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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 18:25:57 GMT
Tories cross the negative 1000 seat barrier.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 18:36:31 GMT
I think I'm also right in saying that Labour gains of +500 seem greater than most expected, and not talking of Labour expectation management here. I think Labour have about met their expectations, the Liberal Democrats slightly exceeded theirs and the Greens massively so. The Lib Dem and Green performances are very good, given that they did relatively well in 2019. |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 5, 2023 18:41:42 GMT
There is now a large presence in local government for ABT coalitions with Labour now largest party in the seats contested today with Lib Dems and Greens combined having near as many seats as the Tories. Could this increase in Lib Dem and Green change the dynamic in a lot of seats previously considered safe Conservative. I think it does. This is a Tory nightmare brewing, squeezed by the Lib Dems and Labour, in serious ABT tactical moves. It makes the formation of a government harder, but if it pushes Labour to electoral reform, it would would a good thing. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 18:41:49 GMT
Talking about the South coast, I note that in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (all one council) the Tories started yesterday with 36 seats and ended today with 12. 13 Lib Dem gains, 8 Labour gains, 3 Green gains. The Bournemouth seats, and perhaps even Poole, could be interesting at the next GE.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 18:43:07 GMT
This game we, well some of us at least, are playing with the ticker tape has made me wonder if the negative number includes seats lost through new boundaries etc. For example, Derbyshire Dales, which at this moment hasn't declared the result, has five fewer seats this time. If they were all Conservative is that 5 extra losses? For the BBC figures at least, the total number of gains and losses adds up to zero. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 5, 2023 18:46:31 GMT
While the Tory defeats that many have written on here today, the tone of the language used seems rather insipid. Where is the modern equivalent of "The enemy have left the spoils and fled before the conquering hosts"?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 18:48:05 GMT
I think the below is the key point, with the tories on around 25%, in a General election who will pick up the rest?
Certainly in England it will be Labour or LibDems and I strongly suspect tactical ABT voting will make an even bigger impact
Then you have Reform nibbling largely away at the tory vote
Things can change, but on these results it looks dire for the tories
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 18:51:06 GMT
While the Tory defeats that many have written on here today, the tone of the language used seems rather insipid. Where is the modern equivalent of "The enemy have left the spoils and fled before the conquering hosts"? The problem is that the psephological experts are very keen to tell us that it is all an illusion and we shouldn't get excited about anything. I am wondering if they wrote their scripts in advance of the actual results. |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 18:54:43 GMT
That is now over 1000 councillors without skin in the game to go out and campaign for a Party come General Election time which has left them high and dry. All the hand wringing in the world about the loss of "our fantastic local councillors" will not be enough to encourage them and their families back out on the stump. It can be a very lonely and miserable experience losing an election and no hint that the Conservatives have learnt a single lesson. Just who will be left to run the local associations, raise money, keep the party in the local news and organise an election? It is not like people are really committed to the "principles of the new Conservative Party" like they are to green issues or socialism is it?
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 18:58:29 GMT
I think the below is the key point, with the tories on around 25%, in a General election who will pick up the rest? Certainly in England it will be Labour or LibDems and I strongly suspect tactical ABT voting will make an even bigger impact Then you have Reform nibbling largely away at the tory vote Things can change, but on these results it looks dire for the tories I know that Labour always stand in every GB seat at a General Election, but I think that the Lib Dems, Green Party (E&W) and Plaid Cymru should revisit their 2019 election pact. As far as Labour is concerned all the other opposition parties need is for them to soft-pedal their campaigns in seats where another party is better placed to beat the Tories (so not a pact between Starmer and Davey, but an informal understanding like between Blair and Ashdown). |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 5, 2023 19:04:32 GMT
I think the below is the key point, with the tories on around 25%, in a General election who will pick up the rest? Certainly in England it will be Labour or LibDems and I strongly suspect tactical ABT voting will make an even bigger impact Then you have Reform nibbling largely away at the tory vote Things can change, but on these results it looks dire for the tories I know that Labour always stand in every GB seat at a General Election, but I think that the Lib Dems, Green Party (E&W) and Plaid Cymru should revisit their 2019 election pact. As far as Labour is concerned all the other opposition parties need is for them to soft-pedal their campaigns in seats where another party is better placed to beat the Tories (so not a pact between Starmer and Davey, but an informal understanding like between Blair and Ashdown). |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 19:15:12 GMT
I know that Labour always stand in every GB seat at a General Election, but I think that the Lib Dems, Green Party (E&W) and Plaid Cymru should revisit their 2019 election pact. As far as Labour is concerned all the other opposition parties need is for them to soft-pedal their campaigns in seats where another party is better placed to beat the Tories (so not a pact between Starmer and Davey, but an informal understanding like between Blair and Ashdown). What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990 |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 19:20:44 GMT
Big Labour losses and Tory gains in Leicester. Is this connected with attitudes to the Modi regime in different communities?
