heard anything about how LAB would deal with DUP's "strike"?

* Covered previously but one option is a quorum of MLAs elect a speaker and then offer the FM job to the leader of biggest party and DFM job to the leader of the second biggest party. If the leader of those parties does not want the FM/DFM job then the position if offered to the third largest party (potentially ensuring 'one' Republican and 'one' Unionist in each of the two power sharing roles - although a more aggressive move would be to remove the Republican/Unionist issue entirely and give Alliance the possibility of FM/DFM). Similar approach for the ministerial positions. Hence any party that doesn't want to show up to work is ignored and would have no positions within the NI Executive. 

Changes to how an NI Executive form are irrelevant to the NI LEs but should IMO be a precursor to the next Stormont elections - DUP have being allowed to stay on strike for the LEs but once those are over then I hope HH fires up the bus and makes it clear (firstly to DUP, then everyone in NI) that CON HMG will drive it the bus back over DUP if the DUP continue to behave like toddlers. TimesUp, Enough is Enough. 

[Deleted]

May 11, 2023 15:15:15 GMT hireton said:

The right wing culture war having one of its intended effect:

www.thenational.scot/news/23515797.uk-plummets-table-safe-lgbt-countries-hate-crime-rises/?ref=twtrec

Victor Madrigal-Borloz  has just released his End of mission statement following his visit to the UK.

It makes for very sober reading for some sections of the community, and indeed for those who care about the UK's international reputation regarding its respect for Human Rights

22. In a meeting with the EHRC on 4 May 2023, the Independent Expert was shocked to hear that the
EHRC offered that advice without itself having any definition of ‘biological sex’; UK law provides no
such definition either. The EHRC however specifically conceded that, in the context of the letter, the
intended meaning of the term “biological sex” is to define women as “women who are not trans.” As oneCommissioner elaborated: “under the Equality Act, [...] a trans woman who does have a GRC is a woman under the current case law. [...] if the government decides to make the amendment, they don’t need to
define biological sex, they can do it by way of exclusion of the GRA.” It then follows that the objective
of the EHRC was to offer the Government a formula through which it could carry out discriminatory
distinctions currently unlawful under UK law, and that will remain so under international human rights
law. The Independent Expert is of the opinion that this action of the EHRC is wholly unbecoming of an
institution created to “stand up for those in need of protection and hold governments to account for their
human rights obligations” (mission statement, EHRC webpage; emphasis added)

2

[Mr Poppy]

Looks like CCHQ are going to roll with the "Knightmare" of 'Sir Keir + Sir Ed' v 'Remain with Rishi'

Given the "seasonality" of small boat crossings then Rishi-Braverman might want to get the Rwanda scheme up and running in UK's Winter 2023-4. That is still a nice time of year in Rwanda so accommodation in Rwanda can be scaled up very quickly as soon as it becomes clear flights will start up, but hopefully the 'deterrent' aspect will kick in pretty quickly.

PS It's unclear how quickly Rwanda would process asylum claims but "turn around time" for the accommodation that UK taxpayers are paying for will hopefully be fairly short. Hence, purely for illustration then rapidly scale up to 1,000 beds (some of which could be tents) with a 2week turn around = 2,000 claims processed pcm (hence why starting up the Rwanda flights in UK's Winter in the 'off season' for the criminal gangs using small boats). Starting it up sooner would mean more tent accommodation and/or faster processing in Rwanda.  

[neilj]

There is concern about Truss visiting Taiwan, but the Hotel have said they have put in extra security measures in.... to protect their towels and dressing gowns

[Deleted]

May 11, 2023 17:12:32 GMT neilj said:

There is concern about Truss visiting Taiwan, but the Hotel have said they have put in extra security measures in.... to protect their towels and dressing gowns

It's hard to know if that was intended as a joke or not !

Liz Truss disputing £12,000 bill relating to use of Chevening grace-and-favour house Invoice for ex-PM’s time at Kent mansion when foreign secretary is thought to include sums for missing bathrobes and party business

[Mr Poppy]

I've about as much interest in seeing the below as watching the coronation or Eurovision but some people might be interested in TONY! Might be some lessons NewLABv2 can take from a reminder of NewLABv1?

[steve]

Personally I prefer a chair.

