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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 7:20:12 GMT
Good morning everyone.
Sun's out, Tories out.....
It's at times like this that I always reach for my inner Neil Kinnock.
😁👍
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 7:20:15 GMT
Patrick English from Yougov Yougov still underestimating the Lib Dems! |
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Post by moby on May 5, 2023 7:23:02 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 7:24:18 GMT
Aside from Steve's result of course, the Council I will be most intrigued by today is Bracknell Forest. Did the Labour/Lib Dem/Green pact work?
And a thought on Thurrock: If there was one Council where I was happy to see the Tories stay in charge, it is there - you broke it guys, you try and fix it.
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 7:26:53 GMT
The Medway result is one of the most spectacular for Lab so far:
Lab 33 (+13)
Con 22 (-11)
Others 4 (-2)
Although Lab held Medway from 1997-8, it slipped into NOC in 1998, and was won (amd held until today) by the Tories in 2003.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 7:27:40 GMT
Just had the local results and jib you are correct well done Results Barbara Brucelia Pesch Labour 423 Elected David Robert Taylor Labour 400 Not elected Faith Thornhill Liberal Democrats 190 Not elected Stephen Thornhill Liberal Democrats 161 Not elected Andrew Derek Williams Conservatives 434 Elected William James Wyatt-Lowe Conservatives 417 Not elected That's an improvement on the lib dems vote from last time and well done to Barbara , Andrew isn't the worst of Tories either. Unlucky David missing out by 17 Curse you Faith beat me again! Adeyfield East was the third safest ward for the Tories in the Borough so particularly impressive win for Labour. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 7:29:19 GMT
Sunak says the Conservative Party is making progress in “key election battlegrounds” Anymore victories like this and they will be wiped out Has he been taking lessons from Johnson in the lying department? Greg Hands quote from Guardian Politics Live: "There’s areas where Labour really should have don’t done better last night. We’ve actually gained councillors in seats which Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017, like Peterborough like in Sandwell, like in Bassetlaw. So I don’t think it’s a uniformly good picture for Labour"The three councils mentioned, net CON gains Peterborough: +2 Sandwell: +2 Bassetlaw: +2 You're perhaps new to politics but 'cherry picking' by politicians is not lying. As for "wiped out" then CON have already won 435 seats (as at time of writing) so perhaps you can accuse an actual liar of lying. |
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Post by moby on May 5, 2023 7:31:49 GMT
Has he been taking lessons from Johnson in the lying department? Greg Hands quote from Guardian Politics Live: "There’s areas where Labour really should have don’t done better last night. We’ve actually gained councillors in seats which Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017, like Peterborough like in Sandwell, like in Bassetlaw. So I don’t think it’s a uniformly good picture for Labour"The three councils mentioned, net CON gains Peterborough: +2 Sandwell: +2 Bassetlaw: +2 You're perhaps new to politics but 'cherry picking' by politicians is not lying. As for "wiped out" then well, a massive big of exaggeration isn't technically lying either I suppose.  Didn't Greg Hands formerly support Boris Johnson as well. Lying will therefore go well with the territory. /photo/1 |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 7:32:52 GMT
A quick note on why Medway matters. It's one of those relatively rare direct Tory/Lab contests amongst predominantly working class voters.
Perhaps others will be able to explain why Lab can make headway in this north Kent constituency, but not in its southern Essex counterparts across the water.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 7:36:52 GMT
Just had the local results and jib you are correct well done Results Barbara Brucelia Pesch Labour 423 Elected David Robert Taylor Labour 400 Not elected Faith Thornhill Liberal Democrats 190 Not elected Stephen Thornhill Liberal Democrats 161 Not elected Andrew Derek Williams Conservatives 434 Elected William James Wyatt-Lowe Conservatives 417 Not elected That's an improvement on the lib dems vote from last time and well done to Barbara , Andrew isn't the worst of Tories either. Unlucky David missing out by 17 Curse you Faith beat me again! What do you think the result would have been if the two LDEM candidates hadn't stood in your ward? As it was LAB only narrowly took one seat by 6 votes. If just 35 of the people who voted for either of the Thornhill LDEMs had voted Taylor LAB then CON wouldn't have won one of the two seats in your ward. IIRC the term for people who enable CON to win seats is "Tory enabler" So you've gifted jib the ability to call you a "Tory enabler" forever more |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 7:40:40 GMT
Didn't Greg Hands formerly support Boris Johnson as well. Lying will therefore go well with the territory. Do you want to go down that route? Who did Starmer once formerly support - as a senior member of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet and even describing Corbyn as a "friend" (or perhaps Starmer actually meant to say "fiend") |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 7:43:09 GMT
This didn't age well
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Post by alec on May 5, 2023 7:43:41 GMT
Ah! Trevor's up, and providing timely warnings on interpreting charts and correlations. It must have been an absolutely shite night for the blues then.  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 7:44:46 GMT
Bizarre robotic response from Sunak apparently this means the public are 100% behind his priorities!
