pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 16:03:03 GMT
As I write the number of Conservative losses is 666, which sounds a bit ominous for Sunak!
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Post by thylacine on May 5, 2023 16:16:50 GMT
Actual real time footage of video call between Johnson and Sunak.  |
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Post by James E on May 5, 2023 16:16:56 GMT
As I write the number of Conservative losses is 666, which sounds a bit ominous for Sunak! Now 741 losses. That's 75 gone in 15 minutes. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,624
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 16:17:57 GMT
Now 743!
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 16:20:06 GMT
As I write the number of Conservative losses is 666, which sounds a bit ominous for Sunak! Now 741 losses. That's 75 gone in 15 minutes. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 16:23:52 GMT
Hmm. Curtis arguing its the cons falling back, not labour increasing its support.
Now another pundit arguing that lab has done best in the red wall/brexit inclined seats. In other words, recovering in some traditionally labour areas.
Whereas libs have done better in more traditionally conservative areas. Their best performance since going into coalition government. A slow but steady recovery of support from that disaster.
So its a two pronged attack with the libs being the acceptable alternative in tory areas, and lab in the traditionally more socialist areas.
If lab is falling over backwards to appeal to disenchanted conservatives by adopting right wing policies, it isnt succeeding. What it mostly seems to be doing is not being very appealing to anyone except for not being con.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 16:26:02 GMT
Various Tory talking heads bemoaning the loss of "hard working Tories" so presumably not a problem that the bone idle ones have got the boot.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 16:27:43 GMT
Hmm. Curtis arguing its the cons falling back, not labour increasing its support. Now another pundit arguing that lab has done best in the red wall/brexit inclined seats. In other words, recovering in some traditionally labour areas. Whereas libs have done better in more traditionally conservative areas. Their best performance since going into coalition government. A slow but steady recovery of support from that disaster. So its a two pronged attack with the libs being the acceptable alternative in tory areas, and lab in the traditionally more socialist areas. If lab is falling over backwards to appeal to disenchanted conservatives by adopting right wing policies, it isnt succeeding. What it mostly seems to be doing is not being very appealing to anyone except for not being con. You'll upset oldnat by calling him Curtis  |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,624
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 16:29:15 GMT
And losses up to 782 looks like the very worse end of expectation now in site. Lib dems at +270 look like exceeding even the most optimistic prediction. Where are you jib I miss your take on this😂 |
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Post by norfolkandgood on May 5, 2023 16:29:55 GMT
A bit of excitement in Great Yarmouth reported - recount in final ward. Current position 18 con, 17 lab, 2 ind.
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Post by laszlo4new on May 5, 2023 16:30:10 GMT
As I write the number of Conservative losses is 666, which sounds a bit ominous for Sunak! But as Engels publicised the result of earlier research, it is 616. It was a mistranslation. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 16:30:22 GMT
East Herts went to the Greens as largest party and incredibly in last 2 wards after 4 recounts candidates were separated by only ONE vote! Is it wrong of me to hope that somewhere in East Herts there is a Victor Meldrew look a likey Tory ,who forgot to take his photo ID to the the polling station yesterday, muttering madly and repeatedly "I don't believe It". Plenty of Victor Meldrew types in East Herts. I very much doubt they forgot their ID (many will have voted by post) but quite a few of them who vote CON in GEs would have gone for the more NIMBY option in the LE (ie Green). Folks not happy with CON's district plan that: "..will aim to provide new homes, new jobs, new facilities and infrastructure across the District"**Voted best place to live in GB* (by one company, once) and a lot of the locals very keen to keep it that way and Green-NIMBYism promises no new homes***, no new jobs, no new facilities just more trees and flowers - just the kind of thing Victor Meldrew look a likey Tories want after the Blue Tories promised new homes, jobs, facilities and infrastructure across the district. * web.archive.org/web/20201128023614/https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/media/press-releases/halifax/2020/halifax-quality-of-life-2020/halifax-quality-of-life-survey-2020.pdf** www.eastherts.gov.uk/planning-building/planning-policy/east-herts-district-plan-2018*** Obviously they don't specifically say that on their website but "coming soon" means they could say they'll rip up the district plan for new houses when campaigning on the doorstep. TBC what they actually do now but my inspired guess would be: blame central govt for lack of money to build "Environmentally friendly affordable housing" means they can block all housing - until the big builders win on appeal and East Herts learn the same mistake as 'others' the hard way (ie even more of the "wrong houses in the wrong places" 🤦 ) eastherts.greenparty.org.uk/housing/PS Although some folks seem to want to keep learning the lesson of "no plan" and sticking with their local Arch-NIMBY group that has effectively given decision making power to central govt (who back the big builders "wrong houses in the wrong places" projects) 🤦: www.uttlesford.gov.uk/article/8431/Election-of-district-councillors-on-Thursday-4-May-2023 |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 16:32:52 GMT
Just a word on Maldon, another area that I know well. Years passed where the only representation was lots of Conservatives and a tiny handful of 3 or 4 Independents as the opposition. Then there was an Independent surge, which didn't end well, but still no sign of a proper opposition.
