24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[neilj]

May 5, 2023 9:19:15 GMT colin said:

Oh gawd. Davey on his rostrum being smug.🙄

In fairness he's got a lot to be smug about 😀

[oldnat]

Not much going on in politics at the moment, other than the Record reporting that among the lengthy list of items being hunted for by police at Sturgeon's home were a lady's razor and a wheelbarrow,

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/police-probing-alleged-snp-fraud-29893790

but I did see this.

[pjw1961]

May 5, 2023 9:20:08 GMT James E said:

pjw1961

Labour under-performance in Local Elections - here are the comparative figures:

2022 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4)
2021 29% v 34% in GE polls (-5)
2019 28% v 29% in GE polls (+1)
2018 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4)
2017 27% v 29% in GE polls (-2)

I should add that the Conservatives underperform in LEs, too. Sometimes by more than Labour.
And there is clearly a pattern that both Labour and the Conservatives underperform more when they are doing well. As an historical example of this, Labour underperformed by 9% and 10% in 1995 and 1996 when enjoying those huge polling leads under Blair.

Thanks James. So I won't over-egg it, but it would be not unreasonable on those figures to add - say - 4% to the notional national vote based on the local results. Since that looks likely to be in the region of 36%-ish (we won't get the figures until tomorrow), that would suggest Labour on c40%. 

[Mr Poppy]

May 5, 2023 9:19:15 GMT colin said:

Oh gawd. Davey on his rostrum being smug.🙄

LDEM performance is "ground breaking" - same as it was in every over LE (see James E data) and loads of Westminster seat by-elections in the past.

As posted before the result, which are still coming in, then it's usually about now (post the usual good performance in LEs) that LDEM leader states they (could be) "next PM" 

[thylacine]

May 5, 2023 7:32:52 GMT RAF said:

A quick note on why Medway matters. It's one of those relatively rare direct Tory/Lab contests amongst predominantly working class voters.

Perhaps others will be able to explain why Lab can make headway in this north Kent constituency, but not in its southern Essex counterparts across the water.

Essex man and woman as typified by Basildon went Tory many years ago. They tend to be the sort of Tories that could only idolise Braverman more if she were white. Should they turn from Tory it will not be to Labour unlike in general the red wall voters who still value to a certain extent their working class roots and beliefs.I would guess those in Medway are similar as well as having more of an influx of middle class Londoners

[shevii]

May 5, 2023 9:21:21 GMT oldnat said:

Not much going on in politics at the moment, other than the Record reporting that among the lengthy list of items being hunted for by police at Sturgeon's home were a lady's razor and a wheelbarrow,

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/police-probing-alleged-snp-fraud-29893790

but I did see this.

mansionfarmshop.com/Lincolnshire-Tea-Loose-Leaf-p217551501?gclid=Cj0KCQjw0tKiBhC6ARIsAAOXutlxZC4hzsG3SxYvvYIMX-qyT7ufn6ffwZvw6Xj9mHF-X03WXxQRgIsaAtWmEALw_wcB

[pjw1961]

One last update from Braintree District. Since the Heritage Party was the subject of much comment yesterday I will mention that their sole candidate in the district received 51 votes and finished last out of the eight candidates in that ward. For context the two winning Green Councillors both topped 1,000 votes. So I don't think we need worry about Heritage sweeping to power anytime soon!

[JohnC]

May 5, 2023 5:31:37 GMT Danny said:

May 4, 2023 19:34:00 GMT JohnC said:

My younger son who works for an AI company tells me that chatGPT can sometimes be useful when he is asked to solve a specific software problem. It can offer leads to a potential solution much more quickly than a search engine.

Surely it IS a search engine?

I dont know how search engines work, but they are filtering content they have read on the internet and presenting what they think you will want to know?

To be precise then, traditional search engines. So if I ask a search engine for 'Chinese restaurants in Exeter' it will give me pubs in Inverness because it thinks that is what I want to know?

[James E]

May 5, 2023 9:28:03 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 5, 2023 9:20:08 GMT James E said:

pjw1961

Labour under-performance in Local Elections - here are the comparative figures:

2022 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4)
2021 29% v 34% in GE polls (-5)
2019 28% v 29% in GE polls (+1)
2018 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4)
2017 27% v 29% in GE polls (-2)

I should add that the Conservatives underperform in LEs, too. Sometimes by more than Labour.
And there is clearly a pattern that both Labour and the Conservatives underperform more when they are doing well. As an historical example of this, Labour underperformed by 9% and 10% in 1995 and 1996 when enjoying those huge polling leads under Blair.

Thanks James. So I won't over-egg it, but it would be not unreasonable on those figures to add - say - 4% to the notional national vote based on the local results. Since that looks likely to be in the region of 36%-ish (we won't get the figures until tomorrow), that would suggest Labour on c40%. 

