|
|
Post by shevii on May 12, 2023 10:47:30 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead  . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). Yes definitely stalled now and reversed a little bit I think although the local election results may be having a short term impact in terms of people saying who they voted for last week or wanting to be on the winning side/becoming shy Tories. 4 with their Labour lead higher and one (R&W) looking like an outlier. |
|
|
|
Post by James E on May 12, 2023 10:51:38 GMT
I posted this a week ago, but here are the comparative figures for the LibDems' Local Election vote shares since 2017 (per BBC NEV) compared to their performance in the 6 preceding GB Westminster polls - updated the reflect the 2023 figures. 2023 20% in Local Elections v 11% in GE polls (+9) 2022 19% in Local Elections v 11% in GE polls(+8) 2021 17% in Local Elections v 8% in GE polls (+9) 2019 19% in Local Elections v 9% in GE polls(+10) 2018 16% in Local Elections v 8% in GE polls (+8) 2017 18% in Local Elections v 7% in GE polls (+11) The polls have generally predicted the LDs' vote share accurately for previous General Elections, so there is no reason to think that the customary LD overperformance in the Local Elections is a pointer for the next General Election. EDIT: To add the words of our former host on UKPR1 : "As you can see, the contrast between what the Liberal Democrats manage in general election voting intention polls and what the Liberal Democrats achieve in local elections is not new - it has been consistent for the last twenty years." (Anthony Wells - writing in 2012) pollingreport.uk/articles/lib-dem-support-at-local-elections |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 11:01:08 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). I joined an unaccustomed queue this morning. Our village surgeries dispensary is short of staff and has cut opening times by 2 hours per day. Also they can't source some drugs at present. Mutterings amongst the small band about the country being in a mess were spread across what I judge to be the political spectrum. Small anecdote-but I really think Revival & Tory are not likely to be juxtapositional before the next GE. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2023 11:02:16 GMT
Looking at the poll of polls,www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/if you take the period from the date Truss took office to now, the shift is LAB 42-44, Con 31-28 (SNP are down 2% and LD 1%). Lab's lead peaked at 20% in Oct, but it is largely thought that was driven by Tory VI shifting to DK/WNV. Overtime, it looks like what we are actually seeing is a more gradual increase in Lab's lead, which the Truss debacle has strengthened. In addition, the Tories have probably taken a permanent hit to their economic competence, and many voters are aware that the position Truss took and that that wing of the party she represents is still very much present and influential in the party. This acts as a major constraint on Sunak's ability to claw back support for his party. Also, with inflation set to fall less than anticipated and the full impact of interest rate rises yet to hit, its hard to see Tory ratings on the economy improving dramatically this year.
The dual whammy of Truss and the actual impact of Brexit on UK's economic performance (the latter the truth virtually everyone is starting to recognise) on voters perception of Tory economic competence, I think will be the underlying factor leading to what is increasingly looking like a likely Tory GE defeat.
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 11:11:25 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). Yes definitely stalled now and reversed a little bit I think although the local election results may be having a short term impact in terms of people saying who they voted for last week or wanting to be on the winning side/becoming shy Tories. 4 with their Labour lead higher and one (R&W) looking like an outlier. BMG also showed a narrowing but it is certainly fair to say "stalled (for) now" with a slight "reversed a little bit" and the wiki graphic shows that: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_resultsShould get Omnisis later but they are pretty erratic and showed a 3% move from LD->LDEM last week to place LD on 7%. TBC but I wouldn't be surprised if that reverse a bit given Omnisis possibly at the limit of MoE last week. Should also get a new YG, although sometimes their polling info is delayed. With a GE still likely 18mths away then "it's all to play for"  |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 11:11:33 GMT
Techne, confirms other poll movements in the last couple of weeks Apologies just noticed James E beat me to it by some time |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 11:25:31 GMT
Finally a Brexit benefit...
