steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 11:15:51 GMT
alecWhile he is a murderous bastard Prigohzin does seem to have some grasp on reality saying' “I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on 10 May 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defence ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds,” Prigozhin said in a statement. “I’m pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they’re doomed to perish senselessly.”
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 11:31:09 GMT
There's been a couple of Labour expulsions re-elected as independents so far. This is the most stunning: I wasn't really sure how Liverpool independents would get on as they weren't making any claims and Alan Gibbons was certainly the most high profile and active in his area but worth keeping an eye on how the others get on. I'm shocked they managed to find 27 Conservatives in Liverpool. What were they thinking!  |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 11:34:23 GMT
Another great result for the good people of Redditch today. Josh Tongue, the Redditch Express, has just got the great Steve Smith out at Worcester. LBW for 30.
Thank you Mr Umpire. It looked plum out from where I was some 20 miles away!
😁😎☝️
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 11:35:06 GMT
steve - most of Hertfordshire is looking like a disaster zone for the Tories.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 11:35:49 GMT
Well I like to keep an open mind Trev. Remember Dr Mibbles!… …(well, the first go anyway. The second go didn’t go quite so well…) |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 11:40:05 GMT
Another great result for the good people of Redditch today. Josh Tongue, the Redditch Express, has just got the great Steve Smith out at Worcester. LBW for 30. Thank you Mr Umpire. It looked plum out from where I was some 20 miles away! 😁😎☝️ I've missed the cricket chat. Here for your amusement is a quiz I ran at work: 1. Who was the Captain of HMS Bounty whose crew mutinied against his harsh regime? 2. What is the county town of Shropshire? 3. Who was the Poet Laureate who wrote “The Charge of the Light Brigade” and “Idylls of the King” among many other works? 4. The two former “Top Gear” presenters who appeared with Jeremy Clarkson 5. What colour do you get if you mix red, blue and yellow? 6. In heraldry the word for “left” is sinister. What is the equivalent word for right? 7. In the 1880s Irish tenant farmers reacted to an unpopular English land agent by organising with local shops and businesses to refuse to sell him goods and services. As a result his surname became a word for this practice. He was Captain Charles …? 8. What is the name given to someone who makes arrows? 9. Member of an Austrian family of famous classical music composers, he is perhaps to most famous composer of waltzes, including the “The Blue Danube.” 10. What connects the ten answers above? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,692
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 11:51:49 GMT
One last update from Braintree District. Since the Heritage Party was the subject of much comment yesterday I will mention that their sole candidate in the district received 51 votes and finished last out of the eight candidates in that ward. For context the two winning Green Councillors both topped 1,000 votes. So I don't think we need worry about Heritage sweeping to power anytime soon! Maybe they need more flags |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 11:52:57 GMT
Another great result for the good people of Redditch today. Josh Tongue, the Redditch Express, has just got the great Steve Smith out at Worcester. LBW for 30. Thank you Mr Umpire. It looked plum out from where I was some 20 miles away! 😁😎☝️ I've missed the cricket chat. Here for your amusement is a quiz I ran at work: 1. Who was the Captain of HMS Bounty whose crew mutinied against his harsh regime? 2. What is the county town of Shropshire? 3. Who was the Poet Laureate who wrote “The Charge of the Light Brigade” and “Idylls of the King” among many other works? 4. The two former “Top Gear” presenters who appeared with Jeremy Clarkson 5. What colour do you get if you mix red, blue and yellow? 6. In heraldry the word for “left” is sinister. What is the equivalent word for right? 7. In the 1880s Irish tenant farmers reacted to an unpopular English land agent by organising with local shops and businesses to refuse to sell him goods and services. As a result his surname became a word for this practice. He was Captain Charles …? 8. What is the name given to someone who makes arrows? 9. Member of an Austrian family of famous classical music composers, he is perhaps to most famous composer of waltzes, including the “The Blue Danube.” 10. What connects the ten answers above? 1. Bligh 2. Shrewsbury 3. Tennyson 4. Hammond and May 5. Black 6. Dexter 7. Boycott 8. Fletcher 9. Strauss 10.All former England captains |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 11:56:41 GMT
jimjamIf the good people of Darlington had believed the Green lies there would have been a Green Councillor there now :-)
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,569
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 12:09:28 GMT
I've missed the cricket chat. Here for your amusement is a quiz I ran at work: 1. Who was the Captain of HMS Bounty whose crew mutinied against his harsh regime? 2. What is the county town of Shropshire? 3. Who was the Poet Laureate who wrote “The Charge of the Light Brigade” and “Idylls of the King” among many other works? 4. The two former “Top Gear” presenters who appeared with Jeremy Clarkson 5. What colour do you get if you mix red, blue and yellow? 6. In heraldry the word for “left” is sinister. What is the equivalent word for right? 7. In the 1880s Irish tenant farmers reacted to an unpopular English land agent by organising with local shops and businesses to refuse to sell him goods and services. As a result his surname became a word for this practice. He was Captain Charles …? 8. What is the name given to someone who makes arrows? 9. Member of an Austrian family of famous classical music composers, he is perhaps to most famous composer of waltzes, including the “The Blue Danube.” 10. What connects the ten answers above? 1. Bligh 2. Shrewsbury 3. Tennyson 4. Hammond and May 5. Black 6. Dexter 7. Boycott 8. Fletcher 9. Strauss 10.All former England captains Absolutely (except it is Brown rather than Black). It was my way of getting people with little or no interest in cricket to do a cricket quiz |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 12:10:19 GMT
The question is will the tories learn their lesson from these disastrous results and stop banging on about the war on woke, Sue Gray etc and concentrate on issues that matter to most people, most notably the cost of living crisis and the economy well one fears if they do concentrate on those issues, they might make them worse… |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 5, 2023 12:15:27 GMT
looks like the Tories are being absolutely routed by the Lib Dems in the true blue South Hams..