[oldnat]

What an interesting place E&W is turning out to be! If you stand next to someone who might just possibly going to be a nuisance to the state, you can get to experience being handcuffed, shoved into a police van and kept locked up for the day.

That would be useful information to put on the Visit England website.

[Danny]

May 11, 2023 16:11:49 GMT alec said:

Slightly baffling that Conservative ministers are still saying we need to delay the pension age, when life expectancy is currently falling, and those who monitor this are saying that covid has changed the longevity landscape on a permanent basis, bringing shorter lives and...cheaper pensions. www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/uk-will-have-to-raise-retirement-age-after-election-minister-says

Age at death now is largely governed by health of people now. Age of death when curent 40 year olds get to that point will be determined by their health at that time. Plainly the government does not believe that covid will have had any impact on that. Levels of NHS funding likely will affect the average age at death a bit, but its also likely one or other government will be forced to boost NHS funding, unless something dramatic happens like the Uk going bust. If it does of course that will probably have the dual effects of making pensions even less affordable, but also reducing death age. So maybe balance out, but if it does anything it will move us to the unaffordable side and therefore an even later retirement age.

In general improvements in life expectancy have been down to cheap measures like vaccinations against diseases for which they are actually effective (ie not covid), stopping smoking, better understanding of diet, less poisonous pollutants, safer working environments.  The really expensive medical care comes into effect in the last few years, so how well or badly that is funded will only affect the people who are old and approaching death whenn they get there.

Its curious that financial advisors and government often argue that the state pension is inadequate so people need an additional pension. But pension seems to have kept pace surprisingly well with average wages, about the only state benefit which has.  I guess because the rich half of the population gets the same pension as the poor, this has influenced thinking in contrast to other benefits.  People will remember the fuss about trying to end child benefits for the rich.

I don't quite think most people have yet grasped the implications of continued covid; work through it, when you're younger, because "it's just a cold", and then die early, "because it only affects the old and vulnerable".

I think some people find it difficult to reconcile the world wide acceptance that covid was just a blip and vastly over hyped in terms of harms it could ever have done, with the fact that governments used deliberate lies in propaganda to enforce public obedience with rules which eg downing street staff didnt actually believe in. Its just the same as trump constantly  claiming he was robbed of his election win, say something enough and some people will believe it. Doesnt make it true, however. You seem unable to accept that the massive interventions used against covid in the UK and many other places were simply unnecessary and a vast waste of national wealth. Although quite a bit seems to have found its way into  the hands of 'friends and family', and obviously out of national funds into the profits of various companies in general. So there is a silver lining for any party which believes in diverting as much money as possible from private individuals into the hands of the elite.

[Danny]

May 11, 2023 18:57:54 GMT oldnat said:

What an interesting place E&W is turning out to be! If you stand next to someone who might just possibly going to be a nuisance to the state, you can get to experience being handcuffed, shoved into a police van and kept locked up for the day.

That would be useful information to put on the Visit England website.

Do people think the King should issue her with a public apology on behalf of the British people, and invite her again to tea?

Of course, that would amount to a political statement the government did something wrong, so....


Or should the king to nothing, thereby admitting he is utterly powerless to do anything whatever in his own kingdom?

[oldnat]

May 11, 2023 19:25:36 GMT Danny said:

May 11, 2023 18:57:54 GMT oldnat said:

What an interesting place E&W is turning out to be! If you stand next to someone who might just possibly going to be a nuisance to the state, you can get to experience being handcuffed, shoved into a police van and kept locked up for the day.

That would be useful information to put on the Visit England website.

Do people think the King should issue her with a public apology on behalf of the British people, and invite her again to tea?

Of course, that would amount to a political statement the government did something wrong, so....


Or should the king to nothing, thereby admitting he is utterly powerless to do anything whatever in his own kingdom?

The king was in his counting house,
Counting out his money.
The queen was in the parlour,
Eating bread and honey.

The Aussie girl was in the Mall,
Wearing her best clothes,
When along came a copper
And nicked her for being next to some suspicious types who might have had the intention of gluing themselves nose to nose.

[jimjam]

Trevor,

Alliance can be the FM under current rules as it is nominated by the party with the most MLAs.

Deputy First Minister is nominated by the largest party within the largest designation that is not the first minister.

The Alliance is designated - 'Other' so are Greens and PBP.

Re Labour and DUP staying out of Stormont, they have the luxury of being able to say they would persuade but I think the elections would have not been delayed under Labour, certainly not for as along.

