pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 17:23:38 GMT
Btw - looking at the 2023 predictions game, I would say lululemonmustdobetter is looking likely be closest to the number of Tory councils (unless the remainder are really bad for them).
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 17:26:11 GMT
Final result from Mole Valley - Lib Dem 30 Ind 6 Con 2. The total Lib Dem vote was more than 50% greater than the Con vote.The sitting Con MP has a majority of 14,000 - but I'm more convinced than ever he'll be kicked out next year. It is a mistake to take local election results too literally. In May 1968 the Tories swept most of the seats in Hackney - but were not at all competitive there at the 1970 GE. The difficulties with estimating general election results from these elections are many. One in particular though is the surge for lib dems in traditional tory areas. The consequence of this could be that lib and lab voter shares become additive when predicting a westminster outcome. eg in theory a party with 40% of the vote could be defeated everywhere by two parties on 21% of the vote... provded the two other parties are not competing with each other. Obviosuly that extreme is not going to happen. However it does look like libs will make wins against conservatives where lab could not, and lib votes will concentrate in winnable areas, and similarly lab votes. It is of course a feature of FPP that you can flip from triumph to disaster on a relatively small shift of support, just so long as it is disributed well. |
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Post by norfolkandgood on May 5, 2023 17:31:54 GMT
Various Tory talking heads bemoaning the loss of "hard working Tories" so presumably not a problem that the bone idle ones have got the boot. That will be those with 2 jobs |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:32:56 GMT
Labour now the largest party in local Government, first time in 21 years
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Post by thylacine on May 5, 2023 17:36:31 GMT
Tories go past 900 losses.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:38:10 GMT
Interesting and informative polling thread here on the chances of Labour getting an overall majority
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 17:38:38 GMT
Tories go past 900 losses. Come on guys, one more push. . .we can get them over the line. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:47:02 GMT
Tories go past 900 losses. Come on guys, one more push. . .we can get them over the line. 923 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 17:47:33 GMT
Her governments reduced the basic rate of Income Tax from 33% to around 21%. This was most beneficial to lower earners. Not with you there mate...If you are such a low earner you do not pay tax at all then this didnt help you. If you earned enough to reach to somewhere in the basic rate range but not beyond then you gained less than someone earning more and paying also at a higher rate. What is guaranteed is the hghest earners got the maximum benefit, others less. Said houses now belong to investment owners who charge 'market rents' based upon the full hugely inflated value of those homes. Whereas under council ownership rents were based upon construction costs, which were massively less. Although the first owners probably got a free gift of cash, the houses then went into the general market. Or else they are now only available at full market price for sale, not rent. I know quite a few people who saw this as part of a great investment opportunity to buy still cheap homes in poorly rated areas which have since morphed into middle class neighbourhoods. So basically, the first owners got a big bribe but ever since any investment profits have accrued to the rich. These must by now be a lot bigger for the rich than the original free gifts to the poor. It has also removed competition from the rental market, meaning anyone in the private sector rental business, ie people with the capital to do so, has been able to push up rents and so their profits. It has been a brilliant scheme to shift wealth from the poor to the rich. However once again those shares are now almost all in the hands of major investors. sure the public got a free gift of shares, but then private sector bought up those companies and has run them for profit and not public good. Its not quite what you are talking about, but a recent stat said the water companies now have debts of £50 bn, starting from none, which have basically been run up to pay dividends to shareholders. |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 17:53:19 GMT
Come on guys, one more push. . .we can get them over the line. 923 940 |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:57:15 GMT
My council Herefordshire bucked the trend and returned the tories as the largest party
They took 21 seats, up from from 14, but short of the 27 required for an outright majority in the 53-seat council
The lib-dems doubled their seats from 6 to 12
The reason is one reason only, a bypass.
