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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 14:44:41 GMT
Labour on just 19 more gains than LD and Greens together. Surprised how little attention in the media is being paid to the surge in Green Party councillors Big increase but total numbers of Green councillors is still low compared to other parties. Per BBC as I write: 1,406 Labour, 1,073 Con, 773 Lib Dem, 185 Green. Agreed, though they are about to take Mid-Suffolk - having power at local level will begin to give them experienced politicians to draw upon and the same argument as LDs about power bases to build electoral success at Westminster elections. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:47:18 GMT
So I said earlier I was interested in Bracknell Forest and whether the anti-Tory coalition worked. Here is the result:
Labour 22 (+18)
Conservative 10 (-27)
Lib Dem 7 (+7)
Green 2 (+2)
Wow!
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 14:48:25 GMT
grahamThe liberal democrats have a tradition of building on local election success, locally in St Albans and Chesham and Amersham they won the local council before winning the parliamentary seats. These figures indicate particularly because of the targeted success against Tories in target parliamentary seats that 40+ is entirely possible 20 would be at the low end of expectation.
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Post by EmCat on May 5, 2023 14:49:37 GMT
You have one group of MPs arguoing that they need to dial down the far right anti-migrant, anti-human rights rhetoric, go for fiscal responsibility etc, while you have the other claiming all out war on small boats and mindless slashing of regulations and tax is just what's needed. More mainstream, a councillor was arguing that it was government quotas forcing them to build new houses which sank them. Whereas its likely that overall its the shortage of houses which has been sinking con chances. It's possible the two can be true at the same time. The NIMBY faction won't be pleased with the council building more houses, so will be put off voting for them. And then those considering voting for them, but who are struggling to find somewhere affordable to live, will also be disinclined to vote for them if the houses are still "under construction" rather than "ready to be lived in" |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:49:58 GMT
Big increase but total numbers of Green councillors is still low compared to other parties. Per BBC as I write: 1,406 Labour, 1,073 Con, 773 Lib Dem, 185 Green. Agreed, though they are about to take Mid-Suffolk - having power at local level will begin to give them experienced politicians to draw upon and the same argument as LDs about power bases to build electoral success at Westminster elections. Agreed, but I was offering it as an explanation for why the media take less interest. If they start running Councils they will get more publicity - although the previous attempt at a minority Green administration in Brighton ended badly. |
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Post by James E on May 5, 2023 14:50:48 GMT
If Labour's Net Equivalent vote is 35%, then that's 9 points below their current polling average of 44%.
This is not unprecedented. Labour's NEV was 10% below the polls in 2013, when they recorded 29% against poll-ratings of 39%. And as I mentioned earlier today, Labour's NEV was 9% below the polls in 1995 and 10% below in 1996. The pattern is that the higher Labour are polling, the wider the difference to English Local Election results. And the average, across good and bad years, is around 4-5% below.
