steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 13:42:59 GMT
jibDo you think the electorate might just have forgotten about ex politicians from the minority party in the coalition from a decade ago? It's not often as a lib dem I get to show definitive proof that you are wrong!
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 13:43:17 GMT
Surprised they are still talking on BBC about 1000 Conservative losses - looks more like 850 or so to me Worth noting though that a loss of 850 councillors is still a monstrously bad result for the Tories considering they'd already shed over a thousand of these wards when they were last contested in 2019. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 13:43:45 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion. Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland. No it doesnt nor any gains in Wales On Sky news he specifically said he hasn't considered Scotland or Wales because there were no local elections there this time, but he did say it was plausible Labour could get an overall majority depending on results in those two areas There is also London of course, where Labour are also likely to pick up a few more seats |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 13:46:00 GMT
Analysis of Green gains and losses so far (although their figures are very different from the BBC so whether BBC is tardy or they are assuming gains based on what they know at the count I'm not sure):
HOLD 96
GAIN 117 (79 from CON, 10 from LAB, 4 from LD, 22 from IND)
LOSS 21 (8 to CON, 10 to LAB, 3 from LD, 1 to IND)
Interesting the Lab/Green and Green/LD cancels out and Green gains are basically coming from Tories. Not entirely surprising if Tories haven't turned out but it shows an ABT in play.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 13:50:02 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion. Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland. Isn't this just if these results were replicated at a General Election? Which they won't be as there are a good bit less than 50% of people voting who would vote in a General Election? Yes-but I'm not sure on what basis Thrasher makes the calculation. .....and he's probably a Tory sympathiser too  |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 13:51:30 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion. Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland. No it doesnt nor any gains in Wales On Sky news he specifically said he hasn't considered Scotland or Wales because there were no local elections there this time, but he did say it was plausible Labour could get an overall majority depending on results in those two areas There is also London of course, where Labour are also likely to pick up a few more seats Thanks-you were obviously paying more attention than me . I was eating my lunch & reading the Times . |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 13:56:20 GMT
Darlington Prediction now over: Lab 22 (includes 1 Ind Lab). Con 17 GRN 5 LD 4 Ind 2 Not bad jimjam. I'll remember to add in a factor for your pessimism next time :-) Actual result: Lab 25 Con 14 GRN 7 LD 3 Ind 1 |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 13:57:21 GMT
Surprised they are still talking on BBC about 1000 Conservative losses - looks more like 850 or so to me Worth noting though that a loss of 850 councillors is still a monstrously bad result for the Tories considering they'd already shed over a thousand of these wards when they were last contested in 2019. The BBC scorecard is different from those being used by others and currently has the Tories at -369, whereas the Guardian for example has the Tories at -278. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 13:58:29 GMT
Yeah-absolutely. ABT , but not Labour at any price. But in a GE do punters believe its a two horse race? |
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 14:00:02 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion. Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland. No coalition - minority Lab govt possibly. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 14:01:49 GMT
Some good news for the Tories. In quite a few "red wall" or quasi "red wall" areas, their vote has held up well; such as Dudley and Walsall.
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 14:03:07 GMT
colin I doubt formal coalition but with lib dems now realistically on for 40+ mps confidence and supply entirely possible. The price would be PR. Before jib reaches for his crayons with that projection the lib dems couldn't prop up the Tories even if we wanted to , which we don't. 20 LD seats remains much more likely. LD - and Green - support is very 'easy come easy go' and rarely translates into votes at a GE. Opinion polls likely to prove a better guide for the latter. |
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Post by James E on May 5, 2023 14:03:40 GMT
To me, the relatively low Lab lead over Con is most likely caused by the lack of any real competition on the right. So far, neither RefUK nor any other alternative party on the right was won a single seat, and indeed they do not appear to have contested many. Residents' Assocs have won 17. Contrast this to the 200+ for the Greens.
