c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 8:14:10 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w, could just mean tactical voting is coming more to the fore? If so, how many Lib Dems will go back to the Tories in a GE? Could be Pete, but I confess others on the board know rather more about that sort of thing than me. Be interesting to know what they think… |
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Post by wb61 on May 5, 2023 8:14:36 GMT
One thing that is often forgotten about these sorts of losses for a major party, very often it means that the former councillors and, perhaps, more particularly their friends and families are no longer available for campaigning, or indeed the more mundane tasks. When this happens close to a general election it means a lack of troops on the ground when they can play a most important role.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 8:16:08 GMT
Given that is Curtice in the Telegraph, it fits with the idea that he tailors his message to his employer. He will know the well rehearsed reasons why Labour local election performances don't match GE opinion polling leads. In reality this one is looking exceptionally good. Well I think the Telegraph were relaying what he said on the Beeb? But he could still have been tailoring the message of course! Ok - a fair point. Still think Curtice is wrong though - and that isn't based on my opinion but the likes of Anthony Wells, who can hardly be accused of being pro-Labour. There is a lot of polling v local election results v subsequent GEs evidence that backs it as well. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 8:18:56 GMT
You're perhaps new to politics but 'cherry picking' by politicians is not lying. Oh yes it is. It explains much about modern politics that you think this is a credible distinction. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,692
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 8:21:45 GMT
Well I think the Telegraph were relaying what he said on the Beeb? But he could still have been tailoring the message of course! Ok - a fair point. Still think Curtice is wrong though - and that isn't based on my opinion but the likes of Anthony Wells, who can hardly be accused of being pro-Labour. There is a lot of polling v local election results v subsequent GEs evidence that backs it as well. indeed, critiquing the analyses of the professionals was something that used to happen on the old board too. (Even I joined in on occasion, esp. when it was Kellner…) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 8:22:06 GMT
@trevor I think you're underestimating Joe Public's ability to interpret these local results and vote appropriately at the general election. Please use the 'quote' or 'tag' function rather than @trevor as it is easy to scroll past posts Perhaps you could explain your post. I note neither Starmer or Sunak stood in the LEs, so perhaps mention that to someone who might think "Best PM' is measured by LE results. IIRC then you are LDEM so perhaps also look at seats such as: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead&postcode=HP3%209EYSo are you saying that LDEM doing well in some parts of Dacorum Borough Council (just not steve "Tory Enabler's" ward) should be treated with caution as "Joe Public" will work out that LAB are the best ABCON party in a GE. By all means take that up with LDEM people in Hemel Hempstead and suggest they don't post a candidate in a GE (or only post a 'paper' candidate). My 2c. Allow LDEM their moment of glory, get the bar charts cranking for "Only LDEM can win here" out and see what happens in 18mths time in a GE  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 8:24:00 GMT
@trevor.
Grow up.
There were no Labour councillors in Dacorum before the election they now have several and will have a lib dem/ labour controlled council replacing the Tories who have held office for 18 years.
We need more " Tory enabling " like this.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 8:27:53 GMT
Only Trevor and co could interpret a defeat for the Tories as Tory enabling.
In answer to his question if we hadn't stood in our ward there might have been one more Labour councillor which would have made no difference to the outcome of the council other than possibly deny an overall lib dem majority.
I know Barbara from my time in the local Labour party she'll make an excellent councillor.
