24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[lululemonmustdobetter]

In terms of the likelihood of a Labour OM, its worth noting that since 1906, there are only a couple of instances where a party won the popular vote by a margin 6-7% and didn't get an OM (1923 and 2010). In all probability a % lead of 7< virtually guarantees a Labour OM and lead of 10< is landslide territory. The locals and polls indicate we are are currently somewhere between these two. This does not mean a Tory revival is impossible, or that the Tories are doomed to oblivion (they have proven themselves to be the most resilient and adaptable political party in history) - its just a revival is currently looking unlikely.

One of the elements of the locals is psychological and demoralising for the Tories - Sunak is now seen as a 'loser' by voters and elements of his own party. While you can debate if Labour are doing well enough to win an OM or not, they are clearly on the up. The results were undeniably bad for the Tories. Sunak and Hunt are putting their eggs in the 'economic stability' basket - however risk the same fate as Major did. Starmer could be as woeful as May at campaigning - but I don't get the sense that Sunak could pull of a campaign like Corbyn did in '17 and rally a Tory VI surge.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

So what do people think is the minimum likely Tory recovery before the GE and does that still likely deliver an OM for Labour?

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 16:07:03 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 9, 2023 15:31:30 GMT alurqa said:

You can't trade if you don't talk to people. And to do that effectively we need to go over there, and they need to come over here; much easier when they are only 35km away. The brexiters want the former but not the latter.

This was the subject of some debate on the old board, the issue of gravity: that trade is easier when with countries sited closer to us. I confess I’m not sure about it myself, but there are some ways technology might help. For example we are handy at digital services which don’t necessarily suffer as much gravity, and also the potential for AI to do things like real-time translation which might mean you need less presence overseas. And it depends in part on how much our companies can shift to selling stuff that suits that trade zone more, is more niche etc.

  

I worked for a global IT company for 20 years. The thing I always remember being struck by, when I first joined, was the number of business people. Half of the staff weren't techies! I found that amazing, but over the years I began to see how important the business side was -- no sales no work for the techies. Yes, that's obvious, but sometimes the obvious isn't noticed.

There were all sorts of people, those supporting existing customers, those marketing bods creating the image we needed to present, the sales guys out in the field, and, a group that is probably underestimated, the business development folks. They were not really sales people, but they understood how a customer worked and would construct solutions that would work with a particular customer's needs. They'd often work at the customer site for years, as part of a team building up a relationship to help promote our latest and greatest offerings. Sometimes a customer would bite, sometimes not. It was all intelligence to report back to our command and control centre. :-)

One general example. This was the period when outsourcing was all the rage. Hey Mr customer, we are the IT specialists, you just want to server your customers, so let is handle your IT and you can get on doing what you do best, whatever industry that happened to be (banking, insurance, retail, travel, etc). So they would issue a request for proposal (RFP), where they would say what they wanted any IT service provider to do. Well guess what, the business development guys would be there at the start, helping to shape the RFP to 'make sure they got the best proposal together.' Naturally our company would be ideally suited to servicing their needs.

The point I'm making is you can't do all this remotely. You can't say look at our website or here are some ideas I've emailed over. You have to be in the room, day after day. Relationship is the most important word in business. A good relationship generates sales. And a relationship means face-to-face contacts.

Yes you could fly someone half way round the world to do this, but the culture needs to match, or at least be understood. Technology does help, but is is secondary.

[shevii]

Andrew Bridgen to join Reclaim tomorrow apparently. One can only assume Reform were too woke for him and Laurence Fox just about right!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 9, 2023 19:57:23 GMT alurqa said:

May 9, 2023 16:07:03 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

This was the subject of some debate on the old board, the issue of gravity: that trade is easier when with countries sited closer to us. I confess I’m not sure about it myself, but there are some ways technology might help. For example we are handy at digital services which don’t necessarily suffer as much gravity, and also the potential for AI to do things like real-time translation which might mean you need less presence overseas. And it depends in part on how much our companies can shift to selling stuff that suits that trade zone more, is more niche etc.

  

I worked for a global IT company for 20 years. The thing I always remember being struck by, when I first joined, was the number of business people. Half of the staff weren't techies! I found that amazing, but over the years I began to see how important the business side was -- no sales no work for the techies. Yes, that's obvious, but sometimes the obvious isn't noticed.