Today the Conservatives have lost 7 of their remaining seats and been reduced to just 10. 6 Liberal Democrats and 1 Labour have been elected (14 Independents make up the rest of the Council). It seems real politics has finally arrived in Maldon.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 16:35:19 GMT
As I write the number of Conservative losses is 666, which sounds a bit ominous for Sunak! But as Engels publicised the result of earlier research, it is 616. It was a mistranslation. I thought someone would point that out, but I wasn't expecting Engels. |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 16:36:23 GMT
Just a word on Maldon, another area that I know well. Years passed where the only representation was lots of Conservatives and a tiny handful of 3 or 4 Independents as the opposition. Then there was an Independent surge, which didn't end well, but still no sign of a proper opposition. Today the Conservatives have lost 7 of their remaining seats and been reduced to just 10. 6 Liberal Democrats and 1 Labour have been elected (14 Independents make up the rest of the Council). It seems real politics has finally arrived in Maldon. Back in the 1950s and 60s the Maldon seat was a Tory/Labour marginal at GEs! |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 16:40:29 GMT
Final result from Mole Valley - Lib Dem 30 Ind 6 Con 2.
The total Lib Dem vote was more than 50% greater than the Con vote.
The sitting Con MP has a majority of 14,000 - but I'm more convinced than ever he'll be kicked out next year.
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 16:44:54 GMT
I wonder what the classic waiverer will make of this round of local election results? When I say waiverer, I mean the sort on non-aligned, floating voter who likes to back the winner in elections. The sort of character who tells pollsters that he/she voted for the winning side in the previous election, even when they didn't.
These voters, more than others more laden with hardened political.opinions, notice when parties are winning and when they're losing.
Looks like the Tories are a spent force, they might say today. That Labour horse looks the best bet now. A spring in the step and looking full of beans in the paddock. The old nag, however, looks set for the knackers yard
An oft overlooked voting determinant probably not much appreciated on this rarefied forum. My punts on the likely winner say quite a few.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 16:45:45 GMT
Tories now at 800 net losses according the BBC; still time to get it into four figures.
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 16:46:21 GMT
Final result from Mole Valley - Lib Dem 30 Ind 6 Con 2. The total Lib Dem vote was more than 50% greater than the Con vote. The sitting Con MP has a majority of 14,000 - but I'm more convinced than ever he'll be kicked out next year. It is a mistake to take local election results too literally. In May 1968 the Tories swept most of the seats in Hackney - but were not at all competitive there at the 1970 GE. |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 16:48:14 GMT
Final result from Mole Valley - Lib Dem 30 Ind 6 Con 2. The total Lib Dem vote was more than 50% greater than the Con vote. The sitting Con MP has a majority of 14,000 - but I'm more convinced than ever he'll be kicked out next year. It is a mistake to take local election results too literally. In May 1968 the Tories swept most of the seats in Hackney - but were not at all competitive there at the 1970 GE. Would you like a small wager on that? |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 16:50:42 GMT
It is a mistake to take local election results too literally. In May 1968 the Tories swept most of the seats in Hackney - but were not at all competitive there at the 1970 GE. Would you like a small wager on that? No - but I have a very good memory and can think of so many other examples stretching back over 50 years. |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 17:02:24 GMT
Greens biggest party on Lewes council and now a Tory free zone. It's a lovely place Lewes with lots of character and dinky independent shops, quaint pubs, a castle and a fan owned football club which has the same budget for the mens and womens teams and the playing surface in a huge valley which is quite unique to any football ground I've ever seen (certainly one for @crossbat groundhopping if he's never been). Also their famous bonfire night with the burning effigies. I was always a little surprised how well the Tories did here but perhaps it is a relatively wealthy place even if many have a different outlook on life.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 17:02:46 GMT
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,366
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:03:08 GMT
Tories now at minus 838 Councillors
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 17:06:17 GMT