[oldnat]

Remember the disparity in economic output and living standards between those living in a forward looking European West Germany, and those in the East cut off from their neighbours and forced to live in an isolationist, totalitarian backwater?

In Ireland, it's the same - just South and North.

[Mr Poppy]

May 11, 2023 20:18:20 GMT jimjam said:

Trevor,

Alliance can be the FM under current rules as it is nominated by the party with the most MLAs.

Deputy First Minister is nominated by the largest party within the largest designation that is not the first minister.

The Alliance is designated - 'Other' so are Greens and PBP.

Re Labour and DUP staying out of Stormont, they have the luxury of being able to say they would persuade but I think the elections would have not been delayed under Labour, certainly not for as along.

Firstly, I'll kindly once again ask that you use the "quote" function for a reply.

However, I assume you refer to my earlier reply to you:
ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/83331/thread

WRT to who can/can't be FM+DFM then the situation of an 'other' being one of the two largest parties has never arisen but I'll quote:

"Since 2006 the first minister has been chosen by the largest party in the assembly. If this is a unionist party, then the deputy minister is drawn from the largest nationalist party, and vice versa.
Both ministers have equal powers, and one cannot be in office without the other. If either the first minister or the deputy first minister resigns, the other is also forced to resign, whether they want to or not"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57583168

The second part is the section that certainly needs to be changed IMO but the first highlighted section suggest that an 'other' party can be neither FM or DFM - although the situation of an 'other' being largest or 2nd largest has never occurred to date but 'power sharing' was designed to ensure Republican and Unionist parties held FM+DFM positions (or vice versa).

Holding new Stormont elections without changing the 'power sharing' agreement would be pointless as DUP would likely win 2nd place and continue their strike. Hence why IMO the agreement needs a 'tweak' before a new Stormont election is held.

[jib]

Easy win for Labour?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/11/uk-will-have-to-raise-retirement-age-after-election-minister-says

UK will have to raise retirement age after election, minister says
Work and pensions secretary says his successor will have to ‘grasp nettle’ of bringing forward rise to 68

[eor]

May 11, 2023 7:58:16 GMT moby said:

May 11, 2023 7:50:51 GMT wb61 said:

Rhun ap Iorwerth interviewed me on TV a long time ago when he was a Wales Today reporter. He is intelligent and a good debater and no doubt will be popular with the committed supporter. However he is also less personable than Adam Price and Leanne Wood and has a tendency to be irascible in some responses; I am not sure he would be the most effective leader to win over the undecided.

Yes he's quite abrasive in manner sometimes from what I've seen. 

Do you think his name could be something of an issue too? I know it shouldn't matter, but might it undermine their recent efforts to position as a mainstream party across Wales, rather than being pigeonholed as a party of Welsh-speakers and Welsh-speaking areas? 

[jimjam]

Trevor, I don't use the quote option as several posters have pointed out we end up with often long posts being quoted in full when only a part is relevant.

Re your ''Since 2006 the first minister has been chosen by the largest party in the assembly. If this is a unionist party, then the deputy minister is drawn from the largest nationalist party, and vice versa.
Both ministers have equal powers, and one cannot be in office without the other. If either the first minister or the deputy first minister resigns, the other is also forced to resign, whether they want to or not"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57583168''

It is understandable that you would accept the BBC explanation but they are simply wrong to insert the unionist and nationalist references without making clear they are examples.

EDIT due to mistake by me, JJ - I have quoted from the Gleneagles (mistake is St Andrews) Agreement below directly so the Alliance can get the FM or DFM even if seems highly unlikely as 'Others' would have the most (or second most) designated MLAs.



''The Nominating Officer of the largest party in the largest designation in the
Assembly shall make a nomination to the Assembly Presiding Officer for the
post of First Minister. The Nominating Officer of the largest party in the
second largest designation in the Assembly shall similarly nominate for the
post of Deputy First Minister''

[jib]

May 11, 2023 21:21:11 GMT eor said:

May 11, 2023 7:58:16 GMT moby said:

Yes he's quite abrasive in manner sometimes from what I've seen. 

Do you think his name could be something of an issue too? I know it shouldn't matter, but might it undermine their recent efforts to position as a mainstream party across Wales, rather than being pigeonholed as a party of Welsh-speakers and Welsh-speaking areas? 