I don't think the exclusion of London, Scotland and Wales from these elections is a factor, though. This would affect the actual total Labour vote, but not the 'NEV'. Labour's polling success over the past year-or-so has been larger in 'England-outwith-London' than in any of those places.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 14:04:41 GMT
Worth noting though that a loss of 850 councillors is still a monstrously bad result for the Tories considering they'd already shed over a thousand of these wards when they were last contested in 2019. The BBC scorecard is different from those being used by others and currently has the Tories at -369, whereas the Guardian for example has the Tories at -278. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 14:05:23 GMT
Darlington Prediction now over: Lab 22 (includes 1 Ind Lab). Con 17 GRN 5 LD 4 Ind 2 Not bad jimjam. I'll remember to add in a factor for your pessimism next time :-) Actual result: Lab 25 Con 14 GRN 7 LD 3 Ind 1 Almost a political earthquaker there. (Warning: this statement contains football anorak terminology ) |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 14:06:08 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 14:08:10 GMT
To me, the relatively low Lab lead over Con is most likely caused by the lack of any real competition on the right. So far, neither RefUK nor any other party on the right was won a single seat, and indeed they do not appear to have contested many. Residents' Assocs have won 17. Contrast this to the 200+ for the Green. I don't think the exclusion of London, Scotland and Wales from these elections is a factor, though. This would affect the actual total Labour vote, but not the 'NEV'. Labour's polling success has been larger in 'England-outwith-London' than in any of those places. Very good point, James. Suggests to me that the scope for ABT tactical voting at the next GE is almost endless. Reform UK may be much more active too. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 14:13:24 GMT
To me, the relatively low Lab lead over Con is most likely caused by the lack of any real competition on the right. So far, neither RefUK nor any other party on the right was won a single seat, and indeed they do not appear to have contested many. Residents' Assocs have won 17. Contrast this to the 200+ for the Green. I don't think the exclusion of London, Scotland and Wales from these elections is a factor, though. This would affect the actual total Labour vote, but not the 'NEV'. Labour's polling success over the past year-or-so has been larger in 'England-outwith-London' than in any of those places. Almost counterintuitively, this is something that probably benefits Lab in the long run. Lab can't win against the Tories in many suburban, small town and rural areas. The LDs can. Indeed, there doesn't seem to be many places at all where they are battling each other directly for control of a council. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 14:13:31 GMT
Projected share of the vote
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 14:15:10 GMT
Prof Curtice on BBC News live blog: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-65147839The BBC is projecting that if all of Britain had the chance to vote in local elections today - and had behaved in the same way as those who did - the share of the vote for each party would be as follows: Conservative - 26% Labour - 35% Liberal Democrats - 20% Others - 19% The nine-point lead that Labour is projected to have over the Conservatives is the largest lead that the Labour party have recorded on our measure since losing power in 2010. EDIT neilj got in just ahead of me with the same information on Twitter |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 14:16:51 GMT
Projected share of the vote So has Rob Ford also forgotten about Scotland and Wales? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:18:12 GMT
To me, the relatively low Lab lead over Con is most likely caused by the lack of any real competition on the right. So far, neither RefUK nor any other party on the right was won a single seat, and indeed they do not appear to have contested many. Residents' Assocs have won 17. Contrast this to the 200+ for the Green. I don't think the exclusion of London, Scotland and Wales from these elections is a factor, though. This would affect the actual total Labour vote, but not the 'NEV'. Labour's polling success over the past year-or-so has been larger in 'England-outwith-London' than in any of those places. You should be right but for some reason Thrasher has decided to ignore Scotland. Sam Coates (Sky): "Sky election analyst Michael Thrasher says his projection points to Labour being largest party in a hung Parliament. But he stresses the projection tells us nothing about SNP and possible change in Scotland. “It’s a reasonable argument to make that you would cross the line with those SNP seats (if there are enough).”" |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:24:44 GMT
Prof Curtice on BBC News live blog: www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-65147839The BBC is projecting that if all of Britain had the chance to vote in local elections today - and had behaved in the same way as those who did - the share of the vote for each party would be as follows: Conservative - 26% Labour - 35% Liberal Democrats - 20% Others - 19% The nine-point lead that Labour is projected to have over the Conservatives is the largest lead that the Labour party have recorded on our measure since losing power in 2010. EDIT neilj got in just ahead of me with the same information on Twitter Too early for the projected share IMO - loads of results still to come. For example Tories apparently doing very well in Slough. Best wait until all the evidence is in. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 14:27:27 GMT
Projected share of the vote So has Rob Ford also forgotten about Scotland and Wales? Not sure, but the bigger caveat to me is that voters in a national election would behave in the same way as a local election From past elections we know they don't. The Green vote is likely to be squeezed for one and more tactical voting is likely, plus the effect of Reform standing on the tory vote |
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Post by athena on May 5, 2023 14:31:34 GMT
As you were, folks.