There were all sorts of people, those supporting existing customers, those marketing bods creating the image we needed to present, the sales guys out in the field, and, a group that is probably underestimated, the business development folks. They were not really sales people, but they understood how a customer worked and would construct solutions that would work with a particular customer's needs. They'd often work at the customer site for years, as part of a team building up a relationship to help promote our latest and greatest offerings. Sometimes a customer would bite, sometimes not. It was all intelligence to report back to our command and control centre. :-)

One general example. This was the period when outsourcing was all the rage. Hey Mr customer, we are the IT specialists, you just want to server your customers, so let is handle your IT and you can get on doing what you do best, whatever industry that happened to be (banking, insurance, retail, travel, etc). So they would issue a request for proposal (RFP), where they would say what they wanted any IT service provider to do. Well guess what, the business development guys would be there at the start, helping to shape the RFP to 'make sure they got the best proposal together.' Naturally our company would be ideally suited to servicing their needs.

The point I'm making is you can't do all this remotely. You can't say look at our website or here are some ideas I've emailed over. You have to be in the room, day after day. Relationship is the most important word in business. A good relationship generates sales. And a relationship means face-to-face contacts.

Yes you could fly someone half way round the world to do this, but the culture needs to match, or at least be understood. Technology does help, but is is secondary.

Well, it depends on the product. Some are rather more sensitive to gravity than others. Some things require a lot more of a local presence than others. Things which might require local negotiation as you point out, obviously are likely to. 

But to use an example I gave on the old board, if you wanted to sell music in other countries, used to be you tended to need distribution deals in different countries etc., whereas nowadays you can sell it internationally on the web. The rise of 3D printing may also have a big impact. People can buy a design from anywhere in the world, download it and print it. Maybe pay to have it customised for them.

And of course, if a business really needs a lot of extra tailored support, they might had had offices on the continent anyway. One area that is problematic therefore is, as others have pointed out, the stuff that didn’t need much local presence in the EU but which ran on tight margins and probably isn’t viable when you have greater shipping costs selling to the pacific. 

This is why things depend on how much business reorients to things less dependent on gravity. Or where if there is a local presence required, applies to rivals too so they don’t have an advantage. Which is why stuff like digital media and services might do well. We sell a lot of legal and marketing services internationally etc.

Another approach is to have something perceived as special enough that gravity doesn’t matter as much. Musk has shown what can be done despite gravity and with reduced local presence. 

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 16:16:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

* and a more left-wing policy of full employment renders this issue of free movement rather moot from a left wing perspective. There might still be an issue with things like exporting jobs though, which is why the left also have issue with things like the banning of capital controls that you tend to get with trade deals.

The one thing I would do if was in a position of influence is shout every day from the rooftops: we need an education system that serves all ages all the time. The world has changed, and it's not going back. Skills that one learned at school are important, but, for example, when I left school in 1978 there were no such things as computers. Yes they existed, but they needed a whole room to work, and probably another room to power them. Then you needed the men in white jackets (I can't think of the word, but you know what I mean, boffin types) to actually run these machines. Mere motals were not allowed anywhere near them.

A decade later 'mini' computers were all the rage, often running this upstart called Unix, and a few other types (Dec Vax, etc). These were more common, could sit in the corner of a room, and you could take your white jacket off to use it. A further decade and 'micro' machines were everwhere, along with a new thing, the 'information superhighway'!!

Now we have the power of some of these earlier machines in our hands, and when they break they get chucked in the bin. And with every round of development has come new opportunities, and a requirement for people with new skills to operate them, or service them. If you simply had the skills you used when at school that would be outdated -- who uses log books now? (log = logarithms)

In my working lifetime the world has tripped over itself several times. For the young today that hasn't stopped. If you are 30, 40 50 ... you should be aware of the latest technology. If not you'll be unemployable. And governments have a massive duty to keep their citizens (subjects Charlie? BTW, like the hat) well and truely trained to the hilt. (And citizens (subjects...) also have a duty to keep up as well; I'm looking at you lot, pensioners. The Internet is here to stay: LEARN IT.)

:-)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 9, 2023 20:16:07 GMT alurqa said:

May 9, 2023 16:16:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

* and a more left-wing policy of full employment renders this issue of free movement rather moot from a left wing perspective. There might still be an issue with things like exporting jobs though, which is why the left also have issue with things like the banning of capital controls that you tend to get with trade deals.

The one thing I would do if was in a position of influence is shout every day from the rooftops: we need an education system that serves all ages all the time. The world has changed, and it's not going back. Skills that one learned at school are important, but, for example, when I left school in 1978 there were no such things as computers. Yes they existed, but they needed a whole room to work, and probably another room to power them. Then you needed the men in white jackets (I can't think of the word, but you know what I mean, boffin types) to actually run these machines. Mere motals were not allowed anywhere near them.