Village idiot.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 8:28:28 GMT
Greg Hands quote from Guardian Politics Live: "There’s areas where Labour really should have don’t done better last night. We’ve actually gained councillors in seats which Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017, like Peterborough like in Sandwell, like in Bassetlaw. So I don’t think it’s a uniformly good picture for Labour"The three councils mentioned, net CON gains
Peterborough: +2
Sandwell: +2
Bassetlaw: +2You're perhaps new to politics but 'cherry picking' by politicians is not lying. As for "wiped out" then CON have already won 435 seats (as at time of writing) so perhaps you can accuse an actual liar of lying. Grow up Trevor. I will be ignoring your pathetic trolling from now on. I suggest you likewise ignore me. The site will be better for it. ?!? So you don't mind people actually lying if they are LAB people but get upset when people who are not LAB point out the facts. Plenty of examples of that kind of behaviour in the past but thank you for such a clear example of "hypocrisy". By all means please do finally start to ignore me. Do I have your promise that you will finally do that? Yes/No Myself, back to use 'notifications' as the way for trolls to ask me a question if they want to (ie use the 'tag' or 'quote' function - as per your reply). So if you/others want to engage in some bully style trolling then use @trevor, Trevor or some indirect reference. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 8:29:33 GMT
@trevor I think you're underestimating Joe Public's ability to interpret these local results and vote appropriately at the general election. i think you are right about Trevor, who is defending the conservative position. However, I also think labour is deeply unappealing to many, maybe most, of the nation. It has chosen a strategy of driving con into a shrinking corner of the exterme right by itself pushing towards the more moderate right. Thereby leaving the entire left unhappy. Corbyn's people. The only reason this works is FPP, which has left us with governments disinterested in mass appeal because they dont need mass apeal to win. (and its pretty hard to get). I think it is dangerous to assume that in a particular election had libs not stood, then the ABC vote would have coalesced behing lab. Some would, some wouldnt. I have been a persistent lib voter most of my life mainly in protest against both lab and con. There are an awful lot of us. I think theres reason to think libs may do surprisingly well at the next general election. Especially if lab maintain a strong lead. |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2023 8:32:04 GMT
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."Surely that's what happens in local elections anyway (ie more choice = more parties sharing the spoils = lower swing)? Also the two horse race thing in a General Election will make Lab happy the Tories have done so badly and they're not going to mind an LD back up plan if we got into hung territory. Always best to wait for the whole results but if the Tories are losing 1k seats then that was their worst expectations and part of their expectation management to say they'd done a lot better than 1k seat loss, so they move onto "mid term" and "it was always going to be a difficult election" (as we said) which doesn't have the same ring to it as doing a lot better than they were predicted to do. The only worry for Labour would be a stubborn Green vote and even then we can't know if this is just because it's the locals and perhaps if Labour turnout is down. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 8:33:15 GMT
The question is will the tories learn their lesson from these disastrous results and stop banging on about the war on woke, Sue Gray etc and concentrate on issues that matter to most people, most notably the cost of living crisis and the economy
I won't hold my breath
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 8:34:35 GMT
Ok, I've had a bit of initial fun with the results thus far, and some silliness too, and will reserve more serious judgement for a time when the full picture is known, but I'm saying a little prayer now for my old comrades in Redditch ahead of the declaration at 4.00pm this afternoon. Counting is underway.
Labour is so far behind in the town that control of the council isn't at stake today, but there was a long yearned for recovery in the locals last year, and in the odd subsequent by-election too, and hopefully that can continue this time around.
I wasn't able to do much campaigning this year, for a variety of reasons, and I now live away from my old hometown, but the place retains a place deep inside in my soul, both emotionally and politically, and after years of defeats, reverses and even humiliations, I hope my former foot-slogging friends get a little joy and cause for optimism today.
Maybe the glory days of the Blairirte era will never return, but there is a strong latent Labour vote in the old needle-making town of my birth. It goes to sleep for long periods, but it might rouse itself from its deep slumbers a little today. The town once produced some of the genuinely great local government Labour politicians - Walter Stranz, Harry Taylor, Frank Cardy and Albert Wharrard to name but a few. Redditch is full of streets, schools and buildings named after these great figures who did so much to shape its history and well-being over the years. These monuments resonate melancholy now as the party has retreated from view in the town over the last 15 years or so.
Some glimmers from the old fading light today, I hope. The flame was never quite extinguished.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 8:35:13 GMT
Only Trevor and co could interpret a defeat for the Tories as Tory enabling. In answer to his question if we hadn't stood in our ward there might have been one more Labour councillor which would have made no difference to the outcome of the council other than possibly deny an overall lib dem majority. Village idiot. So you admit you enabled a Tory to win one of the seats in the ward. You chose to stand, so who is the 'idiot'? Best start on the 'Winning Here' posters for GE'24. I look forward to LDEM being Tory Enablers in a GE but 'well done' LDEM who can take over as Orange-NIMBY from Blue-NIMBY in a Borough Council. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 8:43:31 GMT
@trevor I think you're underestimating Joe Public's ability to interpret these local results and vote appropriately at the general election. i think you are right about Trevor, who is defending the conservative position. However, I also think labour is deeply unappealing to many, maybe most, of the nation. Logically then, since Labour are polling more votes than the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats or Greens then those parties are also "deeply unappealing to many, maybe most, of the nation"? |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 8:45:08 GMT
Crikey, I'm so out of touch now I've just realised that Redditch has already declared! They counted overnight!