The tories and lib-dems were the only ones in favour of it and from my anecdotal evidence most people I know in Hereford are in favour of one
The traffic congestion is dire with the main A49 road going through the town across the only accessible bridge
When the current incumbents came to power (mixture of Greens and independents and may Herefordshire, they cancelled the plans for a bypass and Southern Link relief road, which were quite far along at the time
It seems they were punished for it in the polls
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 17:58:01 GMT
Analysis of Green gains and losses so far (although their figures are very different from the BBC so whether BBC is tardy or they are assuming gains based on what they know at the count I'm not sure): HOLD 96 GAIN 117 (79 from CON, 10 from LAB, 4 from LD, 22 from IND) LOSS 21 (8 to CON, 10 to LAB, 3 from LD, 1 to IND) Interesting the Lab/Green and Green/LD cancels out and Green gains are basically coming from Tories. Not entirely surprising if Tories haven't turned out but it shows an ABT in play. I’ve enjoyed today. 🙂 Lovely walk from Porthcurno up the cliffs to the Logan Rock pub, an absolute gem, for din-dins and a pint of Rattler cider. Yum yum. Then onto Lamorna where we are staying. 9 miles of loveliness but do you know what, I was looking forward to coming on here and catching up. Anyway, ABT. These elections have given people who want this lot out so much direction as to who to who to vote for to remove/ thwart the Tories come the GE. I wonder if this will be something Tory HQ will be particularly nervous about in the aftermath of their rout. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 17:59:12 GMT
The change on the Sussex coast started in Brighton, spread to Hove, then Worthing (a Labour Council!), Adur and now Lewes. It has something to do with people moving out of London due to housing costs I suspect. Surely it started in Hastings 😀 Funnily enough when I was a lad, hastings was a con-lib marginal. And the reasoning above might indeed explain this, because it had a lot of expansion from people and light industry moved out of London under government policy to shrink the capital post war. So maybe not so different in outlook to the commuters who currently live in those railway commuter towns in Sussex. Since then Hastings industry has collapsed like eveywhere else and labour has supplanted libs. Become a bit post industrial. Once had the sobriquet 'murder capital of England'. The former grammar school was burnt down twice after being comprehensivised by Thatcher. Was labour under blair with a traditional socialist lawyer as the MP. Then went con on Brexit. As often the case with places worried about immigration, it was generally boycotted by immigrants because no reason to go there. At least until government noticed the low property prices and started dumping unemployed and immigrants in limbo in the town. |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 18:01:42 GMT
It appears that in Brighton the Greens lost 9 of the 13 seats they were defending.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 18:02:53 GMT
I’ve enjoyed today. 🙂 Lovely walk from Porthcurno up the cliffs to the Logan Rock pub, an absolute gem, for din-dins and a pint of Rattler cider. Yum yum. Then onto Lamorna where we are staying. 9 miles of loveliness but do you know what, I was looking forward to coming on here and catching up. Anyway, ABT. These elections have given people who want this lot out so much direction as to who to who to vote for to remove/ thwart the Tories come the GE. I wonder if this will be something Tory HQ will be particularly nervous about in the aftermath of their rout. Porthcurno, lovely place. I've been to the Telegraph (that's cable not the newspaper) Museum there. |
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Post by alec on May 5, 2023 18:03:43 GMT
Read earlier of people thinking Tory losses of 1000 were overcooked. BBC now has them at 940 down.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 18:06:58 GMT
It appears that in Brighton the Greens lost 9 of the 13 seats they were defending. It is a good thing for Caroline Lucas that she has a personal vote, as the Greens at Council level have been almost wiped out. It's a Labour city now. |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 18:07:24 GMT
Read earlier of people thinking Tory losses of 1000 were overcooked. BBC now has them at 940 down. Make that 958 |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 18:08:45 GMT
Maybe too counter-intuitive, even far-fetched, but I wonder if the introduction of compulsory voter photo ID, has been an element in the Tories drubbing in these local elections. Not in the sense that the measure discriminates against their core voters, because it doesn't, but because it offends against conservatism. The hankering for continuity and tradition and a sense of fair play. Moderate Conservative voters share these decent and benign values and I suspect many would have disliked the new requirement in the same way they would have bridled at the pencil in a string being replaced by a keypad. Well its a thought, but I doubt it. This would in essence be a boycot on an issue of policy, not being unable to vote for lack of ID. not sure what you mean by conservative core vote ? is that pensioners? I think the issue has not been thought through enough, because it isnt how many of labour leaning voters might not have ID, compared to how many of con leaning voters, but how many more narrowly amongst those who were actually going to vote. it is possible that amongst those always intending to vote, the younger labour leaning are better organised than the retired conservatives. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 18:10:04 GMT
Su Knackered has been claiming that his small boats policy has widespread public support if this was true the Tories must have done well in Dover.It would appear Labour have won it! Labour have got Thanet as well. Gained 10 to have 30/56. Edit: And in Folkestone and Hythe Green gained 5 and Labour 4 making them the two largest parties on the Council. Is it possible that the people down there don't have much faith in the Tories to deliver anything? |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 18:12:26 GMT
Now 1000 net losses at 7:17 pm and 217 councils declared. Hooray!