Nevertheless, 35% is a bit disappointing. I had expected around 37%, as per the Omnisis LE poll a few days ago.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:54:24 GMT
So I said earlier I was interested in Bracknell Forest and whether the anti-Tory coalition worked. Here is the result: Labour 22 (+18) Conservative 10 (-27) Lib Dem 7 (+7) Green 2 (+2) Wow! One wonders if the idea will penetrate the brains of Starmer, Davey and the Green leadership, that not running candidates against each other pays dividends? Nope, thought not. |
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 14:54:26 GMT
So I said earlier I was interested in Bracknell Forest and whether the anti-Tory coalition worked. Here is the result: Labour 22 (+18) Conservative 10 (-27) Lib Dem 7 (+7) Green 2 (+2) Wow! That is impressive as Labour only had 4 to start with |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 14:54:48 GMT
As you were, folks. Sheffield has finished counting and almost nothing has changed. Lab and Green have swapped places in two seats; the Council will continue to be run by a Lab-Grn coalition. Given the Council's performance it's perhaps surprising the LDs didn't make gains, but presumably I'm not alone in thinking that they would just find different ways to cock things up. I've been closely involved with a local service and the experience left me in no doubt that the less power the elected, but ignorant Cabinet member for that service had to interfere with the work of the Director and her team, the better. As permanent employees they were the ones with expertise, experience and commitment to keeping up with innovations in the field. Needless to say, I've never seen a single mention of the services covered by that directorate in local election material and coverage on local media is invariably apolitical. All of which is a long-winded way of saying that I'm somewhat cynical about local democracy. I'm not sure what the solution is - much greater transparency about political decision-making might help. On the whole I tend to think that much more power should be devolved to local level and that more powerful local and regional governments would attract better candidates and greater scrutiny. In England we seem to be missing a layer of government (don't get me started on why the mayoralties aren't the right way to tackle this). |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:57:49 GMT
If Labour's Net Equivalent vote is 35%, then that's 9 points below their current polling average of 44%. This is not unprecedented. Labour's NEV was also 9% below the polls in 2012, when they recorded 29% against poll-ratings of 39%. And as I mentioned earlier today, Labour's NEV was 9% below the polls in 1995 and 10% below in 1996. The pattern is that the higher Labour are polling, the wider the difference to English Local Election results. Nevertheless, 35% is a bit disappointing. I had expected around 37%, as per the Omnisis LE poll a few days ago. That is the BBC one (and I think they should have waited for more results). Will be interesting to see the other. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:59:49 GMT
So I said earlier I was interested in Bracknell Forest and whether the anti-Tory coalition worked. Here is the result: Labour 22 (+18) Conservative 10 (-27) Lib Dem 7 (+7) Green 2 (+2) Wow! That is impressive as Labour only had 4 to start with The key bit is the Conservatives losing 27 out of 37 seats because they only faced a single opposition party in most cases. I am going to dig into the results and look at the efficiency of this. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 15:04:46 GMT
Agreed, but I was offering it as an explanation for why the media take less interest. If they start running Councils they will get more publicity - although the previous attempt at a minority Green administration in Brighton ended badly. Yes, that's valid, though if that is the case I think they are wrong - it looks like a significant shift to me, given the changed view internationally of climate issues, particularly amongst younger people. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 15:08:01 GMT
Well talks of hung parliaments etc makes for better copy - but I would be very surprised if in the next GE the Tories only got 25-26%, that the LDs will get 20% or the Greens get more than 3% and with a 10% lead over the Tories that Lab would not have an overall majority.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 15:11:21 GMT
Greens doing well but for those who think they are ABCON then I'll pick an example of where they could, incorrectly in this case (IMO), be called 'CON enablers'*: www.braintree.gov.uk/voting-elections/2023-District-council-election-results#6Unlike in one Hemel Hempstead ward where LDEM were 'CON enablers' then Greens in Braintree West are unlikely to have been 'CON enablers' as Green candidates likely picked up a lot of Arch-NIMBY votes from CON types in this LEs. In a GE it might be different but Greens might decide to engage in more 'voodoo' posters (copying LDEM) and think they have a real chance in a lot more seats after their strong performance in the LEs. At a national level then Greens and CON are very different so any CON who voted Green as 'Arch-NIMBY' in an LE is unlikely to vote Green in a GE. With Starmer-LAB moving to the centre(-right) then could Greens pick up the 'Left' (behind) votes? If they do then "split ABCON" vote is the probable outcome but TBC of course. Those who think a lot of Greens will always end up voting for LAB in a GE can use their 'crystal balls' if they want to. How Greens do in GE'24 "should be interesting" is all I'll say for now. * Unlike the LDEM candidates who were "CON enablers" in Hemel Hempstead then a much higher % of Green voters would have had to back LAB for PJW or the other LAB candidate to have won in Braintree West. Not impossible, but v.unlikely IMO. Hence even if people think Greens are always ABCON then I doubt the Green candidate effected the result in the LE but TBC for a GE. As always folks can use Electoral Calculus to look at any specific ward results against EC's "GE prediction". Although it has been noted RUK didn't stand many candidates so who knows what will happen to their 'predicted' votes in a GE. RUK "should be interesting" as well and Rishi-CON can certainly help make their own fate WRT to giving RUK a "raison d'être" (or not) into GE'24. EG www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Braintree |
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Post by mandolinist on May 5, 2023 15:11:59 GMT
The other group which disapears in a General Election is the Independents of various and myriad hues. At the moment they hold more seats than the Greens. All available for redistribution elsewhere.