The Labour recovery continues. Not stellar but five seats gained off the Tories. Even my old ward of Headless Cross and Oakenshaw. We hardly ever won that one.
Well done, the good folk of my old hometown.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 8:45:27 GMT
The question is will the tories learn their lesson from these disastrous results and stop banging on about the war on woke, Sue Gray etc and concentrate on issues that matter to most people, most notably the cost of living crisis and the economy I won't hold my breath Perhaps quote what Sunak actually said and not whatever you made up earlier, or 'reinterpreted' from Groan Politics Live. However, even GPL covered it (8:04 BST)
Sunak claims election results show people want him to carry on delivering on his five pledges
"We’ve only had a quarter of the results in.
Actually, we’re making progress in key election battleground like Peterborough, Bassetlaw, Sandwell.
But the message I am hearing from people tonight is that they want us to focus on their priorities, and they want us to deliver for them.
And that’s about halving inflation, growing the economy. reducing debt, cutting waiting lists and stopping the boats. That’s what people care about. That’s what they want us to deliver. And that’s why the government are going to work very hard to do."Elsewhere from UKPR2's preferred source (8:19 BST):
"But Thrasher also claims Labour is not doing well enough to be on course to gain an overall majority at the next election." I expect another actual expert will be accused on being wrong as the LOC partisan's only believe the words of their leaders www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/04/local-elections-2023-latest-results-reactions-polls-close-england-conservatives-labour-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-lib-dems-greens-live-updatesPS Just doing one reply to each of the 'usual suspects' other than the one who will land me with another 'time out' if I engage with. Back to previous thread approach after that so by all means continue to make stuff up as I doubt anyone will ever call out lies from ABCON posters. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 8:46:04 GMT
The question is will the tories learn their lesson from these disastrous results and stop banging on about the war on woke, Sue Gray etc and concentrate on issues that matter to most people, most notably the cost of living crisis and the economy I won't hold my breath No, dont. Neither lab nor con care what most people are interested in. They are fighting over the right vote and both ignoring the left because it has no party to support. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 5, 2023 8:48:38 GMT
So now we know: www.independent.co.uk/life-style/royal-family/king-charles-allegiance-coronation-archbishop-b2332986.htmlA friend of King Charles suggested the new monarch would be horrified by the public pledging allegiance to him. Broadcaster Jonathan Dimbleby, a close friend of the King, said the idea was “ill advised” and not something the monarch would have wanted. “I can’t think of anything he would find more abhorrent,” Mr Dimbleby told the Today Programme. “He’s never wanted to be revered. He’s never wanted anyone to pay homage to him except in mock terms as a joke.” (older board members will remember that he performed with the Goons). Welby also has a pretty bad reputation in the CofE these days for the way he is trying to change it. It is all about managerialism instead of faith (one looks back fondly to Rowan Williams' time as archbishop). |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 8:56:00 GMT
@trevor
I make no such declaration because it's daft. We of course don't know who those who voted for lib dems would have voted for if we hadn't stood.
What about the first non Tory council for 18 years don't you understand.
Incidentally as Dacorum borough contains approximately 40, 000 more electors than the parliamentary constituency of Hemel Hempstead which is historically more Labour inclined than the very liberal neighbouring towns of Berkhamsted and Tring which are in the borough it doesn't actually give that much of a guide.
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Post by James E on May 5, 2023 8:57:36 GMT
Re the LibDems traditional overperformance in Local Elections compared to GE polling.
Here are their Net Equivalent Vote percentages for the past 6 years, compared to their average polling figure for the 6 polls before each years local elections.
2022 19% v 11% in GE polls(+8)
2021 17% v 8% in GE polls (+9)
2019 19% v 9% in GE polls(+10)
2018 16% v 8% in GE polls (+8)
2017 18% v 7% in GE polls (+11)
So if the LDs do achieve a NEV of 21% compared to 11% in recent polls, that would be entirely normal.