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 18:14:08 GMT
Read earlier of people thinking Tory losses of 1000 were overcooked. BBC now has them at 940 down. Make that 958 This game we, well some of us at least, are playing with the ticker tape has made me wonder if the negative number includes seats lost through new boundaries etc. For example, Derbyshire Dales, which at this moment hasn't declared the result, has five fewer seats this time. If they were all Conservative is that 5 extra losses? |
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Post by alec on May 5, 2023 18:15:10 GMT
I think I'm also right in saying that Labour gains of +500 seem greater than most expected, and not talking of Labour expectation management here.
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 18:16:09 GMT
It appears that in Brighton the Greens lost 9 of the 13 seats they were defending. It is a good thing for Caroline Lucas that she has a personal vote, as the Greens at Council level have been almost wiped out. It's a Labour city now. I spend 2 days a week in Brighton. I'm very impressed by their older persons bus pass rules - you can use it from 09.00 rather than the 09.30 in most other places, and even on night buses! Don't even think about parking in a city centre car park though unless you want to take out a 2nd mortgage. |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 18:16:28 GMT
It appears that in Brighton the Greens lost 9 of the 13 seats they were defending. Yep- and also Greens have missed Lancaster which was one of their top targets (even for outright control)- as far as I can tell Labour may be biggest Party there now so likely to be forming the administration. Greens generally had a good day though and a lot of biggest party including some unusual places like Folkestone. I've always thought Greens time will come if Labour get in and there is a disappointing Starmer administration, although, based on PR in European countries there will be an upper limit on the Green vote. I think Labour will be happy with these results overall, although clearly when other LOC options are available voters have taken them. What we may never know is relative turnout and how many Tories stayed at home (equally how many Labour stayed at home) and how much was actually voters switching their votes. Labour will be pleased that this confirms the polls which suggest people have had enough of the Tories and Labour are there for a two horse race. |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 18:19:01 GMT
1001 with 13 councils still to declare. A proper drubbing and worse than any expectations.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2023 18:19:09 GMT
Things must have been really bad for the blues.
We've only had six posts from Trev in the last eight hours.
Ready for Rishi!
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 18:21:11 GMT
Labour have made one gain in Wychavon.
They now gave the grand total of one councillor on the District Council. Labour group meetings will be fractious now.
From little acorns do great oak trees grow! Overall control in sight
😉🤣
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 18:22:32 GMT
Greens biggest party on Lewes council and now a Tory free zone. It's a lovely place Lewes with lots of character and dinky independent shops, quaint pubs, a castle and a fan owned football club which has the same budget for the mens and womens teams and the playing surface in a huge valley which is quite unique to any football ground I've ever seen (certainly one for @crossbat groundhopping if he's never been). Also their famous bonfire night with the burning effigies. I was always a little surprised how well the Tories did here but perhaps it is a relatively wealthy place even if many have a different outlook on life. The change on the Sussex coast started in Brighton, spread to Hove, then Worthing (a Labour Council!), Adur and now Lewes. It has something to do with people moving out of London due to housing costs I suspect. I can assure you that people don't move to Brighton or Lewes to reduce their housing costs! And the Lib Dems were only a couple of thousand short of winning Lewes back from Con last time round - I sincerely hope the Greens won't end up splitting the vote there. |
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Post by matt126 on May 5, 2023 18:24:38 GMT
There is now a large presence in local government for ABT coalitions with Labour now largest party in the seats contested today with Lib Dems and Greens combined having near as many seats as the Tories. Could this increase in Lib Dem and Green change the dynamic in a lot of seats previously considered safe Conservative.
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