|
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 11:30:53 GMT
jimjam Relating to the discussion on mortgages, then I thought LAB had shifted to target 'Stevenage Woman' rather than 'Middle Aged Mortgage Man' but as noted earlier then blaming CON HMG now for stuff that isn't really under CON HMG's control (ie inflation and BoE's rate hikes) does perhaps lack the 'Bruce Foresight' powers of what is very likely to be happening in 2024. Amongst the major players then FED have hiked the most, ECB a bit behind the curve and likely to hike further, BoE probably done. I appreciate a lot of people perhaps aren't aware of the "global" issues and blame their own govt for a lot of stuff that is "global" (folks can check approval rating for Biden, or how SPD are doing in Germany, etc if they want to). However, when the tide turns then I'd be 99.9% sure that CCHQ will take credit for stuff that LAB are currently blaming them for with their new line of attack. I covered interest rates and food commodity prices earlier but another major expense for a lot of people is their gas/electricity bill. UK 'lags' the change in other countries due to the EPG but wholesale gas/electricity prices have come down and that will feed into customer bills from July:
|
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on May 12, 2023 11:47:34 GMT
Techne, confirms other poll movements in the last couple of weeks Apologies just noticed James E beat me to it by some time The Adventure of the Disappearing Pollster (after A. C. Doyle). People Polling which had been producing weekly polls for GB News since last August has not published any polls since Week 13 (31st March). So the question is: have GB News stopped commissioning polling from them (or anyone else) or have People Polling gone bust? They were always distant outliers in the VI polling and this may have suited GB News' agenda, but the continuing silence is unusual. peoplepolling.org/polls/ |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on May 12, 2023 11:55:27 GMT
Finally a Brexit benefit...
The role of arsenic in the body isn't well understood. Most adults probably eat about 12-50 mcg of arsenic every day from a usual diet. Some experts have suggested that an average adult should have 12-25 mcg daily.I suspect this story is on a level with worrying about radioactivity from eating bananas. EDIT Also see: www.campdenbri.co.uk/blogs/arsenic-complying-new-limits.php (2017) and food.ec.europa.eu/safety/chemical-safety/contaminants/catalogue/arsenic_enI think that the EU are now satisfied that it is possible to distinguish between organic and inorganic arsenic at the levels that their new limits on inorganic arsenic imply (not that I expect the FT journalists to understand this). Of course it also probably means that the EU can ban imports of rice from SE Asia, where the pollution of groundwater with inorganic arsenic is a serious problem. |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on May 12, 2023 11:57:02 GMT
That title seems a little bit clickbait-y for me (disappointing from the Indy). Are the supermarket bosses actually saying that there will be deflation in food prices in the near future, or are they saying, as I strongly suspect, that the rate of inflation over the next x period, from where food prices are now will be less, possibly much less? Take, for example, a loaf of bread that a year ago was £1, that is £1.20 now. While I would certainly welcome it, I really can't see it costing £1.10 or £1.15 a year from now. I would expect that if the rate of (food) inflation is reduced, the rise would be less steep, to, say £1.25. This is also where the government relying on a future lower inflation rate re-striking workers falls down. Even if the headline inflation rate is lower, that is lower inflation on top of the 10+% inflation - and almost double that in terms of food inflation - that we have already seen, not instead of it. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 12:10:33 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). Yes definitely stalled now and reversed a little bit I think although the local election results may be having a short term impact in terms of people saying who they voted for last week or wanting to be on the winning side/becoming shy Tories. 4 with their Labour lead higher and one (R&W) looking like an outlier. Looking at the full list of poll results for this parliament on Wikipedia, I think the problem with the R&W was the "Lib Dem 16%". This is a genuine outlier - no other poll since 2019 has had the LDs on more than 13%, and the other recent ones range between 9-12%. This hit the Labour percentage in particular and so the Lab/Con lead. I wouldn't be surprised to see that reverse in R&W's next one. |
|
Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
|
Post by Mr Poppy on May 12, 2023 12:12:52 GMT