There is also a more recent precedent for Labour underperforming by 10 points - the 2013 Local Elections where they got 29% NEV v 39% GE poll average.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_Kingdom_local_elections

This might have been an early sign that the polls were overstating Labour - as they did by 3 points in GE2015 polls. But even if we allow for that error, it would still be a performance 7 points below Labour's (adjusted) polling level. So an NEV of 37-38% would be compatible with the current Average Lab VI of 44%. 

[Rafwan]

steve

Well done on the result. So far as I can see you drew away sufficient of those Tory voters who couldn’t face a direct switch to Lab. And that led to a Lab win and a Tory out. Excellent outcome for all of us!

[steve]

colin
He's got something to be smug about.

[steve]

So the Tories are going to continue with their oh so popular polices of cutting boats in half while growing inflation or something like that.


Su Knackered

[alec]

Must be a bad night for Cons. A Lib Dem councilor in Salford is now facing a problem, as he stood last night in the Cotswolds as a 'paper candidate', just to fill the Lib Dems slate in seats they had no chance of winning.

He won.

Oops.

[Danny]

Someone just said Theresa May resigned after the last lot of bad election results. Begging the question whether Sunak should now?

[pjw1961]

One Lib Dem gain they probably could have done without (from the Guardian):

"A flaw in the current electoral system has been exposed in Salford, where a sitting Liberal Democrat councillor has just been elected in the Cotswolds as well. The Manchester Evening News (MEN) reports that Chris Twells, who won a seat on Salford council last year in the Ordsall ward for the Lib Dems, stood as a “paper candidate” in the Cotswolds — and won.

In the run up to this year’s election, Salford’s Labour mayor, Paul Dennett, raised his concerns about Twells moonlighting in the Cotswolds. He was assured by Coun Alex Warren, leader of the Lib Dems in Salford, that: “His name is on the ballot paper as a paper candidacy because the Lib Dems were struggling to fill their slate. He will not win.”

But win he did, taking 38% of the vote in the Tetbury with Upton ward, ousting a Conservative. Oops. Dennett called on Twells to “do the right thing” and resign his Salford seat to concentrate on representing his new ward in the Cotswolds."

Edit: Alec got there first

[lululemonmustdobetter]

If I was a Tory strategist, one of the results so far that would have me sweating is the North West Leicestershire one. Con - NOC.

Total councillors by party Gains/losses

Lab 17 +10

Con 12 -10

Lib Dem 5 +1

Other 4 0

Green 0 -

This is Andrew Bridgen's seat - he got 63% of the vote in '19, so on the face of it a safe seat. However, this is one of the 'Blair seats' that Labour held from '97-'10. So this may be an indication that Starmer's Labour party can potentially win these types of seats across middle England. If so Sunak is in trouble.

[pjw1961]

May 5, 2023 10:21:46 GMT Danny said:

Someone just said Theresa May resigned after the last lot of bad election results. Begging the question whether Sunak should now?

James Cleverly for PM. You heard it here first

[shevii]

May 5, 2023 10:21:37 GMT alec said:

Must be a bad night for Cons. A Lib Dem councilor in Salford is now facing a problem, as he stood last night in the Cotswolds as a 'paper candidate', just to fill the Lib Dems slate in seats they had no chance of winning.

He won.

Oops.

steve

There are "paper candidates" and then there are "paper candidates" :-)

[patrickbrian]

So far in South Hams: - two results , two lib dem gains from Con! Looks like this very Tory area will be NOC or even Lib Dem controlled by tea time.

[alec]

It really does sound like problems for Cons. The scale of the losses really do sound like they are well beyond anyone's legitimate expectations, and while we will get all the (justified) caveats about this being the locals, low turnout, not as good for Lab as it's bad for Con etc, the internal party dynamic is starting to look poor for Sunak.

Everyone knows Truss and her cohorts were abject failures, but they are still there, and the hard right still has a big foothold in the party. You have one group of MPs arguoing that they need to dial down the far right anti-migrant, anti-human rights rhetoric, go for fiscal responsibility etc, while you have the other claiming all out war on small boats and mindless slashing of regulations and tax is just what's needed. And in the middle, Sunak was, until last night, able to claim that he polls ahead of his party and is the best chance for being a winner.

Both sides confidence in him will be shaken if these worst case scenarios end up as the actual outcome, and I'm not sure that Sunak has the authority to contain a party pulling in diametrically opposite directions after such a set of results.

[Danny]

May 5, 2023 9:29:46 GMT Mr Poppy said:

LDEM performance is "ground breaking" - same as it was in every over LE (see James E data) and loads of Westminster seat by-elections in the past.

Obviously the same can be said for the claims of all parties.

However the rising trend for libs has been apparent for decades. if they had not cravenly thrown in with the conservatives in 2010, they might by now have achieved maybe 1/3 of MPs or even approaching a majority. But as we all know they threw it away.

despite their best efforts to lose, voters really dont have much choice so it seems there is a resurgence of support for them once again. Crossing our fingers they learnt their lesson. The problem of course if that Clegg rolled over to enjoy some time in government. Not alone in that, Cameron agreed a referendum to get back into power. Johnson became a born again leaver. Starmer and co seem to be zooming to the right to get into power.