Sheffield has finished counting and almost nothing has changed. Lab and Green have swapped places in two seats; the Council will continue to be run by a Lab-Grn coalition. Given the Council's performance it's perhaps surprising the LDs didn't make gains, but presumably I'm not alone in thinking that they would just find different ways to cock things up.
I've been closely involved with a local service and the experience left me in no doubt that the less power the elected, but ignorant Cabinet member for that service had to interfere with the work of the Director and her team, the better. As permanent employees they were the ones with expertise, experience and commitment to keeping up with innovations in the field. Needless to say, I've never seen a single mention of the services covered by that directorate in local election material and coverage on local media is invariably apolitical.
All of which is a long-winded way of saying that I'm somewhat cynical about local democracy. I'm not sure what the solution is - much greater transparency about political decision-making might help. On the whole I tend to think that much more power should be devolved to local level and that more powerful local and regional governments would attract better candidates and greater scrutiny. In England we seem to be missing a layer of government (don't get me started on why the mayoralties aren't the right way to tackle this).
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Post by graham on May 5, 2023 14:32:18 GMT
The Tories appear to be losing circa 30% of their seats being defended.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 14:33:00 GMT
Analysis of Green gains and losses so far (although their figures are very different from the BBC so whether BBC is tardy or they are assuming gains based on what they know at the count I'm not sure): HOLD 96 GAIN 117 (79 from CON, 10 from LAB, 4 from LD, 22 from IND) LOSS 21 (8 to CON, 10 to LAB, 3 from LD, 1 to IND) Interesting the Lab/Green and Green/LD cancels out and Green gains are basically coming from Tories. Not entirely surprising if Tories haven't turned out but it shows an ABT in play. As was commented on before the results started coming out then in lots of places Greens are Arch-NIMBY so for LEs then a lot of Blue-NIMBY types might well vote for the Green-NIMBY for their local council. Doesn't tell us much about what will happen in a GE IMO but I expect a lot of people will 'assume' that the strong performance for Greens will tactically vote LAB in a GE - even if there is very little difference between LAB and CON national policies. Risky assumption IMO but TBC of course. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 14:33:26 GMT
Labour on just 19 more gains than LD and Greens together. Surprised how little attention in the media is being paid to the surge in Green Party councillors
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 14:41:06 GMT
Labour on just 19 more gains than LD and Greens together. Surprised how little attention in the media is being paid to the surge in Green Party councillors Big increase but total numbers of Green councillors is still low compared to other parties. Per BBC as I write: 1,406 Labour, 1,073 Con, 773 Lib Dem, 185 Green. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 14:43:17 GMT
To me, the relatively low Lab lead over Con is most likely caused by the lack of any real competition on the right. So far, neither RefUK nor any other alternative party on the right was won a single seat, and indeed they do not appear to have contested many. Residents' Assocs have won 17. Contrast this to the 200+ for the Greens. I don't think the exclusion of London, Scotland and Wales from these elections is a factor, though. This would affect the actual total Labour vote, but not the 'NEV'. Labour's polling success over the past year-or-so has been larger in 'England-outwith-London' than in any of those places. These are LEs. I can't speak for every polity but there is plenty of competition for the NIMBY vote. As per previous comment then, for LEs at least, then there are Green and Orange NIMBY options. LAB are usually the only ones keen on more housing but the NIMBY vote is split. NB Might vary in other parts of the country of course. Also plenty of 'anecdotes' people can use. I don't think anyone mentioned Slough before today but at least Greg Hands might have something other than the note from the last LAB govt to comment on now  |
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