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Post by thylacine on May 5, 2023 15:14:37 GMT
Prof Curtice on BBC News live blog: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-65147839The BBC is projecting that if all of Britain had the chance to vote in local elections today - and had behaved in the same way as those who did - the share of the vote for each party would be as follows: Conservative - 26% Labour - 35% Liberal Democrats - 20% Others - 19% The nine-point lead that Labour is projected to have over the Conservatives is the largest lead that the Labour party have recorded on our measure since losing power in 2010. EDIT neilj got in just ahead of me with the same information on Twitter Too early for the projected share IMO - loads of results still to come. For example Tories apparently doing very well in Slough. Best wait until all the evidence is in. Yes the Slough result nearly made me choke on the afternoon cuppa. On checking there are special local circumstances with serious local competency issues around the previous labour administration which explain the anomaly. |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 15:15:10 GMT
graham The liberal democrats have a tradition of building on local election success, locally in St Albans and Chesham and Amersham they won the local council before winning the parliamentary seats. These figures indicate particularly because of the targeted success against Tories in target parliamentary seats that 40+ is entirely possible 20 would be at the low end of expectation. I am not suggesting that it never happens - but it is not the norm. LDs have long dominated local elections in Watford but are not serious contenders for the parliamentary seat. Islington was once LD controlled - I believe - but that success was not repeated at a GE. Going back to the Liberal surge under Thorpe in the early 1970s. the Liberals swept Liverpool in the 1973 Local Elections - organised by Trevor Jones 'Jones the vote' - and that led to confident predictions of Liberal gains there at the following GE. Yet at the February 1974 GE they failed to win a single seat. It was a similar story in parts of Leeds. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 15:16:38 GMT
Labour on just 19 more gains than LD and Greens together. Surprised how little attention in the media is being paid to the surge in Green Party councillors Big increase but total numbers of Green councillors is still low compared to other parties. Per BBC as I write: 1,406 Labour, 1,073 Con, 773 Lib Dem, 185 Green. % Councillor change for Greens dramatic though :- Lab + 22% Con -29% LD +27% Green + 110% |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 15:19:48 GMT
If Labour's Net Equivalent vote is 35%, then that's 9 points below their current polling average of 44%. This is not unprecedented. Labour's NEV was 10% below the polls in 2012, when they recorded 29% against poll-ratings of 39%. And as I mentioned earlier today, Labour's NEV was 9% below the polls in 1995 and 10% below in 1996. The pattern is that the higher Labour are polling, the wider the difference to English Local Election results. And the average, across good and bad years, is around 4-5% below. Nevertheless, 35% is a bit disappointing. I had expected around 37%, as per the Omnisis LE poll a few days ago. Noting the 'If' then 9% would be a bit better than jimjam's prediction and is a 'meh' IMO Just FWIW then very little movement in the bookies (where people can put their money where their mouth is). Implied probability of a LAB majority did drop a smidge below 50% a while back when CON were narrowing the gap in the polls but moved back to a smidge above 50% BEFORE the LE results started to come out and hasn't moved today (ie LE results a 'meh' from punters) www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195 |
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Post by Rafwan on May 5, 2023 15:20:37 GMT
Is NEV an invention of this august body, or does it have some wider currency? I am hoping to find someone I can quietly ask how it is calculated, before I embarrass myself (again) on this board.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 15:22:11 GMT
Su Knackered has been claiming that his small boats policy has widespread public support if this was true the Tories must have done well in Dover.It would appear Labour have won it!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 15:30:29 GMT
More on Bracknell Forest. Firstly votes into seats:
Con 45% of vote - 24% of seats
Lab 32% of vote - 54% of seats
LD 16% of vote - 17% of seats
Green 6% of vote - 5% of seats
So 54% of the vote for the anti-Tory coalition turned into 76% of the seats. Any Conservative feeling hard done by should remember that they are the ones who exclusively favour FPTP.