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 19:23:10 GMT
I’ve enjoyed today. 🙂 Lovely walk from Porthcurno up the cliffs to the Logan Rock pub, an absolute gem, for din-dins and a pint of Rattler cider. Yum yum. Then onto Lamorna where we are staying. 9 miles of loveliness but do you know what, I was looking forward to coming on here and catching up. Anyway, ABT. These elections have given people who want this lot out so much direction as to who to who to vote for to remove/ thwart the Tories come the GE. I wonder if this will be something Tory HQ will be particularly nervous about in the aftermath of their rout. Porthcurno, lovely place. I've been to the Telegraph (that's cable not the newspaper) Museum there. Not been there for years - the outdoors is just too beautiful to keep away from. Every time, today included, I walk past that little hut near the beach, no bigger than a garden shed, I am in awe that it was once, the world’s biggest communications hub. Once saw film that I’ve looked for since and never found online. It was of the flame throwers at the top of the beach that would have been activated had the nazis tried to take the comms site. The flames went down half the length of the beach. Absolutely terrifying. Don’t tell Braverman about them. Back to today - not one to get carried away but today does feel important. If nothing else the narrative changes/ embeds. If the likes of Andrew Neil was to crack on about poor Labour polling, then he’d look ridiculous. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 19:23:30 GMT
What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990Getting Tories (and their Tory-light other halves in what used to be the Labour Party) out of office for ever by securing another Indyref, of course |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 19:27:52 GMT
You mean like the informal understanding between Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton? What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990We’ll see, but getting rid of the Tories after 14 or 15 years, only for the SNP to help reinstate them, doesn’t sound like something that will go down with the average SNP voter. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 19:32:07 GMT
Big Labour losses and Tory gains in Leicester. Is this connected with attitudes to the Modi regime in different communities? To be fair Labour did start with 53 out of 54 seats, so the only way was down. But yes, South Asian religious politics was one factor. Also the Leicester Labour Council and Mayor have had local issues. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 19:33:48 GMT
You are talking about a minority Labour administration, probably with 35% oof the popular vote and 25% oof the Scottish vote. A minority administration, if it wants the support of the other minority parties needs to offer them something in exchange. The right of the Scottish Parliament, to decide if and when it wants a referendum on independence doesn't seem a lot to ask for. If Labour would deny that democratically valid request in return for support then I would argue Labour would be letting the Tories in by a failure to work with the other parties.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 19:34:32 GMT
You mean like the informal understanding between Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton? What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990Playing games is always more important for the SNP, given they only care about independence. Remember that they loathe the Labour Party (and vice versa) - they are competition for a lot of the same seats. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 19:37:54 GMT
What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990We’ll see, but getting rid of the Tories after 14 or 15 years, only for the SNP to help reinstate them, doesn’t sound like something that will go down with the average SNP voter. The SNP helped the Tories to get elections at times of their choosing in 1979 and 2019. Every reason to think they would do so again. The SNP exists to get Scottish independence, not to prop up UK Labour governments. |
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2023 19:38:39 GMT
Her governments reduced the basic rate of Income Tax from 33% to around 21%. This was most beneficial to lower earners. Not with you there mate...If you are such a low earner you do not pay tax at all then this didnt help you. If you earned enough to reach to somewhere in the basic rate range but not beyond then you gained less than someone earning more and paying also at a higher rate. What is guaranteed is the hghest earners got the maximum benefit, others less. Said houses now belong to investment owners who charge 'market rents' based upon the full hugely inflated value of those homes. Whereas under council ownership rents were based upon construction costs, which were massively less. Although the first owners probably got a free gift of cash, the houses then went into the general market. Or else they are now only available at full market price for sale, not rent. I know quite a few people who saw this as part of a great investment opportunity to buy still cheap homes in poorly rated areas which have since morphed into middle class neighbourhoods. So basically, the first owners got a big bribe but ever since any investment profits have accrued to the rich. These must by now be a lot bigger for the rich than the original free gifts to the poor. It has also removed competition from the rental market, meaning anyone in the private sector rental business, ie people with the capital to do so, has been able to push up rents and so their profits. It has been a brilliant scheme to shift wealth from the poor to the rich. However once again those shares are now almost all in the hands of major investors. sure the public got a free gift of shares, but then private sector bought up those companies and has run them for profit and not public good. Its not quite what you are talking about, but a recent stat said the water companies now have debts of £50 bn, starting from none, which have basically been run up to pay dividends to shareholders. You've changed tack. You originally said that Thatcher's governments favoured the wealthy at the expense of the poor. You now seem to be largely agreeing with me e.g. "Although the first owners probably got a free gift of cash,..". You are now making a different argument that 40 years later some of the policies have had unexpected consequences in your opinion. That could make for an endless debate as per your ongoing Covid spat with alec. I am not interested in getting involved in something like that. alec I have to admit to skipping past almost all of the never-ending Covid debate, but is this what danny does in that - keep changing the ground? |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 19:41:54 GMT