Only with the Brecon Beacons (YES) / Bannau Brycheiniog (NO) types, who are probably Tory / Reform anyway.

Plaid Cymru GE Westminster votes are in a little bit of a freefall so consolidation may be the order of the day in 2024....

2001	2005	2010	2015	2017	2019	2024
195,893	174,838	165,394	181,704	164,466	153,265	?

[eor]

May 10, 2023 17:49:21 GMT pjw1961 said:

On the Britain Elects/New Statesman 'ward by ward' analysis. Having read the article and, in particular, studied the table of 69 currently Tory constituencies, it looks like we are to some degree heading back toward pre-Brexit voting patterns, although not totally so.

For example in Thanet South (Labour target 111, but not a 'traditional' Labour seat, won only in the Blair landslides) Labour lead by 4%, but in Great Grimsby (target 114, but a traditional Labour area) Labour are 10% ahead. Likewise Labour have stonking great leads in other traditional Labour seats such as West Bromwich East (26%), Bolsover (19%), Wakefield (25%), Burnley (19%). Labour has a 9% lead in Cannock Chase - target number 275!

However, it is clear that some change is also going on. From example Labour 'won' Aldershot 41% to 35%, a seat even Blair couldn't take.

Of the 69 seats examined Con win 33 (they are not all marginals, there are many safe seats included), Labour win 24, the Lib Dems 9 and the Greens 3. 

In case you are wondering where the Green ones are: they are 35% to 35% with the Tories in Bury St Edmunds, 28% to 25% ahead in Folkestone and Hythe and 31% to 25% in Forest of Dean, so probably unlikely they would actually win any of those in a GE.

(Edit: In case anyone saw my post earlier and wonders why the seat numbers have changed I spotted some duplication in the table and have now removed it). 

The one thing they don't seem to address about the comparison is whether LE results can be shown to be a useful predictor of GE outcomes. 

I had a look at the seat I'm now in, Coventry South - as Cov elects by thirds (so one candidate per party per ward each year) and there is very little significant third party/independent voting in recent years, it avoids a lot of the data issues PJW outlined earlier.  

It's currently a very marginal Labour seat so doesn't appear in the New Statesman table but if it did it'd show Labour ahead 47% to 33%. So far so good - a very marginal seat last time ought to be a safe hold this time if Labour are heading for power. 

So I compared the recent GEs here to the most recent prior LE results;
2018 LE - LAB ahead by 7.0% 
2019 LE - LAB ahead by 8.2%
2019 GE - LAB win by 0.9%

2016 LE - LAB ahead by 6.5%
2017 GE - LAB win by 16.9%

2014 LE - LAB ahead by 7.8%
2015 GE - LAB win by 7.3%

2008 LE - CON ahead by 11.4%
2010 GE - LAB win by 8.4%

For a predictive model that is garbage. Yes this is only one seat, and maybe it's an outlier for some reasons. And obviously you'd rather be ahead than behind, whatever the metric is. But if the New Statesman are going to argue this data shows Labour are on track, surely they need to show that it's been a good predictor in the recent past?

[eor]

One other point on the LE/GE comparison - in 2010 and 2015 the local elections in Cov were held at the same time as the GE, and even then the results didn't match up brilliantly;

2010 GE in Coventry South - LAB 41.8% CON 33.4%
2010 LE in council wards making up Coventry South - LAB 37.5% CON 33.5%

2015 GE in Coventry South - LAB 42.3% CON 35.0%
2015 LE in council wards making up Coventry South - LAB 39.0% CON 35.2%

In both cases the difference between the LE and GE voting was probably enough to have changed the outcome of the GE if reflected nationally!

[moby]

May 11, 2023 17:08:23 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Looks like CCHQ are going to roll with the "Knightmare" of 'Sir Keir + Sir Ed' v 'Remain with Rishi'

Given the "seasonality" of small boat crossings then Rishi-Braverman might want to get the Rwanda scheme up and running in UK's Winter 2023-4. That is still a nice time of year in Rwanda so accommodation in Rwanda can be scaled up very quickly as soon as it becomes clear flights will start up, but hopefully the 'deterrent' aspect will kick in pretty quickly.

