steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 17:15:23 GMT
pjw1961I think we can be certain of that however the imaginary voices of long retired politicians that trigger him won't of course have any role in such an arrangement. Given that the liberal democrats have unequivocally ruled out any arrangements with the Tories and Labour have ruled out unequivocally any arrangements with the SNP there only appears to be one multi party game in town.
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Post by shevii on May 9, 2023 17:17:13 GMT
Shevii it was probably me who asked last year as well. Apologies,the old brain cells obviously struggling a bit đ. Interesting that again the Guardian figures increase the labour gains . They do however decrease the Tory losses so it's swings and roundabouts. I hadn't noticed that as the 1,000 Tory losses was very obvious that they were over and under. Don't worry if you did- my memory is even worse- you just need to be careful enough with people with sharper memories than me :-) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 17:17:17 GMT
In other words, cuckoo politics abounds. (Or in Floydian terms, itâs the Animals album, where the sheep are persuaded by the pigs to turn on the Dogs etc.) youtu.be/D4KQae9oMWs |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 17:30:48 GMT
Last year "no arrangement with anyone (including LDEM)".. but that was last year I suppose. TBC on the maths post GE'24 but can anyone trust a single word Starmer says? If SNP are kingmakers then will Starmer go back on yet another "pinky promise"? For LDEM then they are now just the Orange wing of the Red Tory party hoping to maybe get a few red briefcases if the HoC maths makes them kingmakers post GE'24. I guess they've forgotten what happened in 2010-15 when they were the doormat for the Blue Tory party  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2023 17:31:10 GMT
Well in 2015 the effects of austerity had not yet fully worked through and 2017 and 2019 were dominated by Brexit. I think in 2024 the economy and public services are going to be front and centre. The polls certainly suggest they are the highest profile issues. yeah, I mean it does seem to be Labourâs to lose. I just like to consider the less likely possibilities, just in case. Yes, nothing should (or will) be taken for granted - but as they say governments lose elections more than oppositions winning them. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 17:35:44 GMT
yeah, I mean it does seem to be Labourâs to lose. I just like to consider the less likely possibilities, just in case. Yes, nothing should (or will) be taken for granted - but as they say governments lose elections more than oppositions winning them. meant to say, thereâs potentially a bit of an issue if Sunak decides to go against type and open the taps more, esp. after the result in the locals, but itâs running out of time to have an impact. And of course Truss sort of tried that and took a hit. Arguably it might have been ok if sheâd done it slower but then there isnât much time. (Not that I thought hers was the ideal stimulus anyway) |
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Post by alec on May 9, 2023 17:36:33 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 17:41:14 GMT
Starmer refusing to rule out a coalition with the liberal democrats in the event of a hung parliament. Personally I think irrespective of a hung parliament a coalition would be nice to see as it would be one of the exceptionally rare events where we actually had an administration elected by the majority of voters. This could be very useful for Labour. If Starmer arranged a trade deal with the US, for example, he might even get the Lib Dems to announce it. \jib Here's my short list of possibly "unpopular" policies that Starmer can hang on Davey 1/ Scrap the pension triple lock 2/ Scrap the Barnett formula (if LAB don't recover as much in Scotland as some people hope) 3/ Private 'Health Insurance' as the NHS 'money pit' needs to be changed Elsewhere it will be mostly 'continuity Tory' and LAB front benchers are queuing up to say they'll keep CON policies on most issues (my guess is the Rwanda scheme will stay if it's up and running ahead of GE'24 - maybe Starmer can blame LDEM for keeping that?) TBC on a trade deal with US. US joining CPTPP would IMO be the better option but I'm OK with our current trade deal with US and perhaps just adding a few 'mini deals' at a bilateral/multilateral level on services. Being outside the EU then main benefit is to avoid getting caught up in a US-EU trade war - if that should ever occur (and since we'd benefit it one did, then that would be fine by me ) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 17:42:43 GMT
pjw1961 Another potential cloud on Sunakâs horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?) From the Telegraph: â European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.
Wholesale gas prices could rise above âŹ100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around âŹ36.
European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.