As it happens at our school we were programming on a Uni mainframe the year before IIRC as we had a terminal with a modem link. Meant we could dispense with the punched cards etc. * Quite handy in one’s early teens. This sort of thing does give an advantage and am with you 100% on the utility of lifelong learning in an era of rapid change. (Having worked in the education system though, it isn’t always all that helpful in such respects…)

* I think the science department had a PET or summat too, but it seemed to be for the teachers, we didn’t get near it as far as I could tell.

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 17:42:43 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

pjw1961

Another potential cloud on Sunak’s horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?)

From the Telegraph:

“European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.

Wholesale gas prices could rise above €100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around €36.

European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.

However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above €90 per megawatt hour.”

:-)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

alurqa

Imma playing it safe and working on the assumption energy prices could be even worse…

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 19:09:02 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

I just asked my gf if we are watching Eurovision on Saturday, and apparently “we SO are”

You and 599,999,998 others. :-)

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 20:32:00 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

alurqa

Imma playing it safe and working on the assumption energy prices could be even worse…

Or, as I own quite a few Shell shares, better. :-)

[steve]

jib
The problem that Clegg discovered is that he had no mandate for a coalition with a party opposed by the vast majority of lib dem voters. The lib dems paid an electoral price that they are only just beginning to recover from 13 years later.

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 20:14:25 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Anothdt approach is to have something perceived as special enough that gravity doesn’t matter as much. Musk has shown what can be done despite gravity and with reduced local presence. 

Although gravity did have some influence on his latest Starship launch. Sorry, couldn't resist. Right, time to read more of my latest book, Erich Kästner's Emil und die Detektive (Detektive ist plural :-)

[neilj]

'It's the economy stupid'

[steve]

The convicted sex abuser was found culpable on 9 out of 10 counts

youtu.be/mbs7CjX9u5M

[oldnat]

May 9, 2023 19:26:36 GMT Mark said:

Trump found not guilty of rape but guilty of sexual assault.

[pjw1961]

May 9, 2023 20:51:54 GMT neilj said:

'It's the economy stupid'

Which reminds us of another of the truisms of British politics. The two key measures of likelihood to win are (a) perceived economic competence and (b) leadership. It is possible to win if you are behind on one of those, but no party has ever won if it is behind on both. 

[pjw1961]

May 9, 2023 19:48:28 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So what do people think is the minimum likely Tory recovery before the GE and does that still likely deliver an OM for Labour?

My guess - and that's all it can be - is that Labour will end up c8% ahead on election day (say 40% to 32%), but despite the "2019 electoral mountain" that will still be enough to deliver a small but workable OM, because the 2019 electoral coalitions will have factured to Labour's benefit and the mountain may not in the event be quite so high after all. 

I have thought that about the Lab/Con position since the fall of Johnson. Where I have changed my mind due to events and elections is that we may get fewer SNP and more Liberal Democrat MPs than I thought likely last summer, although I still think the SNP will be the third largest party. 

[expatr]

May 9, 2023 13:32:19 GMT Mark said:

May 9, 2023 5:55:50 GMT neilj said:

Even the Telegraph can see it's all over for the Tories and Sunak
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/08/rishi-sunak-teetering-on-brink-as-tories-face-oblivion/
Make no mistake: we have just entered the endgame in the Tories’ 13-year reign...
The PM is trapped in a zero-sum game where any attempt to court one group of voters with a targeted gesture risks alienating the other. Sending asylum seekers off to central Africa may prove roaringly popular in the Red Wall, but the prospect is unleashing paroxysms of disgust at the dinner parties of home-working centre-Right professionals. A new round of flashy net zero projects may help the likes of Dominic Raab cling on in Surrey’s virtuous millionaire enclaves, but Workington Man can only bristle with indignation at Whitehall’s breathy utopianism as he struggles to feed the gas meter.

In other words, the Tories are now collapsing on all fronts. Their short-lived dominance in the Red Wall is evaporating. Even more portentous is the resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Davey’s efforts to breach the “Blue Wall” with a strange brew of NHS activism, Nimbyism and carefully crafted attack ads on stealth taxes, is paying off. Equally disquieting is the thought that a second Brexit referendum could be the price of support in a coalition with Labour. The third party knows too well that the Remainer South’s nettling exasperation with Brexit has not abated.

