24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[neilj]

Not sure if we've had the final local election results (changes from 2019)

[Danny]

Exciting solution to NHS staff shortages has just been proposed by government. People will now be able to become apprentice doctors post A level and learn on the job in hospitals. So next time you are there and the doctor looks to be only 19, never mind the ten years normal university training, yep maybe he is.


alec,
news this morning from a diabetics organisation saying that serious disease is rising...because patients are not able to get medical services as they were previously able to do. Once again, they squarely blame failing services for increasing disease, not the covid virus, which you seem to like to blame for con failing to fund the NHS sufficiently to maintain services, and labour essentially agreeing with them.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 17:30:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Last year "no arrangement with anyone (including LDEM)".. but that was last year I suppose.
TBC on the maths post GE'24 but can anyone trust a single word Starmer says? If SNP are kingmakers then will Starmer go back on yet another "pinky promise"?

I see you are strongly on message that its a national disaster if labour makes some sort of parliamentary coalition, and yet not so if the party which has done this twice in the last 15 years does it repeatedly? The message would seem to be, if you do not like coalition government then do not vote conservative.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 17:42:43 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

pjw1961

Another potential cloud on Sunak’s horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?)

From the Telegraph:
“European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine. Wholesale gas prices could rise above €100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around €36. European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year. However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above €90 per megawatt hour.”

R4 covered this story this morning. What I found interesting was their interviewee observing that most european countries stockpile gas for the winter. Whereas the Uk sells it during the summer when it is cheap, and buys it in during the winter when it is expensive. Because the Uk government has refused to invest in national storage.

Hey, thats conservatives for you. Always want to maximise private sector profits at the expense of ordinary voters.  But of course thats at the expense mostly of non conservative voters.

[neilj]

Trump lost the 2020 election largely due to the women's vote, he got 44% to Bidens 54%
Trump's latest finding of sexual assault is only likely to increase his unpopularity among women, but it still looks like the Republicans will nominate him
Batshit crazy

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 17:46:57 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 9, 2023 17:36:33 GMT alec said:

Has anyone mentioned those posters recently? Labour looking a bit tasty in these latest polls.



Meanwhile, Sunak takes the private helicopter for a trip of an hour by train - www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/09/sunak-helicopter-train-southampton-prime-minister-rail

There's a man committed to the green revolution.

Ready for Rishi!

I was thinking about the posters yesterday. At the time Sunak looked the Tories strongest card, so attacking him personally with the aim of linking him to the preceding 13 years made tactical sense (whatever you think of the actual campaign itself). Now, with Sunak's ratings on the slide, there is less reason to need to do that. I suspect the spotty youths who come up with this stuff will switch to a more generic attack on the Tory record, but ensuring that Sunak is kept firmly in the frame. (Realistically his has a 'get out of jail' card on Truss as he warned against her approach, but he supported Brexit and was Johnson's Chancellor, so that's two disasters he can't disown).  

You missed out he supported lockdown, which short term cost more than Brexit but didnt produce a medical benefit anything like in proportion to the trillion pound cost to the UK.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 18:37:04 GMT leftieliberal said:

The particular value of a Lab-Lib Dem coalition in a hung parliament would come if it had not only a majority of the seats in the Commons but also a majority of the popular vote (as in the 2010 coalition); that helps its portrayal as the will of the people.

Don't forget a third of registered voters do not bother to do so, and there are yet more unregistered. So it might push a coalition up to a majority of the vote, but would almost certainly still fail to have majority support from the people who were so disgusted they saw no point in supporting any of the political parties.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 19:26:36 GMT Mark said:

Trump found not guilty of rape but guilty of sexual assault.

I heard people saying now he has been proved to have done whatever. Except this was a civil case and if the rules in the US are the same as here, the verdict just means he probably did something.

[crossbat11]

A question I've been pondering, and as yet have found no answer to, is what were the actual percentage vote shares of the various parties who contested last Thursday's local elections? In other words, not the projected national vote share, a figure calculated by extrapolating Thursday's voting behaviour to a putative nationwide general election, but a figure based on actual votes cast on the day.

This is of academic interest, I accept, and Thursday's battleground was fairly unrepresentative of the wider UK, but it would tell a story of sorts, I suppose. Of course, the meaningful statistics are numbers of councillors and councils won and lost, and how voters behaved in regions that are key in determining the general election result, but how the votes were shared by each party across England would be interesting. Regional breakdowns too.