Should have stood down here, Steve!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 12:15:52 GMT
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."The only worry for Labour would be a stubborn Green vote and even then we can't know if this is just because it's the locals and perhaps if Labour turnout is down. Well Labour seem to be going quite big on green issues which might help in that regard in the GE. (Assuming Starmer doesn’t change his mind again…) |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 12:16:50 GMT
Maybe too counter-intuitive, even far-fetched, but I wonder if the introduction of compulsory voter photo ID, has been an element in the Tories drubbing in these local elections. Not in the sense that the measure discriminates against their core voters, because it doesn't, but because it offends against conservatism. The hankering for continuity and tradition and a sense of fair play. Moderate Conservative voters share these decent and benign values and I suspect many would have disliked the new requirement in the same way they would have bridled at the pencil in a string being replaced by a keypad.
Another example of right-wing ideology being incompatible with conservatism, maybe? Some psephological evidence in Tory shires that it just might be.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 12:20:10 GMT
With a significant number of councils only having a 1/3 up for a re-election, it does reduce the opportunity for Labour to make headline grabbing gains such as East Staffs. I can't remember, but in the 90's were council elections split this way with some doing a 1/3 etc? If so, the comparisons with the Blair year gains before '97 are a bit flawed.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 12:27:14 GMT
Over at the Telegraph, they seem quite concerned about a banking crisis.
“Likewise, for every measure that supposedly demonstrates resilience, another can be found that rings alarm bells. Academics at New York University estimate unrealised US bank losses to be $1.7 trillion (£1.3 trillion), while the FDIC admits that uninsured deposits at US banks tripled to $7.7 trillion between 2009 and 2022.
Amid such fragility, a proposal to lift the deposit insurance cap from $250,000 sounds like a recipe for even more exuberance.
Evidently, the banking crisis is clearly not over. On the contrary it may just be getting started. The question everyone should be asking is how bad is it likely to get?”
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 12:31:33 GMT
With a significant number of councils only having a 1/3 up for a re-election, it does reduce the opportunity for Labour to make headline grabbing gains such as East Staffs. I can't remember, but in the 90's were council elections split this way with some doing a 1/3 etc? If so, the comparisons with the Blair year gains before '97 are a bit flawed. Although individual Councils have sometimes changed systems, there have always been a considerable number that elected by thirds. Another factor in terms of numbers of seats changing hands is that quite a few have been slimmed down. Braintree had 60 Councillors in the 1990s, now only has 49. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 12:31:59 GMT
More on the potential for a banking crisis in another article…
Half of America’s banks are potentially insolvent – this is how a credit crunch begins
The twin crashes in US commercial real estate and the US bond market have collided with $9 trillion uninsured deposits in the American banking system. Such deposits can vanish in an afternoon in the cyber age.
The second and third biggest bank failures in US history have followed in quick succession. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve would like us to believe that they are “idiosyncratic”. That is a dangerous evasion.
Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses.
“It’s spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater,” said Professor Amit Seru, a banking expert at Stanford University. “Let’s not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent.”
The full shock of monetary tightening by the Fed has yet to hit. A great edifice of debt faces a refinancing cliff-edge over the next six quarters. Only then will we learn whether the US financial system can safely deflate the excess leverage induced by extreme monetary stimulus during the pandemic.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 12:32:54 GMT
And…
“Rates have gone up 400 to 500 basis points in a year, and financing markets have almost completely shut down. We estimate there’s four to five trillion dollars of debt in the commercial (property) sectors, of which about a trillion is maturing in the next 12 to 18 months,” he said.
