24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 14:01:09 GMT neilj said:

@mark
Agree
For me the biggest obstacle to tory party success is tory party members. Most are far more socially Conservative and to the right of most tory party voters, let alone swing voters.
Just as Starmer did with momentum and Kinnock with Militant Sundk needs to stand upto them. If not Sunak then the next leader
People's attitudes have changed, pandering to a 100,000 or do members will not make the tories electable for the country as a while

Surely Sunak is classed as a leaver, and a very rich one to boot. Why would he want to move con to the left? He must know that after the next election con are most likely to lose and he will be out of a job. Replaced by someone else as leader (penny Mordaunt once again in the news for her sword carrying abilities).

[crossbat11]

Off to Seahouses on the bus soon to go on a boat trip to the nearby Farne Islands. I've never seen a Puffin before.

One final thought before I set sail. It concerns Trump and his most recent travails. Or maybe, in deference to his many Tory chums, some on this very forum indeed, I ought to refer to him as "The Donald ".

My thought deals with the question of why this latest, and proven, allegation if sexual assault against him is unlikely to dent his support amongst his cult followers. They will likely follow him to the ends of the world.

I think there are two reasons for this blind loyalty. Firstly he is the arch-baiter of liberals and that always wins friends on the right. He goes into bat for them on all things woke. Therefore he can do no wrong. You see some of this in British and European right wing politics. The championing of liberal baiters, however disreputable they may be. If the left hate Trump, he must be doing something right.

Secondly, and more intriguingly, there is probably something far more psychological going on. A common human trait too that is not exclusive to right wing politics. The triumph of pride over intellect. To go into denial in the face of unpalatable facts.

Better to navigate intellectual dead ends and logical contortions than to admit one was wrong about something or someone.

A very powerful force in populism of all sorts. The ability to convince oneself black is white.

Adieu.

[jimjam]

James E/CB,

Same in Darlington in the straightforward swing wards, Tory total votes holding up but Labour much higher.

Reckon stay at home Lab leaners from 2019 more engaged to come out.

Posters may recall that I picked this up in the last 2 week prior to polling day reporting on here that previous undecideds were breaking decisively for Labour.

This imo produced the extra 2-3% swing where it mattered as the GTVO operation focused.

NB) I think the impact of social media on voting has waned as more voters (many subconsciously perhaps) became sceptical of on line claims.

Evidence from Darlington is that old fashioned data gathering and focused reminders regained much of its former primacy for campaigning.

[Mr Poppy]

Vince Cable's piece. The last para is somewhat naive (shocker) but good luck keeping "secret" talks a secret. IIRC then people can claim something is still a secret is you only tell one person at a time 

Lib Dems could back Labour for electoral reform
commentcentral.co.uk/lib-dems-could-back-labour-for-electoral-reform

Of more interest is the conversation post GE results when maybe LDEM's get the choice to either back putting Starmer in #10 or keep Rishi in #10 (until a 2nd GE is required to resolve the mess). A possible quick fire discussion.

Davey (to Starmer): "We'll prop you up with a C&S deal if you promise electoral reform"
Starmer: "I'm long opposed to PR, so sorry, but NO DEAL"

Davey: "OK, how about some 'red briefcases' and higher pay for some LDEM MPs instead"
Starmer: "NO DEAL. Back me or let Rishi stay in #10"

Davey: "OK, we'll back you but can you at least say we had some input towards some of your policies (similar to the deal PC have with WLAB)"
Starmer: "DEAL"
(Starmer-LAB can certainly give LDEM credit for some policies and ensure LDEM are "involved" (eg send Davey to Paris to ask for a "returns" policy on illegal immigration) with the 'Brucie Bonus' of being able to also give some blame for why Starmer-LAB can't do "Left" policies - offering a more "Left" agenda if voters give LAB an OM in the next GE) 

PS It appears the Sun has already heard about Sir Vince's "secret talks" and putting their spin on it:
KNIGHTS AROUND TABLE Sir Keir Starmer & Sir Ed Davey will hold ‘serious’ talks to plot path to No10 coalition
www.thesun.co.uk/news/22319371/starmer-davey-secret-talks-no10-coalition/

The "Knightmare Pact" is a useful distraction from Real World stuff for CON and RoC press to bang about between now and then but the quick fire discussion I showed above shows the risk for LDEM's if they start saying they will get Electoral Reform in return for backing Starmer-LAB and then Starmer says "NO DEAL". Of course as a serial liar then Starmer might say DEAL which would probably mean LAB will never again win an OM and might even see their party split (as quite clearly the LW and RW of LAB don't get on with each other but side has to "tolerate" the other due to FPTP)

[neilj]

Will Badenoch and Braverman, the darlings if the Brexit fundamentalists push back or risk being seen as 'sell outs' 🤔

Love it

[Mr Poppy]

May 11, 2023 8:22:48 GMT jimjam said:

James E/CB,

Same in Darlington in the straightforward swing wards, Tory total votes holding up but Labour much higher.