That title seems a little bit clickbait-y for me (disappointing from the Indy). Are the supermarket bosses actually saying that there will be deflation in food prices in the near future, or are they saying, as I strongly suspect, that the rate of inflation over the next x period, from where food prices are now will be less, possibly much less? Take, for example, a loaf of bread that a year ago was £1, that is £1.20 now. While I would certainly welcome it, I really can't see it costing £1.10 or £1.15 a year from now. I would expect that if the rate of (food) inflation is reduced, the rise would be less steep, to, say £1.25. This is also where the government relying on a future lower inflation rate re-striking workers falls down. Even if the headline inflation rate is lower, that is lower inflation on top of the 10+% inflation - and almost double that in terms of food inflation - that we have already seen, not instead of it. All headlines are a "little bit clickbait-y" (eg some stuff about bendy bananas, etc) so instead of headline I'll quote the Groan's 'maths' on price of bread: "The UK’s second-largest supermarket chain said it had lowered the price of its soft white medium, wholemeal medium, wholemeal thick, and toastie white loaves of bread to 75p, which is a reduction of 11%"www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/09/sainsburys-cuts-prices-bread-butter-food-inflationI posted the chart for the 'wholesale' price of wheat and energy costs will start coming down soon as well, however, labour costs have gone up so it's all not all "reductions". A lot of the 'one-off' bonuses paid by the private sector will fall away next year so companies won't need to pass those on through prices in the same way they probably did this year - hence labour costs in some sectors might actually drop next year due to the removal of "one-off bonuses". I'm not sure where you shop but you might be pleasantly surprised when you buy your next loaf of bread. WRT to strikes then as discussed before then CON HMG are playing a 'waiting game' for inflation to drop. However, next year, when I (along with pretty much everyone else including BoE, OBR, etc) expect inflation will be 1%ish, possibly -ve, then workers will very likely get a decent "real wage" pay rise (eg 3% when inflation is 1%). I dunno but my hunch would be that CON HMG will then claim they successfully lowered inflation which then led them to be able to give "real term pay rises" (next year) with mortgage costs dropping for "hard working families", etc. NB All depends on 'events' of course but for stuff like bread then there is a lag between lower wholesale wheat prices and lower price of bread in supermarket. I don't have a crystal ball but the large drop in commodity prices over the last 6mths-1yr will filter through to supermarket in the coming months - looks like Sainsbury's have started cutting prices already, perhaps others have as well? |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 12:23:17 GMT
From a Telegraph and Spectator commentator
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 12:45:49 GMT
I'm fine with uninteresting polls that have Labour 17% ahead . It is more evidence that the slight Tory revival in April has stalled (for the moment at least). I joined an unaccustomed queue this morning. Our village surgeries dispensary is short of staff and has cut opening times by 2 hours per day. Also they can't source some drugs at present. Mutterings amongst the small band about the country being in a mess were spread across what I judge to be the political spectrum. Small anecdote-but I really think Revival & Tory are not likely to be juxtapositional before the next GE. The Nuffield Trust reckon that over 10% of the population* are on an NHS waiting list for something. That means the majority of people will know someone in that unhappy situation. *(not sure whether they mean England, Britain or UK) |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 12, 2023 12:53:51 GMT
From a Telegraph and Spectator commentator It is a remarkable state of affairs when a Labour leader knows he is safe to go on the attack over immigration numbers: "Asked about the reports, Keir Starmer told broadcasters the government had “lost control” of immigration. 'I think we need to wait and see what those figures are, but I’ve seen that speculation. I think if we’re anywhere near that figure then it will show the government has completely lost control. We need a managed approach and we haven’t got that. Like almost everything else under this government, there’s no plan, there’s no control and, just like everything else, it seems like the system is broken.'" This is ultimately the fault of the Cameron/Osborne/Clegg austerity - the capacity of the state to do anything effectively has been wrecked. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 13:06:56 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 12, 2023 13:11:24 GMT