I'm increasingly of the view that projected national vote share figures may well be asking us to believe quite a few impossible things before breakfast. Some of these celebrated psephological models are revered beyond their merits, I think. Particularly those that forecast events. Tea leaves that quickly change shape and refracted crystal balls

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 19:28:20 GMT steve said:

jib
Indeed it's a shame Labour didn't get a slightly higher percentage or lib dems had received more mps in line with their vote share, things could have been very different.

If libs had had 50 more MPs, even if all taken from con, my guess is the outcome would have been exacty the same and therfore disastrous for libs and indeed lib supporters like students or remainers.

It wouldnt surpise me even if con and lib had similar numbers Clegg would still have rolled over and played poodle. The problem was he and presumably others didnt see any problem in what they did simply abandoning their own manifesto.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 19:39:54 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 9, 2023 19:35:25 GMT alurqa said:

You won't be alone. Up to 600m people have watched it in the past. :-)

do we have any data though? Did we track the subsequent impact on life chances, Covid susceptibility etc.?

Now you mention it, there is probably a correlation between severe covid, heart disease, and spending a lot of time watching TV. Especially if accompanied by frequent snacks.

[steve]

@danny
If Clegg had cozied up to the Tories when a stable majority could have been achieved with Labour when the vast majority of lib dems membership would have preferred that he would have been de selected as leader.

Meanwhile in Tory insanity news Tories offer conflicting versions of their great escape plan.

Either bring back Spaffer, difficult if he's facing a recall petition but I'm sure they'll give it a bash.
Or Sunak should wear big boy trousers and start talking like Margaret Thatcher, these aren't euphemisms it's actually what these nutters think.


youtu.be/sgBMDL-6tN0

[steve]

@danny
The burden of proof in a civil case is on the balance of probabilities. The burden in a criminal conviction is beyond reasonable doubt, both have an element of doubt ,an unreasonable doubt is still a doubt.

The sex offender would almost certainly have been convicted in criminal tort on all the offences he was in civil given the evidence,much from himself was so egregious as to meet both the civil and criminal criteria.

[pete]

Personally I don't think Labour will need the Libs but if they do so be it. Tories should shoosh on the subject as as Danny says they've done it twice and once with a bribe and the religious nutty sectarian dinosaurs from N Ire.

In fact if a Lib/Lab pact winds up the Tories and their client journalists I'd rather that than a Lab om.

Tory party and its supporters really do take the biscuit at times (and the fecking cake).

This won't help the Tory party, getting closer to the election and this shit needed sorting but all they've got is culture wars and them boats www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-food-shortages-supermarkets-eu-b2328871.html

[pete]

May 10, 2023 7:41:47 GMT steve said:

@danny
The burden of proof in a civil case is on the balance of probabilities. The burden in a criminal conviction is beyond reasonable doubt, both have an element of doubt ,an unreasonable doubt is still a doubt.

The sex offender would almost certainly have been convicted in criminal tort on all the offences he was in civil given the evidence,much from himself was so egregious as to meet both the civil and criminal criteria.

A nice way of  saying Trump is  a nonce.
Trump supporters are supporting a nonce.
Wonder how many Tory MPs will come out for the nonce? We know Farage will (not a Tory MP obviously but a right-wing nutter).

[somerjohn]

Danny: "If libs had had 50 more MPs, even if all taken from con, my guess is the outcome would have been exacty the same."

If that had been the 2010 GE result, seat counts would have been:

Labour 258
Con 257
LD 107

In that (rather splendid, in my view) situation, the LDs would have had the luxury of choice but would surely have strongly preferred to go with Labour, both for its legitimacy as the leading party, and because of the better ideological fit. Plus, that's what LD voters and members expected, and I don't think it would have been possible to stitch up a deal with Cons, or get it approved by the membership, however much the orange bookers might have hankered after that.

Whether Labour would have gone for it is an interesting question. I think they were pretty much exhausted and out of ideas, and the visceral anti-LD streak meant some would have preferred opposition to coalition. I seem to recall that one LD requirement was a change of PM from Brown, which could have been a sticking point. But if it had happened, I think the resulting government could have been rather good. And how different things would now be.

[steve]

neilj

You would have thought that was the case however Dolt45 actually received a higher percentage of votes from women in 2020 than 2016.