You are talking about a minority Labour administration, probably with 35% oof the popular vote and 25% oof the Scottish vote. A minority administration, if it wants the support of the other minority parties needs to offer them something in exchange. The right of the Scottish Parliament, to decide if and when it wants a referendum on independence doesn't seem a lot to ask for. If Labour would deny that democratically valid request in return for support then I would argue Labour would be letting the Tories in by a failure to work with the other parties. Labour can now reasonably think in terms of circa 35% of the vote in Scotland. I would not now dismiss the possibility of it becoming the largest party there in 2024. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 19:46:59 GMT
Labour can now reasonably think in terms of circa 35% of the vote in Scotland. I would not now dismiss the possibility of it becoming the largest party there in 2024. If Labour is the largest party then there would be no referendum, as the Scottish Parliament would not want one, so there should be no problem in giving the Parliament the power to hold one if there is a democratic majority in Scotland elected on the basis of a commitment to have one. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 19:58:09 GMT
Labour can now reasonably think in terms of circa 35% of the vote in Scotland. I would not now dismiss the possibility of it becoming the largest party there in 2024. If Labour is the largest party then there would be no referendum, as the Scottish Parliament would not want one, so there should be no problem in giving the Parliament the power to hold one if there is a democratic majority in Scotland elected on the basis of a commitment to have one. That should always have been the case, really. But Starmer won't do it because he's being guided by those too blind to the reality that Scotland will become independent in time anyway. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 5, 2023 19:59:16 GMT
You mean like the informal understanding between Sarwar, Ross and Cole-Hamilton? What is more important, getting the Tories out of office for a long time, or playing games like the new SNP leader threatening to vote a Labour minority government down? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65503990
Those who genuinely want the Tories out, and aren't just obsessed with their own lot having total power, know that it doesn't matter which "progressive" party wins these silly FPTP elections - as long as a Tory doesn't. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 5, 2023 20:07:14 GMT
You are talking about a minority Labour administration, probably with 35% oof the popular vote and 25% oof the Scottish vote. A minority administration, if it wants the support of the other minority parties needs to offer them something in exchange. The right of the Scottish Parliament, to decide if and when it wants a referendum on independence doesn't seem a lot to ask for. If Labour would deny that democratically valid request in return for support then I would argue Labour would be letting the Tories in by a failure to work with the other parties. Labour can now reasonably think in terms of circa 35% of the vote in Scotland. I would not now dismiss the possibility of it becoming the largest party there in 2024. It's possible - and simultaneously fairly meaningless in terms of Scottish politics, since Westminster pays little attention to Scots MPs. 2026 would be more interesting. |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on May 5, 2023 20:09:33 GMT
We’ll see, but getting rid of the Tories after 14 or 15 years, only for the SNP to help reinstate them, doesn’t sound like something that will go down with the average SNP voter. The SNP helped the Tories to get elections at times of their choosing in 1979 and 2019. Every reason to think they would do so again. The SNP exists to get Scottish independence, not to prop up UK Labour governments. Of course. And for what it’s worth, I hope they get their way one day, whenever that is, if that is the will of voters north of the border. Just wondering how the average SNP voter would react if after finally getting rid of the Tories after 14 or 15 years, the SNP voted with them on a regular basis/ all the time. |
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Post by jib on May 5, 2023 20:13:50 GMT
An interesting set of results.
Real progress for Labour and the Greens. Well done.
The platform is built for 2024. More tomorrow, take care.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 5, 2023 20:19:48 GMT
An interesting set of results. Real progress for Labour and the Greens. Well done. The platform is built for 2024. More tomorrow, take care. There was real progress for another party as well wasn't there? Go on you can say it! |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 20:21:10 GMT
The SNP helped the Tories to get elections at times of their choosing in 1979 and 2019. Every reason to think they would do so again. The SNP exists to get Scottish independence, not to prop up UK Labour governments. Of course. And for what it’s worth, I hope they get their way one day, whenever that is, if that is the will of voters north of the border. Just wondering how the average SNP voter would react if after finally getting rid of the Tories after 14 or 15 years, the SNP voted with them on a regular basis/ all the time. What Tory policies would the SNP support? None, is my guess On the other hand Labour is supporting the Tory policy to deny Scotland the democratic right to hold a referendum on its future even if the Scottish people vote by a majority for parties with that as a manifesto commitment. Labour is also supporting the retention of tuition fees (Tory policy), prescription charges (Tory Policy) and cutting the top rate of tax by 2p for the richer people in Scotland (as they are supporting the Tory policy by not committing to raise the higher tax rates presumably they want the same rate to apply in Scotland) |
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