pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 17:35:10 GMT
I don't think my son's interest in her has much to do with politics. There is a picture of her here (Young Adult Spokesman): heritageparty.org/about/Holy moly, scary stuff, I'd have a word with your son! Too.. many.. union.. flags... They are both adults - none of my business. Anyway she left me a message wishing me good luck with my election! She is standing in Chelmsford - they count tomorrow. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2023 17:37:03 GMT
Sir John Curtice, the mainstream media's go-to psephologist, intrigues me in many ways. I admire his polling erudition and quite like his professorial quirkiness and eccentricity. I'm a fan but have come to take a few grains of salt with his regular pronouncements. Put simply, I think he's in danger sometimes of becoming a bit of a media whore, subtly tailoring messages to suit particular audiences. Depending on who is commissioning his opinions, he sometimes leans in to polling interpretations that he might suspect his particular audience want to hear. For example, if writing in the Times, there will be subtle reasons for Tories to be cheerful in his commentary. In the New Statesman, on the other hand, there will be gentle succour for left leaning voters. Political opinion polls are notoriously full of data that can be interpreted very flexibly. There's usually something in them for everyone! I don't particularly blame Curtice for this flashing of ankle; it's how a lot of mainstream media political commentary play s out. However, I'd take his recent "Labour need to win by at least 10 points today" in the context of knowing for which audience Curtice was catering for. Or, maybe, who was editing his essay too! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 17:37:08 GMT
Tory voters. "Stay home, save lives, protect the NHS'' Seen printed off and pinned to a tree in Braintree today. Apparently its a 'meme' doing the rounds. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 17:39:26 GMT
Looks pretty sensible, though I only skimmed it. It appears to be what used to be called Conservatism. Good to know that some young people have their heads screwed on. For me, it is mostly right wing (even far right) libertarianist rather than mainstream old-school conservatism. I really cannot see conservatives from Macmillan, Hesiltine or Major signing up to such an agenda. There are also a few ideas usually associated with the far left or even anarchist types (eg, digs at 'big pharma') and a few, frankly bizarre ideas such as re-opening coal mines for electricity. The reason they don't like big pharma is that they are anti-vax conspiracy theorists. It was founded by a former UKIP member of the London Assembly. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 17:44:34 GMT
neiljI try not to get too excited these days . It's bad for the knees. Let's wait and see the lib dems are starting from a strong position in 2019 locals but I expect there will be gains.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 4, 2023 17:45:45 GMT
pjw1961It's just possible I might have started that one,fame at last.
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Post by EmCat on May 4, 2023 17:59:03 GMT
Just voted I was struck by how archaic the process is - pencil and a list then shove it in a box to be counted by hand! I don't have much problem with photo id myself, but what would be the problem about voting (in a booth) digitally, then we'd know the result as soon as polling closed. Is there some reason I'm not aware of? If there's a power cut, you can still vote with paper. Ensuring the electronic tally can't be tampered with is harder than many realise No doubt others can furnish other reasons too. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 4, 2023 18:08:56 GMT
For me, it is mostly right wing (even far right) libertarianist rather than mainstream old-school conservatism. I really cannot see conservatives from Macmillan, Hesiltine or Major signing up to such an agenda. There are also a few ideas usually associated with the far left or even anarchist types (eg, digs at 'big pharma') and a few, frankly bizarre ideas such as re-opening coal mines for electricity. The reason they don't like big pharma is that they are anti-vax conspiracy theorists. It was founded by a former UKIP member of the London Assembly. As well as anti 5G conspiracy theorists and climate change deniers. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2023 18:10:00 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 18:11:04 GMT