Reckon stay at home Lab leaners from 2019 more engaged to come out.

Posters may recall that I picked this up in the last 2 week prior to polling day reporting on here that previous undecideds were breaking decisively for Labour.

This imo produced the extra 2-3% swing where it mattered as the GTVO operation focused.

NB) I think the impact of social media on voting has waned as more voters (many subconsciously perhaps) became sceptical of on line claims.

Evidence from Darlington is that old fashioned data gathering and focused reminders regained much of its former primacy for campaigning.

Below covers some areas that LAB took back with "a paltry turnout of 16%" - maybe a lack of LAB door knockers in some areas? #StarmerEffect?

Labour take note: red-wall voters want an ambitious plan for renewal – not tough talk and flag waving
theconversation.com/labour-take-note-red-wall-voters-want-an-ambitious-plan-for-renewal-not-tough-talk-and-flag-waving-205061

[somerjohn]

James E: "The reason was mostly the decline of UKIP who were taking around 14% in GB polls in early May 2019."

It does indeed seem very plausible that Con picked up most of the disappearing UKIP votes, with a chunk also going to DNV. That would have had the effect of diminishing the impact of Con voters shifting to other parties, explaining why the Con vote share ended up down by only 5% or so.

But it does the raise the question of whether some of that cushioning will disappear at the GE. Unlike UKIP the last time round, Refuk stood few candidates and did little or no effective campaigning in the locals. But in the GE they will stand 100s of candidates, and probably won't renew their stand-down in favour of brexity tories. They will campaign nationally and while I don't suppose they will get close to the top end of current polling VI, I think somewhere around 5% is a reasonable expectation. Most of that will be at the expense of Tories. And the more Sunak focuses on immigration, woke issues etc, the more fertile he will make the ground that Refuk is tilling. They could end up reaping the electoral benefit of what he sows.

All of that will become far more significant if Farage re-emerges as Refuk leader, or at least prime campaigner. Which I think he will, once he decides the election is lost to the tories and that there are likely to be rich post-election pickings to be had in the atmosphere of bitter recrimination and feuding in the tory camp. Maybe even breakup.

[Dave]

May 11, 2023 7:46:30 GMT moby said:

Onto more serious matters......really looking forward to the second semi finals of Eurovision tonight ...

... and there was me thinking you were about to enthuse about West Ham and tonight's semi-final of the Europa Conference League, where the mighty irons go into battle against the Dutch.  Coyi as we say.   (P.S. please let me know when bloody Eurovision is over so I know it's safe to turn on the telly - sorry Moby, Lululemon, etc  ). 

[alec]

Danny - "Where is this stated?"

Here's an idea for you Danny - do some f*****g research.

Perhaps you might also consider that Army doctors also have knowledge of infectious disease levels too.

"Once army doctors complete their specialist training, GPs serve as regimental medical officers caring for soldiers and their families in military practices in the United Kingdom, Germany, Cyprus, and Brunei. Many accompany their regiments on tours of duty for up to six months every two to three years.

As in other forces, hospital consultants work in NHS hospitals."

From - www.bmj.com/content/340/bmj.b5437

[steve]

crossbat11

You won't need porcine metaphors after the election as the Tories will be off on their trotters.

[somerjohn]

I see Kemi Badenoch has said over 1,000 pieces of EU-derived legislation have already been revoked.

I wonder if any posters could name (without googling) a single one of these, or identify any associated benefit.

Of course, that revelation was rather overshadowed by the Speaker's fury at Badenoch's insolent response to his rebuke for her using the Telegraph rather than the Commons chamber to make the announcement:

Who do you think you are speaking to, secretary of state?

[leftieliberal]

May 11, 2023 8:21:40 GMT crossbat11 said:

Off to Seahouses on the bus soon to go on a boat trip to the nearby Farne Islands. I've never seen a Puffin before.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-65385813

The Farne Islands have been shut to visitors after a bird flu outbreak for a second year at the seabirds' colony.

Last year, 6,000 birds were found dead by rangers at the islands, home to colonies of rare species, including puffins and Arctic tern.

The islands will remain closed to the public until the end of the breeding season at the end of August.


But you will be able to see them from a distance.

[neilj]

Guido Fawkes turns against Sunak

[neilj]

Guido Fawkes turns against Badenoch

[neilj]

Confirms the Telegraph were lying or someone one lied to them when they blamed the 'blob'

[neilj]

The Speaker criticises Badenoch, wow, don't think I've ever seen him so upset

[Mr Poppy]

🤦 from 7/9ths of BoE* IMO but in other recent news some findings from YG:

and on Police handling of "He is our King" and folks being able to enjoy the coronation event:

* May'23 MPR where they acknowledge "that growth over much of the forecast period will be materially stronger than in the February Report" (slow hand clap as they slowly correct their defeatist view) but then use that to justify hiking rates despite their own forecast showing inflation will drop to 1.1% in 2Q25 (ie 2yrs time) - although they conveniently leave the 2yr point off their graph for inflation and hence 🤦.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2023/may-2023

[steve]

Well done to Krishnan and the Channel four news team calling out government bull shit and fact checking on air in real time, exceptionally rare from our compliant media.
No wonder the regime tried to close them down.

youtu.be/y0IutsWLWKA

[John Chanin]

As I have said before (although probably not here), Badenoch is a very smart cookie, and worthy of respect for taking the business of governing seriously, while still keeping an eye on her reputation.

[johntel]

The UK is taking a big risk in sending long-range missiles to Ukraine and allowing them to be used against targets in Crimea. Let's hope it doesn't lead to disaster.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070

[hireton]

Interesting to see who major figures in the Tory Party are prepared to share a platform with:

www.bylinesupplement.com/p/rishi-sunak-defends-suella-bravermans

[hireton]

New Savanta poll of Westminster VI:..

[Mark]

One thought re-Trump.

I wouldn't want him in the White House with the Ukraine war going on.

A man who, reportedly, when first becoming president was given a standard briefing on military/geopolitical situations around the globe and during this 45 minute biefing asked - on 3 separate occasions "why can't we use nuclear weapons?".

Usually, I'm against negative campaigning (including Starmer's recent ads), but, on this occasion, maybe an updated "Daisy" ad is called for....

[neilj]

May 11, 2023 13:38:54 GMT hireton said:

New Savanta poll of Westminster VI:..

That's over two weeks I think with all polls, except RedfieldWilton, showing an increased Labour lead?

[hireton]

Official Scottish Labour spokesperson tweets:

Hubris?

[pjw1961]

May 11, 2023 12:24:15 GMT John Chanin said:

As I have said before (although probably not here), Badenoch is a very smart cookie, and worthy of respect for taking the business of governing seriously, while still keeping an eye on her reputation.

Well, perhaps, but there was a general consensus today that Badenoch was rude, condescending, arrogant and aggressive in the house, not just to the speaker and opposition MPs, but to her own back-benchers. Her basic line was that everyone else was too dim to understand what she was doing.

The likely post-election Tory leadership campaign between Badenoch and Braverman would to a vicious bloodbath, with them trying to out compete each other on how right wing they can be and how far they can disappear down an anti-woke rabbit hole. 

[pjw1961]

May 10, 2023 22:52:19 GMT graham said:

May 10, 2023 21:54:26 GMT pjw1961 said:

Just returning to the 'ward by ward' analyses from New Statesman I discovered that while all the individual seat information I gave was correct, the totals are not right (the mysterious duplicates had replaced some seats). The corrected figure is 84 Conservative parliamentary seats analysed - 44 Con leads (mostly very safe seats), 27 Labour leads, 10 Lib Dem leads, 3 Green leads.

Some that might interest a few of our regular contributors include:

Norwich North: Lab 42%, Con 30%, Green 18%, LD 10%
Hemel Hempstead (covers a lot of Dacorum DC): Con 36%, LD 33%, Lab 22%, Green 3%
Braintree: Con 36%, Lab 23%, Green 17%, LD 3%
Bournemouth East: Lab 25%, Con 24%, LD 18%, Green 16%
Bournemouth West: LD 34%, Con 27%, Lab 16%, Green 14%

And if Andrew Bridgen fancies a by-election it would be interesting!
North West Leicestershire: Con 41% Lab 38%, LD 13%, Green 2%

Re - North west Leicestershire - Not a particularly bad outcome for the Tories given that the seat was Labour-held 1997 - 2010.

There were bright spots from a Tory angle. For example they outpolled Labour in Keighley, a traditional marginal, by 42% to 41%. 

[Mr Poppy]

Massive lead for Remain in latest YG:

but as per 'Most Important Issues' findings then most folks are not interested in Eurovision:

?

[hireton]

The right wing culture war having one of its intended effect:

www.thenational.scot/news/23515797.uk-plummets-table-safe-lgbt-countries-hate-crime-rises/?ref=twtrec

[lululemonmustdobetter]

May 11, 2023 9:02:56 GMT Dave said:

May 11, 2023 7:46:30 GMT moby said:

Onto more serious matters......really looking forward to the second semi finals of Eurovision tonight ...

... and there was me thinking you were about to enthuse about West Ham and tonight's semi-final of the Europa Conference League, where the mighty irons go into battle against the Dutch.  Coyi as we say.   (P.S. please let me know when bloody Eurovision is over so I know it's safe to turn on the telly - sorry Moby, Lululemon, etc  ). 

Hi Dave, you will be glad to know that tonight BT Sport will definitely be on our TV (half the family will be at the match).

COYI!