One rider to this: I am comparing to polls before the LEs in each year. It's also normal for the LibDems to get a polling boost afterwards when voters see that they have done 'surprisingly well'.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 9:00:23 GMT
I see Sunak was trying to claim Bassetlaw as a Tory triumph. This was the actual result:
Labour 38 (+1), Conservative 8 (+4), Independents 2 (-4), Lib Dems 0 (-1)
If that's supposed to be success then they are it big trouble.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 9:02:55 GMT
Re the LibDems traditional overperformance in Local Elections compared to GE polling. Here are their NEW percentages for the past 6 years, compared to their average polling figure for the 6 polls before each years local elections. 2022 19% v 11% in GE polls(+8) 2021 17% v 8% in GE polls (+9) 2019 19% v 9% in GE polls(+10) 2018 16% v 8% in GE polls (+8) 2017 18% v 7% in GE polls (+11) So if the LDs do achieve a NEV of 21% compared to 11% in recent polls, that would be entirely normal. One rider to this: I am comparing to polls before the LEs in each year. It's also normal for the LibDems to get a polling boost afterwards when voters see that they have done 'surprisingly well'. Thanks James - that is the sort of data I am referring to. Could you post the corresponding Labour under-performance numbers? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 9:06:09 GMT
Ok - a fair point. Still think Curtice is wrong though - and that isn't based on my opinion but the likes of Anthony Wells, who can hardly be accused of being pro-Labour. There is a lot of polling v local election results v subsequent GEs evidence that backs it as well. indeed, critiquing the analyses of the professionals was something that used to happen on the old board too. (Even I joined in on occasion, esp. when it was Kellner…) Maybe Prof Thrasher will also be accused of being "wrong"?
Local elections 2023: A 'hammering' for the Tories, but Labour majority at general election by no means certainnews.sky.com/story/local-elections-2023-a-hammering-for-the-tories-but-labour-majority-at-general-election-by-no-means-certain-12873417 Well Starmer is now a Brexiteer so what was the saying from back then?... "Who needs experts" The obviously completely neutral and unbiased sample of opinion on UKPR2 is clearly the best measure to use |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 9:06:16 GMT
Re the LibDems traditional overperformance in Local Elections compared to GE polling. Here are their NEW percentages for the past 6 years, compared to their average polling figure for the 6 polls before each years local elections. 2022 19% v 11% in GE polls(+8) 2021 17% v 8% in GE polls (+9) 2019 19% v 9% in GE polls(+10) 2018 16% v 8% in GE polls (+8) 2017 18% v 7% in GE polls (+11) So if the LDs do achieve a NEV of 21% compared to 11% in recent polls, that would be entirely normal. One rider to this: I am comparing to polls before the LEs in each year. It's also normal for the LibDems to get a polling boost afterwards when voters see that they have done 'surprisingly well'. You make a very good and well evidenced point I would only add that come the next election there will likely be an ABT vote bigger than recent elections The disgust many now hold for the tories will mean more people looking to get rid of the tories, even if it means not voting for their first choice As a result I suspect many in England will opt for Labour where they are the obvious contender and lib-dems where they are I also strongly suspect, as normally happens, the Green vote will reduce |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 9:09:50 GMT
A report from inside the bunker
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on May 5, 2023 9:11:03 GMT
Here in sleepy Devon counting has only just started (at 10.00a.m) though given the sepulchral quiet yesterday at the booth, it may not take long.
Labour didn't campaign here at all though they did put up candidates. A good result for the Lib Dems would mean a. South hams Council moving to NOC, and b. a good platform to unite the ABCon vote at the GE.
I suspect some of Labour's last time vote will move behind the Heritage candidate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 9:14:00 GMT
NOC romping away. 🙂
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 9:19:15 GMT
Oh gawd. Davey on his rostrum being smug.🙄
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Post by James E on May 5, 2023 9:20:08 GMT
pjw1961Labour under-performance in Local Elections - here are the comparative figures: 2022 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4) 2021 29% v 34% in GE polls (-5) 2019 28% v 29% in GE polls (+1) 2018 35% v 39% in GE polls (-4) 2017 27% v 29% in GE polls (-2) I should add that the Conservatives underperform in LEs, too. Sometimes by more than Labour. And there is clearly a pattern that both Labour and the Conservatives underperform more when they are doing well. As an historical example of this, Labour underperformed by 9% and 10% in 1995 and 1996 when enjoying those huge polling leads under Blair.
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