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Could the losses be as bad as the subprime crisis? Probably not. Capital Economics says the investment bubble in US residential property peaked at 6.5pc of GDP in 2007. The comparable figure for commercial property today is 2.6pc.
But the threat is not trivial either. US commercial property prices have so far fallen by just 4pc to 5pc. Capital Economics expects a peak to trough decline of 22pc. This will wreak further havoc on the loan portfolios of the regional banks that account for 70pc of all commercial property financing.
“In a worst case scenario, it could create a ‘doom loop’ which accelerates a real estate downturn that then feeds back into the banking system,” said Neil Shearing, the group’s chief economist.
…
Mr Whalen said US banks and bond investors (i.e. pension funds and insurance companies) are “holding the bag” on $5 trillion of implicit losses left by the final blow-off phase of the Fed’s QE experiment. “Since US banks only have about $2 trillion in tangible equity capital, we have a problem,” he said.
He predicts that the banking crisis will keep moving up the food chain from the original outliers to mainstream banks until the Fed backs off and slashes rates by 100 basis points.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 12:39:16 GMT
pjw1961Indeed currently in Dacorum with 16 councillors still to be declared out of 51 22 lib dems up already from 19 3 Labour up from 0 and 2 independents. Tories in 9 down from 31 a likely another 7 lib dems wins so an overall majority outstanding. Dacorum has never been liberal democrat before even when the lib dems were scoring 26% in a general election. Btw jib and @trevor Hemel voted 59% leave in the referendum.
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Post by EmCat on May 5, 2023 12:50:23 GMT
The young are said to be more politically apathetic than the old, less likely to vote. Given the above and labour essentially agreeing with con on so many issues unpopular to the young and against their interests, its hardly surprising if said youth are not turning out to vote labour. In describing voters as ABCON, well yes its con in power at the moment doing so much against the interests of the majority of the population, but its also true labour do not oppose most of those measures. So no, I think ABCON is wrong. Its the polices youth dont like
Polling normally does not capture the true view of those eligible to vote. It concentrates on people who actually vote and ignores the views of abstainers. Most people in the UK are not happy to support any existing party. Those that do mostly do so for lack of any other choice.
Given Millennials and Gen Z will soon represent half the adult population, I wonder how things would be shaken up if a very much "younger people focused" party started up. Borrowing bits from both traditional LoC and RoC views, but mainly appealing to those who are otherwise in the "Don't like either of the two main ones that much" It would certainly upset a few apple carts |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 5, 2023 12:50:53 GMT
Lib Dems take control of South Hams from Con!
When all the results are in it will be by a big margin. Very impressive.
A new wind blowing through the South West?
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 13:06:35 GMT
Labour group on Redditch council now numbering 13 councillors. Up from a nadir of 4 last year.
One more heave and Redditch will have a Labour controlled council once again. The old needle and fishing tackle making town then back in its rightful hands.
Rachel MacLean, your boys took one hell of a beating.....
😁😎
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 13:13:20 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion.
Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland.
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 13:16:29 GMT
Surprised they are still talking on BBC about 1000 Conservative losses - looks more like 850 or so to me
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 13:22:55 GMT
colinI doubt formal coalition but with lib dems now realistically on for 40+ mps confidence and supply entirely possible. The price would be PR. Before jib reaches for his crayons with that projection the lib dems couldn't prop up the Tories even if we wanted to , which we don't.
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 13:23:04 GMT
Mole Valley, part of the new yellow wall, turnout 41.8%
Results so far: Lib Dem 16 Con 2. But my ward hasn't declared yet...
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 13:36:51 GMT
Not published yet but Lib Dems have won Dacorum😁😁😁
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2023 13:40:09 GMT
Any projections of vote share and subsequent predictions of hung parliaments should be heavily caveated by -
1) LD/Greens tend to better in locals,
2) Con/Lab vote share tends to be higher in GE's than locals
3) These elections don't include London - which in all likelihood is going to go even redder than previously
4) Overall profile of those voting tends to be different in locals to GE
5) No Scotland either
If you look a the details of some of these votes they are encouraging for Labour, not just in the 'red wall' but also in seats that haven't been competitive in since the Blair years.
Edit
6) Or Wales
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 13:42:06 GMT
Thrasher on Sky._ National equivalent = Lab lead of 8%. = Lab / LD coaltion. Not sure if that forecast includes Scotland. Isn't this just if these results were replicated at a General Election? Which they won't be as there are a good bit less than 50% of people voting who would vote in a General Election? |
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