The real change was in the suburban vote amongst both genders with Biden's vote share being 54% compared to Clinton's 45%
Biden retained the overwhelming majority of the black vote over 90% and an increased majority of the college educated vote.

Trumps core vote remained white male badly educated second amendment religious loons.

[steve]

pete
He's definitely a serial nonce, and a compulsive liar and a fascist narcissist,no argument with me there.

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 20:16:07 GMT alurqa said:

when I left school in 1978 there were no such things as computers. Yes they existed, but they needed a whole room to work, and probably another room to power them. Then you needed the men in white jackets (I can't think of the word, but you know what I mean, boffin types) to actually run these machines. Mere motals were not allowed anywhere near them.

Just as an observation on timing, which maybe doesnt invalidate your general argument because it was small scale, but I constructed a microcomputer kit in 1979 and then another in 80/81, and then designed one I guess 82. Not suggesting these were very practical, but the microprocessor computer chips were commercially available for sale by this time and came with comprehensive design tips published by their manufacturers how to use them. Designs for PCs were published in hobbyist magazines.

A decade later 'mini' computers were all the rage, often running this upstart called Unix, and a few other types (Dec Vax, etc). These were more common, could sit in the corner of a room, and you could take your white jacket off to use it. A further decade and 'micro' machines were everwhere, along with a new thing, the 'information superhighway'!!

When I went to university in 1980, the computing club had a mini computer which had been donated to them, presumably as obsolete. There was even a student who understood how it worked. The IBM PC was maybe about 1985, which started the personal computing revolution because it was an open standard others could copy. Apple started before that but lost their lead in terms of the technology design because they kept it proprietary. There were several other early designs. (nope- just checked wikipedia which says the IBM PC was first sold 1981, so earlier than I thought. They say the equivalent current prices was $4500, so maybe thats why I didnt meet one till later. In 1983 they sold 750,000). There were a number of other companies.

Now we have the power of some of these earlier machines in our hands, and when they break they get chucked in the bin.

Here I think you badly under estimate the current technology! Your phone is masively more capable than an original IBM PC. The base spec was 16KB ram, and i seem to recall one having a 10Mb hard disc? Compared to an old obsolete smart phone with 1Gb memory and several Gb storage? Plus the amazing screen resolution in colour. And it makes phone calls.

In my working lifetime the world has tripped over itself several times. For the young today that hasn't stopped. If you are 30, 40 50 ... you should be aware of the latest technology. If not you'll be unemployable.

You may have noticed though that marketing of mobile phones has changed greatly. They used to be bundled with contracts, now very many are sold separately. Its because the market is becoming established, ie you buy a new one because the old one wears out not because the new one is technically superior. It very likely is superior, but mostly you just do not need that increased capability. This must a 10 year old laptop I am using now.

And governments have a massive duty to keep their citizens (subjects Charlie? BTW, like the hat) well and truely trained to the hilt.

the few that work on designing computers need to know the details, but the many just need to know how to type, just as they did in the 1950s. Arguably more need to, because now the boss will be typing himself.

What is interesting is attempts by government to regain control of information spread via the internet. all sorts of countries are introducing censorship, not just the likes of Russia and China. The Uk is becoming a leader in state control of the internet.

[steve]

Brexit cloud spotted off the coast of Skegness

[Danny]

May 9, 2023 20:50:30 GMT steve said:

jib
The problem that Clegg discovered is that he had no mandate for a coalition with a party opposed by the vast majority of lib dem voters. The lib dems paid an electoral price that they are only just beginning to recover from 13 years later.

Yes that is true, but the libs had a distinctive manifesto with a number of promises incompatible with either lab or con. They rejected the idea of coalition with labour, but had that option been available on the numbers its also possible they could have ended up as badly as they did with con. I suspect they would have come out of it better, but they would still have had to be careful of the flipped charge, 'vote lib get lab'.

[crossbat11]

pete

You make a good point about the brass neck cheek of Toryland warning the nation about forthcoming coalitions of chaos should voters make the mistake of rejecting them at the next election. This from a party that after another election flop ( they've rather specialised in those since 1987) brought the DUP into the heart of government in order that they could cling to power. They've also visited upon the nation the only formal coalition government that we've had since the war. Again when they failed to win an election outright.