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 7:46:41 GMT
Chairmen of defeated political parties at election time are not really the best sources of rational, accurate or objective commentary on that result.
Suffice to say that Greg Hands thoughts on the current local elections are to be consigned to the filing cabinet labelled; "Additions to the Gaiety of the Nation."
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 7:48:13 GMT
Update locally with just 15 out of 51 wards declared the Tories have already lost too many councillors to remain in office at the council.
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2023 7:51:37 GMT
@trevor I think you're underestimating Joe Public's ability to interpret these local results and vote appropriately at the general election.
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Post by bardin1 on May 5, 2023 7:54:04 GMT
Just had the local results and jib you are correct well done Results Barbara Brucelia Pesch Labour 423 Elected David Robert Taylor Labour 400 Not elected Faith Thornhill Liberal Democrats 190 Not elected Stephen Thornhill Liberal Democrats 161 Not elected Andrew Derek Williams Conservatives 434 Elected William James Wyatt-Lowe Conservatives 417 Not elected That's an improvement on the lib dems vote from last time and well done to Barbara , Andrew isn't the worst of Tories either. Unlucky David missing out by 17 Curse you Faith beat me again! Adeyfield East was the third safest ward for the Tories in the Borough so particularly impressive win for Labour. Looks like when Faith is PM you will be feeding the cat and staying up late at no.10 to make her a cuppa when she gets back Well done for putting yourself forward |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 7:54:21 GMT
More from Curtice, this time in the Telegraph, make of it what you will:
Polling expert: Tories have 'done badly' but Labour having to 'share the spoils'
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said the it was clear that the Tories have "done badly" at the local elections but while Labour has made gains the party is having to "share the spoils" with other parties.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly. Not just in terms of the fact they have already lost 200 seats but they might, although I emphasise might, end up losing 1,000 by the end of today despite their hopes that that wouldn’t be the case."
Sir John said that detailed voting data for some of the council wards overnight showed that the Tory vote share this time around was actually down a point on May 2019.
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 7:58:27 GMT
Update locally with just 15 out of 51 wards declared the Tories have already lost too many councillors to remain in office at the council. The LDs clearly making a move beyond the South Coast and M4 corridors. It would still be extraordinary if they take Hertfordshire though. What are your sources saying about Surrey? |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2023 7:58:33 GMT
Looks like Rishi's Repair Shop is very short of customers.
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 8:01:14 GMT
More from Curtice, this time in the Telegraph, make of it what you will: Polling expert: Tories have 'done badly' but Labour having to 'share the spoils'
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said the it was clear that the Tories have "done badly" at the local elections but while Labour has made gains the party is having to "share the spoils" with other parties.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly. Not just in terms of the fact they have already lost 200 seats but they might, although I emphasise might, end up losing 1,000 by the end of today despite their hopes that that wouldn’t be the case."
Sir John said that detailed voting data for some of the council wards overnight showed that the Tory vote share this time around was actually down a point on May 2019.
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."Seems a fair analysis (thus far) to me, although he needs to properly explain "swing" in multi-party politics. |
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Post by pete on May 5, 2023 8:04:46 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w, could just mean tactical voting is coming more to the fore?