Just a word on Maldon, another area that I know well. Years passed where the only representation was lots of Conservatives and a tiny handful of 3 or 4 Independents as the opposition. Then there was an Independent surge, which didn't end well, but still no sign of a proper opposition. Today the Conservatives have lost 7 of their remaining seats and been reduced to just 10. 6 Liberal Democrats and 1 Labour have been elected (14 Independents make up the rest of the Council). It seems real politics has finally arrived in Maldon. Back in the 1950s and 60s the Maldon seat was a Tory/Labour marginal at GEs! That included Braintree and Witham, which was where most of the Labour vote came from. There is a Driberg road in Braintree not far from me. The District Council area is just the Maldon area and the Dengie Peninsula. |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 17:09:18 GMT
Would you like a small wager on that? No - but I have a very good memory and can think of so many other examples stretching back over 50 years. The result in Mole Valley is not a sudden, one-off protest, it's the continuation of an ongoing trend over the last 10 years. It's a soft, Remain area , but a lot of people voted Tory for Boris last time because they just wanted Brexit to go away. They've seen how things turned out and will not forgive the incompetence on that and so many other issues that they've seen. Just IMHO of course (and my neighbours). |
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2023 17:10:02 GMT
Also beware "correlations". Lots of ways to spin the fairly narrow range in LABs % within the usual bar chart analysis. More young people have degrees these days correlates with a/ more young people being ABCON b/ areas where it is often difficult to get affordable housing c/ even correlates with Brexit, for those still obsessed with that ? Have to say, conservative USP under Thatcher was to favour the middle class and wealthy at the expense of the working class. I won't even attempt to read the rest of your essay when the first sentence is so blatantly untrue. Her governments reduced the basic rate of Income Tax from 33% to around 21%. This was most beneficial to lower earners. Also, council house tenants all over the country and not just Birmingham were allowed to buy their council houses at a knock-down price. When the bloated and inefficient nationalised industries were sold off, they made sure that everyone had the ability to buy shares, not just the wealthy or pension funds. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 17:13:11 GMT
Greens biggest party on Lewes council and now a Tory free zone. It's a lovely place Lewes with lots of character and dinky independent shops, quaint pubs, a castle and a fan owned football club which has the same budget for the mens and womens teams and the playing surface in a huge valley which is quite unique to any football ground I've ever seen (certainly one for @crossbat groundhopping if he's never been). Also their famous bonfire night with the burning effigies. I was always a little surprised how well the Tories did here but perhaps it is a relatively wealthy place even if many have a different outlook on life. The change on the Sussex coast started in Brighton, spread to Hove, then Worthing (a Labour Council!), Adur and now Lewes. It has something to do with people moving out of London due to housing costs I suspect. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,366
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 17:17:37 GMT
Greens biggest party on Lewes council and now a Tory free zone. It's a lovely place Lewes with lots of character and dinky independent shops, quaint pubs, a castle and a fan owned football club which has the same budget for the mens and womens teams and the playing surface in a huge valley which is quite unique to any football ground I've ever seen (certainly one for @crossbat groundhopping if he's never been). Also their famous bonfire night with the burning effigies. I was always a little surprised how well the Tories did here but perhaps it is a relatively wealthy place even if many have a different outlook on life. The change on the Sussex coast started in Brighton, spread to Hove, then Worthing (a Labour Council!), Adur and now Lewes. It has something to do with people moving out of London due to housing costs I suspect. Surely it started in Hastings 😀 |
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 17:20:31 GMT
Greens biggest party on Lewes council and now a Tory free zone. It's a lovely place Lewes with lots of character and dinky independent shops, quaint pubs, a castle and a fan owned football club which has the same budget for the mens and womens teams and the playing surface in a huge valley which is quite unique to any football ground I've ever seen (certainly one for @crossbat groundhopping if he's never been). Also their famous bonfire night with the burning effigies. I was always a little surprised how well the Tories did here but perhaps it is a relatively wealthy place even if many have a different outlook on life. The change on the Sussex coast started in Brighton, spread to Hove, then Worthing (a Labour Council!), Adur and now Lewes. It has something to do with people moving out of London due to housing costs I suspect. A 'Green sea-wall' perhaps? |
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