[pjw1961]

May 5, 2023 9:00:23 GMT pjw1961 said:

I see Sunak was trying to claim Bassetlaw as a Tory triumph. This was the actual result:

Labour 38 (+1), Conservative 8 (+4), Independents 2 (-4), Lib Dems 0 (-1)

If that's supposed to be success then they are it big trouble.

While I'm at it, I see another of Sunak's 'successes' was Sandwell. This was the Sandwell result: 

Labour 60 (+2), Conservative 12 (+2), Lib Dem 0 (-2), Others 0 (-2)

I hear the sound of straws being clutched. 

[Danny]

May 5, 2023 10:31:15 GMT alec said:

You have one group of MPs arguoing that they need to dial down the far right anti-migrant, anti-human rights rhetoric, go for fiscal responsibility etc, while you have the other claiming all out war on small boats and mindless slashing of regulations and tax is just what's needed.

More mainstream, a councillor was arguing that it was government quotas forcing them to build new houses which sank them. Whereas its likely that overall its the shortage of houses which has been sinking con chances.

[alec]

Meanwhile, in other news;

The head of the Wagner group has just announced they are withdrawing from Bakhmut on May 10th. He cited a lack of support and supplies from the Russian regular army as the reason, and was pictured standing in a field of corpses as he slated the poor levels of support he alleged they had received.

Can't comment on the truth of this, but it clearly shows tensions abound within the Russian military set up.

[Danny]

May 5, 2023 10:34:06 GMT pjw1961 said:

May 5, 2023 9:00:23 GMT pjw1961 said:

I see Sunak was trying to claim Bassetlaw as a Tory triumph. This was the actual result:

Labour 38 (+1), Conservative 8 (+4), Independents 2 (-4), Lib Dems 0 (-1)

If that's supposed to be success then they are it big trouble.

While I'm at it, I see another of Sunak's 'successes' was Sandwell. This was the Sandwell result: 

Labour 60 (+2), Conservative 12 (+2), Lib Dem 0 (-2), Others 0 (-2)

I hear the sound of straws being clutched. 

Obviously con see independants and libs as their major opponent. Some truth in that, if lab policies would have been entirely acceptable to Thatcher.

[oldnat]

May 5, 2023 10:21:37 GMT alec said:

Must be a bad night for Cons. A Lib Dem councilor in Salford is now facing a problem, as he stood last night in the Cotswolds as a 'paper candidate', just to fill the Lib Dems slate in seats they had no chance of winning.

He won.

Oops.

They can now have the fun of a by-election in a few months, if the LDs in Buckie are anything to go by.

www.holyrood.com/news/view,lib-dem-councillor-quits-moray-council-three-months-after-election

There are always risks being a paper candidate - as Marie Osmond sang 

Paper roses, paper roses,
Oh how real those roses seem to me
But they're only imitation
Like your imitation love for me

[Danny]

May 5, 2023 10:42:11 GMT alec said:

Meanwhile, in other news;

The head of the Wagner group has just announced they are withdrawing from Bakhmut on May 10th. He cited a lack of support and supplies from the Russian regular army as the reason, and was pictured standing in a field of corpses as he slated the poor levels of support he alleged they had received.

Can't comment on the truth of this, but it clearly shows tensions abound within the Russian military set up.

I suspect Putin was happy to see them shot to pieces. Didn't like a rival private army, didn't like a rival politician given there are still some elections in Russia, and preferred it was their troops dying instead of the Russian army which has no doubt been desperately trying to improve.

Which isnt to say he would not also have been happy for a big win. But if it was to be either a loss or phyrric victory, better this way round.


as to how the war is going overall, who knows. Given the half hearted western support, time seems to be on Russia's side.

[shevii]

There's been a couple of Labour expulsions re-elected as independents so far. This is the most stunning:

I wasn't really sure how Liverpool independents would get on as they weren't making any claims and Alan Gibbons was certainly the most high profile and active in his area but worth keeping an eye on how the others get on.

[shevii]

Greens looking good in Mid Suffolk which was one of their targets- a small council and 500 votes can win some of the seats but the swings from the Tories are huge and they have gained 3 seats so far- one gain they hadn't stood the previous time, although no doubt helped by the LD who finished 2nd in a two horse race not standing.

Greens didn't stand in a lot of seats last time or LD were the obvious challengers to the Tories so still to be confirmed if they can take the council with a majority.

[bardin1]

May 5, 2023 11:06:37 GMT shevii said:

Greens looking good in Mid Suffolk which was one of their targets- a small council and 500 votes can win some of the seats but the swings from the Tories are huge and they have gained 3 seats so far- one gain they hadn't stood the previous time, although no doubt helped by the LD who finished 2nd in a two horse race not standing.

Greens didn't stand in a lot of seats last time or LD were the obvious challengers to the Tories so still to be confirmed if they can take the council with a majority.

Greens are doing very well generally. I suspect they are gaining the younger left of centre vote. 37 gains so far as compared to LDs 62 - should be a bigger BBC story than currently showing