If so, how many Lib Dems will go back to the Tories in a GE?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 8:07:16 GMT
More from Curtice, this time in the Telegraph, make of it what you will: Polling expert: Tories have 'done badly' but Labour having to 'share the spoils'
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said the it was clear that the Tories have "done badly" at the local elections but while Labour has made gains the party is having to "share the spoils" with other parties.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly. Not just in terms of the fact they have already lost 200 seats but they might, although I emphasise might, end up losing 1,000 by the end of today despite their hopes that that wouldn’t be the case."
Sir John said that detailed voting data for some of the council wards overnight showed that the Tory vote share this time around was actually down a point on May 2019.
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."Given that is Curtice in the Telegraph, it fits with the idea that he tailors his message to his employer. He will know the well rehearsed reasons why Labour local election performances don't match GE opinion polling leads. In reality this one is looking exceptionally good. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 8:09:23 GMT
Has he been taking lessons from Johnson in the lying department? Greg Hands quote from Guardian Politics Live: "There’s areas where Labour really should have don’t done better last night. We’ve actually gained councillors in seats which Jeremy Corbyn won in 2017, like Peterborough like in Sandwell, like in Bassetlaw. So I don’t think it’s a uniformly good picture for Labour"The three councils mentioned, net CON gains Peterborough: +2 Sandwell: +2 Bassetlaw: +2 You're perhaps new to politics but 'cherry picking' by politicians is not lying. As for "wiped out" then CON have already won 435 seats (as at time of writing) so perhaps you can accuse an actual liar of lying. Grow up Trevor. I will be ignoring your pathetic trolling from now on. I suggest you likewise ignore me. The site will be better for it. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 8:09:27 GMT
Just had the local results and jib you are correct well done Results Barbara Brucelia Pesch Labour 423 Elected David Robert Taylor Labour 400 Not elected Faith Thornhill Liberal Democrats 190 Not elected Stephen Thornhill Liberal Democrats 161 Not elected Andrew Derek Williams Conservatives 434 Elected William James Wyatt-Lowe Conservatives 417 Not elected That's an improvement on the lib dems vote from last time and well done to Barbara , Andrew isn't the worst of Tories either. Unlucky David missing out by 17 Curse you Faith beat me again! Adeyfield East was the third safest ward for the Tories in the Borough so particularly impressive win for Labour. congrats on improving the vote, Steve. And it does add some extra excitement when board-members are standing |
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Post by moby on May 5, 2023 8:09:35 GMT
Didn't Greg Hands formerly support Boris Johnson as well. Lying will therefore go well with the territory. Do you want to go down that route? Who did Starmer once formerly support - as a senior member of Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet and even describing Corbyn as a "friend" (or perhaps Starmer actually meant to say "fiend") Something I've never understood about you is how you could have ever have supported Boris Johnson. We all knew what he was and yet you supported him. Political partisanship is totally understandable but what you did here is support a corrupt liar. Whataboutery about Starmer doesn't wash either. He can be accused, just like every politician can, over shifting his position on the issues of the day but Johnson was always on a totally different level of culpability. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 8:11:22 GMT
More from Curtice, this time in the Telegraph, make of it what you will: Polling expert: Tories have 'done badly' but Labour having to 'share the spoils'
Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said the it was clear that the Tories have "done badly" at the local elections but while Labour has made gains the party is having to "share the spoils" with other parties.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The clear message of the night is indeed that the Conservatives have done badly. Not just in terms of the fact they have already lost 200 seats but they might, although I emphasise might, end up losing 1,000 by the end of today despite their hopes that that wouldn’t be the case."
Sir John said that detailed voting data for some of the council wards overnight showed that the Tory vote share this time around was actually down a point on May 2019.
He said: "All of that is unambiguously bad news for the Conservatives. The slightly more difficult thing for the Labour Party is that yes, it has hit some of its targets and it has made significant gains already, [but] it is having to share the spoils with other opposition parties.