Leaving this humbug aside for a minute, I have no real problem with coalitions or sub-formal parliamentary collaborations to form functioning governments. A representative electoral system would make them the norm, I suspect, and I'm quite partial to representative electoral systems in a democracy.

It could well be too that a Lab/LibDem coalition would turn out to be one of the more radical governments of recent times, certainly in terms of green policies and constitutional reform.

The Tory/Lib Dem coalition of 2010 liberated the right leaning Lib Dem leading lights like Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Swinson etc. A coalition with Labour might well empower the more radical and left-leaning Lib Dems, of which there are quite a few, particularly amongst the membership and PPC group. The party has learned hard lessons from 2010-15 and Davey has revived their long standing and visceral anti-Tory tradition.

Starmer is right not to discount all coalitions. Go for an overall majority, rule out anything with the SNP, but keep some irons in the far. Sensible politics. All part of the Ming Vase journey.

Last Thursday suggests to me that Sir Keir is taking his very first tentative steps on that shiny floor now. Power in sight but the slippery floor extends quite a way into the distance. Vase firmly in hands now though. The prize in sight.

[Mr Poppy]

May 9, 2023 23:22:41 GMT mercian said:

May 9, 2023 17:30:48 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Last year "no arrangement with anyone (including LDEM)".. but that was last year I suppose.



TBC on the maths post GE'24 but can anyone trust a single word Starmer says? If SNP are kingmakers then will Starmer go back on yet another "pinky promise"?

For LDEM then they are now just the Orange wing of the Red Tory party hoping to maybe get a few red briefcases if the HoC maths makes them kingmakers post GE'24. I guess they've forgotten what happened in 2010-15 when they were the doormat for the Blue Tory party 

You can't blame them for trying to get a bit of power. Thorpe failed. Ashdown failed. Clegg was the only leader to get Lib and successor parties any ministers since the war.

I certainly don't blame them for wanting to snaffle a few red briefcases and pay rises from CON or doing the same if/when they get the opportunity with LAB. 'Tis exactly what I'd do - but then I'm a Tory 

Perhaps they have learned from the Cameron-CON coalition and don't roll over on everything under Starmer-LAB. The easiest way for Davey-LDEM to avoid breaking manifesto promises is to have pretty much the exact same policies as Starmer-LAB.

With CON and LAB having very similar policies then the "middle" is going to look a lot like both of them anyway. We're all Tories now 

PS Modest tangent but in the "plausible scenario" that LAB win a small OM then might they offer some kind of 'cooperation agreement'* to LDEM anyway? Neither LAB or LDEM are my party so others can comment on the details. The Far-Left twitterverse call him "Sir Keith Stalin" but Starmer hasn't totally purged all MPs from the Social Campaign Group faction so having 30ish LDEM MPs to back Starmer-LAB in HoC votes could come in useful.

* Somewhat similar to WLAB agreement with PC perhaps. Noting that in Wales then LAB could have continued with LDEM propping them up but instead chose WNATs. Not my polity so just making that observation noting the contrast to Starmer's "current" view on a deal with SNP

[Mr Poppy]

IIRC the "apprenticeship" route has been discussed before and certainly makes sense for nurses (IMO). No reason that couldn't be expanded further and Medical Students studying to become Doctors already do placements anyway - so it would just be a shift of emphasis.

Given a lot of nurses/junior doctors complain about the amount of student debt they have then what's not to like? Hopefully YG or someone will do a snap poll on what is IMO a #nobrainer (although would justifiably be called a 'sticking plaster' given the NHS is broken and needs far more radical changes - IMO)

School-leavers could join NHS via apprenticeships in plan to (partially) fix staff shortages
www.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/10/school-leavers-could-join-nhs-via-apprenticeships-in-plan-to-fix-staff-shortages

(partially added)

TBC what Starmer-Streeting say about it with "silent agreement" probably being the smart move or maybe claim it was their idea?

[steve]

crossbat11
I agree while the far left of the Labour party and the far right of the Tory party take pot shots at themselves the liberal democrats have settled on a platform of left of centre progressive anti Tory, particularly this Tory, agenda.
It's a position I'm more than comfortable with as a previous middle ground Labour party member.
I didn't actually require to change my political compass at all to become an active member.

[pjw1961]

May 10, 2023 7:10:29 GMT crossbat11 said:

A question I've been pondering, and as yet have found no answer to, is what were the actual percentage vote shares of the various parties who contested last Thursday's local elections? In other words, not the projected national vote share, a figure calculated by extrapolating Thursday's voting behaviour to a putative nationwide general election, but a figure based on actual votes cast on the day.

