steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 3:56:47 GMT
Looks like a very good night for both Labour and the lib dems.
Early days but the substantial swing to Labour if projected to a general election while easily enough to make them the largest party might not be quite sufficient for a majority.
With the lib dems making significant gains this is obviously territory I would like to see play out.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 4:10:21 GMT
Regarding the Brexit impact , Tories making biggest losses in remain voting areas and Labour making smallest gains , the lib dems as might have been expected as the most outward looking eu friendly party are doing particularly well in remain voting areas, this is significant for the target seats at a general election.
* Update on that lib dems have just made substantial gains in heavily leave voting Brentwood in Essex moving the council to noc with equal number of seats as the Tories.
Sorry Jib
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 5:17:17 GMT
steveRe brexit voting areas, agree, quite stark differences
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 5:19:09 GMT
Early days but
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Post by jimjam on May 5, 2023 5:31:15 GMT
Neil, that would be a superb result for Labour and above my expectations which was 8% due to the modest poll widening in the last week to 10 days.
Early days of course but ...
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Post by wb61 on May 5, 2023 5:31:36 GMT
Not sure if this has been aired or not, but this, from David Starkey, needs to be given a bit of a kicking - www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/may/04/david-starkey-says-pm-uninterested-in-coronation-as-he-is-not-grounded-in-our-cultureI'm obviously no fan of our PM, who I see as on the less end of more or less useless, but to suggest the lack of interest in the monarchs coronation this weekend is because Sunak isn't really one of us is shameful stuff, especially when Starkey directly raises the issue of Sunak's religion in the matter. Starkey is one of those puffed up, self opinionated academic historians who know everything about history and have learned nothing from it. A GB News favourite, and it's not difficult to see why. It's hard to conclude anything other than Starkey is a straightforward bigot, hiding behind academic credentials, but it is still very sad to see this kind of nonsense being given an airing on British broadcast media. Sunak is a hopeless PM, but the fact that few are very bothered about the coronation is nothing to do with the colour of his skin or his religion. This is the danger of starting the culture war narrative.you cannot be sure who will be the next victim, |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 5:31:37 GMT
My younger son who works for an AI company tells me that chatGPT can sometimes be useful when he is asked to solve a specific software problem. It can offer leads to a potential solution much more quickly than a search engine. Surely it IS a search engine? I dont know how search engines work, but they are filtering content they have read on the internet and presenting what they think you will want to know? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 5:32:04 GMT
Locally in Dacorum
With just 8 of 51 wards called the Tories are already down three with the lib dems up 1 and well done to labour it's first local councillor since 2015
We're on course for largest party if not overall control.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 5:48:24 GMT
If Starmer-LAB don't do as well as expected then voter ID is the 'ready made' excuse (that is being pushed already) but perhaps the real reason is Starmer's lack of IDeology? There are straws in the wind that conservatives might be using this excuse. As I said before, there were fears this might impact labour more than con, but it isnt just about what groups might not already have acceptable ID. Its also about what proportion of a group tends to vote. Your average pensioner is a lot more likely to vote than the average student, for the sake of argument lets say 80% of pensioner and 20% of students. So if 80% of pensioners have ID but only 20% of students have ID, its possible everyone who wanted to vote would be prepared. If we now take onboard the idea that students are likely to be more organised than a batty pensioner, then it could turn out that those students who wanted to vote were indeed prepared, but the pensioners discover too late they can't find their driving license which anyway has a 30 year old bad photograph (you dont have to update them after a certain age). Cameron expected johnson to be part of the remain campaign, thats quite a leap by a leader. Many conservative MPs who obviously believe in EU membership are still pretending they dont. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 6:02:34 GMT
Revised prediction from @beyond_Topline
If anywhere near accurate thst would be a very bad night for the tories and a very good one for Labour and the lib-dems
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 6:06:27 GMT
Regarding the Brexit impact , Tories making biggest losses in remain voting areas and Labour making smallest gains , the lib dems as might have been expected as the most outward looking eu friendly party are doing particularly well in remain voting areas, this is significant for the target seats at a general election. * Update on that lib dems have just made substantial gains in heavily leave voting Brentwood in Essex moving the council to noc with equal number of seats as the Tories. Sorry Jib Is brentwood now affected by the fact brexit will end the UK car manufacturing industry, and it has had car manufacturing jobs? A lot of car workers were rather pro Brexit, i could never understand why because it was going to put them out of work. I would think they are now feeling betrayed and lied to. Might even be turning into rabid rejoiners. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 6:08:10 GMT
21% would be the highest lib dems vote share since 2010
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 6:10:58 GMT
News on Braintree (!!!) from the Beeb: ” Glum Tories in foreign secretary's constituencySimon Dedman BBC Essex political reporter A Conservative source tells me the party is in big trouble in Braintree, a council it has had a majority in since 2007.
One source used an expletive to describe the outlook there, saying the party could end up with councillor numbers in the "high teens".
The Tories currently have a majority and had 33 councillors going into this election.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly’s constituency is Braintree and a large part of Priti Patel’s Witham seat is within the borough”. Regarding the above that "Conservative source" was engaged in expectation managing, otherwise known as lying. The Conservatives were always likely to retain control of the council given the massively strong position they started with, as indeed they did, albeit with some damage inflicted. In fact if they hadn't managed to gain three seats it would have gone to NOC. The headline numbers with comparison to 2019 are: Conservative 26 (-8) - gained 3, lost 11 Labour 9 (+7) - Gained 8, lost 1 Green 4 (-2) - lost 2 Independent 7 (+4) - gained 4 Halstead Residents 3 (-1) - lost 1 Conservatives gained 1 from Labour and 2 from Greens and lost 7 to Labour and 4 to Independents Labour gained 7 from Con and 1 from Halstead Residents and lost 1 to Con Green lost two to Con Independents gained 4 from Con Halstead Res lost 1 to Labour As expected the Conservatives won the ward I was standing in but I am happy as I met the personal goal I had set myself - which was to get more votes than the highest ranked Labour candidate last time. More importantly, Labour gained seats in all the areas I actively worked in, including Braintree South where I live, so all in all the exercise was well worthwhile. I will provide some analysis in one further post and then you can all forget about Braintree for a while! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 6:19:27 GMT
Revised prediction from @beyond_Topline If anywhere near accurate thst would be a very bad night for the tories and a very good one for Labour and the lib-dems Not so good fo labour, surely? It is predicting con losses going about 3:2 to lab and lib. Not at all a ringing endorsement of labour. As mentioned by some already, in a general election that could be much better news for lab because they are likely to pick up lib votes in our FPP elections. But it implies the underlying support isnt great. It is a situation like we saw with the labour wipeout in Scotland to SNP, once SNP got above the tipping point labour suddenly vanished. If libs had not screwed up by supporting con in 2010, they could have been leading now in terms of seats picked up, and be on a really significant number of MPs. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 6:20:09 GMT
News on Braintree (!!!) from the Beeb: ” Glum Tories in foreign secretary's constituencyAs expected the Conservatives won the ward I was standing in but I am happy as I met the personal goal I had set myself - which was to get more votes than the highest ranked Labour candidate last time. More importantly, Labour gained seats in all the areas I actively worked in, including Braintree South where I live, so all in all the exercise was well worthwhile. I will provide some analysis in one further post and then you can all forget about Braintree for a while! Well done PJ, and I am happy enough to hear more about Braintree! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 6:23:38 GMT
Curious story about the coronation, and the proposed citizen's oath of fealty.
Dimbleby, who it seems was invited to the coronation by the king, this morning has been intervewed saying he cannot believe the king wanted anything of the sort.
Which could be construed that this idea had nothing at all to do with the king but was imposed by Rishi Sunak. Who gives the king his orders, and wanted to be sure every citizen would be required to obey the king, and therefore himself.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2023 6:25:07 GMT
Not looked at the detail, but the narrative aired this morning appears to be heavily running against the Conservatives. In many recent council election, we've woken to the view of a relative good performance for the blues, with that situation deteriorating as the later counts unfold. But the impression gets somewhat fixed of Labour under-performance. No idea what councils are still due to report and how bad that will get for Cons, but the narrative this morning is clearly bad for Cons, and whatever happens, I suspect it will be hard to shift.
I'd also say that the resurgence of the Lib Dems is great news for anyone who wants rid of the government.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2023 6:28:59 GMT
21% would be the highest lib dems vote share since 2010 Which is especially amazing since it seems it’s hard to find people who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010! Meanwhile over at the Telegraph: Lib Dems declare victory in Windsor & Maidenhead“ The Liberal Democrats have declared victory in Windsor and Maidenhead, with the party gaining control of the royal borough from the Tories.
A Lib Dem source described it as a "massive result" which "exceeded all expectations" as the party gained 13 seats.
The source said that "Conservative MPs across the Blue Wall will be looking over their shoulder at the Lib Dems this morning".” |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 6:29:10 GMT
Looks like the Tory voters heeded the advice.
"Stay home, save lives, protect the NHS'
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 5, 2023 6:33:18 GMT
news started off with some conservative council leaders who had personally lost their seats even though the general outcome wasnt as bad for con. I wonder if that was because they were the leader and so had some local recognition. So that people generally tribal conservatives specifically blamed them for bad things which had happened rather than the tribe as a whole.
Brexit has been going very badly. The government has been lucky in covid and the Ukraine war distracting attention, otherwise we could right now be in a conservate rout situation. But people may have started realising they were lied to by the conservative party in the Brexit campaign and are now suffereing as a result.
While people might not wish to admit they voted leave, they might be equally motivated to punish con for those lies.
Just a shame for lab it went along with brexit too.
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Post by jimjam on May 5, 2023 6:33:36 GMT
Apologies if already posted but I did skim a little last night having been out all day.
Looking for this mornings Techne it turns out they published a day early as below.
''
@techneuk
NEW: Labour lead by 15 in our weekly tracker of Westminster voting intention - their advantage +1 on last week.
Lab 44% (nc)
Con 29% (-1)
LibDem 11% (+2)
Reform 6% (nc)
Green 5% (nc)
SNP 3% (nc)
1,632 questioned on 2-3 May.
+/- 26-27 April.
Data - technetracker.co.uk pic.twitter.com/5x5WoK4lZw
04/05/2023, 22:01''
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 6:35:24 GMT
Patrick English from Yougov
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Post by jib on May 5, 2023 6:37:17 GMT
Regarding the Brexit impact , Tories making biggest losses in remain voting areas and Labour making smallest gains , the lib dems as might have been expected as the most outward looking eu friendly party are doing particularly well in remain voting areas, this is significant for the target seats at a general election. * Update on that lib dems have just made substantial gains in heavily leave voting Brentwood in Essex moving the council to noc with equal number of seats as the Tories. Sorry Jib Yeh right. This was the "Brexit Local Election". Commiserations on the Adeyfield East result but full credit for putting your money where your mouth is. At least only one Tory got in. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 6:43:04 GMT
Desperate stuff from the tories
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2023 7:03:27 GMT
Sunak says the Conservative Party is making progress in “key election battlegrounds”
Anymore victories like this and they will be wiped out
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 7:06:16 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 7:08:12 GMT
Some thoughts on Braintree:
1) Turnout - Just from the total numbers of votes I can see it is down everywhere. Three potential reasons spring to mind: (a) apathy - but there was also a lot of that in 2019 when both Tory and Labour were unpopular, (b) Tory voters choosing to sit this one out, (c) photo ID. What the effect of each is I can't begin to guess, but clearly (c) doesn't help. I had one lady say to me on the doorstep yesterday that she didn't intend to vote as she had no available ID.
2) Vote shares - I haven't crunched the numbers but it is again obvious that the Labour vote is significantly up right across the board. The low base limited seat gains but the trend is apparent. In contrast the Greens (and Lib Dems in the relatively few places they stood) lost ground - and seats in the Greens case, where in Witham North they fell from first to third place. This likely reflects the unpopularity of Labour in 2019 compared to now.
3) Independents gained 4 seats from the Tories, all up in the rural north west of the District - which happens to be where the Wethersfield ex-RAF base that is to be used to house asylum seekers/migrants is. I can't be certain that was the cause, but seems plausible. Incidentally the Greens and Independents had a formal pact and operated as one group on the previous Council, but that was when there was 6 Greens and 3 Independents. As it is now 4 Greens and 7 Indies I can see that falling apart.
4) Labour's targeting on the whole worked well. We won seats where we were trying to and 9 Councillors is a better result than expected. Having said that, the three split wards in Braintree and Bocking - each 1 Lab and 1 Con - (Bocking North and South and Braintree South) are a frustration. It could so easily have been 12 Labour Councillors. The margin of defeat in Bocking North was 14, In Bocking South 20 and Braintree South 13. Given the closeness of those three, perhaps the Tories voter suppression measures did have an impact?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2023 7:10:09 GMT
Sunak says the Conservative Party is making progress in “key election battlegrounds” Anymore victories like this and they will be wiped out Has he been taking lessons from Johnson in the lying department? |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 5, 2023 7:16:13 GMT
Also beware "correlations". Lots of ways to spin the fairly narrow range in LABs % within the usual bar chart analysis.
More young people have degrees these days correlates with
a/ more young people being ABCON
b/ areas where it is often difficult to get affordable housing
c/ even correlates with Brexit, for those still obsessed with that
?
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2023 7:16:27 GMT
jibOnly 8 out of 51 wards have been declared the Tories have lost 3 out of their 4 declared so far.I'm not at the count as I had to leave because of family reasons. As of my departure Adeyfield East hadn't been declared as they were still counting. It looked like Labour were ahead btw.But we looked like exceeding previous lib dems votes So if you know the result before they've finished counting perhaps you could let us all know as it would save us counting the actual votes!
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