From a Telegraph and Spectator commentator It is a remarkable state of affairs when a Labour leader knows he is safe to go on the attack over immigration numbers: "Asked about the reports, Keir Starmer told broadcasters the government had “lost control” of immigration. 'I think we need to wait and see what those figures are, but I’ve seen that speculation. I think if we’re anywhere near that figure then it will show the government has completely lost control. We need a managed approach and we haven’t got that. Like almost everything else under this government, there’s no plan, there’s no control and, just like everything else, it seems like the system is broken.'" This is ultimately the fault of the Cameron/Osborne/Clegg austerity - the capacity of the state to do anything effectively has been wrecked. , and them to compound the problem, they continue to insist on introducing ill-thought out legislation designed to cater to their own base, and/or from which they seek a political alliance. The result being chaos. |
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on May 12, 2023 13:58:35 GMT
That title seems a little bit clickbait-y for me (disappointing from the Indy). The Indy does seem to have a habit of clickbait-y titles these days (the following all from today) UK government decides to keep EU ‘bendy bananas’ regulation despite Brexit - no s**t Sherlock Disturbing research warns AI may be ‘Great Filter’ that wipes out human civilisation - preprint, yet to be peer-reviewed Martin Lewis issues warning to everyone who claims a pension: ‘An absolute tragedy’ - only affects pensioners entitled to claim pension credit who have not done so I am nearly on the point of giving up reading The Independent online because the quality of their journalism has plummeted. The i newspaper which began as a tabloid version of The Independent but is overall much better. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 14:15:21 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on May 12, 2023 14:33:50 GMT
Yes definitely stalled now and reversed a little bit I think although the local election results may be having a short term impact in terms of people saying who they voted for last week or wanting to be on the winning side/becoming shy Tories. 4 with their Labour lead higher and one (R&W) looking like an outlier. Looking at the full list of poll results for this parliament on Wikipedia, I think the problem with the R&W was the "Lib Dem 16%". This is a genuine outlier - no other poll since 2019 has had the LDs on more than 13%, and the other recent ones range between 9-12%. This hit the Labour percentage in particular and so the Lab/Con lead. I wouldn't be surprised to see that reverse in R&W's next one. My updated polling archive ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/78050/thread now has a graph showing changes in Con and Lab VI averaged over three-month periods for the most frequent pollsters. While the average Labour VI has fallen by around 5% in April from the Jan-Mar average, not much of it has gone over to the Tories. The principal change has been that the formerly "Red" (high Labour lead - R&W, Techne and YouGov) pollsters are now clustering quite close to the "Amber" (moderate Labour lead - Deltapoll, Opinium and SavantaComRes) pollsters. The Wikipedia page by combining all pollsters' results doesn't make this so obvious. Yes the LibDems at 16% looks like an outlier (like the 7% from Omnisis), but probably 11-12% would be expected. I don't think we are going to see the average falling below 10% at present. The LibDem VI is so dependent on the level of publicity they get (which is always more at election time) that it is not surprising we are seeing a bounce now. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on May 12, 2023 14:36:58 GMT
neilj Let's be honest the abject reality of Brexit is by far the biggest anti Brexit propaganda coup. 
|
|
|
|
Post by leftieliberal on May 12, 2023 14:38:03 GMT
An embarrassing discovery for electoral officers in North Lincolnshire: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-65570851This is one of those situations where the result of the election should be set aside and a judge-ordered recount undertaken. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 14:47:47 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by graham on May 12, 2023 14:53:18 GMT
I have made myself feel quite unwell over the last 48 hours. It is entirely my own fault , and oddly enough arises from my being blessed - or cursed - with a very good memory.
I shall be 69 in early July , and have calculated that my current age - 68 years and 10 months - was the normal male life expectancy in the UK in Feb/March 1974. I was then in the latter part of my first year at University and it coincided with the General Election called by Ted Heath for 28th February that year. I have just watched some 18 hours of the BBC Election Results programme. At one level I should enjoy this , but I keep being faced with the reality that - David Dimbleby excepted - every person appearing on the screen is now deceased. That applies to the politicians - the broadcasters and the journalists giving commentaries and analysis. It really has tipped me into quite a deep depression - and have had to seek Diazepam support.