But it gets even worse for the Tories; lurking beneath an increasingly bleak electoral calculus is an alarming historical trend. That is the strange death of Thatcherite England. It is striking that even in Tory swing seats in the South, the NHS was the biggest issue coming up on the doorstep at the local elections. There is a new generation of Tory voters that expects both lower taxes and a well-functioning health service. Three generations on from the Second World War, the welfare state’s entrenchment as a suite of basic entitlements for all citizens rather than a safety net for the most vulnerable seems complete.

The fading of Thatcherite England’s animal spirits is also unmistakable, even if it is only the Lib Dems who appear fully in tune with this trend. As asset values climb in an era of wage stagnation, small-C conservatives don’t hesitate to thwart developments that threaten the value of their nest eggs'

The article does go onto say the tories can recover if they fix the long term structural issues of the economy, but add 'Let’s not hold our breath'

Whatever happens in the next GE, the tories are doomed long term unless there is a serious sea change at their core.

That doesn't mean a free run for Labour ong term as a fair chunk of the country are economically ROC. Perhaps a new ROC party will emerge long term (without a tory sea change, I think this could well happen).

In the 1950's-1970's, what we call the 'post war consensus' was more or less followed by both main parties. Several on here have commented that the tory Chamberlain government was economically to the left of the Blair government....and certinly did better at, for example, house building.

We now have a new consensus, the "post brexit" one.

We see from polling, post brexit, younger voters have moved sharply towards liberal/left values on social issues, kick started IMO by brexit, but, amplified by climate change and to a lesser extent, by thing such as Black Lives Matter, the Me Too movement and more.

Some questions lend themselves at this point...

1. Surely there have been sizeable youth movements before?

Indeed there have. To give one example, along with over 150,000 others, I was on the Anti-Nazi League carnival of 1994. A demonstration march through London followed by a concert in Hyde Park. Admittedly the bands were the main draw for a fair few that attended, headliners including The Levellers and Manic Street Preachers, but, the there was next to nothing in the mainstream media. I got a friend to video the news programmes and looked through the next day's papers. There was almost no coverage.

Compare to today where footballers take the knee and everyone knows who Greta is.

2. People generally get more right wing as they get older.

Firstly, I don't think that is necessarily tue. The data for this assertion is generally that from the end of the second world war - there are some from the start of that period that are still around today.

Also, take, for example, Brexit. There are a chunk of voters that voted against the then EEC in the 1970s in their 20s/30s that voted for Brexit again in their 60s/70s. The largest anti-europe faction by generation both times.

The winter of discontent pushed some people towards ROC, the Iraq war didn't really help the tories as, while it was Blair that did it, opposition came from the left, not the right, then, we have Brexit.

Also, I would suggest that attitudes, while of course being shaped by events, are formed early on. Yes some have 'lightbulb moments', both LOC->ROC and ROC->LOC, later in life, but, many don't. People change their mind who to vote for in an individual election, they may change their mind on one particular issue, but, core values, once instilled, often don't change.

In terms of said core values, the liberal-quake or liberal consesus, isn't yet the maority of voters, the 'anti-woke' stuff still plays well with a chunk of, mostly, older voters, but, that will change. Id give it 20 years tops.

Such a change does not necessarily nean that on economic issues the majority will be LOC, some will still be ROC, the change happening mainly on the social axis, not the fiscal one, hence my thinking that we could see a new ROC party if the tories don't change.

2. People generally get more right wing as they get older.

I think now that there is fairly good evidence from both Britain and the US that this has only happened once to one generation. i.e. the post second world war generation who benefited from the social mobility policies of both countries in the 40s, 50s and 60s and entered their thirties/forties during the Thatcher/Reagan assault on the Keynesian consensus.

It is very clear from the UK data that the next generation (born mid 60s to 1980) have not become more right wing as they have got older (all polling data points towards this) and there's a similar, though less pronounced, pattern in the US.  Too early to say for the post 1980 generation (although they are now the same age as the post WW2 generation when they shifted right en masse)

So if I was being nasty I'd say the people who say this tend to be boomers imagining their experience is the only one that ever occurs.  Which appears to be a common pattern of behaviour.

[reggieside]

May 9, 2023 21:37:47 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 9, 2023 19:48:28 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So what do people think is the minimum likely Tory recovery before the GE and does that still likely deliver an OM for Labour?

My guess - and that's all it can be - is that Labour will end up c8% ahead on election day (say 40% to 32%), but despite the "2019 electoral mountain" that will still be enough to deliver a small but workable OM, because the 2019 electoral coalitions will have factured to Labour's benefit and the mountain may not in the event be quite so high after all. 