This is of academic interest, I accept, and Thursday's battleground was fairly unrepresentative of the wider UK, but it would tell a story of sorts, I suppose. Of course, the meaningful statistics are numbers of councillors and councils won and lost, and how voters behaved in regions that are key in determining the general election result, but how the votes were shared by each party across England would be interesting. Regional breakdowns too.

I'm increasingly of the view that projected national vote share figures may well be asking us to believe quite a few impossible things before breakfast. Some of these celebrated psephological models are revered beyond their merits, I think. Particularly those that forecast events. Tea leaves that quickly change shape and refracted crystal balls

Re actual vote shares, I haven't seen them either, but it is fair to assume that compared to the calculated figure Labour's share will be lower (but still up on 2019) and the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens higher, because so many semi-rural Conservative voting English District Councils were in the mix, while London, Wales and Scotland didn't feature at all.

Anyway, there are problems with calculating the party percentage votes in multi-councillor wards, with parties standing different numbers of candidates and the candidates of parties sometimes receiving significantly different levels of support. We had a discussion on here about that while you were away. As an example, here is the result in the ward I live in: 

Braintree South
Green, Martin John Labour Party 468 Elected
Bowers, Kevin James Conservative Party Candidate 457 Elected
Thurgood, Jacqueline Labour Party 444
Rehman, Saif Conservative Party Candidate 399
Wicks, Stuart Roy The Green Party Candidate 185
Hughes, Thomas James Liberal Democrat 144

Only one Green and one Lib Dem, compared to 2 candidates for Con and Lab and gaps in support between the main party candidates (the alphabet is known to play a role there). So what is the level of support for each party? You can't just add all the votes together, because every voter had a potential 2 they could cast. It is not simple to answer that question. 

I agree with you about the slightly 'voodoo' nature of projected national vote share. The BBC calculation was based on the results from just 45 wards. I am sure they did their best to pick a representative sample, but just supposed you happened to select a ward in Slough where there was a big swing toward the Conservatives or Bracknell Forest where the opposition parties stood down for one another - you could end up with a very odd results.
 

[Mr Poppy]

The "Illegal Immigration Bill" is being debated in HoL today. Amendments and 1+ rounds of 'ping pong' are a certainty but LDEM trying to pull a stunt by rejection of the entire piece of legislation. Twitterverse reckon LAB will vote against LDEM's motion, but we'll wait and see.

NB LDEM trying to "bounce" LAB into voting with them against CON is "interesting". As with Brexit and the WF then LAB backed CON but LDEM voted against. Whilst Sir Ed and Sir Keith are currently in the foreplay stage of a "bro-mance" then maybe not everyone in LDEM got the memo (and IIRC then even LDEM folks will say trying to get all LDEM politicians to agree is 'like herding cats')

[Deleted]

May 10, 2023 7:47:35 GMT pete said:

May 10, 2023 7:41:47 GMT steve said:

@danny
The burden of proof in a civil case is on the balance of probabilities. The burden in a criminal conviction is beyond reasonable doubt, both have an element of doubt ,an unreasonable doubt is still a doubt.

The sex offender would almost certainly have been convicted in criminal tort on all the offences he was in civil given the evidence,much from himself was so egregious as to meet both the civil and criminal criteria.

A nice way of  saying Trump is  a nonce.
Trump supporters are supporting a nonce.
Wonder how many Tory MPs will come out for the nonce? We know Farage will (not a Tory MP obviously but a right-wing nutter).

And the winner is .........

Jacob Rees-Mogg

(no surprises there then)

[crossbat11]

pjw1961

Good point about multi-councillor wards, I'd overlooked that complication in terms of calculating overall party vote shares, although movement from 2019 might have been interesting, especially in key battleground regions. Academic though, I accept.

Off for a little bit of coastal path walking. Low Newton to Craster and back this morning. The Jolly Fisherman and the kipper smokeries of Craster beckon!

Before the rain forecast for later today!

Adieu.

[pjw1961]

Suella Braverman writes in the times: "illegal immigration is out of control". If only she could find out which party has been in power for 13 years and indeed who the Home Secretary is, she'll give 'em hell!

More disturbingly, she was busy invoking 'the will of the people' again - a classic fascist trope.