On the second day the declaration at Finchley was included as a 49 year old Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. It struck me that this was less than a year before she became the Tory leader in February 1975 - though there was no suggestion at all on the programme of that being a likely prospect despite some questions being raised as to Heath's long term survival as leader. I somehow just cannot accept that these events - the February 74 election and Thatcher's ascent to the Leadership less than a year later - are more than 'just a few years ago.'
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 14:53:48 GMT
Omnisus, wow
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,389
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on May 12, 2023 14:56:35 GMT
Sunak v Starmer
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 12, 2023 15:01:50 GMT
I have made myself feel quite unwell over the last 48 hours. It is entirely my own fault , and oddly enough arises from my being blessed - or cursed - with a very good memory. I shall be 69 in early July , and have calculated that my current age - 68 years and 10 months - was the normal male life expectancy in the UK in Feb/March 1974. I was then in the latter part of my first year at University and it coincided with the General Election called by Ted Heath for 28th February that year. I have just watched some 18 hours of the BBC Election Results programme. At one level I should enjoy this , but I keep being faced with the reality that - David Dimbleby excepted - every person appearing on the screen is now deceased. That applies to the politicians - the broadcasters and the journalists giving commentaries and analysis. It really has tipped me into quite a deep depression - and have had to seek Diazepam support. On the second day the declaration at Finchley was included as a 49 year old Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. It struck me that this was less than a year before she became the Tory leader in February 1975 - though there was no suggestion at all on the programme of that being a likely prospect despite some questions being raised as to Heath's long term survival as leader. I somehow just cannot accept that these events - the February 74 election and Thatcher's ascent to the Leadership less than a year later - are more than 'just a few years ago.' Its called Old Age graham Get over it. And think yourself lucky-you are young enough to have the prospect of life under another Conservative Government ! What chance have I got ?  |
|
|
|
Post by graham on May 12, 2023 15:09:21 GMT
I have made myself feel quite unwell over the last 48 hours. It is entirely my own fault , and oddly enough arises from my being blessed - or cursed - with a very good memory. I shall be 69 in early July , and have calculated that my current age - 68 years and 10 months - was the normal male life expectancy in the UK in Feb/March 1974. I was then in the latter part of my first year at University and it coincided with the General Election called by Ted Heath for 28th February that year. I have just watched some 18 hours of the BBC Election Results programme. At one level I should enjoy this , but I keep being faced with the reality that - David Dimbleby excepted - every person appearing on the screen is now deceased. That applies to the politicians - the broadcasters and the journalists giving commentaries and analysis. It really has tipped me into quite a deep depression - and have had to seek Diazepam support. On the second day the declaration at Finchley was included as a 49 year old Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. It struck me that this was less than a year before she became the Tory leader in February 1975 - though there was no suggestion at all on the programme of that being a likely prospect despite some questions being raised as to Heath's long term survival as leader. I somehow just cannot accept that these events - the February 74 election and Thatcher's ascent to the Leadership less than a year later - are more than 'just a few years ago.' Its called Old Age graham Get over it. And think yourself lucky-you are young enough to have the prospect of life under another Conservative Government ! What chance have I got ? A Conservative Government headed by Keir Starmer perhaps! Seriously though, I just can't 'get over it.' The closest I get to doing so is by taking myself back 49 years and 2 months to March 1974 - and then repeat that exercise from that date. That takes us back to the beginning of 1925 - and I am able to accept that such a date did seem very distant by early 1974 in that my parents were not born until the late 1920s.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on May 12, 2023 15:11:31 GMT
"Its called Old Age graham Get over it." I see our colin has rediscovered his sensitive side. He should think of a second career as a therapist. |
|
.