Labour had the best record - in the 8 wards (22 seats) that they were given a clear run they won all 22 Councillors.
The Greens won 2 seats in the ward where they had a clear run but failed to field a third candidate and so allowed a Tory in.
In two of the Lib Dem wards (5 seats) they swept the board, but in the other two they only won one seat in each, and two Tories were elected in each.
In the ward where Labour and the Greens opposed each other two Conservatives were elected, but their votes exceeded the combined Labour + Green, so would have happened anyway.
Finally, in the ward with a joint Green/Lib Dem slate, the Conservatives won the 3 seats.
It is fair to say that it looks like the Greens and Lib Dems got the more naturally Tory areas. However, it still worked for them as they have 2 and 7 Councillors respectively compared to none.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 15:32:08 GMT
Not sure if already posted but back to GE polling: ? LAB+LDEM is unchanged but let Sir Ed Davey have his day in the sun  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 15:36:59 GMT
I would have thought the lib dems vote today makes that Omnisis projection look a tad ridiculous.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 15:37:02 GMT
Is NEV an invention of this august body, or does it have some wider currency? I am hoping to find someone I can quietly ask how it is calculated, before I embarrass myself (again) on this board. National equivalent vote is a real thing. Basically involves looking at the types of seats contested (as they vary for each local electoral cycle) and the performance of the parties therein, then adjusting to what the vote would have been if the whole of Britain had voted (although in this case there is some uncertainty about the Scottish dimension). There are two versions - one done by the BBC and the other by Michael Thrasher (and Colin Rallings in the past, although not sure he is still involved). It is IMO a number open to so many variables - especially the large Independent vote - as to be interesting but unreliable. |
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Post by thylacine on May 5, 2023 15:40:45 GMT
East Herts went to the Greens as largest party and incredibly in last 2 wards after 4 recounts candidates were separated by only ONE vote! Is it wrong of me to hope that somewhere in East Herts there is a Victor Meldrew look a likey Tory ,who forgot to take his photo ID to the the polling station yesterday, muttering madly and repeatedly "I don't believe It".
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 15:48:03 GMT
Since Braintree got a mention above, I will simply clarify a point of detail. The presence of a Green candidate in Braintree West made no difference to the result in that ward. If you want an example of where Green and Labour got in each other's way Witham North would be a better case.
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Post by Rafwan on May 5, 2023 15:51:07 GMT
pjw1961Cheers. I guess it is based on some impenetrable (at least by me) algorithm(s). I am curious to know how London is accommodated. London leans heavily to Labour at the moment, but it was not always so.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 15:53:01 GMT
Not sure if already posted but back to GE polling: ? LAB+LDEM is unchanged but let Sir Ed Davey have his day in the sun With PeoplePolling no longer polling (since their last poll in March) Omnisis is the outlier, with all the other pollsters clustering around 15% lead. See the house effects for April 2023. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/78050/thread |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 15:58:30 GMT
Before we run out of WOW! potential. Lib Dems gain control of Stratford upon Avon council. First time ever it hasn't been under Tory control. www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-65498758Of course, hilariously, it had a Labour MP once, if only for a few months, when the Tory incumbent defected to Labour. Blair hegemony days when Tony walked on water. Incidentally, a good friend of mine lives in Stratford and he reckons that Zahawi is in real trouble come the General Election. Lib Dems likely to take it. Zahawi has zero personal vote too. Not popular at all. Were you up for Zahawi in 2024, perhaps?? 🤔🤣 |
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