PS It's unclear how quickly Rwanda would process asylum claims but "turn around time" for the accommodation that UK taxpayers are paying for will hopefully be fairly short. Hence, purely for illustration then rapidly scale up to 1,000 beds (some of which could be tents) with a 2week turn around = 2,000 claims processed pcm (hence why starting up the Rwanda flights in UK's Winter in the 'off season' for the criminal gangs using small boats). Starting it up sooner would mean more tent accommodation and/or faster processing in Rwanda.  

I think the latest net migration figures emerge in a couple of weeks. From what I've heard they are likely to be very bad and Rishi's new policies haven't even turned into law yet. He's running out of time isn't he.....and then there's very stubborn food inflation.....rising borrowing costs etc....not looking good for CCHQ is it.....dear oh dear.😩

[alec]

Ukraine - confused reports (from Russia) of major Ukrainian activity, breakthroughs in various points, and great uncertainty about whether or not the counter offensive has started.

moby - that immigration poster may not age well. There are rumours that in a few days time we are about to get the highest ever figures on inbound migration, with the figure of 700,000 being touted. It may be expectation management, but record levels of immigration might undercut Tory messaging.

[alec]

The Daily Mirror asking the right question, but placing it in entirely the wrong context - www.mirror.co.uk/news/health/brits-dying-tens-thousands-dont-29955386?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Anyone familiar with the long term effects of covid doesn't have a problem understanding why the UK has so many excess deaths, and the big causes given here - heart disease and Alzheimers, are known to be triggered and worsened significantly by even 'mild' bouts of covid.

But the central question the article fails to address is the very simple point that this is happening world wide - wherever there is high covid numbers, high excess deaths follow. That very simple point means that all the discussion about the UK being obese and elderly is redundant - or at least, those factors are not the main drivers. If this was something only seen in the UK, then they may have a point, but globally excess deaths are running at 5 - 10%.

There is no mystery whatsoever here. Covid kills people, in the thousands, months after apparent recover from acute infection. We know this from the numbers, and we know this from the scans, biopsies, and cohort studies. It's very, very simple.

Meanwhile, in BC, Canada, hospitals are overrun as more covid sweeps through - www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/doctors-of-bc-er-overrun-1.6839361?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

But on the bright side, developments in air quality standards for the reduction of airborne infectious diseases -

We have all the solutions we need for this, and repeatedly getting sick isn't one of them.

[Danny]

Another morning news item saying net immigration to the Uk this year post Brexit might hit a million. Double the rate before Brexit, which was advertised to reduce immigration. Or at least, immigration is expected to be double the former trend, though that might be only 3/4 a million at the lower end of estimates.

Brexit has indeed cut net migration from the EU, but immigration from the rest of the world has soared. For all the racists who did not want foreigners over here, they have swapped white European immigrants for allsorts who presumably will be a lot more obvious.

[Danny]

R4 interviewing someone from the RMT rail union about the drivers strike. interviewer started by reminding everyone of the old British rail advertising slogan, 'let the train take the strain' and made a joke you cannot do that now. And yet the whole reason stated for privatising BR was that it was already wholly unreliable and privatisation would solve that.

The union maintain that the problem remains government, because no rail company is permitted to offer them anything unless government agrees, and it will not agree to anything likely to settle this dispute.

The central problem is that there are insufficient drivers and those there are are refusing to do overtime. However the core of the problem is that the drivers do not want to do overtime at all, and only agreed to this in the past on the expectation the company would hire enough drivers to cover the requirement. They didnt. Instead they continued to rely upon the small number of drivers doing overtime, at an agreed punitively high rate which the union had agreed because they never wanted to do it at all.

But then the companies refused to pay this very high rate any more. So the drivers went on strike.

The problem is drivers simply do not want to do very long hours, and I dont see why they would. Money isnt everything. But government plainly believes they should and has refused to sanction hiring more drivers. I guess they see it that if the drivers continue to do those long hours but at their standard hourly rate it would be much cheaper. i dare say, but why should the drivers be expected to?

[Danny]

May 11, 2023 17:08:23 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Looks like CCHQ are going to roll with the "Knightmare" of 'Sir Keir + Sir Ed' v 'Remain with Rishi'

Then I doubt they will be liking this mornings news about how much immigration has gone up under con and post brexit. And nothing at all to do with the small number of mostly legitimate refugees as defined under international law arriving here. Its legal immigrants with visas who are the immigration problem.