"And in particular, the one niggle the Labour Party will really have I think about these results if it continues is that yes, the swing in the local elections is almost what you would expect from the national polls but not quite."Given that is Curtice in the Telegraph, it fits with the idea that he tailors his message to his employer. He will know the well rehearsed reasons why Labour local election performances don't match GE opinion polling leads. In reality this one is looking exceptionally good. Well I think the Telegraph were relaying what he said on the Beeb? But he could still have been tailoring the message of course! |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2023 8:12:04 GMT
Apologies steve. I got my Herfordshire authorities mixed-up. You were of course talking of Dacorum. East Herts is also becoming a huge story as the Greens are having an extraordinary morning. The Tories also lost seats in Hertsmere. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 8:13:21 GMT
Also beware "correlations". Lots of ways to spin the fairly narrow range in LABs % within the usual bar chart analysis. More young people have degrees these days correlates with a/ more young people being ABCON b/ areas where it is often difficult to get affordable housing c/ even correlates with Brexit, for those still obsessed with that ? Have to say, conservative USP under Thatcher was to favour the middle class and wealthy at the expense of the working class. Labour then were much more identified with the traditional working class, which has been shrinking steadily. Conservatives problem is that their policies have now had the effect of entrenching wealth in the hands of those already wealthy. At the exxpense of just about everyone starting out in life, whose chances of becoming wealthy are therefore greatly reduced. As the already wealty have aged, they are not being replaced leaving more and more people in the younger segment locked out of wealth, which to a distrubingly large extent has become identified with home ownership, though also assets ownership in general. The appeal of Brexit was hugely one to nationalism and nostalgia. a return to the good old days of empire where britain would reign supreme unshackled by links to anyone else. It was a dream, which the rich can afford and the poor cannot because it is fundamentally a lie. Leave voters overwhelmingly believed brexit would not affect them financially, and remain voters overwhelmingly believed it would affect them negatively. 'Its the economy, stupid.' And so since there are virtually no areas where housing is affordable (b), all young people have been driven away by this conservative policy. The miracle is that labour has not been identified with it too, because they really arent very pro housebulding either. Degrees? Both parties have conspired to make these essential to getting a decent job, pointlessly because most people will never use the knowledge in those degrees. And very expensively in terms both of debt incurred but also three years lost on the working income ladder. Surprising students are unhappy about that? Hardly! Libs in 2010 opposed tuition fees, or their rises. Abandoned that when went into coalition. Sooooo stupid since they were floating on those student votes. Con understood at least that if you offered leavers brexit to buy their votes, they did have to deliver. Although they too had to be dragged to it kicking and screaming after stalling brexit for three years after the vote. Politicians do love to offer stuff they would rather not deliver. Plymouth just went labour. It seems a significant reason was the trees chopped down overnight by the previous conservative administration to facilitate redevelopment. labour have apparently promised now to retain the remaining trees, and it seems those trees which were chopped down have not been cleared away because birds were found to be nesting there, and it is illegal to distrub nesting birds. However, at the time this all happened labour had not opposed the felling, it has simply jumped in now to benefit from the conservatives unpopular move. Its unclear whether enough trees were cut to allow whatever development labour was supporting now to go ahead, working round those that remain. Deeply cynical behaviour.
The young are said to be more politically apathetic than the old, less likely to vote. Given the above and labour essentially agreeing with con on so many issues unpopular to the young and against their interests, its hardly surprising if said youth are not turning out to vote labour. In describing voters as ABCON, well yes its con in power at the moment doing so much against the interests of the majority of the population, but its also true labour do not oppose most of those measures. So no, I think ABCON is wrong. Its the polices youth dont like, and the problem for them is a choice between labour who arent much better but might win, and libs or greens or the odd other who have more attractive policies but poor chances. Plus of course the libs still recent betrayal.
Polling normally does not capture the true view of those eligible to vote. It concentrates on people who actually vote and ignores the views of abstainers. Most people in the UK are not happy to support any existing party. Those that do mostly do so for lack of any other choice.
Who mght I vote for next time? Its a choice between lab who i suspect will win, and who will be the strong contender if not. And the libs who will have better policies, but the lib vote might allow con to win. But lab are pretty awful in terms of policies I want. Where is the promise to rejoin? Wheres the support for Ukraine? Wheres the policies to retake national control of essential utilities and end the drain of cash from the poor to the rich they produce? Frankly, whatever happened to a sensible education policy which concentrated on improving school standards and stopped this nonsense of degrees for everyone. Get the basics right first. Close some of these universities. The whole education system is running on a shoestring. Quite an irony when Blair's slogan was education, education, education, but matters are now worse after another round of conservative cuts.
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