You do have to be careful with reports coming in from the political parties, but at the moment on my strengthometer of confidence it appears the lib-dems think they are doing very well, Labour ok and the tories badly Noa Hoffmanns tweets are particularly interesting Just one Example here The random anecdotal feedback from Braintree is that I was talking to one of our candidates who has been a Councillor on past occasions and also lost the seat and so has a good deal of experience of what public reaction means. He felt the level of anti-Labour hostility was significantly lower than previously, positivity toward Labour was higher and the reverse was true in both cases for the Tories. I am hopeful that the party will make some gains. However I crunch the numbers based on national polling 8 seats in total seems to be the upper limit - so 4 to 6 gains leading to 6 to 8 seats would be a very good performance. I expect the Conservatives to retain control of the council. |
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Post by superted on May 4, 2023 18:15:56 GMT
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Post by hireton on May 4, 2023 18:19:33 GMT
Latest TechneUK Westminster VI:
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2023 18:24:20 GMT
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 18:30:35 GMT
It is an utter disgrace, but of course the current Tories (and their cheerleaders and apologists) have no shame. I have reminded every one of the 100+ people I have spoken to today of the need to take ID. Edit: there is a theory that this might hurt the Tories more than they expect as older people often lack photo ID. However, for me, that is not the point. Democracy in this country is in a fragile state; it needs to be nurtured and grown not played with for partisan advantage. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 4, 2023 18:40:25 GMT
Interesting to see polls coming together after previous wide divergences among some
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 19:17:23 GMT
There are plenty of people richer than me but I don't want their money. There are plenty poorer and I give to charity which is a form of redistribution of wealth. I just don't believe in forcible redistribution of wealth, which perhaps you do? On that basis wouldn't that mean there should be no tax in your system save for items such as defence? As most other tax receipts are, as I understand, to a greater or lesser extent redistributive. I am not aware of any party that does not subscribe to redistribution, the argument is about the extent of such redistribution. I didn't say any party supported it. I was simply stating my view. And of course the tax take would have to be comparable overall (though gradually reducing I hope), so other things would have to change. |
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Post by Mark on May 4, 2023 19:18:56 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 19:27:05 GMT
For me, it is mostly right wing (even far right) libertarianist rather than mainstream old-school conservatism. I really cannot see conservatives from Macmillan, Hesiltine or Major signing up to such an agenda. There are also a few ideas usually associated with the far left or even anarchist types (eg, digs at 'big pharma') and a few, frankly bizarre ideas such as re-opening coal mines for electricity. The reason they don't like big pharma is that they are anti-vax conspiracy theorists. It was founded by a former UKIP member of the London Assembly. I did say I'd only skimmed it! That's the trouble with parties. A lot of them have some policies that I like, but then there's always something I consider crazy - especially with the smaller parties. |
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Post by JohnC on May 4, 2023 19:34:00 GMT
No probs, I know it's the modern jargon. You're right about it being another at risk job though. A friend of mine has been struggling to write some c++ code to interface to an API. He got ChatGPT to have a go. It didn't finish, because he was just using the free test version but he said the code looked ok as far as it got. I haven't tried it out yet because I think it asked for my email address and I don't want an AI to have that (although it probably already has). That's one of the most worrying aspects - the opacity of the process. Apparently even the developers aren't always sure how a particular result has been achieved. There’s some stuff on YouTube about it, e.g. on C++ Weekly (“can chatGPT replace C++ programmers”) youtu.be/TIDA6pvjEE0and someone trying to use chatGPT to write a game in C++ youtu.be/6rnLQbnQZ08Not 100% sure but I think I’ve seen about some AI versions that have more transparency but can’t seem to find anything at the mo’… My younger son who works for an AI company tells me that chatGPT can sometimes be useful when he is asked to solve a specific software problem. It can offer leads to a potential solution much more quickly than a search engine. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 19:42:13 GMT