However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above âŹ90 per megawatt hour.â
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2023 17:46:57 GMT
I was thinking about the posters yesterday. At the time Sunak looked the Tories strongest card, so attacking him personally with the aim of linking him to the preceding 13 years made tactical sense (whatever you think of the actual campaign itself). Now, with Sunak's ratings on the slide, there is less reason to need to do that. I suspect the spotty youths who come up with this stuff will switch to a more generic attack on the Tory record, but ensuring that Sunak is kept firmly in the frame. (Realistically his has a 'get out of jail' card on Truss as he warned against her approach, but he supported Brexit and was Johnson's Chancellor, so that's two disasters he can't disown). |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 9, 2023 17:53:04 GMT
pjw1961 Another potential cloud on Sunakâs horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?) From the Telegraph: â European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.
Wholesale gas prices could rise above âŹ100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around âŹ36.
European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.
However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above âŹ90 per megawatt hour.â
If the government subsidise energy bills then there is less/no money for the tax cuts many Tory MPs crave. Choices! Looking at Sunak's 5 priorities, he is currently failing badly on NHS waiting lists and the small boats and there is little sign of significant economic growth. If the inflation one - which looked the banker - were to fail as well, it doesn't amount to much of a sales pitch for 2024. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 9, 2023 17:55:19 GMT
pjw1961 Another potential cloud on Sunakâs horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?) From the Telegraph: â European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.
Wholesale gas prices could rise above âŹ100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around âŹ36.
European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.
However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above âŹ90 per megawatt hour.â
Futures markets always show a drop in Summer and present level is âŹ36 but folks can check the markets view on "second half of the year" www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGM23/futures-pricesEG Taking say Dec'23 contract then it reached close to âŹ300 in Aug'22 and is now a bit below âŹ60. The "seasonal" factor alone will mean gas prices might almost double later this year but even at âŹ100 they'd be a lot lower than various times last year. However, to make something "click bait" newsworthy then "could nearly treble" might get a few clicks I suppose. If there is any future help then I hope it is a lot more targeted and a lot less expensive for future taxpayers to have to pay back. NB A lot of the reason UK inflation isn't dropping as fast as some EU countries is due to the different types of "help" given and the "lag" in the UK's approach. I look forward to people stating "base effects" are the reason when UK inflation starts printing lower than EU inflation later this year and into next year |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 18:03:08 GMT
pjw1961 Another potential cloud on Sunakâs horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?) From the Telegraph: â European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.
Wholesale gas prices could rise above âŹ100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around âŹ36.
European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.
However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above âŹ90 per megawatt hour.â
Futures markets always show a drop in Summer and present level is âŹ36 but folks can check the markets view on "second half of the year" Yes, energy futures markets are one of my many blindspots and am happy to learn about the matter. (Esp. if it means I donât have to divert money away from more important things, like a new iPhone, or audio streamer). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 18:08:23 GMT
pjw1961 Another potential cloud on Sunakâs horizon (Really think he needed to subsidise energy prices more. Will he do it next time?) From the Telegraph: â European gas prices could nearly treble this winter and remain higher into summer next year, according to Goldman Sachs, delivering a shock to households and a boost to Vladimir Putin's efforts to fund his war in Ukraine.
Wholesale gas prices could rise above âŹ100 per megawatt hour in the second half of the year, nearly three times higher than present levels of around âŹ36.
European gas prices have fallen after the continent emerged from winter with gas stocks more than half full and close to record highs for the time of year.
However, Goldman Sachs expects European consumption and liquified natural gas (LNG) demand elsewhere in the world to rebound in the second half of 2023 raising prices on average above âŹ90 per megawatt hour.â
If the government subsidise energy bills then there is less/no money for the tax cuts many Tory MPs crave. Choices! . well in principle lowering energy prices might help the economy so they can afford to move on tax anyway, but those politicians mostly did PPE and stuff so wtf. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 18:12:14 GMT
Colin Why do you suppose I'm a Labour supporter? At the moment I don't support any party, though I do want a change. I actually didn't think the Cameron /Clegg govt was that bad. I didn't like everything, but it functioned. I don't see that at present, and am a bit surprised that the quite able Sunak even wants to go on leading it. It looks from the Locals as if quite big chunks of the electorate have come to the same conclusion.... The problem of course was that conservatives wanted to rule without libs. and so they adopted offering a referendum. Which was won by the side which lied most. Unsurprisingly it is now a bit of a disaster. Had the libs not allied with con then our situation now would likely have been very different. And so you have to say that cameron's administration was an utter disaster because it laid the ground for brexit. The extremists who accompanied the brexit policy then set about tearing up the UK economy in a way cameron might have baulked at.
Cameron of course, refused to be associated with brexit at all. Give him credit for that, others too who resigned from parliament. But no credit to the quislings who went along with it even though they knew what a disaster it would be for the country. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 9, 2023 18:14:00 GMT
"Speaking at the 78th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany, the Russian president drew historical parallels between the second world war and fighting in Ukraine" There are indeed a crazed dictator invaded his democratic neighbours then as well. Yeah, about that. We recently had a military parade apparently involving 4000 servicemen. Cant help wondering whether despite having a war to fight, Russia might have still found more than that to parade about? |
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Post by James E on May 9, 2023 18:14:53 GMT
Some details from Deltapoll as to where Conservative voters from 2019 now stand:
They are still retaining more of their Remain-voting supporters from 2019 than their Leavers. However, they are also losing more Remainers to Labour. The different cross-breaks, averaged from the past 5 Deltapolls are:
Con-Leavers
Con 64%
Lab 18%
LD 3%
Ref 10%
Grn 1%
Con-Remainers
Con 70%
Lab 22%
LD 5%
Ref 1%
Grn 1%
So they're retaining a net 48% of Con-remainers against Labour, as opposed to 46% of Con-leavers.
AND:
"And if there were a second referendum on British membership of the European Union, how would you vote?"
Figures for Conservative 2019 voters (sample of 525) excl DK and WNV.
Stay Out 70%
Rejoin 30%
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Post by jib on May 9, 2023 18:36:04 GMT
Starmer refusing to rule out a coalition with the liberal democrats in the event of a hung parliament. Personally I think irrespective of a hung parliament a coalition would be nice to see as it would be one of the exceptionally rare events where we actually had an administration elected by the majority of voters. I can hear jib warming up his coloured pens now ...  ![]() Attachment DeletedThe tyranny of the majority.  |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 9, 2023 18:37:04 GMT
Starmer refusing to rule out a coalition with the liberal democrats in the event of a hung parliament. Personally I think irrespective of a hung parliament a coalition would be nice to see as it would be one of the exceptionally rare events where we actually had an administration elected by the majority of voters. The particular value of a Lab-Lib Dem coalition in a hung parliament would come if it had not only a majority of the seats in the Commons but also a majority of the popular vote (as in the 2010 coalition); that helps its portrayal as the will of the people. In contrast, a Lab-SNP coalition, even if it had not been explicitly ruled out by Starmer, would have a minority of the popular vote behind it and so could be attacked on the same basis as FPTP, in that it gave power to parties on a minority of the popular vote. The Tories would attack it anyway but I think that this double majority idea makes a coalition government under FPTP easier to sell. EDIT: I see jib has got in first with his crayons.  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 9, 2023 18:46:25 GMT
Are people are looking forward to Eurovision on Saturday? No. Next question. |
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Post by jib on May 9, 2023 18:46:48 GMT
And the progressive majority.....could have been so different.  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 19:09:02 GMT
I just asked my gf if we are watching Eurovision on Saturday, and apparently âwe SO areâ
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Post by John Chanin on May 9, 2023 19:22:15 GMT
I just asked my gf if we are watching Eurovision on Saturday, and apparently âwe SO areâ |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 19:26:13 GMT
So now it's number 45 failed coupster and convicted sex offender.
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Post by Mark on May 9, 2023 19:26:36 GMT
Trump found not guilty of rape but guilty of sexual assault.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 19:28:20 GMT
jibIndeed it's a shame Labour didn't get a slightly higher percentage or lib dems had received more mps in line with their vote share, things could have been very different.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 19:28:30 GMT
I just asked my gf if we are watching Eurovision on Saturday, and apparently âwe SO areâ haha, well there is also âpuppet manâ from the same group, which is a bit groovier youtu.be/lohkN5f3Yo0 |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 9, 2023 19:30:30 GMT
@mark
Technically it's not a guilty or not guilty verdict as a civil case but the jury did unanimously find number 45 both a sex abuser and a liar.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on May 9, 2023 19:35:25 GMT
No. Next question. I am looking forward to Saturday, if that helps You won't be alone. Up to 600m people have watched it in the past. :-) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 9, 2023 19:39:54 GMT
I am looking forward to Saturday, if that helps You won't be alone. Up to 600m people have watched it in the past. :-) do we have any data though? Did we track the subsequent impact on life chances, Covid susceptibility etc.? |
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