I have thought that about the Lab/Con position since the fall of Johnson. Where I have changed my mind due to events and elections is that we may get fewer SNP and more Liberal Democrat MPs than I thought likely last summer, although I still think the SNP will be the third largest party. 

   Good analysis and summary - sounds very much the most likely scenario. 

Despite a labour majority not being nailed on - what is surely nailed  is that the tories will be out of power.

[steve]

lululemonmustdobetter

While I expect Labour will win an overall majority possibly very large there is a difference between the recent local elections and those in 1995.
The Tories were just about as unpopular then registering around 28% of the vote however Labour were 12% further ahead than they are now in the election.
It's plausible that despite the toxicity of the Tories the absence of any real massive policy difference will undermine the level of the lead.

Obviously I would prefer that Labour has to rely on lib dem support but even with the current improvements I think this unlikely.

I would anticipate significant gains for the lib dems in the South and West and 40+ seats is entirely plausible on a vote share barely into teens.

[mercian]

May 9, 2023 16:37:47 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 9, 2023 16:28:49 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

I’ve argued myself before now, that there was a settled will, noting the polling drop after Black Weds., and how Tories never recovered. 

However…

Major didn’t have much of a majority and the rebels were able to keep making mayhem. Also, there was all the sleeze stuff. And despite a recovery there was all that negative equity etc.

So one wonders if that choked off any chance of a polling recovery? (This is rather tentative however…)

I seem to recall plenty of Tory mayhem and sleeze recently, and in place of negative equity we have had rising interest rates and rampant inflation. While the headline rate of the latter will come down that will still leave a lot of increase baked into prices and people have not had rises in their income to match it. In addition the public services are in a state of near collapse. There is not a lot of joy around at the moment and for a government that has been in power for 13 years they are not going to escape the blame. 

There's a whiff of 1964 about it to me. Tories in power for 13 years. Labour narrowly overthrowing a big majority. I've just noticed though that Labour actually dropped slightly in the popular vote. It's just that the Tories dropped more and Liberals doubled their vote. So like now, there is less than wild enthusiasm for Labour but there doesn't have to be.

[mercian]

May 9, 2023 17:30:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Last year "no arrangement with anyone (including LDEM)".. but that was last year I suppose.



TBC on the maths post GE'24 but can anyone trust a single word Starmer says? If SNP are kingmakers then will Starmer go back on yet another "pinky promise"?

For LDEM then they are now just the Orange wing of the Red Tory party hoping to maybe get a few red briefcases if the HoC maths makes them kingmakers post GE'24. I guess they've forgotten what happened in 2010-15 when they were the doormat for the Blue Tory party 

You can't blame them for trying to get a bit of power. Thorpe failed. Ashdown failed. Clegg was the only leader to get Lib and successor parties any ministers since the war.

[mercian]

May 9, 2023 18:12:14 GMT Danny said:

May 9, 2023 11:20:04 GMT patrickbrian said:

Cameron of course, refused to be associated with brexit at all. Give him credit for that, others too who resigned from parliament. But no credit to the quislings who went along with it even though they knew what a disaster it would be for the country.

Let's not forget that not long before the referendum (a few days?) he promised that he'd stay on whatever the result. Then when Leave won he resigned immediately.

[mercian]

alurqa

"Then you needed the men in white jackets (I can't think of the word, but you know what I mean, boffin types) to actually run these machines."

Operators. Rather looked down on by us programmers. And they didn't wear white jackets except in cartoons (in the 19702 anyway).

"In my working lifetime the world has tripped over itself several times. For the young today that hasn't stopped. If you are 30, 40 50 ... you should be aware of the latest technology. If not you'll be unemployable. And governments have a massive duty to keep their citizens (subjects Charlie? BTW, like the hat) well and truely trained to the hilt. (And citizens (subjects...) also have a duty to keep up as well; I'm looking at you lot, pensioners. The Internet is here to stay: LEARN IT.)"

Some of us pensioners have been using computers since the early 70s or before, but I agree that there are far too many people of 40+ who have little idea of how to anything more than send emails and perhaps google something. And sometimes not even that.