There’s some stuff on YouTube about it, e.g. on C++ Weekly (“can chatGPT replace C++ programmers”) youtu.be/TIDA6pvjEE0and someone trying to use chatGPT to write a game in C++ youtu.be/6rnLQbnQZ08Not 100% sure but I think I’ve seen about some AI versions that have more transparency but can’t seem to find anything at the mo’… My younger son who works for an AI company tells me that chatGPT can sometimes be useful when he is asked to solve a specific software problem. It can offer leads to a potential solution much more quickly than a search engine. Indeed, in some respects it kind of is a more advanced search engine, that can pull bits together for you, bits of code from around the net. Which is why there are some copyright issues! Incidentally, I have been into looking into what’s next for GPT 5 and beyond*, and access to data, in particular high quality data, is a limiting factor for the AI. They reckon they have up to ten times more to access, which they may exhaust in a few years time.** After that, progress slows down, as new data gets added at a rate of about 10% a year or summat. But you can improve the AI further by retraining on existing data. And improving the algorithms etc. * a particular thing they are working towards is making it embodied, putting it in robots, though not sure if that’ll be a big deal in version 5 ** even so, ten times more data can be quite an upgrade… |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 19:43:26 GMT
JohnCI wonder how the human brain will be affected by all this. The brain can strengthen certain pathways when it is used a lot in particular ways - e.g. I believe a study was done on London cabbies who had done 'the knowledge' and it showed that a particular part of their brain was more developed than in most people. With satnavs and calculator functions on phones and now AI will human brains atrophy? In the recent past, specific software problems were solved by thinking about them. Mapreading was a basic skill that most people could do. Now even if I do a simple sum in my head people look at me as though I'm some kind of wizard. It's quite worrying. ------------ Still I suppose if our future robot overlords give us nice food and let us exercise on a little wheel we'll be ok. 😁
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Post by bardin1 on May 4, 2023 19:49:10 GMT
JohnC I wonder how the human brain will be affected by all this. The brain can strengthen certain pathways when it is used a lot in particular ways - e.g. I believe a study was done on London cabbies who had done 'the knowledge' and it showed that a particular part of their brain was more developed than in most people. With satnavs and calculator functions on phones and now AI will human brains atrophy? In the recent past, specific software problems were solved by thinking about them. Mapreading was a basic skill that most people could do. Now even if I do a simple sum in my head people look at me as though I'm some kind of wizard. It's quite worrying. ------------ Still I suppose if our future robot overlords give us nice food and let us exercise on a little wheel we'll be ok. 😁 I think before that happens all young people's heads will be pizza shaped.... |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 4, 2023 19:52:51 GMT
Still I suppose if our future robot overlords give us nice food and let us exercise on a little wheel we'll be ok. 😁 I do that already, I’m hoping for a bit more tbh |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 19:57:04 GMT
The reason they don't like big pharma is that they are anti-vax conspiracy theorists. It was founded by a former UKIP member of the London Assembly. I did say I'd only skimmed it! That's the trouble with parties. A lot of them have some policies that I like, but then there's always something I consider crazy - especially with the smaller parties. Somewhat strange that a party whose leader came 15th in the London Mayor elections - way behind 'nutters' like Laurence Fox, Rejoin.EU, Count Binface and Corbyn (Piers) - is getting so much attention. AFAIK (ie wiki) the only candidate they are posting in the LEs is in 1 ward in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole. Although might be a few other 'no hopers' elsewhere. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritage_Party_(UK)However, as you point out then most parties will have some policies that appeal to some people but not to others. A different way to phrase the same question is can anyone honestly go through any manifesto from any party and say they have 0% of policies that they'd agree with? Also can anyone say they've ever agreed with every single policy* from a specific party? If folks want to read Heritage Party Manifesto then: heritageparty.org/manifesto/'Nothing' parties can sometimes become bigger parties but I'll give very good odds to say Heritage Party continue to be even less successful than the Rejoin.EU party. * Exception for Starmer-LAB perhaps given depending on which day of the week and which location Schrödinger** Starmer is in then he can be both for and against anything and everything.