[expatr]

The support the point earlier based on Ipsos data this shows the percentage difference in the Conservative "lead" over others between each generational cohort and the overall vote share over the last 12 general elections.  Big take away is that while older cohorts are more likely to be more conservative the only shift to the right is for boomers (twice) in 1979 and post 2005.  Milennials have gone the other way, although this is likely to mark the difference between "apathetic" and "exceedingly pissed off" once they realised they had been locked out of middle class aspirations that they had been told to put themselves in hock to get through user-pays education.  Some roughness around the edges of precisely who is in what cohort and have included the kipper vote with the conservatives from 2015 onwards (was negligible before that but starts to distort especially in 2015 if you ignore it)

% difference between cohort Conservative vote "lead" over all others and overall Conservative vote share

	Oct 74	1979	1983	1987	1992	1997	2001	2005	2010	2015	2017	2019
Depression (born pre 1925)	10	3	6	6	5
Silent (1925-44)	-7	2	0	5	3	9	12	12	9	13	20
Boomer (1945-64)	-23	-4	-6	-8	-5	-4	-5	-7	3	13	20	32
Gen X (1965-79)				-12	-12	-8	-14	-14	-6	-8	-19	-9
Millennial (1980-97)							-10	-10	-11	-22	-40	-45
Gen Z   (1998-2010)												-51

My own view is there are major issues for both main parties in this. The Tories really do need to find ways of appealing to a majority of working age adults because there is no sign the Gen X is going to become majority Tory on current trends and the Millennials look lost for ever.  For Labour their biggest risk long-term risk is frankly being outflanked on the left.

[Deleted]

May 9, 2023 22:05:01 GMT reggieside said:

May 9, 2023 21:37:47 GMT pjw1961 said:

My guess - and that's all it can be - is that Labour will end up c8% ahead on election day (say 40% to 32%), but despite the "2019 electoral mountain" that will still be enough to deliver a small but workable OM, because the 2019 electoral coalitions will have factured to Labour's benefit and the mountain may not in the event be quite so high after all. 

I have thought that about the Lab/Con position since the fall of Johnson. Where I have changed my mind due to events and elections is that we may get fewer SNP and more Liberal Democrat MPs than I thought likely last summer, although I still think the SNP will be the third largest party. 

   Good analysis and summary - sounds very much the most likely scenario. 

Despite a labour majority not being nailed on - what is surely nailed  is that the tories will be out of power.

I can't 'like' this because I don't want to jinx it. 

[alurqa]

May 9, 2023 23:43:37 GMT mercian said:

alurqa

"Then you needed the men in white jackets (I can't think of the word, but you know what I mean, boffin types) to actually run these machines."

Operators. Rather looked down on by us programmers. And they didn't wear white jackets except in cartoons (in the 19702 anyway).

"In my working lifetime the world has tripped over itself several times. For the young today that hasn't stopped. If you are 30, 40 50 ... you should be aware of the latest technology. If not you'll be unemployable. And governments have a massive duty to keep their citizens (subjects Charlie? BTW, like the hat) well and truely trained to the hilt. (And citizens (subjects...) also have a duty to keep up as well; I'm looking at you lot, pensioners. The Internet is here to stay: LEARN IT.)"

Some of us pensioners have been using computers since the early 70s or before, but I agree that there are far too many people of 40+ who have little idea of how to anything more than send emails and perhaps google something. And sometimes not even that.

Yeah, I appreciate that. With a fifth of the population pensioners not all can't use a computer. But there seems, at least to me, a widespread attitude that you learn when you go to school and then that's it. And a refusal to learn is seen by some as a badge of honour. Being proud that one 'can't do maths', seeing it as a quality rather than a problem. If you live until you are 90 that's an awfully long time to rely on only your school education.

[steve]

The sexual abuser and liar and failed coupster remains the most likely candidate for President from the GOP, the GOP leadership says nothing, the convicted one is now joined by congressmen George " Billy liar" Santos who has been indicted for defrauding his electorate, Santos will of course not be removed from congress by the GOP leadership either.

Effectively the U.S. no longer has two leading parties campaigning for the democratic mandate it has one and a cabal of fascists conspirators and lick spittle acolytes of a fascist, sexually abusing liar.

2024 should be fun!

[neilj]

More blue on blue, but he gets it, pandering to their members/activists views will lose the tories the next election and the one after that

"The problem is the party. These voters have noticed that he felt obliged to make Suella Braverman his Home Secretary and know that he constantly has to keep his right-wing MPs and party activists onside. The activities of the Conservative Democratic Organisation and the occurrence of the National Conservatism Conference will not reassure them.

To win back these socially moderate voters, the Conservative Party badly needs a period of modernisation. As it is, Sunak is doing well to resist the pressure to move further to the right. A bad general election defeat will mean that he will no longer be in a position to do even that."