** Starmer goes quantum with Schrödinger’s tuition feeswww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/02/keir-starmer-labour-tuition-fees-politics-sketch |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 4, 2023 19:59:41 GMT
A political earthquake may be taking place in Sedgeberrow, I'm led to believe.
I'm heading for the count tonight. On the basis of estimated turnout, a declaration is expected at 10.15pm. Lib Dem activists are walking around the village with broad grins apparently. Excitement is building.
Have I finally voted for a winning candidate, I wonder?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 20:02:44 GMT
JohnC I wonder how the human brain will be affected by all this. The brain can strengthen certain pathways when it is used a lot in particular ways - e.g. I believe a study was done on London cabbies who had done 'the knowledge' and it showed that a particular part of their brain was more developed than in most people. With satnavs and calculator functions on phones and now AI will human brains atrophy? In the recent past, specific software problems were solved by thinking about them. Mapreading was a basic skill that most people could do. Now even if I do a simple sum in my head people look at me as though I'm some kind of wizard. It's quite worrying. ------------ Still I suppose if our future robot overlords give us nice food and let us exercise on a little wheel we'll be ok. 😁 There is every chance something of the sort will happen. Apparently when few people were literate and things were rarely written down, humans made much more use of memory and were much better at using it. The bards could memorise huge long poems, even lists of genealogy of the princely families for generations and reproduce it perfectly. Humans still have the potential capability to do that (like those odd people who memorise Pi to vast numbers of places) but very few do, because the information is so readily available. The result is our general memory skills have deteriorated as well. You are certainly right about mental arithmetic. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 4, 2023 20:10:40 GMT
A political earthquake may be taking place in Sedgeberrow, I'm led to believe. I'm heading for the count tonight. On the basis of estimated turnout, a declaration is expected at 10.15pm. Lib Dem activists are walking around the village with broad grins apparently. Excitement is building. Have I finally voted for a winning candidate, I wonder? In order to demonstrate that I have no sense of humour (  ) I will pedantically point out that you will not get the result at 10.15 even if your's are the only votes cast. This is because the ballot box(es) have to be taken to the count, the seals checked then opened and then the votes tallied and compared to the voting lists before anyone so much as counts a vote (the verification process). The estimated timescale in Braintree is: Verification commences 10.00pm Individual Ward Counts commence midnight approx. |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2023 20:12:00 GMT
pjw1961 We still used to have to memorise poetry at primary school, though less so than the previous generation. My mother could reel off word-perfect poems such as 'Abou Ben Adhem' and 'The Green Eye of the little Yellow God' well into her 90s. EDIT: As it's election night I won't ramble on about this any more on the main thread. Maybe the technical thread if anyone wants to pursue it?
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Post by leftieliberal on May 4, 2023 20:18:49 GMT
So if you only had a choice between Foot or Thatcher in the era, with associated policies at the time, who do you pick Leftie? Anybody? I voted SDP in 1983. The joke in those days was "What's the opposite of nepotism? Being Paul Foot's uncle". 'Nuff said. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on May 4, 2023 20:32:07 GMT
If Starmer-LAB don't do as well as expected then voter ID is the 'ready made' excuse (that is being pushed already) but perhaps the real reason is Starmer's lack of IDeology? First time that I can remember that a LOTO has abandoned all ideology before ever even becoming PM - the 'ideology' usually only turns to 'pragmatism' once in power.
Of course then if LAB do quite well then it can be spun as "despite voter ID" that LAB did well and Starmer should start measuring up the curtains in #10.
CON have set expectations very low and got the 'last year' (ie Boris and Truss) excuse ready so Rishi only has 'upside' surprise for < -1,000, "despite Boris and the Truss error"
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) I will pedantically point out that you will not get the result at 10.15 even if your's are the only votes cast. This is because the ballot box(es) have to be taken to the count, the seals checked then opened and then the votes tallied and compared to the voting lists before anyone so much as counts a vote (the verification process). The estimated timescale in Braintree is: